Analyzing Large N Data in Conflicts

Jan 28, 2025

Lecture Notes: Understanding Large N Data in International Relations

Introduction

  • Objective: Comprehend what large N data is and how it applies to US foreign policy and national security.
  • Large N Data:
    • Involves datasets with numerous data points (e.g., 1,848 data points in this case).
    • Differs from case studies which may focus on one or two cases.
    • Useful for asking broad research questions about international relations.

Conflict Type and Death Estimates

  • Research Question: What type of conflict results in more deaths?
  • Conflict Types:
    • Interstate: Conventional conflict between states (e.g., Ukraine and Russia).
    • Internal: Government against rebel groups (e.g., Colombia).
    • Internationalized: Government vs. rebel group with foreign support (e.g., Sierra Leone).
  • Variables:
    • Independent Variable: Conflict type.
    • Dependent Variable: Death estimate.

Data Analysis

  • Software Used: R and R Studio
    • R: Statistical environment.
    • R Studio: User-friendly interface for R.
    • LM Function: Used for linear modeling.
  • Procedure:
    • Analyze data set named "Conflict National Security."
    • Run linear model with death estimate as dependent variable and conflict type as independent variable.
    • Obtain results and summaries from data analysis.

Interpretation of Results

  • Nominal Variables: Interstate, internal, and internationalized are compared.
  • Statistical Significance:
    • High T value and precision indicate significant results.
    • Practical value shows increase in death estimates with certain conflict types.
  • Findings:
    • Interstate conflicts have the highest death rates compared to internal conflicts.
    • Internationalized conflicts also show higher death rates than internal conflicts.
    • All conflict types demonstrate statistical significance (P value < 0.05).

Implications

  • International Relations & National Security:
    • Understanding conflict types and their death estimates is crucial for foreign policy decisions.
    • Awareness of conflict type impact aids in assessing potential intervention outcomes.

Conclusion

  • Key Takeaway:
    • Large N data provides meaningful insights into international conflict outcomes.
    • The type of conflict significantly affects death estimates, impacting policy decisions and interventions.
  • Final Note: Understanding the statistical significance of conflict types can guide informed decisions in foreign policy strategy.