hold up did did Gareth Solway just turn bullish on Bitcoin in the Bitcoin chart if we draw our trend lines in here it looks very similar to what we're seeing here big up move and then sideways consolidation so really if you look at this on a big time frame this is actually bullish consolidation on bitcoin and I would fully expect it to make a move to the upside maybe in the next couple months we're getting a market rebound this morning after what appears to be one of the worst Tech sell-offs since 2022 gar Solway is here to break down exact what's going on he is the chief Market strategist that verified investing.com we've been talking about his views on Tech Bitcoin ethereum gold silver oil all of it welcome back Gareth hey David great to be back thanks for having me is the uh correction over we're getting a huge rebound this morning what's going on yeah so we are getting a rebound U markets are seeing bu the dippers come in in general I would say no the rebound is not going to continue we'll likely see further downside couple reasons for that and the big one that's bugging investors is that you have valuations on Mega cap Tech that have gotten way too out of line with reality and when I say that what I mean is that you basically have 30 to 40 PE ratios on companies that as long as growth would continue that's great they can be justified but it's clear that the US economy is slowing and thus the FED will eventually cut rates but that slowing will slow the job essentially the growth of earnings in the future and then you just have an over allocation of investors that have piled into these names and there's just always a kind of a kind of a reversion trade there with people just taking profits and that's what we're seeing right now so um the economy uh slowing that's a subject of debate amongst many people what are you looking at that indicates to you that it's slowing yeah so you've seen the PMI data lately and again the PMI data has shown that we've generally been shrinking in that side we've seen the jobs data starting to get weaker jobless claims were about three months ago averaging around 25,000 per week we're now up to about 235 on a weekly average so lots of signals are slowing are showing slowing in addition I think we just have to look at like delinquency rates right when you have delinquency rates at levels not seen on credit cards on auto loans since 2010 that is a signal that there is a huge group in the US that already feel like they're in a recession whether it's high costs from inflation or just kind of a lack of of new opportunities for them there's definitely this feeling that that a portion is already in recession and when we say that the FED is likely to cut on this weakness does this cut mean bullishness or bearishness for stock markets so historically and again it's important to go by the data historically the stock market starts to fall dramatically when the FED starts to cut rates it's when the FED is thinking about it and the market is hoping for it that we go up which is what we've seen over the last you know three six nine 12 months but reality is is that we get we get a market that falls when they start cutting and the the thought process there is that investors worry that the FED is behind the curve at that point that once the FED is forced to cut it's already going to be a hard landing and the FED needs to do more more more more and the FED is going to be very measured on these Cuts unless things get really out of control it won't make the markets happy it won't make investors happy so I think that's the key in that respect if we take a look at the stock markets now I want to point something out to the audience so let's take a look at um the uh NASDAQ index or we can take Nvidia one of the biggest uh tech stocks out there right now if we can pull up a chart um whichever one you think is a better and then I want to compare that to the rest of um or the other indices but first yeah let's take a look at uh uh the NASDAQ huge selloff over the course of the last week so two days over the course of last week where we had both the biggest single day drops since 2022 um it happened yesterday as well and um you're saying that this bounce that we're seeing today this I think it's up about 70 basis points as of 11 11:30 a.m. eastern time uh that's just buying buying the uh buying back the dip yes yeah yeah so I mean you you if you think about it since 2009 every pullback has been a buying opportunity in fact you know we haven't even seen pullbacks of this magnitude uh I think we're down about 8% on the NASDAQ 100 and there haven't been pullbacks of this magnitude really since what we saw in 2022 and so conditionally investors have just thought okay just buy every dip if this was my chance to get an Nvidia it's pulled back 20% um these are the opportunities and that kind of lulls people into buying the dip and you also see you know decent news on pce data pce data came in line with estimates that kind of lets out a sigh of relief but when it comes down to it the big cap tech stocks have gone vertical to such a degree that there's more reversion trade to go and we've seen the Russell I mean the Russell has just uh catapulted to the upside because it was left behind eventually both those indexes will go down together and again this is clear and I want to show a couple things so let's let's remove these lines that I have on the chart I want to show a monthly chart of the NASDAQ 100 and I'm going to take a parallel we're going to take the low from covid and we're going to connect it to the bare Market lows of 2022 and I want to show you this this parallel trend line and this is where technical analysis is just mindblowing and what we could see here is that if you take the low and connect it to the bare Market low So Co low to Bare Market low stretch a perfect parallel up look at the high bull market of 2021 and look at what we tagged on the charts just in the past month at the all-time high we tagged that trend line now as a technician of the charts what do I know well I know the last time we hit this line we had a massive sell-off so it makes sense if you extrapolate that out that we should see a big selloff in the NASDAQ in addition month is almost over right next week I think Wednesday's the last day of the month you're getting what's called a topping tail formation here on the monthly chart that is a bearish reversal signal a sign of a top as well so the technicals data driven back tested this is what it's telling us it's telling us there's more downside before we continue with the interview I want to tell you about another way you can invest your Bitcoins and store them safely instead of using a traditional wallet or an exchange consider an IRA today sponsor itust capital is one such Ira that offers 35 crypto assets and the lowest trading fees in the crypto Ira space at 1% only and being an IRA it also offers unique tax benefits if You' like to get started and learn more click on it trust. capital David in the link down below or scan the QR code up here if you're over 18 and you want to open a new account with cash or roll over an existing account you can do so using my referral link and if you use that referral link you'll get $100 in signing bonuses so in 2021 uh the last Peak that's what but that's what you're referencing we saw a uh a correction from 16,000 points all the way to a Bott of 10,000 that's a correction of about 60% getting my math right in my head yeah or not 60% about yeah about about uh yeah about about about 60% about half you're talking about this correction here from the high of 2021 back to the low the lows of 2022 right and that was a 30 on the NASDAQ 100 that was a 38% drop and so what you do is you you figure okay well if we do come back to this lower level how much of a drop would that be and we take the high and we drop it down and that would be about a 35% move mainly because the stock market's higher now so the same draw down would be slightly less in percentage term so I think that again you know six I should say about 12 to 18 months out just like the last one you would expect about a 35% drop in the NASDAQ yeah I my my my math is not mathing this morning you're right at 38% I know what I it's early on the west coast I it's okay it is I apologize to my viewers who now think I never passed third grade math but yes 38% and drop from 2021 to 22 the conditions back then were different though right Gareth the Fed was tightening uh it was a huge tightening cycle and people were concerned about a recession that up till now technically never came so my my argument is maybe we can't make the same macro parallels to today well so so a couple things that's and and you're drawing a good point here so number one is that human emotion doesn't change right so when you were bullish and and you know euphoric in 2021 and markets were going up it seemed like markets could never go down we saw GameStop run we saw all the meme stocks and all that craziness go on that bullish greed is exactly what has driven up these Mega caps and in fact GameStop did run again just a month or two ago right so we've seen that same sort of thing and so human nature is that way and that it tends to repeat greed and fear greed and fear it just happens at different levels on the charts and so I want to just point that out the other thing is is that you're right in 2022 the fear was oh my goodness the FED is going to tighten too much and cause a recession we're now going to be entering a point is oh my goodness the fed's not cutting enough we're going to have a hard landing and a recession and it's just it's ultimately the same endgame of that recession that's going to cause a Slowdown in profit growth that will drive down these valuations of these crazy Mega caps so ultimately my question is and I guess some people's question is uh looking at this chart do the charts tell you whether or not we're going to get another 38 or 37% correction I mean does it give you a sense of magnitude yeah so so what you do is you you do go by the parallel right the parallel generally from the high end eventually you find your way to the low end and you can see this on so many charts out there these parallels are everywhere but in general yeah so you'll have stopping points right the previous 2021 high will be a major technical support the market will get a bounce there most likely uh you'll see a lot of Bulls come out of the woodwork and saying okay now we're starting our next leg up but in general if we go historically to these channels it does end up with a continued move down after a bounce and we probably do go back to the low end of the channel by the way exactly one year ago last July was also when we had a huge drop in the tech sector well stocks overall now that just could just be a coincidence but I'm not sure if there's a seasonality aspect at play yeah you know the the the cycle action is interesting with the year but I also think it's seasonality a little bit as well um you get into this kind of lull summer light volume environment where markets are very skittish because one little thing pops up and there's not enough volume because a lot of the institu are on vacation right their their big Traders are away and you can look at the volume on the markets it's been incredibly light in fact I can throw up my volume on the bottom of this chart and what we can clearly see is that the volume was decreasing more and more as we were head heading back down and so if I draw a trend line here if we look back at when we were at the lows like if you go back to the lows of 2022 this was the volume Trend and we've seen it continue to go lower which tells you back here institutions were buying quite a bit over here when volume gets this light and you get this last bull run it tells you institutions are not buying that that run and that again to me is a warning signal it's almost the same as with gold right what was the warning signal that I said gold was going to likely break out on not technical technicals were different but fundamentals I said guys the the central banks around the world are buying gold like crazy that's a no-brainer this is the same thing just in reverse the institutions are not buying and the markets are making new all-time highs this is a warning sign could you do something else for us gar could you draw a trend line starting from October 2023 um there was a trough then yep absolutely and let's just see what happens if we make that parallel now um yeah so it looks like if we if we start there I mean I'm just picking a point um but if we start there it looks like the corrections already been fully priced in right so yes you're right in in that we haven't hit the trend line yet so technically we probably still should but it's only a little bit lower we're talking around 450 4 in addition you have a secondary level right in here that's just below that so see this flat top right here that's going to be major technical support you can see how it hit right here and then bounced up and made that high so I would expect a technical bounce many people will come out and say hey the the the the correction is over I just don't buy that based on what we're seeing and remember David couple things to go over is number one remember what I said is that that it's it's when the FED starts cutting rates and we're likely going to get one in September that the markets really start turning down and number two it's when the yield curve un inverts that we get the recession and we're starting to get the yield curve getting close to un inversion and that is another warning sign for me as a technical Trader so so my question is uh how you decide to pick the bottom of the trend line what's your thought process well so you mean you mean the bottom of the market or where I put the trend line yeah so yeah that's what I meant yeah so the trend line guide as as you as you learn how to draw trend lines the trend line will guide you to where to draw it it's it has to make sense and so what we do is we see that the market had a a move up here and it kind of had a flat top you had all these highs and then it pulled back and so what that's telling you is there was a lot of resistance there and then notice how here the market broke out above it and then retraced right to that level before making its push to new all-time highs that's telling you that that level is significant so if the chart is telling me it's significant I have to pay attention to it the same thing with this UPS sloping trend line there it's not a coin Co incidence that the market is coming back into that line and you're connecting the two major pivots over the last year uh at the lows they coordinate right to that level and so this area again 450 to 454 on the QQQ will be massive support and it should yield a bounce okay um now what what we're witnessing right now is kind of historic because we've got this AI boom that's happening that's never happened before Nvidia and a lot of AI stocks and some of the mag 7 are pushing up the entire index and the concern is whether or not those stocks are going to start pushing down the entire index now is that what's happening right now yeah I mean that the mega caps in the semis right I mean if we go to the SMH and and I don't remember the last time we talked if I talked about this but but when you look at the SMH it has had a pretty big fall but in all fairness it is still a minor corrective move but speaking of trend lines look at the major support that the SMH is into so we actually could be on the verge of a shorter term bounce on the semiconductor index at least before the next leg lower now the other thing to just keep in mind here is that there's a there was a signal on the chart at the semi high that I have never seen in my life before and it is one of the most bearish signals ever what you got here this is called a reversal engulfing candle where the chart again basically a candle opens above the previous one's high and it closes below the pre the low of the previous one that's called again A reversal engulfing candle now those happen in fact if we go to Nvidia here take a look what happened right here Nvidia reversal engulfing candle if we go back to the last time that Nvidia topped out in in uh it was back in March reversal engulfing candle and it corrected 20% so you do get these reversal engulfing candles quite often on charts that are great reversal signals but what we didn't get and what we got here is that we got a massive dual headed reversal engulfing candle so right here look at how you got a reversal engulfing it came back up and another one and then look at the sell off that is one of the most bearish signals I've ever gotten on the charts that told me major downside was coming and so far we've had a decent correction on the SMH we've dropped from Peak to trough 18% now again are we due for a bounce yeah I mean you go to Micron I mean look at some of these charts by the way remember we were just talking about channels before look at this beautiful Channel see how the high end of the channel and sorry I'm jumping around here but the high end of the channel got hit and where did we go to the low end small bounce and then a breakdown that's almost Picture Perfect what I'm expecting for the NASDAQ 100 but speaking of Micron is it due for a technical bounce the answer is it probably is it's down from $160 to 110 108 it probably is due for a reprieve here before some more downside if you let's go back to the NASDAQ warmart time Gareth uh some people might say well look if you just zoom out every time it's had a big correction whether it broke below the trend line it's always inverted back up it's always made a new all-time high and eventually the the you know the um the highs get higher and the and the lows also get higher as well so if you were to make the argument that perhaps we've got more downside well can't you also make the counterargument yeah we let's just leave it alone wait for it to correct don't touch it and then just wait for it to go back up at some point can we can we is that part of your strategy yeah well so it's it's not really part of my strategy but I totally get that it's part of a lot of investor strategies and what I mean by that is that yes over the longterm markets always go up right so you'll have draw Downs I mean heck look at China China is so far off of its highs from like 10 15 years ago but eventually will China make new all-time highs absolutely it will um and we saw the NASDAQ in the do bubble collapse and it took 15 years but eventually it made a new all-time high but again for someone who likes to manage their money and grow their money and not have to sit in a trade where I'm down for 15 years I'm much more of the active participant where if I see something that's likely going to happen like when we tag this upper trend line to me it was like okay well now it makes sense to at least move P partially to cash so that you can protect now whether you're sure or not each individual investor has to decide if that's for them but for me I short that every time I short that and so far so good on this pullback as we come in now for me I'd rather short here and then buy down here and save myself 35% uh what what is your position right now are you are you still short or did you get out of that or you how you so there there have been there have been trades that I have covered on the short side so for instance socks which is an inverse a short ETF for the uh semiconductors this one we we banked a nice chunk of change on here it had a big run up uh just in the last couple weeks when the semis so when the semis go down this goes up 3x now you don't this isn't a this is a trading ETF it's not a long-term ETF because it will go to zero over the longer term but this went from $17 all the way to $29 in a matter of two weeks incredible run on this type of thing so that I took profits on um there are some other shorts that I did but I'm still holding my core shorts NASDAQ SNP uh Nvidia uh these type of shorts will come in absolutely and speaking of Nvidia you can see that again the stock did tag some support yesterday and got a bounce but eventually it's going back to this major shelf level look at this level right here this is a great opportunity for a quick bounce if it comes down here uh but again this is at 95 and it'll see that level I'm sure of it uh real quick you said uh the trading ETF the um inverse or the lever ETF that you were just talking about it's going to go to zero eventually why does it do that ah good question so the way it works is with double and triple ETFs because there's because they're levered every time an ETF drops and goes up there's a little slippage in price and so what you have to recognize is that over time every double and triple ETF will go down in fact I made this mistake early on in my career not realizing this and if you're in them long enough it's a guaranteed loss and what I mean by this is is just zoom out on this so this is a this is a long ETF on excuse me a short ETF on the semiconductors yet at some point it was $890 back in 2022 trust me it was never that level it's just it does reverse stock splits every time it gets down there it does a reverse stock split to get the price back up and then it kind of chops around but slowly goes back to zero and goes back and forth and so for investors out there watching be very wary of double and triple ETFs they do ultimately all go to zero okay perhaps we need to be vigilant of which Market we're getting in and out of so let's take a look at the Russell and I like to just do a quick comparison to the audience here so if you go to yeah and then if you add if you go to the add sign uh right next right next to the and then you addic so the NASDAQ index and then uh same percentage scale if you yeah if you just zoom in to the to the last like couple of weeks right you you see a big Divergence here and and it looks like it just looks to me like uh so that yeah the the nasdaq's been underperforming and the the bar chart right now is a Russell it just looks to me like there's a rotation going on because even this week as the NASDAQ was correcting uh the Russell was holding steady so how are you looking at this yeah so this is what we call the reversion trade right and so this happened the same thing with the S&P uh equal weight as well as the S&P they were diverging it was creating what we call crocodile Jaws where they were going this like this well now you're seeing the reversion in the opposite way where there was so much money money flow that went into the mega cap Tech names and they kind of forgot in fact there are there are stocks that actually saw selling because investors were like well this stock isn't going up let me take my money out and put it into the mega caps well guess what it got too overloaded in the mega caps and what we saw was a reversion trade now where the Russell is starting to play catchup and let's keep in mind that the Russell if we flip back to the Russell here the Russell has not made a new all-time high since 2021 so if you look at this chart this is when these two were basically at all-time highs together then look at the NASDAQ and look at where the Russell is look at the Divergence in the charts it's actually pretty incredible but prior if you go back to 2020 they were actually tracking beautifully all the way up the Divergence really started in May of 2023 and just got bigger and bigger and bigger okay so are you saying that we should be La the Russell right now I how are you interpreting this movement yeah so that's that's a great point so the way I look at it is this is that I do think the Russell at least needs to come up here and tag tag the all-time high um so my guess is there's a still a little bit more upside in the Russell to be had but I do caution people in understanding the way market Cycles work and economic Cycles work is that as long as people believe the FED can engineer a soft Landing then the Russell will outperform when interest rates start coming down however as soon as the economy starts slipping and everyone starts freaking out that we're headed into a recession the Russell the small caps will start to do poorly again so there's a window of opportunity to be in the Russell maybe for a little bit more upside now to be honest would I get in here I wouldn't because it's already had a big run and the upside is somewhat limited like if we look at the upside left it's only about 10% that's a pretty thin profit margin to go into a trade saying hey the best I'm going to do is 10% so to be honest for me I've already missed this trade I did participate with I have zoom in my Holdings I have some other plays as well and by the way I think that's the better way to do it find some of these charts that are unbelievably discounted like a zoom which is trading at a 10p I mean you compare Zoom to Apple even it's night and day on how discounted things like this are but I think that's the way you play it the Russell itself is much about the the regional Banks as you know the Russell has a lot of regional Banks and the K has had an insane move which is pushed the Russell up quite a bit and here's the K chart look at that move there yeah uh by the way we didn't mention this yet but um maybe part of the reason for today's rebound is the fact that the core pce um Rose 2.5% in June from a year ago uh it's down from the previous month and so that that is presenting a more clear path to a Fed cut um but I mean we we talked about the FED already but I'm just saying today's data more or less validates what we talked about already but we have to move on to another asset class now um Gareth uh cryptos ethereum had a huge move downward this week and I don't know if this surprised you or not I I know the eth ETF launch which happened this week was supposed to be bullish news uh for a lot of eth investors and up till this week people were very excited about that uh what happened why did it go the opposite way as some people have expected so so the eth ETF yes it launched um it launched probably at the worst time when the stock market and the mega cap Tech were collapsing lower um and I think that was really the issue here so what we saw was day one it had about a 100 million in inflows but on day two what we saw is the stock market was cratering that day I think it was the biggest down day in the NASDAQ since 2022 and it just created a scenario where a lot of these investors that bought the ETF which were probably stock market investors because you have to do that in a brokerage account they ended up selling it in fear and then there was $108 million in outflows and the problem with that is that once you see that and investors start saying wow there was more outflows than in flows it creates a scenario where fear comes in and that dro the price down quite dramatically now again where does it go from here I think a lot of things will be all about what the stock market does if the stock market stabilizes if we see upside on risk assets then ethereum probably does well as the ETF will see inflows but I do think that there is some concern here that the altcoins inclusive of ethereum are much more tightly tied to Apple to Nvidia to these other names and if they do start to fall then you have to think the altcoins could be headed lower okay uh this eth and Bitcoin Divergence again it's making alligator chob like our like the very visual graphic we just painted for the NASDAQ versus the Russell what's happening right now in the E eth versus Bitcoin space um yeah let me let me show you something really interesting so Bitcoin is slowly maturing into a digital gold a store of safety and what I mean by that is when did Bitcoin bottom out over here it was on July 5th so July fth was the low since then it's generally been tracking higher let's go to Microsoft's chart when did Microsoft put in its high its all-time high was on July 5th so what does that tell us and you can by the way you can look at meta platform same thing a lot of the mega caps the same thing the day they topped was the day Bitcoin bottomed and as they've Fallen Bitcoin has seen a Resurgence what that's telling us is money is coming out of those Mega caps and some of it is going into Bitcoin as a safety hedge believe it or not this is very good news for Bitcoin over the longer term folks really really good news doesn't mean it won't have fluctuations even today we saw up and down a thousand points on bitcoin but it is a very bullish sign to see that when there's fear in the stock market in the mega caps money does go into Bitcoin Bitcoin is um it's hovering around what is it right now it's about $67,000 let's talk about Bitcoin now it did breach above $70,000 not too long ago and then it went down it's just really having a really hard time reaching above 75k um tell us what's tell us what the uh the charts are telling us yeah so what what Bitcoin is doing right now is actually what's called digestion of the recent move so you had this huge move up going back to October of 2023 we were basically trading in the 20,000 range we ripped up few pullbacks along the way but we went to 738 74,000 that is a massive move up I mean we're talking about from 20,000 to 74 you know basic a 3X plus now the kicker here is that when moves like that occur things have to have what's called bullish consolidation or digestion great analogy would be a marathon runner marathon runner runs 26.5 miles or 26 miles in change and what it is what they have to do can they run another Marathon no they have to refuel they have to rest then they can run another Marathon so if we just draw out what has happened here on the chart we had a big move up and then essentially what you get is this sideways chop of digestion and usually what it forms is this kind of parallel Channel which is exactly what Bitcoin is doing here and then eventually you likely will break to the upside so if we look at this the eventual move should be up and this is exactly what we're seeing here in the Bitcoin chart if we draw our trend lines in here it looks very similar to what we're seeing here big up move and then sideways consolidation so really if you look at this on a big time frame this is actually bullish consolidation on bitcoin and I would fully expect it to make a move to the upside maybe in the next couple months that okay well we're going to come back to that you know I was just looking at on my screen I have the charts open as well um I'm finding the last time it's looked like this and what I found was 2019 if you if you don't mind going back to 2019 for us just zooming in from 2019 to 2021 um so if you yeah if you take a look at this big run up in 2019 I know you have to zoom in for that yep there we go yeah this big run up in 2019 why where you have your cursor that consolidation pattern right there from the top looks a lot like what is happening kind of like what it's happening now had a big drop in 2020 and then it went back up yep I would I would I think your analysis is spot on David absolutely agree so you had the big move up here this was a massive move from about $3,000 all the way to 14,000 it then had to digest that I mean what is that a 5x almost a 5x it had to digest that move the more it moves the more it has to digest so it digested for multiple years and then look at what happened it broke out had a little check back and then off to the races and I think again in general that's likely what we're doing now obviously if something crazy happens in the crypto markets if regulation I mean there's always the wh ifs but in general the charts are what tell us the truth I mean listen generally I tell investors don't believe what I'm saying go to the charts and look at the data it's all about the data and when you look at the data you're right dead on that's looks like what's going on right here this type of pattern formation which leads to a breakout hold up did did Gareth Solway just turn bullish on bitcoin is that my headline right there I mean let's keep in mind when it broke 30,000 I said Hey listen all right now it's broken above a major level it should go back to the the all-time highs um but remember I'm a Trader so I'll be long and short a hundred times in the next couple months um and again you know that's just the nature of how I'm how I trade is that I go long and short uh but again if you're a hodler I think you just keep huddling so so right now are the risks more skewed to the downside or the upside for Bitcoin so that and that's a great question so let's look at the pivot line so there's a pivot line on bitcoin that I'm watching see this one right here and what we basically saw on this chart this is the daily chart of Bitcoin it was coming down we broke below this area we came back we retested it was rejected it then came up broke above it then retested the other side went higher then also came back in retested and look so my point is this is what I call a pivot line at around 64,000 63,5 as long as price stays above this line it's bullish if it breaks below just like over here you have to think there's another down move but as long as it holds 63,0 450 keep a bullish bias on bitcoin to the upside okay by the way back a couple years ago when I was making the parallel to 2019 the moves to the downside and upside were like pretty extreme there was like a small correction was at 60% from 10 K all the way down to 4K and then and then in 2020 when it Peak then from 10K down to 5K so like 50% moves and then it sorted back up are you expecting the same kind of volatility today in 2024 no no definitely not so I think overtime more investors come and adopt Bitcoin and invest in Bitcoin the ETF should actually be a stabilizing Force the more institutional money you get in there a more stabilizing Force so as it becomes more of a mature asset with a more diverse investing crowd you will see stabilization so it's much much different than than 2019 versus 2013 and so on and so forth you know it's just it's it's interesting because when the Bitcoin ETF launched in uh in January we didn't get this big selloff in Bitcoin like we saw in eth um I don't know of the markets are just interpreting this products differently what's your personal take on the eth ETF is it is it a useful product for investors you think yeah it's it's definitely different right so so the adoption from the institutional side is is all about Bitcoin that's generally where I will put money on the longer term uh with the institutional money it's that kind of narrative of a of a of a digital gold that I think is so attractive to bitcoin versus the use case of an ethereum which then has to compete with salana which then has to compete with the next upand cominging coins and so there's definitely a difference here between use case coins versus something that's like a digital gold right I mean gold sure it has it's pretty on jewelry but in general it's it's a store of value and I think that's what Bitcoin is and why it stands out versus ethereum and the rest of them all right can we take a look at gold here and then let's uh close off in gold and uh oh we got to do oil but yeah let's do gold and oil and then we'll close off here Gareth uh gold first so yeah um another another uh strong month for um well I was going to say strong quarter but this the last month's been pretty bad but yeah strong quarter for gold but this last month's been pretty bad again um is this the beginning of a bigger bare market now for gold no it's still a bull market and I still think it goes a lot a lot higher so yeah you've gotten a pullback here but again the the longer term fundament are printing of money will resume the government is not even close to being fiscally responsible all of those factors are bullish for gold and metals precious metals in general um but having said that you still have a trade that needs to digest so just like Bitcoin right we had this big move to the upside and now you're kind of going sideways like this and that's very very normal in fact the best example of this you were bringing up on bitcoin back in 2019 but let's just go back here go back to 2018 look at that move and then look at all this dig gestion that was going on in Gold until the recent breakout took place and so for me I look at these patterns because they repeat over and over again because human nature doesn't change in terms of greed and fear and when you see something like this happen in the past chances are it will happen again and I I believe at least that that is what is happening here you're getting that digestion before your next move up okay uh silver though is also breaking down and uh people are concerned that uh this silver move um is just looking like a new be Market uh but when when you think about it maybe it's just following gold what's your take there yeah so there's no doubt that Silver's weaker than gold and and the reason there is clear is that China's still not recovering well industrial side in the US looks like it's slowing so it has that Dual side it's a store of safety but it's industrial metal we did break this key level of support which to me tells me Silver is likely headed to about $26 but I still think in the scheme of things as long as we don't break below this former kind of consolidation Zone I think it's a buying opportunity on Silver and I do think that eventually it just may take time because of the economic implications for silver but eventually silver does continue up and I still think that 4850 level from about a decade ago eventually will be tested okay uh perfect and and finally oil um choppy summer for oil so far uh it's again it's just it's just trending down the Commodities aren't having a great month Gareth no the Commodities aren't having a great month in fact before I jump into that I just want to show every want a chart look at the chart of copper I don't know if you've looked at this before but how nasty is that chart of copper you got you've got nickel but uh oh nickel I apologize nickel yeah copper is not much better it's a little thing yeah look at the chart of nickel and this again tells you recession recession I mean when you get industrial pure Industrial Metals to look like this and Copper's had a big move down recently from its highs here it's barely holding on to the 618 Fibonacci this is again a warning sign but like you mentioned going to oil this is the kicker here is that that oil is going to go lower so I have a downside Target of 74 in the short term that's probably over the next couple weeks but eventually if we are not even in a recession here and just using common sense and logic I'm a big fan of that if we're not in a recession yet and oil is trading near this support trend line right down here at 74 imagine what happens when we actually enter a recession and it's really going to be more of a global issue right so China might recover a little bit but without the us if the US is slipping into recession the rest of the globe will slow down as well opec's not looking like it wants to do any more Cuts uh we're talk we're hearing talk about increased drilling potentially obviously price will determine that from the the the Drillers but really I'm thinking $50 oil by next year at some point or lower okay uh so generally speaking these Commodities that play into the economy you're just bearish on them because yeah I don't think I mean listen something like nickel should bounce on a technical basis it's so beaten down but it's just it's hard to imagine that we're seeing a slow down in housing a Slowdown in the economy jobs Market slowing down all of those factors are slowing down and so any any industrial metal or industrial kind of thing like oil you likely will see further downside okay a final thing before I let you go this has been a long talk already but a lot of good info a lot of good volatility today to talk about uh Japan's uh Yen Japanese Yen it's just been soaring and it's speculated or suspected that the bank of Japan has been intervening in the open markets uh but it just yeah it's just been ripping higher I know that's the inverse chart for but if you look at JPY USD it's the same thing what is your read on this situation here yeah so it's very clear Japan intervened here and then they intervened here and what was so interesting about them intervening on this day where we got this big red candle is that that was the day that the CPI data came out and they did it at the exact same time as that data was released because they didn't want to be labeled a currency manipulator so they they timed it so it kind of almost was masked by the move in the CPI that was created But ultimately this is a big breakdown here do think you'll see a reversion trade back up maybe testing this 158 level on the USD JPY the dollar Yen but ultimately we might see this continuing to pull back um I would say and again interestingly enough look at this pivot right here and that was the low here so actually that tells me on a technical basis to expect a bounce in the near term but and again look at that pivot high and where did we bottom out right there perfectly on that level this is charts are amazing guys when you learn how to draw trend lines either way I do think that you get a bounce here but it's very possible we're headed lower on the dollar Yen over time which tells us the dollar is likely headed lower very good uh Gareth where can we find you uh you can find me at verified investing.com datadriven folks I'm So Into the charts so into the data it tells me everything I need to know not with a 100% certainty but with high probability anytime I use my brain or my heart or I love this or I love that I'm always wrong when I trade it's all about the data and the charts I just encourage everyone check out verified investing.com it's amazing in terms of just pure data right there perfect well thank you for that we'll put the link down below so make sure to check that out and um we'll see you next time appreciate it guys thank you so much buddy take care and thank you for watching don't forget to like And subscribe