[Music] it's a brilliant brilliant event and you'll come away with lots of new ideas and a better understanding of this incredible exponential [Music] world you get to speak to the smartest people people like you trying to figure this out but also the people on stage they're the experts so we get all of that all in one place in Singapore what more can you [Music] ask see you at token 2049 everyone look sorry this is the cheesy Interruption that you get on YouTube channels but they're really important I'd really appreciate it if you just hit the Subscribe button you see it makes a difference to know how I'm doing seeing the growth in subscribers if we're getting the right content obviously comments help as well but the hitting the Subscribe button allows me also to book the best guests it really does make a difference so if you do enjoy this content and I know you do because you keep coming back to watch it just please hit the Subscribe button sorry again for the cheese but it is important I appreciate it so much take care hi I'm Ralph pal and welcome to my show the journey man where I Journey to the Nexus of macro crypto and the exponential agent Tech technology I all of us in fact spend a lot of time on Twitter and other platforms looking for signal but as we know there's a huge amount of noise out there it's really difficult to understand everybody's hopes and dreams fears and excitement are all played out in real time and it's kind of emotionally overwhelming or just overwhelming overall to try and understand what is the bloody signal you see we built real Vision around building the signal for people curating the very best people and what I do here on the journey man is just a small fraction of what we do at real vision and I really urge you if you're serious about your investing journey and you want to get more signal and less noise then come and join us for free at realvision realvision you'll see how we can unveil the world of finance and crypto in a way that you can understand it and take advantage of it after all this is once in a lifetime as an opportunity you owe it to yourself anyway when it comes to Signal there are few people that I really take seriously thoughtful intelligent people who spend time thinking about what they're going to talk about or how they invest one of my absolute fa favorites is Chris bisy Chris really is the signal in the noise he's one of the most thoughtful people I've ever come across in the space and he's not driven by that kind of emotional turmoil that is ex he's like the straight PA and I think you would massively benefit from hearing me sit down with Chris where we can talk through what are the opportunities in crypto where are we and I can also pick his brains and he can pick mine because an open dialogue is much easier in this format than it is in something like Twitter or X and that's what I get out of this I get to talk to people I really respect and I really respect Chris so enjoy the conversation join me Ral pal as I go on a journey of Discovery through the macro crypto and exponential age landscapes in the journey man I talked to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together Chris great to see you again same R when when was it last was it a couple years ago something like that it was like when we were both bullish very early bull market and uh I think we got together then so then it's been a cycle and maybe uh maybe we're just in the same place in this cycle as we were when we chatted last cycle well yeah we chatted we were this cycle when we chatted it was like it was still the bottom I think it was you know when you'd started building a salana thesis and I had I think I can't quite remember right well we've had personal chats too or deaders back and forth as well um yeah I can't place it either but here we are um I've got questions for you I'm sure you've got questions for me first let's just put the Chris the land down where you think we are kind of where your focus is on then we just broaden it out from there sure well you know I suppose most people always want to know where are we in the cycle and to use a baseball analogy I would think of it for crypto you know late third early fourth inning of you know nine innings type of thing um and then you know in terms of what I'm focusing on and placeholders focusing on I'd say we're focusing on growing value within the existing portfolio um we did a ton of work investment work in the second half of 2022 and all through 2023 um you know a big Focus for for us was Solana and that was both um Soul itself but also underwriting every quality Venture team that that we could um in that period And so you know that was things like tensor and drip and jeto and squads and commo and eclipse and so on and so forth um Are all uh position rounds we we we LED or participated in and so then it's a lot of work to to support those teams and you know in the private Market um given the Run we had from late 2023 into uh q1 of 2024 you know the private Market always lies the public market right but it it carries its own inertia and so Public Market ripped Soul repriced majorly um and then a bunch of VCS wanted Soul exposure you know and wanted um salana uh you know application or protocol teams in their portfolios and so that has you know significantly expanded those valuations and decreased um you know some of our appetite for investing there that's not to say that um you know the salana ecosystem or the ethereum ecosystem or the Bitcoin ecosystem or any of these ecosystems don't have opportunity it's more just how Place placeholder operates more as a you know I think the longer we do this the more I realize that uh one of our sweet spots is having money when everyone else runs out of money um and then you know supporting people if who need the help then because there were things like when we underwrote tensor um you know I started speaking with the tensor guys late in 2022 so you know you've gone through the Luna meltdown the FTX meltdown um no one wants to touch salana here you know uh a founding team of two has built probably the most feature complete amazing nft exchange I've seen um and there's no VCS around it and so that was late 22 into January 2023 people could not raise money at all and so everything got marked down everything got super cheap and really interesting I don't know why people don't learn this I mean even even now you just see even VC funds can't raise money yet and they'll re really raise money when they get let's say bitcoin's over 100,000 and before you know everyone's investing Lake Cycle all over again they just rinse and repeat yeah and already I mean we're seeing call it these um seed rounds where people raise 15 to $40 million I mean that the amount raised for a seed round is more than the valuation of what a seed round should be um in the world we exist in um and so you know that all kind of distorts say like the momentum of the public market distorts what is a reasonable valuation of the private market and it all feed into itself until it collapses um and so I would say we're already in the early Innings of seeing that feed into itself and I don't want people to misinterpret this as oh this is the top because I started by saying you know uh late third early fourth inning um it's more just being aware of the way in which certain of these Dynamics very predictably feed into themselves how do you think about the dichotomy between tokens and Equity when it comes to VC because often you know tokens give obviously earlier liquidity not that everybody sells them or anything and that's a kind of false narrative but it a lot of the equity takes a lot longer to play than the token side does what Acres the real value here is one I don't know I'm still trying to think this thing through because it still confuses me somewhat yeah well I would say if if you look at blockchain venture or crypto Venture there's really token investing and there's Equity investing and what trips people up is um Equity structures are still used as the Kickstart for for token investing and so you know what I mean by that is like if you go back in time um placeholder used to use what we would call the placeholder development company but it was a development company that would hold a percentage of the future network um and so we often like to have development company that held a quarter to a third of the future network at a quarter it means that Outsiders have 3x what insiders do at a third it means Outsiders or the permissionless public has 2x what insiders do but let's say you're going to price a network at $100 million and the development compan is can hold a quarter of that Network a quarter of of a100 million you know would suggest that that company could be worth a minimum of $25 million right um and so that was an early model we used um then you know warrants really became the norm and so the way that uh Warren price things is there's a ratio between the uh price of the equity and the price of the network and you know uh in the in the 25% model it would be a 4 to one which you don't really see anymore you don't even really see a three to one anymore which is you know the development company holding a 30 Network really like what you see now is a two to one so development company holds about half of the network um and frighteningly like I'm seeing more to more and more and it's been this case for a while one to ones and a one: one implies that the the company holds theoretically could hold 100% of the network now where it all gets a little tricky is like what percent of the equity um is sold to investors so even if you know the company holds theoretically 100% of the network in a one to one model uh if only 20% of the equity is ultimately sold to investors um it leaves 80% of the network to play with in terms of How It's allocated amongst like you know Founders Foundation permissionless Public and so so all of this is extremely malleable um and so that is more the token side of things and then the pure Equity side of things is more like if you're investing in exchanges or picks and shovels or things that are very well understood in terms of you know how revenue and earnings are going to drive Equity value yeah it's just the other thing that's interesting is obviously because tokens give you exits essentially earlier I wonder how much of the equity of all of this actually gets realized and do founders care in the end about the equity that's another thing I'm trying to get my head around whether we've created a sort of perverse incentive without realizing it yeah if they're a protocol founder they probably don't care that much about the equity is the truth um and you know and I do want to say one thing on the the early exits you know you and I go through this all the time and seeing the ways in which things are misinterpret on X right and there's the Trope of evil VCS dumping immediately upon listing VCS at least if you're a reputable VC in the US you locked up for a year to begin with at a minimum so like any dumping that that that people see like we actually joke sometimes internally that you know in in some parts of the the the stage of cycle uh it's retail dumping on VCS now that's not a a sympathetic you know uh no one's going to sympathize with the VC for that but it happens and so uh you know VCS go through lock up periods there's typically a one-year Cliff before you know there's any type of release schedule so that's something people should keep in mind um now you know in terms of the longer term value which really I think is where your question is driving at um that is a very uh that's a deep rabbit hole right I think that when you look at crypto as an asset class there are probably fewer than 50 longterm investable assets and I mean like investable like buy this thing and hold it for for 10 years um because investable at least for me with how you know I was trained is it has fundamentals that are going to drive the flows consistently within the market structure such that it appre over time if you know all all us things being equal and so many tokens are suffering under the weight of a perverse Market structure with minimal profitability and there's a bunch of reasons for why we've ended up here it's like it's not um it's not something that I think any single individual or group of entities wanted and and a lot of it has to do with the regulatory environment as well and being trapped within that and so we're going to have to work our our our ways out of that and you know you and I can piece that apart a bit more if you want yeah there's another part of this whole equation I'm trying to get my head around in fact there's two other parts I want to talk to you about just because they're not here in my head and I'm still trying to figure it out after all these years I know the ecosystem particularly retail loves airdrops but they seem and in token incentive systems but they seem to create really bad outcomes because they are more incentivized to dump it as fast as possible to capture it we found this even in nft communities you're finding wage gaps so you're finding let's say somebody in the Philippines will dump anything down to a $10 profit because their monthly wages are less while somebody in the US may not and you're just seeing that that time after time we do the airdrops we kind of try and bootstrap the network and people just take it and [ __ ] off and I'm like yeah are we destroying the whole thing by doing this by creating this complete Insanity around airdrops well we're not destroying it because some of the core blockchains are indestructible so I'm reassured by that right I've yeah I'm not thinking of the the core blockchains I'm more thinking of the applications that come with kind of aird dropped incentives right okay I think well we're in teenage angst and and and I think we are destroying some of those tokens and some of those applications because if if you launch it to high valuation well okay let's go through the the the whole process here right airdrops right now the norm is 10 to 20% of the fully diluted Supply gets air dropped and that came from a good place right that came from um the early thinking of that was let's reward you know the early stakeholders who come together to actually make this network have utility right so it's giv ownership um to people who don't have the Capital Access to buying at an early stage and earn it through their labor um or some combination labor at Capital good intention right um but now it's become so predictable that there's all kinds of farms right and like having seen how well-intentioned entrepreneurs have tried to go through this and and the amount of work it takes to try and you know filter out all the sibl um or you know just let's call them disingenuous actors I don't want to call them Bad actors but disingenuous to the intention it's so much work and then everyone is unhappy because everyone basically got over promised to about what they were going to get and they like also the the fact that it's become like airdrop farming or like the industrialized airdrop farming complex dilutes the amount that goes to people the industrialized airdrop farming complex I love that right that's what it's become and so it's lost the the Genesis of you know what it made it um powerful for people because if you do look at some of the earlier airdrops from last cycle and this cycle they've been powerful like Unis swap was powerful last cycle goo was powerful this cycle that came early um that came last year right late 2023 surprised people um generous because it was not widely farmed so the more widely farmed it is the less generous it is be for every individual for the most part and so there's that frustrating um you know inverse correlation and you know even I would say the Celestia airdrop from you know um early this cycle was also quite effective but like when when Celestia airdrop po ined people were asking uh what's Celestia as opposed to like you come to the here and now and the most recent big airdrops everyone wants the token everyone is talking about but then everyone's just gruntled because they're all crowded in so I would say at this point like the utility of airdrops is um to allow for comp a compliant launch of a token in you know this red tape us regulatory environment right and that's suboptimal as well right like I would prefer at least from a market structure standpoint um the Ico model of 2017 where you had 50 to 80% of the supply circulating upon day one right because that that allows for a much more balanced Market structure as opposed to a topheavy you know long duration Market structure um and then from there you know if you had 50 60 70 80% of the supply circulating from day one I think we would end up in an environment where ftvs would shrink and like that's okay right like I see people on Twitter be like you can't do that because ftvs will shrink and I'm like but isn't everyone complaining that ftvs are too hot right so like if you have more Supply circulating and you have a more liberated Market from day one ftvs will shrink it'll be much closer to circulating and then what you might end up with um is protocols especially on the application protocol side that are going to go through some form of profitability and might end up being you know classified in a digital asset security framework you know they will go through they either fund themselves through protocol profitability debt or Capital assuance right and so it starts to look not too dissimilar from a company there are some some components that are different given you know the global nature that transcends any any jurisdiction but I think that's a much healthier environment so then maybe you know they go to expand the supply you know every three years to fund operations as needed and maybe the holder base tolerates that dilution as you see with you know within the equity World stock based comp or whatever it might be like I remember covering Splunk when I was at ARC I think it was inflating its Supply at something like 15% annually right just to like fund its its growth um it's it's its stock supply and so we'll get into some of those more mature structures I hope towards the end of this decade as we get you know more coherent regulatory Frameworks in the US and other major jurisdictions other thing I'm trying to think through is the market now wants less fdv and they want let's say we go to the Ico model where 70% of the tokens are released early the other issue I have is having seen things like EOS is the moment people crystallize that much money they don't give a [ __ ] about the protocol or the thing because the alignments get Mis incentivized and I'm not sure and I'm still thinking this through whether a high fdv low float actually forces those teams to really Drive value and economic models because they don't realize all of the money up front because the more you realize money up front you forego you get Capital now for future work so you're less likely to do the future work because the incentive structure right totally so I I could not agree more with you that you know we need long duration incentives my My Hope Is that if people get sick of the different games in different ways and the financial nihilists wash out then everything will compress more right so less money is raised and and in truth for for a lot of things unless you're building you know a layer one like part of the point of this whole movement is that the layer one is outsourced automation infrastructure and for what it's worth if you're building an application the consumer is directly paying for the cost often to run the underlying infrastructure so it collapses Ops you know for for the application so like if I built Unis swap I push it to ethereum and then it runs its own operations and so me in building Unis swap I probably need to raise less money than I do to build the New York Stock Exchange right so like my My Hope here is that like things would compress get more Capital efficient you know the fdbs um are lower closer to circulating and there's like less upfront money to the teams which keeps them building things things of quality over time right um and so we would work our way out of these you know crazy Deca billion dollar valuations from from day one now I think there are also reasons why you could say hey Chris you're dreaming and that's not going to happen anytime soon that's what I was about to say yeah yeah I mean my view on this is the issue is here is even Bitcoin alone performs at 150% a year since 2011 and the earlier stage high adoption tokens Salan or ethereum are much higher so the amount of new capital and wealth it creates just means this endless Capital gets recycled into the system and until you see network growth slow down and we're we're barely there yet you know we're only still going up the exponential curve it's difficult to think we can get Capital efficiency the only way I guess is at the tail because there's so many tokens launching yeah well I guess I would say everything that I just spoke about for however many minutes about this more mature State you know it could be end of this decade it could be next decade you know it's more like maybe a a a a final state of maturation what we are seeing right now is way more dispersion in how assets perform than any other cycle right so um and and I think this is what's making at least people on crypto Twitter so angsty because BTC so you know that's the trifecta of like you know pretty balanced Market structure and operating off of like um I hate to call it pure but like reasonable um Market structure and flow Dynamics right that are sustainable um and then the longer tail is going through a ton of volatility um because it's much more perverted Market structure and so what could happen here is like BTC e Soul are are building you know sustained lasting value now that tricks um retail often into being like well you know this longtail L1 if it gets to eth or it gets to Soul then it's 150x and so that's a better investment than you know eth and soul and that happens all the time now I think those phenomenons are much more tradable than they are investable right and this this I think will surprise people this cycle because right now people are so down on the lawn tail and the fdv and that's that's good right there's more awareness about it and and that will cause change but the circulating cap and the liquidity of a high fdv low circulating pretty big project the liquidity that is less and so it takes far fewer dollars for it to go 10x let's say than for ether sold to go 10 and so I think there will still be some of those tokens when as we get deeper into the froth here that you know still outperform Ethan soul and go you know parabolic and people like oh my God like you know this is incredible and you know those things will then draw down 95 to 98 and a half perent or whatever it is but we are still going to get some outperformance from the long tail specifically because people are starting to give up on that outperformance happening you know that is the the setup for it to happen again um but then you know longer term we do have to um we do have to get to a much more balanced Market structure where circulating is closer to FTV and teams are operating Protocols are you know inflating Supply based on Capital needs or debt or you know managing at stady State based on protocol profitability everyone listen if you want unfuck your future let me help you follow this channel subscribe click the notifications and you'll get everything as soon as it comes out see you there I also thinking through I've been speaking to uh Kevin Kelly at Deli good friend of mine talking about attention being Upstream of everything and if I think about this space more than anywhere else yes there's some proven things that don't require attention they require Capital soana ethereum Bitcoin but the rest of the space is is attention and it tokenizes attention in various forms whether it's helping build a product by our awareness or just a mean whatever it is doesn't really matter the issue I've got is we are growing tokens faster than the we're growing net new attention so there's a finite amount of attention that's currently in the space and therefore we're all struggling with this you simply can't keep your eye on everything you so you you have to farm it out right you know some anom will be looking at you know the really the the real kind of risk end of the table somebody else will be looking at different part because you just can't keep on top of it which tells us we probably got too we don't have enough attention for the amount of opportunity or whether those turn into opportunities or not which is one of the reasons why the long tail is very difficult now yeah well the fire of attention will come from further integration with web 2 and traditional Finance right and um those bridges are being built everywhere right like the Bitcoin ETF is a fire hose Bridge right from traditional Finance in into Bitcoin and as we talked about that then flows into other things just in a capital context not strictly a an intention complex because traditional Finance actually doesn't have that many people in the grand scheme that work no but the capital goes out the risk curve which drives attention further down so exactly so you know that bridge is coming into Bitcoin it's going to come into IU it probably comes into salana by the end of next year at the latest right through through ETFs um so that's the the the traditional Finance to uh Crypt Bridge of capital and attention and then you know the web 2 stuff um I think that's that's harder to reason about I mean the the blat drop you know from the the dialect and salana ecosystem I think is quite fascinating and it's going to get people thinking just flipping the the framework from okay it used to be that you try get normies to come to crypto apps and instead it's going to now start to be experimentation around crypto apps embedding in Normie environments right and I think that's going to be the the next application Trend let's call it um so you know blinkx is doing that I think it's worth paying attention to um even though it's very small at this point uh to the move ecosystem so things like movement apto suie um just because there you have like crypto as a whole I'm actually on the on the foundation of sui okay well so you're already there um and like people are not really talking about that ecosystem right now in a way that I find interesting because I always like to go where like people aren't talking about something much it's an uncrowded wave that might get very good and um you know with when you look at the birth of move and suan optos you know it came out of meta that's a big deal people don't realize like how much um you know time and work and money went in from The Meta side to make something for normies right that got pulled in the last you know in the week before launch let's let's say um and then you know spread out to to to the broader ecosystem and it's like crypto people people so hate the incumbents that they'll be like G meta and Facebook but normies will be like wait meta built a lot of this core Tech you know and and especially in Normie Dev um they might find that more credible than the whole rest of crypto right and it also uh with things like ZK login or some of the innovations that are happening there you know you might we we might get to a world where we're spawning you know wallets and and and and they'll be lower security wallets probably but just like we have a wallet versus like a bank account versus a safety deposit box and different you know gradations of security but we might be spawning low security High use wallets off of our Gmail or you know our phone number whatever people choose and so those types of Integrations are coming too um and so we're 16 years in now right from the launch of Bitcoin and we're just finally getting to the place where we've abstracted everything enough to the place where like normies can probably just continue to exist in the the environments they're comfortable in and use you know with crypto being used in the background to give them experiences they want yeah I've been very interested in following the whole sui Journey just because these guys are really at core web two people who then became total experts and web 3 and just seeing how they're abstracting away a lot and also they've got a lot of techn iCal breakthroughs the whole new M Mr centi thing Mr CTI or whatever it is you know the the the latency you know that latency is really important in a web 2 world because we're used to zero latency but in crypto you know we we're used to latency and it's actually bit clunky so there's a lot going on there I do think you're right I think the big breakthrough is going to be integration into that gigantic world of 8 billion eyeballs or six billion eyeballs the blinks one at first I was really like this is incredible and it is great but like I use a Safari browser I can't even see these things even if I use Chrome and I gave it to a friend who's not in the space if they don't have a wallet it's nothing so it's actually for crypto people it when they're having a web two experience we haven't actually bridged that Gap to make it web two for web two and nobody knows what it is or C yeah that's fair that's fair and I mean you know the might end up requiring more competition on you know the phone manufacturers with which salana is of course you know attempting with the Saga phone and you know let's say Elon gets real about launching um a phone to compete with apple you know um that could get very interesting in terms of like how open that could be to blockchain backend systems you know so I think it's so hard to um to figure out the exact unlocks and vectors through which major distribution is going to happen um but you know I guess to to reassure people because sometimes people just asked they're like how do you maintain conviction through all these years you know and all this volatility and like you know all all the questioning and for me it just always goes back to you know these open data structures that are you know can also be thought of as like Global keeper keepers of time for Global coordination they're so foundationally important and in in being keepers of time they're also Timeless and so they have forever and and maybe that's too Grand of a thing to say but it's like they're going to just continue being there chugging along timestamping information and we will find ways to use them you know another way to think of it is they're they're the property rights recorders of the internet right and like property recordation and preservation is what in many ways was the kernel to allowing capitalism to to Blossom you know because I'll invest into doing things if I can you know reliably maintain my property rights and this is the native property rights system for the internet and nothing nothing comes close like it is um it like it is layer one or layer zero or whatever of property rights to the internet and so um right now you know for all of us with been in the space for a long time and are on crypto Twitter and whatever I think one of the sicknesses that we suffer from is we're constantly going to like what's the next day what's the next day what's the next thing like how's this going to get like better and more abstract and like more entertaining but it's like no actually like the basic stuff that people talked about from the beginning will remain the most important but we're so like add and needing the next dopamine hit that we just keep going for the next thing but then normies that come to the space and maybe just buy Bitcoin that could be life-changing for that or you know that decide to set up a wallet so that you know they can send stable coins to a family member somewhere that could be life-changing to them right or if not lifechanging like uh a significant boost in uh you know uh to to one of their say day-to-day activities um or life you know long duration life activities and so that reassures me too right that like while we're all trying to figure out what's next a lot of the world is still just slowly onboarding to the core Basics that will remain most important how i s of framing this I always try and simplify simplify simplify and I've got it down to this this is the underlying it's it's the new underlying infrastructure for the internet as we've talked about and people get confused when I go around uh marketing our Thunder funds people get confused still is but there's this Bitcoin narrative this this narrative that narrative and I'm like stop these these are all decentralized businesses that sell block space and they have different qualities to their block space or a different narrative on what makes their block spaces um effective and that is once people see that that these are essentially decentralized businesses that operate and sell block space people start to understand and what's unique about this infrastructure L it's the first infrastructure ER in history that we can all participate in because of the behavioral incentives of a token system versus equity and so when I look at it I just look at the growth of the space and it grows 100 and something per a year which is twice the speed of the internet because almostly it's built on internet rail so it should go quickly and I just extrapolate that Trend out and I look at it it's like well it's a$2 and a half trillion dollar space today if we Carry On by 2032 it's 100 trillion I'm like that's the largest accumulation of wealth in all human history in the shortest period of time even if I'm wrong by 50% because I'm a total [ __ ] it's the same as a 100 Years of value acral of the S&P 500 in eight years right it's it's bananas it's because we can own this adoption layer and all of these businesses selling block space that's all it's about best thing is just try and capture that growth first you're going do anything in the space stop trying to focus on the one thing just capture two and a half trillion to 100 trillion you'll be absolutely fine right R you're making my calls for 10 trillion this cycle look bearish well I got to I mean my view is like 10 to 15 trillion for this cycle um so roughly in line with you 10 would be normal 15 would be kind of a blowoff end of cycle and we don't know how the what the structure in the cycle is going to be but if you just take that rate of growth and extrapolate It Out by 2032 you get pretty close to 100 trillion because the compounding of these numbers goes up so wildly right so I'm curious you know um you you have a longer track record investing than I do and um you know I'm really like a born and bred crypto investor right like I worked under Cathy um uh for a few years like cutting my teeth on equities at the same time that I was learning about crypto but it is like uh just for me it's been 100% crypto right uh for for the most part I'm curious for you you know what are the ways in which um you manage the information flow and uh manage your own Focus um with within the space because it's like I would presume in areas where you were investing before it was less distracting you know or there was you know less opportunity uh or or a a uh not as broad a set of opportunity now do you do you take that in your approach to say hey I should uh within crypto have played in all these different environments or do you still narrow down to a handful or 20 to 30 this is a great question I I try to explain this to people a lot I don't care what people's philosophies are that's not how you make money what you make money on is owning the best performing asset on a risk adjusted basis so what I tend to find is that the mid to upper part of the curve which is networks gaining adoption do best e l cycle slam this cycle and whoever it's going to be this cycle whether it's suie or whether it's NE or whatever it is I don't know we will see that right that is the easiest opportunity we get in this space to generate wealth so firstly focus on that that's the like do not [ __ ] this up thesis if we're going from Two and a Half trillion to 100 trillion do that you'll make a lot of money yeah um and so then I just filter out as many people as possible I really only get signal from a few people that I'll ever listen to if you tweet something I'll always read what you tweet because I think you'll have a high signal to noise ratio most people are high noise to Signal ratio and so I'll observe it for sentiment and any nuggets but I I try and filter out as much as possible and just stick with unless something shows that Network adoption is slowing I'm right so just capture that right then I don't fomo in the rest I just don't do it so I don't spread I did that last cycle I tried to spread a this narrative that narrative and what I do now is really simple it's it's idiot proof I just put the chart against Solana if something looks like it's a sustained Trend against salana I'll allocate some Capital to it and again only about 10% of my portfolio will I do in that kind of stuff but you can make a lot of money in those and so you know that's what got me into whiff and bonk because they were AB B Melana so I'm like okay I can do that and now you know if anybody shills me something I say well show me the chart outperforming salana and I'll take a look um right that discipline makes it Ultra easy for me because I think because of this everything code liquidity cycle everything is correlated every asset in the world which makes it the and it's all driven by the same debt refi cycle which makes it I think the easiest macro risk-taking environment of all time because the central banks have also taken the left tail out by saying we can't let a collateral fall too far so we will debase currency holy [ __ ] if this is the case then we have the simplest easiest risk-taking opportunity of all time so hyper concentrate I think is is the way now there are people who can do their tail part hyper contate and get it right but the probability is lower and then you you break the first rule which is don't [ __ ] this up because if you get taken out in the and lose your capital and this cycle is going from 2 and a half trillion to 100 trillion that's bad yeah no totally if you have to start over compounding it's brutal well and and and you know I guess to really highlight it even when you're talking about whiff and Bon you're talking about less than 10% of your overall allocation and in reality it's probably one or two% Max that would go to any player like that and I I think that's I'm really you know when I look at it I'm I'm 90 or% Soul why yeah because the chart is outform with Bitcoin and E and there's no there's no philosophy behind it it's like Alli salana love what they're doing and is proving it on the chart if it doesn't prove it on the chart it hasn't got Network effects because you and I talked about this I built that meta's law thesis around this and basically I found that tokens are actually priced rightly almost everything prices pretty much according to the number of active users and the total value transacted so in which case prices are is good right yeah this is one of the the tragedies that I've see in the way in which social media even though it propels crypto because it's intertwined with crypto also is a it's a medium that's set up to mislead from the core of what crypto is so it's like I'm a little more Boomer than you on on a personal basis you know vast majority is bece soul um and uh you know and then of course I run a venture fir right and so we do make Venture Investments and you know um those so you're actually set up the same way as me because you basically have a core portfolio of quality assets the rest of your attention is focused on the tail which is exactly because the core portfolio doesn't need your attach it right and I think that's the like one of the core things I think about for for crypto at large is it's a way to better distribute Capital because it's like for capitalism to work um everyone needs to become a capitalist in the sense that they need to manage capital of some kind and I do think that you know blockchains it it used to be you just had the major leaks of um you know call it liquidity now blockchain's allowed for single a double a AAA into the major leagues and so there's a lot earlier distribution there's a lot more um granularity on what you can be a specialist in and the types of capital you want to focus on and and do well off of but you still invest in the indices and the indices are BTC eth and soul right and uh you don't have to do much work at all um sure you can like SOS around a bit um through Cycles to you know juice the the multiplication but you know going back to crypto Twitter itself and the way that social media and Tik Tok and Instagram and whatever is misaligned is it's like those mediums are so fixated on virality and the new thing and who's got Edge and who can stand out in that way um and so it sucks like what is it 90% of the attention into those things um and 10% of the attention on the basics of BTC Soul whereas in reality the portfolio distribution is the opposite well that's telling us the Arbitrage is there right it's like attention the fleeting attention is not qual attention the quality attention is the attention that acrs to the activity on the main lay ones yeah so you're kind of it's kind of telling us that the more attention goes to memes or whatever the latest thing it aird drops or whatever actually you're more likely to gu our attention further you know on the infrastructure layer and and may maybe there's something within that is is I'm starting to believe there's something a lot bigger in attention that we don't yet understand in terms of how we can use this as a major metric because I think what you're saying is something important as well is when all the attentions on short term you're generally make more money on the long term and if everybody's focused on bitcoin you're going to make more money in memes which is why memes crushed it in the beginning of the cycle because every was focused on bitcoin because that's what you do at the beginning of the cycle exactly yeah and you know right now it's like um I look at BTC Ethan soul on you know weekly or monthly or whatever long duration charts and they look great they're like textbook consolidating right yeah but then um and and like you know they they want a spring at some point here and and and and we'll see when but you know then I go and I look on you referring to the banana Zone that's that's on I'm here I'm here for it um yeah banana zone is a fun ride but um yeah and then you you go into crypto Twitter where the majority of the focus the new thing of the meme coins at least right now because those perform so well at the start of this expansion and it's just utter destruction and so it is this this constant flip-flop between you know where the fixation is and where the opportunity is and I think you know what makes that so hard for us as monkeys that want to belong is like the tendency is to go to the place where other people are because then you experience a sense of belonging but that means that the opportunity is already so richly priced that it's not an opportunity anymore and so it's this Conant like breaking away from a sense of belonging um that you have to do which is uncomfortable like most of us don't want to do that and even in our personal lives you probably don't want to do that right that's not good for your personal life so then it's like training your mind to be comfortable doing it in a specific context while in your P personal life hopefully you do find senses of of belonging I also think with people with a bit more money the answer is to rent attention from other participants so what I mean by that is like if I can't do VC and I agree with your thesis and I like your kind of antic cyclicality I should subcontract the attention of that early space to you you're going to do a better job my job is set my tokens do [ __ ] all if I can do that that's great that's why you know we started exponential age Asset Management because of this tail stuff like I'm just going to give it to 14 hedge funds find the best hedge funds in the world let them worry all day and all night about it because their focus their attention is hyperfocused on that and I think there's some way in that I also think the markets are going to allow us to coess Capital around these kind of things we haven't got tokenized funds yet but Cris if we have them okay that's going to be a lot better because you could find an anom or GCR or whoever it is GSR you give them the money in a tokenized fund that they can take care of that part that's totally supposed to do totally yeah and black rock is taking us in that direction um because they are going to tokenize all the things but I have another question for you how has your relationship with Twitter evolved over the years um and and what do you you know I guess what what use do you get out of it now that's a very good question any any of us who've been around for a while have been scarred by it because at first yeah you want to think out loud and you want to help people you know I come with a lot of experience doesn't mean I get everything right but you think out loud you bring people along and helping people I get stopped everywhere in the world I go and people just saying thank you you changed my life I'm like that's brilliant but then when things go bad they go really bad and everybody well not everybody most people are still grateful but there it just becomes this mob mentality and it becomes ugly so you become more guarded we've seen that with Kobe and we've seen it with everyone anom is learning it right now is like you can't because the internet is pretty ugly in in how that works um I'm now I struggle a bit with X now so I tend to use lists more for for really trying to do it and just have a few people that I really want to here from I'm still great probably over scrolling on stuff that just makes no difference to my life whatsoever I'd love to distill it down to oh lots of people are interested in memes or lots of people interested in this and just kind of get signal from that but I'm finding it it very noisy um but one thing I I do see very clear Chris and I think it's the most important thing for all of us to realize is everybody's hopes and dreams are this this is they've taken us seriously that this is the biggest opportunity of all time and the the nice people on Twitter the people you don't see all of their hopes and dreams are in this and I think that's what also drives the emotion of this space as well is people realize there's no other thing like this not a job not going to work for Google at early stage not not doing it from investing in traditional markets this is it and that's quite a big responsibility I think for all of us yeah it's huge I mean because it's it's not just you know open data it's on top of open data is open finance and open opportunity but then you know there also needs to be education and earnest distribution you know which you do a great job of doing with your platform um to help people right but like you and I both know you can be a good investor and still get things wrong all the time um and it's you know X is such an unforgiving place I was actually just sitting down with uh anom yesterday and you know and and I'm sure you have this experience too and it's my experience as well is like the people that stop you in the street stop you to thank you you know if they're like heally are you are you handsome whoever and um that is the vast majority of the experience in real life um you know for for the work we've done in terms of Distributing information about the opportunity but you know it can almost feel like the inverse on X uh where people hear from are the ones who are like remember back in 2017 you were this and you will never be right ever again you know or like uh and and like it is poking and it's like they're direct pokes of the ego right and so that can be an exercise in and of itself but you know I've gone through feel like I'm constantly asking myself how or I'm constantly asking myself how to use it because it's like I started at ARK where I was a research analist I was going very deep and it was like a lot of charts and threads and all that kind of stuff but then like when you're formulating thoughts in in in that level of depth you know once you get to a certain scale people are going to just start to make fun of you when you're wrong in certain places because the more detail you go the more surface area there is to be wrong right and so now a lot of that just stays internal the placeholder yeah because you want to think out loud and get feedback from people you respect but as you say then people misinterpret it when you're just trying to think something through so I get more value out of a conversation with you when I'm saying hey what do you think about this because I don't know then I will do on Twitter because I I can't get it there's too much uh noise not enough signal exactly so then it's like you know it's actually a disincentive to to to think out loud and even I would even just say posting deep thoughts to X is a disincentive to have those Deep Thoughts because the castigation that you can get you know is so intense right so then it's like I just do that less yeah I I I worry less about castigation I've learned to deal with that I just ignore the bad comments unless it's something reasonable and so I've managed to get a bit more stoic about that whole thing and and upset me less because you you have to but you know if I you know if I look at your online presence you play a really important role which is like you are really the zoom out relaxed you know you play the surf dude with a big picture of you really well and that is incredibly helpful to people because everybody loses their minds and you know I try and do much the same kind of narrative is like you know need to do anything and I think your PIN tweet is a very powerful tweet which is like 10 trillion um yeah and I think I think it's important what you do um even if you don't think out loud you think enough for people to understand um how you know generally well constructed your thesis are and you just keep on the right track and stop them panicking right well thank you for that it's it's reassuring um because it is you know it's turbulent and and I think the way I've handled it right now is I just don't have Twitter on my phone in fact the only time I put Twitter on my phone is when I'm traveling so often when I'm tweeting the most it means I'm traveling because I'm in airports or whatever I want to kill but then you know when I'm in a stable place or you know this place for two weeks or back home or whatever it might be then you know it's desktop only um and that you know diminishes kind of the the the perverse addiction cycle but you know it is bummer because it's such a powerful tool you know like and I really appreciate if someone tells me in Earnest how I'm wrong I appreciate that so much like that is probably my single favorite feature of all of Twitter is that I can be told in detail by someone you know anywhere in the world how I'm wrong and it has helped me countless times but it's gotten now to the point where I have to sift through you know so much excess to get the kernels you know that it's like and so I just want a filtration mechanism I guess a better filtration super power found from X which completely changed the experience is as opposed to stating your view about something that you're unclear on ask the question ask the question yeah so you know when when I first heard a fired dance I just went on to X and said can somebody tell me about this or when it's coming or whatever then the signal is incredible so asking questions I found is better than I think this and see what the feedback is and finally just asking the question what you just go and say I don't know what this means or what do you guys think about airdrops you know conversation we were having is this perverse incentives or is this good um you find that most of the really interesting people take time to respond to that totally because it's it's got an intellectual honesty to it right Socratic X maybe that'll be my new approach um well I have some other questions um you know we talked about Market structure a bit um earlier you know what what are what's your view as like the the most important determinant to flows within Market structure because you talk about you know um the the everything code a lot and then do you see it as like uh a waterfall of triggering of flows um that starts in a certain place you know when liquidity comes back in the system and you know rates drop or is it you know everything gushes all at once I'm just curious how you think about the the sequence of FL in Market structure so there are two parts to what drives assets generally particularly the one driven by liquidity long duration assets liquidity is my belief is not a flow of funds it's just a pure debasement of currency inject money here debas there asset optically optically goes up in value so because I went through for this for ages and this is what got me I was midc curving the whole damn thing for so long because I was like I can't see when there is liquidity or QE there's no extra volume in the equity market so therefore it can't be doing anything and that sat in my head for two years before I finally went oh because it's just re I saw in the Cayman Islands over Co I mean property prices went up 50% like that it wasn't because they traded they just went there because of liquidity I'm like okay I'm starting to get it it's it's like magic force that we kind of don't see in the global debasement is about 8% a year so we're mutualize the cost of the servicing the debt across everybody in the world by about 8% a year um and that's like a tax the other way I looked at this cuz at first like how dare they tax us then you say well what price would you put on a put option that your equities don't go down more than 30% and that your house prices are secured and and the global economy is secured would you pay 8% a year for that put option yeah it's probably not wildly mispriced yeah you know and that that's kind of changed my head this is why I think it's we've taken the left tail risk out because we're basically using this 8% as a put option in the entire system so the other question you're asking is okay this is more about the flows the actual flows and I'm thinking here of whether it's into tech stocks or whether it's from F world to cryptand those that bridge let's say the Bitcoin ETF Bridge which is I think of this hot money flows and BC as as um as foreign direct investment yeah so what drives both of those flows is really simple it's the business cycle why because when earnings go up people have more money to invest yeah and so the flows pick up so right now if we look at the ism it's still kind of below 50 and struggling to pick up the forward looking indicates is screaming higher so it's about to pick up but we're not seeing Mass retail participation in crypto why because jobs are still a bit tight the economy is still a bit shitty people just don't have the liquidity you it from the VC business is nobody's had releases of liquidity right all the way from the stack from private Equity all the way down to growth VC there's a real problem except in the early stage token stuff that's it yeah so capital is trapped because there's no earnings going up so if you think of Tesla stock why is Tesla stock relatively low even though it's got all of the technology stuff is because people buy cars when they've got money and they don't have much money right now R are a bit high so that business cycle as that picks up now again if you go back to the everything code and the crypto and the macro Seasons or crypto Seasons the macro summer is really when the ism starts going up earnings start increasing and guess what the worlds are watched with risk- taking because so it's as simple as that I think which is why it's so beautifully on repeat right well and that's that's a new puzzle piece for me at the very basee of you know debasement as the invisible force that just kind of naturally makes prices ratchet up but then you know that's the invisible force and then within the business cycle you have the flows that pick up with earnings um and so separating those two because I'd been thinking that more as CU I I think of crypto is often so flow driven um you know especially as we get later in cycle it becomes really really apparent um but uh the the the debasement rate as the invisible static Force um is useful for me so thank you so then when you go back and look at 2022 liquidity was being drawn withdraw everywhere so guess what all asset prices went down why because the obstacle the value of it was rebasing currency not debasing currency because you reducing supply of currency oh yeah then you get it it's like oh it's like share BuyBacks or it's like burning tokens it's all the same [ __ ] mechanism and it's like once you see it's like oh it's so obvious yeah which is why when I chart all assets against Global liquidity they all look the same nasdaq's 97 a half% correlated to Global liquidity the rest of it is the outperformance because it's a secable market the S&P 500 actually performs in line why because it's a very broad-based economically sensitive index and so it it just kind of follows Global liquidity it gives you no outperformance so owning S&P 500 I think it's done about 8% a year since 201 well that's the same as the debas nasdaq's done about 17 and then Bitcoin in la la land has done 150 because we've got Network adoption models as well which we see in individual stocks in technology stocks that get network adoption in video okay suddenly it does that but we've got a whole a whole technology stack that's doing it on mass so it's it's so fascinating right and then my last question for you at least for now um you know there's always conversation about the Cadence of the crypto cycle right and I totally buy the the everything code um but then you know thus far in crypto it has materialized that you know keep it simple stupid fouryear cycle right it was a Q4 2013 top Q4 2017 top I guess 2017 was December 17 for Bitcoin and gen 18 for ethereum but whatever like you know same rough thing and then you know Q4 2021 top and so part of me is like hey don't overthink it you know um Q4 2025 people always want to uh especially smart people they want to think of the new thing right and so they convince themselves different things will happen and certainly like different things always do happen but a lot of things are roughly always the same you know and so it's holding both those in your mind let sa time and I do have some thoughts of course because I want to think of ways that things could be different and it could be election based but I'm curious what your approach is um to the timing of the cycle and if it even really mattered to you until you see certain price points for BTC and Ethan Soul um what I've learned over the years is if I have a core investing amount to this theme I'm just not going to take it out and then it removes all of this so my entire objective is to buy the sell off so it kind of shifts your focus because you know the highs are lower and the the the lows are higher and the highs are higher so you actually just compound if you want to keep it really stressfree you just say I can't wait for the next 85% correction when it comes in 2026 because I can buy more at cheap prices and you keep compounding the hard thing is last time around was difficult because most people's earnings were coming down but generally speaking you get a bit of a Slowdown but generally if you can just inject new earnings in you will just compound wealth which is why Bezos and all these guys are the richest people in the world because they one bet and never got out of it and people I see this people are now desperate because they understand a cycle to trade this thing so my particular view is don't use price use time if you want to take some lifestyle chips off you want to buy a new house and buy a new car whatever it is take some off at the end of this year at whatever price and then you can run the rest so then I try and break it down probabilistically is okay what does the structure of this cycle look like just our Interest really and and I this is what I'm using signal from on Twitter is just trying to listen to everybody people are insanely fearful of the short stunted cycle ended the cycle last time yeah and I remember the 2017 top and how balous that was and the 2013 yeah and like 2013 2017 were much more similar than the last one and don't forget we've gone a global pandemic there was a lot of other factors at play so I'm like that was probably the outlier don't expect everything to repeat perfectly but like Q I'm probabilistically saying well it's just probably goes the end of the year my macro work on liquidity says liquidity Peaks out just Peaks out not goes negative or does anything else just Peaks out by about June or July so 25 of 25 so but I'm seeing Twitter just tie itself in knots about that fear of the the last stage part and so they they desperately want to sell earlier yeah they they're so scared of it they want to sell earlier which makes me think the 201 13 cycle feels more similar where everyone's going to try and take profit the market goes down and then rips in your face again because it's not over yet so there's a lot of playful here you know could it just finish in in March or something that'll be really OD the short cycle I think that's off the table a slightly stunted cycle I think it's PTSD I think your intuition is right it's like well this finished the end of the year every time the everything code is the same Deb fit refinance cycle why necessarily would it change because as you pointed out before the end of a bull market is not about liquidity it's about flows yeah so the end of the bull market is where it it kind of disconnects because it's it's all of those people who stupidly didn't get in when we've been begging them for the last two years that's when they they make their mistake totally because in 2021 liquidity probably peaked what six months before the top like Global liquidity yeah yeah yeah I I suppose the only way I can entertain a stunted cycle is if um Biden remains president and you know gendler is further in power and I wouldn't even think of it as a stunted cycle I would just think of it as a longer consolidation you know and and and and I think that would weigh on some people and other people would be like this is great like we can remove some of like that will an extended consolidation will wash out a fair amount of financial nihilism and excess to speculation because it'll just be too boring you know and especially if like you're on Leverage then you know it it it just won't be profit enough that's the only way I struggle with that from a pure investment perspective I get it a bit of lower volatility will produce great outcomes IE the applications there can build properly you know we've got time to test stff and everything's not driven by price but I don't think the financial nism is going away because it can't it's like the average 35y old 30 old is so screwed that they really don't have a choice if they don't do this they're just going to go on poly markets or they're going to go to the lottery well lotteries for Boomers they just go f markets you can't stop it now because they don't have the upside um yeah and so you know I think the attention of speculation and the dream of wealth just keeps doing it you know it's that whole I need to unfuck my future idea that I talk about that's so pervasive so I I think it's difficult for it to go away out out of crypto and if it is the big opportunity who are us to say to people well you can't drive the next leg of it I don't know I just that's that's totally fair that's totally fair I mean I I try to I feel like um about you know five six years ago I think I put my value set on investing more and then was disabused of that notion because I was like no uh the market is pricing you know the aggregate value set of all individuals and so it's actually like hubris to think that the market will conform to your value set and it's a good way to get destroyed so you know I I took my lickings there um but you know I think that I actually lean I gave the say a scenario where I could see this being stunted but I give that very minority odds and really just would think of it as longer consolidation I actually think there's a chance it goes longer um and um you know there's there's a number of reasons for that but I suppose um at the end of every week and every month it really doesn't matter to me because people are always asking like when's the top and I put out like you know October 2025 whatever who cares but like it doesn't actually dictate any of my action because my action is dictated week to week month to month really based on what BTC eth and soul do and then looking at what those three do then looking at what the midtel of RIS does and then looking at what the longtail of risk does and mean coins the the main mean coins have entered my kind of daily assessment of risk appetite or weekly assessment of RIS risk appetite and so you know looking at the risk spectrum is really what drives my investment decisions you know and so it's not um I think a lot of people look to both of us as like long-term oracles because we do have a long-term view um and that keeps us mostly in the market regardless of what happens but any at the margin action I'm still taking based on weekly monthly or quarterly updates so here's another thought that I'm thinking through you it's based a little bit around your idea of a longer cycle and again I think this is probably more likely from technology stocks than crypto but I think it probably applies is I think one the paths of most pain is 2026 liquidity gets drawn out the system a bit it's not 2022 all over again people have PTSD why is if Bitcoin only goes down 40% right the Nate goes down 20 and totally and then we then we go into a bubble cycle because if you think of the AI narrative the robotics narrative the EV narrative I mean these are all combining into one super narrative right this exponential age idea is is going to be ridiculous and I think this is going to be the last pause that we get before we really go into complete banana Zone but everything and my my actual risk is all the people who come out of the market don't get back in again because they can't right right yes God that would be brutal you can see why right because everyone's now like a get it goes at 85% it's a free gift I'll take this every time I'll make my 20x and move on what if you don't get that you might still get your 20x because of a bubble cycle but you you won't get in because you're still waiting yeah you'll be down it'll be down 40% and you're waiting for a couple more 50% drops and they never come that would be agonizing for a lot of people and and you know it's part of why I do entertain these thoughts even though as I just said you know my actions are based you know weekly monthly quarterly annually whatever um because it's I am I am suspicious of the perfectness of the pattern oh we should be that's the job is yeah you know you find the everything code then your job is entirely to be paranoid about it for the rest of time I mean that's what how you test a hypothesis is like where am I wrong where am I wrong where am I wrong right and actually this goes back to X where I feel like sometimes I've had longer term ideas that were ultimately right but I got spooked off of my conviction in that because for a while I got faked by the market and then abused you know by The People's Court and then it end up happening later and I'm like damn it I should have just muted everything and like you know long-term listen to myself um one thing I do notice with the everything code is yes there's a lot of people who kind of understand it but there's a lot of people in total disbelief people just say it can't be this easy right maybe it is maybe it is and if it's not until everybody believes in it that then it's more likely to be super wrong right hearing the opposite opinions you know most of them are just not very grounded opinions they tend to be from you know the peanut gallery about well inflation's coming back and it's going to be the 70s over again or whatever the Nar you can kind of discount all of that stuff unless somebody has a reasonable argument in a way that why liquidity wouldn't come back how they could allow the debt to refinance the only way for me is somehow GDP growth has to magically Trend rate has to change and that can't happen I don't think till about 2030 when the AI and you know the infinite population of AI and robots kicks in and productivity from lower electricity price and all of this I'm like I just you know unless you could show me one of those things that's that's uh going to change the game right now I can't say changing yeah yeah in my mind I boil down the everything code um to capitalism is designed to grow capital and I so fundamentally believe that and see that and you know I was raised by teachers and I've talked about this in other places before but like I was raised pretty distrustful of capitalism and finance and um you know my dad did participate in investing as a retail investor in the teeken Telecom boom and interestingly I think it was probably a more successful uh Pursuit for my grandparents because they bought AOL at the right time but like I think it was all like largely turbulent and so you know I was raised like you know really don't touch capital or don't think too much about Finance but in a relatively I mean middle class but relatively like financially constrained um environment I mean we would travel but you know very middle class for America and then my big unlock when I came to New York in 2014 and worked for Cathy and then you know got to know a lot more players in the financial scene is like no no like you know everyone has to be in capital and uh you know that is the goal of blockchains and that is the goal of crypto and like removing uh the stigma you know but but but the TR the trouble is the majority of people are still not majority in capital and so they will continue to hate Capital because it grows without them and so then how do you and because Capital becomes Capital how do you get capital in the hands of the people who don't have it and then help them grow it this is why I'm really passionate about where the future of social tokens and digital Network States and you know tokenized smaller economies because that creates community and capital is the same thing and they um and so I'm seeing this blending of community and capital everywhere um you know whether it's whether it's GameStop you know in the last cycle or even a bit this cycle or whether it's crypto overall but I do think that social tokens in however whatever format they end up being we're still testing them between nfts and and memes and all this stuff it's all around the same idea but somehow we're going to tokenize economies better small economies that you can participate in and now you've got capital in them before you just couldn't do that yeah totally and you can understand that right because it's been the fracturing we' seen already from the internet the fracturing of media so everyone can participate in media and truth and we have to go through better filtration mechanisms now but now that same splintering and kind of nfic of Medias happening to finance and capital right and so then it splinters into all these p that people can understand and interface with because it becomes distributed as well right as opposed to if you think of media it was you know the big broadcasters and then it became YouTube and now it's everywhere and with Finance it was the big warehouses and asset managers and it's broading out and soon it's going to go everywhere exactly but then I fear what like right now the media we're in a posttruth state and we will work humans innovate and so we're going to you know figure that out but I fear that we will enter a similar kind of post truth and maybe we're already in it for crypto like what is a good investment right there's a lot of like skepticism and like is this a rug is this not and so a little bit in that splintering it's like what when you have the the you know the wirehouses or the three news channels you just assume that's the truth and then you Splinter for a period right and you have you know Mass diversification and variety and then that's like okay well what are the good Investments or what is the real truth and then the next stage from that is back down to the you know filtration or selection of like these are the things relevant to you these are the things relevant to you so perhaps that's the next step for us actually spoke with a team recently who's you know thinking about using um machine learning to you know recommend to people tokens that are relevant to their interest um you know and so it starts to like look at your social and information graph and then filter down to tokens that could be relevant to you that are pre-selected as as being quality you know and so that's you know very early stages of of seeing that type of uh filtration but we definitely need it but the issue is is a lot of what is quality is social consensus it's like you you don't really know um that's true you know I was having a great conversation with meow from Jupiter and we were we were talking about the fact that utility in many cases is the least valuable part of anything if you think attention is everything and the more attention you get the more status you get if you think about the wine industry Louis Vuitton handbags all luxury goods right their utility is actually very small I can carry my lipstick and hairbrush and money in a bag the difference between bag pricing is is attention and satatus um totally and so it becomes very difficult in how to think about these things in this new world now it's easy on the L ones because there's metrics we talked about this before but the further out you go the less you have anything to measure this on outside of social behavior and somehow measuring it and does it matter to somebody I don't know there just something in understanding this and we've seen it with some of the more interesting memes that tried to have utility the moment they do it you can value them on cash flows and you just you just nuke of the value because it's like it's not you shouldn't do that you can't do it no but attention unlike a cash flowing business cash flowing businesses something you can value can drive investment over time meem it's just as long or whatever it is it's just as long as you can capture that attention it's really hard to do right yeah well capturing society's attention for any sufficiently long period is um an exercise on futility for the most part so I figured out the easiest way to play all of this including including the move from Two and a Half trillion to 100 trillion the largest wealth in history I just sat down and thought this thing through I was a be Studio turn of the year and all of the big nft people yeah artists were there and so were mom and so were Su bees and there was just a bunch of Trad art people and you could see firstly I I realized I was teaching them about macro how it drives the nft prices because they're artist they're like why is my nft prices down and it's nothing to do with you it's the sors Rolex watches the S of Fine Wines it's driven by the business cycle blah blah blah they thank you thank you that um so because they were so worried about it but but what I love from then was realizing how smaller group of people really own the culture of the internet in that kind of way in art and that it's basically art World Splinter 2 there's the generative artist so that probably started with um um fenes ringers and you Auto glips being the primary example there's Punk they're just punks and then there's exian people who who are culture and when he speaks of people in fact speak to everybody in the space they're like well excy was there first and he and if you think of those two they've been commenting on social culture the culture of the interet the culture of crypto from the beginning I mean people turns up every [ __ ] day to put a bow around the internet and say good night everyone here's my comment of the day true art right it's brilliant now some of these you don't like some of you like but every single day he's putting a bowling into that and wishing everybody a good night and I suddenly realized okay if you're going to generate a lot of wealth I've seen this before because a lot of my ex- colleagues were the big hedge fund managers who who owned the big hedge fund businesses they became obscenely Rich what did they buy property and art all of them you know many of them have got multi-billion dollar art collections then I remember the Russians coming in after the Berlin war came down they started really getting wealthy in early 2000 um they bought everything in the Art Market everything property market then we saw with the Chinese we saw with the Indians we saw with the Silicon Valley guys they've all done the same trade and we're going to do that all over again and what's so interesting is humans like to take a snapshot of culture from when the magic was happening and we all know Chris that the magic is happening now it has been for a few years because we're all one degree of separation from each other and that goes over time and right so anybody makes a lot of money is likely to celebrate this with high-end nfts particularly the culturally relevant ones um because it's it captures this Essence and then once you rinse a hundred trillion dollars of capital through they just trade at infinite prices yeah I'm with you because property and nfts and I mean I think of property in this environment is e Soul BTC well property and art um and so we know what that is in the real world and then in the the the digital world I do think of the property is BTC e soul and you know whatever the major uh maintainers of property rights in state um and then you know there will be the art of course as part of that and physical property too I mean a bunch of Rich crypto people are going to buy a bunch of big properties I mean it's just what happens so I just think you if I look at this space I started buying as much as I could afford of of x copy and be um and just putting in a longterm holding because I'm like okay I know where this bet is going if I give myself a 15E time Horizon for this this stuff is going from 50 Grand 100 Grand to 100 million that's it's a very simple thesis and I've gone to all of the big art collectors I know in the space and traditional guys given them my thesis they're like it's a no-brainer so they all started buying them as well I kicked off a whole frenzy when I wrote about this thesis but I'm just thinking for myself selfishly is where do I keep long-term savings because you don't want necessarily the kind of optical volatility of always being in the layer ones or whatever it is I don't want to go back to trafy yes I'll buy some real estate to use for lifestyle but what is the thing that I'm going to store money in I'm like it's going to be nft probably well I might have to go nft shopic um I can't say that I've ever uh I need to I I'll send you my article I'll send you my article because it's all still part of the same thesis I'm just trying to think what are the knock on effects of a lot of wealth being generated and saying that this is a culturally relevant moment in time this is as relevant as the 70s were to the warhall collectors right it was like was the thing they all remember it Studio 54 it's all it's warhole it's um what Jackson pollet meant to the whole per all of that stuff is culture it was the Rolling Stones it was the Beatles it was the Len Zeppelins all capsulate in that one picture and you we a bit of that cultural history and it gets more and more importantly with time to the people who were there when it was happening and everything that comes afterwards and then you know everyone's purchasing power increases and so it makes total sense that they go and value over the very long term um yeah I only have you know the only valuable nfts I have are really madlads um and the reason I bought some of the madlads is because that was born in the fire of the last be Market of salana you know and I was like okay this is interesting like if you're paying attention here then you're a bare Market Survivor and you know there was a lot that's going to spot off from this but um you know I'm not a I suppose I'm too much of a surf BM to be much of an art collector yeah but there again why is I would imagine the x copy or be are right up your street because it's cultural it's not about art yeah the generous of art yeah that's all about art history and you know sipping a glass of penino in a gallery this stuff is just it's funny it's just cool it's striking you know it's that right totally well I very much enjoyed this conversation where all as ever um I'm going to end up getting lunch before my next meeting but um thank you for making this happen thank you as always my friend I just love having time to think stuff through with people you know as I think people realize this neither of us pretend we have all the answers but when you get a chance just to the fact with something to say what do you think about this how do you think about it this is how we all actually form opinions it's not from the screaming and shouting at Twitter it's just talking to people and having a meaningful conversation so thank you as my friend totally yeah and it's why I agree to this because it's uh I enjoy the conversation I'm I'm a bit tired of doing the podcasts and you know just being asked endless questions and pretending like all the answers are for sure true so um it's it's a good it's a good context that you operate in um and I suppose I'll see you in the metaverse absolutely my friend take care so as ever a fabulous conversation with Chris to get an hour and a half of his time is just really special to be able to Just Bounce Around ideas think stuff through pick each other's brains it's really what this show is to me and I hope you really enjoy it now if you are on your crypto journey and you're trying to make sense of it all then at real Vision we have something for you which is real Vision crypto it's a product that's specifically designed for those of you who want to start breaking down the signal from the noise and getting more signal you see we have everything from technical analysis to weekly shows to breakdowns of what's going on it's a really good place to start your journey to understand how this all comes together and how you can benefit from it now it's it's all part of the real Vision platform it's it's called an add-on so when you go to the real Vision Marketplace that's the place that we've got all of these independent Research Services plus extra add-ons from real Vision there when you scroll down you'll see real Vision crypto it's priced very very well to allow you that first step in your journey and is going to give you a lot more information that gives you a lot more signal a lot less noise so obviously on the realvision platform real.com it's free to join but you can pay for the add-on and I think it's going to really help you in your journey from there we also have the crypto Academy as well so that's more learnings to help you in that journey and eventually once you feel ready for it we've got real Vision Pro crypto so we've got you covered in your entire crypto Journey from free content all the way through to hanging out with the experts in Pro crypto anyway I'll see you next time as we try and figure out more of this Nexus between macro crypto and the exponential age of Technology 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