the latest Canadian job reports out now and it paints a very interesting picture of Canada's economy on one hand we're seeing job growth and yet unemployment is creeping higher so what is going on here I want to break that down find out what these numbers really mean so let's start off with uh what the data says first off Canada added 51,000 jobs in November that's a0 2% bump there full-time positions they led the way with a gain of 54,000 jobs while part-time employment dipped slightly now on the face of it that would sound like pretty good news we want to see those full-time positions but there's a Twist here the unemployment rate it actually climbed by 0.3 percentage points came in at 6.8% that's now the highest since January 2017 you know if we strip out those pandemic years a reasonable question here to ask is why is this happening there are more Canadians entering the job market actively looking for work and that pushes up the unemployment rate in fact the labor force participation rate it ticked up to 65.1% and that offset some recent declines now if we zoom in on who's gaining and who's losing jobs let's have a look at some winners first off core AED men so this is the contingent 25 to 54 years of age saw a big boost 45,000 new jobs that pushed their employment rate up to 86.5% now certain industries also stood out we saw wholesale and Retail trade 39,000 jobs added there construction saw a gain of 18,000 jobs professional scientific and Technical Services added 17,000 th000 jobs as well now when we flip over and look at the losing side of this it flips over to women who are aged 55 to 64 they weren't as fortunate they lost 20,000 jobs in the period that drops their unemployment rate down to 58.6% the manufacturing also took a hit 29,000 jobs lost there especially in Ontario transportation and warehousing was down 19,000 jobs this is likely tied to ongoing labor disputes now if we look at this from a regional perspective Alberta strong month gained 2 4,000 jobs Quebec was up 22,000 jobs Ontario though stagnated and saw its unemployment rate rise to 7.6% that's the highest since 2014 now again if we cut out those pandemic years so the big question here is what does this mean for policy because we've got the Bank of Canada coming up uh with their next decision on Wednesday so when we see unemployment edging up what effect or what influence will this have on the next decision well on one hand here we see the rising job numbers and that signals that there is some strength in the economy but when we look at it a little from a different perspective uh we have higher unemployment and that might make it look like conditions are actually softening a little bit so the bank when it makes its decision this coming Wednesday it'll also be looking at wages and the average hourly pay Rose 4.1% year over-year so let's just take a step back for a moment here when we look at these numbers it says to me the Canada's labor market is at a Crossroads here there is no doubt that the job creation is encouraging that's a good thing but the steady rise of unemployment since April 2023 now up 1.7 percentage points and that raises questions about how sustainable the growth is in other words are we entering a period of economic uncertainty right now or are what we seeing this last report just sort of a blip as the market overall recalibrates um also I did notice the youth unemployment rate that jumped to 13.9% up more than two percentage points from last year and look at that Trend since we came out of the pandemic years what does this say about young workers trying to get into the job market what is your employment story these days are you all good or are you part of that Rising Employment Number drop a comment below imagine for a moment that you are planning your future and you're balancing the need for growth with a desire for some steady cash flow maybe you're thinking about retiring early or funding your child's education 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unemployment which is now at 6.8% and this is bringing calls for some aggressive action now Nathan Johnson he is the assistant chief Economist at RBC and he had this to say about the bigger picture he says essentially it looks like inflation is back under control the economy is much softer and the trend has been continuing to soften and yet we still have a restrictive level of interest rates with the overnight rate still historically high that said though we can't just forget about the fact that we are weighing these risks with the Canadian dollar which has been weakening now at a 4-year low of about 70.8 cents USD another expert who follows this is Benjamin RIT as he is the managing director of Canadian rates at the Bank of Montreal and he's expecting a 50 basis point cut as well based on the latest job numbers but he doesn't necessarily agree with this he says while the move in the currency over the past number of months has been relatively orderly you run a risk of the currency really weakening at a much faster Pace that makes policy makers uncomfortable he goes on to say as the currency weakens especially in the winter months it will be detrimental to Canadians in general who have to pay higher prices for food and gasoline and other things that are imported and that's not a positive for Canadian Living standards now meanwhile we always seem to have more than one train of thought here and not everyone is on the same page Royce Mendes he is the head of macro strategy at De jardan and he's calling for 25 basis point cut and he's arguing that the sharp rise in unemployment last month was more because of the rise in participation and not in layoffs and he says the data is lukewarm but not bad specifically he says it's hardly convincing evidence that you need to absolutely cut rates by another 50 and just to put that in context two consecutive 50 basis point Cuts whether neither the Canadian nor the US economy is in freef Fall would be unprecedented so here we are we have mixed signals we have mounting risks the Bank of Canada is facing a pretty tough choice I would say in balancing the economic stimulus and at the same time avoiding any potential long-term Fallout I have a couple of Bank rated stories to finish things off with today if you're wondering how the big Banks fared last year Well bonuses might be a clue on average performance-based payouts jumped 12% added up to about 23.75 billion across the board you look at some banks like CIBC they really opened the wallet there they had a 19% increase rewarding strong profits while at Scotia Bank the other end of the spectrum the needle barely moved we saw a 4% hike there now what stands out to me is really how uneven the results are across the industry here some teams absolutely crushed it like the fixed income desks while Equity Traders it looks like they struggled a little bit when we look at Royal Bank and National Bank they both rewarded their teams 16% and 14% bonuses respectively that is thanks to strong Capital market performance there then we look at TD which has been on a wild ride for a lot of different reasons recently but they still managed the 10% increase in bonuses that's pretty solid considering the challenge they've been going through when we convert that into real dollars that's 4.48 billion so not bad when you add that all up now on a different note here still staying with the banking sector though Canadian Western Bank they were supposed to report their earnings last week they are now in the spotlight for the wrong reasons here they had to push back their earnings release because of a legal claim that's tied to their maximum Financial division the claim itself it involves $18 million in Damages and it alleges unethical Behavior by a sales agent now the bank says that this shouldn't affect their financials or their pending $5 billion sale to National Bank but as you can see the market is still trying to figure out exactly what's going on um on the news shares dropped over 5% on Friday but they're showing a pretty nice recovery today earnings for Canadian Western Bank are now expected by mid December I'll be watching to see how this all plays out we're third of the way through December but the news isn't stopping to come in so I will be back here on Wednesday with my next update as always thank you for watching and we'll see you in the next video