so we look at this right off the bat we got a rare massive thing for the stock market that has something to do with the government okay so there's this development here on basically the Trump administration Trump specifically is trying to push through this thing which is money accounts for growth in advancement or MAGA accounts they call them okay which would seed index fund accounts with $1,000 in government funds for US citizens born between January 1st 2025 and December 31st 2028 now if this program does start my guess is it will probably be continued for future presidents as well whether they're Republican or Democrat but that's if this gets through right the tax deferred accounts which track the overall US stock market allow additional contributions of up to $5,000 per year the seed money will be funded by the Treasury Department and controlled by the child's guardians parents funds can can be distributed once the beneficiary turns 18 years old now couple things here before we get in the good of this one this could get blocked it could get blocked this is not a guarantee to go through it's looking decent I would say right now but it might still get blocked second thing is okay the the the government gives the thousands to the kids right in this fund uh there's also potential the parents never contribute anything to it so do keep that in mind okay but here's a deal okay Dell came out today michael Dell came out and he said that if the government does this essentially Dell will then match what the government does so they would then put $1,000 in this fund for every of their employees that has a kit essentially okay and so then you got a,000 going into the stock market from the government you got another thousand going in for a company like Dell if this ends up going through right which is pretty substantial also Uber CEO DAR you know is for this goldman Sachs David Solomon was there as well today he's very excited about it right now based upon this you know $1,000 times 3.6 6 million children are born a year roughly it's about $3.6 billion a year of inflow to the stock market now keep in mind $3.6 billion in government terms is actually not a big number it's not like this is some budget blowing like oh my gosh like this they're going to blow up the budget with this like no like $3.6 billion sadly enough for the government in this day and age is just a rounding error to be honest this would just be a rounding area which is why I think it has a pretty decent probability of going through right but it would be $3.6 billion a year of inflow right that it's basically kind of like locked away it's basically locked away until the kid turns 18 right now keep in mind my guess is if this does go through and they execute it well which keep in mind when the government's involved it might not be executed well but let's say it is executed well i think there's a lot of parents grandparents and companies that will add a lot of money to uh the kids you know funds here right especially if they do it in a way that makes it very easy for them to add capital we know grandparents love to give money when you know their grandchildren are born right and so you know it was very common i know at least in you know my family the grandparents usually always gave a savings bond to all the kids born keep in mind I was born in the 80s you know a lot of my cousins were all born in the 80s or the '9s so savings bonds were like huge and so every time you know a new grandkid was born you know some got like $1,000 of savings bonds some of the earlier kids somebody like myself I think I got either $100 or $250 in in government savings bonds so you know and of course that was more money back in those days than it is today right but yeah I could see a lot of companies adding to this grandparents parents things like that so it would be a lot more money to inflow into the stock market overall every single year right because once again these kids won't be able to touch this money till they're 18 now that also brings me to a bigger point here that it's a fascination for people to kind of hope the S&P 500 trades at like you know that 10 to 15 range PE ratios right and and I just got to say get used to seeing 20 plus PE ratios for years and years to go in the stock market that I'm showing you the past 30 years the past three decades of where P ratios have been what do we see consistently the past three decades we see P ratios 20 plus right now with the stock market being easier than ever to invest into attracting more capital than ever including even likely government capital now at this point in time right at the end of the day you just have to get used to the fact that P ratios are going to be 20 plus outside of some insane crash in the short term or if interest rates go to like 10 20% or something like that outside of those scenarios like it's going to be very common over the coming decades to expect what you've been seeing honestly for the last several decades which is P ratios of 20 plus and so you just got to get used to it right now additionally US stocks remain the place to be and here's why and here's how most people look at these other alternatives cuz you got to think do you put money in US stocks or do you put money in something else okay well what do you what do you have options to bitcoin some you know a very select few love Bitcoin they're happy to invest as much as they can in Bitcoin right other people are like I don't trust that at all i wouldn't stick my enemy's money in Bitcoin right other people are like I trust a little bit i'll put a little bit of capital into Bitcoin right but the masses no no Bitcoin is not their thing right gold the masses don't like gold it's a sleepy asset look at its performance over the past you know 15 20 years it's a sleepy asset the last year has been really good in gold or at least the last 6 to 12 months been really good in gold but for the most part gold's sleepy right silver you could invest in silver people say why would I invest in silver i'll just buy gold right that's what a lot the masses kind of say international stocks international stocks is just a fancy way of saying you want to underperform the stock market in the US that's all it is man and so the masses kind of look at international stocks like okay so I could buy a bunch of stocks I don't even you know use or even know these companies and I'm going to likely make less money um no I'll stick to US stocks thank you very much right and then there's real estate the problem with real estate is people stress about that right if you want to real estate invest people are like "That sounds complicated." There's stress involved with that things going on with the property they're like "That sounds like work that sounds like work." And then people say you know in a in a lot of cities you can't even make any good money on real estate investing right now i'm serious like if you look at many of the big cities whatever you would pay for a mortgage payment on a property you'd make no money right now you might even lose money on a monthto-month basis so real estate is just people are like "No no no." So at the end of the day the place to be remains United States stock market and that's from a global perspective because of all those issues that other things have right all righty next up here Google McDougall so huge weekend for Google it was in the news everywhere because of what happened in LA right and essentially this was this kind of marked like the epicenter of what was going on in LA this weekend over the whole ICE crackdowns and all that stuff right and people are pushing back against that some people are really mad uh some people are happy at the the ice crackdowns you know you got people on both sides and so some people are happy some people are very upset clearly right um and so Whimos were being burned left and right i mean not left and right there was a few Whimos burned it's not like there was like 600 Whimos taken out no no it was like a few right and so roughly the dollar amount that they said was affected was around $600,000 of cars was burned right now here's the thing this was like at least $100 million in free marketing in my opinion like you couldn't have you couldn't have spent enough money to generate this sort of publicity for Whimo whimo looks like the victim in the end right cuz they had nothing to do with this self-driving cars driving around and meanwhile they're the subject of conversation all weekend that these self-driving Whimos were all you know several of them were burned this weekend right so they look like the victim and it just got them massive publicity so people that never even heard of Whimo we're talking about Whimo this weekend like the amount of people that never heard of Whimo before are like now well aware that these Whimos exist and they have no drivers inside and they're like oh that's that's interesting and it happen these vehicles are in LA That's that's that's an interesting thing right so I would say this is a minimum bare minimum of $100 million in free marketing so $600,000 of cars was burned the estimate is which by the way that might even be covered by insurance it might not even come out of Google's pocket which $600,000 that's probably what Google makes per second i mean it's like ridiculous it's like crazy right it's nothing for Google but hundred hundred million if not hundreds of millions of dollars of free marketing I think that's worth it right now additionally keep in mind Google's in a state right now with Whimo where they're expanding to many cities across the United States and will be expanding to many cities across the United States so any publicity they can get you know especially when it's not bad publicity cuz this is it's not their fault their cars got burnt right uh it's just people did that right to to send a message about something that had nothing to do with Whimo just to be quite frank but the moral of the story is here right is you know they need as much attention as they can get as they get scaled and as they get expanded across the United States over the coming years and it's very important that they brand themselves as the player in self-driving vehicles right that they actually have them in the market right now you can take rides in these now and not in like you know years from now or something like that right hey I want to thank you so much for watching that clip here today hey I hope you really enjoyed that one what you're looking at right now is 1,000x stocks.com 10,000x does not just show you a billion different metrics that are completely irrelevant it's curated mandatory metrics advanced metrics curated for long-term investors not for traders so you can understand a company on the highest level possible how it operates and most importantly making judgments on whether you want to invest capital into a company or not understanding the upside the downside with companies is that company worth our investments or shall we keep our hands away so how you can access thousandx.com is you can go to the description area of this video or you can go to 1000xstocks.com apply for access to the service wilson on stocks market headwinds in the Trump tax bill very noisy and uncertain and I think you know this has been the case for the whole year our our view as you know has been a bit different we came in thinking the first half would be tougher and the rate of change on a lot of things like earnings revisions and some of the headline would be negative um and in fact that what we think happens that vi that all got priced in the week after liberation day right it was this it was violent it was a deleveraging and so now as we look at the data itself it's all inflected higher and so you know don't ignore everything but ignoring the headlines is probably a good strategy and just focus on the the data has turned up for the most part and and I think you know I don't know where the trade negotiations are going nobody does but I think it's very unlikely we're going to go back to where we were you know a month and a half ago like we bottomed in terms of the the pain of that initial you know announcement and how bad those tariffs were so unless it really reescalates in a negative fashion I don't think the trade issues is even going to be enough to kind of take the momentum out of this market right now you know what the bare view sounds like they would say that maybe some of the data some of the earnings we've seen have been flattered by pull forward and we'll get the bill for that later this summer do you think we're priced for that kind of slowdown that weakness we could see in the summer months that's probably right and we had that view too there was a pull forward in Q1 q&a being better than it feared because you know the the numbers came down a bunch i think the second quarter though is expected now to be weaker so that's going to be the key i think the biggest risk for the market is going to probably be either rates as we've talked about in the past you know north of 4 and a half% or we do go in earning season it's not as good as you know people were hoping for and we have maybe a 5 to 7% correction but that's not what people kind of want people want a 10 you know another 10 to 15% draw down to get you know better to get more exposure and I just don't think you're going to get that i mean I've I've seen this a million times you you want it but you're just going to have to have a shorter trigger finger well you had seen retail largely buying the dip that that's who participated when you got those ruptures in April if we're not going to get dips like that anymore what is the willingness of institutions to continue to put money to work right now especially they didn't even buy the past dips we saw yeah I think institutions have re-risked but they there's still more to go the one the area I think that that you have to watch is the is the systematic strategies the CTAs that that price momentum money we saw almost $500 billion of deleveraging in that period of sort of early March through midappril and they've re-risked maybe 30 40% of that so that's another bid that's sort of it's not fundamentally driven it's just price momentum so that's that's going to be kind of the underlying bid and then I think you know most institutions have re-risk but one thing I haven't talked about yet is it's people are still making the quality bet and that and we agree with that meaning this isn't a beginning of a new cycle it's once again an extension of the existing cycle and the Fed's probably going to be cutting at some point later this year early next year and that that really behooves the large cap quality equities does it behoove companies specifically who can also wait out some of the tariff uncertainty because this has been a big part of the narrative right no one's making decisions capex is largely stalled unless you're tech is there an element where even though we don't have tariffs resolved that you get companies who just get on with it and start to put capital to work yeah they got to run a business and and that's another reason why large cap quality businesses can do this they can mitigate some of these you know risks whether it's tariffs whether it's you know maybe the government cutting back on certain types of spending and one of the things that is getting through this tax bill that I think is still underappreciated is the tax incentives for capex and R&D spending we think that could add 3 to 5% to earnings growth or cash earnings for these large multinationals that's a big tailwind in addition to the weaker dollar so there's just a lot of tailwinds I see from an earnings standpoint and this is almost a perfect environment to climb the wall of worry because the the economic data the political geopolitical data is messy it's noisy it's scary sometimes but as long as the revision factors for earnings are heading north it's just hard for stocks to go down when you say capex I just think of a handful of tech companies do you think it goes beyond just tech leadership oh absolutely i think this is about capital goods i think this is not just about AI capex also one thing to just keep in mind the IT capex that's been good the last several years has really been concentrated just in AI okay the the traditional kind of upgrades you see in the enterprise and in the household have not been happening because there was a giant pull forward remember in 2020 and 2021 for work from home so if you actually look at the IT capex cycle from 22 to 24 it was kind of a soft recession and that's another part of our thesis we've been going through these rolling recessions and and look to me the big the big catalyst to keep in mind for a broadening out is going to be when the Fed starts to signal they're more doubbish i don't know when that's going to be but my guess is sometime in the third quarter they're going to start to signal that and that's when you're going to get a more broadening out to the lower quality parts of the market does the why matter do we need it because inflation is coming in or is it going to be because the labor market is cracking well I mean look last fall it was both right the labor market was cracking last summer as soon as they signaled they were ready to step in the market went up anyway so that's why I mean I actually think a recession if we finally get the you know broad recession labor cycle i don't think the equity markets are going anywhere near the April lows because the Fed will be able to act quickly and we're like Pavlovian right and if retail was buying when the Fed wasn't even cutting if they are cutting there's going to be a big bid there so look there's always risks in the market there's always something to be worried about there's always things to be bearish on and there's things to be bullish on and that's our job and I think you know this year we've navigated that pretty well being in the right places and I think we're going to continue to have to shift what we want to own not so much how much you want to own so to push back against his points there you know when we talk about the Fed going to their next cut cycle there's two risks that come along with that that everybody has to understand here okay one when the Fed signals they're about to do another cut cycle some people could look at that and they say "Oh boy you know we're going into recession that's why they're cutting." Right now that could be true that could be false we don't know but the moral of the story is there's definitely a lot of worries that happen when the Fed starts to cut like that and people start saying "You know what like recession recession and then and then people start saying how big's a recession going to be right because you don't know like a recession could last a few quarters a recession could last a whole year a recession could last two years so you don't know how far how deep you don't know how high unemployment rate you don't know any of that it's just a scary time whenever you're going in cuz you're like crap we don't know like it's going on a roller coaster ride and you don't know uh where the bottom is second risk here that we already witnessed this again you know what was that last year is if the Fed starts cutting you could hopefully we don't see this but you could see the 10-year spike again right and you could see bonds in general spike because they're worried about longer run inflation expectations if that happens that could be a scary moment for the stock market for sure if all of a sudden that 10 year starts popping again and all the bonds in general and all the treasuries in general start popping like so you know that's just something to kind of keep in mind in regards to the whole you know it's not just only good outcomes if the Fed enters their next cut cycle here in the next few months it you know could be some scary that comes along with that acknowledge the one thing that could be a headwind for equities is interest rates you wrote about it over the weekend what is it about 450 that's challenging to this equity market because based on the rally we've seen over the past few weeks you don't see much of a challenge well it stabilized at 450 so we've identified this level like almost 2 years ago and it it's been it's like a charm i mean it as soon as you cross 450 on the upside the correlation between stocks and rates goes negative and vice versa now I do think that we we kind of went to 470 in the April period and then they calmed down again i think the market is getting comfortable that they have enough tools because you know the Treasury Secretary has talked about that to keep it 450 or below if they need to and I think we talked about this last time I was here 475 is like the worst place because that's where markets get really nervous 5% I actually get bullish because then I know that they're going to come and intervene with either liquidity injections or they're going to use these other tools that the Treasury Secretaries talked about so we're you know we're we're optimistic that that could be managed and in other words that risk could be a risk for five or 7% but ultimately that risk will get managed do you get clients asking you now about the debt auctions asking the equity strategist about the debt auctions that take place in the week well they don't really ask the equity folks but I mean people do ask about it for sure i mean and once again we we have seen many auctions soft auctions for the last two or three years we've seen it seen this occur and then they get control of it again I I don't want to dismiss the risk from the back end of the market that is still to me the the risk i mean it's the risk not only for markets it's the it's a risk for the US like we we have too much debt and this is a focus and if we don't I mean ultimately if we don't you know cut the budget over time like and maybe the market is now giving them a lead like okay we'll give you 12 months you know but if we don't get serious about you know budget reconciliation and actually reducing the size of the budget over time this is an issue that's going to stay with us yeah now when it comes to the tax cuts and all of that right which hopefully that bill you know uh is finished off rather soon but it's important for everybody to understand when it comes to the tax cuts and all that right when does that really start to positively affect the consumer positively start to affect the business cycle and all those things the answer is it doesn't even start to until you know let's call it 2026 but that's like the start the real effects positively will be in 2027 okay in terms of when it really trickles down in the consumer and then maybe people start getting big refunds and things like that because they paid in too much during 2026 because they were focused on past tax rates and those sorts of things so you're going to get some positive effect in 26 but you'll just get much more positive effect in 2027 2028 and you know however long those are those are in for and so just keep that in mind you know if you think like that's going to get passed and right away it's going to mean like great things for the economy not no it's going to take time because you have to have a whole tax cycle to to get into that okay so just something something to keep in mind there hey I want to thank you so much for watching that clip here today i hope you really enjoyed that one what you're looking at right now is 1,000x stocks.com 1000x does not just show you a billion different metrics that are completely irrelevant it's curated mandatory metrics advanced metrics curated it for long-term investors not for traders so you can understand a company on the highest level possible how it operates and most importantly making judgments on whether you want to invest capital into a company or not understanding the upside the downside with companies is that company worth our investments or shall we keep our hands away so how you can access thousandx.com is you can go to the description area of this video or you can go to 1000xstocks.com apply for access to the service all righty let's go ahead and react to 139,000 jobs created on non-farm payrolls for the month of May a smidge higher than we were expecting and in the rearview mirror well there are some revisions we lose 95,000 over the last two months all right let's proceed now but the hold your horses for just a moment that's a that's a big revision down 95,000 you know revised down in the last you know what did they say there uh feel like I heard the TV all uh in the last two months that's a big number that's a big employment rate which remains at 4.2% if we look at the earnings from a month-over-month perspective it comes in up 4/10 up 410 much better than expected we're looking for up 3/10 in the rearview mirror at least up to this point I don't see revisions up 4/10 uh that would equal January of this year which was the best read to find a higher read you're back in August of last year now let's look at average hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis hotter than expected 3.9 that's a couple of ten better we're looking for one/tenth higher than the 3.8 in the rearview mirror that equals the first two months of the year which were the highest to find a higher number you're going to de of last year when it was 4% average uh weekly hours worked we want to always pay close attention to this uh 34.3 is wild it's the rearview mirror it's the windshield it's what we arrived at this uh time around this month and that means we have three 34.3s in a row which is building it was 34.1 and 34.2 and Jan and Feb respectively labor force participation rate always a welcoming event we want to bring more people in it comes in at 62.4 this is a miss this is the first real miss that's a couple ten light uh both in the rearview mirror and against expectations it equals the lightest read of the year which was in February to find a lower number you're going all the way back to the last month of 2022 and finally drum roll please uh we're going to look at what I call U6 the underemployment rate because the actual employment rate I already gave you at 4.2 is considered the U3 so U6 comes in at 7.8 that means that we have backto back 7.8s the lowest read was 7.5 that was January of this year interest rates are moving up listen 139,000 isn't off thecharts strong but it's stronger than the market was looking for and even though you can say that we're losing a bit of steam on job creation what you can say is that you cannot say that it's happening quickly and you cannot say it isn't accompanied by a mixed bag of other economic fundamentals some point to slower glide path some point to better glide path uh interest rates on the week and this is important a 2-year closed at 390 last week so we're basically up close to six basis points a 10-year closed at 441 last week it's basically up two basis points pre-opening equities they like this number back to you yeah and obviously you can see a lot of stocks up here today very nicely shopify up 5 plus% Palanteer up 5 plus% Fubo up uh Google up around 3% here today uh SoFi's up over 3% Amazon Amazing Z's up 2 plus% uh Cheesecakes over 57 meta's getting close to 700 again uh this was a perfect honestly perfect jobs number and let me explain why this was literally as as good as it could be for the situation we're in right now this jobs number came in a little better than expected so that takes the whole fear around like oh we're going into recession off the table right you know um doesn't mean recession can't come 6 months from now 12 months from now 18 months from now 24 months from now 36 months from now but if anybody's trying to bet that oh we're going in recession right now it's not showing so that takes that off the table but it's also perfect from the perspective of it's not some in super super strong number that would make you say "Oh the Feds should keep rates where they're at." If you're the Fed you could look at this and you can say "Well yeah you know a little better than expected but this isn't a super strong number." And we're staying way restrictive you look at where CPI is at look where Fed funds rate at you're way restrictive right now and so it it's creating a you know we can call it an economy that is doing okay but it's not like it's super strong right now it's not like this is some you know banger numbers and you got you know 200,000 300,000 plus jobs coming in like you would in a super strong times right