we begin with some breaking news Hamas says its political leader Ismael Hanah has been assassinated in tahan Iran's revolutionary guard has confirmed the death saying hania and his bodyguard were killed in an attack on his residents in the Iranian Capital so far there has been no claim of responsibility however Israel has in the past vowed to kill Hanah and other leaders of Hamas after the group carried out the October 7th Terror attacks and joining me in the studio we have DW Middle East analyst Shani rosanes Shani Hamas is calling this a assassination attempt can you tell us what we know about the circumstances around it so far yes well hania was in tran along with other people um leaders of hasbalah and other leaders of uh groups connected to Iran and supported by Iran for the inauguration of the new president that took place yesterday shows you how comfortable and and safe they all feel there uh he was targeted apparently by a shot from a a outside of Tran maybe also a drone that it was connected to it's unclear exactly the details but very clear that it was an an attempt for a very precise hit and it did hit hania while sleeping with his as you mentioned a bodyguard in his room uh and it's confirmed also by the Iran revolutionary guards this is the case this is pretty remarkable if if this is confirmed to be Israel what does it tell you about what kind of message they are trying to send with this attack well first of all it's not going to be confirmed Israel is never going to take take responsibility for it this is Israel's mod sity they never do take uh responsibility though we know they have acted underground mostly un targeting officials in the Iranian nuclear program in the past but um you know trying to make this statement by you know assassinating a leader of Hamas on uh Iranian soil in the heart of the uh Iranian Capital that's of course a message that Israel is trying to send very out loud saying no matter who you are no matter where you are we're going to get you sh with us I'd like to take a closer look now at the Hamas leader and see if we can look more closely at the life of isma Hanah Ismael hania was pictured alongside Iran's new president just hours before being assassinated the 62-year-old had been in tran for the inauguration ceremony hania left Gaza several years ago and ran hamas's activities from qat where he lived in Exile he was born in a refugee camp near Gaza City in 1962 and joined Hamas in the late 1980s hania Rose through the ranks and went on to become the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority in 2006 Hamas named him the group's leader in 2017 even after leaving the Gaza Strip he acted as the group's political Chief Hamas is deemed to be a terrorist organization by the EU us and numerous other countries in April Israeli a strikes in Gaza killed three of hania's sons and four of his grandchildren according to Hamas at the time hania insisted their deaths would not affect ongoing ceasefire and hostage talks despite Han's strong stance some diplomats regarded him as being more moderate than other hard line members of the group his successor on the ground in Gaza Yahya sinoa is is deemed to be the person who orchestrated the October 7 Terror attacks on Israel it's not known what involvement hania had in organizing the attacks however Israel held him responsible and included him in a list of potential targets Shany tell us a little bit more about hania what was his role within Hamas and can you just spell out for us a little bit what the organization looks like and exactly where he fit in well first of all um Hamas was found in 1987 by a a milit a a she a a a religious figure name known Ahmed Yassin he's still a very much beloved character among Palestinians and in the Arab world and hania grew up in the same Village and was sort of his part J he was his helper he was very much connected to the founding father of Hamas and that's why we see Hanah as a figure that is quite known uh despite his actual uh strength or influence de facto on the daily operations of Hamas and this is exactly where we lead it leads it to understanding of the Kamas Network how it works it's not much of a you know the hierarchy in Kamas is not a simple one as we would imagine in a western organized you know uh unit it's it's very much it has two different main branches one of them dealing more with the military aspect also on the ground in Gaza this is where we see sinir which we know he is The Mastermind behind October 7th and then there's the political Branch where we see hania was kind of uh kicked out of the strip because of his rivalry with uh senoir who is the leader of the military branch and he was dealing more with negotiations with diplomatic ties he was very much the guy of Hamas in Iran he was very much in charge of the connections with the Iranian regime um so when we talk about also connection to October 7th what happened there there's still uncertainty of how much did he know how much did he orchestrate in this specific operation but there's no doubt that he was very instrumental to the Kamas organization as a whole for the you know uh fundraising mechanism and other you know uh the support that get from Iran and so forth so looking at hania as somewhat of the face of diplomacy for Hamas when you look at efforts to bring to an end the war in Gaza um what do you think his death will mean for efforts at a ceasefire well I I I think this this deal is dead in the water and I don't know if Israel operated on the grounds that they already assumed this deal would not be come to frish or is it you know a result that they were willing to take into account because it was more important for Israel to show this achievement of being being able to reach Hanah to use this very rare opportunity because hania is traveling a lot but usually he's situated in Qatar you know katar's role as a mediator in uh in the talks is such that Israel cannot really operate on Qatari ground these days so uh there was an opportunity and Israel seized it but it's clear that you know it brings you know any talks about a deal for now to any to a hold you know Hamas will not going to show any willingness to negotiate with Israel to show weakness to show any compromise but we also need to see it that the leadership of Hamas and Gaza is becoming more and more isolated through Israeli assassinations attempts in the last month we've seen now hania before that we've seen lri we've seen other people that are leaders high ranking in the organization um and um it's hard to predict if it makes uh senoir the leader in Gaza more adamant in sticking to his you know to the war which will hit 300 days tomorrow or is it as what netan hope is going to break him to finally uh you know make more concessions sh I find it really interesting um you've said that he must have felt hania must have felt comfortable and safe even being in Iran for this presidential inauguration are are you surprised that he was there in the first place given what we now know that he then likely became had several visits to Iran and we know he had very strong ties with them I think the Assumption for Iran and for many other you know we have also seen kbal leaders yesterday in in Iran the Assumption was after um April 14th this is when uh Iran Iran launched a direct ATT attack on Israel um they felt like Iran has sent a message kind of a red line was crossed we were talking back then because it was the first time that after many years of Shadow War you know through Proxes and so on that you know that the Iran Israeli hostility came to the front line became a direct confrontation of a direct Irani talk on Israel and the feeling was I guess that this has sent a message to Israel of deterrence you know and what Israel is doing now very clearly is saying we are not deterred you know we don't care if you in tan or anywhere else in Iran we don't care about that we will get you because you are on our Target list and um and therefore we're not also afraid of Iranian response this is what Israelis are trying to say basically what are the internal political Dynamics within Israel that have made this possible I understand there's going to be a security cabinet meeting coming up later today correct yeah netan uh he's now basically a oneman show I mean he has the defense minister Galant who is also very much of a of a hawk he's very much you know he's a hardliner he very much pushes for more and more confrontation but then um the moderate forces who were were in his cabinet has are no longer there for a couple of weeks this is Ganson his supporter aen Cott so netan is actually on the one hand far more uh at the um at the mercy of the extreme right in his government because he needs them in order to maintain his power but then also at the same times he has very less very fewer people who might stop him from taking steps like this that could escalate into a bigger War you know uh directly with Iran and also you know one of the reasons we're talking about Iran and Israel it's because what Israel has been saying for years that the proxies of Iran that are surrounding Israel this sort of Ring of Fire um that is very much active we see it in the South with hudis and Yemen where Israel was operating 10 days ago we see it in the northern border um and of course this the still ongoing fight in Gaza all the time we're talking tomorrow is going to be 300 days of fighting in Gaza but do you think without this influence of the extreme right on Netanyahu that Israel would have gone ahead with a strike with a with what Hamas is saying is an assination on its leader um in in other circumstances well Israel said very clearly from the beginning any leaders of Hamas anybody associated with Hamas for us is as a legitimate Target it also has American support in that aspect when it comes tobala and Hamas you know seen both by also the Americans at A T organization is also understanding Israel's need to to fight um and defend itself as it would say even people like C Harris where is considered to be a bit more hostile are behind this this line of action of Israel so in a way this is nothing new but then the more Iran is drawn into this you know directly into this conflict which is what we're seeing might probably will happen the higher the stakes are and you know the easier you know the chance for an all escalation this is also why we're seeing responsive from China through Russia of course everybody in the region Kar Jordan Lebanon everybody is concerned everybody wants to put the Flames down but there's seems to be very little um attentiveness or willingness for Coop you know diplomatic efforts right now now on either of the sides especially in Israel yeah the implications are truly Global thank you so much for joining us with that analysis that is DW's Middle East analyst shanie rosanes so if you're just joining us let's bring you up to speed here the Palestinian militant group Hamas says its political leader isma hania has been assassinated in tan here is what we can say for sure so far in a statement Hamas says hania was killed while on a visit to Iran's Capital tan to attend the inaugural ation of President mud pesan Iran's revolutionary guard has also confirmed his death now no one has claimed responsibility for the assassination but the suspicion has fallen on Israel which has vowed to kill hania and other leaders of Hamas Israel has not yet responded to the allegations a Hamas official says the group will respond to hania's death the official calling it a quote cowardly act that will not go unpunished and of course uh worth mentioning hania's death this comes after Israel said it had killed a top Hezbollah commander in an air strike on a suburb of Beirut Israel blamed the group for an attack that killed 12 children and teenagers in the Israeli occupied Golan Heights on Saturday an attack which Hezbollah denies involvement in and we can get more now from journalist Kareem Al goari joining us from Beirut glad to have you back kareim can you tell us what you have heard what kind of reaction uh you've gathered there to to these two uh killings well it's basically here in Beirut everyone who is close to the Palestinian CA and that is a lot of people in Lebanon uh they are angry they are angry because this they say this was even if they're not Hamas supporters they say this was an extra Judiciary killing of one of the Pol Palestinian political leaders so but of course we have especially anger in within the ranks of hisbah and also within the Palestinian camps here in Lebanon and on the other hand if you ask the other Lebanese there is a big worry what's going to happen now how this situation is escalating and how Lebanon might be might get involved in this Kim stay with us for just a moment we've talked about how this attack comes hours after another major development in the region with Israel saying it's killed a top Hezbollah commander in an air strike on a beout suburb I'd like to take a closer look at this Hezbollah the pro-iran militia in Lebanon has confirmed that the commander was in the building at the time but they have not confirmed his fate it was a question of when not if Israel would retaliate after a projectile hit a soccer field in majal Shams in the Golan Heights and killed 12 children and teenagers Israel blamed Hezbollah and warned the militant group who would pay a heavy price Israel's response was a rare air strike on the outskirts of Beirut lebanon's Health Ministry said the attack killed at least one woman and two children and wounded [Applause] dozens the Israeli military says the strike was targeted and killed a top Hezbollah Commander fuad shukur Fu chukur was the rightand man to kasan asala kis bala's leader and his advisor in planning and directing attacks and operations the United States says shukur orchestrated the 1983 bombing of the US Marine Barracks in Beirut which killed 241 US military personnel and had put a bounty of $5 million on his head he's been one of the group's leading military figures since it was established by Iran's revolutionary guards more than four decades ago after the Israel Hamas war broke out on October 7 Shakur was accused by Israel of being behind many of the Drone and missile attacks that Hezbollah carried out against Israel if Israel's claim proves true Shakur will be the most senior Hezbollah Commander to be killed since 2016 when Mustafa baddin the group's military commander in Syria died in an explosion in Damascus the strik has threatened to escalate hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah at a time when tensions are already running hot the UN is urging cam fearful that the region could be on the brink of a wider War let's get back across to kareim El goari in Beirut so if it turns out to prove true that Israel has in fact uh killed Shakur what kind of response would you expect from Hezbollah yeah they they made clear that for sure in any case there will be a response the question is how the response will look like um normally you have kind of this Unwritten uh rules of engagements between isbah and Israeli Army a military Target for a military Target so in a way you could of course consider for sh a military Target as he was one of the big military commanders uh of hisbah and you could have maybe expected that the answer of hisbah then is another military Target deeper inside Israel because that strike was of course not at the border but in the in the Lebanese Capital but of course now with the killing of isma Han in in ton that is that equation is has to be done completely new hisbah sees themselves as a part of the excess of resistance against Israel and with that it's of course close to Hamas that might influence now how um how hisbah is reacting if we learn anything about this we can see how everything is really interconnected here in this region and what kind of potential all this has for now a wider escalation do you think hania's death will now mean that we could see a stronger response from Hezbollah than we would have if it had just been uh this strike in Beirut yeah that's exactly what I'm saying I mean they have to put a new equation they will have to do something bigger than they originally said but we don't know when this is going to happen normally this can take days this can take weeks till they answer that hisbah is normally sinking way strategically and might it might take a while till we see a reation I'd like to turn now uh to talking about indirect negotiations that have been going on between Hamas and Israel for a ceasefire and for a return of the hostages um these were often taking place in Qatar uh we know that is um that is very much where we saw him him based for a lot of the time where Han was living now that he is out of the picture do you think these talks are effectively at a standstill I think we can expect that at least the short run Hamas will withdraw from these negotiations we can expect a harder line uh from u h from Hamas on the other side it might be open new pathes because if you look at Benyamin Netanyahu he was desperate to get some kind of success some kind of success he didn't get yet with all this military campaign in Gaza big parts of the Gaza Strip is is is destroyed but the declared goal of destroying Hamas is didn't of course happen now he can sell the killing of the political leader of Hamas of course as a success that might give him a way into to ending the military operation in the Gaza Strip the problem here is that he needs partially Hamas to do that because in order to do that he needs to get some kind of deal about the release of Hostage and that at least in the short run is right not very physic right now so you're saying that there needs to also be a deal done in order for there to be an offramp for Netanyahu to try and end the war it's not enough just to say look we've got the leader of Hamas and that's it now yeah at least if you want to the release of the hostages as part of the deal who are with Hamas of course you need a deal with Hamas and that's exactly the problem right now well thank you so much uh for your insights today that is a journalist Kareem Al goari in Beirut we very much appreciate your time as always thank you very much well Iran has now responded to the death of Han in a statement carried on Iranian State media president mud pesan said that Iran will quote defend its territorial Integrity dignity honor and pride and will make the terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly act reactions have also been coming in from other countries including from the United States speaking during a visit to the Philippines defense secretary Lloyd Austin said the US had no additional information on the assassination of hi Austin also insisted the US was trying to cool tensions in the region and that was always room for diplomacy while also reaffirming support for Israel's defense and we can get more now from journalist Kareem Al goari joining us from Beirut glad to have you back Kareem Can you tell us what you have heard what kind of reaction uh you've gathered there to to these two uh killings well it's basically here in Beirut everyone who is close to the Palestinian cause and that is a lot of people in Lebanon uh they are angry they are angry because this they say this was even if they're not Hamas supporters they say this was an extra Judiciary killing of one of the PO Palestinian political leaders so but of course you have especially anger in within the ranks of hisbah and also within the Palestinian camps here in Lebanon and on the other hand if you ask the other Lebanese there is a big worry what's going to happen now how this situation is escalating in how Lebanon might be might get involved in this now Kareem stay with us for just a moment we've talked about how this attack comes hours after another major development in the region with Israel saying it's killed a top Hezbollah commander in an air strike on a bayout suburb I'd like to take a closer look at this Hezbollah the pro-iran militia in Lebanon has confirmed that uh the commander was in the building at the time but they have not confirmed his fate it was a question of when not if Israel would retaliate after a projectile hit a soccer field in majal Shams in the Golan Heights and killed 12 children and teenagers Israel blamed Hezbollah and warned the militant group who would pay a heavy price Israel's response was a rare air strike on the outskirts of Beirut lebanon's Health Ministry said the attack killed at least one woman and two children and wounded [Applause] dozens the Israeli military says the strike was targeted and killed a top Hezbollah Commander fuad shukur Fu chukur was the right-and man to kasan asala bala's leader and his advisor in planning and directing attacks and and operations the United States says Shakur orchestrated the 1983 bombing of the US Marine Barracks in Beirut which killed 241 US military personnel and it put a bounty of $5 million on his head he's been one of the group's leading military figures since it was established by Iran's revolutionary guards more than four decades ago after the Israel Hamas war broke out on October 7 Shakur was accused by Israel of being behind men of the Drone and missile attacks that Hezbollah carried out against Israel if Israel's claim proves true Shakur will be the most senior Hezbollah Commander to be killed since 2016 when Mustafa baddin the group's military commander in Syria died in an explosion in Damascus the strikers threatened to escalate hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah at a time when tensions are already running hot the UN is urging Cal fearful that the region could would be on the brink of a wider War let's get back across to kareim Al goari in Beirut so if it turns out to prove true that Israel has in fact uh killed shukur what kind of response would you expect from Hezbollah yeah they they made clear that for sure in any case there will be a response the question is how the response will look like um normally you have kind of this Unwritten uh rules of engagements between isbah and Israeli Army a military Target for a military Target so in a way you could of course consider for sh a military Target as he was one of the big military commanders U of hisbah and you could have maybe expected that the answer of hisbah then is another military Target deeper inside Israel because that strike was of course not at the border but uh in the in the Lebanese Capital but of course now with the killing of is in inan that is that equation is has to be done completely new hisbah sees themselves as a part of the excess of resistance against Israel and with that is of course close to Hamas and that might influence now how um how hisbah is reacting if we learn anything about this we can see how everything is really interconnected here in this region and what kind of potential all this has for now a wider escalation do you think hania's death will now mean that we could see a stronger response from Hezbollah than we would have if it had just been uh this strike in Beirut yeah that's exactly what I'm saying I mean they have to put a new equation they will have to do something bigger than they originally said but we don't know when this is going to happen normally this can take days this can take weeks till the answer that hisbah is normally thinking way strategically and might it might take a while till we see a reaction I'd like to turn now uh to talking about indirect negotiations that have been going on between Hamas and Israel for a ceasefire and for a return of the hostages um these were often taking place in Qatar uh we know that is um that is very much where we saw him him based for a lot of the time where Hye was living now that he is out of the picture do you think these talks are effectively he stand still I think we can expect that at least the short run Hamas will withdraw from these negotiations we can expect a harder line uh from H from Hamas on the other side it might be open New Paths because if you look at Benyamin Netanyahu um he was desperate to get some kind of success some kind of success he didn't get yet with all this military campaign in Gaza big parts of the Gaza Strip is is is destroyed but the declared goal of destroying Hamas is didn't of course happen now he can sell the killing of the political leader of Hamas of course as a success that might give him a way into ending the military operation in the Gaza Strip the problem here is that he needs partially Hamas to do that because in order to do that he needs to get some kind of deal about the release of Hostage and death at least in the short run is right not very visible right now so you're saying that there needs to also be a deal done in order for there to be an offramp for Netanyahu to try and end the war it's not enough just to say look we've got the leader of Hamas and that's it now yeah at least if you want to the release of the hostages as part of the deal who are with Hamas of course you need to deal with Hamas and that's exactly the problem right now well thank you so much uh for your insights today that is a journalist Kareem El goari in bayut we very much appreciate your time as always and some for some more analysis here I would like to bring in Simon mabon professor of international politics at Lancaster university in the United Kingdom good morning thank you so much uh for taking the time to join us um I'd like to just start by asking you what you expect we could potentially see as a response uh from Hamas and from tan it's the million dooll question I guess my my instinct says that we'll see some pretty robust rhetoric from from a number of different actors across the middle east from Hamas from tan from hisbah and probably also from the houthis and perhaps also the Iraqi militias that are are supported by and have a close relationship with this quote unquote resistance axis I imagine there will be uh articulations of a firm and robust response that this will not go quote unquote unpunished and that there will be a strong response to this attack but then the the question then comes what does that response actually look like will there be a a a response that plays into this escalatory game that that many are fearing will happen and and I'm not convinced that we will see this dramatic escalation but it's not the sort of thing that can just be left without a response um we know that when the when the Israelis struck Iranian territory earlier this year there was a symbolic strike against Israel conducted by Iran but that was was done in such a way that prevented a wider escalation whilst also Saving Face so it's a very very difficult balance here and it is certainly a precarious and disconcerting moment indeed the concern for months has been that escalating attacks could spiral into a major war in the Middle East a much wider conflict in your view is it in anyone's interest here to see things escalate or are there interests in place that give you hope uh that that cooler heads will prevail very few people would benefit from a war very few States would benefit the devastation of conflict as we're seeing in Gaza is catastrophic we know that people people across the region in Israel in Gaza in Lebanon in Iran are the ones that are paying the most devastating price of any conflict that would take place so I would urge everyone to do whatever is possible to avoid conflict to avoid escalation and I'm confident that that people would see that that that leaders do not want an escalation now the problem is just because states do not want an escal it doesn't mean that that doesn't happen because of the complexities of the situation the sensitivities of it the perceived fears the perceived anger and worry about what the other is doing and this is this is the sort of thing that we've seen time and time again throughout history with States not necessarily wanting to go to war but finding themselves on a very slippery slope into Conflict by virtue of of circumstance rather than aspiration or desire a very ious moment in history here indeed um I'd like to to zoom in on the war in Gaza and ask you what you think the killing of hania could mean for Hamas for its operations and also for the course of the war going forward well for the course of the war it means very little because he was operating at a distance he was between gatar and turkey and obviously Iran now so on a day-to-day basis he wasn't n directly involved he wasn't involved in strategy he wasn't involved in planning he wasn't involved in the in the actions of those on the ground and and that had in some respects reduced his perceived legitimacy amongst the groups so in terms of the day-to-day it doesn't mean all that much but it's more about the symbolic dimensions of this the symbolic sense that a a senior political leader has been killed and that will undeniably prompt to respond resp the question is what type of response can Hamas and of enact given that they are already under the the boot of the IDF they are suffering they are struggling to to to survive in essence and the the people of Gaza are also in a devastating condition so whilst there may be a desire to respond to this and to take action the the practicalities the reality of it is is that there's very little that Hamas can do on its own indeed well thank you so much for taking the time to share your expertise with us that is Iran and Middle East expert Simon maon