Transcript for:
Notes from Trading Psychology Lecture

pretty much over the last seven eight years I've spent every single day from 8:00 a.m. eastern to end of the day trying to find the next beta Runner that's all I've really done they really short sell um very very I've been very very focused on pretty much that one thing for a really really long time so my goal right now is to show you just one pattern okay and I'm not the biggest fan of that kind of mentality because there is one pattern that's going to just make you money over time um without some significant losses and other things as the markets are always Shifting the patterns are always changing but I found over the course of my career and specifically over the last four months or so of working with students uh oneon-one which has been a shift I've made I have learned a lot about what everyone is string with same sort of things just different forms and most of the time it comes down to psychology trading psychology so most of what we are going to talk about in this is trading psychology a little bit of psychology behind the charts why I believe this pattern I'm going to show you well it doesn't work every day all day it is the epitome of what I look for when I'm looking for risk reward within the setup and something that is repeatable over time where I'm not going to lose a ton of money right and where I can have confidence and there are many many reasons for that most of it being the psychology right the psychology behind the trade for me how it feels and then the psychology of the masses in the areas that you guys are trading out key levels High a day uh bwap breakouts multi-day breakouts all of these sort of levels and we're going to kind of get into why I think we'll illustrate with a few charts quickly and then we'll seg way into a good psychological discussion and then we'll we'll wrap it up so I'm not going to like I said take tooo much of your time but we are going to get started here this is gav crap reversal I've been teaching it for a long time for a really long time the one thing that I see that most Traders especially newer Traders but the ones who aren't profitable and trying to Long right trying to Long listed stocks in particular is that most of you are going to fall prey to the fact that every single strategy out there that you're going to learn and that's I I started there too like I learn someone so and so strategy but most of the ones that I learned just ended up being hit or miss no matter what and I knew a lot of it was because of the markets but I realize over time and working with students in my own trading that a lot of it just had to do with I'm doing the same thing everyone else is doing I'm trying to trade the same strategies and everyone fails at this game to the Longs side especially so that is kind of the idea behind this it actually started with I started trading the same as you guys which was chasing highs a day uh chasing chasing breakouts chasing pretty much everything zero risk reward no clue where I'm going to cut unless the trade money gets me kept me safe for a long time but no idea where I'm going to sell either so there's kind of a specific set of problems that are going to happen with most most long strategies with NASDAQ that I've been really able to help students shift away from and my goal right now is to give you that right now okay a lot of you probably like short selling you know some of my boys here are amazing short Sellers as well and this may help you too kind of understand how I look at it because when I'm looking at these charts and I'm looking at entrance I'm thinking about you guys thinking about short sellers think about that lution where does that take place think about supply and demand and key areas of the charts I'm thinking if I had a million chairs to dump on this stock today where would I dump it how would I dump it what do I need to dump it all those sorts of things right so initially I would buy breakouts right I would try High a day breaks in fact I would not get excited looking at a chart nor see a setup until it was approaching high of day at any point C work good highs high of day those two levels would get me so excited to press buttons right I'm going to get in this thing because it's going up it's going to keep going up and that is what everyone thinks it's a greedy thing and you're never thinking where exactly am I to sell it because a lot of times if you look at these charts you you couldn't tell me what a key level is that you were going to sell a lot of the charts that I trade are at liquid for a very long period of time and then they they come into play why do I trade these because they are they have potential to become the biggest percent Gainer of the day on any given day all I do to scan when I'm looking for stocks is I have very very low requirement all right anyone who's saying this is the magic skan any proprietary is totally it's all in my opinion it's just marketing it's just buy this scan buy this proprietary crap is going to find you what you need that's not the cas case the case for me is that I have very low volume requirements I have very low requirements in my skin and I see everything I'm only saying that because I have seen the top percent gainers and what they look like in for of here every single day and the problem is is that that point is also the most dangerous point and that St to be trying to Long these terrible terrible cellings okay it gets back to supply and demand if I had shears to dump where would I dump them so let's get into quickly just a few charts to illustrate this okay the one thing that I'll say for most of you who have been trying to long and hasn't worked for you is that you can figure out how to sell it at those spots you are going down the right row okay and we're talking about just daily action this sort of mentality for me pretty much cuts across all my strategies but on first gr day gers right we got SF here uh week ago or so two weeks ago don't know what what the news is but they got up for 64 cents to A40 um after hours pullback so about a buck nice buck hold another push all I'm doing when we get in the pre-market I want to see a gap and then if it swipes I ignore it okay I don't like trading the first 10 minutes of the day or so most of the time if it spikes out the gate I ignore it what gets me excited when I'm looking to Long the stock is weakness and it feels weird because it's fear you're full of fear I get it when stops are going down if you're trading like everyone else trades and impulsively and through your emotion which is when it's going up it's good and you feel good and when it's going down it's bad and you feel bad that's not what I look at I look at when it's going down as long as it matches a lot of other requirements for me that I there is more and more and more upside the lower it goes on my single this is how this works for me uh we get a gap you can see the Gap here there's the crab out the gate did have a tiny little Spike high of day out the open that becomes super important to me right now all right we're going to keep this so so simple when I get a pool in the morning I'm looking for some sort of premarket or after hour support generally speaking to start working off of when I'm looking at levels in the morning that I may be dip Hing off of all right so I'm just sitting there and buy it when it dips I'm looking for key levels that I may be able to use and then I'm watching T I'm watching time at sales But ultimately the goal is for me to get as close to the lows as possible and it's a game where when it doesn't work it doesn't work I don't mess with it because if I feel like founding a low day I cut but when it does work the most important thing to me here is that I get great risk reward back to high day back to vac and back to premarket highs whatever order that those three come in premarket eyes High a day V all three are targets to so every spot that y'all are buying because you get excited at those levels when it breaks through those I am selling at those levels not only am I selling at VI out in the morning when I play this pattern correctly but I'm getting 1 to 4 1 to 5 1 to 10 to whatever my first Target is 1 to five menum I try to get when I'm looking at we scho board okay so in this case svfd um we're looking at a low about a bu5 and we're looking at a high day of a130 so in order for me to get one to five I need to make like 25 cents or so to risk 5 cents if I have 5 cents risk I get 25 cents I can buy 108 or so for that 5 cents of risk off of the low of day that's generally speaking the case and then by the time it gets to VI app I should be taking at least a part of my my profits when it gets to free market highs I should be selling there I sell in and out of them my best trading occurs exactly like this and the idea is the more more and more I've seen it over the last couple years that we've gotten the big volume tickers in particular whether or not they're low floats we've seen a lot of algorithmic trading we've seen the patterns get distorted we've seen a lot of levels that you believe are going to hold they take them out on you're long so anyone who's dip by backside after a b poring move it can be very hobis and they are looking to stop you out and they are how many times have you guys seen over the last year high up dat rate slam and then maybe a bounce at vwap but then they're going to take vwap out too so if you were trying to risk vwap you're probably the only logical level of risk fore on these things in my head is low of day now am I always in low of day no but that is generally speaking the idea in my head I should be able to long this stock uh pass out wake up tomorrow and be okay I'll be down 50% cuz I'm chasing through hies all the time if you can make this one adjustment to the long side um it is a game changer okay so I look at it like this first Target high vwap got to get a RIS reward to there then we get pre-market highs if I can sell into that level too that's better and then we get hopefully a pre-market High Daybreak like this at that point it's just playing price action and selling it to each PA of allet and doing my best to will out for the ride and size out the beautiful part about this and this is the pattern that I look for every single day okay this is my bread and butter morning Galer I can trade this pretty much any day I want type of idea but like February through April I'm sorry March through May wasn't great okay wasn't great in other words at this point here in the pattern where you got back to high day exactly at this point for a very long period of time it was getting stuffed so there was no follow through so it's a pattern that I can adjust simply through frequency of trading not trading in it when it's out work really well or making sure that I'm getting good risk reward to highs and selling quickly into high got to to maintain what I'm trying to do so this is a pattern that I look for a day two if this level here is pulling back to yesterday's highs and had a parall on day one potential entry he levels okay other Beauty about this other beautiful part about this is the psychology behind what the trade feels like okay at first when you guys try Buy if you're trying to find morning reversals and work off with lows instead of chasing Pro highs because what is this game ultimately by low so high then it's a art and people we so wired to not we are so wired to not psychologically but this really does flip the script and it always did on the head for me which is in the morning people are chasing morning spikes people are waiting for high day breaks and that is where they're going to buy but the stocks that we trade are so up they dive in so much they have so many shears to dump what what you need someone tell me what do you need to dump a ton of shears liquidity you have to have liquidity where on every single chart does the most volume come in that you see in small G breakouts high as of day areas like that I can tell you if I had a bunch of shares I no want to stop that's right I right then you have every single emotional person on the planet buy highay breaks together breakouts Breakout breakouts and then they all Panic together and then short sellers step in when they realize hey it's a false breakout and I have great risk reward here to the downside right it's that whole dynamic same pre-market highs high of day where do short sellers short who shorts a lot here the rest of your primarily Longs okay or just shy um so so some of you just don't trade okay um the but that is the idea the idea is that I want to know where short sellers are shorting because they are likely going to create some pool at least it may lead to squeeze but it also may be the end and I'm never trying to think further than that if I can have Breakers who work to my single and get the pre-market highs when he gets a high of day I'm sorry pre-market highs whatever those levels are in break store I just I'm like okay I'll run my singles to be well my dou to high a day my CH is to premarket highs and a home run is okay we got high day break when am I sitting for high day breaks when they're pitting High day breaks I don't complicate it this is a very simple system that I that I tweak daily based on what happened yesterday right if the to Gainer yesterday was 50% and now I'm trading a stock tomorrow that's up 70% I'm not going to have that much hope for it I need to I need to see my scans at the end of the day will stop filing at 70 80 90% because I'm not going to try to fight yesterday's to does that make sense um that's been a big part of the adaptation but this pattern alone has been um pretty much a game changer for a lot of people in terms of the psychology like I said when I am buying lows do you know what I am not doing I am not chasing okay I'm not the the stock is coming to me qu it's fful uh generally speaking volume has died down a bit after that morning run right that's the idea behind it um it's a contrarian idea everyone's scared I don't get scared I get excited does that make sense I really hope it does everything that you guys think is good about longing at the squats that you're Longing To that are actually just squats where you're impulsively buying it regardless of what you think your risk is regardless of what you think your risk is and the more I work with Traders and speak with them a lot the more I the more I realize it's not just how are you supposed to have good trading psychology when you're buying breakouts through highs a day and premarket highs very emotionally charged Parts in the chart how are you supposed to have same pychology how are you supposed to be trading systematically when every time you enter it's getting slapped super hard and down 10% on the nowhere now you're trying to figure out yourself okay really really important to understand this um a trading plan a trading plan right this is an example of it this is just an example I want you to know where you're going to buy it or short I want you to know where you're going to sell it or cover well I didn't really believe in a price Target early on and a big part of that was because uh trading tickers was like my I still is but I've formed my own ideas since then right and one of those for me especially if you're struggling to lock in andent to cut losses is your trading plate know exactly what you're going to sell I know when I'm di buying in the morning I'm going to sell some in a VW what does that do it der risks the trade to almost zero at times a lot of times does drisk the trade to zero so I don't mind not hold it to the top I'm just going to sell it to each level and then let the chips fall where they may and then I move to the next trade and I know that over the next thousand trades that that's going to take me forward okay but just the idea of this is is a big big deal so when you're buying it at a doll 20 I'm sorry if you're trying to buy the balance towards High a day at a120 I see inverse risk reward to high a day I see that as a Chase right here and and some of you may be like what to me you're chasing that does that make sense I hope it does um because these are the principles I just try to apply to everything going forward let's see that's going to kind of segue into the last Little J I want to talk about which is this exact thing difficulties cutting losses difficulties taking profits I've been speaking with so many people we've been get diving into a lot of psychology lately and it is the main thing it isn't up to you to set a Stu and know where you want to cut that is totally up to you the buttons that we press and What Makes Us press them our self-speak right what we saying to ourselves mid trade via our thoughts or whatever else it may be in chat um what is keeping us in other words from Trading objectively objectively seeing price action I hear so many things right money is one of the big big ones everyone wants to make money right I get it I understand that's why we trade because we want to make money but at a certain point you come to the realization that is that need that want alone will keep you from making money to the markets right that's going to keep you from cutting losses if you're thinking about the money it's going to keep you from taking profits s that so everything I do the strategies I try to trade and then the way I'd like to think about them every part of my process is designed to minimize that effect if I don't know exactly where I want to sell a stock how am I going to sell it there and a l tell when I get that question uh how you know I'm I'm trouble getting losses or I don't let the winners run you know those are kind of the main things I'm like well where were you going to sell it what was your plan 99% of the time people don't have it their kids only me where they're going to sell it or buy it or cover whatever else it is much less what the first reward was and why it should work and what the key level they're using is know just buying random dips and using the last previous dip as support random trend lines and random patterns um at the end of the day from a macro perspective all of these stocks that go up go all the way back down and the higher that these things get the more dangerous it is again if something happened my power went out no Wi-fi I need to be able to come back and say it's not going to be at the bottom and these days for the last two years it goes there when they spike in the morning they end up at low at day still most of the time so all the people who are like you know messing around and seeing things in the tape and doing certain things are getting screwed over now does that change yes algorithms are changing the price action changes the markets change so I've seen this pattern like I say go away completely but then I've also seen it develop into other patterns like more midday moves where we still can get great RIS reward but at that point I put a 5minute chart I have a bigger time frame that I'm looking at Targets are the same everywhere where you guys want to buy it in the afternoon still becomes a Target so if you could kind of understand that Dynamic that I'm trying to separate myself from the 10% or I'm sorry from the 90% of losing Traders are doing exactly the opposite buying low selling High I've asked my son several I show him a chart where can you make the most money on this chart son I did it at 6 years old 7 years old and then again a couple weeks ago same same thing he showed you where's the least downside and the most upside on the worst stops if I'm trading this I need the biggest Ral work possible there's so much more that goes into this it's just a pattern it is my bread and butter pattern and it's the rest of my process then that allows me to pick the next one but at the end of the day it's not very complicated and then when I trade it and keep it even less complicated for myself in better markets more size more risk more I less size in out into vwap into high day less sizing out and smaller frequencies and then when that's how work going I like that i' let my pno tell me what to do you know if I if I'm pressing and I'm not sellling fast enough my pno will tell me that and instead of waiting for pre-market high or even high of day I'm selling all of it prematurely into VAP and calculating risk reward off of that does that sense to everyone obviously for me the power behind thinking like this and understanding the value of divine and understanding that the faster and the the more range that these things fall the more potential on the SLE for you to get an amazing trade I can't tell you how many Traders hit me up after they try this and they're like oh my God like I cannot believe I've ever been doing anything outside of this sort of idea at least in terms of buying sells this does not include sympathy plays and setion there's a lot of other things I do right that me lot of money over time but this is every day I can do it or at least come to the market with this sort of idea on gatherers because I can make money no matter what if at the end of the day I went to lower days I can still have a 10 15 30 minute period to make money to the long side of the morning right um the confidence that comes behind understanding the power of getting great brace reward under trades and then the control that goes behind this when I know exactly where I'm going to sell I know exactly where I want to sell when it's going up and down it gives me so much more of a chance to execute if I don't execution I don't know if I if I anytime I take a trade with willy-nilly risk where it's like I don't know exactly and have a firm plan for it those are always the most dangerous times for me specifically if I have sais because that is when you get that deer in head lights mod real oh and then you're coming up with a plan because you're down that's emotion that's what I'm trying to remove I'm not perfect at it but this at least has given me a very specific framework in which to operate risk reward on gers every day regardless of what's going on okay and it's giv me a system in which to moderate where I'm going to sell how many I'm going to sell and when I'm wrong I just use that information to do better on the next one because it tells me maybe the Market's not right um maybe it was this specific C maybe was just a the dilution whatever else it was but I'm going to use that information for the next trade and the next trade and it just keeps on flowing there's no when I'm taking these trades there's no fear you know there's no fear in fact the cut the first thing I do when I place these trades is only my cell order it's the very first thing I do I got my finger on the trigger to make sure there's no excuse you know because often times if I'm playing lows and I'm wrong it's not low a day my thesis is is wrong however so many times that we'll see I'm so close to actually being in maybe the next Lake now or it maybe a be trap through loads depending on ranges stuff like that but it's been it's been um it's been a game changer I promise the psychology behind it you know everyone wants to read the books on psychology and they're trying to fix the trading psychology but where you enter you're trading in shitty psychological areas of charts anyways to the long side that's why these work so great for shorts where are short shorting the good ones at the highs some of them short weakness backside on a predictable backside okay but I'm just doing the opposite okay I am buying low and selling high it's an art and the main art about it it's rewiring your psychology to understand this concept to understand this concept um that outside of that a lot of you probably are not as far away as you think you know I get calls I speak to people all the time who are just a show because they took one loss where they had you know they tried this strategy for a week or two weeks and it's not working and they're not making money and they get so frustrated I understand that but this all comes back to that money thing it's not about money if you don't have a profitable process right now it's about developing that it's about developing the ability to risk $20 to make $800 repetitively over and over and over again with a system and then understand I need to go I'm going to buy I'm going to sell and what the reasons are for that and then letting the experience and the time plan out you know seeing for those of you who've been trading years I even trade the breakouts and highs and stuff like that it is going to be difficult for you to change those neurological conditions in your brain to understand that that is what is keep holding you back from making money the markets in the first place okay if you can understand you need to sell exactly where you're buying that needs to be where you should be sizing out shares you were just completely removing yourself from the of sheep and who just all and no matter what you say what your risk is it's still going to be impulsive it's almost impossible to not Chase High day bravs at least a penny two pennies five pennies and every single day I watch High day breaks then I'll watch M slam and then I'll watch a bunch of news lose money and hopefully I'm selling my last shares into that Panic too I'm panicking out but just maybe my last shes okay um I've always felt like the sizing out portion is another big big psychological tool for those who don't do it I size out more than I size in generally speaking and again it's de risking the trade when I size out into key levels it's a view out at high a day you can look at a few more of these really fast look at this here's other one same idea I look at charts like this you guys see entries here right I don't I see that exit I see where they F I see pre-market Highs at 78 cents I see a little bit of resistance here maybe and then I see high of day here right and all the entry is based off loads okay there's not great pre-market support to work off of but when I'm working this I have day V would be first Target I have second target pre market highs third target now this is only 55 cents Sou and the tendency would be at least in the past that that cheaper stocks I could get a little bit posi faed with the risk because it's only it's so cheap you know especially like with 109 8 cent outs with they're trying to get size but when the when the price is cheaper it becomes even more important than I'm nailing it down my entries and my risk reward getting a penny risk two pennies RIS three pennies risk I'll FL today to get like five six seven pack whatever it is and QB perspective correct so this these charts are not necessarily perfect you know they rarely are but you can see double bottom targets for me high today great Market highs sell into them and if you can hold on for longer then great but go to the end of the day okay it didn't even take till the end of the day 12:30 by 12:30 back to lows back to low day every time and then sometimes often times you're going to see low day try to hold so worst case scenario if I'm playing off low day and I'm going to swing it you can see like a chart like this if BR down a couple pennies by the end of the day um it's always going to react L da s okay I'm not saying this the only way to trade all I wanted to do is illustrate for you a couple of things about trading psychology in particular um hopefully kind of help you guys have some different ideas of risk reward uh and some different ideas on how to get really really great risk reward and value from your trades we cannot predict these are the shittiest stocks on the planet if you're trading small cap they're small cap for a reason and I've been seeing increasingly more and more and more toxic dilation invertible notes uh some really really bad things going on which is why we we continue to see these socks go from like 3 to like 10 cents we okay and then do a split because it's just kind of a crazy environment so understand what you're messing with understand that if you're chasing in a high and you lack control of yourself anyways you were putting yourself at extreme risk of every trade no matter what you're telling yourself because the sit getting yank okay and even if you're setting stops and stuff like that you can get get a lot of slippage when everyone's panicking right the whole point about when I'm di by in the morning is hopefully everyone's pretty much panicked and the morning shorts are covering so there are a lot of people who just shortly G in the morning biggest G they're going to be short it they're going to be using highs and pre market highs all of these things go up into these different levels and that's how I look at key levels that's why I don't look at any other levels other than lower day higher day pre market highest all right and if you can do that and have sort of a systematic not sort of but a very systematic approach of playing getting great risk work within those levels that will give you a super solid foundation I Promise You The Cutting losses is no big deal when I realized take a take a little paper cut take a little paper cut 1 to five 1 to 10 take a little paper cut take a little paper cut 1 to five 1 to 10 some weeks are amazing some months are amazing for this pattern Where You Are literally playing these massive 100 200 300% Runners and you're in them when they're 20 to 30% out because we're I'm messing within the chart at the end of the day no no matter what there wasn't a better entry unless your mind prear like prly all right so that's kind of been the idea for me and you know the funniest part about this idea is it spawned early on like I wish I could just like buy the ons at the charts but people say people frown at it people say don't buy an her VI don't buy a falling knife which I do agree with that it's different just greedly on Panic than having ideas and seeing price price level set up and have price action and all that good so okay but because I listen to everyone I just was bu prouts for so long okay and I'm not saying they don't work and I know personally know a lot of people who trade momentum and breakups really well but for me and if you're not profitable trading them because you're not in control what you're doing or you don't have the discipline over the patience or maybe it's just out for you try this okay I think it's I think it's uh at least will be another tool in Your Arsenal because I still trade breakouts guys you know I still trade them but I would much prefer rather I prefer an up two if I don't have to I would rather be playing the morning like a morning dip and then into some kind of key breakout level with like pre- rocket highs or something like that and then I'm playing the breakout level From Below you guys that's always the goal get it before the Sheep get it before all of you were impulsively behind you and then sell it to you there if I can do that I stay in the 10% and if I can't I'll join you in the 90 right so that's always my goal it's an art buying low selling High I'm not always perfect at it but I protect myself and that's kind of the main thing I wanted to get through to you guys you can't have break trading psychology trading a really really crappy psychological areas of the chart just in my opinion unless that's your thing you know unless you like unless you like that sort of thing you know but for me I don't I after doing this and trading in this sort of mentality where it's just controlled and chill I don't feel a need I don't every time I buy a breakout I have the same I'm like dude here we go it's going to test the breakout level it's going to hurt like where do I even sell it I don't know I got to go back in the daily you find some obscure level from like 3 years ago it's always like five years seven five or seven points of that sort of idea so that's the idea if you can just figure that out it will at least kind of change your trajectory a little bit in Black um outside of that hard funed perk man you know I speak with a lot of people who tell me that they're working hard and tell me that they have something going on and really at the end of the day it's just lip service okay you got to really dive into your data dive into your group your network you know flber Network awesome amazing group of people here could not be in better hands and so really dive into your and into your community it really helps to help people uh Jack actually during one of my boot camps at one point did a guest speech and mentioned that and I hadn't thought of it that way but help people who are worse than you it helps you you know find people who are better than you find people of equal trading skill at the moment and and then push forward together right so that's that's the main thing you have to rewire yourselves how you think bra is not good to me when I'm unless I'm long already okay been long I don't like to Jason I don't like strong stocks when I'm buying them the whole idea is buy them when they're we and sell them they're strong and there's an art to it but I promise you it beats Jason through high day that's all I really got you guys um I'll be around again thank you guys so much for having me I hope you guys got some something for my speech and we'll definitely spend some time in the next couple days getting to know each other so everyone take care work hard thanks for having me I