Transcript for:
Understanding Trendline Phantoms in Trading

welcome back folks this is teaching number seven of eight for the month of November 2016 in the ICT mentorship we're gonna be teaching trendline Phantoms or false trend lines and the first is going to be diagonal trend line support the priming is done by way of seeing the market begin to make higher highs and higher lows the market appears to have an imaginary diagonal line it seems to repel price higher from retail Traders will extend these imaginary lines into the future and attribute support theories to it when price hits the extended imaginary diagonal line connecting higher lows retail traders buy it then conversely diagonal trend line resistance this is primed in the thought processes of retail Traders by seeing the market begin to make hot the market beginning to make lower highs and lower lows the market appears to have an imaginary diagonal line it seems to propel price lower from retail Traders will extend these imaginary lines into the future and attribute resistance theories to them when price hits the extended imaginary diagonal line connecting lower highs retail Traders short at that moment okay trend line Theory now it's my press it's it's my perspective that there's no basis on trend line theory in the form of diagonal support or diagonal resistance and I believe it says basically an opinion um there's no statistical Edge that I've been able to build with use of diagonal support or resistance in the form of trend lines now I've been doing this for 24 years coming up and just about the end of the month we're actually producing this video and I will have been a Trader for 24 years and in 24 years I've done a lot of things in analysis and I was indoctrinated with trend lines when I first started and to me it made perfect sense because I could see it in the past and you know all the books gave us perfect examples where it all works but when we try to use the trendline idea you know which lows do you draw connections to which highs do you draw connections to and quickly all of a sudden and you it's like well maybe this isn't as easy as I thought it was but does price have an awareness of the point of trendline support or does price have an awareness of the point of trend line resistance I'll submit to you that it does not price has no awareness of your trend line price doesn't respect what you have on your charts price only respects where the actual liquidity is in the marketplace and because they can't see you because you're too small the marketplace sees where the large pools of liquidity are that means in buying interest and selling interest that's already in the marketplace in the form of protective cell stops protective buy stops or new buy stocks for long entries or new sell stops for selling entries that's the only thing that makes price move and it's going to be hinged and framed on the context of who is in play right now what what smart money entity has the control of the marketplace at the moment is it going higher based on their book being bullish or is it going lower based on their book being bearish and that's what this mentorship teaches it gives you those ideas to go into seeing where price is most likely going to go and we don't subscribe to down sloping trend lines or up sloping trend lines to formulate ideas in which we find support or resistance based on that idea do banks associate value or prognostication on the basis of trendline theory I'll submit to you no they do not now for some that are in the financial industry maybe you're working at a bank maybe you have used them in the past and you've had success I'm telling you since the banks don't have any association or prognostication placed on valuing a trendline level on a diagonal basis and the reason why is because it's so subjective you are associating future price movement to a level that hasn't been traded to yet you're doing it on the basis of connecting two reference points in the past that don't have any bearing on what the future price is going to do has nothing that high that you connected to to a lower high when you're looking for resistance or down trending trend line resistance that third time it supposedly comes up to that line what makes you so confident that it's going to go down at that point just because you drew the line on on your chart the the Banks don't care what you're scribbling all of your charts they don't care about that they're not aware of it okay but what they are aware of is sentiment that shifts and builds around those levels because it's going to be many times being replicated on the fund level funds will get beat up That's the basis of trading large Traders are the prey that's where the markets go they go for their orders not for our little orders not for our little liquidity okay but because we've learned to trade and herd like the fund Traders we all many times are casualties of that war between smart money and large funds that's the business model that goes on large funds are cannibalized at reversals but they're permitted to facilitate long-term trends when the markets are in that environment but trend lines are not the key to it is the very nature of trend lines flawed at its core I will submit to you that yes it is because it gives too many dangling carrots in front of the Trader's eyes thinking that okay this is going to be an easy setup so therefore let me go in here and sell out this resistance trend line or let me buy it this diagonal support trend line it's not that easy folks but many times our charts will paint these beautifully disguised opportunities that are impossibilities knowing this how can market makers capitalize on this fallacy and price action retail bullish trend line support in periods when price is making higher lows and higher highs the use of trend line support will be adopted by retail Traders the influx of weak candid or less informed money at an area or price level provides liquidity for the market maker the chart may appear bullish but the underpinnings are in fact the opposite the retail crowd will buy at a moment when price will be devoid of support price will collapse and leave the retail Trader long withdraw down in the trade when that third Touch of that uptrend line is seen in price action many times I get dialed in expecting the high that forms between the low at the second time it hits the trend line and the third time it hits the trend line that high in between I aim in that high for a bare shorter block or I will be allowing price to just briefly poke its head above that high for a turtle suit especially if the higher time frame charts that I use for my analysis indicate that we are not in a bullish environment but the lower time frames will many times paint these beautifully Illustrated uptrend diagonal support lines so what I'm trying to do is I'm focusing in on when the market maker sets their traps for a sell scenario many times that high in between the load it forms if the second retouch of that trend line and the third Touch of that trend line the high in between there is going to be a cell scenario that I'm aiming for in that I'm looking for a bearish order block or I'm looking for maybe sometimes on a lower time frame I'm looking for a breaker a bearish breaker where the market has shown a willingness to Rally up to take out an old high that's on a lower time frame that may not be seen as clear with that high in between point number two and point number three all I'm looking for is a reason to be contrarian because if the trend line looks so obvious to me I look at that as a trap retail Bears trend line resistance in periods when price is making lower lows and lower highs the use of trend line resistance will be adopted by retail Traders the influx of weak candid are less informed money at an area or price level provides liquidity for the market maker the chart may appear bearish but the underpinnings are in fact the opposite the retail crowd will sell at a moment when the price will be devoid of resistance price will rally and leave the retail Trader short withdraw down in the trade between the high formed at Point number two and point number three the low in between those two points I'm going to be aiming for a reason to be a buyer down there because I I will submit to you that if the higher time frames are indicating that higher prices most likely going to be in the near term and we're trading a higher time frame support levels based on order blocks or institutional order flow I'm looking for that low between High 2 and high 3. I'm looking for a bullish order block at that low in between the two points and while price may drop down into that old low just by a little bit but not getting down to the low altogether I will be looking for a bullish Order Box to buy or I will accept a break just below that low for a turtle soup long entry or basically a run on the cell stops many times the market will break through now a point of which I wanna draw a attention to is the second point at which you have that trend line in other words that the first High you you see and it comes down and makes a lower high number two and it trades lower and you think it's going back up to make a a number three point High that's lower or three times touching on that downtrend when the market rallies I'm actually going to be looking for a move up into that second High because that's where a lot of the buy stocks are going to be residing the same thing said just an opposite when we're looking for that sell scenario in bullish trend line support retail's gonna be looking forward to go higher I'm looking forward to go down below Point number two that's where everyone's stop loss is going to be now when you think about like this trend lines in the form of diagonal basis support and resistance it's really a toss-up do you have confidence that the trend line that you're drawing is going to really Provide support or resistance think about it it's really Associated closely to flipping a coin heads are going to be a buyer and guess what tells you'd be a seller you're back to the same equation of chance and we do not trade with the perspective of chance when we trade we look at the marketplace to provide clues clues in which the smart money is going to be utilizing the liquidity that's made available for willing or unwilling liquidity in the form of the funds and uninformed money you have to think like that liquidity for product prices delivered to engineer efficiency for the smart money entities only okay folks let's take a look at examples here okay I want to take a look at this high right here okay price has a nice run away from that so that very nice animated term High put an Impulse price swing moving lower and we have a gap in here fair value Gap from the low of this candle to the high of this candle there's only been down movement with this candle's body I'm going to highlight this whole area in here and we're going to reference the the low of that candle right here Okay so we're going to watch price as it trades that's just a reactionary level that we're gonna be waiting for in the future so this is how we stalk the setup price starts to Rally up trades right into that 52 34 level right there that day it occurs is December 11 2015. okay over here on the right hand side we have the 15 minute time frame for December 11 2015. and we're going to delineate that same high at 52.34 and you see price hitting it right here and I want you to look at how this low connected to this low here projected out eventually has another third time hitting it okay so trend line followers and see that as a potential continuation to go higher finding some support here one two three maybe a run up higher problem is is we have a daily institutional reference pulling over here and we're in that area over here in this whole shaded area we've closed that in so we would be looking for the next area of liquidity and down here so we can look at this range from this Down Candles High from this damn candle's High up to this Down Candles low between this candle's high and this candle is low it's only been one pass on the upside so we're going to be looking for price I want to come back down into this candle is high in the form of 50 60. okay so 150 60 level so we know there's a possibility to see price want to drop lower based on liquidity we have trend lines in here that would be reasonable in terms of what retail would be drawing expecting some bullish prices let me show you what it may look like at the time when it was forming okay you have a Hello here they're finding some support here old high back here so they could reasonably expect to see this to trade higher problem is the only thing it's done is moved back up into the last up candle here which is a bearish order block right there so using the market efficiency paradigm we don't see this as trendline support we see this as a return up into a reason to get short more and the market breaks lower Market trades down into a low right here which we'll look at let me zoom out a couple minutes but we have a low here we have another low here protecting that low out in time okay we can see price coming down to that third time does it make a bullet scenario no it's only going up to the last up candles Midway point or mean threshold so let's take a look at what that is okay right in here equilibrium trading rate that uh reference point we're gonna be looking for price to come down and close in this void this candle is low here and this candle is high so in here has a liquidity void and we have cell stops below this low here again remembering that we're focusing on the idea on the daily chart like a bank would looking for 150 60 level so up here we're looking at this Market move higher anything that was viewed as support on diagonal basis on a trend line we're going to look at that as suspect and buyers are going to come in here in a big influx we're going to have wonderful opportunities to be sellers to them Market trades up into [Music] equilibrium one more time Pierce is the high turtle soup s off and it trades around one more time down into this level in here so I'm going to zoom out a little bit to a 30 minute chart you can see that other trend line so we have a low here extend out in time here's another low and price comes down hits it here is that a buy no it's only coming back up into this last up candle bear shoulder block cell here do not see this as a bullish scenario because of trend lines because we're expecting this area here to promote selling okay it's in an area which we're going to be looking for a sell-off price does in fact sell off and you see the bearishness here it runs back above old High turtle soup or Bear's order block okay because we're using a higher time frame setup over here you stop would provide you an opportunity to put a stop above and hold high back here price accelerates goes through what would be considered trend line support and ultimately down into the 150 60 level right here and as you can see it over here so let's take a look at some downtrending or bearish trend lines that are actually buy scenarios okay folks we have a nice run up here two Down Candles right for the up move okay so we have 143.85 where thereabouts the opening price on the ears 143.84 so we'll round it to 43.85 okay we have a down candle hits 43.85 so we're going to add 43.85 to our lower time frame chart so 43.85 we see price trading down into it here hitting it one more time we have a high we have a lower high and the third time price hits it here we see this as a cell no we don't we see it as a potential Turtle Soup long here or a return back to bullish order block so we could be a buyer at 43 85 or 43.90 on a limit or if we can get a fill at 43.80 or lower it's going to be a buyer down here with the expectation that this is a false trend line and we would be looking for this High here that's the second one so anyone would be short all their protected buy stocks will be above this high in here price rallies away comes out real close to this high end here one more retracement lower back down into the last two Down Candles here as a buying opportunity again up here is where we'd be expecting to see the buy starts to be tagged you can see that happening here five stops is right there you can see that happening here buy stops hit right here then you'd be permitted to see lower prices because we've seen the highs taken out here for the form of a buy stop read and then now the liquidity below here would be allowed to be tested can you see that happening here 's another example we have a nice down candle here bullish order Block it's validated when the Scandal trades above this down candle is high the very next camera we trade up again in the third candle you see it opens here and trades down into the body of this down candle the main threshold is approximately 144 big figure and the open comes in at 144.46 on this down candle so we have 46 pit range in here and the the day on this candle is the 18th of May of 2016. we see the 18th of May here okay and we see the high a lower high can extend that out in time does the price sell off here the little bit but then it comes up Pops through one more time so traders that even see this as a downtrend that maybe have been broken they may see this as a return back down into it to be a buyer and they're wrong there as well also you may see a classic chart pattern here that we haven't spoke about but we're going to talk about it in this mentorship as well classic chart pattern triangle and false breakout here they would have been wrong even trading with that and exploding up into one of the 146 big figure now the reason why 146 big figures is the last up candle in the daily chart and it closed in all these Down Candles so intutional order flow you're going to see price come up and close all that in so it's only been delivered on the downside all Down Candles price has to be efficiently balanced by offering on the buy side after it's been sold off and been offered on the sell side price to be efficiently delivered has to be offered on the buy side so we see that rally back up into that 146 big figure and that's why it quickly ran up into that level here but breaking this idea of these supposed trend lines that's not the key to it guys but we can see when the trades are seeing these retail fingerprints all over it probabilities really shift in our favor when we're doing the opposite of it and we can also justify it with institutional order flow and institutional reference points on a daily chart just like a bank would so hopefully you enjoyed this teaching go back through all your charts look at some of the moves that's taken place and go down to the lower time frames and actually see how these trend lines are really there as Phantoms and Retail chases them and when they think they see them they're really not there and they end up giving up The Ghost and their profits