Overview
A Ukrainian F-16 likely shot down a Russian SU-35 over Kursk on June 7th, 2025—a major milestone in modern aerial combat. The incident's details, possible aircraft and missile involvement, and tactical implications for both sides are analyzed.
Incident Summary
- Ukrainian Air Force claimed an SU-35 shootdown over the Kursk region, about 16 km inside Russian territory.
- Both The Moscow Times and Kyiv Post reported on the incident; initial social media posts suggested an F-16 with an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile was involved.
- The Russian pilot reportedly ejected and survived.
Possible Platforms and Missiles
- F-16s: Ukraine operates upgraded F-16s with advanced radars and Link 16 data-sharing, allowing real-time targeting from platforms like the Swedish Saab 340 AEW.
- AIM-120 AMRAAM: A long-range, fire-and-forget missile likely used from the F-16, ideal for beyond-visual-range engagements.
- SU-35: Russian 4.5-generation air-superiority fighter with long-range radar and missiles, but potentially outclassed by the combined F-16/Saab 340 data advantage.
- Patriot Missile System: Mobile US-made air defense with possible range overlap; less likely based on damage patterns.
- Mirage 2000: Recently arrived in Ukraine, less likely due to shorter missile range and less integration with Saab AEW.
Technical and Tactical Analysis
- F-16's integration with Saab 340’s AEW allows stealthy missile launches using shared targeting data, increasing kill probability.
- SU-35’s reliance on ground-based radar and slower data relay puts it at a disadvantage against NATO-style data fusion.
- Wreckage suggests fragmentation damage consistent with an AMRAAM, less so with a Patriot PAC-3’s impact.
- The scenario most likely involved the F-16 launching an AIM-120, guided or cued by the Saab 340, with the SU-35 unaware of the threat until too late.
Likelihood Assessments
- F-16 involvement assessed at 60–70% likelihood due to radar, missile range, and integration advantages.
- Patriot missile involvement estimated at 30–40%, possible with a forward-deployed battery but less likely based on impact evidence.
- Mirage 2000 involvement regarded as unlikely (10–20%) due to weapon range limitations and later theater integration.
Implications and Next Steps
- The incident demonstrates Ukraine's growing capability to contest Russian airspace with modern technology and tactics.
- Increased F-16 deliveries, more Saab AEW support, and longer-range missiles could further shift the aerial balance.
- Russia may need to adapt tactics in response to Ukraine’s improved air combat integration.
Questions / Follow-Ups
- Unconfirmed which platform definitively downed the SU-35; further official confirmation awaited.
- Ongoing discussion on the effectiveness of Link 16 and western AEW platforms in the Ukraine conflict.
- Potential for future changes in Russian operational patterns in response to new Ukrainian capabilities.