Risks of Destabilizing the Planet

Introduction

• Importance of recent scientific discoveries about the planet's stability.
• Insights are troubling but offer hope for solutions.
• Johan Rockström's work on planetary stability.

Historical Context: Earth's Temperature Stability

• Ice core data insights.
• Graph showing temperature variability over 100,000 years.
  • Fluctuation of +/- 10°C in a decade.
  • Stability began 10,000 years ago; known as the Holocene.
• Holocene:
  • Temperature varied only +/- 1°C.
  • Stabilization of sea levels, predictable seasons, reliable weather.
  • Enabled civilization development.
• Current epoch: Anthropocene, age of humans as primary change drivers.

Risks in the Anthropocene

• Potential destabilization of the entire planet.
• Evidence from ice changes, particularly in Arctic and Antarctic.
• Importance of ice caps for climate stability:
  • Reflect 90-95% of incoming solar heat.
  • Risk of tipping from cooling to warming.

Tipping Points and Irreversible Changes

• Tipping points: irreversible changes once crossed.
• Greenland ice sheet: loss rate of 10,000 cubic meters/second.
• Domino effect in Earth's climate system.
• Risk of planet becoming self-reinforcing in warming.

Carbon Dioxide Levels and Climate Boundaries

• 1988: CO2 levels surpassed 350 ppm, entering danger zone.
• Current levels: ~415 ppm.
• Rising frequency of droughts, heat waves, floods, ice melting, permafrost thawing, forest fires.
• Danger zone: 350-450 ppm.
• High-risk zone: beyond 450 ppm.

Amazon and Potential Tipping Points

• Amazon drying out, risk of becoming savannah.
• Potential release of 200 billion tons of carbon in 30 years.
• Urgency of keeping carbon in forests.

Path to a Resilient Future

• Need to reduce carbon emissions to zero.
• Global temperature stabilization.
• Emission budget: less than 300 billion tons remaining to stay below 1.5°C.
• Current global emission rate: 40 billion tons/year.
• Urgency to bend the emissions curve now.
• Exponential reduction of emissions necessary.

Conclusion

• Future determined by actions this decade.
• Climate crisis a question of global security and stability.
• Responsibility to act decisively.
• Window of opportunity is still open for a sustainable future.
• Emphasis on the importance of acting now.