The meeting focused on analysis and projections for trading scenarios leading up to a CPI news event, discussing probability models, market structure, and wargaming for various trading strategies.
Attendees reviewed recent account issues (notably a hacked account) and troubleshooting steps, and analyzed previous and expected market behavior, using statistical and auction theory concepts.
Key takeaways included the importance of patience, scenario planning for news-driven days (CPI, NFP), and tactical adjustments to position sizing and order management.
No major decisions were made, but the group reinforced the daily process of wargaming and re-engineering as core practices.
Action Items
None specified with assigned owners or due dates in this transcript.
Account Security & Management
Noted that user Jade 0323 experienced an account hack, causing spam in chat groups; two-factor authentication and password changes have been advised.
General agreement that hacked accounts should immediately secure credentials and enable two-factor authentication.
Attendees acknowledged the atypical behavior for Jade and confirmed he is usually active and reliable.
Market Structure & Trading Scenarios
Discussed transition of support and resistance at previous day mid and the importance of acceptance above/below levels for auction theory and other trading models.
Highlighted probabilistic expectations for the next three hours, including likelihood of bearish or bullish closes based on historical volume/time-of-day metrics.
Detailed analysis of NFP Friday range and unfilled bullish gaps, indicating a strong market but lacking follow-through, signaling potential for significant movement once a breakout occurs.
Reviewed long true/false and short true/false scenarios for the trading day, with particular focus on how CPI news events can shape intraday structure.
Emphasized waiting for confirmed price action and statistical signals before entering trades, rather than preemptive positioning.
Walkthroughs of characteristic footprints and order flow behaviors to identify potential trade triggers and manage risk, with reminders to size positions appropriately, especially around news events to account for slippage.
Probability and Statistical Analysis
Used historical data to highlight probabilities of certain price levels being hit, especially around key times and during Thursday statistics.
Identified that gap levels and basis-point moves have statistical relevance for planning setups, emphasizing data-driven decision-making.
Outlined approaches to adapt probability thresholds and data bins for finer analysis (e.g., flexible basis point increments).
Process: Wargaming and Re-engineering
Reinforced the value of morning wargaming for scenario planning and afternoon re-engineering for review and improvement—compared to game tape analysis in sports.
Encouraged consistent daily journaling and process adherence, with the wargaming session providing tactical game plans for the day's trading.
Decisions
None recorded as formal decisions; guidance was given to wait for confirmation from statistical signals and price action rather than acting prematurely.
Open Questions / Follow-Ups
No explicit open questions or follow-ups were raised within this transcript. Attendees confirmed understanding of the day's trading plan and analytical process.