Lecture on XAU-USD Analysis

Introduction

• Discussing the start of 2021, new fiscal year, and new market timelines.
• Importance of higher time frame analysis down to intraday time frames.
• Focus on historical repetition, current market fundamentals, volatility, and structure.
• Reminder to analyze markets patiently after holiday slowdown.

Gold (XAU-USD) Yearly Analysis

• Previous Year Review:
  • Strong close with buyers in control due to market fears (e.g., COVID-19, Iran war potentials, low US interest rates).
  • Historical behavior post-financial crises (e.g., 2008) showed exhaustion after peaks.
• Current Year Outlook:
  • Awareness of potential market optimism due to vaccines and recovery.
  • New yearly candle hasn’t created a lower wick yet and is pushing to grab liquidity.
  • Historical analysis shows only one year without a lower wick.

Potential for Market Correction

• Indicators of Correction:
  • Market optimism could lead to bearish sentiment and correction.
  • Potential for lower wick creation if market fails to break previous highs.
  • Intraday analysis shows bullish trends, but higher time frame analysis suggests caution.

Technical and Fundamental Analysis

• Current Fundamental Catalysts:
  • COVID-19 and vaccines remain in focus.
  • Potential for economic recovery affecting gold’s momentum.
• Technical Signals:
  • Historical repetition indicates potential for price correction.
  • Intraday trends show bullish momentum currently.

Market Timing and Economic Cycles

• Gold’s position in economic cycles akin to post-2008 financial crash.
• Potential Scenarios:
  • Market fear could push gold to new highs if new catalysts arise.
  • Economic recovery would likely lead to a market correction and potential sell-off.

Trading Strategy

• Higher Timeframe Strategy:
  • Gold trading range from 1750 to 2075 identified for 2021.
  • Caution for long-term trades until clear economic recovery or fear catalysts emerge.
• Intraday Strategy:
  • Monitor intraday trends and technical signals closely.
  • Avoid speculative trades and focus on validated market movements.

Conclusion

• Gold’s market analysis requires attention to both technical and fundamental factors.
• Continuous observation of intraday movements and macroeconomic indicators essential.
• A balanced approach to potential historical repetition and market cycles advised.