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Investing Insights on AMD and Celsius Holdings

Mar 10, 2025

Lecture Notes: Investing in AMD and Celsius Holdings

Overview of AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

  • Common Nicknames:
    • Advanced Money Destroyer/Disintegrator/Decimator
    • "Advanced Money Doubler"
  • Current Stock Status:
    • Trading at $98 today.
    • Positioned at inning one of a new growth cycle.

Growth Cycle

  • Past Cycles:
    • AMD has experienced both growth and stagnation periods.
    • Recent years showed little to no growth.
  • Current Cycle:
    • Recently entered a new growth cycle.
    • Inning 1: Just started.
    • Inning 2 (2025-2026): Expect insane growth rates, especially in earnings per share.

Key Developments

  • Mi 350:
    • Launches mid-2023; represents the start of Inning 2.
    • Strong customer feedback; competitive with Nvidia.
  • Mi 400:
    • Launches in 2026; expected to be a game-changer.

Market Position

  • Competition:
    • AMD is set to challenge Nvidia, especially post-2025.
    • Acquisition of ZT Systems for $4.9 billion to boost AI infrastructure capabilities.
  • Industry Support:
    • Big tech companies prefer AMD's rise to avoid Nvidia's monopolistic pricing.

Future Prospects

  • Market Cap:
    • Potential to reach a trillion-dollar market cap in the next 3-5 years.
    • Not expected to reach Nvidia's $3 trillion, but significant growth anticipated.

Investment Strategy

  • Buying Strategy:
    • Continuous buying recommended, especially before Mi 350's mass production.
    • Stock price expected to rise dramatically post-launch.

Overview of Celsius Holdings

  • Stock Status:
    • Currently priced at $25.
    • Previously approached $100 due to a Pepsi deal.

Growth Challenges

  • Pepsi Inventory:
    • Post-deal growth was artificial due to excess inventory.
    • Current prices reflect a correction.

Future Growth

  • Upcoming Cycle:
    • Anticipated beast growth cycle starting late 2023 into 2026-2027.
  • Alani Nutrition Acquisition:
    • $1.8 billion deal pending approval.
    • Targets a female demographic with potential growth beyond energy drinks.
  • Leadership:
    • New COO, Eric Hansen from PepsiCo, to drive future strategy.

Market Valuation

  • Stock Pricing:
    • Current stock is cheaper than pre-Pepsi deal.
    • Revenue and brand presence have grown.

Investment Strategy

  • Buying Strategy:
    • Recommended to purchase before the next growth cycle begins.
    • Potential for price increase as market conditions stabilize.

Conclusion

  • AMD is on a promising growth track with significant gains expected post-Mi 350 production.
  • Celsius Holdings offers a rebound opportunity after inventory corrections with anticipated growth fueled by acquisitions and strategic leadership changes.
  • Investments in both AMD and Celsius Holdings could yield long-term gains as per current market analysis and projections.

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