Breaking Into My Own House and the Power of the Pre-Mortem

Story of Breaking into the House

• Event: Broke into house after returning from a visit to a friend's house (minus 40 degrees)
• Issue: Keys forgotten inside, visible on the dining table
• Solution: Checked other doors/windows, finally broke basement window
• Consequence: Covered window with cardboard, planned to call contractor next morning, worried about cost

Effect of Stress on the Brain

• Neuroscientist's Perspective: Stress causes brain to release cortisol
  • Cortisol raises heart rate and modulates adrenaline
  • Clouds thinking
• Personal Experience: Returned home briefly under stress, forgot passport, almost missed flight

Concept of Pre-Mortem

• Introduction: Idea shared during dinner with Nobel Prize winner Danny Kahneman, originally from psychologist Gary Klein
• Pre-Mortem vs. Post-Mortem: Pre-mortem involves anticipating things that could go wrong and putting measures in place

Practical Pre-Mortem Techniques

Around the Home

• Designate a Place: For items like keys, passport, and reading glasses to avoid misplacement
• Scientific Basis: Importance of the hippocampus in spatial memory

Travel Tips

• Cell Phone Pictures: Take photos of important items like credit cards, ID, and passport; store them in the cloud

Medical Decisions

• Impact of Stress: Cortisol release leads to clouded thinking; pre-plan to mitigate this
• Focus on a Specific Example: High cholesterol and statins
  • Question to Ask: Number Needed to Treat (NNT)
  • Example: NNT for statins is 300; 1 in 300 helped, side effects in 5% of cases
• Other Medical Decisions: Similar stats for procedures like prostate removal surgery

Ethical Consideration

• Informed Consent: Patients have the right to understand risks and benefits, such as NNT and side effects
• Quality of Life: Discuss preferences for treatments and potential outcomes ahead of time

Final Thoughts

• Train for better decision-making during stress
• Recognize human flaws, prepare for potential failures
• Installation of a combination lock as a preventive measure for future similar incidents

Conclusion

• Organization is a process, and implementing pre-mortems can help across various aspects of life (home, travel, medical decisions)