Cleaning Up: Bull Case for Net Zero Transition

Introduction

• Presenter: Michael Libre
• Series: Part 2 of exploring the bull and bear cases for the Net Zero transition
• Focus: The bull case - five forces supporting the Net Zero transition

Recap of Part 1

• Bear Case: Five Horsemen challenging Net Zero:
  • Poor economics of clean solutions (except wind, solar, batteries)
  • Inadequate electrical grid
  • Rising demand for critical minerals
  • Political & social inertia
  • Predatory delay from powerful players

Bull Case: Five Superheroes of the Transition

• Based on essays by Libre for Bloomberg NEF
• Supported by Capricorn Investment Group, Liebre Foundation, etc.

Superhero 1: Exponential Growth

• Solar Growth: From annual to daily gigawatt installations in 20 years
• Cost Reductions: Dramatic drop in solar and wind costs
• Renewables Share: Increased from 1% to 15% of global power in 20 years
• New Technologies: Larger wind turbines, increasing solar manufacturing
• Battery Growth: Rapid cost and energy density improvements

Superhero 2: System Solutions

• Grid Solutions: Demand response, interconnections, diverse energy sources
• Technology: HVDC and potential superconductors
• Price Signals: Drive efficiency and reduce need for extensive grid
• Electrification: EVs and heat pumps naturally complement renewables

Superhero 3: Great Power Competition

• Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Now seeing viable decarbonization pathways
• Global Competition: US, China, Europe racing to lead Net Zero industries

Superhero 4: Disappearing Demand

• Mineral Demand Overestimated: Recycling and technological improvements
• Recycling: High rates for lithium-ion batteries
• Falling Fossil Fuel Demand: Decreased need for oil, gas, coal infrastructure

Superhero 5: Primary Energy Fallacy

• Efficiency Over Supply: Reduction in energy waste through efficient technologies
• Energy Services: Focus on delivering services rather than increasing supply

Conclusion

• Five Superheroes: Exponential growth, system solutions, competition, demand reduction, primary energy fallacy
• Societal Shift: Growing unacceptability of fossil fuel burning
• Challenge: Will these trends meet urgent climate timelines?

Additional Information

• Further Reading: Essays, reports, and links in show notes
• Call to Action: Encourage listeners to subscribe and share the podcast
• Support: Thanks to sponsors and supporters