hello everybody welcome to roller coaster day part i don't know up down mean reversion craziness but the question that everybody has today is where is the support is the bull market over are we just going to chop sideways well I got some good news and I got some bad news i got some key support levels and some key history that was made and let's get into the story i want to thank well some people love the volatility in fact if you can time the volatility well with per it's actually a dream come true but it's also a very risky game to play anyway hello every Tesla K8 Sea Donlay and everybody else here from all over the world and I am cold and the whole gang thank you all for coming uh let's get into the story and here I am in the top left corner so you can see me this story is called Key Support and of course shout out to everybody in Patreon and uh from music lover X21 uh yeah we we did buy a lot of the dips and uh we've been waiting for quite some time for that in fact I got into Nvidia for the first time since 2022 again it was so cheap anyway uh music lover X21 following James i got some Nvidia yesterday and my Patreon paid for the next few years talk about value of money woohoo well done for having the courage to jump in today we're going to talk about a bit of Bitcoin news some crazy things that are happening how to avoid making an error with Bitcoin we'll look at some Bitcoin miner valuations some stunning data there and a lot of onchain and key levels of support let's get into the news first to some fun things happening here one you know we talk I mean talk a lot about payments stable coins etc being an absolutely key part of all things crypto but this news was very interesting mastercard is the second biggest credit card company in the world and they just partnered with Kraken and what's interesting about this they partnered with Kraken across the UK and Europe to expand Bitcoin adoption and they work with 150 million retailers and the key thing about this though is kind of fascinating it will enable retailers to receive Bitcoin as a payment and maybe stack Bitcoin at the same time you know a lot of times uh for years people always ask me would you like to get paid rent in Bitcoin the answer is hell yeah that'd be awesome but now maybe retailers can be on the receiving end through Kraken payments in Bitcoin instead of melting fiat so that is huge news and shout out to everybody in the UK and Europe good news for them and this is also kind of interesting and I am always torn and perplexed by this stuff so in the US there's a thing called the FOYA Freedom of Information Act and it allows you to petition the government to get access to secret records apparently well not necessarily top secret but things that are kind of obfuscated by the government and met a law man who is a crypto attorney um wants he believes that the US government knows the identity of Satoshi and he wants to basically sue the government for information to release the actual name and identity of the Bitcoin creator which has been a mystery since 2009 i personally would rather that it stays a mystery it makes it much more exciting i don't know why and much respect to metal man brilliant brilliant crypto attorney but at the same time let sleeping dogs lie let him be a mystery anyway odds are the government doesn't know who he is so it could all be for nothing so that was kind of interesting too and this one is kind of so funny people make mistakes all the time with crypto remember if you are playing with crypto and with wallets and with transfers you are your own bank there is no help desk and this was kind of a a fascinating story a Bitcoin user mistakenly paid 3/4 of a Bitcoin in transaction fees due to perhaps we're not sure a panic induced replace by fee which isn't called an RBF error and the incident occurred 30 minutes after midnight yesterday and uh the user then sent a second transaction attempt so I'm not sure exactly what happened but the initial transaction was48 bitcoin about 40k to a target address and then a 0.2 bitcoin another 16 17 $18,000 as a change error and that's fees of total totaling about 60k now we're not sure exactly what happened but maybe you can do a couple of things uh with your transaction shark lover good to see you buddy thank you so much you have a manual settings in your wallet that can lead to costly mistakes especially if you're uninformed and maybe people got screwed up with their decimals maybe he meant 30.56 sats but fingers maybe wrote 305,692 sats and this really underscores the importance of double-checking triple checking transactions and always always it's real simple always test with a tiny amount first always and be careful with your decimal points in life uh again uh the transaction was worth less than the fees paid which is kind of sad so be careful out there with your wallets remember you are your own bank and let's get into the charts and let's talk about support and resistance levels and potential targets of where we could go criticalis in the sheets saluti um Bitcoin saw the largest long liquidation ever we saw a dip dip down to 74K and then a very quick rebound and that liquidated 7,500 in Bitcoin longs which is by my calculations at the time approximately $600 million that is crazy again it was very volatile on April 6th and then how day is today 10th then volatility 7th 8th and a huge rebound yesterday and then a little dip again today i mean for the hundth time be careful with leverage okay you will be hunted you will be hunted now the question is to what level could you be hunted to let's look at a couple of key things first of all we did have the second largest candle ever some people call them mega candles i call them omega candle an Omega candle typically is $10,000 this was a dream since 2017 to see a $10,000 candle we technically got to the first one ever if you measure from the bottom of the candle to the top which includes the wick to the downside and to the upside we had a 10,000 candle uh a few months ago few weeks ago but the other thing that's fascinating to see here is the volume was huge we thought everybody in Bitcoin was sleeping and there's no activity on chain but boy when it comes to extreme volatility in comes the volume high trading volume huge price movements yesterday we had 9k swing indicating again the investors are there but they're sitting on the sidelines and the good thing about this too is this suggests a bullish sentiment in the market particularly signaling the reversal or uptrend in Bitcoin after this typical we're in the hyperbolic session of the bull run the last 20% where things get crazy and we are seeing that craziness happen and again these candles are a positive indicator leading to increased volatility and trading opportunities and more attraction to Bitcoin too so excellent news by the way I'm early today cuz I've got to record Cyber Bulls later that will be published on this channel tomorrow for those people who are interested in AI and disruption and Tesla which has also been extremely volatile anyway that's the mega omega candle session now another crazy news too a realized cap is a cool factor basically that calculates exactly how much money basically is coming into the actual network and if this is from the team at glass node what they did was they anchored the bottom of the Bitcoin market in 2022 which was triggered by the collapse of FTX and they quantified the magnitude of capital absorbed by Bitcoin and Ethereum since the cycle low okay this is called the realized cap and the realized cap basically added $468 billion it went from 42 billion to 870 billion you can see here on the chart and that's up 117% which is great now we compare that to Ethereum the realized cap increased from 183 billion to 244 billion only adding 61 billion about 30% so it's a lot less for Ethereum and that also explains you know follow the money when you see capital flowing into an asset price goes up when you see less capital flowing into another asset price does not go up as much it's not hard and the disparity in these capital inflows at least underscores why these assets have very diverging performance since 2023 okay small inflows small results big inflows big results and we'll see there's other stuff going on with Bitcoin which isn't that positive uh we'll talk about in a minute but yet these are some of the key levels now speaking of key levels short-term holder cost basis is a critical benchmark for assessing market momentum especially during uptrends and downtrends and right now the short-term holder cost basis are at 93,000 that's the short-term holder realized price that's what the average person that holds Bitcoin less than 155 days the price they paid for Bitcoin so the majority everybody's pretty much underwater on Bitcoin right now until it gets back above 93K now what some people do as well they calculate the current short-term holder cost basis 93K with the upper and lower bounds established at 131K which is one standard deviation and 72K which is minus one standard deviation so the question is why is this important well typically typically historically we rarely dip down by two minus one standard deviation and at this level here that would be $72,000 so if you're asking for the floor in this bull run it's 72k we got to 74,500 so we got within 2.5 grand of that yellow support level there and the question is where will we go top of the bull run well typically it's at least one standard deviation above which means 131K and that could be our bull run target who knows this time could be different this is based on history um but these are important levels to look at too and of course the middle of the road level is 93K that's where we should gravitate towards sooner or later and then if there's a bit of froth in the market a lot of money flowing in we could pop up to 130K depending on what happens but a key thing as well that's also very important to look at is what's happening with this next chart here these are the Bitcoin technical pricing models i did touch on the 365day moving average yesterday 76K 75K depending how you measure it we bounced clean off that twice which is important and we've bounced four times off of that level in the past three years which is important one to look at too so if you want to lump some DCA into Bitcoin and you still believe there is a Bitcoin bull market on boy you hit that 365day moving average you know forget it that's that's a good place to buy zeno thank you so much for coming and then you see here the 200 day moving average is at 87K which is a little bit different from the 93k here which is short-term realized price and then the 111day moving average this called PI cycle which is 93K which coincidentally is exactly the shortterm holder realized price again mad confluence here ladies and gentlemen so watch these levels are we going to get above the 111day yes we will yes we will just need to be patient and wait for the big money to come in now other stuff that's important to look at is what's happening out there in the market so we do have a lot of the thing I care about here is just huge losses record liquidations of longs but we now see signs of seller exhaustion which is very very important to look at too because the scale of recent losses are on the scale of the largest if not the largest capitulation events in the history of Bitcoin everybody question is how exhausted are the sellers well this chart here tells you this is the saturated losses basically it tells you the seller exhaustion is nigh the people that wanted to sell have sold their bags are gone as I said many times before if you look at the long-term holders and the short-term holders the tourists that jump in now they don't really matter but they're also they've if they didn't sell at 745 they're not selling from here on in they're going to hold and get back to their cost basis but the long-term holders typically only sell approximately 40% of their bag maybe a little bit more but again that's also done we've covered that a few times this year so far so seller exhaustion is there the problem is we don't have the money coming in yet there is some select stacking happening but not the level we need to push the price up higher yet and the problem is the money is on the sidelines because the tword no not that tword tariffs have everybody sitting on the sidelines but there's 7 trillion on the sidelines in the United States in money market accounts when the rates come down which they will come down May June they're coming down 65% chance there will be a rate cut and probably four or five this year then people will discover hm I'm not getting any return on my money so I'm going to go risk on and some of that will be deployed and also the flight to safety around the world uh these tariffs that are in place by the way are wreaking havoc i saw a video out of mainland China yesterday factories are idled now orders have stopped you think the US is in a bad way China's way worse i anticipate a capitulation over there xi may play hard ball but the will of the people hopefully the dictator listens to the will of the people will uh come back anyway enough geopolitics for now let's talk about miners for a second this is one of the key things i've seen very very bizarre stuff happening with the miners and miners have gotten a lot more effective and efficient i've seen that with all the data we look at in a mining video is coming it just takes a lot of hours to do uh there is improved mining technology that's why we hit one zet a hash yesterday in hash rate and profit margins are crazy miners have never been so profitable again assuming Bitcoin's above 70K they are making bank right now and the market caps of these miners are in the toilet considering how much money they make you know we have some crazy stats here that you know show you exactly what they are like like the NAV premium for Marathon is 4% okay if you are investing a dollar in Marathon you're getting 96 cents in Bitcoin and they have $2.5 billion in assets that you get pretty much for free that is crazy and their huddle bag keeps on growing some of the miners had to basically sell their bags they weren't able to get into the Treasury strategy but as it shows miners aren't able to pull off that Treasury strategy because people are worried and people are very concerned about will will the miners ever recover and this bull season is extremely difficult for miners and um I always warn people never have more than 5% in miners never ever it's cutthroat business you speculate you buy them in the the bear and then you write them up and then you take profit but for those people who went all in on miners they are hurting right now so heart goes out to them listen to the rules allocations matter they're absolutely key in investing probably the most important thing and Bitcoin miners and the market performance so far year on year last 365 days talking about 365 days charts lines moving averages lately miners are down 25% some are down a lot more than that some have done okay and Bitcoin yearon year is up 17% so if we go back to April 2024 Bitcoin's only up 17% which is not a lot not your typical bull run the returns are definitely diminishing will we get one last gasp i think so i hope so we'll see anyway hang tough everybody and this is a cool chart from Ecoinometrics of the actual results blue are the average of the miners and Bitcoin is in orange you can see Bitcoin was up as high as 50% over the last you know 360 days or whatever and then it has fallen back down again all markets are nervous hey Mike good to see you but the miners after about 6 months of the last year up until between April and December or November miners were up 94% on average they' all doubled which was great and then they got hit hard so we did have that posth having pump well first posth having dip then the posth having pump and everything else but the key message here I'm trying to get across is timing miners is critical absolutely critical ladies and gentlemen now other thing that's kind of weak total weak sauce is the ETFs nobody is touching these ETFs again this is completely reflective of how all the money is on the sidelines Nobody's going risk on till they get clarity as to what's happening with the TE's that we covered already and so far uh since April we had one positive day the rest down 100 million 300 million 200 million a day so nothing too drastic like we saw back in Feb early early March but still it's definitely not good out there and final cool chart of the day is shout out to Oz Crypto i thought this was very profound this is going back to 2014 we've had four major scares out there okay five four four yeah we had the deflation scare back in 2015 C19 in March 2020 then the Asia hit in 2024 and now we got the tariff hit in 2025 now what do we see in common here the overall trend is up these are dips bull market is not over we shall see where we go next but odds are we mean revert to the upside and the trend is intact so that is the story for today ladies and gentlemen i hope you enjoy the video don't forget to hit the like and subscribe if you enjoy this type of content uh I'll be on tomorrow morning with Cyber Bulls talking AI robots what's coming what's off the checklist what's on the checklist it's going to be a good video and that'll be out early morning tomorrow around 6 or 7 a.m thank you Sean Donley thank you TND Tesla thank you K8 Chaotic Coder everybody hang tough we We are not out of the woods i forgot to even look at the Bitcoin price yeah Bitcoin is actually Yeah 79,200 it was at 83 a few hours ago but it did fall as low as 77 so it's remains volatile but we just need to ride the storm out and then get to the other side thank you all for coming have a good night bye-bye