Transcript for:
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Every year there's a few players that we all look at and just go, I'm not overly interested. And actually, I go to all my league mates and I talk those players up all off season in hopes that they draft them. I will go out of my way to drop all kinds of stats and analytics on those players to my league mates. That don't mean a damn thing. I'm just hoping that I can plant a seed now that sprouts on draft day. It's one of the most important things you can do in fantasy football. Take advantage of those clueless league mates. What is going on, Headliner Nation? Hopefully everyone is doing well out there today. And another way that you can take advantage of those clueless league mates is by getting yourself a 2025 fantasy football draft guide. I'm talking player profiles, injury breakdowns, cheat sheets, tier rankings, offensive line rankings, and so much more. It's available right now at tfhdraftguide.com. There's links down below in the description. But maybe you want your draft guide for free. There's a way to do that as well. Head over to Underdog Fantasy or download the app. Create a new account using the referral code headliners when you do so. You then make your initial minimum deposit and enter a contest of your choice, whether a player pick them or a best ball draft. Once you do that, Underdog is going to cover the cost of your draft guide. But not just that, you're going to get a first time deposit bonus of up to $1,000 in bonus funds. Now, like I said, there's links to everything down below in the description if you do sign up on Underdog to get your free draft guide. Usually takes around 24 to 48 hours for us to get the report from Underdog and your draft guide sent out, but you will be taken care of. So, you know what to do. Leave your comments down below, hit the like button, and let's talk about a few players that I'm going to talk up to my league mates because I'm really not that interested in them here in 2025. And let's go ahead and start off with Bree Hall, running back of the New York Jets. Now, I am on record as a Bree Hall truther in the past, but I have done given up my seat on that bandwagon in 2025. We have a new coaching staff that has already come out and said that this backfield is going to be a committee this season. a coaching staff that's come over from Detroit, a team known for deploying and finding success with a twoback system. We've also seen Brilan Allen a lot more already this off season. Now, he may not ooze efficiency, but he possesses the skills to take touches away weekly from Bree Hall. So, that brings us to the offensive line next. Now, full disclosure, I think this offensive line is gonna be better than most people think. a Verge top 12 unit to start the season. But, and that is a huge butt, if any of their top guys go down, they have no immediate depth and it could get ugly quickly. But what I feel like is the biggest red flag is Justin Fields being the new Jets quarterback this season. A quarterback known for calling his own number and tucking it and running it himself. So, really, in reality, this is a three-way split backfield. Over 44 career starts, Justin Fields has had 418 rush attempts, including 76 carries in the red zone. And we've already seen him tuck it and run it here in the preseason. Which then takes us to this Jets team as a whole. Do we expect them to have a lot of second half leads where they can really focus on the running game late and rack up volume? No. It's the Jets. They always find a way to disappoint their fans and fantasy owners yearly. So that only leaves us Bree himself. And even though he's been able to stay on the field, his efficiency numbers have just been less than what he's capable of here as of late. It's almost to the point where he needs huge volume to make up for the lack of efficiency. But we just spent the last few minutes talking about all the things going against him. Yet he is being drafted as the RB13 despite finishing last year as the RB17. So let me get this straight. things got worse for him and he's supposed to improve that much. If he's going to be the RB13, he's going to need to have around 1,400 total yards and close to 10 touchdowns. Given the situation this year, that's a big ask as a third round pick. Now, there are a couple other running backs that I would prefer to have with similar ADP. Guys like Alvin Kamara. Yes, I know that offense is not going to be great. There's no good quarterback in New Orleans, but Alvin Kamara doesn't make his money between the tackles. He makes it catching the foosball. And with the quarterback play we have in New Orleans, I'm expecting a ton of checkdowns. We could see Alvin Kamara get close to 100 receptions this season. How about Amaran Hampton for the LA Chargers? He's looking at an increased role because Naji still out there looking like a pirate. He posted a picture the other day and the dude's eye is still closed. Omaran Hampton could see huge volume to start the season. and then Chuba Hubard as well. I get it. When you see the Carolina Panthers, you don't think fantasy football sexiness, but this offense is going to be much improved and he's going to have touchdown opportunities weekly. How about another running back, Brian Robinson Jr. of the Washington Commanders? And as much as I love Washington's offense this year, I just see this backfield as a potential headache each and every week. We know they have Austin Eckler and he isn't what he was a few years ago, but this young kid, Jakori Kroski Merritt, is quickly starting to turn heads in camp. He's basically a more explosive Brian Robinson. But just like Bree Hall earlier, Bro also has to worry about rushing touches going to his quarterback in Jaden Daniels. Daniels last season ran the ball 148 times, but then the team also went out this off seasonason and added another playmaker in Debo Samuel. just a bunch of different options which takes away the potential possible big volume going the way of Brian Robinson on the ground. But he needs that big volume. Over his first three seasons, he's averaged only 4.1 yards per attempt and last year only had 20 receptions for 159 yards and no receiving touchdowns through the air. That tells me he isn't involved in the passing game. And if he doesn't get huge volume on the ground, he isn't explosive enough to make up for it. He was outside the top 30 running backs in the NFL just last year in yards per touch and yards created per touch. He hasn't played a full season yet in his career and the offensive line may be one of the weakest spots of this Washington Commander team. But there are other players that I would rather have at a similar ADP. Even Tyrone Tracy at this point the New York Giants offense is going to be much improved. We've already seen that Cam Scataboo can't stay healthy in camp and Tyrone Tracy has cemented himself as the RB1 in this offense. Getting him at this point of the draft makes him a great bench stash. How about Roma Dunes in Chicago? I made a comparison last week to Roma Dunay and Mike Evans. Super similar play style. And while he may not rack up a ton of receptions, the guy has big play potential each and every week. Same with Evan Ingram, tight end now of the Denver Broncos. one of my favorite tight ends to draft here this season. And at this point of the draft where Brian Robinson is going, I would rather spend that pick on a guy like Evan Ingram. Let me get my running backs and my wide receivers early and then grab my mid round tight end right here. But we also have Debo Samuel sitting right here at similar ADP as well. His teammate now in Washington. And people will look at the last few years of Debo Samuel and just write him, they're just going to scratch him completely off their draft board. But at this point of the draft, when you're trying to take a little bit of risk in hopes that it pays off, we've seen Debo Samuels ceiling before, if he is anywhere near that, it's league winning. And even if he doesn't produce those types of league winning numbers, you're getting him so cheap, he's almost bust proof. But let's move on to a couple ball catchers now. Some wide receivers. First one up is AJ Brown, wide receiver of the Philadelphia Eagles. And I'm sure all of the Eagles fans will light me up in the comment section for this, but facts are facts. There are plenty of red flags here as of late. As of right now, he's the current wide receiver 10 and projected as a second round ADP. That is a hefty price tag to pay to have someone have the concerns that I have. First being the nagging injuries are starting to rack up. Every week you were refreshing your injury reports just praying that he was a full go in 2024. Then we have the issues with inconsistent targets. Even when healthy, Jaylen Herz spreads the ball around to guys like Devonte Smith, Dallas Goddard, and now a whole lot of Saquon Barkley. Sure, AJ Brown is going to have some monster games, but they are a little bit more few and far between than a lot of people want to admit. AJ Brown scored 45% of his seasonlong scoring in just four games last year, and that is no fluke. He scored 45% of his seasonl long scoring in just four games in 2023 as well. Maybe you want to go a little bit deeper. Okay. He also scored 42% of his seasonl long scoring in just four games of 2022. So you're talking about a player who's having some big time games, but 50% almost of his seasonlong scoring is coming in just a handful of games. Then we get to the Eagles runheavy approach. Philly loves to lean on their ground game, especially with Jaylen Herz rushing and Saquon Barkley's workload. That is going to cap AJ Brown's ceiling most weeks. No team in the NFL threw the ball less in 2024 than the Philadelphia Eagles. And they had 30 attempts less than the team with the second fewest attempts, the Baltimore Ravens. And let's not forget, they won the Super Bowl with that strategy. It's not like they're going to be quick to go out and change a whole lot. Owning AJ Brown means wide receiver one potential with wide receiver three floor games more often than not that could end up burning you. It's a headache weekly. The players that I would rather have at similar ADP, the first one is Drake London. There's a lot less competition for targets in Atlanta for Drake London with Darnell Mooney currently banged up and we saw what he was capable of the end of 2024 with Michael Penn. How about Chase Brown? Last year's Cinderella running back. Now, he's a little bit more expensive in 2025, but in a backfield that he should just absolutely own, he's in line for another huge year. Kairen Williams, he just got paid. I've been banging that drum all off season long, and that's a ton of volume for Kairen Williams. How about Bucky Irving? Every piece of data and analytics that you can look at tells you that Bucky Irving is about to have a huge year. Now, he's in a stacked offense for sure with guys like Mike Evans and newly drafted Amecha Ibuka. Chris Godwin should be back at some point. How about Kade Uton? A lot of touchdown chances in Tampa Bay this season. And then lastly, Lad Manki. Now, he's dropping down draft boards a little bit ever since the Chargers went out and signed Keenan Allen. Now, yes, in my opinion, Lad Mani is better than Keenan Allen at this point of his career, but both of these guys have thrived in the slot in LA. How does that look in 2025? We really don't know for sure. That's why he's dropped down the draft board a little bit, but Lad Makanki still should see over 100 plus targets. How about another wide receiver in Jaylen Wadd of the Miami Dolphins. Now, this one pains me because he is one of my favorite players to watch, but man, he is such a headache. He has only played one full season in his career, and he's tied to a quarterback in Tua Tonga Aloa that we all know is an injury risk. Aside from one season in 2022, Jaylen Wadd has only averaged 78 catches for 924 yards and six touchdowns a season. But the team also added some other weapons this off seasonason. Guys like Nick Westbrook Aime over from Tennessee. That guy had nine touchdowns just last year. They also added Darren Waller who joined the team coming out of retirement. But let's also not undervalue secondyear wide receiver Malik Washington who is capable of being the safety valve this season in the slot for Tua. Now once again Wadd is going to be so reliant on big plays in order to be startable in fantasy football. and those big plays just haven't been there as much. Now, a lot of people will see the preseason injury type news surrounding Tyreek Hill, and some may end up reaching for Wadd because of it, but personally, he's just not a player I want to be let down by again this year. Other guys with similar ADP that I would have have to be Calvin Ridley with his upgrade at quarterback and Cam Ward, he's in line for huge volume this year. How about grabbing your mid round quarterback right here in Bo Nicks? Bo Knicks had a sensational rookie year. And what did they do? They gave him an upgraded run game and a tight end that can catch passes in the red zone. And then we also have Jerry Judy as well. There aren't a lot of weapons in Cleveland when it comes to the passing game. And Jerry Judy should easily rack up 125 plus targets this season and would be so much safer than Jaylen Wadd. But now let's move on to a couple tight ends, the football kind. The first one, Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs. And I feel bad for all the people that are going to go back and look at his 2024 target number and just try to justify him being a discount at the tight end six this season. This is why it's important to look beyond just the surface stats because yes, 133 targets is elite level usage for a tight end. But what led to that volume is what's important to pay attention to. Rashe Rice missed games. Hollywood Brown missed games. Guju missed games. At times, Kansas City didn't have a choice but to throw the ball to Travis Kelce. But now, as we head into 2025, Kansas City's going to have Hollywood Brown. They're going to have Xavier Worthy, Ju Guu Smith, Shuster, and as of right now, Rasheed Rice for most of the season. Now, do you remember what Travis Kelce was doing when all of the pass catchers were healthy in 2024? Kelsey had a combined eight catches for 69 total yards over the first three games of the season. But even despite Kelsey getting more looks due to injuries, he still had a career low in yards and touchdowns since becoming the starter in 2014. He also saw career lows in yards per reception and yards per target. For his career, he was averaging over 12 yards per reception. Last year, only 8.5 yards per reception. In fact, last year was the third straight year that Kelsey saw a drop in production. He's going to turn 36 this October. The plan in 2024 is going to happen in 2025. They want to lower his usage throughout the season and then have him be 100% healthy for another postseason run. There are other players with similar ADP that I would rather have. Guys like George Pickkins. Pickins finally gets away from horrible quarterback play and Arthur Smith. We've never seen his ceiling. We may see it in Dallas this year. How about your mid-round quarterback Baker Mayfield and a stacked offense in Tampa Bay? Calvin Ridley, we already talked about Travis Hunter. We're seeing him a lot more on offense than defense here this off season. Does that continue into the 2025 regular season? Because if it does, he could definitely outproduce his ADP. But at the time that Travis Kelce is going, there are a couple other tight ends I would rather wait for and get a little bit later. The first one, we've already talked about him. It's Evan Ingram of the Denver Broncos, one of my must-have tight ends here this year. And then secondly, David Injoku of the Cleveland Browns. Now, as of right now, Joe Flacco is in line to be the week one starter. We've seen Flaco and Injoku before in the past in Cleveland, and they absolutely killed it. Now, even if at some point Flaco gets sat down for one of the younger guys, like we mentioned earlier with Jerry Judy, there's not a whole lot of options in Cleveland. and David and Jooku, a big play tight end that we've seen really excel when it comes to yards after the catch, could be a great tight end for you in the mid rounds. Now, lastly, it's Tucker Craft, tight end of the Green Bay Packers, and he really stepped up in 2024, finishing as the tight end nine overall. And full disclosure, if he was on a lot of other teams, he would still be a tight end that I would be going after. But I think we all saw last year that trying to predict the Green Bay passing game production is like advanced rocket science. Is it going to be Romeo Dopps? Is it going to be Jaden Reed, Dantavian Wixs, or newly drafted firstround wide receiver Matthew Golden? Or is it just going to be a whole lot of Josh Jacobs on the ground? We also know that Jordan Love has continued to rack up minor nagging injuries. And when backup quarterback Malik Willis comes into the game, the passing game takes a hit. I personally just do not want to play weekly whack-a-ole in the Green Bay offense. I can't afford to lose any more hair. Now, when we look at the ADP of Tucker Craft, there are some guys around him that I would much rather have. Amecha Ibuka, of course, is on the top of this list. I want him on almost every single one of my fantasy football teams. How about Tank Bsby? I know, not a sexy name, but at this point of your fantasy draft, to get a running back that's going to have a week one role at this level definitely provides some value on the bench and then JK Dobbins for the exact same reason. Sure, he may get injured. He may not make it the full season. But did you know he was one of the most fantasy efficient running backs just last year when he was on the field, and he averaged over 13 fantasy points per game. He may not be somebody that you can utilize the entire season, but if he starts hot, you can trade him off for a different piece. But just like when we discussed Travis Kelce, there are a few other tight ends that I would rather even wait for past Tucker Craft. Guys like Jake Ferguson. With so much defensive attention going the way of George Pickkins and Sidi Lamb, we could see Jake Ferguson rack up a ton of receptions this year. How about Dalton Concincaid? He struggled with injuries last year, but now he's super cheap in 2025. And when you look at efficiency numbers, he was one of the most efficient tight ends in football. So that tells me if he can get volume, we're going to see the production. And then lastly, no, this isn't a joke. It's Kyle Pittz. Did you know that Kyle Pittz was only 100 yards and one touchdown away? From being a top 12 tight end in 2024, I know the guy isn't great, but for where he's going in drafts, he has outproduced that number in almost every season of his career despite not playing well. So, like I always say, don't ignore red flags on players. Take these guys name value and sell it to your league mates. Because if they're drafting these players, you're going to be like Thanos acquiring the mid round Infinity Stones that's going to absolutely dominate your league. [Music]