Transcript for:
Butterfly Effect L6: Data & Levels

you have two sides of a leg and a move right like you've got strength versus greed the back side of the leg i don't know why these triangles do this but the back side of the leg is always going to be the stronger part of the leg the front side of the leg is always going to be the greedier part of the leg okay so when you have strength versus greed when you have these back sides of the leg you have larger reactions because they're stronger pieces of the move that's holding for example like this would represent this moment in time is is right here right you've got a larger piece of of the move than if this was getting hit right here you have a smaller piece of time in in space right so you actually have a smaller piece of time so vertically you have a larger range up and down right like vertically your range that you're protecting is much larger you know the spread of price would be all the way from 6 000 to 3 000 right so you have vertically a large spread of price that you're protecting horizontally you have a large amount of time that you have developed as opposed to this level here which is greed right this level here is going to be a smaller price that it's holding versus a shorter period of time so this is kind of how it always works with back sides versus the front sides of legs right because of the nature of how they are created so let's do this we're gonna i can move these yes i can i can so so when you have these backside of the legs you can expect larger bounces from them because they are representing a bigger part of the charts so so like if you were to simply just do the very basic ta here that we do and uh you marked the weekly and then let's go and mark the daily which would be right here come on come on right again yes right there perfect you mark the uh the weekly and the daily and you have reactions appropriate to those like you hit the the weekly here you're gonna have uh you know a decent sized bounce like you've got a 20 bounce here 18 or you know i guess it would be uh magnet tool always messes us up almost 21 percent here right like 20 20 we'll just call 20 you have 20 off the back side of the leg you hit the next level you have the very much the same thing you have an even larger reaction when you start going off to the front sides of these legs they are moves of strength of greed not strength and the reason why i call them strength versus greed because these will have strong bounces that makes them very strong levels they are very strong reactions they are very parts of the chart that are holding up the strength of the entirety of the chart like it's basically holding up the entire bottom of of the chart right when you hit a level like this you need to break it over time so so right now if we were to take these off the difference here is this is greedy this is going to be the greediest price in the move and even greedier would be you know a price down here would be even greedier than than this piece here you see you need to hold them over longer periods of time like they're not moments where you have an instant bounce an instant bounce and and here so fine you're gonna have a bounce on day one but you're not gonna bounce off this and rip up to some kind of crazy levels up here it's just not realistic what you are gonna do is you are gonna use them to hold through time to go and try to break their moves and it's going to be greediest point and that's why i call these greedy levels and i call these strong levels because these are going to have strong bounces because of what they represent on the charts as to where these are going to have greedy responses people are going to go after them and if they hold for long enough it's going to be the best price before you actually have the break of a move just just like it would have been right here right like you have the greediest parts of moves right so you know you start to break some of these trend cycles like this like you have this one here to here you're gonna break this trend cycle and it's going to create the same thing the origin but you notice how there's not a crazy bounce right like you're gonna create whatever origin is in here whatever origin you made i believe it's right around that price there and it's going to cycle through the move but it's off of a greedy point right like it's off of the front side of the lake it's not off the back side which was here if it was off the back side of the lake yeah okay you're going to have a you know a larger bounce if it's off the front side of the lake which is you know even in this case i believe it was just actually it hit trend it didn't even hit the backside of like it hit trend yeah because trend is created right here to here right so so it actually hits trend here you're going to have you know a greedy part of this move and it's going to hold through trends we can put this to here and we can even put this to here which was the current part of the move comma yeah like any whole level is going to give you a reaction like look at today right but again also look at how much we lost to get to this point like we're up you know seven percent right now but like look look at how much we lost over the course of past few weeks we've lost 40 percent of price over over not even the past few we're actually only talking about one week of action we've lost 40 percent of price so yeah are we gonna have a ten percent bounce sure but if this was catching the back side of leg it probably would have like a thirty forty percent bounce it would have been something like this it would have been something where you catch a backside of leg and you just go straight up right like this it would have it would have been exactly that and i believe that actually caught this level right here which is the back side of the leg an untested back side of the leg so so it catches this level and then it has a 40 reaction up this is the difference because it's you know in time and space it's holding larger pieces of the move so these back sides of the legs are points of strength which will hold up the larger hemisphere of the move that's vertically and horizontally representing a larger part of your charts right the front sides are giving you points where it's a it's a payoff it's going to be the best price if it holds so that's why i call them greedy because you're going up to the greediest price because if it holds the greediest price is going to to hold and it's going to hold like this until it gets to that point and then it will you know that's where you would buy just just just like right here and and then it takes a large traverse up right the difference between strength and greed strength will give you instant money greed will give you the most amount of money but only if it's played right you see what i mean strength we can give you a lot of money all the time because there's strong reactions off big levels back sides of the legs untested levels this and that all this information that we've looked at even even in here you know even as we we looked in here and saw these bounces here it was the same thing strength versus greed if if the greedy level which is the best price is hit it has to hold that's the difference and and then so so that's what we see in altcoin in in everything like we see that in all stocks we see hold levels get hit over time right you see hold levels get hit and they create an accumulation cycle and then they move up when they break trend like this is what we always see right like it just go to one random coin that i did recently and it was like yeah we'll look at the accumulation cycle on this thing of course this thing moved up to 800 sats when when we were here it hit it's whole level this is the same thing across all stocks it doesn't matter what stock you're in right you hit your your hold level which is the greedy level right here you didn't hold the back side of the leg which was here so this is the back side of the leg right here i mean suppose it's an origin level right here that's fine this is still the back side this is all the back side it's just a different time and it hits the back side and has an instant three day bounce right so you know strength versus hitting a hold level and then trying to break trends and having a larger reaction you see what i mean let's measure this you know strength and you know a few days later and you know 30 40 percent whatever it is here now you hit a greedy level which is going to be the best price which is the front side of the leg right here and you hit the best price and you hold it and it you know starts to break all of its trends and levels and and so then it has its move and you know from the hole to here you have 200 because it's going to be a bigger move but it's harder to develop the move because it has to trend it has to accumulation cycle it has to break trends it has to continuously hold its move so it has to find a base and create all these things right like it had to have done this it had to create this to this right here which actually breaks down to here and then this one to from from here to here had to hold so it has to create all these other data points associated with it right like it had to create this right here like this and and hold this part of the move right so it had to create this hold that break the local origins break all of its cycles and then once it's done all that it's just clear to fly out of its mind and then ended you know it's just two straight days of upwards movement and 170 later and you know but that's the difference between a greedy level which is which is the front side of a lake it takes time to manifest so you're you're at you're faced with the decision to either buy the best price and hold it if it if it is going to continue to hold or you could just you know maybe cut some time out and buy the hold level so there's you know you're going to make this a different color because we can't even see what's going on anymore just green and kind of a little thicker maybe you know so you have a whole level there and it hits a total level once twice almost three times and holds the level and you know holds its price in distribution to distribution candle right here and then you would have another one right here this right there you have trend against the whole level but you know you have to say okay i'm willing to buy this low price and i have to sit in this thing and wait because i could just simply hit an inverse and fail down right like it could have simply just got to this moment right here could have just got to this moment and and pulled straight back and it did it you know the only difference is that then fine it probably held this right here and it did so it hit its inverse pulled back to its leg and still cycled up that's the difference though because these backside holds are knife catches right like like this is is a knife catch this is hold the move because it's greed it's the greediest price but it's going to be take a substantial amount of more time and break all its levels to move up right so big difference so so you know when you look at bqx and you see this and it's like oh we just hit a track we just had a whole lot when it held really well and oh crap we're coming to all these trends that are creating a cycle and oh we we hit the inverse level but then we actually held the move to pandora's box to go up and break the leg of the move right here so so that's like kind of like you can see what's happening in the move right so strength versus greed is understanding that the back side of hold levels the back sides of legs versus the front sides of legs they have a different meaning so we have to treat them differently uh as as to what we expect in these moves right we have to treat them differently look at this it didn't quite make it it actually didn't make it to this but it didn't make it to the more important level which is up here the 15 minute you know we're gonna see it's it's continuing its uptrend we're we're going to see but what we what we don't want to see is this get broken we definitely don't want to see this get broken you know the the whole levels of the move will protect that from being broken like this will protect it from being broken this over time can't like if it just kind of goes like this and then it goes here like obviously this can't protect the trend because you your your time has run out it could protect the trend right now if it went straight down or even if it went to this moment here running the risk of losing the move right data will show you what's happening right so so like right now we're attempting to hold this and you know hopefully this is uh going to keep cycling up here even right now you'd have you know something very interior like this that we'll try to attempt to hit this again but really we need to create this origin level like we we need to create an origin level here we created a little tiny valley right here it's not enough it's not enough it's just all rejection candles right you have to you have to go after at a minimum this which is actually also rejecting off of this so you know we have no hourly candles we have to go after that you know even even i'd feel safe if it went here then i would feel pretty confident but you know okay fine this is a good start this uh 15 minute level because this actually just even this isn't a valley it's just an inverse level right like this is just i believe it was just an inverse level off over here or something right like the one minute candles i believe there's a little valley here yeah they inversed off this little valley protecting the move which it should like that's where i would have exited my trade too it'd be crazy not to catch this level at 6 45 in the morning by 7 30. you brew a cup of coffee and you just made 900 like like i said you'd be crazy not to so so it's not like this is showing you failure but this is kind of just showing you like yeah okay we gotta get the hell out of this movie brew a cup of coffee and you're up like 15 grand it's like okay you know so people are going to exit here but that doesn't mean the move is broken we have to see the other data points to see where this move is going to try to manifest and and hold we're not there yet we haven't created an origin we haven't created the data to communicate to us that we are trying to create an accumulation cycle so interesting because we kind of talk about accumulation cycles some some pretty basic fot stuff but now you're seeing how they get developed with data points and what it represents and when you can start to make your own assessments and say oh this is breaking up or oh this is breaking down why is it moving up why is it moving down right because this was just nothing but a failed cycle in here so we already broke this down and you can see the failed cycle and now you're almost seeing the same thing get recreated again so if we fail our cycle again guess where we're going it's not time to long yet boys let's create an accumulation cycle and wait for the right trend break to get in and then we can make tons of money because we're at a greedy level right now so there's no rush you can go and scalp all you want you can sit like i've used scalping link this morning and doing those things and you know you took a couple really nice trades on link and that's all fine and dandy you know for now like let's not be going too crazy because what might look like the bottom is still not confirmed any kind of cycling or anything yet what was 10 here is probably like 8 here which is probably six percent here because pandora's boxing right so so you're you're um shortening that funnel you know the the entire time and you know so now your tops and bottoms are you know they might still be pretty good they might be four percent or something but given given the size of this move like here they're four or five percent back here was probably like 13 or something or 16 17 percent jesus this wasn't trend when trend gets touched here this was perfect entry at 9 200 or even looking locally you know if we create these trends here even like let's maybe not do it on a three minute candle um let's do it on a different time frame even even locally like every single time this trend touched it rejected trend is there to to move you down if you tried to buy every single trend break you'd go broke because 19 out of 20 trends are rejecting like here's the uh the the point of trend accumulation right here oops let's move that candle properly here accumulation here or you could even go right here that's fine it's just a little bit of a sharper trend it's the same trend but you know accumulation is going to give you a little bit more of a relevant break not important for today's lesson you could have entered it here which is that's where it gets created so you don't worry about it here but then there's one two three four five six seven tries to break still eight nine and then it goes over and then it still fails trend is there to support the direction of the price if you were to buy every single trend break like this is how people trade they try to buy trend breaks you're gonna go broke trends are are there to make you fail moves they're they're not there to try to break people playing trend breaks are losing are losing traders they will lose money like constantly over time oh yeah short trend it's your best entry trend is always your best entry trend is like oh yeah man best entry like look even here trend that gets created best entry hello like this is a really good entry here you see trend is getting respected it's not breaking hey guess where we're going we're going down uh you know when we come up to this trend again we're not going through it i can promise you that you come to this trend you better be watching and being ready to click that short button because it's time to like you know get some get some juice on this like it's it's going to reject the trends reject that's what they do over time like 19 out of 20 times trend reject trend rejects if if you had a a bot that was programmed to trade trends and all you ever did was tell it to trade a hundred dollars on the touch every trend it would have 19 out of 20 successful trades all day long or or 9 out of 10. you know what i mean so like oh yeah man trends are beautiful beautiful beautiful things