Hey everyone, welcome to the Investor Bet AFL round seven betting trend preview show. Here we're going to look at all the nine games coming up this weekend, break down the odds and break down the betting trends between these two sides. We'll look at their past matchup, who's been winning, who's been covering, what the odds were, have their games been going over or under the total, and also their recent trends so far this season on Thursday night. Thankfully, both these sides won last week because that's definitely made this more interesting match than it was looking like it was going to be before last weekend. But we have Melbourne as favorites against Richmond 27 minus 23 and a half point favorites. Both these sides coming off wins. Melbourne having their best game of the year. Broke their five-game losing streak. Got their first win beating Freeman 107 to 97. That was also the first time Melbourne covered the spread this season. And then Richmond broke their four-game losing streak with a win over the Gold Coast Suns who are undefeated going into that matchup, winning 80 points to 69. Melbourne have a very good record against Richmond. They've won the last five and covered the past two. Last season they just had the one meeting. Melbourne won 85 to 42 as a16 favorites. Covered the minus 31 a half there as well. In round 2023, Melbourne won 130 to 98 as 9 12 point favorites. So, been fairly dominant the past few seasons over Richmond. Expect Melbourne to win this game, but I don't think there's a great deal between the two sides. When you purely look at the stats, there's very little between the two of them. Both rank in the bottom three in terms of attack and the bottom four in terms of defense. So, very little between the two sides. Wouldn't be surprised if Richmond play up to what they're capable of, which we saw them do last week against Gold Coast and they bring that similar form. wouldn't be surprised if this is a 10 to 15 point game either way, but I'd be looking at like your Melbourne 1 to39 as probably the best betting option in this matchup. With the total at 175 and a half, I do think that is fairly high for these two teams who both struggle to score. The concern obviously is Melbourne's attack clicked last week. They basically doubled their average point score and it's tricky to know how they'll come through that whether they can replicate that once again. Even with that 107 points last week, they're still averaging 68 on the season. Richmond averaging slightly more at 70. But I think for this game to go, Melbourne's going to have to play very well in attack and really break down this Richmond defense. The thing is is like I can understand why this total is high and higher than you'd expect it to be just due to the fact both these sides are conceding over 100 points per game on average. If like they still they continue to not play defense, then it won't be that hard to get to that number. So, I'm a little bit undecided on the total. Do think it's slightly high, but if it is to go under, it's only going to go just under. I can't see it being significantly under the way these two teams defend. Then the first game on Friday, so in the afternoon, Collingwood against Essin. Collingwood A120 favorites minus 28 and a half. They've won four of the past six against Essenden. They come into this matchup on a five-game winning streak comfortably taking care of the Brisbane Lions. It's Gabble last week 105 to 53. They've covered the spread in their past three games and it's hard to see them losing this game the way they're playing against Essin at the moment, especially considering Esen's having to make the trip back from Perth. Come into this on a 7-day turnaround where Collingwood get an 8-day turnaround. So, they get an extra day's rest as well. Now you might think like Collingwood's coming back from Brisbane. What's is there a great deal of difference coming back from Perth? Generally the trip back from Perth affects teams more than traveling along the east coast. So that's why I am thinking that Collingwood defensively much much better only conceding 66 points a game on average. And it's even lower if you take out that first game of the season where the GWS Giants put 104 on them. Across their past five games that they've won, they're only conceding 58 on average. the fact they really couldn't get their attack going last week against West Coast and they still are ranking in the bottom six in terms of points scored this season. I can't see them kicking a winning score against this Collingwood defense. But it is the Anzac Day match. Both teams get up for it, but Collingwood will win this game. I'm pretty confident. The past two head-to-head have gone over the total, but three of the past five have gone under. The total for this match is 168 and a half currently. Do think that is slightly lower. I have it at 171 as a fair total. Collingwood this season have been an underside four of their six games going under and Essen their last three going under and the bookmakers have just pretty much put up the same total as their past two games or both 167 and a half. Don't really have a huge opinion on that number. I think it is fairly there's only a couple of points difference that I would make it but both these sides having trends favoring the under. Next game which is on the Friday night we have Freemand back at home against Adelaide. Freeman have had their last couple of games on the road. So getting back at home here. Their small favorites minus 3 half dollar 78 and the total for this matchup $178 and a half. Freeman have a great record against Crows. They've won six of the past seven and that's a very good record against sides that you generally consider to be fairly evenly matched. So far this season, Adelaide has been the better attacking side and the slightly better defensive side. So a lot of this is being played into that homefield advantage for Frio. Last time they met was round three last season at Opa Stadium. Freeman were minus 7 and a half. Adelaide couldn't score in that game. 34 points total potentially. Has Adelaide's attack dropped off or they just didn't need to do much against GWS last week with just the 52 points being scored. Their lowest number of the season. I think they'll get their attack back rolling this week against Freeman who did concede 107 points against one of the worst attacking sides we've seen up to that point in Melbourne. Like Adelaide as an underdog here. However, find it tricky to back them with Free Man's record against them. Think this is a triette kind of game either side 1 to 24. I think it'll be close. Two goals either way. Don't think there's much between these two sides. The past seven meetings have all been decided by 1 to 39 points. I think we'll see something similar here. Eight of the past 12 head-to-head have gone under the total points line. We do have sides capable of scoring here, especially Adelaide who are averaging almost 110 points a game, but two of their past three have gone under the total this season. Freeman have had three of their past four go at 178 and a half be leaning towards the over. I just don't love the fact that this matchup has a history of going under and being low scoring. I don't want to confidently back the over in this matchup at this stage. Onto Saturday now we have St. Coda against the Brisbane Lions. Both sides coming off losses. Brisbane though favorites $147 minus 13 and a half. They've won the last six against St. Kilda and the away team has covered eight of the last nine. So it's a good spot here for Brisbane traveling down to Melbourne for this game. They won their first five were terrible last week against Collingwood. We'll get the form reference the day prior on how Colling would go against Essin, but I expect Brisbane to be winning this game. They've only covered the spread once this season, which was a couple of weeks ago against the Western Bulldogs. The other team has covered every other game against them, which is interesting. And the Lions have been overvalued a little bit to kick off the season. You often see that with the Premier from last year. For St. Kilda, they've lost their past two against the Bulldogs and GWS. And it doesn't get any easier for them this week. They're now 3-3 on the season. Still have been a big oversight this season with five of their six games going over. I like Brisbane to win this game from a total perspective at 180 and a half. That's definitely a high total for this matchup. I make a fair total 179 and a half. So it is pretty spot on. But 180 for Saints Brisbane game definitely feels high when we look at their previous the last matchup which was at this venue last season was only 166 and a half. Brisbane scored 124 points themselves. They scored 126 in the game prior to that. So they scored a combined 250 points in the two games against the Saints last season. would slightly lean towards the over in this matchup. Brisbane did concede over 100 last week against Collingwood. Stanca aren't great attacking, but they're not bad either. So, I still think they can find 80 to 85 points in this game against a Brisbane defense that is conceding 85 points. And the Lions think we'll get close, if not over the 100 points in this matchup against the same side that's conceding just under 100 points so far. and is coming off 127 and 110 points conceded the past two weeks. So like the Lions and lean towards it being highscoring even though this matchup has a history of going under. We know the Brisbane Lions have had no issues scoring and the road team has a good setup there. Then we have Port Adelaide verse North Melbourne. Port big favorites here $1.113 minus 35 and a half. They've won 10 of the past 11 against North Melbourne covered the past five. They've also won the past five by at least 52 points. So the recent matches between these sides going back to 2020 haven't been a contest at all. And we've also seen five of the past six headto-head go over the total. Last game didn't go over though. Went under the 178 12 with North Melbourne just scoring 48 points. I think Port are going to be hard to stop here. Backto-back wins against Sydney and Hawthorne in the past two weeks. And defensively they'll be able to limit North Melbourne here into around that 80 point score. But I can't see North kicking much at 85. And then with Port Adelaide, like if they really switch on here, if they can get that 120, 130 points. North Melbourne, there has to be an emphasis on defense. They've conceded 113 or more in five of their six games so far this season. Teams are having no issues scoring against them. They're averaging 117 points conceded. and Port Adelaide. Whilst they're not the best attacking side, they'll get plenty of chances to score in this game, especially with North Melbourne being on the road. This will be North third trip over to Adelaide this season. The only times they've left Melbourne have all been to South Australia. But Port Adelaide, I think this one's pretty simple. They'll win comfortably. Probably covered the spread at 35 and a half. And I think they'll be scoring around 120 points. I think anything under 110 is probably like a bit of a failure attacking performance. the way they're going so far for North Melbourne. Then we have GWS verse the Western Bulldogs. GWS favorites here $152 minus 11 and a half at home. The Western Bulldogs have a great record in this matchup though. They've won seven of the past eight. They covered both meetings last season. Bulldogs winning in round 248 to 61 and also in round 10 in Sydney 70 to 43. These sides come into this game firstly for GWS. They're coming in off a loss against Adelaide. So, back at home after two weeks playing down in South Australia. They're 4-2 on the season. So, still well positioned overall and very poor attacking performance. Like they scored 132 and 110 in their two games prior, but now dropped down to 34 last week. I think they bounced back at home against a Bulldog side that is ranking in the bottom and half of the competition in majority of metrics. Bulldogs also give up plenty of disposals to the opposition. So it wouldn't be surprised to see some GWS players rack up some big disposals in this game. And for the Bulldogs, they're coming off a big win last week, 127 to 56 against St. Kilda. Big win. That was their biggest win of the season so far. They're now 3-3. So both teams like very similar position. Don't think there's a great deal between them. Do think GWS deserves to be favorite at home, but definitely give the Bulldogs a really good chance as the underdog here. I think the value lies with them at around that $250 mark. They looked a lot better last week with Bontipelli back in the side. I think they keep this close. We could also look at a try bet in this game either side 1 to 24 I think is a good option. And also disposal markets there with GWS. The total at 169 12. Four of the past five headto-head have gone under. Bulldogs though last three games this season have gone over. GWS's last game was very low scoring, but the two games prior went over and they had no issues scoring in those. At 169 and half, I'd be leaning towards the over in this matchup as both sides do have points in them and defensively like neither one has been super strong so far this season. They're both ranking in the bottom half of the competition in points conceded. Then first game on Sunday, the Gold Coast Suns at home against the Swans. Gold Coast $154 10 12 point favorites. Sydney have won and covered the past three verse Gold Coast and they've also won four of the last five at the Gold Coast covering three of those five games. Gold Coast were poor last week against the Richmond Tigers losing that game when they are very short. They're only a$16 dollar 7 to win that game. So disappointing performance. They get the chance to bounce back but it's not going to be easy for them. They get back at home here for just the second time this season. So 4-1 overall. This would be a really good game if they were able to grab a win here. put them at 5 and1 overall in the year and only having played two games at home. They're averaging 111 points. Obviously, that dropped down was just 69 last week, but this is still clearly better than Swans who ranked 15th with 83 points per game. And Gold Coast defensively are putting up better numbers so far this season. For the Swans coming into this matchup, four of their last five have gone under. They've only won two games from their six so far, beating Freeman and North Melbourne. Highly impressive losing to Collingwood and Port Adelaide the past couple of weeks. I think Gold Coast actually will win this game at home but don't think they're deserving $154 in my opinion is a little bit too short. So once again I think the value slightly lies with Sydney but I think Gold Coast will get over line but whether they're are back price this game's not until Sunday. So it's time to see some odds movement until then. But if Gold Coast were around the$180 mark they'd definitely be a bet. But at $154 for me they're just a little bit too short as it currently stands. But Sydney just definitely not at their best this season. Struggling to score points where they can keep up with the Suns up at People First Stadium. I'm not sure that they're going to be able to do that. 175 and a half is the total line for this game. As I said, Sydney games have been going under in recent times. But for me, with the Gold Coast scoring, if they can bring their attacking game, this game can go 175 and a half. Don't think the final score will be too far away from that. So, I'd be leaning towards the over. Then we have Carlton vers Jalong. Jalong favorites here. $152 minus 11 12 and the total is 174 12. Carlton have won and covered two of the last three against Jalong. So they're well positioned coming to this back-to-back wins 153 last week against North Melbourne 121 the week prior against West Coast. Dramatic improvement in their attacking performance. Now whether they can do that against the Cats who ranked five defensively they have been playing two of the worst defensive sides. Both of them ranking in the bottom three in terms of point conceded North Melbourne and West Coast. So this is a much tougher challenge. I think Jalong will win this game. I think they'll get over the line, but don't think it'll be a big margin. So be looking at Jalong 9 1-39 as potential bets in this game. Carlton rarely get blown out. They have a good record against Jalong as well. Even the game they lost early last season was only by 13 points. Their confidence should be up. Carlton's confidence was shot during those first four weeks of the season, but it's definitely back the way they're playing right now. They've led at halftime in every single game, so should be in a position for this game to be close. Jalon may have a little bit of a let down. They put a lot into that game to get over the line against the Hawks on Monday. Fairly quick turnaround for them in comparison to Carlson who have a 9-day turnaround whereas Jalong only have a 6-day turnaround coming into this game. So that also favors Carlton in terms of keeping this game close. And with the total at 174 and a half, the past three head-to-head have gone over the total. And also eight of the past 11 head-to-head have gone over. I have a fair total for this game at 176. So I think the total line is pretty much spot on. Last week was Carlson's first game to go over the total for Jalong. Three of the last four have gone under. And then final game of the round, Hawthorne vers West Coast. Hawthorne big favorites here at 03 - 56 12. Hall have won the past three vers. This is an important game for them to win. Since they're by they've lost their two games against Port and Jalong. They get West Coast this week, Richmond the week after and then Melbourne the next three. They can put together three straight wins here. Get to seven and two on the season and be really well positioned. It starts here. They're at home. They'll win this game, win it comfortably. Won't be surprised for them to really put the foot down and run out big winners in this matchup for West Coast. They yet to win a game this season. They're 0 and six. They've haven't covered the spread in three of their last four. Last week was at least close and they didn't concede as many points, but I think they'll struggle to stop this Hawk side, especially when they get rolling, which they definitely can do. This game will be at Marvel. So, not as good as the MCG in terms of how Hawthorne play, but I don't think it's going to matter too much. Hawthorne will get over line, win comfortably at 180 and a half for the total. It'll really just come down to how many points Hawthorne score. If their attack is on, we could see this go over. I prefer the team total though for Hawthorne as opposed to the full game over. In terms of the full game over, I'd be more so leaning towards the under. Three of the past four headto-head have gone under. This total is much higher than their previous meetings. And also this season, West Coast, their last two having gone under and Hawthorne three, three of their last four have gone under. So the recent trends favor the under. But Hawthorne to run out big winners. Also, you could look at some disposal markets. Conor Nash likely to be out, so that will boost some numbers there for the other Hawthorne midfielders. That's how I'm looking at betting this round of the AFL. These are my early thoughts. Later in the week, I finalize my exact selections and I post them in the AFL best bets membership. That's where I post all my bets right throughout the season. So, if you want to follow along, the link to that is in the description. And you also get access to all the AFL bet finder tools which I've built over the last 10 years to study the games, do your research, actually use statistics to make smart betting decisions that result in profit as opposed to just random bets. Whether you're betting sides, totals, player props like disposals, goal scorers, everything you need to make betting decisions and good betting decisions and informed betting decisions is all included in the bet finder. So definitely check it out. Thanks guys for watching. Have a great weekend and I'll see you in the next