The picture you're looking at shows Iran's foreign minister threatening Saudi Arabia. What's the threat? He said that Saudi oil facilities would be hit by missiles if they even think about allowing Israeli planes to use Saudi airspace to strike Iranian territory.
This was officially reported by the Wall Street Journal after Iran's foreign minister met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. So, what was Saudi Arabia's response? I'll tell you in a second, but first, let me give you another important piece of information. If you're one of the people waiting for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear reactors, you should know that it's probably not as easy as you think. That's because the Israeli Air Force faces several challenges just to reach Iran's reactors, even before attempting to strike them.
The act of reaching the reactors itself is difficult, let alone striking them. This raises some important questions. Why is it so hard to reach Iran's nuclear reactors?
Why is striking and destroying them even harder than reaching them? Why did the US refuse to hit Iran's nuclear reactors? Why did Iran's foreign minister threaten Saudi Arabia before Israel's potential strike on Iran's nuclear facilities? And what exactly was the threat?
And the biggest question of all, what did Saudi Arabia do when Iran threatened it? The third issue is that Israeli jets would need to fly over the airspace of Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and possibly Turkey. If Israel is unable to fly over Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria, they might have to take a longer route, flying through Turkish airspace, strike Iran, and then return via Turkey. However, Saudi Arabia has officially informed the United States that it will not allow its airspace to be used for an attack on Iran.
Jordan has also stated previously that it will not allow anyone to use its airspace to attack another country. Even if Jordan were to permit Israeli planes to use its airspace, Israel would still face Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias hold sway. So, the geography surrounding Israel is the first major obstacle preventing it from striking Iranian targets. You might ask, how did Israel manage to strike the Natanz reactor in 2021? I'll explain that later, but let me first cover the other challenges Israel would face if it tries to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
The fourth issue is Iran's air defense systems. In case you're unaware, Iran possesses 24 different types of air defense systems, all waiting for Israeli jets. The downing of even a single Israeli aircraft over Iranian territory would be a disaster, not just for Israel, but also for the United States, since America is the manufacturer of those planes.
Iran is allied with Russia and China. So if any Israeli or American planes were captured in Iran, they would be dismantled. and sent to Russia or China for examination.
This wouldn't be the first time Iran has downed an American-made plane. Back in 2019, they shot down a drone that was considered the crown jewel of the US Air Force, worth $120 million. To put that in perspective, it was even more expensive than an F-35, which costs about $77 million. The downed drone was primarily a surveillance plane capable of flying at altitudes that other aircraft couldn't.
reach, about 65,000 feet in the air. This altitude should have made it difficult for Iran to shoot it down, but they managed to, and it was a major embarrassment for the US Air Force and a testament to the effectiveness of Iran's air defense systems. Now some might ask for more details on Iran's air defense systems. With 24 of them, discussing each one could take up the entire episode. But let me break down the three most important and dangerous systems among them.
Two are Russian and the third is Iranian. Surprisingly, the Iranian system is considered even more dangerous than the Russian ones. Let's start with the first one.
The Russian S-300. This system has a range of 200 kilometers and is used to protect the Fordow nuclear facility. Its missiles can intercept targets moving at speeds of up to 10,000 kilometers per hour. The second system is the Russian S-400. Remember when I said the S-300 has a range of 200 kilometers?
Well, the S-400 can detect enemy aircraft and missiles from up to 600 kilometers away, and it can track 300 targets simultaneously. Its engagement range is 400 kilometers, meaning it can detect a target at 600 kilometers and take it down at 400 kilometers. The S-400 is capable of shooting down fighter jets, helicopters, drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
Recently, Iran announced that it was negotiating with Russia to acquire the S-400 system, but until a couple of months ago there was no confirmation that they had received it. Then, in a report published by the New York Times, it was revealed that Moscow had delivered advanced radar systems and air defense systems to Tehran. However, the report did not specify whether the S-400 was among those systems. In contrast, Some Iranian news outlets reported that Iran had not only received the S-400, but also Su-35 fighter jets from Russia. We discussed the Su-35 in a previous episode titled, How the F-16 was shot down, which you can check out for more details.
That leaves us with the third and most dangerous air defense system, which according to the Iranian military is even more advanced than the S-300 and S-400. This is the Iranian-made Bavar-3-73 SAM system. It uses Sayyad-2, Sayyad-3 and Sayyad-4B missiles. What makes this system unique is first that it's domestically produced, making it difficult for American or Israeli intelligence to identify its weaknesses.
Secondly, and more importantly, it was specifically designed to target stealth aircraft. So if you think you're safe flying a stealth aircraft to avoid detection, Iran has built a system to take down that stealth aircraft. According to the Iranian military, the Bavar 373 is a serious threat to Israeli and American jets, though some might argue that this claim is exaggerated.
All right, the only real option here is for Israel to carry out an airstrike, so we can test all of Iran's air defense systems and see if they can actually bring down Israeli and American planes and missiles. Now. Let's move on to the most important and difficult question.
What happens if Israel manages to overcome the challenges of distance, refueling and navigating the airspace of Arab countries? What happens if they even succeed in bypassing Iran's air defences? Let's assume the way is clear for Israeli planes and they do enter Iran. Will they actually be able to destroy Iran's underground nuclear reactors?
You might say, well, of course they can. Didn't they manage to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah while he was underground? So of course they can destroy underground nuclear reactors. But I tell you that according to the British newspaper Financial Times, which spoke to European military experts, Hitting Iran's underground nuclear reactors is almost impossible. Why?
Well, there are several reasons. First, when Iran built its nuclear reactors, they didn't just build them underground, they built them at depths reaching 100 meters. And even more important, Secondly, they chose to build the reactors between mountains to make it much harder for any airstrike to hit them.
So for Israeli planes, three challenges arise. First they have to bypass Iran's air defenses, which is almost impossible. And they have to execute an airstrike on a target within a narrow space due to the mountains surrounding the reactors on all sides.
Even launching the missiles from Israeli planes before striking the reactor would be nearly impossible. Or if they can pull it off, it would be incredibly difficult. And here comes the third and final problem.
Israeli missiles need to penetrate the first layers of the ground and reach a depth of 100 meters before detonating, all just to hit the reactor core. or the body of the nuclear facility. If the strike only partially hits the target, it's pointless. It'd just be a wasted effort. So to pull off an airstrike like this, you'd need at least 100 fighter jets from your fleet, which has only around 340 jets in total.
That means you'd be using almost a third of the air force. of your air force for just one strike and in the end you could either return empty-handed or you might manage to hit the reactor and put it out of commission if not the whole mission would have been for nothing someone might say well israel will just use whatever it takes to to hit the reactor, even if it means using all their bunker-busting bombs. But even that might not be enough. Why?
Military experts told the Financial Times that Israel would likely need to use a GBU-57 bomb, an American bomb that weighs 14 tons. You might say, well, the US could just give it to them, and you'd be right. But here's the catch. Because of its 14-ton weight, and its length of over six meters, this bomb requires a specific type of bomber to carry it and launch it. One that Israeli planes can't handle.
The only aircraft capable of carrying it is the American B-2 Spirit bomber. Now, I want you to put yourself in the shoes of the US military. Do you think they'd risk sending a B-2 spirit to Iran, knowing that Iran shot down one of their most expensive surveillance drones just a few years ago?
If I were them, I wouldn't send it. So what's Israel supposed to do? They can hit any target, but not Iran. Iran's nuclear reactors. Is it really that bad?
Now, who steps in? The Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, an American think tank, said that even the GBU-57 bomb wouldn't be enough to hit Iran's underground nuclear reactors. This is due to Iran's clever use of mountainous terrain and the depth at which they buried the reactors. So what's the only solution to strike these reactors?
CSIS says the only way is to use nuclear bombs, but of course no one is going to agree to that. The US itself refuses to use regular bombs on Iran, so how could you suggest nukes? But this analysis from the CSIS shows just how difficult it is. and risky it would be.
So is there any way Israel could strike Iran's nuclear reactors? The experts told the Financial Times that theoretically Israel could. How?
Every nuclear reactor needs ventilation and support systems like electricity. Any minor disruption in the ventilation or the electrical power that runs the centrifuge is used to enrich uranium could easily shut down the entire reactor. So, while Israel might not destroy the reactor completely or take it out of service permanently, It could send a message to Iran that it can hit their reactors whenever it wants. So the question is, would Israel and the US take such a big risk just to temporarily disable Iran's nuclear reactors for a couple of days or weeks?
The likely answer is no. No one in their right mind would do that. But you might wonder, how did Israel manage to hit the Natanz reactor in 2021, despite the difficulty of striking Iran's nuclear sites? Well, the Natanz reactor was attacked more than once.
Not just in 2021, it was hit in 2010 through a cyber attack using a virus called Stuxnet. An Iranian agent working for Israeli and American intelligence infiltrated the facility and inserted a USB drive loaded with the virus into the computers controlling the reactor's operations. In less than a minute, all the systems, the malfunctioning reactor.
The second attack happened in 2021, resulting from an explosive device inside the electricity sector responsible for powering the centrifuges with electrical current. Again, the result was the reactor being disabled. However, this particular operation stood out from the previous strikes. Why?
Because it happened the day after Iran's National Uranium Enrichment Day celebration. On that day, Iran's president himself announced during the celebration that Iran had started using the new model of centrifuges, the IR-9. But, lo and behold, Israel and the US struck the reactor the very next day.
So, as you can see, it's true that the US and Israel managed to hit the Iranian nuclear reactors, but those were light strikes from a distance, whether by planting a virus or an explosive device. But now, Israel wants to take out the entire reactor using airstrikes and take it completely out of service. How will they do that unless the Israeli military has acquired a new weapon or intelligence about vulnerabilities inside the nuclear reactor that would allow them to hit it and take it offline?
And here, dear viewer, you can't forget about the espionage case involving the Quds Force commander Ismail Kani and his office manager Ehsan Shafieki, which I detailed for you in the previous episode, The Surrender of Hezbollah. You can watch it if you want to know how the Israeli Mossad managed to infiltrate the office of the Quds Force commander and recruit one of them. Most likely the Mossad obtained crucial information about Iran's air defense systems, nuclear reactors, and the latest weapons deals they've received from Russia.
So, have we discussed everything? The answer is obviously no, but due to the time constraints of this episode, we'll stop here for now. Let's wait and see what Israel does and how Iran will respond. But before I ask you today's episode question, there's one thing I want to ask you.
One small detail you should know. In 2009, Iranian intelligence managed to arrest an Iranian nuclear scientist named Shahram Amiri on charges of spying for American intelligence. What did Iran do to him?
They executed him. Later, Iran discovered another Iranian spy inside its nuclear reactors working for American intelligence, named Reza Karimi. He's the one who planted the explosive device in the Natanz reactor the day after the National Uranium Enrichment Day celebration that I mentioned. earlier.
So what did Iran do to that spy? Did they execute him like the other nuclear scientist? Let me tell you, the answer is no.
They couldn't do anything to him because American intelligence managed to smuggle him out of Iran. So What do we take from this? We conclude that Iran's nuclear reactors are compromised.
Instead of just one spy, there are two, three and four. Sure, you've discovered two of them. But how many more are there that you haven't caught yet? And will the US and Israel use this information to carry out the next strike or not?
Now the question for you, do you think Israel will take the risk and strike the Iranian nuclear reactors? Or will they settle for hitting oil facilities or even military bases? If you ask me, I think the answer is yes. If you were in their shoes, what would you do?
Finally, I hope that I was able to provide you with a useful report so that you can be informed of the events moment by moment. I hope that you support the channel by liking, commenting, and subscribing if you like the video content. Thank you for watching.
See you in a new event.