Overview
The video analyzes 2025 fantasy football draft ADP data for the first ten rounds, recommending players to draft earlier than consensus and those to avoid in favor of higher-upside alternatives.
Round 1 – Preferred Picks Over ADP
- Derrick Henry and Ashton Genty (late first round) are better targets than Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nakua due to durability and stability concerns.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is preferred over Puka Nakua given a less risky situation.
Round 2 – Safer, Higher-Upside Choices
- Bucky Irving, Josh Jacobs, and Drake London are strong late second-round picks.
- Jacobs and Irving are safer than Devon Achane (injuries, QB risk).
- Drake London is preferred over Brian Thomas Jr. due to projected target competition.
- Jacobs and Irving are preferred over Jonathan Taylor, given Taylor’s volatility and health history.
Round 3 – Risk Management and Target Player
- Third round is deemed risky with limited "must-have" players.
- Kairean Williams is the only third-rounder strongly endorsed due to volume and role security.
- Willing to skip third-round options (e.g., Lad McConkey, Trey McBride, Tyreek Hill, Breece Hall, James Cook, T. Higgins, Garrett Wilson) for preferred value in round four.
Round 4 – Early Value Picks
- Alvin Kamara, Terry McLaurin, Kenneth Walker, and James Conner are recommended over many round three options.
- McLaurin is considered stable and likely to remain with Washington.
- Kamara offers a safer weekly floor, especially in PPR formats.
- Walker is liked for his offensive role despite injury concerns.
- Conner should be handcuffed with Trey Benson for risk mitigation.
Rounds 5–6 – Wide Receivers and Running Backs to Target
- DK Metcalf and David Montgomery are preferred over Rashee Rice and Joe Mixon due to safer roles and less uncertainty.
- Sixth-round RBs/WRs (DeAndre Swift, TreVeyon Henderson, Jameson Williams, Tony Pollard, George Pickens, Calvin Ridley) offer significant upside and value.
- Willing to take these players over some fifth-rounders (e.g., DeVonta Smith).
Rounds 7–8 – Late Best-Value Picks
- Chris Olave and Rome Odunze are highly recommended for seventh-round value, with Olave discounted due to past draft position.
- Evan Engram (eighth round) is a value tight end and preferred over Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews for his likely target share.
Rounds 9–10 – Final Round Deep Value
- Jordan Mason is a prime ninth-round running back, especially as a fill-in if Aaron Jones misses time.
- Dak Prescott is a late-round quarterback target offering top-12 upside.
- Matthew Golden is a high-upside late receiver, preferred over several injured or risky options.
- J.K. Dobbins (tenth round) is projected to start for Denver and is ranked higher than Travis Etienne and Cam Skattebo.
Decisions
- Draft Derrick Henry and Ashton Genty over Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nakua in round one.
- Prioritize Kairean Williams in round three; avoid mid-round risk for value in round four.
- Prefer DK Metcalf and David Montgomery over higher-ADP but riskier WR/RBs.
- Target Evan Engram as a value TE above Kelce or Andrews.
Action Items
- TBD – All fantasy drafters: Adjust draft boards to prioritize recommended players by round/ADP as outlined.
- TBD – Drafters selecting James Conner: Ensure Trey Benson is added as a handcuff.
- TBD – Monitor: News on Lad McConkey (Keenan Allen status), RJ Harvey (camp performance), and other injury updates.
Questions / Follow-Ups
- Monitor Keenan Allen's training camp for Lad McConkey adjustment.
- Track RJ Harvey’s camp news and ADP.
- Watch for clarity on Quinton Judkins’s legal status and contract.
- Assess Chris Godwin and Khalil Shakir’s injury recoveries before drafting.