Hi everyone. Welcome to today's video. On today's video, I'm going to speak about when the markets are going to crash. Now, this is not a prediction video. I'm going to show you macro data and going to explain it to you systematically why the markets might take a while to crash from this point and why there is so much fuss being created. This is an important video for two reasons. Number one is that you might be sitting on a lot of profits.. You have made like 30% profits, all that stuff. Should or I book some profits. This is question one. Question two is that you might be sitting on a lot of IDle money. Idle money means you're just not able to understand where to put new money. This is a challenge that you might be facing. So this video will help you give some resolution to these two points. I might do some stock-specific commentary also. Now, the reason for making this video is very simple. I run a community called as Wisdom Hatch. Now, this is India's biggest community of investors right now. Every day, I keep on getting the question, Akshat, you know what? There is an economist called as Harry Dent.. That market is going to correct badly. Even like, 2008, recession,. And 98% crash, InVIDIA, and 92% drop, Nasdaq. So it's the bubble of all bubbles have been formed, all this stuff. So it's okay. So, so, so, so, so, sophisticated investors pick up points of Mr. Warren Buffet, and this is what Mr. Warren Buffet is doing, that Mr. Buffet is sitting on record cash. He has sold some of his positions on Apple, and he's sitting on cash pile of nearing $200 billion. Okay, so just the back in problem, problem. Nvidia and Warren Buffett are holding cash right now. Now, if you read these type of headlines, you will panic, you will sell your stocks, you will go away, and that might not be very intelligent. Now, why am I saying it. For this, you need to take a look at this nifty chart, and it's called de facto samajana. What is the meaning of de facto? De facto means practically samajna, this point. This is an important radical point that I'm making. Many of you might not agree with it, but this is the beauty of investing, that if you see logic in things that other people are not seeing, then chances of you making more money is much higher. If you actually take a look from this year, this is year 2000, roughly., one could argue that markets have been in a bull run. Now, what is the meaning? Technical meaning of bull run? Bull run simply means that the markets have given a breakout of above 20 %. This is how we define bull run. And bear run means, from its top by more than 20 %. Now, this technical definition, because there are times during this phase when markets have gone down 40, 50 %,. This was the COVID crash, 40, 50 %. Here, 66 %. Here, 40 odd, 50 odd %. Here, 20 odd % plus. So all these phases Second is, yes, markets have gone down in phase one, two, and three. But again, if you zoom out and take a look at this entire chart,. Now, the point that I'm trying to make is that see, there are two set of audiences. The first set of Second is that we will keep on timing the market.. Second is that people who will de facto understand this chart, understand the reason why there has been somewhat of a secular bull run. In the last 25 odd year, market has not really gone down. There have never been a phase of five years or more where you put in some money, even in bulk, and lost that money, so to say. So that has not been the case. Please remember this. This is a second more important point. The conclusion being that at this juncture, you might be again taking a look at this chart, that market is at an all-time high.. See, the The chances are that you might lose more money by waiting for a market correction. Then you will lose money, at least on a five-year basis, if you just simply choose to invest right now. Now, this is not a push that you should or shouldn't because that comes out at your portfolio construction stage, which I'll not be able to comment, but I'm just trying to show you some useful picture here. So this is literally point number one. Now let me explain four or five more points. And what I will do is that I will just quickly help you understand the history of market crashes. So this is a very good chart, and this will help you understand and see this picture more. So again, let's go back to this phase, this entire phase. Now this is, one could argue, one of the best performing asset classes in the last how many years. In the US, this has been performing since 1950. So this is absolute crazy. Yes, there was this phase, this was a substantial sideways phase. This was the 1960s to 1980s. But in the 1980s, there has never been a phase where people have lost money in US stock market by investing. Now, India is a long history in India of the stock market, so I can't do this analysis. But there is a very strong correlation between US's stock market and India's stock market. That is not a US market. It is in US. It is in India as well. India is somewhat contingent on US dollar. Now, almost 60 to 80%, depending on how you are seeing it, almost that level of world trade happens in US dollar denomination. So there is a very, very strong correlation between the US Stock Market and India's stock market. The first point of note down, that the stock market has become a rocket for last how many years, at least for the last 40 years. Now, if this is the singular bet that you're taking. I'm like 30 years old right now. Let me paint a picture for 40, 50 years. Then what should I really think about? And how should I process this information? Because I see so much gloom and gloom. What data points should I look at? See, there are two levels of information that you need to see. Number one, whenever you are reading this type of news, that Warren Buffett has sold his portfolio, this, that stuff, at least go and check what he is actually doing. This is his overall portfolio and overall AUM. Aum means that how big was his portfolio as per different quarters. 2022, the data we're looking at, you are sitting on $363 billion.. That's the simple point. Now, this is point one. But people are creating That's not necessary panic. People just process that in a very irrational way. That what exactly is it that Mr. Warren Buffett is doing? So he has something called as cash positions, and he has something called as AUM, which I just showed you. His AUM has barely shrunk by 5, 7% from its peak in 2022. He is building up this cash position. There is nothing wrong. So what he is doing is that he is building something called as Opportunity Money. Opportunity. Now, this is very important in order to explore opportunities. Now, what is the meaning of exploring opportunities? For example, here's a post that I had done on Tarsons. Now, Tarsons started to give a run up. It became like a rocket. In a day, it gave very good run-up. Similarly, I had posted about this, about DeltaCorp, and in one day, it gave very good run-up. These were all opportunities. These type of opportunities keep on coming out in the market. If you have cash sitting on the sidelines, you can always deploy this cash into these type of opportunities and make some quick gains. So this is the first utility of having a cash portfolio. What people confuse is people confused, you know what, Warren Buffett, I'm not in a stock market portfolio. Aum, he has sold and he's out of the market so much money, and he has converted all that money into cash. He's not doing that. This is the advance point that you need to understand. And in order to understand all these things, you have to educate yourself about the stock market. I do run courses in case you are a beginner, in case you are an intermediate player, you will benefit a lot by joining those courses. In case you guys are interested, I'm putting the links in the description box. Do definitely check it out. The third key point that I'm making here is called as Reinvestment Risk. Meaning of Reinvestment Risk. You are sitting on roughly 40% gains and you are thinking, I will pull out my profits. So you book 40% profits or 40-lack profit. Great. Awesome. Congratulations. What will you do with this money? Now you'll say, Okay, fine. I have these three, four options. Number one is that I can do FDs. Number two, I can go to real estate and I can get in loans. I will go and buy debt. Debt means that I will go and invest in bonds. Number 4, I will go and buy gold. Or number 5, I will go and buy BTC or Bitcoin, something like this. Now, what is the issue here? If we look at these reinvestment options in India, what is it that you have to think? Number 1 point is that if you are actually going to FDs in 2024, what is happening with FDs? The inflation in the economy is like this. Fd rates have barely grown like this. Now, you can keep on arguing with me, you know what, WPI inflation, CPI inflation, the 5, 6% is that stuff. And the FD rates are giving me 7, 7. 5%. How you speak about your segmental inflation. Segmental inflation is the inflation that you deal with at your level. For example, if you're living in Delhi, Mumbai, Gurgao, you are paying like 20, 20% rise in your kid's school fee. Segmental inflation for you is not like 4, 5%, it is much higher.. It's not going to go much. I'm not dissing on FDs. Fds serve a purpose. But to grow your wealth, they are not serving a purpose. Second key point, you will go to real estate. Now, I'm a proponent of real estate. I love buying real estate. But the real estate buying should make sense if you are able to scout very good properties. And real estate is. Technically, if you are a white money person, how much long term capital gains will you pay here? Well, you will pay 20% long term capital gains on real estate, which is absolute crazy. In equity, it's only 10%. So you have 40,000, here, real estate, it does not make much sense. What about debt? There used to be a inverse cycle between debt and equity. Like equity, It used to come to equities. So one could argue that debt used to act as a hedge against equities. Now that relationship is completely broken. Now, why has it been broken? So for that, I will quickly comment on a topic called as yield Curve Inversion. Now, yield curve inversion. Now, yield curve inversion, this is the difference between your two-year bond returns and 10-year bond returns, so to say. Two-year, this is short-term debt. Ten-year, this is long-term debt. Usually, relationship is when you are depositing money on long-term basis, you should get a higher rate of return. If you're depositing money for a short-term rate, then you should get like lower-term return, 6%. This spread needs to be there and this spread needs to be positive, the difference between long term and short term. Yield Curve Inversion means that the debt market has been broken down to such an extent and it has been skewed to such an extent that is a long term debt. People are not trusting it. And as a result, the spread between these two things has almost come down to zero, and in some cases, it has become negative. Now, very interesting data here that it became negative here, it became negative here after 2020.. But why 2008 this became negative and 2020 it became negative? Because debt market has been killed. What do I mean by debt market has been killed? For example, if you invest in corporate debt, usually, HNI, FII, DII, they invest. Why? Because the ticket size of debt used to be high. If you either invest via mutual funds or you pick a higher quantum of debt. I'm just putting that number, arbitrary number, but this number used to be very high. Now what has happened is that democratization of debt. What is democratization? It's because of the simple reason, this instrument, systematically is being killed, unnecessarily. Because the middle-class person who can't afford a house, what do we do? We need to spend the money on the middle-class. We take the REITs.. If you actually understand it sensibly from an economics principle perspective, it makes no sense. Reets, I can show you. Where a house should be worth 4 crores, but reits can be a real estate. Now the party that is running this reets will now sell it to. Now, if you are investing in these crazy items, you are, of course, going to lose money. Bottom line, without getting into the economics behind it too much, debt has been systematically killed. Real estate has been systematically killed due to what? Due to excessive taxation. So now,. So see, FDs are not beating inflation. Real estate is not a tradable instrument. It has low liquidity. It's good. There is no problem in real estate. Not rates, two very, very good asset. In fact, one of my primary movers in the last one year, it has given me 180% gains in the last one year. But in India, can you systematically buy BTC? Not really. What about gold? Gold may be a lot of money. There is again no point or not much point going here. You can find my views to be radical. Honestly, my goal is to give you rational, sensible data. World changes. People who do not change become dinosaurs and they get disrupted. And a lot of people are going to get disrupted in the next few years. So having macro analysis skills, understanding it. I spent crazy amount of time studying the world, studying the world of economics, personally visiting a lot of countries now, studying, meeting a lot of rich people, understanding their viewpoint of investing. I get to do this by running my hedge fund. It has opened a lot of doors for me in order to analyze the markets, all that stuff. And I try to bring that But where will you take it? This This is the primary problem that investors right now are facing. I've been having this conversation with a lot of H&Is.. We have been watching your videos, we have been speaking with you, all that stuff. But what do we do? We started It is like 10 crores. Now it is like 14 crores, something like this. What do we do? Should we book profits? What is it that we should be doing? Okay, very simple words. We should follow Mr. Warren Buffett. Have some opportunity cash which you can deploy when opportunities come and add that same time, do do not go undervalued on equities. Equities should still be a significant portion of your portfolio. I am not pulling it out. When we clearly see that there is a massive euphoria, then of course, there can be a deep correction, and then we can somewhat time it. But right now is not the phase of timing that. We are not in that euphoric phase. And I've been one of the very few analysts who has been saying it for the last two, two and a half years.. I mean, YouTube, they're getting a lot of videos on all that stuff. When crash was going on, no one had the courage to make these type of videos. Anyways, coming back to the topic, and there are final two, three points that I will tell you. See, point number one is that you should be ready for minor corrections. Now, what is the meaning of minor corrections? I'm going to show you. I have at least been four or five times. What should you do when you find minor corrections? This is very important. This is where my community comes into the picture because. I was there through the entire day guiding my community, what to do, etc. If you are a serious investor, I would still suggest definitely go check out my community. You will learn a lot. Basically, you have that cash component. This is where you should use it. You should not be panicking.. It will still grow like this only. Why? Because the debt on the world is increasing. In fact, I will show you one quick graph also here. This has to do with government expenses. Here are government interest repayments. It is this type of money, 1997. This, exponentially. People think that stock market returns are directly proportional to the strength of the economy. Economy is going to tatters. It's not doing anything much. In fact, at one point in time, on a five-year basis, Zimbabwe's stock market was the best performing stock market in the world. Zimbabwe's economy is not a turrum, it's really doing all that stuff. But people don't want to understand all these facts. So anyways, coming back to the topic, see, basically, divide your portfolio into two. The first part of your portfolio, it should be in the stock market. Do not go equity light. Now, it really depends. For example, personally speaking, most 65, 70% of my networth is in equities. How much ever you want to invest. On top of that, what I'm doing right now is that I'm building a cash bucket. Like Mr. Warren Buffet, I'm going to put that money to use when there is for 10% correction. And these type of minor corrections will happen. Now, when will they happen? But if you just wait, you will definitely get these 10, 10% opportunities. So the split that I'm using is that, Hey, I'm trying to create, let's say, if I have one CR in the market, then I would at least have 20 Ls as my cash bucket because then I can take advantages of these type of phases. This is literally point one. Point two has to do with the concept of diversification. Since the day I have started my YouTube channel, I have been a firm advocate of diversification. People keep on asking me,. For example, I purchased HDFC Bank. I have a lot of faith on HDFC Bank. What can I do? Numbers are good. Everything is good. Everyone understands. No one is panicking by holding HDFC Bank. On the flip side, I had purchased Aawas. It has given massive run-up. Hdfc, AMC, it has given crazy run-up. Zomato, DoubleSight, B-Zada, ho gya. Equitas, Jio Small Finance, Punj National Bank, Meta, 250% run-up and all that stuff. You basically buy a bunch of stocks. You allocate your money into... Some stocks will work, some stocks will not work. That's how investing world operates. If people are telling you otherwise, they're just You will keep on acting on all those recommendations and you'll go bonkers. You just have to pick your set of 30, 40 stocks, be well diversified in that, and that's it. And have a faith, even when things are not running. For example, right now is HDFC Bank running?. Now, happy faces. A lot of you might be smiling. But see, in the last one, one and a half year, it has not run. It's not as if it's fundamentally bad stock. You pick fundamentally good things, you stick by it. That's the concept of diversification. Now, if you're on a big portfolio, definitely diversify into something like real estate, definitely diversify into something like BTC. All these are good, good assets.. Now, third key point, SIP versus bulk buying. Now, I am becoming a more and more proponent of bulk buying over SIP. And they will keep on doing this. They had done this here also, and they are doing it here also. Markets will be managed. It's becoming more and more manipulative, so to say. So what I would rather do is that I would buy opportunities. So these are opportunity points to buy. I would not go crazy here when the markets are hitting there. If there is a breakdown of a. So then that is what I would do. So final key point that, hey, still always go back to that point of reinvestment. Don't keep on waiting for a market crash because crash, I don't know when it will be. For example, if it was in 2008, 2020, it would have been. Government just simply printed money, took the markets up. Within 2008, it took me 3, 4 years. 2020, 2021, it was all time high. So it's like absolute crazy. So that is where we are. These are five, six points that you should know. I hope that this made sense. If it did, do press the like button and I'll see you soon.