Transcript for:
The Future of Investment: Insights from BlackRock

the US has benefited from the dollar serving as the world's Reserve currency for decades but that's not guaranteed to last forever if the US doesn't get its debt under control if deficits keep ballooning America risks losing that position to digital assets like Bitcoin and this is a recent quote from Larry think the CEO of Black Rock the world's largest asset manager when you consider that black rock has been one of the largest buyers of Bitcoin via its ETFs it begs the question of what this huge and powerful company is planning today we look at the answer my name is Nick and you're watching the coin Bureau the quote in the introduction comes from Larry's annual letter to investors which is titled quote the democratization of investing in other words making it easier for retail investors to access the capital markets which Larry describes as one of the most powerful and important systems on the planet Larry starts by explaining the first stock exchange opened in Amsterdam Way Back In 1602 and that prior to this period investing was only available in a private form and accessible only by the wealthy of course Larry does acknowledge that 90% of investors in the stock exchange were wealthy too even so the introduction of the first public markets 400 years ago brought investing one step closer to being available to the average person case in point the remaining 10% of investors in the Amsterdam stock exchange were regular folks uh which meant that there wasn't much retail for the institutions to dump on Jokes Aside Larry points out that the fundamental purpose of a public market is to create a quote Prosperity flywheel wherein people invest in markets the companies in those markets make more profits and share those profits with the people who invested in them in the form of dividends and such Larry highlights the fact that today 60% of Americans are invested in stocks a figure that's roughly doubled since the 1980s meanwhile though Global GDP has grown more in the last 40 years than it did over the previous 2000 but Larry does underscore the fact that this growth hasn't been equal on the contrary those with wealth I.E those with assets have gotten wealthier and those without assets have gotten poorer except for a few segments of the working class in a few countries that have benefited from globalizing ation logically Larry believes that this capitalist system needs to be fixed and from Larry's perspective the solution is simple make it easier for the average person to invest in assets and they'll be able to build wealth too to that end Larry believes that two things need to happen markets need to be made more accessible and more people need to become investors in Larry's own words quote more investment more investors that's the answer but but obviously Larry seems to omit the fact that this so-called democratization of investing won't address the underlying problem all it will do is make existing asset holders even richer but uh let's not jump the gun just yet by the way we've noticed that at least 40% of the people who watch these videos are not subscribed to the channel yet so if that's you you can change that right now by hitting the Subscribe button down over there and you may as well hit the Bell as well to make absolutely sure you don't miss any of our upcoming videos back to the video now in the next part of the letter Larry makes a peculiar claim and that's that the money to finance things will not come as much from Banks governments or corporations instead Capital markets will be the main vehicle for financing and Larry reveals that black rock has believed this since he founded it in 1989 and what's interesting is that Larry believes we are still in the early stages of this process but that this process is going to accelerate and that's just because governments cannot afford to spend that much on infrastructure because they're already massively in debt they'll have to rely on the markets at the same time companies cannot afford to borrow much more from Banks because lending standards have become so much more constrained they too will have to rely on the markets and in case it wasn't clear enough Larry is basically saying that governments and companies will need to rely on Black Rock the caveat is that it's not black rock that provides the money and this is one of the biggest misunderstandings when it comes to asset managers they are merely the custodians of other people's capital and the reason why black rock and Co have so much influence is because of how they've been investing this Capital anyways Larry notes that there's over $25 trillion sitting in Banks and money market funds and claims that this quote abundant capital is quote being deployed to narrowly if this sounds familiar that's because officials in the EU have been saying something similar about European Savings in case you missed the memo EU commission president Ursula felan and European Central Bank president Christine lagard have both talked about how they're going to use the savings of European citizens to fund the eu's agenda naturally this has led to quite a few questions and of course concerns it looks like black rock wants to do the same thing but the difference is that they want to use carrots while the EU wants to use sticks in Larry's view the only reason why these savings aren't being invested is because there aren't any investment that these Savers find appealing as such all that's needed is better offerings what better offerings does Black Rock have in mind well infrastructure via private markets Larry reveals that a staggering $68 trillion of infrastructure spending will be required between now and 2040 in case you forgot governments don't have enough money for this and neither do the corporations apparently so who is going to pay for it uh the retail investor apparently Larry seems to claim that investors will benefit financially from this infrastructure and this foreshadows the privatization of said infrastructure one to use a road well you'll need to have a highway stamp one to cross a bridge pay a toll and so on and so on case in point Larry says quote the beauty of investing in private markets isn't about owning a particular bridge tunnel or midsized company he then claims that the real benefit is diversification and argues that the Next Generation portfolio should be 50% stocks 30% bonds and 20% private credit but there's just one problem and that's that most retail investors can't currently invest in private credit after recounting how Black Rock democratized access to public markets with ETFs Larry proclaims that black rock will do the same thing for private markets foreshadowing its dominance in this investing Niche and it begins with an investment fund called Global infrastructure Partners or Gip which Black Rock acquired last October quote Gip owns some of the world's most important infrastructure assets on behalf of our clients London's Gatwick Airport Key Energy pipelines and over 40 global data centers if that wasn't spooky enough Black Rock has purchased quote a network of 43 ports across 23 countries and quote one in every 20 shipping containers moving around the world passes through these ports each year and if this trend continues Black Rock could one day own most of the world's infrastructure but again it's not black Rock's money that's been used to purchase this infrastructure per se it's the money of its clients the catch is that black rock is likely to use its influence in private markets the same way it has in public markets with ESG and the like and this is the aspect of black rock that is uh a tad bit scary we regret to announce that the Bro crypto podcast is sponsored by the coin Bureau deals page this is the place where you can find the very best deals and Promos in the crypto space from massive trading fee discounts to insane signup bonuses on some of the best crypto exchanges so check out the coin Bureau deals page today anyhow partway through his letter Larry pivots to retirement and asset tokenization which he sees as another technology that could further democratize investing regarding retirement Larry commences with a sobering statistic more than half of retirees fear running out of money more than they do death not only that but 33% of Americans have no savings and a third of Americans also said they would have a hard time scraping together $500 to pay an unexpected Bill and this makes you wonder exactly how democratizing finance will help given that a substantial percentage of people are struggling to pay bills if that wasn't concerning enough Larry also touched on the fact that Social Security will run out of by 2035 and that even Pension funds are only 80% funded put differently the boomers are cooked but Larry believes that black rock well they can help but just give us some money and we'll buy some roads and bridges no money no problem Larry has a three-point plan to help you the first is working with nonprofits to set aside money for the poorest plebs the second is to try and auto enroll all workers into 401k land and the third is to help young people start investing earlier seems that that's the best that they can do for us on that note Larry points out that the average American estimates that they need over $2 million to retire comfortably they're going to be awfully disappointed when the inflation makes that figure 10 times bigger funnily enough though Larry thinks that 2 million is a lot even more than he was expecting what's even funnier is that given this lofty goal Larry says quote we're going to need better ways to boost portfolios as you might have guessed the answer is to invest in infrastructure via private markets and what's Wild is that Larry admits that any money invested in private markets will be locked for a while quote when you invest in private assets like a bridge for example the value of those assets aren't updated daily and you can't withdraw your money whenever you want it's a bridge after all not a stock fortunately or unfortunately Larry says that Bridges will become liquid Investments eventually he also drops another thought-provoking statistic 30% of all money flowing into US markets is coming from retirement investing what happens when all the Boomers retire and start selling more than they are buying Larry doesn't say but he does recommend a black rock product that schedules these outflows never mind that some of the infrastructure Larry on retirees to spend their money on will only be complete by the time they're dead speaking of which he also reveals that it takes a who in 13 years to get approval to build high voltage power lines in the US and the EU and that's not construction that's just approval that's an issue because we're going to need lots of energy to power the humanoid robots that are going to replace us this is actually not a joke Larry says that the energy demand from AI data centers alone could push existing power grids to the Limit with the states of Utah Ohio and Texas warning about exactly that the irony is that a lot of this has to do with the restrictions placed on energy by uh ESG investing not surprisingly Larry doesn't acknowledge black Rock's role in holding back the development of reliable and constant energy sources he just acknowledges that wind and solar alone aren't going to cut it which is literally the opposite of what ESG investors like Black Rock was saying a few years ago in fact Larry even goes as far as praising nuclear power something that was likewise Unthinkable just a few years ago under the ESG ideology Larry applauds China for rapidly building out nuclear plants but uh he doesn't have anything to say about Germany shutting its nuclear plants during an energy crisis though to add insult to injury Larry shares a graph that shows cases how a person's quality of life is directly related to how much energy they get to use believe it or not but many ESG investors were completely unaware of this and it looks like there are still a few countries that deny the reality of physics on a completely unrelated note Larry Praises Europe's slow walk towards reducing trade barriers within the block which will likely allow for more corporate monopolies to form boosting GDP as always place he also applauds the possibility that AI could be used to address Europe's demographic implosion H some would say a better solution would be to make life more affordable for Europeans to actually have more children but let's not gets into that debate now seemingly out of the blue Larry then changes the topic to bitcoin and says what I noted in the introduction the US dollar is the world's Reserve currency but it may not be for long if the United States continues going deeper into debt he notes that by 2030 mandatory spending and debt servicing will use up all federal revenue Larry then claims that if the US can't get its debt situation under control then the US dollar could lose its reserved currency status and be overtaken by a digital asset like Bitcoin Larry explains that this could happen if investors start to see BTC as being a safer bet than the US dollar but this is highly debatable some would say that investors see gold as the safe haven asset in the current environment evidenced by the fact that gold has recently been hitting all-time highs and continues to Rally higher and higher historically speaking gold was the safe store of value and backed fiat currency so it's a more logical Choice then again it's possible that investors could eventually see Bitcoin as a digital gold for the time being though it's clear that they see it as a risk asset even with Larry claiming that it's quote digitizing gold let's not forget that asset managers are also fans of stable coins and Central Bank digital currencies in any case this ties into the buzz phrase of the moment which is asset tokenization Larry explains that tokenization involves quote turning real world assets stocks bonds real estate into digital tokens tradable online each token certifies your ownership of a specific asset much like a digital deed unlike traditional paper certificates these tokens live securely on a blockchain enabling instant buying selling and transferring without cumbersome paperwork or waiting periods a perfect definition no doubt Larry explains that every asset can be tokenized and if they are it will provide an enormous boost to Capital markets which you'll recall will become the lifeblood of the entire planet per black rocks thesis token assets will democratize access shareholder voting and yield which is certainly good news the bad news is that there's one thing Larry and black rock want and that's quote a new digital identity verification system because apparently existing forms of ID Aren't Enough what's the matter don't you want to build wealth by investing in bridges and roads just tokenize your identity it'll be fine right and this brings me to the big question question and that's what black rock is Planning by this point the answer should be clear the asset manager is trying to suck in as much money as it can primarily from retail by allowing them to invest in private markets primarily for infrastructure which someone needs to pay for when you zoom out it really looks like the powers that be are trying to trick the plebs into keeping the unsustainable Financial system going for just a little while longer remember that the US government is projected to essentially run out of money by 2030 and that's an issue for the Global Financial system you see US Government debt or rather us bonds are the primary form of collateral in the financial system like all assets the price of US bonds is determined by supply and demand the more debt that the US government must issue the larger the supply and the lower that bond prices fall all El equal since the US government is already low on money this means that any further infrastructure spending would require even more borrowing which would cause us bond prices to fall in turn this would cause anyone who uses us bonds as collateral to borrow money to default which is quite a few people this default would result in the forced selling of us bonds causing prices to fall further as prices fall us bond yields would rise which would force interest rates higher in the US making it even harder for the US government to pay back its debt creating a Deb spiral that collapses the US dollar per Larry's Point if that wasn't bad enough most countries are in a similar position financially speaking they've borrowed as much as they realistically can and if they borrow any more it will either cause a spike in interest rates that destroys the economy or a spike in inflation that eventually also destroys the economy the worst part is that the main reason why the economy and the markets have done so well is because of the money that governments have been spending especially the US government if they were to reduce their spending in any meaningful way then the economy and the markets would suffer too if you listen closely it really sounds like a game of musical chairs and the chairs well they're running out and this has institutions like the EU and black rock looking for other chairs to add to the game so that it keeps on going they can all see the tens of trillions of savings that people are sitting on and they want that money notably this is even true in places like China where the CCP is trying to boost domestic consumption and this begs the question of how exactly the powers that be will convince the people with trillions of dollars of savings to invest that money as I hinted at earlier there are only two answers sticks and carrots a stick would be launching a cbdc and manually forcing this money into the markets against the will of the Savers a carrot would be creating a speculative Mania in the markets that incentivizes Savers to allocate their Capital uh to play a song that's so catchy that they voluntarily add their chair to the musical game as the most accessible and most volatile asset class in the world crypto is perfectly positioned to be that song and the craziest part is that the stable coins used to buy these cryptocurrencies are backed by us government debt meaning that every time someone buys a stable coin to buy a crypto they're buying US Government debt and it looks like tokenized assets will trade primarily against stable coins too and you can learn all about that using the link right over here in the top right and I'll see you over there and if you are not subscribed to the channel yet you can do that right over here this is Nick signing off thank you very much for watching and I'll see you again soon