NASDAQ Back Testing Session

all right so uh in this little back testing session study session I just kind of want to go over NASDAQ um now I will say as a disclaimer for you guys this is going to have uh pack trading models pack trade group specific stuff okay AKA how we get and actually get into the markets engage with price AKA my bearish and bullish leoc CTIC distributions which is my little green and red wolves but but you can use this concept and apply it to however you want to enter the markets okay there's a difference between concept model strategy there's a difference between a strategy and an entry model okay there's two completely different things because a model is what gives you the foundation of however you see price and then your entry model okay or your entry method however you want to call it the semantics don't matter however you want to objectively get into a trade that is going to be specific to you and so I think one thing that I want to start off with is a lot of people get this confused when I go over how to trade with using the midnight opening price they get kind of confused with the fact that they think that how I engage with price is how they're supposed to engage with price and how they're supposed to get it doesn't matter right if you have a 65 to 68% edge of being correct that edge can be applied however you want to engage but for me and the pack trade group we have our own proprietary way of getting into the trade and and waiting for distribution to be on our side for whatever side we take either a long or a short but that's not to say that how you get in is better or worse it's just it allows us to objectively have a uniform way of engaging with price and so while that's out of the way um the first thing I want to go over is midnight open and again why is midnight open so effective okay why is why is this magic little line so good I have to give you guys context because we can't just get into this if you don't understand the simple concept so just like on a one minute candle right if I go to bitcoin right now and I go to just let's just go to a random Futures Bitcoin contract I don't know go to binance and if I go to the one minute chart the only reason I'm going to bitcoin is because it's a weekend markets are closed for anything else so if I go on this one minute candle do you notice that this these one minute candles they have a very high probability no matter what one minute candle you watch when they're bouncing and they're opening and then they're going here and then they're going here and they're trying to decide do they want to open and close bullish or bearish right they're opening here see how it's fluctuating it's going bullish but we have 50 seconds left it could come back down and then retest its opening price to then go lower all we are doing when we are viewing the midnight opening price is we are just watching and taking advantage of this fluctuation from this candle going from here back to the opening price and then seeing if it wants to make its mind up to go and and close bearish at the end of the day or if it wants to come over here and you know make a dogee candle right where you have giant Wicks on both sides and then maybe it just wants to open and then close exactly where it opened from or maybe it wants to use this a support that day and then continue going up like who who cares right the the main thing is why is this New York opening price so effective it's because you have that fluctuation of that daily candle and all we are doing is we're taking high probability uh trading decisions of when this candle was literally just going from here to here or from here to here that's it right we're just doing a high probability bet as you could say and so now going back to inq there's a few a few ways that you can kind of dissect NASDAQ and then see see it for what it is in terms of high probabilities versus extreme High probabilities right because I don't really want to say high pro A+ B+ whatever setup it's just there are objective ways that you can use this to have higher risks uh higher risk trades versus just normal risk trades and a lot of people in the pack trade group they already know this and I tell people this all the time that the way I use and view price and also engage with price I like to have an entry a risk entry concept and then I like to have a confirmation entry concept and what I mean by that and why I think it's so effective is when you have a risk entry it's it's carrying a little bit more risk but it could create a bigger reward and so you run the risk of losing the trade a little bit a little bit higher but the reward is also exponentially higher than the risk that you're taking right and then a confirmation entry where the the reward is more consistent but less than that of a risk entry but you have a higher probability of being correct you have a higher win rate strike rate however you want to use it right and so you kind of as a as a Trader you have to balance the two because th those two ways of engaging with price they they they mean a lot and so when I take trades when I use this midnight opening concept when I when I trade using this there's different moments in the markets that you can have a normal just risk entry and there's moments that you can have confir entries where you have more things going for you and you're taking your time you're not trying to catch the top or bottom and you just ride the wave and as you guys notice that's that's mostly how I trade I trade just waiting for the confirmation right I'm not trying to pick the top like in this case here this is midnight open this yellow line I'm not trying to catch the top of this move and go all the way down or ride it here I'm not trying to do that all I'm trying to do is wait for the confirmation AK my objective way of viewing distribution uh of price and then I'm I'm writing it for 25 points right here we're above midnight short right here on this 810 Candle on the on the 3r of July and 25 points here and I think I wasn't actually no this was a trade yeah this was a trading day was a half day but either way um and that's all I do right but there's also scenarios and ways that I've been kind of studying here with NASDAQ that also can have a little bit of a better Advantage you can have a little bit of more risk you can have you can carry out a little bit more uh higher probability price movements and then this also applies to how we in the pack trade Group trade distributions AKA if we have uh on any given day like let's say let me make this table just a little bit bigger and you'll see it if for example on the 3D of July on Wednesday in the AM session you can see here Wednesday am session we had an objective 78% in the past four Wednesdays of creating at least 78% price distri distribution did we hit 78 price distribution yes we did we had a minimum minimum this is not calling a top or a bottom or whatever but a minimum price distribution of 78% so that lets us know that I can take either side of the market trading this until we reach this threshold of 78% and so that is what I would consider a risk entry because as you are trading the fluctuation of this daily of this not daily candle the flu tion of this am session just like I do with the fluctuation of the midnight open I'm also taking and carrying inherent risk if I'm not doing the extremes of either side right so if I'm trading the 78% price distribution and I'm taking a short here long here whatever until this gets met there is inherent risk that I short when a trend starts to go up or I long when a trend starts to go down because we're just trading a 10-point bite side price movement until that extreme is created and so what I tell people in this in the pack trade group especially is that there's two ways that you can even play the average distribution of the market you can have the risk entry the higher risk of trading the expansion of this or if you don't want to carry that risk if you don't want to trade um and and you just have to put in the back of your mind you're not going to have setups every single day but if you don't want to have that inherent risk of trading the fluctuation and the expansion of this C of this session then you can just wait for when price hits the extreme of either side and then you have a higher probability higher uh quality trade that is most likely going to go in your favor because the markets operate from finding one area of liquidity going to another and while it's doing that it's doing mean reversion that's all it's doing it's just reverting back to the mean and price is fractal so this happens on every time frame there is no perfect golden time frame and so if I understand that 78% for this specific session is on a on a Wednesday morning then I understand that if price comes down and breaks the bottom side I will look for a 10-point long to the upside if price breaks up to the upside of this 79 I'm looking for a 10 points short to the downside why 10 points because that is what my distribution can uh provide for me that is what my data tells me that's why my entry model is specific for me and if you don't have access to my indicator or you don't like the way I trade you have to find an entry model that works for you and then you have to build data on the high probability price movements that that entry model provides right so if you were literally just waiting for the extreme of either side and you're looking for an engulfing candle or a rejection off of a footprint or anything objective that you could explain to a literal monkey that is the way you should engage with any way that you enter the markets right if your entry model becomes very subjective it's hard to scale and to replicate because you have to understand yes it's you trading it but you also have to trade it as if you are trading two to three levels above your current pay grade above your current level as a Trader if you are trading like you're trying to just pass a singular prop account guess what's going to happen when you are trading $10 million in funding guess what's happen when you're going to trade serious live trading Capital live cash you ain't going to know how to freaking capitalize on that you're not going to know how to scale it because you're so focused on trying to trade like you're trading a singular prop account and trying to pass an eval you're not even understanding how to operate levels above you and ladies and gentlemen this is what I tell you guys all the time when you're thinking of studying price when you're thinking of how to capitalize on a price movement or understanding a trading strategy you can't think of it like a 90% retail Trader in terms of how do I get the best win rate how do I how do I get consistent wins you you can't think like that because that is what 90% of the world is trying to do and 90 % of the world sucks at trading and so you have to ask yourself every single time you study an asset what is a 10% way or a multi-dimensional three-dimensional way of looking at Price what is the things that most people are not finding and looking at and how can I capitalize on that most people are terrified to trade the way I trade one because I do sometimes take on draw down but I dollar cost average into my positions and I use a statistical profit Target and two I'm using data I'm not using all of these different High time frame to low time frame top down breaking down doing all this crazy stuff having 7,000 different lines of Confluence on my screen and they and they and people feel crippled if they don't have that right people feel like they just oh my God like I'm trading blind if I don't have 7,000 different lines on my screen and 500 exponential moving averages and seven different levels of time frame support and resistances like people just feel naked and so the way I trade is so freeing to me because I understand that so many people are scared to even do this that that's an edge in and of itself right doing things that most people don't like to do and finding success in it and so going back to this so if I understand that the extreme of either side of these ranges create a confirmation entry or a high probable trade these also won't present themselves a lot right they won't they won't always happen because even like this trade uh in this session here you can see on Wednesday July 3rd we fulfilled the 78% but did we have a trade to the downside did we have a short absolutely not that's why I use my objective way of trading because or my leoc CTIC distributions the price because this allows me to not to get faked out right I'm not just as soon as price hits 78 blindly shorting as soon as we hit here just to get ripped up and stopped out right not I'm not doing that I'm waiting until my distribution tells me that okay we are most likely going to the downside and you can see here we fell outside of that am session so this is no longer valid because keep in mind this is only for am session okay so if I get a short here that we're in a completely new set of data now we're not in the AM session anymore we never got a trade here and so now PM is what I would be focusing on but here if I was looking for a confirmation entry there' be no entry right and so now let's Loop all of this back into midnight open so to increase the frequency to have a little bit more trade frequency while also maintaining a confirmation confirmation entry a higher quality entry this is where I want you all to if you get anything from this session today if you get anything from how I view price or looking at how I trade or anything like that this is how I want you all to understand studying price stop studying price and saying you're studying price to increase the performance of a model because one that is completely a myth you will never increase or decrease a performance of anything you're just creating new probabilities but I want you to look at price and study price in terms of objective reactions and objective ways that you can see the extremes of price because that's how the market moves like ladies and gentlemen I'm sorry if this again if if this offends somebody out there I'm not trying to offend anybody but this is how the market moves the market moves by creating extremes right creating extremes and then reverting back to them aka mean reversion how do you think structure is formed right if you make a higher high and a higher low why do you think this higher high and higher low is created okay because price creates a statistic and it reverts back to the average distribution of that statistic AKA it creates structure right there there that is the most simplest form of describing how how the market moves and so that's that's how I do it that's how I trade and so let's use a few more little data points here to find a high quality extreme quality trade um versus just a normal trade so on the 5th of Wednesday you can see and I just pulled the most recent day that that was just a normal day of this was a half day but I just pulled Wednesday and uh you can see this is midnight opening price now this little range right here shout out to a a really good friend that I've been getting to know and talking to I don't know if he wants me to shout him out or not so I won't mention his name but on this little section right here from 3 to 3:30 this is the European opening of the market okay this is the opening European market and so at 3:00 to 330 what can you what can you even think even just think of it's like in the New York Market the first 30 minutes of the New York Market is extremely volatile right if you understand that the first 30 minutes of anything what look even look at the most traditional fundamental ways of trading open range breakout trading was has been something that we have been using for years since electronic trading was even first a thing right open range breakouts and open range trading has been a way that everything a lot of people's used and so you can see in just this little example right here look at 9:30 9:30 to 10:00 look at how volatile just that first 30 minutes is and so it's the same thing here this is the same it's the same concept it's just a different market and so what I've been looking at and studying is you have this 3 to 3:30 first 30 minutes of that European market you have midnight open and then you have settlement price right here which is that 1615 price and the settlement price is just the final it's the settlement it's as soon as every one of these markets start to close down right they're settling their final prices and so that's a very important little time too and when you see that all three of these line up and again I'm not you don't have to understand the semantics behind why market makers do this and blah blah again people get way too caught up in the semantics of why stuff moves because that does not make you money what makes you money is executing how can you execute on objective analysis objective data and so the objective data is I want you guys to think of this entire thing as a Zone okay we have 1615 here all the way to midnight or actually the below that little Zone here it just creates a Zone just like midnight and so what I've been studying and collecting data on as you can see when we kind of just like with midnight right just like with midnight when we create an extreme we revert back to the mean AKA retracing to midnight 65 to 68% of the time it's the same thing with this Zone and this create creates the ability to as I trade midnight open with just normal pricing if that midnight open becomes a statistic for that day so like in this example here we retraced a midnight we fulfilled that statistic of 65 to 68% but now what did I tell you guys after I'm done trading midnight I also trade the distribution of price and so a couple of my community members in the pack trade group they were trying to find ways to increase risk while just getting evaluations within the prop firm space done a little bit quicker right and I tell people this all the time you have to understand where you're at in your trading career before I'm about to say anything else you have to be mature enough to understand where you are at when it comes to engaging with price and when it comes to trading these prop firm accounts when it comes to trading live Capital if you are not mature enough and real enough to yourself to understand that you are not in any way sh or form at a position in your journey to just quickly pass an evaluation if you have never became funded before your goal should not be to quickly pass an eval on a prop firm it just shouldn't you need to go through the process of treating that like an actual cash account so that way when you do pass the first time even the second time right once you get a couple notches under your belt of passing an evaluation to the standard of a prop firm that builds a level of confidence that no data can never provide because you have done it you've lived it you've done it you got the story you got the T-shirt you you can now say that you have met the criteria and the profitability standards of any prop firm that you traded with and so when you're treading that live capital account that live funded account whether it's a live actual cash account or not I don't care right we all we all agree most of them are simulated but when I say funded you guys know what I mean when you're trading that funded account you now have the ability to respect it more because you went through the process of trading it the right way if you're going to sit here and game the system and try to pass an eval the firstever time you've gotten funded and you're focusing on the outcome versus the process I promise you you're going to put yourself farther than where you left off than where you started because all you're going to do is you're going to go in circles you're going to get try to get a funded account then you're then you're going to psychologically over risk and try to do all this crazy stuff to get a pay out and you're going to blow it and you're going to wonder why you're back to where you I'm telling you man I've been there done that and everyone else has to okay everyone it's it's a perfect if I could just bet on a 100% uh win rate it's betting on people that Rush evaluations in the prop firm space to just try to get a payout they're always going to fail I mean it's it's so common it's so freaking common and so in a situation like this what we're going to be going over is the context of areas that you can increase risk but do it in a statistical based manner instead of just taking either distribution just to try to increase your risk and make more money because if you're taking and and I tell people in the pack trade group now this is something specifically for the pack trade group if you take these trades right and you just want to objectively increase your risk okay you're focusing on the performance and not so much on the context of the model and remember what I said at the beginning of this make sure when you're when you're looking at these markets think three-dimensionally think like the people that are the minority the 10% and how can you take anything and and wrap it into a 10% way of thinking instead of a 90% way of thinking and so if you want to squeeze more out of this way of trading and and and you want to use this in to your advantage instead of just finding any way to increase risk to get an evaluation done quicker right objectively just use the data use the extremes of the range and so we can see here this creates absolute A+ balls deep setups of of taking the extremes of either side of these of this uh distribution and so you can see here it created like this range right we have midnight open settlement and then the three to 330 European opening market and we have all three of these aligned look at what happens when we become when we create an extreme uh below these these these three little pois points of interest whatever you want to call it it creates a beautiful rubber band snapping like effect right and then this is where when you operate in the extremes of these look at what happens I mean you want you want your 10 points you want 20 points I mean it's it's and this is just not one example I'm not cookie cutting this you can see this happening all the time and I'm collecting a ton of data on this right now and you can see create this range here look at this bullish distribution here look at that midnight was right here and so when you have all of these aligning like that it just creates a beautiful scenario for where price is is coming too so you hear people all the time talk about multi-time Frame Alignment and all that stuff when there's just so many different probabilities on each time frame guys there there really is like look at this if I go to a different time frame right now I'm going to have different probabilities of every single one of these distribution trades but if I stay on the same time frame right and I just use an anchored objective constant just like in a math equation right just like in a math equation what did I tell you guys all the time in algebra 101 what did I say if you have constants those create the equ that that makes the equation better it creates it easier to solve if you have more constants in an equation the equation now becomes more objectively easier to solve if I tell you to use a fair value order block with a market shift on the 5 minute time frame with a 1 hour bearish Trend everyone in there's 36 people here watching this live every single person I promise you is going to have a different entry every single person they're going to be all over the place somebody's going to do this and think this is a market structure here when this person said no that's not actually a market structure shift because it actually happened here and this person over here is going to say well no we were drawing off the The Horseshoe liquid pull here with the loopy loop fa value Gap here so that like there's going to be 70,000 different ways viewing it but when you have an objective constant midnight settlement 3 to 330 range it's it's the same thing every day everyone has 3 to 330 on their chart everyone has midnight everyone has this settlement price and so just like when you trade these midnight retracements it there's nothing nothing's changed right this isn't like an additional model it's just a way to view the extremes of the of price in and using statistics to your favor to then increase the risk if that provides itself if that situation happens and so like even on this way on this day here right You' be like well Austin would you still take this long even though we're in the absolutely you know why because at the end of the day I have a 65 to 68% probability of being correct to midnight open and so on this day here on Monday July 4th we actually took this trade and this is still a beautiful trade we took some draw down and then we ended up winning the trade right here because dollar cost averaging is one of the most beautiful it's the it's I think Albert Einstein said when you use midnight open with dollar cost averaging it's like the 10th wonder of the world he said that and if you say I'm lying then you're just a hater like it's just it's so beautiful like look at this I took two micro contracts here we took a little bit of heat and yes I said little bit because this was like $300 to $400 on a 150k account old boohoo oh my God red numbers oh my God I can't I can't handle it and people are like oh that's Martingale no it's not and so dollar cost average again here at 10:01 entry price here dollar cost average number three 1018 brings me 1018 right here average cost cost was there brings it brings my average cost down to here and look at what you know look at exactly where price came up to and then rejected the statistical profitability that my model has said my because out of hundreds hundreds dude hundreds of if not thousands of Trades 0.13% distribution in favor of any direction to midnight is just stupid high probability stupid High consistent hit rate and then when you add the powers of dollar cost averaging 25 or 25 points or 31% because 25 points 5 years ago is going to be different than 25 points five years from now right but 0.13% is always going to be 0.13% and so you can see this playing out and then guess what happens guess what happens when we operate outside of this little range that I've been studying and then and guys this is new like I've just been studying this and looking at this and because of the connection that I've been making and amazing people that I've been networking with that also use statistics this is what happens when you surround yourself with people that understand the same stuff that you do and you just grow together I mean if I didn't create the pack trade group I would have never even found this right and look at this created this Zone we operate out outside of the extreme of this Zone and so if I wanted now that I hit profit here now that I I hit my my 25 points do I want to take this short to the downside I want to let I want to ask you guys right here you don't even have to be a p pack Trader just say yes or no in the den chat I see some PE I see a question in the den chat I'll get to it if you guys do have questions ask them in the den just say yes or no in the in the den chat would you take this short right here knowing what I just told you guys after you hit your 25 points would you want to take this distribution to the downside I'll zoom out a little bit so you can see Scott no no Chains No Dale no exactly right you don't have to be a pack you don't have to be a genius everyone just answered the same thing I gave you guys like a 10 minute 15 minute little block of instruction of of this little range right here and within 10 to 15 minutes you guys have seen the objective nature of a high high quality trade that can you can increase your risk on and so in a situation like this this is actually a perfect example I wasn't even trying to cookie cut this or take a trade that just fits my narrative I just was I just noticed this and I'm kind of saying it live with this recording is this would be a trade that let's see did this even hit still this still hit I mean again because I'm only shooting for 10 points for these shorts so even though this still hit you could objectively put more risk on on a confirmation trade versus a risk entry and so this is a perfect example of a risk trade a risk entry trade where you're trading the expansion of this range and then what is this on a Monday Monday am distribution is 78% 78% oh my God actually no this so now look I want you guys to just look at this I I literally am doing this live recording I did not even prep get this prepped at all look at this 78% Monday 78% we op operated at the extreme of the range look at where we started reversing from look at we started from you can't make this stuff up we came down dumped 78% worth and then we C we we did all the way to 091 but we know that the data tells us the extreme the left and right limit is 78% we started melting down we came back up melted down and hit the0 78% distribution for the morning and what do you know baby that long right here now has became a a stupid balls deep freaking betting the house no I'm joking but such a high probability long and so now I would ask you um where is Eddie in the chat here is Eddie okay Eddie's in here and then chill FX chill FX and then the other people that we were kind of talking about this too right I would even I would ask you now when it comes to trading these distributions where you're trying to get these EV vals done a little bit quicker whatever the case may be right look at just the quality of this now you understand instead of just because you understand the context behind this and you understand how to read data from a holistic point of view you don't have to sit here and just you get a distribution and you're like okay all right I don't know the the probabilities of this but I'm just going to go increased risk because this does have a high hit rate but I don't know the context and probabilities of each one of these but now you can see this you can see this for what it is and you just it it's like you now know how to increase risk in proportion to to statistical logic and this is what I want each and every one of you all in the pack trade group or just in the community of the pack trading Community this is how I want you guys to start thinking this is what I want you guys to start like the wheels to start spinning in your brain okay is stop looking at trading as increasing win rates and increasing profits you will always always always fail always fail because you're just one you're over optimizing for past data for future performance and guess what every single disclosure says and and when you invest into any investment fund guess what they say they say past performance does not equate to Future results it's the same thing that people in the retail space are doing and I say retail I'm a retail Trader too guys I'm just saying and generalizing in the retail space people over optimize the crap out of their strategies they over optimize the crap out of the way they trade this is being in tune with the market it doesn't matter if you're bullish Market Market consolidating Market bearish doesn't matter if you want to do this on the 5 minute 10 minute 12 minute loop-de-loop minute doesn't matter just because I'm showing you guys this on the one minute does that make it any better than the five no it's however you want to consistently engage with price with consistent probabilities there is no magic time frame this will work with us30 NASDAQ gold it whatever but guess what you have to put in the work to study the asset and find the probabilities I am telling every single one of these little data points is specific to NASDAQ right every single one of these the the distribution shooting for 10 to 25 points depending on if it's a midnight to distribution trade uh the the the probabilities of midnight all of this is specific for Nasdaq and guess what people do and it literally breaks my heart every single time people ask me this does this work with gold like it it just it it it infuriates me because people are so F and it's not to do with the person that asks that that's a great question if you're just complete if you don't really understand the data but it infuriates me because we have been embedded in our psychology in our brain in the retail space because you go on social media and and YouTube and all these other places Twitter and and we have been brainwashed to believe that that's how you're supposed to look at it what's the win rate what's the profit factor of that is this is it is the 15 minute better than the 5 minute it it all works it's all just different probabilities and you have to find the probabilities that best fit your plan your session when you want to trade the asset that has the best probabilities at a specific time if you're in London and you primarily trade London then it makes absolutely no sense to back test NASDAQ on the New York it all is just dependent on your personal business so let's go and and look at a few more examples here and so you can see the window here is this helpful um or am I kind of like let me know in the chat is this before we keep on going is this like helpful am I or am I just rambling uh I want to make sure this is like this is relatable to your guy to you guys and you're not just like super clueless because I want to make sure you guys are on the same level I don't I don't want to be talking at level 10 when you're like dude can you like dumb it down just a little bit okay all right it's great 100% all right sweet sweet sweet okay um so question Alex T do what's up man would you consider modifying distribution times in order to meet the certain highs and lows that are made in the day would you consider modifying distribution times in order to meet CH certain highs and lows that are made in the day I'm not sure could you kind of expand on that I don't know what you mean by modifying distribution times in order yeah I I'm not sure I understand the the question maybe you could give an example top down breaking down is my favorite indicator hey you guys indicator right check it out literally you can you can put in in the midnight snap 15 same time frame you just got to do one hour before whatever if you're if you're on a Future's asset right so NQ is a Futures asset so seven represents eight uh oh this is supposed to be 1015 which represents 1115 15 which is the 16 and now if you put 15 minute here it it doesn't work it'll crash it and so there's another indicator called uh ICT NY open and I just put 615 to 1615 to 1616 it kind of shows that but uh I mean you can use the midnight snap and it still shows you the the the relative area and then obviously midnight snap midnight open um so yeah there's there's already this this out here and so you can see did we already go over this day got midnight here and so again big Zone we start out at 8 o' 8 o' we operated we we were inside that but then look at what happened look at what started the motivation to then come down to midnight open and look at where we chopped up from and so we had a short right here at 8:31 and so this gives you objective analysis objective data everyone here you should be thinking and salivating in the back of your brain you should be like foaming at the mouth after everything I've just showed you guys you should have seen this short just now in the back of your mind if you were paying attention you should been like dude this is a this is a short that I would go balls to the wall in because the data tells you this is a high probability trade and now guess what going back to Eddie and chill FX and all of you guys that are U talking about using the distributions uh to increase your risk well guess what happens look at what we look at what happened we we fulfilled the midnight data and now if you're looking and you're in the market for a distribution trade well first F first things first am Friday distribution is 0.92% so 0.92% looks like this and so current in current market conditions here right we were here and so because we didn't know what was about to happen we can't see into the future unless you're Nancy Loi um we only distributed so far 58% and so right now we would be putting the top of the the top of this here because now we're in a downtrend and so we're we're seeing if price wants to break to the bottom side okay and now you also see we have midnight European Zone here and I I think he doesn't mind so shout out to veteran uh his if you guys want to get give him a follow I'm going to post this on my Twitter because he's a he's a super cool dude veteran pvi um I don't think he'll M he'll mind if I shout him out he was the one that even gave me this idea of looking at the European opening market and uh and the settlement price and I was like well dude this is this is genius because it creates a little Zone he's he uses statistics just like I do and it creates this little Zone here and look at what happens as soon as we uh retrace the midnight open and now I'm looking for distribution trades well now you best believe this long right here because we created a a rubber band like effect because we operate outside of this range here and I'm wanting to still take advantage of this objective 0.92% expansion this this long has now became a high probability long like I'm shooting for 10 points but now I can increase my risk now instead of because on these distribution trades I'll do one Mini for 10 points and give myself three dollar cost averages with One Mini because obviously one minis have more risk than a micro and so like on One Mini here I'll make uh 200 bucks for 10 points but now if I understand that I've operated below this I'm still in tune to make 0.92% distribution so that could be to the upside who knows it's still this much that 10 points can now I can do one of two two things I can either make this 10 points worth more money do one to three contracts I mean I'm just giving you guys brainstorming examples I'm not saying anything in stone or whatever but now I can either increase my risk for the same statistical profit Target and where do I get 10 points from guys I I do everything for a reason everything for a reason and so if I if I understand let me put this data in here if I understand that between 8 to 9 8 to noon my leptic distributions of price okay my objective way of looking it price it can provide in order 0.1 to 0.11% dis uh price in my favor and what does that look like from a points perspective 0.1 to 0.11 we'll take the smaller of that's 20 points my indicator can provide 20 points in in a systematic process of distribution of either side of the market and so now I combine all of this data I combine the extremes of the market I combine the midnight opening price I combine the average distribution of price I'm just shooting for 10 points that is literally half of the average and if this is the com high common high high probability if this is a high uh this is a very common price Target and then take a look at this right here down here out of all of this data the mode or what has happened the most right going back to math math class in first grade the mode is what the mode is what happens most of the time the most common statistic the most common data point so if I give you guys if I were to give you five five 1 or 41 2 5 89 okay if I were to tell you hey what's the average of this data set and then you would take five you go five plus 5+ 4 + 1+ 2+ 5 plus 8 plus 9 and then how many data points do we have here 1 2 3 4 five six seven 8 divid that's 39 divided 8 that gives you 17 and I completely did that wrong because I forgot 5 + 5 plus 4 plus 1 plus 2 plus 5 plus 8 + 9 / 7 or 8 yeah 4.875 so the the the average of this data set is 4.875 now i' ask you is there a 4.875 in this data set no right this is just the average of the data that you have okay so the mode is what just occurred the most five right so you have five that occurred the most these are hard price targets these are specific price targets that literally has hit not the average but has hit and so now this creates a range okay this this creates an extreme of either side of the of the range that's actually a bad visual here's the left side the left limit and here's the right limit and so now I understand that my probabilities my realm of probabilities the highest most highest balls deep freaking holy crap Mount Olympus loop-de-loop theory model strategy Extravaganza is in between this threshold because I understand that within this threshold right here is what lies the highest probability if I understand that five anywhere between 4.75 to5 if I understand that this is the highest common guess what I'm doing I'm not try I'm not shooting for this I'm shooting for whatever's below this because if this is high probability then now I would shoot for I don't know three let's say 3.5 and now if this is the highest of the high this is my this is GE bro this is the best right this is the best the most probable outcome that I'm going to get hit and so now re looping this back to my data points here that's all I'm doing is if I understand that my my entry model provides 0.1 to 0.11% distribution in my favor of Any Given trade then I'm going to have that so that way if this is above average or this is above average this is the this is the common this is the above average and so now my profit Target is set in stone I'm not saying because here's the problem with most of you guys out here that's trading discretionary you're like I've seen it happen before I I've seen it happen last week it's called recency bias if you don't have data to tell me exactly how you trade and and and the and the stats to back up how you trade happens this many times and that this probability I don't care about a sniper entry that you took I genuinely am not impressed with a a bottom that you caught or a top that you caught if you can't show me in your model the percentage and the probability that is scalable and that's how I trade is a way to scale the probabilities that I already have how can I scale this scalability doesn't come from discretion scalability comes from repetitive processes that you can have uh repeated outcomes from and this is a way that you can do that is you can have scalability you can have the ability to scale a model we don't want to again thinking back to what I said at the beginning of this you're not here to pass a single prop from account you're here to trade as if you were trading a sixf fig live cash account you're here to trade like you want to be a professional okay and so now looping this all back I could say okay if I understand that my 10 points or 05% distribution is a stupid High probable profit Target and then I also understand that in relation to where I'm at with price this is a stupid High reversal area here because the data tells me that it is then now I can increase my risk here without taking on Extreme risk over here to collect a high probable profit Target I mean it's just beautiful right it's just beautiful and and even if you took this trade right here and guess what else I know I also know the statistics of my average draw down because my average draw down tells me because you be like lost and it's great if you know your profit Target but if price takes youus 70,000 just to get that little 05% that's probably not the best right well I got that figured out too my average uh if because I tell it right here 1% right how much am I willing for price to go against me with with also taking into consideration my max daily loss and my dollar cost averages I take all of that into consideration because I understand and I operate from the realization that I'm not trying to pick tops and bottoms I will carry some draw down in some of these trades I just have to understand what's the average draw down average draw down tells me it's roughly you can see roughly .14 098 03909 2 you know you can kind of see the average is around 02 and so if the average is around 02 what did this one do this one didn't even come close to that meaning I can carry on average 2% so now I have to make my risk be able to carry at least on average 2% risk or I just have to be okay with cutting the loss you know it's it's it's however you want to manage this freaking risk and so even in this trade here if I were to go three contracts going back to this three contracts what's the most that this trade experienced before hitting 05% uh what is this a th 1,080 right but if I'm trading a 150k account giving myself a max daily loss of 15 or whatever dude why not I'm not a I'm not a baby I don't care of taking a loss I don't care about taking a loss guess what as I'm researching this I just drisk if I if I am not comfortable taking on $1,095 of draw down you don't have to do it you just lower your contract sizing now that's only a 730 Max draw down for that trade or maybe you're okay with doing one contract but you shoot for more uh for more points because you can see that I can get about 20 20 points on average so instead of shooting for uh a profit Target of 05 you just increase the overall distance and now that becomes even that prob profit Target becomes higher right and you can also now take on more risk like there's so many freaking ways you can take your risk management and tailor it to data let's look at some more examples do we have any other questions before I keep on going here uh what time candle do you consider settlement 1615 uh no need for a smaller stop loss no need for a smaller stop loss exactly Scott is now upset because he has to back test all weekend uh we will Deep dive into this the ends absolutely uh hey Austin could it be possible to do this in steps like it's 8151 oh yeah dude let's do that let's just scrunch the the chart down it's good it's good good thing here and then we'll just go to a random day I'll just stop now all right Thursday June 20th all right so step number one just like normal right let's turn this draw down off all right so it's funny I choose a day in that we're inside this range so perfect example right I'm I'm not letting this over optimize my model to where I can't trade right I'm still taking this short okay we're we're starting out let's go to the 1 hour time frame just like we normally would where it's uh 7 o'clock here right we have bearish liquidity right here dropping down to the one minute time frame see if we re okay sweet we ret midnight open so now I wouldn't even be looking for a midnight open trade I'd just be looking for distribution distribution meaning the expansion of this range and so if I understand that the expansion of this range on a Thursday am is 78% let's go to like well I'm on a Futures Contract that that's the issue and so it's going to probably stop printing here that's why I don't I only have one day let's go to like a thre minute uh uh SE 75% okay so 75% is roughly what the past few THS days have provided again I'm just doing this rough quick and dirty okay so 0 75 this is our left and right limit of this distribution for the am session we have uh midnights here we have settlement we have the range right here okay so here's the footprint I'll label this footprint all right and then I will also create a Zone from the [Music] 1615 oh shoot this is a holiday let's do a different day this is a holiday so you're not going to have that 1615 settlement price you see how it goes from noon to 13,800 so let's go to let's go to this day I'm not cherry picking uh it's just not a good example of because it was a holiday so let's go to this day all right Tuesday Tuesday let's go to three minute here Tuesday is 67% of the last six Tuesdays 67% that's the range that we're expecting starting on the 1 hour We're above midnight so I'm looking for shorts we have bear liquidity all the way here and I'm just encompassing all of these Wicks okay to show me a zone of sell pressure of exactly objectively where price is most likely going to start the Catalyst of midnight open and then we are above all of all three of these we're above the European open to the first 30 minutes we're above midnight and we're also above settlement creates kind of like a zone right here okay so now we we understand this this potential day here is going to create a beautiful short opportunity because we're above all of this stuff we're above midnight which gives us a 65 to 68% probability we're Above This European Zone and we're also above the settlement so this gives us a high probable midnight open retracement and then if we break to the bottom side of this then this gives us a high probability distribution trade or if we come up with the buses right either way it gives us a high probability distribution trade after that midnight statistic becomes F filled so now we're only looking for shorts here's your short uh right here at 8:33 midnight opening price was here yep so still still in play 25 points or 0.13% 0.12% whatever 0.12 to 0.13 whatever that is for 25 points that now becomes even higher probability and then we hit it right here 25 points and now we'd be looking for the distribution okay so instead of taking either side of the distribution if you wanted your confirmation risk entry or your confirmation entry with increased risk you'd be waiting to see if we operate from the extreme to the downside here okay so we still we're still waiting we're still waiting for the extreme of this Zone maybe we don't get it I don't know I'm not cherry picking trade so we may not get it okay so now we're in the EXT right here right here look at this this is like statistical alignment bro people talk about multi-timeframe horse crap alignment this is statistical alignment right I just made this up I copyrighted it you got to you got to pay me if you ever want to use that term okay you got vinmo me five bucks for every time you use it so we break to the downside all right we break to the downside below the high probability area that we going to retrace back into we we broke the 67% distribution right here and oh my God look at where price stopped at it's almost like the market operates in a mean reversion statistical basis 10 points there you go what else do you need did I need to do a fair value Gap did I did I have to draw a fair value Gap in here to make okay so we operated from this fair value Gap I mean look at that we'll do another day uh before we do another day let me see if you got other questions Eddie did that was that helpful doing it like a stepbystep basis like that let's see let's see let's see Johnny tsunami I love that name by the way seems great but would like to know where I can study where you're getting everything in the approach um check out the Google sheet in free edu great question Johnny let me let me share it here uh pack it's called pack trade group weight list but it's I made it again I made it to for that way for you to see the the spot that you're at but this also has my a toz playlist this has uh my threads this has every everything that I've ever done content wise on how I use statistics it's it's a free resource has everything right there it has uh and that also has the link to um how to get my indicator so it it's all right there crypto norski is not sleeping tonight grateful if we don't have your indicator how do we calculate the distribution range oh great bro you don't need my indicator like so this one right here this is an added benefit to being in the pack trade group but just get a Google sheet you can get a Google sheet because you're just wanting to stay in tune with the current market right every single Sunday Saturday Friday whatever spare time you have on the weekends whatever day is something that you can stay consistent to make it just a part of your weekly battle Rhythm and in the military we say battle Rhythm it's just a it's a thing that we do consistently every single day or week okay make it a weekly in a battle rhythm in your week to every single weekend measure the previous three to four weeks of price okay every single Monday through Friday take about 10 to 30 minutes okay burn you may burn like five calories doing it and split it up into am and then if you trade PM I have pm distribution here just because some of you guys trade PM I don't trade PM but if you want to see it there it is if you only trade am it's going to be 10 times easier because you only got to do 8 to 12 highlight 8 to 12 get a sessions indicator or however you want to do it and just use the price range tool knock it out on Google what was the past three four weeks all right past three four weeks uh and then write down every single distribution every single Monday every single Tuesday and then find your averages it's very simple this makes sense snipy nice uh yeah like for example 6:00 to 9:00 a. if there is a strong Trend during those times in order to mean revert if price overextends Why not start why not setting start distribution times at 1615 and finding the time when it is statistic ially over extended okay so what what you're asking Alex is basically if I do settlement to uh what like 08 I mean it could completely possibility I'm just sharing with you guys my my studying of of of a of price so you're asking if I did something like this like 165 to8 and then now I measure during the O overextension so we have the past uh what is this what day are we on Monday previous Monday is 0 45% 0.45 so we operated below distribution so we didn't have a really a reversion to the mean but look at what happened we did break it right there so I mean maybe it could be a thing I'm not saying I'm not saying it couldn't be um but I'll look at it could be I don't know the the biggest thing is I just want to keep this as simple as possible right I most simple process is what's going to make the most money for me um so did we do Monday did we do this day I don't think we did so here's another example of a a day where you could go normal risk on your midnight because it's still I'm still going to take this short right you have this zone right here here's the European Zone to settlement here's your like retracement Zone and you can see look at this we're we we start out inside that zone but it's it's not like I'm not going to take this trade right I'm just going to take it with lower risk or my normal risk because I'm still very profitable doing that and so I would take my 25 points right here okay my objective bearish distribution and now on a Monday June 17th a.m We have a 66% distribution 66 let's build that out 6 six right here and then we would be operating okay so we' still be within range and then we would just zoom out and if we wanted to trade the expansion of this 66% and we were here all right we've fulfilled the statistic I don't want to take this long even though it looks like this hit profit 10 points yeah look at this this still hit 10 points darn hit 10 points or you could just do with normal risk here just understanding that you're most likely going to go down but either way right 10 points this one hit 10 points this one hit 10 points but if you want your high confirmation High probable extreme Extravaganza right then and and and you don't want to take that then look at what happened we came below this Zone you're waitting now now you're in the extreme you're operating in the extreme you're waiting for confirmation you have your bullish confirmation right here 10 points so maybe you do two minis I don't know I'm just I'm just spitballing that'd be like what 400 bucks for two mini 10 points yeah 400 bucks and then the most you took on right there was about 420 bucks so this was literally like in in terms of risk to reward even though you should never measure your entire trading performance on a risk to reward single trade basis but that's neither here or there um you traded pretty much a one to one right there and then if you wanted more distributions uh you have another long right well no that's not valid because that's a bearish candle um what theck what that was see okay any other questions see you later Dale have a good day uh please can you explain how you dollar cost average yeah I use my distributions to tell me when I need to add to my position if I'm in draw down all right so it's very simple very very simple if I if I'm in a like let's say I took this short right here to midnight open and I experienced some draw down I'm two micros okay big whoop I'm going to see some red numbers oh my God sue me right and so I'm just waiting for instead of take closing this trade and taking a realized loss just waiting for price to correct giving me objective distribution to the downside again and once I get another distribution to the downside I uh add to my short so like let's say this this little leg down here was another wolf now my 25 points is worth more money and now it would be the average cost would be here instead of here that's all I'm doing and then another thing that I'm doing is my contract sizing is dynamic it's not it's not static right I'm not doing one one one one one because all you're doing when you do that static dollar cost average type of way of trading you're just they're not being meaningful right you're they're not you're just going to be going exact and then as you build contracts right if you're doing one one one one by the time like let's say this was a$d doll cost average well if math this would be one this would be one that's two okay so now I'm two contracts deep right here do you think if I add one contract here that's going to pull my average cost up a lot absolutely not if I do one contract here and I'm already two contracts deep it's going to pull my average like this it's going to do nothing it's gonna it's going to do nothing of pulling my average cost up and so I'll start out like if I'm doing a 150k right uh two two 3 three four five six and I'll dynamically increase like that so that way they're going in favor of the contract sizing and then if I just lose the trade I lose the trade right it's not a big deal uh where do you mark the amount of distributions for the day where do you mark out the distribution amount of distribution for the day I just Ed this price range Tool uh Mr mrm AB I just Ed the price range tool dat says into that thank you so much with this expansion percentage do you think the more sessions you have data for the more helpful or do you keep in line with the last number yeah I think um I I operate from the belief Johnny that when it comes to the distribution okay not not not the midnight open because the midnight open is constant right keep in mind the difference when it comes to data okay when you're talking from a statistical basis you have to make sure the context uh operates from the same consistency of the data points okay if I'm using a constant then the historical data does play a big role because that shows you the consistency if I'm operating from a variable I need to know the data of of the current market climate right because because the markets change the market conditions change all the time and the distributions change all the time and so I want to know the current market climate just like how if you were to check the weather right you would want to know the current market you you'd want to know the current climate of your environment not the historical 10 10 10 plus year average of tomorrow right you would want to know what's happening tomorrow because the seasons are Ever Changing just like the market is but if I were to ask you what time do you wake up in the morning to get to work on time you would say 8:00 doesn't matter the time difference doesn't matter the day of the year you want to wake up at 8 o00 every single morning to get to work on time because statistically if you take into account getting up and and brushing your teeth eating breakfast putting your clothes on driving to work you're taking all of that data into consideration to make sure you are having a consistent hit rate AKA getting to work on time you see how trading relates to Everyday Life you see how it's so beautiful and so it's the same thing here so if I understand and I operate from a statistical thought process I need to operate using current market conditions not not what inq did 10 years ago on average so exactly what Quantum just said because he he was answering your question as well he said my personal opinion would be to keep tabs on both both but the recent data is more beneficial exactly and exact it's it's it's current market conditions paired with historical Trends or historical uh not Trend historical I guess bias you could say I hate using the word bias but historically 65 to 68% of the time if you have a bias above or below midnight you're going to be correct right and then you compare compare that with what we're doing here so good question um hey Austin rememberest when you did the Five Points you tapped in some data and the back testing was mad quick how did you do that exactly yeah so this little tool here if you put in like let's say let's say like this trade right here right you wanted to see at a very quick glance but you have to make sure when you're back testing this you're you're not just looking at all of the trades right you're only looking at the ones that you care about but once you get your filters in place AK all this data that we just talked about this is where this table can be kind of powerful making back testing pretty quick and so if you understand that 05% is your profit Target then you're going to put Max instead of Max distribution because from a data standpoint you're just telling it hey what's the average that you're getting between your left and right limit meaning how much you're at Max wanting to lose versus I need you to stop measuring in profit this much because it's going to skew the data if it just allows to for price to keep on going right so at a Max of 1% draw down to uh 0.1% in favor of the trade what is your average in profit that you can squeeze out of this trade between 8 to 12 so that's from a a statistical standpoint but from a back testing standpoint you can turn labels [Music] on okay and then you can put if you've figured out that 05% is your objective criteria you can put 05 because it'll start drawing a green line here uh you see how that's drawing these green lines it'll draw that green line exactly where that takeprofit would be and then also you want to see just using the replay tool just see how many contracts could would you realistically take right so with two two two contracts on on the mini you have to see how much risk are you are you willing to take on for that trade and so if you had say a Max loss of I don't know 15,500 on a 150k account that gives you uh two losses before you lose that account and you're trying to trade it aggressively to pass the eval whatever right we're not talking about funded accounts we're talking about just getting that eval done and over with right if then now for, 1500 for two contracts that gives you 0. one n to so let's just round it up to 0.2 that gives you around 0 2% before you hit that stop loss and so now you can put 0 2% here and then you'll see the the stop loss to and the take profit right here you see this little red line it'll show you the red line and then what these labels are showing you is how much price went in favor of that trade before hitting that stop loss and so as long as this number on the yellow label is above whatever you put here or the same then you know that that's at a GL at a quick glance a take profit because it it it did it right and so like in this trade here um and this is the only reason I keep the label off because when you're back tting it does this stupid crap but right here it hit that green line before it even hit that red and so it hit objectively what it did but where we're in replay mode it throws off these labels sometimes and so it's made for just like quick glances not you know back testing with it or like or live trading with it because it'll just keep repeating those labels it's really annoying but that's how to do it awesome session today I can't stay on during the week so these testing sessions are great have to leave oh nice absolutely Dart all right I'm going to stop the recording here

all right so uh in this little back testing session study session I just kind of want to go over NASDAQ um now I will say as a disclaimer for you guys this is going to have uh pack trading models pack trade group specific stuff okay AKA how we get and actually get into the markets engage with price AKA my bearish and bullish leoc CTIC distributions which is my little green and red wolves but but you can use this concept and apply it to however you want to enter the markets okay there&#39;s a difference between concept model strategy there&#39;s a difference between a strategy and an entry model okay there&#39;s two completely different things because a model is what gives you the foundation of however you see price and then your entry model okay or your entry method however you want to call it the semantics don&#39;t matter however you want to objectively get into a trade that is going to be specific to you and so I think one thing that I want to start off with is a lot of people get this confused when I go over how to trade with using the midnight opening price they get kind of confused with the fact that they think that how I engage with price is how they&#39;re supposed to engage with price and how they&#39;re supposed to get it doesn&#39;t matter right if you have a 65 to 68% edge of being correct that edge can be applied however you want to engage but for me and the pack trade group we have our own proprietary way of getting into the trade and and waiting for distribution to be on our side for whatever side we take either a long or a short but that&#39;s not to say that how you get in is better or worse it&#39;s just it allows us to objectively have a uniform way of engaging with price and so while that&#39;s out of the way um the first thing I want to go over is midnight open and again why is midnight open so effective okay why is why is this magic little line so good I have to give you guys context because we can&#39;t just get into this if you don&#39;t understand the simple concept so just like on a one minute candle right if I go to bitcoin right now and I go to just let&#39;s just go to a random Futures Bitcoin contract I don&#39;t know go to binance and if I go to the one minute chart the only reason I&#39;m going to bitcoin is because it&#39;s a weekend markets are closed for anything else so if I go on this one minute candle do you notice that this these one minute candles they have a very high probability no matter what one minute candle you watch when they&#39;re bouncing and they&#39;re opening and then they&#39;re going here and then they&#39;re going here and they&#39;re trying to decide do they want to open and close bullish or bearish right they&#39;re opening here see how it&#39;s fluctuating it&#39;s going bullish but we have 50 seconds left it could come back down and then retest its opening price to then go lower all we are doing when we are viewing the midnight opening price is we are just watching and taking advantage of this fluctuation from this candle going from here back to the opening price and then seeing if it wants to make its mind up to go and and close bearish at the end of the day or if it wants to come over here and you know make a dogee candle right where you have giant Wicks on both sides and then maybe it just wants to open and then close exactly where it opened from or maybe it wants to use this a support that day and then continue going up like who who cares right the the main thing is why is this New York opening price so effective it&#39;s because you have that fluctuation of that daily candle and all we are doing is we&#39;re taking high probability uh trading decisions of when this candle was literally just going from here to here or from here to here that&#39;s it right we&#39;re just doing a high probability bet as you could say and so now going back to inq there&#39;s a few a few ways that you can kind of dissect NASDAQ and then see see it for what it is in terms of high probabilities versus extreme High probabilities right because I don&#39;t really want to say high pro A+ B+ whatever setup it&#39;s just there are objective ways that you can use this to have higher risks uh higher risk trades versus just normal risk trades and a lot of people in the pack trade group they already know this and I tell people this all the time that the way I use and view price and also engage with price I like to have an entry a risk entry concept and then I like to have a confirmation entry concept and what I mean by that and why I think it&#39;s so effective is when you have a risk entry it&#39;s it&#39;s carrying a little bit more risk but it could create a bigger reward and so you run the risk of losing the trade a little bit a little bit higher but the reward is also exponentially higher than the risk that you&#39;re taking right and then a confirmation entry where the the reward is more consistent but less than that of a risk entry but you have a higher probability of being correct you have a higher win rate strike rate however you want to use it right and so you kind of as a as a Trader you have to balance the two because th those two ways of engaging with price they they they mean a lot and so when I take trades when I use this midnight opening concept when I when I trade using this there&#39;s different moments in the markets that you can have a normal just risk entry and there&#39;s moments that you can have confir entries where you have more things going for you and you&#39;re taking your time you&#39;re not trying to catch the top or bottom and you just ride the wave and as you guys notice that&#39;s that&#39;s mostly how I trade I trade just waiting for the confirmation right I&#39;m not trying to pick the top like in this case here this is midnight open this yellow line I&#39;m not trying to catch the top of this move and go all the way down or ride it here I&#39;m not trying to do that all I&#39;m trying to do is wait for the confirmation AK my objective way of viewing distribution uh of price and then I&#39;m I&#39;m writing it for 25 points right here we&#39;re above midnight short right here on this 810 Candle on the on the 3r of July and 25 points here and I think I wasn&#39;t actually no this was a trade yeah this was a trading day was a half day but either way um and that&#39;s all I do right but there&#39;s also scenarios and ways that I&#39;ve been kind of studying here with NASDAQ that also can have a little bit of a better Advantage you can have a little bit of more risk you can have you can carry out a little bit more uh higher probability price movements and then this also applies to how we in the pack trade Group trade distributions AKA if we have uh on any given day like let&#39;s say let me make this table just a little bit bigger and you&#39;ll see it if for example on the 3D of July on Wednesday in the AM session you can see here Wednesday am session we had an objective 78% in the past four Wednesdays of creating at least 78% price distri distribution did we hit 78 price distribution yes we did we had a minimum minimum this is not calling a top or a bottom or whatever but a minimum price distribution of 78% so that lets us know that I can take either side of the market trading this until we reach this threshold of 78% and so that is what I would consider a risk entry because as you are trading the fluctuation of this daily of this not daily candle the flu tion of this am session just like I do with the fluctuation of the midnight open I&#39;m also taking and carrying inherent risk if I&#39;m not doing the extremes of either side right so if I&#39;m trading the 78% price distribution and I&#39;m taking a short here long here whatever until this gets met there is inherent risk that I short when a trend starts to go up or I long when a trend starts to go down because we&#39;re just trading a 10-point bite side price movement until that extreme is created and so what I tell people in this in the pack trade group especially is that there&#39;s two ways that you can even play the average distribution of the market you can have the risk entry the higher risk of trading the expansion of this or if you don&#39;t want to carry that risk if you don&#39;t want to trade um and and you just have to put in the back of your mind you&#39;re not going to have setups every single day but if you don&#39;t want to have that inherent risk of trading the fluctuation and the expansion of this C of this session then you can just wait for when price hits the extreme of either side and then you have a higher probability higher uh quality trade that is most likely going to go in your favor because the markets operate from finding one area of liquidity going to another and while it&#39;s doing that it&#39;s doing mean reversion that&#39;s all it&#39;s doing it&#39;s just reverting back to the mean and price is fractal so this happens on every time frame there is no perfect golden time frame and so if I understand that 78% for this specific session is on a on a Wednesday morning then I understand that if price comes down and breaks the bottom side I will look for a 10-point long to the upside if price breaks up to the upside of this 79 I&#39;m looking for a 10 points short to the downside why 10 points because that is what my distribution can uh provide for me that is what my data tells me that&#39;s why my entry model is specific for me and if you don&#39;t have access to my indicator or you don&#39;t like the way I trade you have to find an entry model that works for you and then you have to build data on the high probability price movements that that entry model provides right so if you were literally just waiting for the extreme of either side and you&#39;re looking for an engulfing candle or a rejection off of a footprint or anything objective that you could explain to a literal monkey that is the way you should engage with any way that you enter the markets right if your entry model becomes very subjective it&#39;s hard to scale and to replicate because you have to understand yes it&#39;s you trading it but you also have to trade it as if you are trading two to three levels above your current pay grade above your current level as a Trader if you are trading like you&#39;re trying to just pass a singular prop account guess what&#39;s going to happen when you are trading $10 million in funding guess what&#39;s happen when you&#39;re going to trade serious live trading Capital live cash you ain&#39;t going to know how to freaking capitalize on that you&#39;re not going to know how to scale it because you&#39;re so focused on trying to trade like you&#39;re trading a singular prop account and trying to pass an eval you&#39;re not even understanding how to operate levels above you and ladies and gentlemen this is what I tell you guys all the time when you&#39;re thinking of studying price when you&#39;re thinking of how to capitalize on a price movement or understanding a trading strategy you can&#39;t think of it like a 90% retail Trader in terms of how do I get the best win rate how do I how do I get consistent wins you you can&#39;t think like that because that is what 90% of the world is trying to do and 90 % of the world sucks at trading and so you have to ask yourself every single time you study an asset what is a 10% way or a multi-dimensional three-dimensional way of looking at Price what is the things that most people are not finding and looking at and how can I capitalize on that most people are terrified to trade the way I trade one because I do sometimes take on draw down but I dollar cost average into my positions and I use a statistical profit Target and two I&#39;m using data I&#39;m not using all of these different High time frame to low time frame top down breaking down doing all this crazy stuff having 7,000 different lines of Confluence on my screen and they and they and people feel crippled if they don&#39;t have that right people feel like they just oh my God like I&#39;m trading blind if I don&#39;t have 7,000 different lines on my screen and 500 exponential moving averages and seven different levels of time frame support and resistances like people just feel naked and so the way I trade is so freeing to me because I understand that so many people are scared to even do this that that&#39;s an edge in and of itself right doing things that most people don&#39;t like to do and finding success in it and so going back to this so if I understand that the extreme of either side of these ranges create a confirmation entry or a high probable trade these also won&#39;t present themselves a lot right they won&#39;t they won&#39;t always happen because even like this trade uh in this session here you can see on Wednesday July 3rd we fulfilled the 78% but did we have a trade to the downside did we have a short absolutely not that&#39;s why I use my objective way of trading because or my leoc CTIC distributions the price because this allows me to not to get faked out right I&#39;m not just as soon as price hits 78 blindly shorting as soon as we hit here just to get ripped up and stopped out right not I&#39;m not doing that I&#39;m waiting until my distribution tells me that okay we are most likely going to the downside and you can see here we fell outside of that am session so this is no longer valid because keep in mind this is only for am session okay so if I get a short here that we&#39;re in a completely new set of data now we&#39;re not in the AM session anymore we never got a trade here and so now PM is what I would be focusing on but here if I was looking for a confirmation entry there&#39; be no entry right and so now let&#39;s Loop all of this back into midnight open so to increase the frequency to have a little bit more trade frequency while also maintaining a confirmation confirmation entry a higher quality entry this is where I want you all to if you get anything from this session today if you get anything from how I view price or looking at how I trade or anything like that this is how I want you all to understand studying price stop studying price and saying you&#39;re studying price to increase the performance of a model because one that is completely a myth you will never increase or decrease a performance of anything you&#39;re just creating new probabilities but I want you to look at price and study price in terms of objective reactions and objective ways that you can see the extremes of price because that&#39;s how the market moves like ladies and gentlemen I&#39;m sorry if this again if if this offends somebody out there I&#39;m not trying to offend anybody but this is how the market moves the market moves by creating extremes right creating extremes and then reverting back to them aka mean reversion how do you think structure is formed right if you make a higher high and a higher low why do you think this higher high and higher low is created okay because price creates a statistic and it reverts back to the average distribution of that statistic AKA it creates structure right there there that is the most simplest form of describing how how the market moves and so that&#39;s that&#39;s how I do it that&#39;s how I trade and so let&#39;s use a few more little data points here to find a high quality extreme quality trade um versus just a normal trade so on the 5th of Wednesday you can see and I just pulled the most recent day that that was just a normal day of this was a half day but I just pulled Wednesday and uh you can see this is midnight opening price now this little range right here shout out to a a really good friend that I&#39;ve been getting to know and talking to I don&#39;t know if he wants me to shout him out or not so I won&#39;t mention his name but on this little section right here from 3 to 3:30 this is the European opening of the market okay this is the opening European market and so at 3:00 to 330 what can you what can you even think even just think of it&#39;s like in the New York Market the first 30 minutes of the New York Market is extremely volatile right if you understand that the first 30 minutes of anything what look even look at the most traditional fundamental ways of trading open range breakout trading was has been something that we have been using for years since electronic trading was even first a thing right open range breakouts and open range trading has been a way that everything a lot of people&#39;s used and so you can see in just this little example right here look at 9:30 9:30 to 10:00 look at how volatile just that first 30 minutes is and so it&#39;s the same thing here this is the same it&#39;s the same concept it&#39;s just a different market and so what I&#39;ve been looking at and studying is you have this 3 to 3:30 first 30 minutes of that European market you have midnight open and then you have settlement price right here which is that 1615 price and the settlement price is just the final it&#39;s the settlement it&#39;s as soon as every one of these markets start to close down right they&#39;re settling their final prices and so that&#39;s a very important little time too and when you see that all three of these line up and again I&#39;m not you don&#39;t have to understand the semantics behind why market makers do this and blah blah again people get way too caught up in the semantics of why stuff moves because that does not make you money what makes you money is executing how can you execute on objective analysis objective data and so the objective data is I want you guys to think of this entire thing as a Zone okay we have 1615 here all the way to midnight or actually the below that little Zone here it just creates a Zone just like midnight and so what I&#39;ve been studying and collecting data on as you can see when we kind of just like with midnight right just like with midnight when we create an extreme we revert back to the mean AKA retracing to midnight 65 to 68% of the time it&#39;s the same thing with this Zone and this create creates the ability to as I trade midnight open with just normal pricing if that midnight open becomes a statistic for that day so like in this example here we retraced a midnight we fulfilled that statistic of 65 to 68% but now what did I tell you guys after I&#39;m done trading midnight I also trade the distribution of price and so a couple of my community members in the pack trade group they were trying to find ways to increase risk while just getting evaluations within the prop firm space done a little bit quicker right and I tell people this all the time you have to understand where you&#39;re at in your trading career before I&#39;m about to say anything else you have to be mature enough to understand where you are at when it comes to engaging with price and when it comes to trading these prop firm accounts when it comes to trading live Capital if you are not mature enough and real enough to yourself to understand that you are not in any way sh or form at a position in your journey to just quickly pass an evaluation if you have never became funded before your goal should not be to quickly pass an eval on a prop firm it just shouldn&#39;t you need to go through the process of treating that like an actual cash account so that way when you do pass the first time even the second time right once you get a couple notches under your belt of passing an evaluation to the standard of a prop firm that builds a level of confidence that no data can never provide because you have done it you&#39;ve lived it you&#39;ve done it you got the story you got the T-shirt you you can now say that you have met the criteria and the profitability standards of any prop firm that you traded with and so when you&#39;re treading that live capital account that live funded account whether it&#39;s a live actual cash account or not I don&#39;t care right we all we all agree most of them are simulated but when I say funded you guys know what I mean when you&#39;re trading that funded account you now have the ability to respect it more because you went through the process of trading it the right way if you&#39;re going to sit here and game the system and try to pass an eval the firstever time you&#39;ve gotten funded and you&#39;re focusing on the outcome versus the process I promise you you&#39;re going to put yourself farther than where you left off than where you started because all you&#39;re going to do is you&#39;re going to go in circles you&#39;re going to get try to get a funded account then you&#39;re then you&#39;re going to psychologically over risk and try to do all this crazy stuff to get a pay out and you&#39;re going to blow it and you&#39;re going to wonder why you&#39;re back to where you I&#39;m telling you man I&#39;ve been there done that and everyone else has to okay everyone it&#39;s it&#39;s a perfect if I could just bet on a 100% uh win rate it&#39;s betting on people that Rush evaluations in the prop firm space to just try to get a payout they&#39;re always going to fail I mean it&#39;s it&#39;s so common it&#39;s so freaking common and so in a situation like this what we&#39;re going to be going over is the context of areas that you can increase risk but do it in a statistical based manner instead of just taking either distribution just to try to increase your risk and make more money because if you&#39;re taking and and I tell people in the pack trade group now this is something specifically for the pack trade group if you take these trades right and you just want to objectively increase your risk okay you&#39;re focusing on the performance and not so much on the context of the model and remember what I said at the beginning of this make sure when you&#39;re when you&#39;re looking at these markets think three-dimensionally think like the people that are the minority the 10% and how can you take anything and and wrap it into a 10% way of thinking instead of a 90% way of thinking and so if you want to squeeze more out of this way of trading and and and you want to use this in to your advantage instead of just finding any way to increase risk to get an evaluation done quicker right objectively just use the data use the extremes of the range and so we can see here this creates absolute A+ balls deep setups of of taking the extremes of either side of these of this uh distribution and so you can see here it created like this range right we have midnight open settlement and then the three to 330 European opening market and we have all three of these aligned look at what happens when we become when we create an extreme uh below these these these three little pois points of interest whatever you want to call it it creates a beautiful rubber band snapping like effect right and then this is where when you operate in the extremes of these look at what happens I mean you want you want your 10 points you want 20 points I mean it&#39;s it&#39;s and this is just not one example I&#39;m not cookie cutting this you can see this happening all the time and I&#39;m collecting a ton of data on this right now and you can see create this range here look at this bullish distribution here look at that midnight was right here and so when you have all of these aligning like that it just creates a beautiful scenario for where price is is coming too so you hear people all the time talk about multi-time Frame Alignment and all that stuff when there&#39;s just so many different probabilities on each time frame guys there there really is like look at this if I go to a different time frame right now I&#39;m going to have different probabilities of every single one of these distribution trades but if I stay on the same time frame right and I just use an anchored objective constant just like in a math equation right just like in a math equation what did I tell you guys all the time in algebra 101 what did I say if you have constants those create the equ that that makes the equation better it creates it easier to solve if you have more constants in an equation the equation now becomes more objectively easier to solve if I tell you to use a fair value order block with a market shift on the 5 minute time frame with a 1 hour bearish Trend everyone in there&#39;s 36 people here watching this live every single person I promise you is going to have a different entry every single person they&#39;re going to be all over the place somebody&#39;s going to do this and think this is a market structure here when this person said no that&#39;s not actually a market structure shift because it actually happened here and this person over here is going to say well no we were drawing off the The Horseshoe liquid pull here with the loopy loop fa value Gap here so that like there&#39;s going to be 70,000 different ways viewing it but when you have an objective constant midnight settlement 3 to 330 range it&#39;s it&#39;s the same thing every day everyone has 3 to 330 on their chart everyone has midnight everyone has this settlement price and so just like when you trade these midnight retracements it there&#39;s nothing nothing&#39;s changed right this isn&#39;t like an additional model it&#39;s just a way to view the extremes of the of price in and using statistics to your favor to then increase the risk if that provides itself if that situation happens and so like even on this way on this day here right You&#39; be like well Austin would you still take this long even though we&#39;re in the absolutely you know why because at the end of the day I have a 65 to 68% probability of being correct to midnight open and so on this day here on Monday July 4th we actually took this trade and this is still a beautiful trade we took some draw down and then we ended up winning the trade right here because dollar cost averaging is one of the most beautiful it&#39;s the it&#39;s I think Albert Einstein said when you use midnight open with dollar cost averaging it&#39;s like the 10th wonder of the world he said that and if you say I&#39;m lying then you&#39;re just a hater like it&#39;s just it&#39;s so beautiful like look at this I took two micro contracts here we took a little bit of heat and yes I said little bit because this was like $300 to $400 on a 150k account old boohoo oh my God red numbers oh my God I can&#39;t I can&#39;t handle it and people are like oh that&#39;s Martingale no it&#39;s not and so dollar cost average again here at 10:01 entry price here dollar cost average number three 1018 brings me 1018 right here average cost cost was there brings it brings my average cost down to here and look at what you know look at exactly where price came up to and then rejected the statistical profitability that my model has said my because out of hundreds hundreds dude hundreds of if not thousands of Trades 0.13% distribution in favor of any direction to midnight is just stupid high probability stupid High consistent hit rate and then when you add the powers of dollar cost averaging 25 or 25 points or 31% because 25 points 5 years ago is going to be different than 25 points five years from now right but 0.13% is always going to be 0.13% and so you can see this playing out and then guess what happens guess what happens when we operate outside of this little range that I&#39;ve been studying and then and guys this is new like I&#39;ve just been studying this and looking at this and because of the connection that I&#39;ve been making and amazing people that I&#39;ve been networking with that also use statistics this is what happens when you surround yourself with people that understand the same stuff that you do and you just grow together I mean if I didn&#39;t create the pack trade group I would have never even found this right and look at this created this Zone we operate out outside of the extreme of this Zone and so if I wanted now that I hit profit here now that I I hit my my 25 points do I want to take this short to the downside I want to let I want to ask you guys right here you don&#39;t even have to be a p pack Trader just say yes or no in the den chat I see some PE I see a question in the den chat I&#39;ll get to it if you guys do have questions ask them in the den just say yes or no in the in the den chat would you take this short right here knowing what I just told you guys after you hit your 25 points would you want to take this distribution to the downside I&#39;ll zoom out a little bit so you can see Scott no no Chains No Dale no exactly right you don&#39;t have to be a pack you don&#39;t have to be a genius everyone just answered the same thing I gave you guys like a 10 minute 15 minute little block of instruction of of this little range right here and within 10 to 15 minutes you guys have seen the objective nature of a high high quality trade that can you can increase your risk on and so in a situation like this this is actually a perfect example I wasn&#39;t even trying to cookie cut this or take a trade that just fits my narrative I just was I just noticed this and I&#39;m kind of saying it live with this recording is this would be a trade that let&#39;s see did this even hit still this still hit I mean again because I&#39;m only shooting for 10 points for these shorts so even though this still hit you could objectively put more risk on on a confirmation trade versus a risk entry and so this is a perfect example of a risk trade a risk entry trade where you&#39;re trading the expansion of this range and then what is this on a Monday Monday am distribution is 78% 78% oh my God actually no this so now look I want you guys to just look at this I I literally am doing this live recording I did not even prep get this prepped at all look at this 78% Monday 78% we op operated at the extreme of the range look at where we started reversing from look at we started from you can&#39;t make this stuff up we came down dumped 78% worth and then we C we we did all the way to 091 but we know that the data tells us the extreme the left and right limit is 78% we started melting down we came back up melted down and hit the0 78% distribution for the morning and what do you know baby that long right here now has became a a stupid balls deep freaking betting the house no I&#39;m joking but such a high probability long and so now I would ask you um where is Eddie in the chat here is Eddie okay Eddie&#39;s in here and then chill FX chill FX and then the other people that we were kind of talking about this too right I would even I would ask you now when it comes to trading these distributions where you&#39;re trying to get these EV vals done a little bit quicker whatever the case may be right look at just the quality of this now you understand instead of just because you understand the context behind this and you understand how to read data from a holistic point of view you don&#39;t have to sit here and just you get a distribution and you&#39;re like okay all right I don&#39;t know the the probabilities of this but I&#39;m just going to go increased risk because this does have a high hit rate but I don&#39;t know the context and probabilities of each one of these but now you can see this you can see this for what it is and you just it it&#39;s like you now know how to increase risk in proportion to to statistical logic and this is what I want each and every one of you all in the pack trade group or just in the community of the pack trading Community this is how I want you guys to start thinking this is what I want you guys to start like the wheels to start spinning in your brain okay is stop looking at trading as increasing win rates and increasing profits you will always always always fail always fail because you&#39;re just one you&#39;re over optimizing for past data for future performance and guess what every single disclosure says and and when you invest into any investment fund guess what they say they say past performance does not equate to Future results it&#39;s the same thing that people in the retail space are doing and I say retail I&#39;m a retail Trader too guys I&#39;m just saying and generalizing in the retail space people over optimize the crap out of their strategies they over optimize the crap out of the way they trade this is being in tune with the market it doesn&#39;t matter if you&#39;re bullish Market Market consolidating Market bearish doesn&#39;t matter if you want to do this on the 5 minute 10 minute 12 minute loop-de-loop minute doesn&#39;t matter just because I&#39;m showing you guys this on the one minute does that make it any better than the five no it&#39;s however you want to consistently engage with price with consistent probabilities there is no magic time frame this will work with us30 NASDAQ gold it whatever but guess what you have to put in the work to study the asset and find the probabilities I am telling every single one of these little data points is specific to NASDAQ right every single one of these the the distribution shooting for 10 to 25 points depending on if it&#39;s a midnight to distribution trade uh the the the probabilities of midnight all of this is specific for Nasdaq and guess what people do and it literally breaks my heart every single time people ask me this does this work with gold like it it just it it it infuriates me because people are so F and it&#39;s not to do with the person that asks that that&#39;s a great question if you&#39;re just complete if you don&#39;t really understand the data but it infuriates me because we have been embedded in our psychology in our brain in the retail space because you go on social media and and YouTube and all these other places Twitter and and we have been brainwashed to believe that that&#39;s how you&#39;re supposed to look at it what&#39;s the win rate what&#39;s the profit factor of that is this is it is the 15 minute better than the 5 minute it it all works it&#39;s all just different probabilities and you have to find the probabilities that best fit your plan your session when you want to trade the asset that has the best probabilities at a specific time if you&#39;re in London and you primarily trade London then it makes absolutely no sense to back test NASDAQ on the New York it all is just dependent on your personal business so let&#39;s go and and look at a few more examples here and so you can see the window here is this helpful um or am I kind of like let me know in the chat is this before we keep on going is this like helpful am I or am I just rambling uh I want to make sure this is like this is relatable to your guy to you guys and you&#39;re not just like super clueless because I want to make sure you guys are on the same level I don&#39;t I don&#39;t want to be talking at level 10 when you&#39;re like dude can you like dumb it down just a little bit okay all right it&#39;s great 100% all right sweet sweet sweet okay um so question Alex T do what&#39;s up man would you consider modifying distribution times in order to meet the certain highs and lows that are made in the day would you consider modifying distribution times in order to meet CH certain highs and lows that are made in the day I&#39;m not sure could you kind of expand on that I don&#39;t know what you mean by modifying distribution times in order yeah I I&#39;m not sure I understand the the question maybe you could give an example top down breaking down is my favorite indicator hey you guys indicator right check it out literally you can you can put in in the midnight snap 15 same time frame you just got to do one hour before whatever if you&#39;re if you&#39;re on a Future&#39;s asset right so NQ is a Futures asset so seven represents eight uh oh this is supposed to be 1015 which represents 1115 15 which is the 16 and now if you put 15 minute here it it doesn&#39;t work it&#39;ll crash it and so there&#39;s another indicator called uh ICT NY open and I just put 615 to 1615 to 1616 it kind of shows that but uh I mean you can use the midnight snap and it still shows you the the the relative area and then obviously midnight snap midnight open um so yeah there&#39;s there&#39;s already this this out here and so you can see did we already go over this day got midnight here and so again big Zone we start out at 8 o&#39; 8 o&#39; we operated we we were inside that but then look at what happened look at what started the motivation to then come down to midnight open and look at where we chopped up from and so we had a short right here at 8:31 and so this gives you objective analysis objective data everyone here you should be thinking and salivating in the back of your brain you should be like foaming at the mouth after everything I&#39;ve just showed you guys you should have seen this short just now in the back of your mind if you were paying attention you should been like dude this is a this is a short that I would go balls to the wall in because the data tells you this is a high probability trade and now guess what going back to Eddie and chill FX and all of you guys that are U talking about using the distributions uh to increase your risk well guess what happens look at what we look at what happened we we fulfilled the midnight data and now if you&#39;re looking and you&#39;re in the market for a distribution trade well first F first things first am Friday distribution is 0.92% so 0.92% looks like this and so current in current market conditions here right we were here and so because we didn&#39;t know what was about to happen we can&#39;t see into the future unless you&#39;re Nancy Loi um we only distributed so far 58% and so right now we would be putting the top of the the top of this here because now we&#39;re in a downtrend and so we&#39;re we&#39;re seeing if price wants to break to the bottom side okay and now you also see we have midnight European Zone here and I I think he doesn&#39;t mind so shout out to veteran uh his if you guys want to get give him a follow I&#39;m going to post this on my Twitter because he&#39;s a he&#39;s a super cool dude veteran pvi um I don&#39;t think he&#39;ll M he&#39;ll mind if I shout him out he was the one that even gave me this idea of looking at the European opening market and uh and the settlement price and I was like well dude this is this is genius because it creates a little Zone he&#39;s he uses statistics just like I do and it creates this little Zone here and look at what happens as soon as we uh retrace the midnight open and now I&#39;m looking for distribution trades well now you best believe this long right here because we created a a rubber band like effect because we operate outside of this range here and I&#39;m wanting to still take advantage of this objective 0.92% expansion this this long has now became a high probability long like I&#39;m shooting for 10 points but now I can increase my risk now instead of because on these distribution trades I&#39;ll do one Mini for 10 points and give myself three dollar cost averages with One Mini because obviously one minis have more risk than a micro and so like on One Mini here I&#39;ll make uh 200 bucks for 10 points but now if I understand that I&#39;ve operated below this I&#39;m still in tune to make 0.92% distribution so that could be to the upside who knows it&#39;s still this much that 10 points can now I can do one of two two things I can either make this 10 points worth more money do one to three contracts I mean I&#39;m just giving you guys brainstorming examples I&#39;m not saying anything in stone or whatever but now I can either increase my risk for the same statistical profit Target and where do I get 10 points from guys I I do everything for a reason everything for a reason and so if I if I understand let me put this data in here if I understand that between 8 to 9 8 to noon my leptic distributions of price okay my objective way of looking it price it can provide in order 0.1 to 0.11% dis uh price in my favor and what does that look like from a points perspective 0.1 to 0.11 we&#39;ll take the smaller of that&#39;s 20 points my indicator can provide 20 points in in a systematic process of distribution of either side of the market and so now I combine all of this data I combine the extremes of the market I combine the midnight opening price I combine the average distribution of price I&#39;m just shooting for 10 points that is literally half of the average and if this is the com high common high high probability if this is a high uh this is a very common price Target and then take a look at this right here down here out of all of this data the mode or what has happened the most right going back to math math class in first grade the mode is what the mode is what happens most of the time the most common statistic the most common data point so if I give you guys if I were to give you five five 1 or 41 2 5 89 okay if I were to tell you hey what&#39;s the average of this data set and then you would take five you go five plus 5+ 4 + 1+ 2+ 5 plus 8 plus 9 and then how many data points do we have here 1 2 3 4 five six seven 8 divid that&#39;s 39 divided 8 that gives you 17 and I completely did that wrong because I forgot 5 + 5 plus 4 plus 1 plus 2 plus 5 plus 8 + 9 / 7 or 8 yeah 4.875 so the the the average of this data set is 4.875 now i&#39; ask you is there a 4.875 in this data set no right this is just the average of the data that you have okay so the mode is what just occurred the most five right so you have five that occurred the most these are hard price targets these are specific price targets that literally has hit not the average but has hit and so now this creates a range okay this this creates an extreme of either side of the of the range that&#39;s actually a bad visual here&#39;s the left side the left limit and here&#39;s the right limit and so now I understand that my probabilities my realm of probabilities the highest most highest balls deep freaking holy crap Mount Olympus loop-de-loop theory model strategy Extravaganza is in between this threshold because I understand that within this threshold right here is what lies the highest probability if I understand that five anywhere between 4.75 to5 if I understand that this is the highest common guess what I&#39;m doing I&#39;m not try I&#39;m not shooting for this I&#39;m shooting for whatever&#39;s below this because if this is high probability then now I would shoot for I don&#39;t know three let&#39;s say 3.5 and now if this is the highest of the high this is my this is GE bro this is the best right this is the best the most probable outcome that I&#39;m going to get hit and so now re looping this back to my data points here that&#39;s all I&#39;m doing is if I understand that my my entry model provides 0.1 to 0.11% distribution in my favor of Any Given trade then I&#39;m going to have that so that way if this is above average or this is above average this is the this is the common this is the above average and so now my profit Target is set in stone I&#39;m not saying because here&#39;s the problem with most of you guys out here that&#39;s trading discretionary you&#39;re like I&#39;ve seen it happen before I I&#39;ve seen it happen last week it&#39;s called recency bias if you don&#39;t have data to tell me exactly how you trade and and and the and the stats to back up how you trade happens this many times and that this probability I don&#39;t care about a sniper entry that you took I genuinely am not impressed with a a bottom that you caught or a top that you caught if you can&#39;t show me in your model the percentage and the probability that is scalable and that&#39;s how I trade is a way to scale the probabilities that I already have how can I scale this scalability doesn&#39;t come from discretion scalability comes from repetitive processes that you can have uh repeated outcomes from and this is a way that you can do that is you can have scalability you can have the ability to scale a model we don&#39;t want to again thinking back to what I said at the beginning of this you&#39;re not here to pass a single prop from account you&#39;re here to trade as if you were trading a sixf fig live cash account you&#39;re here to trade like you want to be a professional okay and so now looping this all back I could say okay if I understand that my 10 points or 05% distribution is a stupid High probable profit Target and then I also understand that in relation to where I&#39;m at with price this is a stupid High reversal area here because the data tells me that it is then now I can increase my risk here without taking on Extreme risk over here to collect a high probable profit Target I mean it&#39;s just beautiful right it&#39;s just beautiful and and even if you took this trade right here and guess what else I know I also know the statistics of my average draw down because my average draw down tells me because you be like lost and it&#39;s great if you know your profit Target but if price takes youus 70,000 just to get that little 05% that&#39;s probably not the best right well I got that figured out too my average uh if because I tell it right here 1% right how much am I willing for price to go against me with with also taking into consideration my max daily loss and my dollar cost averages I take all of that into consideration because I understand and I operate from the realization that I&#39;m not trying to pick tops and bottoms I will carry some draw down in some of these trades I just have to understand what&#39;s the average draw down average draw down tells me it&#39;s roughly you can see roughly .14 098 03909 2 you know you can kind of see the average is around 02 and so if the average is around 02 what did this one do this one didn&#39;t even come close to that meaning I can carry on average 2% so now I have to make my risk be able to carry at least on average 2% risk or I just have to be okay with cutting the loss you know it&#39;s it&#39;s it&#39;s however you want to manage this freaking risk and so even in this trade here if I were to go three contracts going back to this three contracts what&#39;s the most that this trade experienced before hitting 05% uh what is this a th 1,080 right but if I&#39;m trading a 150k account giving myself a max daily loss of 15 or whatever dude why not I&#39;m not a I&#39;m not a baby I don&#39;t care of taking a loss I don&#39;t care about taking a loss guess what as I&#39;m researching this I just drisk if I if I am not comfortable taking on $1,095 of draw down you don&#39;t have to do it you just lower your contract sizing now that&#39;s only a 730 Max draw down for that trade or maybe you&#39;re okay with doing one contract but you shoot for more uh for more points because you can see that I can get about 20 20 points on average so instead of shooting for uh a profit Target of 05 you just increase the overall distance and now that becomes even that prob profit Target becomes higher right and you can also now take on more risk like there&#39;s so many freaking ways you can take your risk management and tailor it to data let&#39;s look at some more examples do we have any other questions before I keep on going here uh what time candle do you consider settlement 1615 uh no need for a smaller stop loss no need for a smaller stop loss exactly Scott is now upset because he has to back test all weekend uh we will Deep dive into this the ends absolutely uh hey Austin could it be possible to do this in steps like it&#39;s 8151 oh yeah dude let&#39;s do that let&#39;s just scrunch the the chart down it&#39;s good it&#39;s good good thing here and then we&#39;ll just go to a random day I&#39;ll just stop now all right Thursday June 20th all right so step number one just like normal right let&#39;s turn this draw down off all right so it&#39;s funny I choose a day in that we&#39;re inside this range so perfect example right I&#39;m I&#39;m not letting this over optimize my model to where I can&#39;t trade right I&#39;m still taking this short okay we&#39;re we&#39;re starting out let&#39;s go to the 1 hour time frame just like we normally would where it&#39;s uh 7 o&#39;clock here right we have bearish liquidity right here dropping down to the one minute time frame see if we re okay sweet we ret midnight open so now I wouldn&#39;t even be looking for a midnight open trade I&#39;d just be looking for distribution distribution meaning the expansion of this range and so if I understand that the expansion of this range on a Thursday am is 78% let&#39;s go to like well I&#39;m on a Futures Contract that that&#39;s the issue and so it&#39;s going to probably stop printing here that&#39;s why I don&#39;t I only have one day let&#39;s go to like a thre minute uh uh SE 75% okay so 75% is roughly what the past few THS days have provided again I&#39;m just doing this rough quick and dirty okay so 0 75 this is our left and right limit of this distribution for the am session we have uh midnights here we have settlement we have the range right here okay so here&#39;s the footprint I&#39;ll label this footprint all right and then I will also create a Zone from the [Music] 1615 oh shoot this is a holiday let&#39;s do a different day this is a holiday so you&#39;re not going to have that 1615 settlement price you see how it goes from noon to 13,800 so let&#39;s go to let&#39;s go to this day I&#39;m not cherry picking uh it&#39;s just not a good example of because it was a holiday so let&#39;s go to this day all right Tuesday Tuesday let&#39;s go to three minute here Tuesday is 67% of the last six Tuesdays 67% that&#39;s the range that we&#39;re expecting starting on the 1 hour We&#39;re above midnight so I&#39;m looking for shorts we have bear liquidity all the way here and I&#39;m just encompassing all of these Wicks okay to show me a zone of sell pressure of exactly objectively where price is most likely going to start the Catalyst of midnight open and then we are above all of all three of these we&#39;re above the European open to the first 30 minutes we&#39;re above midnight and we&#39;re also above settlement creates kind of like a zone right here okay so now we we understand this this potential day here is going to create a beautiful short opportunity because we&#39;re above all of this stuff we&#39;re above midnight which gives us a 65 to 68% probability we&#39;re Above This European Zone and we&#39;re also above the settlement so this gives us a high probable midnight open retracement and then if we break to the bottom side of this then this gives us a high probability distribution trade or if we come up with the buses right either way it gives us a high probability distribution trade after that midnight statistic becomes F filled so now we&#39;re only looking for shorts here&#39;s your short uh right here at 8:33 midnight opening price was here yep so still still in play 25 points or 0.13% 0.12% whatever 0.12 to 0.13 whatever that is for 25 points that now becomes even higher probability and then we hit it right here 25 points and now we&#39;d be looking for the distribution okay so instead of taking either side of the distribution if you wanted your confirmation risk entry or your confirmation entry with increased risk you&#39;d be waiting to see if we operate from the extreme to the downside here okay so we still we&#39;re still waiting we&#39;re still waiting for the extreme of this Zone maybe we don&#39;t get it I don&#39;t know I&#39;m not cherry picking trade so we may not get it okay so now we&#39;re in the EXT right here right here look at this this is like statistical alignment bro people talk about multi-timeframe horse crap alignment this is statistical alignment right I just made this up I copyrighted it you got to you got to pay me if you ever want to use that term okay you got vinmo me five bucks for every time you use it so we break to the downside all right we break to the downside below the high probability area that we going to retrace back into we we broke the 67% distribution right here and oh my God look at where price stopped at it&#39;s almost like the market operates in a mean reversion statistical basis 10 points there you go what else do you need did I need to do a fair value Gap did I did I have to draw a fair value Gap in here to make okay so we operated from this fair value Gap I mean look at that we&#39;ll do another day uh before we do another day let me see if you got other questions Eddie did that was that helpful doing it like a stepbystep basis like that let&#39;s see let&#39;s see let&#39;s see Johnny tsunami I love that name by the way seems great but would like to know where I can study where you&#39;re getting everything in the approach um check out the Google sheet in free edu great question Johnny let me let me share it here uh pack it&#39;s called pack trade group weight list but it&#39;s I made it again I made it to for that way for you to see the the spot that you&#39;re at but this also has my a toz playlist this has uh my threads this has every everything that I&#39;ve ever done content wise on how I use statistics it&#39;s it&#39;s a free resource has everything right there it has uh and that also has the link to um how to get my indicator so it it&#39;s all right there crypto norski is not sleeping tonight grateful if we don&#39;t have your indicator how do we calculate the distribution range oh great bro you don&#39;t need my indicator like so this one right here this is an added benefit to being in the pack trade group but just get a Google sheet you can get a Google sheet because you&#39;re just wanting to stay in tune with the current market right every single Sunday Saturday Friday whatever spare time you have on the weekends whatever day is something that you can stay consistent to make it just a part of your weekly battle Rhythm and in the military we say battle Rhythm it&#39;s just a it&#39;s a thing that we do consistently every single day or week okay make it a weekly in a battle rhythm in your week to every single weekend measure the previous three to four weeks of price okay every single Monday through Friday take about 10 to 30 minutes okay burn you may burn like five calories doing it and split it up into am and then if you trade PM I have pm distribution here just because some of you guys trade PM I don&#39;t trade PM but if you want to see it there it is if you only trade am it&#39;s going to be 10 times easier because you only got to do 8 to 12 highlight 8 to 12 get a sessions indicator or however you want to do it and just use the price range tool knock it out on Google what was the past three four weeks all right past three four weeks uh and then write down every single distribution every single Monday every single Tuesday and then find your averages it&#39;s very simple this makes sense snipy nice uh yeah like for example 6:00 to 9:00 a. if there is a strong Trend during those times in order to mean revert if price overextends Why not start why not setting start distribution times at 1615 and finding the time when it is statistic ially over extended okay so what what you&#39;re asking Alex is basically if I do settlement to uh what like 08 I mean it could completely possibility I&#39;m just sharing with you guys my my studying of of of a of price so you&#39;re asking if I did something like this like 165 to8 and then now I measure during the O overextension so we have the past uh what is this what day are we on Monday previous Monday is 0 45% 0.45 so we operated below distribution so we didn&#39;t have a really a reversion to the mean but look at what happened we did break it right there so I mean maybe it could be a thing I&#39;m not saying I&#39;m not saying it couldn&#39;t be um but I&#39;ll look at it could be I don&#39;t know the the biggest thing is I just want to keep this as simple as possible right I most simple process is what&#39;s going to make the most money for me um so did we do Monday did we do this day I don&#39;t think we did so here&#39;s another example of a a day where you could go normal risk on your midnight because it&#39;s still I&#39;m still going to take this short right you have this zone right here here&#39;s the European Zone to settlement here&#39;s your like retracement Zone and you can see look at this we&#39;re we we start out inside that zone but it&#39;s it&#39;s not like I&#39;m not going to take this trade right I&#39;m just going to take it with lower risk or my normal risk because I&#39;m still very profitable doing that and so I would take my 25 points right here okay my objective bearish distribution and now on a Monday June 17th a.m We have a 66% distribution 66 let&#39;s build that out 6 six right here and then we would be operating okay so we&#39; still be within range and then we would just zoom out and if we wanted to trade the expansion of this 66% and we were here all right we&#39;ve fulfilled the statistic I don&#39;t want to take this long even though it looks like this hit profit 10 points yeah look at this this still hit 10 points darn hit 10 points or you could just do with normal risk here just understanding that you&#39;re most likely going to go down but either way right 10 points this one hit 10 points this one hit 10 points but if you want your high confirmation High probable extreme Extravaganza right then and and and you don&#39;t want to take that then look at what happened we came below this Zone you&#39;re waitting now now you&#39;re in the extreme you&#39;re operating in the extreme you&#39;re waiting for confirmation you have your bullish confirmation right here 10 points so maybe you do two minis I don&#39;t know I&#39;m just I&#39;m just spitballing that&#39;d be like what 400 bucks for two mini 10 points yeah 400 bucks and then the most you took on right there was about 420 bucks so this was literally like in in terms of risk to reward even though you should never measure your entire trading performance on a risk to reward single trade basis but that&#39;s neither here or there um you traded pretty much a one to one right there and then if you wanted more distributions uh you have another long right well no that&#39;s not valid because that&#39;s a bearish candle um what theck what that was see okay any other questions see you later Dale have a good day uh please can you explain how you dollar cost average yeah I use my distributions to tell me when I need to add to my position if I&#39;m in draw down all right so it&#39;s very simple very very simple if I if I&#39;m in a like let&#39;s say I took this short right here to midnight open and I experienced some draw down I&#39;m two micros okay big whoop I&#39;m going to see some red numbers oh my God sue me right and so I&#39;m just waiting for instead of take closing this trade and taking a realized loss just waiting for price to correct giving me objective distribution to the downside again and once I get another distribution to the downside I uh add to my short so like let&#39;s say this this little leg down here was another wolf now my 25 points is worth more money and now it would be the average cost would be here instead of here that&#39;s all I&#39;m doing and then another thing that I&#39;m doing is my contract sizing is dynamic it&#39;s not it&#39;s not static right I&#39;m not doing one one one one one because all you&#39;re doing when you do that static dollar cost average type of way of trading you&#39;re just they&#39;re not being meaningful right you&#39;re they&#39;re not you&#39;re just going to be going exact and then as you build contracts right if you&#39;re doing one one one one by the time like let&#39;s say this was a$d doll cost average well if math this would be one this would be one that&#39;s two okay so now I&#39;m two contracts deep right here do you think if I add one contract here that&#39;s going to pull my average cost up a lot absolutely not if I do one contract here and I&#39;m already two contracts deep it&#39;s going to pull my average like this it&#39;s going to do nothing it&#39;s gonna it&#39;s going to do nothing of pulling my average cost up and so I&#39;ll start out like if I&#39;m doing a 150k right uh two two 3 three four five six and I&#39;ll dynamically increase like that so that way they&#39;re going in favor of the contract sizing and then if I just lose the trade I lose the trade right it&#39;s not a big deal uh where do you mark the amount of distributions for the day where do you mark out the distribution amount of distribution for the day I just Ed this price range Tool uh Mr mrm AB I just Ed the price range tool dat says into that thank you so much with this expansion percentage do you think the more sessions you have data for the more helpful or do you keep in line with the last number yeah I think um I I operate from the belief Johnny that when it comes to the distribution okay not not not the midnight open because the midnight open is constant right keep in mind the difference when it comes to data okay when you&#39;re talking from a statistical basis you have to make sure the context uh operates from the same consistency of the data points okay if I&#39;m using a constant then the historical data does play a big role because that shows you the consistency if I&#39;m operating from a variable I need to know the data of of the current market climate right because because the markets change the market conditions change all the time and the distributions change all the time and so I want to know the current market climate just like how if you were to check the weather right you would want to know the current market you you&#39;d want to know the current climate of your environment not the historical 10 10 10 plus year average of tomorrow right you would want to know what&#39;s happening tomorrow because the seasons are Ever Changing just like the market is but if I were to ask you what time do you wake up in the morning to get to work on time you would say 8:00 doesn&#39;t matter the time difference doesn&#39;t matter the day of the year you want to wake up at 8 o00 every single morning to get to work on time because statistically if you take into account getting up and and brushing your teeth eating breakfast putting your clothes on driving to work you&#39;re taking all of that data into consideration to make sure you are having a consistent hit rate AKA getting to work on time you see how trading relates to Everyday Life you see how it&#39;s so beautiful and so it&#39;s the same thing here so if I understand and I operate from a statistical thought process I need to operate using current market conditions not not what inq did 10 years ago on average so exactly what Quantum just said because he he was answering your question as well he said my personal opinion would be to keep tabs on both both but the recent data is more beneficial exactly and exact it&#39;s it&#39;s it&#39;s current market conditions paired with historical Trends or historical uh not Trend historical I guess bias you could say I hate using the word bias but historically 65 to 68% of the time if you have a bias above or below midnight you&#39;re going to be correct right and then you compare compare that with what we&#39;re doing here so good question um hey Austin rememberest when you did the Five Points you tapped in some data and the back testing was mad quick how did you do that exactly yeah so this little tool here if you put in like let&#39;s say let&#39;s say like this trade right here right you wanted to see at a very quick glance but you have to make sure when you&#39;re back testing this you&#39;re you&#39;re not just looking at all of the trades right you&#39;re only looking at the ones that you care about but once you get your filters in place AK all this data that we just talked about this is where this table can be kind of powerful making back testing pretty quick and so if you understand that 05% is your profit Target then you&#39;re going to put Max instead of Max distribution because from a data standpoint you&#39;re just telling it hey what&#39;s the average that you&#39;re getting between your left and right limit meaning how much you&#39;re at Max wanting to lose versus I need you to stop measuring in profit this much because it&#39;s going to skew the data if it just allows to for price to keep on going right so at a Max of 1% draw down to uh 0.1% in favor of the trade what is your average in profit that you can squeeze out of this trade between 8 to 12 so that&#39;s from a a statistical standpoint but from a back testing standpoint you can turn labels [Music] on okay and then you can put if you&#39;ve figured out that 05% is your objective criteria you can put 05 because it&#39;ll start drawing a green line here uh you see how that&#39;s drawing these green lines it&#39;ll draw that green line exactly where that takeprofit would be and then also you want to see just using the replay tool just see how many contracts could would you realistically take right so with two two two contracts on on the mini you have to see how much risk are you are you willing to take on for that trade and so if you had say a Max loss of I don&#39;t know 15,500 on a 150k account that gives you uh two losses before you lose that account and you&#39;re trying to trade it aggressively to pass the eval whatever right we&#39;re not talking about funded accounts we&#39;re talking about just getting that eval done and over with right if then now for, 1500 for two contracts that gives you 0. one n to so let&#39;s just round it up to 0.2 that gives you around 0 2% before you hit that stop loss and so now you can put 0 2% here and then you&#39;ll see the the stop loss to and the take profit right here you see this little red line it&#39;ll show you the red line and then what these labels are showing you is how much price went in favor of that trade before hitting that stop loss and so as long as this number on the yellow label is above whatever you put here or the same then you know that that&#39;s at a GL at a quick glance a take profit because it it it did it right and so like in this trade here um and this is the only reason I keep the label off because when you&#39;re back tting it does this stupid crap but right here it hit that green line before it even hit that red and so it hit objectively what it did but where we&#39;re in replay mode it throws off these labels sometimes and so it&#39;s made for just like quick glances not you know back testing with it or like or live trading with it because it&#39;ll just keep repeating those labels it&#39;s really annoying but that&#39;s how to do it awesome session today I can&#39;t stay on during the week so these testing sessions are great have to leave oh nice absolutely Dart all right I&#39;m going to stop the recording here

Transcript for:NASDAQ Back Testing Session

Transcript for:
NASDAQ Back Testing Session