Key Issues Facing China and the Impact of Youth Movements

Introduction

• The youth in China are expressing strong dissatisfaction, leading to movements like bailan ("let it rot") and tangping ("lying flat").
• These movements reflect a non-violent rebellion against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with significant economic and social repercussions.

The Bailan Phenomenon

• Bailan gained immense popularity in March 2022, with 91 million views on Weibo in six months.
• Represents youth rejecting traditional success metrics, quitting jobs, and refusing societal pressures.
• Related to earlier movements like tangping in 2021, demonstrating long-standing discontent among youth.

Impact of Government Policies

• Unemployment and Economic Policies:
  • High youth unemployment, with official figures reaching 21.3% at one point.
  • Government manipulation of unemployment data by excluding students to present lower unemployment rates.
• Closure of Private Tutoring Sector:
  • 2021 ban on for-profit tutoring drastically affected employment, with companies like New Oriental losing 83% of their value.
• Real Estate and Tech Sector Cracks:
  • Major job losses as the CCP cracked down on these sectors.
  • Alibaba and Country Garden reported significant layoffs.
• Gaming Industry Restrictions:
  • Severe limitations on minors' gaming time and spending led to a downturn in the gaming market.
  • Sudden regulation changes caused massive market value losses.

Cultural and Social Issues

• 996 Work Culture:
  • Unofficial work hours from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., 6 days a week, leading to employee dissatisfaction.
  • Difficulty in leaving toxic work environments due to lack of alternative job opportunities.
• Chia - Societal Pressures:
  • Pressure to establish a family and career, including home ownership, which is financially challenging.
  • Housing prices are 12 times the average income, deterring youth from buying property.

Demographic Challenges

• Aging Population:
  • The one-child policy created a demographic imbalance, with a rapidly aging population.
  • By 2035, 400 million people will be over the age of 60, stressing the pension system.
• Low Birth Rates and Marriage Decline:
  • Despite policy changes, fertility rates remain low due to high costs and job uncertainty.
  • A significant gender imbalance with 35 million more men than women, complicating marriage prospects.

Economic Implications

• Domestic Consumption Concerns:
  • Decline in domestic consumption and consumer confidence.
  • Deflationary pressures as demand falls.
• Potential Economic Slowdown:
  • Heavy reliance on state-owned enterprises and domestic markets.
  • Risks of a vicious economic cycle due to declining demand and production.

Conclusion

• The CCP faces significant challenges in managing youth unrest, unemployment, and demographic shifts.
• Without addressing these issues comprehensively, China risks long-term economic and social instability.