Lecture Notes: Understanding the Conflict in Sudan

Introduction

• Focus on Sudan's current situation and historical context.
• Understanding reasons for conflicts: religious, ethnic, economic, and political differences.

Geography and History

• Sudan: Located below Egypt, with a coastline on the Red Sea.
• South Sudan: Gained independence on July 9th, 2011, due to prolonged civil war.
• Civil war initiated in the 1980s due to differences:
  • North dominated by Arab Muslims
  • South comprised mainly of black African Christians and animists.
  • Resulted in 2 million deaths and displacement of millions.

Comprehensive Peace Agreement (2005)

• Mediated by the UN, the USA, and African countries.
• South Sudan's independence in 2011.

Current Conflict in Sudan

• Location of Conflict: Mainly in Khartoum and nearby areas.
• Key Figures:
  • General Abidal Fateh Al Burhan: Sudanese army chief, de facto ruler.
  • General Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo: Leader of Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
• Nature of Conflict: Power struggle between Burhan and Dagalo.

Background on Sudan’s Political Leadership

• Omar al-Bashir's Regime (1989-2019):
  • Overthrew a democratic government, ruled by military force.
  • Abolished the prime minister’s position.
  • Oversaw the civil war and South Sudan’s independence.
• Burhan’s Rise:
  • Overthrew Bashir with Dagalo's help in 2019.
  • Formed Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) to appear democratic.

2021 Sudan Coup d'état

• Coup by military leaders Burhan and Dagalo against civilian political groups.
• Motivated by the impending transfer of power to civilians as per TSC agreement.

Current Situation and Dynamics

• Tensions between Burhan and Dagalo post-2021 coup.
• Dagalo’s Distrust:
  • Concern over Burhan reinstating Bashir’s allies.
  • Dagalo's roots in Darfur, often looked down upon by Sudanese elite.
• RSF vs. Sudan Armed Forces (SAF):
  • RSF’s base in populated areas; conflict with SAF escalating.

International and Regional Reactions

• Global Interests:
  • Western nations call for ceasefire; limited leverage due to Sudan's isolation.
  • Allegations of Russian involvement via Wagner Group, linked to RSF.
  • Russia’s interest in establishing a naval base.
• Regional Powers:
  • Saudi Arabia and UAE's historical support for RSF.
  • Egypt, Ethiopia, and Eritrea likely to support the conflict's victor.

Conclusion

• The conflict in Sudan is a complex mix of internal power struggles and external influences.
• Understanding the historical context is crucial to comprehending current events.