Marcos Jr Administration: Assessments and Recommendations

Aug 6, 2024

Lecture: Two Years of Marcos Jr Administration - Assessments and Policy Recommendations

Host: Dana Denai, Chief of Staff, Stratbase Group

Welcome and Introduction

  • Event: Post-SONA forum on the two years of Marcos Jr Administration
  • Organized by Democracy Watch Philippines in partnership with Stratbase ADR Institute
  • Virtual event via Zoom and FB Live
  • Purpose: Assess Marcos Jr's performance and provide policy recommendations

Opening Remarks: Prof. Victor Andres Dindo Manhit

  • Focus: Geopolitical risk, economic issues, inflation, poverty, job creation, and national security
  • Importance of addressing cost of living, supporting small-medium enterprises, and investing in digital infrastructure
  • Emphasis on economic security and maritime security
  • Urgent need to stop misinformation and cyber threats

Speaker 1: Mr. Andrew Masigan

Topic: Economic Environment, Investments, Trade, and Ease of Doing Business

  • Economic Performance: 2010-2023
    • Average growth rate: 6.4% (2010-2019), 6.3% (post-pandemic)
    • Current GDP growth: 5.6% (2022), expected 5.8-6.2% (2023)
    • Inflation dropped to 3.7% (June 2023)
    • Unemployment: 4.7% (2023)
  • Challenges
    • Reliance on consumer spending, weak industrial base
    • FDI intake lower than Vietnam
    • Need to improve manufacturing, exports, and investment-driven growth
  • Opportunities
    • $100 billion investment from US, Japan, and Philippines trilateral summit
    • Growth of IT-BPM industry, surpassing OFW remittances
    • Threats from AI to existing jobs

Speaker 2: Mr. Richard Heydarian

Topic: 2025 Midterm Contest, Governance, and Electoral Prospects

  • Political Landscape
    • Importance of pragmatic leadership in foreign policy
    • Recalibration of drug war and media relations under Marcos Jr
    • Foreign policy shift towards US and allies
  • Elections and Opposition
    • 2025 elections to feature multiple opposition groups
    • Analysis of Marcos Jr's balancing act in foreign policy
    • Importance of addressing economic issues like inflation and job creation

Speaker 3: Dr. Francisco Magno

Topic: Environmental Governance: Water, Critical Minerals, and Climate Change Adaptation

  • Water Resources
    • Uneven distribution and challenges such as watershed degradation, pollution, and population growth
    • Importance of improving water governance and infrastructure
  • Critical Minerals
    • Need for exploration and investment in nickel processing for renewable energy
    • Aligning Social Development Management Programs (SDMP) with local SDGs
  • Climate Change Adaptation
    • Enhancing disaster risk management, agricultural productivity, and coastal erosion prevention
    • Importance of digital infrastructure and knowledge partnerships

Speaker 4: Dr. Renato De Castro

Topic: National Security and Foreign Affairs: West Philippine Sea

  • Marcos Jr's Balanced Foreign Policy
    • Initial balanced approach between China and the US
    • Shift to hard balancing against Chinese expansion
  • Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADSI)
    • Forward projection of military capability to exclusive economic zone
    • Importance of alliances and security partnerships
    • Long-term strategic goals for economic and maritime security

Speaker 5: Dr. Alma Salvador

Topic: Public Opinion, Disinformation, and Chinese Influence

  • Disinformation and Propaganda
    • Sources and narratives shaping public opinion
    • Impact on bilateral relations and need for calibrated response
  • Securitization of Bilateral Relations
    • Linkage between foreign policy and domestic issues like food and energy security
    • Importance of managing cyber and maritime security risks

Open Forum

  • Key Issues
    • Economic challenges: inflation, job creation, food security
    • Importance of linking foreign policy with domestic concerns
    • Need for whole-of-nation approach to address security threats
  • Pogo Ban
    • Implications for National Security and Economic Impact
    • Importance of regulating and operationalizing the ban
  • West Philippine Sea
    • Emotional and political significance in upcoming elections
    • Need for continued assertiveness and strategic partnerships

Closing Statements

  • Key Takeaways
    • Emphasis on economic security, environmental resilience, national identity, and comprehensive defense strategy
    • Importance of Coalition-building, critical thinking, and mature political culture
    • Need for educational campaigns and institutional reforms to address disinformation and foreign influence

Note: This summary captures the main points and topics discussed during the forum. The content is organized for clarity and ease of study.