Yo, what's good? Welcome to boot camp. I believe day four now and today is going to be another trading day Okay, so we talked about candlesticks and then we had two talks on discipline Hopefully you guys learned something from that.
Hopefully you guys did your homework But today we are going to be talking about trends. We're just going to jump right into it No reason for us to sit around. Okay, I have some notes on my phone so I don't get lost in my own thoughts but we'll just jump right in okay so trends within the market again you're probably going to say oh my god this is recap I know we have to cover these super basic simple shit before do I have bedbugs um no okay um But before we actually get into the difficult stuff like strategy and actually executing, okay?
Because all of these little things end up being like the massive umbrella over these small things that you try and master. You try and master strategy. You try and master execution, but you don't even know where the trend's going.
You can't even read a candlestick, okay? So how do you expect to perform in the market if you don't understand these simple things? So with that being said, let's talk about trends, okay?
So the first point that I want to talk about... why do we even care about the trend? Because it dictates where the market is going. Okay.
Markets move off of momentum. Okay. So once, once market starts trending, okay. Odds are it's going to continue in that direction.
Okay. So what even is a trend in the first place? Okay.
A trend is literally, it's, it's almost like you have a basketball on a flat surface and you just push it, right? It's going to roll and roll and roll and roll. Okay. Um, because of that momentum that's pushing it forward. Okay.
Same thing with market. Okay. When market gets a little push or a market structure shift, it's going to start trending. Okay. So, whoa, glitching.
This is why I need my PC, which is coming in like three weeks, but I ordered it and it's on its way. Um, but anyways, why do we care about the, the trend? Because it tells us exactly where market's going. Okay.
So The very first thing that we need to understand is how can we spot a trend within the market? And it's honestly one of the easiest and one of the most simple things taught in day trading. OK, so when market is trending higher. OK, we can do this. That was terrible, but when market is trending higher.
There we go. Put a little cap on it. It moves in higher highs and higher lows.
Right. It'll look something like this, just with a bunch of little candlesticks in the way. And we'll show real life examples of this on charts. But right, this is like a very simplified version of a trend, right? This is a high, this is a low.
When it pushes past this high, It makes a new high that's higher than the previous one, and it makes a new low that's higher than the previous one. Okay, so higher highs and higher lows, right? Just like that, and it continues all the way until it breaks its trend, okay?
So same thing with the downtrend, just the exact opposite. Okay, so for downtrends, it is lower highs and lower lows. Oops. That is honestly what a chart could look like, though.
Okay, that was terrible. I had to do it with like my other finger, but because I don't have a mouse yet. Okay.
So right. Downtrend, very similar. We have a high right here. Then we make a low right here. Let's say we had a low here as well.
And we had low right here, right? This low is lower than this one. This high is lower than this one. And it continues.
Okay. And it's really easy to see these trends. What?
Oh, oops. it's really easy to bull you guys got the point um it's really easy to see these trends within markets okay so right if we just go to the daily right here okay we see or this is just a most more recent break in structure we can um We can highlight this one right here. Okay.
So right down over here. Okay. We have, boom, a high, then a low.
Boom. What do we get? A higher high, then a higher low.
Then boom. What do we get? A higher high, a higher low.
Okay. Boom. What do we get? A higher high, a higher low. Boom, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher high, now lower low because we just surpassed this.
What can we assume that market's going to do now that it broke structure? It's probably going to flip its direction, right? Let me get all these drawings off of here so it looks better. But you can see that right once we broke structure and change direction of the trend, we continued for a while right and now that we just broke structure odds are we're going to start trending in the opposite direction for a little bit okay so with this understanding what can this help us do trends give us the overall idea of where market is going is it exactly how we're going to execute every single time no right we we that's not how we're just we're not just going to go okay once the once the high gets pushed above we're going to enter a trade right that's how you can get stopped out there's there's a bunch of problems with that and we want to optimize our entry however the trend is pretty much telling us what direction to place our trades in okay because if market is trending in one direction why in the world right if market is trending to the upside why in the world would you you try and take a trade to the downside? If the momentum is pushing it to the upside, wouldn't you want to ride that wave?
Wouldn't you want to, you know, be, be on, right? It's like, um, it's like if you're in a car, right? If you're in a car and you don't have a gas or a brake pedal and you want to get to, and you want to get to a certain point, okay?
There's two, there's two roads that you can take uphill or downhill. Okay. Which, which car are you going to get in?
The one that's going uphill or downhill if you want to get to the end of that road. You're probably going to want to go downhill, right? Because the momentum will just take you there instantly versus if you try and go uphill, you're not going anywhere, right?
It's very similar with trading in these trends, okay? You want to be able to follow this wave, okay? Follow the momentum because that's where price is going to go either way, right? There's no reason to try and catch a retracement because one, you don't know how far or how deep that retracement is. like this right here, we had a very small low get formed here. And this, we had a very big low, but the extension.
is always the same. The extension always goes past the high, right? We see the high get pushed through, high get pushed through, high get pushed through, high get pushed through.
Every single time, high gets pushed through, okay? So with that being said, wouldn't it make sense for us to follow that momentum, okay? So that is our goal.
If you can identify a trend, okay, which most of you guys should, most of you guys should be able to do that because it's a fairly beginner subject, all right? but you want to follow these overarching trends, okay? And when I say overarching trends, this is where it gets kind of tricky because people get so caught up in all these different timeframes, okay? They see different trends on a bunch of different timeframes, right?
There could be 100 different trend switches and changes on the 15 minute over the course of this weekly uptrend that we outlined, right? There's probably way more than that. There's probably like a couple thousand different trend switches. switches and changes within that weekly uptrend on the 15 minute timeframe.
And that's where people go wrong. A lot of the times they get so caught up on these small time frame saying, oh, the 15 minute broke structure. But but higher time frames hold higher power. If the four hour is saying, no, we're bearish, we're bearish right now.
It's going to go lower and lower and lower. But the 15 minute just broke structure. Why do we care about what the 15 minute is saying? Right.
We want to we want to use the 15 minute in. confluence with the higher trends. So, right, if the four hour, if the daily, if the weekly is telling us that market is going to go down and the 15 minute is telling us market's going to go up, why don't we just wait for the 15 minute to tell us, okay, market's going to go down now, right?
That would make sense because then we can follow the trend of the market, okay, and then also scale down to the shorter term timeframes, right? Because we know that these high timeframes are going to push. price in that direction, but we want an optimized entry, right?
That's what I was just talking about. We want to go on these lower timeframes and be able to catch the large high timeframe trend moves, but with an optimized entry. Okay. So that is why trends are so important. They literally help optimize your entry and help push price in the direction that you want price to go, right?
Going against the trend is never smart. And this has honestly been one of my biggest struggles and issues. in trading is trading against the trend and trading against my bias. I'm very good at being able to spot, OK, this is where market wants to go. You know, like this is I know where market wants to go on a high time frame.
It's pretty easy to spot. However, when I get on to these smaller time frames, I'm like, oh, wait, wait a second, this could be a liquidity sweep and then a retracement. But that's the issue, right?
We can't be trading off retrace. We have to be trading off of, um, we have to be trading off of, um, fuck, what, we, we have to be trading off of momentum. I'm sorry. I just spaced the fuck out for a second.
Okay. So trade with the trend. The trend is your friend.
I know it's, I know it's stupid, but it's very, very true. Okay. The trend is your friend.
And you're probably going to say, well, wait, TJ, are. I thought you trade off of liquidity sweeps. I thought you trade off of trends changing. Yes, we do. But on lower timeframes, right, we trade off of that on lower timeframes.
So if we see a liquidity sweep and if we see like a liquidity sweep on. on the 30 minute timeframe, and then a break of structure to the downside on the five minute timeframe, and the four hour and the daily are saying bear, bear, bear, bear, bear. That's great, that's perfect.
That means that we just caught the top of the next leg down. Okay, that's why I trade the way that I do. Okay, so now that we understand how to read a trend, how to spot them, right?
So literally just higher highs and higher lows, and the next trading video we'll jump into break. break of structure because that's going to be huge. Okay.
I might even do two trading videos on that because people do seem to get confused on it, which is pretty interesting because it is a fairly, fairly simple concept to grasp, but I do want to make sure people cover people understand it because it's, it is very, very important when understanding these markets and how they move and how structure shifts and how trends form and how, you know, just markets are moving in general. Okay. So the trend is your friend trade. with the trend, right?
Obviously it's hard for me to say at this point in the bootcamp, it's hard for me to be like, yeah, the downtrend, it's, it's hard for me to tell you like exactly where and when to execute because we don't have all the pieces yet, right? This is just giving an overall umbrella, right? Find that overall umbrella.
And, and again, we need to start on these main overarching themes to get, to get lower and lower and lower and more exact. So we can be able to master these small, precise things within price action, but we have to understand the basics first. Okay.
So, right. What, what have we learned so far? We know how to identify a trend, literally higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows.
Okay. There is another way that market trends and this just reminded me of it. It's through consolidation.
Okay. There's three different ways that market market moves. Okay.
It's either through trends or just consolidation, right? Look at this within here, right? Okay, we see a higher high and then we see a higher low, but right, like this is not a trend.
When do we know that market's trending? If it continued higher like this, right? But no, it just stayed like this.
It was static, stagnant, didn't make a move until boom, right here. What happens? Okay, we're making highs.
Before this break, we were going higher and higher, right? Then we chop it up. Boom, we break. We break the floor. We break the low.
We change market structure. And you'll understand that when we get to the break of structure. and market structure portion but we break the low and then what happens okay we have high right here low right here high right here boom market structure shift right now what are we in we're in a downtrend okay so what can we assume that gold's going to do right we came back up here high low lower high lower low lower high what's next probably a lower low targeting this area of liquidity which we will get into eventually right?
But again, see how we just, see how I was able to just take a very simple overarching subject and literally like, this is you, like, this is some of you could be trading like this and be profitable. Don't believe me fucking try it Some of you guys can trade this ideally right we don't trade this way so we get more optimized entries Right so we can have tighter stop losses Right so we can get higher risk reward trades But some of you guys can trade like this if the shit that I treat if the shit that I teach doesn't make sense to you you can still do the basics Okay, you can still do the basics alright, so There we go. We know how to identify a trend. Okay. We know that it shifts momentum within the market.
It shifts market structure. Okay. And it tells us the direction that market wants to go.
Okay. We cannot be caught up. Notice how, when I identified that trend again, that trend is, is on like the 30 minute. Okay, but it's following the daily trend, right? We have boom, high, lower high.
We have a low right here and another lower high and then boom, lower low, another lower high, lower low. Probably in the process. of forming another lower high just to form another lower low, right? The daily is telling us lower, lower, lower, lower, lower.
Perfect. So when we scale down onto a smaller time frame, we can say, okay, where does price want to go? We know on the high time frame, it wants to go down, we're on a small timeframe. Wouldn't it make sense for us to want to catch, you know, the big massive wave and not these little ticky tacks to the upside, right? We would want to find something that's going down, right?
To continue that daily trend, right? So how are we, how are we going to do that? Right? Literally, literally just finding shorts, finding shorts on a short, on a small timeframe.
And we'll get there. We'll get to the point where we can, where we can execute. We're not there yet okay because we just started and and hopefully you guys can be patient with this but trust me this will benefit you if you because i i see so many people there's a reason why you're losing in these markets guys there's a reason why you're losing every day because you're not taking these basic simple very very important strategies not even strategies just concepts you're you're throwing them out you're you're going you're going completely off of liquidity liquidity sweep break off structure must enter there's a liquidity sweep and break. I could go on the one minute timeframe and find a million liquidity sweeps and breaks of structure all throughout in here, all in here, all in here. I could do that a million times within this, right?
Some of you guys are entering off of these little ticky tack things and it's like, no, no, that isn't going to get you winning trades. That's not going to get you high probability trades. What do you think is more high probability?
Take a look. taking a liquidity sweep and a break of structure off of purely five minute price action off of purely a five minute trend and maybe like the help and the confluence of the hourly or understanding where price wants to go long term, maybe on the four hour or the daily at least, right? Because we're working with intraday price action.
At least know where we're going for the day, right? Because if you don't know where price wants to go for the day, you're going to lose. If you cannot understand where price wants to go for that single day and you are trading intraday trades, if most of your trades last a couple hours, if not a couple minutes, you need to know where price wants to go on the day. And that's where understanding and knowing the trend matters. You have to be able to understand that.
Okay, use your trend to your advantage, okay, when looking for small time frame trades. That's what I had written down. Okay, let's see if I missed anything.
Where is the market going? We understand that, right? Literally just by reading the trend. And guys, like something that really helped me when I was first learning this, look, simplifies the fuck out of it. Where's market going?
High, low, high, low, higher, high, higher, low, higher, high, higher, low, higher, high, higher, low, higher, right? Oh, we get a trend shift, right? High, low, oops, let me remove this. Right? We see high, low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, not a lower low.
Okay, we push a little bit higher, continue, right? And when that happens, right, what can we assume? it's just retracement on a higher time frame now what's this high low lower high lower low okay right we're understanding okay and then boom right what happens high gets pushed above now what higher higher low higher high big dive okay use use the the line chart to your advantage okay like if we're looking at the 15 we scale down into this can tell you right doesn't this look a lot simpler to be honest some of you guys really should be using this right this this makes this shit so much easier Right? Oh, we're looking for it to hit equilibrium. Let's not get caught up in all the candlesticks.
Okay, perfect. We're in a premium right now. Now, what are we looking for? Okay, we're looking for a trend shift on the five minute.
Okay, or the 15 minute, whatever you want. Okay, we're just waiting for these lows to get pushed, pushed. Down below...
We're doing this. We're chopping up. We're consolidating right now because this was from Friday. Market just ended. It needs some volume to come in today because today is Sunday during Asian session or sorry.
Yeah, during Asian session and London session. And then once New York session kicks in, we'll be able to understand where price wants to go from there. But some of you guys could really benefit from taking out the color of the candlesticks.
identifying, right, where's price going? It's super easy just to zoom out on a high time frame and just look. Where was market going? Down. So why in the world would you want to look for longs in this?
We're looking for shorts. Notice how, right? The moves higher are always smaller than the moves lower.
The moves higher are always smaller than the moves lower. If you measure it in every single trend, because that's how trend works, right? That's how trends work.
Lower highs, lower lows. The lows are always lower than the previous ones. The highs are always lower than the previous highs. The highs are not going higher in a downtrend.
And same thing with an uptrend, right? In an uptrend, the lows are not going lower than the previous lows. higher highs and higher lows. So why are we trying to trade the opposite things? Move with the momentum, move with the trend, and you will be able to catch bigger, longer, higher timeframe moves on a smaller timeframe.
Okay. That is what what this is all about. Okay. This is, this was a very, very simple exercise and very simple thing, but hopefully you guys learn from this and please do not forget it because I know I forget it occasionally. And that's when, that's when I lose trades.
That's when I fuck up. Okay. And my biggest thing, my biggest recovery from, from, you know, like having like a losing week, my losing week was because I was getting so caught up in the small timeframes.
I was not looking at the high timeframes. I was, I didn't even care. care where the higher timeframes wanted to go.
I didn't care at all. Okay. But that was my issue. Okay.
The second that I can start understanding, okay, the higher timeframe wants to do this. How can I find an optimized entry to, to ride that next wave that comes down, right? To ride that next boom, fucking dump waterfall down.
When can I get that next? Okay. That's, that's how you can get those good.
good, high risk reward, high quality, high probability trades. OK, so do not take these early lessons lightly. I know you guys really want to jump right into the strategy, but trust me, the strategy is purely a step by step plan on how to execute. If you can't understand this, if you can't understand what price is telling you through candlesticks, what makes you think that you will know when when to enter a trade?
if you don't even know where the market's going in the first place. Because the step-by-step rule, all those steps, those can be applied in either direction, high or low, or going higher or going lower, right? I could find a trade in both directions. using that strategy on the same fucking, on the same move, right?
It's understanding where the market wants to go though. You have to understand where market wants to go, okay? Trade with the direction of the market because the market isn't going to move for you, right? We see people blowing on their screens.
Please go higher. Please go higher. Please bull. Please bull, right?
But like the market isn't going to listen to you. It's going to do what it wants and it's going to follow its own path. Okay, so With that being said homework for today. I literally just want you guys to go on whatever pair you use and identify for this upcoming trading week, okay, because this is going to be posted on Monday, all right, identify for this upcoming trading week where you think price is going to go, okay, make a prediction. prediction, okay, based off of what you know, what you know currently, or just the bare minimum that you've learned so far from this course, okay, identify where you think price wants to go for the week, okay, and then after that, scale down to a lower time frame, and then identify, okay, right, so you're going to start off, where does price want to go for the week, okay, make that prediction, write it down, please journal this, write down where where you think price is going to go.
Choose just one or two pairs. Okay, it can either be the S&P 500, gold, GJ, GU, whatever. you want.
Okay. Just identify where you think price wants to go for the week. Okay.
And then once you do that, once you identify, this is where price wants to go for the week. Cool. Um, once you do that scale down to the daily, then say, okay. Where is price going to go in the next couple days? Because you can make an accurate prediction on the week, but does that mean you'll be able to be accurate on these lower timeframes?
You know? Okay, so where does it want to go in the week? Where is the draw of liquidity?
and we'll talk about that sooner or later. Okay. Eventually, right.
We just need to cover these super simple things first. Okay. Where does price want to go in the week?
Where does price want to go in the next couple of days? And then where does price want to go today? Where is price going to go today? And then if you are capable, if you already know my strategy, if you already know how to trade, draft up a trade based off of those biases. And it only has to be just one trade.
Okay. right? Where do you think price is going to go for the week?
Perfect. Do you understand that bias? Now, where is price going to go the next couple of days? Perfect.
Do you understand that bias? Okay. Where is price going currently? Where is price going currently, right?
Everything on gold says it's going to go down, but currently price is going up. So what's it giving us an opportunity to do? Find an area in which we can go short.
Okay. So we're going to look for an opportunity to predict, to project where price wants to go. I don't even even want you to draft up a trade. I don't want you to have a stop loss.
I don't even want you to set up this position thing on it. I literally just want you to use the forecast tool, drag it from wherever price is at right now and show where price wants to go. Just like that.
just like that and it's okay if price goes a little bit higher and then fulfills your your targets okay because at least you knew where price wanted to go right the execution will come later and we'll talk about when we know when price is going to change direction in the market but this is a great step and this is a great learning point okay do this on one or two pairs right choose whatever your favorite two pairs are or if you only trade one pair only do it on that one if you trade three pairs only do it on two of them and throw the third one out okay you only need to be focused on one or two pairs this entire bootcamp What makes you think you can understand multiple asset classes if you're already losing on 10 of them? Okay, if you're losing on every single one of them, wouldn't it make sense for you to try and slow it down to try and simmer down, right? And try and focus on just one of them first instead of trying to study 10 or 20. It probably would make sense. Okay, so that being said, let's get to work.
All right, do your homework. I advise you guys to experiment with the line chart to help understand direction, right? Because it's really easy just to scale back on these higher time frames and literally just look. Where is price going?
Four hour. Where is price going? It's going fucking down.
Over here. Where is price going? It's going fucking up. Where is price going?
It's going down. Where is price going? It's going up.
Very easy. You don't even have to get all up in your head. Where is the higher, higher, higher low?
Just look. Look. Where is market going?
Right? It's as simple as that. And we'll get to execution later.
later. Okay. So with that being said, get your fucking homework done right after you watch, watch this video. Okay. Make sure you keep, make sure you keep trying to master your mind.
Make sure you keep trying to improve. Okay. And if you're watching this video, I already know you're trying to improve.
So that's good. Good for you. Keep after it.
Stay strong. Let's get the shit. All right.
Peace out. I'll see you guys tomorrow.