this was not Trump versus Harris this was Trump versus Harris and ABC News all right the 2024 election is kicked off we had our first debate with Kamala Harris Donald Trump a lot of information to digest from what happened in the debate a lot of people are wondering if we're heading for a meltdown at this point we've got Jim Rickards on the line Jim give us your update what do we need to know about this debate what were the pros and cons who's winning and what's going to happen great uh actually there's a lot to say Matt we'll uh we'll go through it for our our viewers and our readers uh first thing I want to say is um everybody in the world says camel Harris won uh except me maybe one other guy I looked at this column this morning so uh if you're wondering you know I'm sure everyone's seen uh you know the headlines or their favorite website or you know new show whatever but everyone says Harris won uh I think Trump won I I'll explain that because you know you can't be like a total outlier and not not offer an explanation but the the universal consensus is she won why does everyone think that um couple reasons number one uh certainly as far as the media is concerned um they're all very Pro Harris anyway overwhelmingly not exclusively you know Trump has his corner so to speak but um the the media is overwhelmingly Pro camel Harris so it suits them to say she won number two the bar was extremely low extremely low practically it's like The Limbo Rock I mean practically on the floor um and that's because she cannot speak extemporaneously and I'll come back to that how it played into the debate uh she can't answer questions she other needs a teleprompter notes um they they're calling uh Tim Walt say support animal because she needs him around um and kind of muddles to it but she just she says things they're they're they're juvenile they're infantile they're circular they're repetitive they make no sense she's been doing that all along she cannot speak extemporaneously so so the bar was like really low and then she she passed that she she did better than what I just described so so right there when you set the bar you you know we we like to think our candidates are up here they set the bar down here she was probably you know not quite in the middle but she passed the the low bar so the fact that they like her anyway where they support her the fact that she did uh exceed expectations um and uh a couple other things that I would say Trump uh didn't do as well as he could have so that was enough to develop this consensus that Camel Harris won um so let me uh we'll expand on that but let me give a different view my own View and I could say one and two others number one nobody won and what I mean by that is there's there's no official score this not a boxing match you go to a professional boxing match there are three scorers who ringside and they score the they score the match and uh you know somebody gets knocked out okay the other guy wins but uh if not they just add up the points and they award they say somebody won they call a technical knockout where you didn't actually knock him out but you got more points that's a that's a system uh there's no system like that for this uh so there was no when everyone's got an opinion you know from The New York Times to um The Washington Post uh and I do as well but uh we're all just expressing our views or opinions uh a lot of them come with a heavy bias so technically nobody won because there's no official scorekeeper uh consensus wise media wise C Harris won that's very clear um let me uh let me think let me explain why I think uh Trump actually won a couple of reasons number one um I spent a lot of time uh I mean decades really studying Communications Theory and one thing I know about um television for that me a video or actually what we're doing here is that people don't listen very much to what the person saying whether it's two debate or panel on TV or any any content in the medium people actually don't really listen to the words what they do is they watch they look at the speaker they form an opinion they look at your demeanor very subjective but very kind of well really uh kind of subconscious but they they form views on the person and they they ask themselves the following question you know is this person being straight with me or is she lying um is this person speaking from the heart being honest you know it doesn't mean you're right about everything but uh you know sincere are they are they fake are they a fake um uh are they um speaking to me or are they kind of look speaking down to me in it's kind of a condescending way but basically it kind of boils down to do I trust the person or not that's what people actually thinking when they even at a subconscious level when they're watching something like this and so did she score some points yeah uh she um she was very good at baiting Trump meaning she and she was trained you know in her preparation so forth to come up with four or five lines that were designed to trigger Trump now I'm sure Trump's you know training camp said don't get triggered but you know you can't help it or at least Trump can't help it uh so she told talk about the crowd sizes at his rally that well that was not that's not relevant to policy what does that have to do with you know Ukraine or inflation or the economy or terrist or J doesn't have anything to do with any of those things but it was designed to trigger Trump because Trump has this kind of obsession with crowd sizes starting with his own inauguration and the size of his rallies versus the size of her rallies Etc so she threw that out there now what Trump should have done is just pivot in other words say uh oh you want to talk about the size of my crowds of my rallies let's talk about the 11 million people who came across the border illegally and are you know raping and stealing and robbing and shooting um and taking American jobs etc etc in other words don't take the bait just take the the comment pivot to something that's very much in your favor in Trump's case the immigration issue is very much in his favor he didn't do that he said uh my crowds are bigger than your crowds and uh you can't even get had a crowd and you got to bust them in but my people they come you know he started talking about the crowds well he took the base she that that's a completely non-substantive thing but she was trying to throw that out there Trump will take the bait and but you know but Trump wasted first of all nobody cares okay except Trump and then he wasted three or four minutes of valuable time they only had 90 minutes and a couple commercial breaks and the anchor the uh the moderators took up time and so he kind of wasted some valuable time when he could have pivot at immigration for example and that would have scored scored a lot more points so he did take the bait um and uh uh but beyond that if you look at what she actually said so much of it were uh fell into a couple different categories there were either platitudes uh and I have a few notes you know just uh because I want you know if I'm going to do quotes I want to get them right she said uh we need to move forward she said that three or four times she said we need to turn the page uh she said that uh a lot uh she got into this thing you know well known you know it's well known that you do this and it's well known that you do that it's well known that you're a racist Etc you know she repeated that five times that was kind of the well-known stage um she she was talking about the war in Gaza with Israel and the Hamas she said this war must end okay she didn't say h uh by the way U the two-state solution that she talked about that been on the table since 1917 in the balfor Declaration when it was British Palestine or the Palestinian mandate later after World War I so the two-state solution has been out there since 1917 107 years uh but suddenly she's got the two-state solution um so um let's see I'm just again I'm just looking at my notes um uh standing uh standing as America always should standing as America always should what does that mean cliche um she talked about a new generation of leadership for our country she's been the vice president for almost four years but some is a new generation um I have a plan she said that six times I have a plan for this I have a plan for that I have a plan for lower drug prices I have a plan to get grocery prices under control Etc never said what the plan was uh by the way the the the only plan she'd announce was um she's going to stop price gouging by you know big corporate supermarkets my first job when I was uh my second job when I was 15 years old I used to work in a supermarket stock and shells one thing I learned about the supermarket business they work on a 1% margin 1% so if they do a $100 gross they make a buck um the idea that their price gouging is ridiculous is there is there is inflation but it's not because of uh greed my supermarkets working on 1% margins um so anyway so my point being um her entire debate performance was I would break it down into kind three categories um baiting Donald Trump all pre-arranged you know scripted in effect um platitudes and cliches which sound good very superficially but you know they like okay well what is the plan or how are you going to do it or you say you're going to do this you know you haven't told us how it's not even on their website um and then just these rehearsed modules she she cannot speak extemporaneously that hasn't changed that she's not that bright but she's talented enough to memorize stuff and so when you listen to it I mean play it back if uh if you want to kind of zero in on this stuff uh if you listen to it um these were all they were all written by you know professional writers and Consultants uh she memorized them okay I'll give her credit for that she's you know she's good at that but she was sitting there obviously concentrating trying to get these things out in a row but they were all like um uh she didn't have a teleprompter but she kind of had one in her head which is they said you need to say this it's a two-minute module here you go you say it 50 times probably get it right uh don't talk about you know big yellow school buses or uh whatever else she's been talking about publicly so she was either baiting Donald Trump completely scripted uh and memorized or uh spoken platitudes um so in in the you know when you watch it you're like well okay she didn't fall down she didn't Babble she didn't talk the way she usually does uh in an unscripted moment so again this goes back to in the barow and then she she outperformed so that's the basis for saying she won but it's not um you know as a voter as a citizen you have to ask yourself um did she give me a reason to vote for her did she uh articulate she says she has a vision uh but did she articulate a vision the answer is no so it was just it was it was like eating potato chips you know the kind of and you keep doing it but but there's no nutritional value way to put it uh so I would say it was a very um it exceeded expectations the universal view as she won um but that was based on setting the bar really low um now over to Trump um Trump uh he did allow himself to get rattled uh the his weakest moment was came toward the end when the anchors by the way just to digress for a second on the this was not Trump versus Harris this was Trump versus Harris and ABC news they were totally on her side um and when you say that you sound like you're whining oh you lost say you're whining about it no no I mean I'm an analyst you know I would I'll be objective about it in particular the fact that they fact checked Trump now they didn't get their facts right but that doesn't matter they oh you you actually said this you know so so they were fact checking they never fact checked her the questions were um all uh questions that really held Trump's feet to the fire uh you do you regret anything you did on January 6 say implying that he was an insurrectionist um do you uh you know do you regret certain things you said um and and uh uh but they never asked her for example hey President Biden you know people forget he's still the president even though he's lying on the Beach inob Delaware um President Biden's been seen now for four years not like the last four weeks or four months it's four years hey uh you know mad president Mrs Harris or whatever um why did you cover that up why were you part of a concerted effort to say he sharp his attack you couldn't possibly keep up with him the guy like us to death he never stops working those were all lies why did you say that about him when in fact he was so scile that he had to do a cou d'e and throw him off the ticket that would be a tough question but they didn't ask that and that's my point which is they were they were zinging Trump on um uh you know how how are you going to to deport 11 million people but I would have said a million at a time you know let's get started but um the the questions were they they went right at issues that are tough ones for Trump um and uh but did not kind of zero in on her so so there was a lot of a lot of bias I mean it's kind of obvious and you expected uh but it was there anyway and it had some impact so Trump um I thought it his weakest moment uh one of the anchors said I don't know the the woman's name but um she she was kind of pushing him on Obamacare you the Affordable Care Act and you know you want to replace it with what's your plan um and they never asked by the way they never asked camela Harris what her plan was she said I have a plan for this I have a plan for that nobody ever said well what is the plan that question was not asked but they turned to Trump they said well what is your plan for Affordable Care and he said um well we're we're you know he stumbled a little bit he said well we have a concept a plan well actually if you've ever been in U uh business management or uh um you know political political management or political consulting or anything of the kind um or anything where you're in charge that's how ideas evolved you get some smart people in the room you exchange ideas some are you go further some you shoot down uh you develop the concept turn into a plan and then you articulate it then you put it out there that's how planning Works um with a lot of iterations so Trump wasn't wrong but he missed an opportunity to say um we'll be announcing that plan in the next you know two weeks but you can count on the fact that it's going to be better than what we have now that would have been the right answer but he kind of said well she said what's the plan what's the plan well we have a concept of a plan a weak moment uh a weak moment for Trump so he did get angry he did take the bait he did miss a few opportunities having said that his um he did hit his points and um he nailed her on the Afghanistan withdrawal uh he nailed her on he came up with the new phrase um migrant crime uh that is the first time I'd heard that obviously the illegal immigrants are committed crimes all over the country but he kind of branded it migrant crime he talked about weaponizing the justice department uh the fake cases coming out of the uh um election in 2020 but that that was by the way that was another whole Avenue where they hit him really hard you know do you uh do you still say that the election was stolen and uh Trump said yeah uh and they goes well you lost every case there were 15 court cases um none of those cases remedied the um the or dealt directly with the allegations to remedy the actual cheating that was going was 2020 now I follow those cases at the time uh and I'm a lawyer who know I know how to read opinions and interpret them and Trump was right the they did lose 15 cases but why did they lose them none of those cases went to the substance none of those cases looked at you know um Ballas in Maricopa County Arizona that were putting boxes and warehouses and never counted or mystery suitcases full of pre-printed ballots that were pulled out from under tables at 3 in the morning in Atlanta Georgia or the fact that the um uh the the pole Watchers in Philadelphia were required to keep 10 feet away from the people counting the ballots uh because of covid but you know um I don't care if you're Superman nobody can read fine print from a distance of 10 feet you can't do it so they couldn't actually do their jobs that was going on all over the place none of that was addressed in these court cases now again going back to 2020 what the court said was uh you don't have standing meaning you know maybe somebody can bring this lawsuit but not you you're not in the right jurisdiction uh there was also a contradiction which they said um well you know you're bringing the case too late if if this is your issue you should have brought it in March or uh April of 2020 not after the election or during the election itself um but they did they did bring them in March 2020 and they were at the time they were dismissed said well no you got to wait till the election so which is it you know the the cases that were filed six months in advance the courts threw them out because they said you know you got to wait till you have actual wrongdoing and then when the wrongdoing occurred they um brought cases and the court said now you should have brought that up six months ago so what it what it boils down to by the way is that the courts don't the courts hate these cases the courts do not want to be involved in election cases they say it's between the legislature and the and the voters and the citizens and if you think your accounting commissioner is you know rigging the vote vote them out uh if you think your secretary of state is um you know certifying fake election results vote out in other words this is between the voters and the legislators um or the elected officials the courts want to keep out of it they still feel burned by Bush versus Gore in 2000 they they they don't want to repetition of that so the cour did everything possible using what's called latches which is Latin term means you waited too long um jurisdiction standing all these procedural things and then through those cases out none of those cases not one of them ever got to the facts alleged so Trump was right about that but what are you going to do on a debate in a live debate on ABC News when you have 90 minutes give people a law lecture I just gave I just gave our audience a law lecture but um you know I'm sure people uh people can follow it but um an example of the anchors the the moderators hitting Trump with a question that he couldn't possibly answer in like less than 15 minutes and Trump's not a lawyer um and it's like you know you lost every court case so there the anchors are taking why are the anchors saying that you know maybe camela Harris could say it if she wanted to she's the debate opponent but as I say it was Trump versus Harris Trump versus the moderator so they ganged up on him they baited him um they threw him hard questions they threw her soft balls everything was rigged against him okay um me again I want to kind of come back to why I think Trump won um oh uh yeah when I go back going back to what I said earlier um the people watch they don't listen I mean they they do listen but not really they're they're really uh Trump uh had a pretty good appearance he he was not the orange man um he got a little Botox you that's fine you're on TV it doesn't hurt um so he got some Botox kind of took out some of the wrinkles um his hair was not orange it was it was blonde they you know by the way they all dye their hair so you know this I'm not picking on Trump I'm just telling you a little bit of stagecraft um his you know combover thing whatever that was styled a little bit better so better styling better hair color uh he had a tan but it was a real tan it actually looked kind of good uh it wasn't like a uh there one of those tanning parts fake tans with that whatever where they paint you orange so he often in often in the past he has been the orange man his hair's gone orang his face is kind of orange he wasn't um you know was the hair color was blonde the the the hair the hair stylist did a good job he had some Botox he had a natural looking tan he looked a lot better so that's that's good this is the kind of thing that people again they internalize subconsciously camela um was she making her yes again cliches and platitudes but she was making her points um but she was striding more so than Trump um she has a nasal kind of voice like that and very high pitched it was really Nails on a Blackboard I mean again vote for whomever you want and take whatever side you want but that voice uh which you don't hear very much because she doesn't do interviews and she doesn't do anything other than a teleprompter stump speech um it really was kind of nails on a Blackboard and people uh people notice that so I would say in terms of visual appearance demeanor pitch tone things like that which are not trivial they actually matter uh Trump came off um much more solid than than she did um let me just finish with uh she did cackle once um I got to look up the name of the actress who played the Wicked Witch of the West and uh uh Wizard of Oz because she kind of comes off like that without the Hat um but I just want to again go down my list uh yeah Trump did Afghanistan did inflation um destroying the fabric of the country weaponized the justice department he made the point that she was a failed bordar um he did talk about illegal immigrants when she was talking about the January 6 defendant Trump said why are we Prosecuting January 6 but we're not Prosecuting illegal aliens good point um made the point that nassy Peli was responsible for January 6 which is true uh uh and and uh let me see he didn't back down on the 2020 election uh he said she got zero votes which is true she ran into zero primaries which is true they're supposed to be you know they they the Democrats are supposed to be the Defenders of democracy and Trump's a threat to democracy they just shredded democracy they just handpicked her with no votes no primaries it was the most undemocratic process you can think of uh I thought Trump was very strong on um Iran uh you know Iran is uh financing the hoodis the Hezbollah and Hamas the three uh two Shiite one Sunni um militant terrorist threats to Israel are all being financed by Iran and he said uh Iran was broke under Donald Trump which is true I'm an expert on uh economic sanctions and you know they did this kind of work for the intelligence Community CIA and others uh I know a lot about it and um Iran was broke so I think it was not only right but Trump uh uh Trump made that point um on Ukraine uh this was interesting to me because she she hit him pretty hard and then the host of course you know Amplified it they they asked Trump three times you know do you want Russia to win uh I thought his answer was a good one he said I want the war to be over I want people to stop being killed it wasn't about Russia winning or Ukraine winning um it was about can we get the war over and stop killing people that's real that's substantive I thought Trump articulated that very well but they kept baiting him well do you want Trump do you want Putin to win and then of course cam Harris comes in if Trump's president uh Putin's going to be in Kev uh keev she said uh Putin Putin's going to be in ke um and then uh and then look out Poland you know because Poland will be next this none of that's true by the way but that those are the talking points um and and by the way just as a quick as side this debate was not really about the country as a whole the popular vote the electoral vote Etc this debate was about Pennsylvania you know it's a national broadcast National audience I get it they talked about a lot of policy things but this was all about Pennsylvania because um and that by the that's why you heard so much about fracking uh and uh and I'll come back to a couple other issues but um if Trump Arizona and Georgia and I think he's well positioned to do that and wins Pennsylvania he wins he wins the election if he he's got to he's got to take he's got to flip Arizona and Georgia from 2020 but if he does that and takes Pennsylvania he wins if camela Harris takes Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania she wins uh even if Trump gets Georgia and um and Arizona we'll be in our newsletter uh uh strategic intelligence we we've already covered this we'll be talking about some more in the next in the coming issues but um she has almost no path to Victory without Pennsyvania pania Trump has almost no path to Victory without Pennsylvania so I'm overstating it a little bit there are some Alternatives we'll talk um but basically whoever gets Pennsylvania wins so that's why you heard so much about fracking fracking's I was I was born in Pennsylvania I went to law school in Philadelphia um I I root for the Phillies and Eagles so I can I've got some Pennsylvania chops I can lay claim to um that's why you heard so much about fracking it's a big deal in Pennsylvania and then she said when they were talking about Ukraine you know oh to Trump oh by the way what are you going to say when you when Putin takes GB and he's looking at Poland what are you going to say to the 800,000 voters of Polish descent in Pennsylvania well there actually are 800,000 voters or or some some large number of Polish descent in Pennsylvania it's just has a large uh Polish Community so but but those illustrations of how this whole thing was really about Pennsylvania even though they didn't advertise it as such but I thought Trump's answer was really thoughtful and the right answer which is look what are we doing there why are we spending 250 to 275 billion dollars um fighting a war that has nothing to do with us and you know they say well you're defending democracy it's not a democracy I mean uh VL uh zinski um you know the president of Ukraine uh was uh elected over four years ago in a rigged election but they leave that to one side he won a four-year term his term expired last May May 2024 was the end of zelinsky's term why is he still the president they didn't have any new elections well I can tell you the answer he declared martial law he suspended elections and he is a military dictator a dictator and Putin said I won't negotiate I might I might negotiate with Ukraine but I'm not going to negotiate with seninsky because he's a military dictator he's not duly elected anything democracy is dead in Ukraine but you still get by the most people don't know that but that's that's the case U but you still get this oh we're fighting for democracy no we're not we're fighting for a military dictator who's skimmed billions of dollars bought houses in Dubai and Miami and it'll be on the first plane out when the when the when the curtain comes down on on the bogus government there um but but the but the um moderators kept saying you know do you want Putin to win or do you want Ukraine to win that's that's a a false dichotomy you create a binary Choice say you want Putin or you know what what is it that's not how the world works there's like a million gradations in between how about a peace treaty where you know both sides agree the fighting's over Russia keeps Dumas and Crimea Ukraine keeps the rest Ukraine's neutral they don't join NATO that's a compromise that's somewhere between a pure Putin Victory and a pure zinski Victory that's how Wars end in most cases not all I mean World War II is different but um but the idea that there could be a negotiation and who would be the best negotiator and who could actually put that together that was never put on the table except by Trump who said that's he said I'm not picking size I just want I just want this thing to be over very thoughtful answer but kind of went right over um everybody's head and he was sort of branded as Pro Putin but you know this is just Russia Russia Russia all over again so um and then Trump talked about close to World War I not a talking point we actually are close to World War II closer than we've been since the Cuban Missile Crisis it's extremely dangerous State of Affairs you've got nuclear armed powers on both sides and B and Biden he's still the president although she's around um they escalate escalate escalate uh and we are getting closer to nuclear war in uh Ukraine and in in Israel in the Middle East so I think Trump scored some very powerful points through the fog of her platitudes her baiting him taking the baade moderators guying up on Trump factchecking trump not fact checking her Etc so that's that's kind of my summary of the debate um but if you want to know who won Matt I'll tell you right now um we'll know uh this coming Friday or Saturday over the weekend why do I say that because the only thing that matters really are is the final vote and that's and the polls okay so my opinion I just gave it other people's opinion they all think she won okay that's what the headlines say got it but there is no official score except one the voters and so we'll see what happens on by I I'm not going to say we'll see what happens on Election Day this election is going to be over by October 15th because most two-thirds of the voters are voting early so we're we're in the real-time election right now people are filling out their mail and Ballas and putting them in the drop boxes or or they're faking them or whatever whatever is going on but um we'll look at the polls this weekend polls have been uh beginning with the coup d' when they they threw Biden under the bus then it was like Queen camela coronation of camela Harris her polls went up yes they did some some pollsters stopped taking polls because like hey we got a good print let's just wait three weeks and let everyone think she's still ahead even if she isn't but now we're getting new polls things were trending in the past week things were trending in Trump's Direction so close but this is close no no no two ways about it but the camela honeymoon was over things were trending in Trump's Direction let's see what happens Friday my expectation is that that Trend will continue because I think people will will internalize the substance notwithstanding the Cosmetics if you see a big surge in camela then I'm wrong but I'm willing to wait till Friday or Saturday I'm willing to be judged by the polls but my expectation is that Trump is going to continue to GA gather strength yeah well said um couple questions for you in between now and the election it does sound like right plls are open we've got you know uh mailin ballots all sorts of stuff happening it's not really a one day election it's it's a month and a half or whatever um in between now and the election is there anything big any other big Milestones or anything else that you see happening because this debate we were waiting for it this is a huge one in between now and the election but anything else that you see coming up that we should keep our eye on yes uh two two big ones um that have nothing um nothing to do with the political debate that will affect the outcome the first one is Ukraine we talked about Ukraine um Russia is rolling up uh victories U much faster and of more significance than Americans realized I don't expect Americans to be able to you know recite the names of 15 Ukrainian Villages but you people do read the head the New York Times The Washington Post or NBC news or or whatever Fox um and it's not being reported uh because there's been a ual propaganda campaign to say you know Ukraine's using the Wonder Weapons they got f-16s by the way the f-16s are being shot down and then she went through that she said uh well we gave the Bradley Fighting Vehicles Abrams Tanks Stinger missiles we did and they all failed the Bradley tanks are burning on the battlefield the sorry the Bradley Fighting vehicles are burning on the battlefield the aams tanks are burning on the battlefield the f-16s are being shot down the himars Precision got artillery hitting empty corn fields because the Russians figured out how to jam the GPS and none of those weapons are working which has should disturb NATO forget about Ukraine but um Ukraine Russia is is taking um you hear these names like are they taking k no that'll they may not have to but um these towns you've never heard of that are major Logistics hubs you got to study the battle space look at the railroad lines the major highways the rivers Etc and there are certain um towns or large towns small cities whatever you want to call them that are key hubs Russia is taking those once you do you can't you meaning the Ukrainian Arm Forces cannot resupply these other outposts these other fortresses because you've taken the Transportation Hub there's no way to get there and so that's going on um the Cur Invasion hey you know Ukraine invaded Russia well again you got to know the geography the part of Russia that they invaded and they did they took they took some territory it's farest in dirt road I mean there no they didn't get anything of significance they didn't get anywhere near the cursed nuclear power plant which was the original objective that failed they've now been surrounded and they're going to be annihilated they they're going to have two choices surrender or die uh but the Russians aren't there yet but what I just described Matt is going to uh by October 1st you know Mark it down that's going to be the beginning of a major uh offensive really the annihilation of the troops in C in K in Russia which are by the way their best reserves when those troops surrender or are killed uh Ukraine will have no reserves uh and then on the Battlefront in Dumas itself moving towards the Nea River Russia is rolling up Vadar and um other key Logistics hubs and um they're going to be major advances and the uh the uh ability of Ukraine to hold out is going to be which is will evaporate basically and it'll be very very clear uh the other one we have a little called the economy and sorry Federal Reserve sorry White House the econom is bigger than all those things the the FED is basically kind of a puppet show me they come out they now they're cutting rates they're going to cut rates September 18th we've already you know told our readers about that um everyone thinks it's stimulus it's not stimulus when when the FED is cutting rates what they're saying is we're in a recession I mean the lowest rates the lowest prolonged rates in US history were during the Great Depression low rates are so associated with very weak economic growth deflation disinflation and recession in a in a prosperous economy where where things are growing interest rates actually go up because there's they're competing for funds people say hey I want to borrow some money want to issue some bonds because I want to build a new Factory I want to hire people Etc so rates actually go up not Skyhigh but you know 5 six 7% because um people are borrowing the money and banks are freely lending to expand the economy when rates come down say now by the way the fed's behind the curve short-term interest rates are collapsing on their own just in the market forget the FED now so the fed's going to cut rates on September 18th probably cut them again in um November there there are no more fed meetings between September 18th and the election so whatever they do September 18th that's it until after the election but they'll probably cut again in November and December but they're chasing the market down the the fed's not leading the economy the fed's chasing the economy in a very bad way gasoline prices are coming down you're like hey isn't that a big victory for for cam Harris no because they're coming down because we're going into recession if they were coming down because they were pumping more or had fixed the supply chain or uh stopped government spending or done something uh constructive that's one thing but that's not what's happening prices are collapsing because demand is collapsing has nothing Well very little to do with Supply everything to do with demand and it's another sign of recession so I don't want to turn this into an economics lecture except to say that we may see a stock market market crash and we're we're already seeing sure signs of recession so my expectation is by Pardon Me by mid October the economy will be uh it's already in bad shape but it'll be it'll be apparent to voters in ways it already is but it'll be more parent voters unemployment is going up people are losing their jobs people worried about their jobs so between Russia rolling over Ukraine and the economy collapsing in front of our eyes those are things that are happening now that are going to be more apparent by October bigger than you know be talking about the debate a couple weeks from now they'll be talking about the unemployment rate yeah yeah that's one thing that in the debate it didn't really uh Trump might have missed a little bit on just making sure that everyone knew that I mean Kamala is the Vice President Biden and Kamala like this entire economy is is under their watch right now and it it things aren't looking that great and yeah you know whether we're in a recession right now or going to be in one that's a big topic sorry interrupt that but I thought that was his strongest point I said his weakest point was when he didn't have a good answer on the his plan for Affordable healthc Care he a wor concept of a plan that was a weak moment his strongest moment was at the very end when they gave each side I think two minutes to summarize uh and he said uh uh you have all these PL why haven't you done it already you've been vice president for three and a half years why haven't you done it why don't you walk off the stage get on a plane go to Washington to sign a bill right now that actually do some of what you're talking about I thought that was powerful it's like yeah talking is a good but you could actually you are the vice president you could do something and you didn't yeah yeah absolutely okay so one more question for you and again this is I know um it sounds like you know uh from your major Outlook and big prediction for the election um it sounds like you still see Trump as uh as the winner there in November um I do want to only because I'm starting to see it you know it's the mainstream and whatever but we're getting that feel that things are changing and I know um so I want to get your opinion on what happens if we wake up on November 6th and Camala does win or I know you have another theory it's more of a meltdown Theory which this one's terrifying that Trump wins the election and then there's some things there's some tricks that the Democrats could do um that she ends up becoming president anyway so I want to go into that for just one more update you know what happens if she wins what would you be looking at from an investment standpoint or doing you know what should American families be doing if that's the case because I think the mainstream is pushing this out that oh she won the debate so now I think you're gonna have a lot of people worried like oh no what if she wins so what's your answer to that question what should people if she happens to win somehow what should they be doing with their investing or what should they be doing personally well great question man okay let's look at her platform she doesn't have much of a platform they just actually put something on website like two days ago and uh some tech Maven um you can go into you can get what's called metadata which is actually you can kind of look behind the curtain or whatever they posted and they found out it was cut and pasted from Biden's platform so um you know they literally took the Biden platform you cut and paste it into her website and that's her platform so some tech uh you know admin or whatever didn't know what he or she was doing because that was pretty easy to figure out so uh so no substance at all but um uh let's look at what she said like she has come out with a few positions she wants to um increase corporate income taxes she wants to increase capital gains taxes um she wants to raise tax rates by the way they she says we're not going to raise rates on anyone making less than $400,000 um which yeah it's a lot of money but you know I'm sorry if you live in New York City uh and marry a couple and 400,000 yeah okay you're not you're not on the street but it's not it's not quite as much as it sounds rest of the country yeah well by the way what I said is um in certain pockets of the country uh I'm not saying it's not a lot of money I'm saying it's not as much as you might think if you live in one of these very expensive East or West Coast cities but here's the thing they're taking a married couple who make 200,000 each and then combine them and then that's 400,000 they're going to get whack those individuals say hey I make $200,000 yeah but if you file a joint return and they're combining them so when they say they're not raising taxes on anyone making um less than 400 it's actually less than 200 if you happen to be married and filing a joint return so that's a much lower threshold than they've admitted but but just take what and then her uh we're going to um we're going to pursue price gouging uh I you say supermarkets working on a 1% margin okay let's go after Walmart and um you know other you know Whole Foods and other uh Trader Joe's and other Department grocery store chains and let's let's whack the heck out of them you know what you get when you put on price controls because we know because we've seen this for you know a hundred years you get shortages you get empty shelves right away you get lines and you get a black market people like okay well I can't sell at a fair price in a normal venue so you know find me on eBay or find me you know in a at a flea market find me somewhere but I'm going to basically work outside the system so you get you get uh if you want if you actually want certain things you'll have to go to a black market or um you know if you go to the store the shelves will be partly empty uh because nobody wants to sell stuff at a loss nobody wants to lose money so so it's kind of like East Germany in the 1950s you know people get up at 6: in the morning and line up and hope to get a loaf of bread by 5 o'clock at night and until they spend their day in line trying to get one loaf of bread that's an extreme example but it's not an uncommon example it is what happens when you start putting on price controls uh Nixon put on price controls in 1971 and uh but look where we were by the uh by the L then that led right into a very bad recession 1974 the worst since World War II sorry since the Great Depression at the time and then look where we ended up in the late 70s with a dollar lost 50% of its value in five years so um so thanks camela uh but if I were stock market investor i' I'd sell ahead of her uh election oread ahead of her administration because why not you know if you can get 20% capital gains instead of 25% if you can get you know uh again 22% corporate taxes instead of 28% I think I think that's the level she wants to go that's very bad for stocks very bad for corporate earnings lower corporate earnings are bad for stocks so you're going to see the stock market turn on a dime and say hey I'm getting out of here before before she becomes president so you could be looking at at at shortages of goods black markets higher taxes and lower stock prices that's the camela plan uh she she doesn't say that she says we're going to raise all these taxes well spent the first 10 years of my career as as International tax Council the City Bank I have a graduate law degree in taxation I know a little bit about it uh and I can tell you what's going to happen which is stock prices are going to go down so um so yeah I'd be I'd be very concerned about that and I think the the market will figure that out maybe they are already let's look at you know to the extent by the way today to the extent that she got a bump from the debate and I think she did um at least in the minds of observers you're going to see stock prices go down now because like hey she's gonna ask the same investors are G to ask the same question you asked Matt which is whether she wins the answer is it's terrible for stocks yeah yeah that all fits with your meltdown thesis I mean we could yeah we could see a major Market move I mean we're seeing it just from inclinations that she has a little bit more chance of winning she actually wins I think we could see a major Market move downward and on your other point on the on the Meltdown um that uh that's not far-fetched that's happening so now different question so Trump wins okay that's my trump wins on November 5th when they count the votes even though they're voting now um gets whatever 260 or maybe as high as 300 electoral vs you have to go to January 6 2025 everyone's talking about 6 2020 go ahead to January 6 2025 same scenario you're in Capitol Hill the house and the C Comm me they got to count the electoral votes now on November 5th we're also going to vote for members of Congress for the House of Representatives so whoever counts the votes on January 6th 2025 is not the existing house it's the new house whoever wins on November 5th they get sworn in on January 3rd uh and then on January 6th they count the votes now there's a good chance and it's hard to put a steak on the ground there are 435 seats but um there's a good chance that the Democrats could take the house even if Trump wins the White House and the Republicans take over the Senate which I do expect um the Democrats could take the house so you get to January 6 that's the new Democratic controlled house they're going to introduce a resolution saying that Trump is an insurrectionist because of January 6 2020 they've already written it Jimmy Ras in the the Democratic congressman from Maryland you know deao communist um he's already written he's already talked about this this isn't like I didn't like break into a safe and steal this this is kind of out um so what happens then if the if the house adopts that resolution and if they're Democratic controll they will then Trump's electoral votes are disqualified he he got them he won you know let's say 300 you only need to get 270 but they'll be he'll be disqualified under the section three of the 14th amendment by the way people say didn't the Supreme Court say that that doesn't app no the Supreme Court said a state cannot do it Colorado and Maine were trying to kick Trump off the ballot as an insurrectionist the Supreme Court said no you can't do that states don't have that power but they also and I read the opinion but they also said But the Congress could because because section three of the 14th Amendment I think you have to go down to section four says by the way the Congress can write laws to implement section three and the resolution would be in that category so now you throw out Trump's electoral votes what happens then well camel Harris doesn't have 270 in in this scenario because Trump got more than 270 so the most she could have is you know 220 230 whatever she doesn't win because she doesn't have 270 Trump doesn't win because he was disqualified so what happens next the answer this is all the 12th Amendment by the way which was passed in 1804 um the 12th Amendment says that election goes to the House of Representatives and the house of represent senators does not vote by individual they vote by state delegations so Texas gets one vote California gets one vote New Jersey gets one vote doesn't matter how many members you have in the delegation or what the population of your state is each state gets one vote um if you could have the case probably will be the case where the Democrats control the majority of the individual votes but the Republicans control the majority of the state delegations um but you can't vote for Trump because um he's disqualified under the Insurrection Clause you can't vote for anybody who didn't win a state because the Constitution says take the next three uh electoral vote Getters and you can choose among those three well in what I'm describing there's only one because RFK assuming no one else wins a state RFK Junior Jill Stein Cornell West none of them are going to win a state so if you disqualify Trump and you say well who's left the answer is C haris she's the only one that they can vote for regardless of who you are so she becomes the president in that scenario but JD Vance who is not disqualified becomes the vice president so one outcome is you could have a situation where C Harris is the president JD Vance is the vice president and that has happened before 1800 Thomas Jefferson Aaron B they hated each other two different parties but one was President one was vice president so you could have a Harris JD Advance Administration now I'm going to take it one step further Mt because I read the I am a lawyer I did take constitutional law a good professor and I read the 12th Amendment carefully everything I just described only applies if there's a quorum so now let's take it a step further the Republican state delegations in the United States House of Representatives pitch a tent and leave the leave the the house floor and they don't have a quorum what happens now the 12th Amendment says the vice president becomes the acting president until you guys figure it out so JD Vance could be president wow to say that there's plenty of things to keep an eye on yeah we've got I mean just in between now and the election you said it we've got Ukraine we've got the economy we're going to keep an eye on that then we've got the election itself which could take a few days to count the votes and all these different things plus your your meltdown Theory where you know if they if they qualify Trump we could see some big time Sparks Fly so I'll give you I'll give you one more quickly which do it if Trump wins on November 5th the scenario I just the Meltdown scenario is January 6th but what happens on November 6th the day after the election you're going to see riots from coast to coast the antipa BLM goon squads are all already mobilizing yeah absolutely because if you get this wave at least in the base on the Democrat side thinking oh she won the debate and they're super happy and then they don't win and Trump wins on lands side they there will be some anger across the country there all right Jim well thanks so much for taking time out of your busy schedule um right after the debate here just so we can get your in uh get your take on it we appreciate everything you're doing at strategic intelligence um if anybody has anything or wants to learn more about strategic intelligence you can look at the comments below and give us a subscribe give us a like and we'll see you next time Jim we'll keep you posted if we can get you back on if there's anything big happening in between now and November 5th we'll uh we'll want you back on soon so thanks a lot and we appreciate it thanks