Market Trends and Insights Overview

All right guys, welcome back to the channel. This signal has shown up not once, not twice, not three times, but four times for Bitcoin in this bull market cycle. And it's actually showing up now for Ethereum. It is about to show up for Solana and it has shown up for the stock markets breaking out into new all-time highs. It's all part of the final phase of the 18.6 year cycle. And of course, for Bitcoin, we have seen many, many gains from this point, from the low... over 500% from $15,000. And I don't think it's going to end anytime soon. However, we have discussed the possibility of corrections. So I think it's important now preparing for the corrections, mostly the mental game leading into the corrections, because this will shake the majority of people out. However, there are still signs that we have a lot further to go to the upside. So make sure you hit that like button, subscribe to the channel. if you're new here so that you can get this content in your news feed on a daily basis. We are here presenting you with the home of macro cycle analysis. I'm covering Bitcoin, cryptos, the stock markets, and the real estate cycle. We analyze all the financial markets for you here on the channel. So without further ado, here is the agenda for today. Bitcoin highest in history. We've got some massive closes happening at the moment, huge pumps on the stock markets, the US and... the global markets as well an update for gold the us real estate and economic cycle so on and so forth cryptos the market sentiment bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin true altcoin market cap and of course eth and solana so i want to start it out with the s&p 500 as we are now 18 points away from the first target level here at 100 so basically 0.3 percent you We hit another new all-time high closing week and day, closing price and highs as well on Friday. And here is the 100%. It's 6,118. This is the projection that we've had on the charts now for a couple of years going back to the October low. Essentially, that's where you can get the reading from. And we're just a few points shy of that. So does that mean we're going to collapse from this point? I don't think so. The other thing I had here was the low is in here in August. So two major things that I'm looking at. uh how much further can this go once it hits 100 and if and obviously when it's not a matter of if it's a matter of when the stock markets do eventually have a correction uh how far down do they have to go in order to invalidate the macro bull market the first point of call for me is the low in august so that one there you can see at least for the s&p 500 at around 5100 points And then anything below the old all-time high at 4,800. So a fair bit of distance to fall before any sort of signs of the cycle being over. In terms of a percentage, that would be roughly 16% to get to that low. But for the upside from here, we could again start to look at 150%. This move took just over two years. And the reference range is the COVID low to the previous old all-time high. which was actually shorter. So that's all I'm doing there is basically getting that and moving it here. So you can get a projection for where the markets could potentially go. So we've almost reached that after everyone was calling for a recession in 22, in 23. And of course the markets kept going up. So it doesn't matter what people say. It matters what the charts show us higher and higher prices. So there is 6,100, just a few points off that. Now that was the first target. Second target, 7,400 sounds. insane today, but 6,000 points sounded insane when the S&P was under 4,000 points. That was a 50% rise from there and we got it. So it's happened already. For the NASDAQ, hit new all-time highs. Let's look at the futures market. We've got that again. So new all-time high on Wednesday, new all-time high on Thursday, Friday, and here we are on Monday opening up. So Sunday night for you guys in the US, again, another new all-time high, 21,600. points. So again, the low is for me, the low is in there. If that low is broken, then it invalidates this, uh, there's a big bull market, at least for that time being, because that's one of the most critical areas right now at 17,300 points. So mark those up on your charts so that there, if there is, or I should say when there is some sort of correction. So, you know, where to start freaking out that the game is over and we all needed to get into gold and cash. Okay. Of course, I'm joking a little bit there. the game isn't entirely over but this would be a very very very weak signal if the market would break down from that point but of course you still have the previous old all-time highs for the nasdaq is back at 16 and a half thousand so not too far from that particular low For the Dow Jones, it also hit all-time highs the week before last, so end of November. And then last week, the 4th of December, we also got another very, very high price. I think it was just a couple of points higher before we've now had a couple of days down. So interesting to see what materializes from here. Could it be a three-day down signal that we used for Bitcoin that showed us how BTC was going to be underneath that old all-time high this year for quite some time. And for the volatility index, the VIX for the S&P 500, again, this is also trending down. So a good sign here for the VIX to end up in our bull market zone. Basically, the cycles are still up and the markets are still doing what they need to do. In terms of the global markets, and the German market hit a new all-time high on Monday, then Tuesday, then Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. So we are well and truly into this winner's curse phase of the market. markets are going up, hitting new all-time high prices. Obviously, real estate on a national level is doing that in the US, Australia, UK. The data continues to show that. And it doesn't necessarily mean that every single area in the country is going to go up. That's often a comment that I hear about the cycle. We're not talking about smaller areas. It's a national average there in terms of how the prices are fluctuating. So we're just looking at national averages there. So Germany is up. basically leading the charge here for Europe. France is the laggard and for the UK also trading around its highs, but not putting in the same sort of gains that Germany has been doing. Back to the US, oh sorry, back to America, sorry Canadians, we're at new all-time highs again. So Friday closed out at a daily all-time high price, a daily all-time high price as well, just with intraday. And then in terms of the weekly, also got to a new all-time high. You can see these moves are getting a little bit extended. They're also starting to close in on the ranges. So you're probably starting to see a lot of these wedges forming as the price climbs higher. And eventually you do see a bit of a correction, how big that is. That's why I'm giving you those price targets to the downside so that even if there is a correction or when there is a correction, you should know where the invalidation occurs and when it is basically just a healthy correction in the overall macro uptrend. Gold. is also holding up relatively well. We're still seeing some strength in the US dollar at 106. It has had a couple of lower closes here and then close on November was quite low. So unless it's able to close this month above the previous tops around 107 to 108, this could be a bit of a weak pattern forming for the US dollar. But for now, trends are up. We've got higher highs and higher lows across the board. The only thing that's been very weak is the Aussie dollar. but I don't think that matters to basically anyone else watching this unless you are Australian trading internationally. So here is the 18.6 year cycle, winner's curse phase. We're in that two years up. We are here. This is the last half of the game and it is basically the last quarter of the last half as well when everything continues to shoot up. We've obviously been talking about this. We've talked about it on the channel for years. Here we are and it has continued to... play out time and time again. This is where we're starting to get to, this 25-26. Let's look at late 25, not earlier in the year. However, I think there are going to be some scares in 2025, just off the back of how straight up a lot of these markets have been going. Like we saw in August, July-August, that was a pretty severe drop, 10-ish percent, and that freaked a lot of people out. That's all it took to bring up the talks of recession again. So if we were to see something like that, you can imagine what... the masses what the media what probably your favorite media i don't know economist analyst is going to be talking about they typically bring up recession again because when the market goes down people just want to hear about how the market is going down and it could go down more you have a ton of doomsday bears who are still hoping for this sort of thing but they're being silenced by the prices continuing to rise higher and higher so overall more movement to the upside is what we're seeing in the charts but when the volatility comes in, the emotions are going to get even more wild because a lot of people are missed out. They're putting their money in late and they're asking the question, should I be putting it in now? Should I be taking it out? They see a down move, they'll take it out. They see it go up again, they put it back in. You've probably heard it, especially with Bitcoin, cryptos, XRP, that sort of thing. People are just continuing to worry about their money going up and down. Let it ride out. The trend's up, let it ride out. So that leads us to crypto, bitcoins, and some of the patterns that I've been talking about here. Let's take a look at some of, I guess, the news. National Center for Public Policy Research proposes Bitcoin treasury to Amazon. I guess they're trying to follow in the steps of MicroStrategy. And for MicroStrategy, they, well, at least Michael Saylor is saying he doesn't have enough Bitcoin, still too much blue. on sailortracker.com that's basically bitcoin price in blue and then the greens are all the purchases that sailor has made i guess for micro strategy and then the green that is your average price look at his average price continuing to go up i suppose that's normal you'd see a lot of average prices continue to go up as well however this is a big one if you take the time to go through each of these little bubbles here the green bubbles this is what we specifically teach not to do, and I guess you could say, maybe I'm saying, well, is Michael Saylor dumb? No, not at all. What he's doing is taking the money while it's there. When the market's up, everyone, even the smart money wants to be buying into Bitcoin at the tops rather than the bottoms. And it's all here on the chart. It's not just me. It's literally just reading off the facts here. What we teach is the pyramid, call it Illuminati, call it whatever you want, but you want to buy the most at the bottom, the least at the top. the top and then start to sell out. Obviously, Saylor doesn't sell anything out and he just keeps buying the most at the tops and the least at the bottoms. So things could go a little bit pear-shaped should we get another significant correction. Just basically reading through these, you know, he bought two and a half thousand Bitcoin at 30 grand a Bitcoin. Great. And then at the top, he buys four. MicroStrategy has acquired 52,000 Bitcoin, 51,780. So 52,000 Bitcoin for 4.6 billion. That's like you putting in 4 million now and $4,000 two years ago at the bottom. If this turns over by a few percent, you have made losses, even though you've bought some Bitcoin really, really cheap, like two and a half thousand. He bought like, what is that? 20 times more Bitcoin at the top than at the bottom, just in those two little purchases. Yes, you can go and accumulate the rest of this stuff. And maybe it... Well, obviously it doesn't average out because you can see the dotted line here. The average just goes absolutely bananas to the top. But I wouldn't say it's all his fault. People are only interested when the price goes up. And this is just another clear example of the majority just being interested when the price goes up as opposed to while the price is down. So that's the sentiment when we're looking at Saylor. Good things for the price. It's going to keep going up. Okay. That's what I'm saying anyway. So Bitcoin ETF flows, not really much has changed over the last couple of weeks. We still saw the same sort of contrarian signals here. The majority of people bought in and then the price has basically gone nowhere for about 26 days. We shot up to about 90 and then it's just grinding up and we're at 99 now, whereas it shot up from 74 to 90. So big move and then it's been grinding across. The fear and greed is at 78. Yesterday, 79. Last week, 80. So still trading it relatively. high prices here or high market sentiment which is still a good thing this can last sort of one to four-ish months typically that sort of two to four months is where you would see the extreme greed to to hang out that's what we saw in the last piece of the cycle so nothing really too out of the ordinary here for the google search terms google trends and google words bitcoin crypto xrp they're on the climb again just in the last day as they're on a bit of a decline here so now on the incline uh xrp apparently was mentioned on 60 minutes in the us so you've got a bit of search volume there but it's not as high as where it was on the second of december so last monday and for crypto also going up as we're seeing a lot of altcoins just slowly climbing up some hitting new all-time highs we had suey last week we're seeing some memes like pepe get to new all-time highs again whether this is enough of a drive to sustain that breakout and continue on is the big question to be asked And that's part of what I'm discussing, what I'm talking about in the video from what I've seen in today's analysis is that maybe we're getting this bit of a drive up. Unless it holds, then the correction occurs. I think a healthy correction. But nonetheless, the longer term outlook, I would still see higher prices just based on where a lot of these closes and weekly data is coming from. And another healthy sign here is the daily exchange volume. is also at much, much higher levels here, 132 billion, which is very close to the previous old all-time highs back in 2021. However, what we have said here is that this is most likely going to go higher. So we're most likely going to see exchange volume eclipse what it was in 2021, maybe not, didn't make it into 2022. 2022 was much down, much further down here, like 50 billion. So we're at around 132 billion. These tops are around 160 billion, so very close to those previous tops. And I think you're going to see this top get eclipsed, just like you saw the 2017-2018 top at 30 billion get absolutely annihilated into the peak of that next cycle. Speaking of exchanges, stay safe trading on them, however. If you do need to get degenerate and open up multiple exchanges, because sometimes they go down just like Coinbase went down recently and your exchange funds were locked, have a backup plan, have multiple exchanges there. That's the backup plan that I use. That's a backup plan I talk about. But even if you do that, you still need to take your funds off there or at least have something off there in case they go down. None of these things are guaranteed. That's part of the game of crypto, unfortunately. That's why the big returns are there. If everything was guaranteed. then the returns are not there. You'd basically be working off, you know, half a percent a month or something like that, where the long-term average for the stock market is. They are channel sponsors. Check out Bybit, Bloffin and CoinCatch. Bybit, you can basically trade almost anything on there. Plus they also have a crypto debit card and you've got a lot of freebies there. Here, this is the main one that people use. Deposit 3K, trade 10K, get the a hundred bucks for free. Otherwise you can use the smaller bonuses here. And if you're an absolute game trader, you can get up to $30,000. using Bybit and that link down below. And for Bloffin, that has a no KYC plus you get some trading fees back as well. All the links you need are in the video description for those exchanges. Plus for the Aussies, you've got SwiftX up here, 20 bucks free BTC for your onboarding exchange. Back to the agenda. And we've got Bitcoin and altcoin analysis to get through starting with USDT. It's grinding here again, 3.8. These are the two levels that we had identified. back in November, late October into November. Basically, you're 3.8 at the bottom here, and then the 4.2%. And the market is still just grinding here at 4.2, attempting to break down from 3.8. Once it does, that's I think where we get the full send moment to the downside. And that seems like why markets are pretty much quiet at the moment, as it's attempting to either find a base here and potentially go up, which would then lead to the correction for mostly Bitcoin. top 10 and of course some altcoins as well but that breakdown whenever that is ready to go that's i think where we get that full send moment and you see everything just shooting straight up so it's the exact same thing that happened at the previous parabolic break out you can see this massive breakdown here and that then led to the first move for bitcoin and altcoins it was just testing those levels there at 3.4 percent the previous tops coming back to sit on them and then once you got that breakout you had about you know four five weeks really really big moves for bitcoin eth altcoins leading into that final well that first major top big correction and then another attempt at uh like an altcoin or or the rest of the bull market in late 2021. the usdt dominance found a base and then well it was basically the bear market and everyone started to shove money back into usdt because you can see the dominance continue to rise however this time we have broken down from the diagonal downtrend. The beauty here is your swing indicator right here using your GAN swing pro coming back up to retest that diagonal. And so you know what happens when markets retest previous areas of support, they potentially most likely become resistance. Now that's a very big signal here. We could be in the early phases of it. The other massive signal. was a breakdown of the, well, a rejection and then a breakdown of the 50%. Massive rejection at 50% here. So this was a pretty big range, that one there for your first all-time high, 50% through the middle. It rallied again, remember back into August, Bitcoin broke down in March, fell down into August. USDT failed at 50%, 6.6% there. And now we've seen this fall and it's broken down from the entire range. 50% level, 4.75. So you've got several very significant macro weak signals here for the USDT dominance. On top of that, lower highs on the macro chart here, lower high after lower high. Whereas in the past, it's been higher highs after higher highs. Now, the other side to this is maybe there is another stable coin that is gaining traction. I haven't seen it yet. USDC is obviously always there. So maybe USDC is going up. So it's something to pay attention to. But overall, this has been a very reliable indicator. And should we continue to see, well, the analysis play out, I'd expect much further downside here over the coming weeks or most likely months, just according to what we've seen in the past. And that is obviously going to be great things for us and our altcoins and bitcoins and all of our gains there for this final stage of the bull market, the old. final boss, the grand final. So even if we are making profits at this stage, let's try not to get too... airy-fairy about the profits. I had nothing there in the tank. The game isn't over yet. This is like, I don't know, halftime. We already played the first half. We've got the second half to go. It could be somewhere around into that second half. Anyway, this period is the time where you've got to be taking the profits on the way up. Maybe not yet. I can hear you already. It was too early, yada, yada. That's okay. Whatever. But we're already up for two years. And in the case of Bitcoin, from the low to the current price, we're now up 500. 540 percent. Some people are getting really excited about their XRP gains. The same things happen for Bitcoin. 540 percent. Hashtag cope. So today we closed up at the highest daily close in history. We had the highest weekly close in history for Bitcoin. We obviously had the highest price in history at $104,000. And the new week has just begun. It's basically begun in a scary fashion here for many. Down 2 percent or $2,000, now trading around $99,000. So I just spend a little bit of time on that because I'll come back to this probably tomorrow. This thing's probably going to test a few more weak hands to the downside, put in maybe a bit of a scary bar here as I'm filming this. But overall, the macro is still up. And the point of the title of the video is this exact pattern happens every single time when we break out into new all-time highs. And I said it's four times this year already, or this cycle. You have the... weekly chart and the swing indicator thrown on with each of these accumulation periods, you get a pretty significant breakout. There's the first one, accumulation, big breakout back into territory that many thought it wouldn't happen. They thought there was going to go down to 14K. You've heard the people, 14K is the 12Ks, right? That's one. Then this is two, big breakout to the upside, not to be retested again. Then you had three. another breakout to the upside into that final top barely retested in terms of we're talking a few bucks here on bitcoin and now we've just had the fourth one into this breakout top so again just preparing ourselves if there is any sort of correction because we've looked at this already being a time where bitcoin can pause it's the same back here it's the same back here you know the pause back here there's a big long pause here there is your line across the middle there nice high close at higher prices Back here, close at higher prices. Again, close at higher prices. Again here, close at higher prices. And going back to the previous cycle as well. So exact same thing happened last time before we went parabolic. The test of the old all-time highs with the breakout. So many people get hung up about this. Oh, we broke to new all-time highs sooner than we did last cycles. It's not really the point, at least for my own analysis. I know other people take it differently. They can take it any which way they want. But for this, we're just looking at... the signal of strength and weakness and you had the close above the previous old all-time high and then the market continues to show strength and run away even though even though there was a very significant correction very soon after that breakout there is january and you had a 31 drop from 42k down to 29 ish thousand dollars i can keep going back and showing you more of this but i know that the time is getting on here what i do want to show you is an invalidation of this type of setup. Here is the top in April, $65,000. Another test, a close underneath week, trying to test it again. You had one close above the top and then the following week, the very following week, you had a big drop and a close underneath that level. And then there was pretty much no retest of it. Now, sometimes there can be a retest, but again, if it was a lower high, that's telling you it's weak. Here, it was just weak, came straight down. And then there was a lower high, much, much lower at 52K. And then basically the bear market is on from that point. So we can learn a lot from that, whereby if it is to fail at the previous tops, that's a weak signal. But for now, we didn't get that. We had a test, a pullback, election, and then pump right into this top here. So any sort of pullbacks now could be part of a healthy correction after being up for one, two, three, four and a half weeks from that low there in November. And overall from the August low, we're into our 18th week. And this is what we were looking at before. There's roughly 15 to 16 weeks. The market went dead halfway. It pumped into that top there at 28,000. Then basically there was a lot of excitement. But when you look at the price, it basically didn't go anywhere. It was a trading range. It tried it again, trading range. And then you finally get that next move. So we're right within that now. And we've already had. uh one week here that was sideways and then last week we had one of the highest closes in history kind of like you know going back into the uh fractal of 23 2023 into early part of um 2024. michael's been keeping you up to date with the elliott wave cycle on his channel link to his channel is in the video description i won't have time to go through this in this video but i will look at it in the other videos coming up this week what i did want to get onto is the Total cryptocurrency market cap getting very close. The true old queen market cap that is getting very close to a new all-time high here, but we haven't got there quite yet. However, we are approaching it and it's a very similar pattern here. So the main message with all of these charts, the 18-year cycle, it's up. Stock markets hit new all-time highs across the board, across the board. Everything's still continuing to track up. However, same thing we got, new all-time highs here for Bitcoin. However... there does seem to be some sort of timing aspect coming up for a correction in the near future, which then leads to, after that's over, leads to further upside. And I don't think that's going to be different here for Bitcoin and cryptos as well for the first half. However, the correction might be enough to scare a lot of people out. And Michael has talked about this in this particular video here as well. So that leads us over to Ethereum. We're also seeing significant moves here in ETHBTC. So some good strength coming up. Similar to the previous cycles, basically a weekly update there. We had another higher close there. And this has basically been the best structure so far. Well, going back 12 months to the structure we saw in December, November of 2023. It basically attempted to base out and then came crashing down. This is the next best time we've seen any sort of attempt to base out with any sort of volume as well. So this could be part of that next phase as well. ETH USD has also had another close at a new cycle high price at $4,000 and call it $7. And in terms, that's on the weekly and also the daily did the same thing. So we're having a bit of a pullback here, but overall the volumes have been relatively good. And that last week was a great sign because it broke through that 50% level. So $3,700, which then shows us towards our next target, $5,000. $5,300 here, which passes that old all-time high. So it's taken quite some time to form. And then the 50% level did take a fair bit of work to get through, but it happened on increasing volume, which is what you do want to see in terms of the strength to the upside, like a real move is progressing to get to that point. I think we're going to get there through this cycle. So my next target is around 5,300 points. And the same thing for Solana as well. Nice strength to the upside. We have had a rejection here at the previous old all-time high. And the 50%, here is the move here, is at $270. Solana has put in its highest weekly close. However, that close has not come above the previous old all-time high. And so you can see from the other charts that I showed you on the total cryptocurrency market cap breaking to that new high and closing above the previous old all-time high is a pretty good signal that you've got further to go. However, correction, correction. It's a time where people typically like to take some profits because they're feeling, well, they probably made some pretty good gains and it's probably not a bad idea to take something off the table just so that you have some profits from the cycle. And I also showed you with Bitcoin as well, as it breaks through those highs and closed above it, there's a lot more to go. So it seems like Solana's in some sort of period like this now. Let's see from that top, top. before it gets on to that next run. It just takes a few weeks. So once it does get to that point, breaks past 50%, closes above 270, which is also that previous top on Binance. We know 260 is on the other exchanges. So basically above that level, that's going to be pretty good strength to get to that 300 and look to your 320s and, you know, 400 bucks at a later stage. So this is definitely the grand final, but it's not the final minutes of the second half. We still have a lot further to go, in my opinion, based on this analysis, which I hope you've enjoyed today. If you have, smash the like button and also subscribe to the channel. I'll leave a link to the previous video right over here. So go and check that out after this video and I'll see you back for the next one. Have a great day. Take care and peace out.

And of course, for Bitcoin, we have seen many, many gains from this point, from the low... over 500% from $15,000. And I don't think it's going to end anytime soon.

However, we have discussed the possibility of corrections. So I think it's important now preparing for the corrections, mostly the mental game leading into the corrections, because this will shake the majority of people out. However, there are still signs that we have a lot further to go to the upside. So make sure you hit that like button, subscribe to the channel.

if you're new here so that you can get this content in your news feed on a daily basis. We are here presenting you with the home of macro cycle analysis. I'm covering Bitcoin, cryptos, the stock markets, and the real estate cycle.

We analyze all the financial markets for you here on the channel. So without further ado, here is the agenda for today. Bitcoin highest in history.

We've got some massive closes happening at the moment, huge pumps on the stock markets, the US and... the global markets as well an update for gold the us real estate and economic cycle so on and so forth cryptos the market sentiment bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin true altcoin market cap and of course eth and solana so i want to start it out with the s&p 500 as we are now 18 points away from the first target level here at 100 so basically 0.3 percent you We hit another new all-time high closing week and day, closing price and highs as well on Friday. And here is the 100%. It's 6,118. This is the projection that we've had on the charts now for a couple of years going back to the October low.

Essentially, that's where you can get the reading from. And we're just a few points shy of that. So does that mean we're going to collapse from this point? I don't think so.

The other thing I had here was the low is in here in August. So two major things that I'm looking at. uh how much further can this go once it hits 100 and if and obviously when it's not a matter of if it's a matter of when the stock markets do eventually have a correction uh how far down do they have to go in order to invalidate the macro bull market the first point of call for me is the low in august so that one there you can see at least for the s&p 500 at around 5100 points And then anything below the old all-time high at 4,800. So a fair bit of distance to fall before any sort of signs of the cycle being over.

In terms of a percentage, that would be roughly 16% to get to that low. But for the upside from here, we could again start to look at 150%. This move took just over two years.

And the reference range is the COVID low to the previous old all-time high. which was actually shorter. So that's all I'm doing there is basically getting that and moving it here.

So you can get a projection for where the markets could potentially go. So we've almost reached that after everyone was calling for a recession in 22, in 23. And of course the markets kept going up. So it doesn't matter what people say.

It matters what the charts show us higher and higher prices. So there is 6,100, just a few points off that. Now that was the first target.

Second target, 7,400 sounds. insane today, but 6,000 points sounded insane when the S&P was under 4,000 points. That was a 50% rise from there and we got it.

So it's happened already. For the NASDAQ, hit new all-time highs. Let's look at the futures market.

We've got that again. So new all-time high on Wednesday, new all-time high on Thursday, Friday, and here we are on Monday opening up. So Sunday night for you guys in the US, again, another new all-time high, 21,600. points. So again, the low is for me, the low is in there.

If that low is broken, then it invalidates this, uh, there's a big bull market, at least for that time being, because that's one of the most critical areas right now at 17,300 points. So mark those up on your charts so that there, if there is, or I should say when there is some sort of correction. So, you know, where to start freaking out that the game is over and we all needed to get into gold and cash.

Okay. Of course, I'm joking a little bit there. the game isn't entirely over but this would be a very very very weak signal if the market would break down from that point but of course you still have the previous old all-time highs for the nasdaq is back at 16 and a half thousand so not too far from that particular low For the Dow Jones, it also hit all-time highs the week before last, so end of November. And then last week, the 4th of December, we also got another very, very high price. I think it was just a couple of points higher before we've now had a couple of days down.

So interesting to see what materializes from here. Could it be a three-day down signal that we used for Bitcoin that showed us how BTC was going to be underneath that old all-time high this year for quite some time. And for the volatility index, the VIX for the S&P 500, again, this is also trending down. So a good sign here for the VIX to end up in our bull market zone. Basically, the cycles are still up and the markets are still doing what they need to do.

In terms of the global markets, and the German market hit a new all-time high on Monday, then Tuesday, then Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. So we are well and truly into this winner's curse phase of the market. markets are going up, hitting new all-time high prices. Obviously, real estate on a national level is doing that in the US, Australia, UK.

The data continues to show that. And it doesn't necessarily mean that every single area in the country is going to go up. That's often a comment that I hear about the cycle.

We're not talking about smaller areas. It's a national average there in terms of how the prices are fluctuating. So we're just looking at national averages there.

So Germany is up. basically leading the charge here for Europe. France is the laggard and for the UK also trading around its highs, but not putting in the same sort of gains that Germany has been doing. Back to the US, oh sorry, back to America, sorry Canadians, we're at new all-time highs again. So Friday closed out at a daily all-time high price, a daily all-time high price as well, just with intraday.

And then in terms of the weekly, also got to a new all-time high. You can see these moves are getting a little bit extended. They're also starting to close in on the ranges.

So you're probably starting to see a lot of these wedges forming as the price climbs higher. And eventually you do see a bit of a correction, how big that is. That's why I'm giving you those price targets to the downside so that even if there is a correction or when there is a correction, you should know where the invalidation occurs and when it is basically just a healthy correction in the overall macro uptrend.

Gold. is also holding up relatively well. We're still seeing some strength in the US dollar at 106. It has had a couple of lower closes here and then close on November was quite low.

So unless it's able to close this month above the previous tops around 107 to 108, this could be a bit of a weak pattern forming for the US dollar. But for now, trends are up. We've got higher highs and higher lows across the board.

The only thing that's been very weak is the Aussie dollar. but I don't think that matters to basically anyone else watching this unless you are Australian trading internationally. So here is the 18.6 year cycle, winner's curse phase.

We're in that two years up. We are here. This is the last half of the game and it is basically the last quarter of the last half as well when everything continues to shoot up. We've obviously been talking about this.

We've talked about it on the channel for years. Here we are and it has continued to... play out time and time again. This is where we're starting to get to, this 25-26. Let's look at late 25, not earlier in the year.

However, I think there are going to be some scares in 2025, just off the back of how straight up a lot of these markets have been going. Like we saw in August, July-August, that was a pretty severe drop, 10-ish percent, and that freaked a lot of people out. That's all it took to bring up the talks of recession again.

So if we were to see something like that, you can imagine what... the masses what the media what probably your favorite media i don't know economist analyst is going to be talking about they typically bring up recession again because when the market goes down people just want to hear about how the market is going down and it could go down more you have a ton of doomsday bears who are still hoping for this sort of thing but they're being silenced by the prices continuing to rise higher and higher so overall more movement to the upside is what we're seeing in the charts but when the volatility comes in, the emotions are going to get even more wild because a lot of people are missed out. They're putting their money in late and they're asking the question, should I be putting it in now?

Should I be taking it out? They see a down move, they'll take it out. They see it go up again, they put it back in.

You've probably heard it, especially with Bitcoin, cryptos, XRP, that sort of thing. People are just continuing to worry about their money going up and down. Let it ride out. The trend's up, let it ride out.

So that leads us to crypto, bitcoins, and some of the patterns that I've been talking about here. Let's take a look at some of, I guess, the news. National Center for Public Policy Research proposes Bitcoin treasury to Amazon.

I guess they're trying to follow in the steps of MicroStrategy. And for MicroStrategy, they, well, at least Michael Saylor is saying he doesn't have enough Bitcoin, still too much blue. on sailortracker.com that's basically bitcoin price in blue and then the greens are all the purchases that sailor has made i guess for micro strategy and then the green that is your average price look at his average price continuing to go up i suppose that's normal you'd see a lot of average prices continue to go up as well however this is a big one if you take the time to go through each of these little bubbles here the green bubbles this is what we specifically teach not to do, and I guess you could say, maybe I'm saying, well, is Michael Saylor dumb? No, not at all. What he's doing is taking the money while it's there.

When the market's up, everyone, even the smart money wants to be buying into Bitcoin at the tops rather than the bottoms. And it's all here on the chart. It's not just me.

It's literally just reading off the facts here. What we teach is the pyramid, call it Illuminati, call it whatever you want, but you want to buy the most at the bottom, the least at the top. the top and then start to sell out. Obviously, Saylor doesn't sell anything out and he just keeps buying the most at the tops and the least at the bottoms. So things could go a little bit pear-shaped should we get another significant correction.

Just basically reading through these, you know, he bought two and a half thousand Bitcoin at 30 grand a Bitcoin. Great. And then at the top, he buys four.

MicroStrategy has acquired 52,000 Bitcoin, 51,780. So 52,000 Bitcoin for 4.6 billion. That's like you putting in 4 million now and $4,000 two years ago at the bottom. If this turns over by a few percent, you have made losses, even though you've bought some Bitcoin really, really cheap, like two and a half thousand. He bought like, what is that?

20 times more Bitcoin at the top than at the bottom, just in those two little purchases. Yes, you can go and accumulate the rest of this stuff. And maybe it... Well, obviously it doesn't average out because you can see the dotted line here.

The average just goes absolutely bananas to the top. But I wouldn't say it's all his fault. People are only interested when the price goes up. And this is just another clear example of the majority just being interested when the price goes up as opposed to while the price is down.

So that's the sentiment when we're looking at Saylor. Good things for the price. It's going to keep going up.

Okay. That's what I'm saying anyway. So Bitcoin ETF flows, not really much has changed over the last couple of weeks. We still saw the same sort of contrarian signals here. The majority of people bought in and then the price has basically gone nowhere for about 26 days.

We shot up to about 90 and then it's just grinding up and we're at 99 now, whereas it shot up from 74 to 90. So big move and then it's been grinding across. The fear and greed is at 78. Yesterday, 79. Last week, 80. So still trading it relatively. high prices here or high market sentiment which is still a good thing this can last sort of one to four-ish months typically that sort of two to four months is where you would see the extreme greed to to hang out that's what we saw in the last piece of the cycle so nothing really too out of the ordinary here for the google search terms google trends and google words bitcoin crypto xrp they're on the climb again just in the last day as they're on a bit of a decline here so now on the incline uh xrp apparently was mentioned on 60 minutes in the us so you've got a bit of search volume there but it's not as high as where it was on the second of december so last monday and for crypto also going up as we're seeing a lot of altcoins just slowly climbing up some hitting new all-time highs we had suey last week we're seeing some memes like pepe get to new all-time highs again whether this is enough of a drive to sustain that breakout and continue on is the big question to be asked And that's part of what I'm discussing, what I'm talking about in the video from what I've seen in today's analysis is that maybe we're getting this bit of a drive up.

Unless it holds, then the correction occurs. I think a healthy correction. But nonetheless, the longer term outlook, I would still see higher prices just based on where a lot of these closes and weekly data is coming from. And another healthy sign here is the daily exchange volume. is also at much, much higher levels here, 132 billion, which is very close to the previous old all-time highs back in 2021. However, what we have said here is that this is most likely going to go higher.

So we're most likely going to see exchange volume eclipse what it was in 2021, maybe not, didn't make it into 2022. 2022 was much down, much further down here, like 50 billion. So we're at around 132 billion. These tops are around 160 billion, so very close to those previous tops. And I think you're going to see this top get eclipsed, just like you saw the 2017-2018 top at 30 billion get absolutely annihilated into the peak of that next cycle.

Speaking of exchanges, stay safe trading on them, however. If you do need to get degenerate and open up multiple exchanges, because sometimes they go down just like Coinbase went down recently and your exchange funds were locked, have a backup plan, have multiple exchanges there. That's the backup plan that I use.

That's a backup plan I talk about. But even if you do that, you still need to take your funds off there or at least have something off there in case they go down. None of these things are guaranteed. That's part of the game of crypto, unfortunately.

That's why the big returns are there. If everything was guaranteed. then the returns are not there.

You'd basically be working off, you know, half a percent a month or something like that, where the long-term average for the stock market is. They are channel sponsors. Check out Bybit, Bloffin and CoinCatch. Bybit, you can basically trade almost anything on there. Plus they also have a crypto debit card and you've got a lot of freebies there.

Here, this is the main one that people use. Deposit 3K, trade 10K, get the a hundred bucks for free. Otherwise you can use the smaller bonuses here.

And if you're an absolute game trader, you can get up to $30,000. using Bybit and that link down below. And for Bloffin, that has a no KYC plus you get some trading fees back as well. All the links you need are in the video description for those exchanges.

Plus for the Aussies, you've got SwiftX up here, 20 bucks free BTC for your onboarding exchange. Back to the agenda. And we've got Bitcoin and altcoin analysis to get through starting with USDT. It's grinding here again, 3.8. These are the two levels that we had identified.

back in November, late October into November. Basically, you're 3.8 at the bottom here, and then the 4.2%. And the market is still just grinding here at 4.2, attempting to break down from 3.8.

Once it does, that's I think where we get the full send moment to the downside. And that seems like why markets are pretty much quiet at the moment, as it's attempting to either find a base here and potentially go up, which would then lead to the correction for mostly Bitcoin. top 10 and of course some altcoins as well but that breakdown whenever that is ready to go that's i think where we get that full send moment and you see everything just shooting straight up so it's the exact same thing that happened at the previous parabolic break out you can see this massive breakdown here and that then led to the first move for bitcoin and altcoins it was just testing those levels there at 3.4 percent the previous tops coming back to sit on them and then once you got that breakout you had about you know four five weeks really really big moves for bitcoin eth altcoins leading into that final well that first major top big correction and then another attempt at uh like an altcoin or or the rest of the bull market in late 2021. the usdt dominance found a base and then well it was basically the bear market and everyone started to shove money back into usdt because you can see the dominance continue to rise however this time we have broken down from the diagonal downtrend.

The beauty here is your swing indicator right here using your GAN swing pro coming back up to retest that diagonal. And so you know what happens when markets retest previous areas of support, they potentially most likely become resistance. Now that's a very big signal here. We could be in the early phases of it.

The other massive signal. was a breakdown of the, well, a rejection and then a breakdown of the 50%. Massive rejection at 50% here.

So this was a pretty big range, that one there for your first all-time high, 50% through the middle. It rallied again, remember back into August, Bitcoin broke down in March, fell down into August. USDT failed at 50%, 6.6% there. And now we've seen this fall and it's broken down from the entire range. 50% level, 4.75.

So you've got several very significant macro weak signals here for the USDT dominance. On top of that, lower highs on the macro chart here, lower high after lower high. Whereas in the past, it's been higher highs after higher highs. Now, the other side to this is maybe there is another stable coin that is gaining traction. I haven't seen it yet.

USDC is obviously always there. So maybe USDC is going up. So it's something to pay attention to.

But overall, this has been a very reliable indicator. And should we continue to see, well, the analysis play out, I'd expect much further downside here over the coming weeks or most likely months, just according to what we've seen in the past. And that is obviously going to be great things for us and our altcoins and bitcoins and all of our gains there for this final stage of the bull market, the old.

final boss, the grand final. So even if we are making profits at this stage, let's try not to get too... airy-fairy about the profits. I had nothing there in the tank.

The game isn't over yet. This is like, I don't know, halftime. We already played the first half.

We've got the second half to go. It could be somewhere around into that second half. Anyway, this period is the time where you've got to be taking the profits on the way up.

Maybe not yet. I can hear you already. It was too early, yada, yada. That's okay.

Whatever. But we're already up for two years. And in the case of Bitcoin, from the low to the current price, we're now up 500. 540 percent. Some people are getting really excited about their XRP gains. The same things happen for Bitcoin.

540 percent. Hashtag cope. So today we closed up at the highest daily close in history. We had the highest weekly close in history for Bitcoin. We obviously had the highest price in history at $104,000.

And the new week has just begun. It's basically begun in a scary fashion here for many. Down 2 percent or $2,000, now trading around $99,000.

So I just spend a little bit of time on that because I'll come back to this probably tomorrow. This thing's probably going to test a few more weak hands to the downside, put in maybe a bit of a scary bar here as I'm filming this. But overall, the macro is still up. And the point of the title of the video is this exact pattern happens every single time when we break out into new all-time highs.

And I said it's four times this year already, or this cycle. You have the... weekly chart and the swing indicator thrown on with each of these accumulation periods, you get a pretty significant breakout. There's the first one, accumulation, big breakout back into territory that many thought it wouldn't happen. They thought there was going to go down to 14K.

You've heard the people, 14K is the 12Ks, right? That's one. Then this is two, big breakout to the upside, not to be retested again. Then you had three. another breakout to the upside into that final top barely retested in terms of we're talking a few bucks here on bitcoin and now we've just had the fourth one into this breakout top so again just preparing ourselves if there is any sort of correction because we've looked at this already being a time where bitcoin can pause it's the same back here it's the same back here you know the pause back here there's a big long pause here there is your line across the middle there nice high close at higher prices Back here, close at higher prices.

Again, close at higher prices. Again here, close at higher prices. And going back to the previous cycle as well.

So exact same thing happened last time before we went parabolic. The test of the old all-time highs with the breakout. So many people get hung up about this. Oh, we broke to new all-time highs sooner than we did last cycles. It's not really the point, at least for my own analysis.

I know other people take it differently. They can take it any which way they want. But for this, we're just looking at...

the signal of strength and weakness and you had the close above the previous old all-time high and then the market continues to show strength and run away even though even though there was a very significant correction very soon after that breakout there is january and you had a 31 drop from 42k down to 29 ish thousand dollars i can keep going back and showing you more of this but i know that the time is getting on here what i do want to show you is an invalidation of this type of setup. Here is the top in April, $65,000. Another test, a close underneath week, trying to test it again.

You had one close above the top and then the following week, the very following week, you had a big drop and a close underneath that level. And then there was pretty much no retest of it. Now, sometimes there can be a retest, but again, if it was a lower high, that's telling you it's weak. Here, it was just weak, came straight down.

And then there was a lower high, much, much lower at 52K. And then basically the bear market is on from that point. So we can learn a lot from that, whereby if it is to fail at the previous tops, that's a weak signal.

But for now, we didn't get that. We had a test, a pullback, election, and then pump right into this top here. So any sort of pullbacks now could be part of a healthy correction after being up for one, two, three, four and a half weeks from that low there in November.

And overall from the August low, we're into our 18th week. And this is what we were looking at before. There's roughly 15 to 16 weeks. The market went dead halfway. It pumped into that top there at 28,000.

Then basically there was a lot of excitement. But when you look at the price, it basically didn't go anywhere. It was a trading range.

It tried it again, trading range. And then you finally get that next move. So we're right within that now. And we've already had.

uh one week here that was sideways and then last week we had one of the highest closes in history kind of like you know going back into the uh fractal of 23 2023 into early part of um 2024. michael's been keeping you up to date with the elliott wave cycle on his channel link to his channel is in the video description i won't have time to go through this in this video but i will look at it in the other videos coming up this week what i did want to get onto is the Total cryptocurrency market cap getting very close. The true old queen market cap that is getting very close to a new all-time high here, but we haven't got there quite yet. However, we are approaching it and it's a very similar pattern here. So the main message with all of these charts, the 18-year cycle, it's up. Stock markets hit new all-time highs across the board, across the board.

Everything's still continuing to track up. However, same thing we got, new all-time highs here for Bitcoin. However...

there does seem to be some sort of timing aspect coming up for a correction in the near future, which then leads to, after that's over, leads to further upside. And I don't think that's going to be different here for Bitcoin and cryptos as well for the first half. However, the correction might be enough to scare a lot of people out.

And Michael has talked about this in this particular video here as well. So that leads us over to Ethereum. We're also seeing significant moves here in ETHBTC. So some good strength coming up.

Similar to the previous cycles, basically a weekly update there. We had another higher close there. And this has basically been the best structure so far. Well, going back 12 months to the structure we saw in December, November of 2023. It basically attempted to base out and then came crashing down. This is the next best time we've seen any sort of attempt to base out with any sort of volume as well.

So this could be part of that next phase as well. ETH USD has also had another close at a new cycle high price at $4,000 and call it $7. And in terms, that's on the weekly and also the daily did the same thing. So we're having a bit of a pullback here, but overall the volumes have been relatively good.

And that last week was a great sign because it broke through that 50% level. So $3,700, which then shows us towards our next target, $5,000. $5,300 here, which passes that old all-time high. So it's taken quite some time to form. And then the 50% level did take a fair bit of work to get through, but it happened on increasing volume, which is what you do want to see in terms of the strength to the upside, like a real move is progressing to get to that point.

I think we're going to get there through this cycle. So my next target is around 5,300 points. And the same thing for Solana as well. Nice strength to the upside. We have had a rejection here at the previous old all-time high.

And the 50%, here is the move here, is at $270. Solana has put in its highest weekly close. However, that close has not come above the previous old all-time high.

And so you can see from the other charts that I showed you on the total cryptocurrency market cap breaking to that new high and closing above the previous old all-time high is a pretty good signal that you've got further to go. However, correction, correction. It's a time where people typically like to take some profits because they're feeling, well, they probably made some pretty good gains and it's probably not a bad idea to take something off the table just so that you have some profits from the cycle.

And I also showed you with Bitcoin as well, as it breaks through those highs and closed above it, there's a lot more to go. So it seems like Solana's in some sort of period like this now. Let's see from that top, top.

before it gets on to that next run. It just takes a few weeks. So once it does get to that point, breaks past 50%, closes above 270, which is also that previous top on Binance.

We know 260 is on the other exchanges. So basically above that level, that's going to be pretty good strength to get to that 300 and look to your 320s and, you know, 400 bucks at a later stage. So this is definitely the grand final, but it's not the final minutes of the second half.

We still have a lot further to go, in my opinion, based on this analysis, which I hope you've enjoyed today. If you have, smash the like button and also subscribe to the channel. I'll leave a link to the previous video right over here.

So go and check that out after this video and I'll see you back for the next one. Have a great day. Take care and peace out.

Transcript for:Market Trends and Insights Overview

Transcript for:
Market Trends and Insights Overview