a NATO Airborne early warning aircraft flies slow lazy patrols over the northern Polish border Suddenly at a distance of several hundred miles it picks up the unmistakable radar return of a Russian fighter the aircraft is closing fast at supersonic speeds which puts it only minutes away from getting a good weapons lock on the big awax aircraft the plane immediately Banks and turns to put distance between itself and the Russian fighter simultaneously in alert is issued to Poland's air defense network a patrol of American f-15s have been in the air for 3 hours flying deterrent Patrol and are immediately vectored in an alarm is sounded in the alert Lounge of a Polish air crew station on standby and the two pilots rush to strap on their flight gear as the f-16s are prepped for flight since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine Poland has kept air Crews on alert just in case of further Russian aggression meanwhile the f-16's wing pylons are loaded with live air-to-air missiles within minutes the pilots are climbing into their f-16s and screaming into the sky ready to support their American Allies thousands of feet in the sky and over 100 miles to the north the big American f-15s are now picking up the unknown contact presumed to be Russian on their own Radars the f-15s are speeding toward the unknown contact gaining air speed so as to retain the advantage should this turn into a hostile encounter the Russians have the distance Advantage with the r77 Beyond visual range missile exceeding the range of the American a10s by about 10 Mi however the American fighters have better sensors ensuring a higher probability of a kill even if doing so requires putting themselves inside the the kill envelope of the Russian fighter there's a chance the Russian fighter is armed with r37 M with a range of over 300 km in that case the f-15s will be well inside the Russian threat envelope in minutes though the missiles are primarily meant to Target less maneuverable aircraft such as the awax and tankers the Nimble f-15s would be a hard kill for the bulky r37 m's on the ground the NATO awax plane sends targeting data to Patriot batteries stationed toward the north of Poland while the Russian fighter is not yet within range of highr resolution targeting radar the ability to link up with Airborne assets makes Patriot air defense batteries deadly to interloping aircraft even at long ranges soon Poland's AIS assure facility will be online and bring the same powerful tracking and targeting capabilities of the most advanced AIS systems to groundbased air defenses however the facility is not yet complete after 4 years of construction delays as a very likely Target for Russian air or missile strikes though it is well protected by a ring of air defenses just in case the Russians seek to neutralize the multi million doll facility before it's online en able to defend itself the intercepting f-15s attempt radio contact with the Russian fighter which is now identified as a S35 one of Russia's more capable Fighters the American Air Patrol warns the S35 that it's approaching polish airspace and that it must turn back before crossing the situation is tense but not overly so Russia is fond of pushing NATO's buttons by coming close to but not actually Crossing into NATO airspace in the baltics though where NATO forces are weaker Russian aircraft will occasionally and briefly cross into NATO airspace only to shortly exit soon after it's a common provocation that's picked up intensity over the last decades as relations between Russia and NATO have deteriorated using afterburners the Polish f-16s are now in a position to support the American Allies if necessary though the plane seems to be taking no hostile actions its altitude and speed remain steady around 32,000 ft if it was truly preparing to threaten the American F5s it would climb for altitude in order to give its missiles a height and speed Advantage where the atmosphere is thinner air to- a missiles can travel faster for longer due to a lack of air resistance plus once their fuel is spent they can pounce on targets below building additional speed from their downward trajectory that's why in air-to-air engagements modern missiles first perform steep upward climbs gaining thousands of feet in altitude versus their targets before pouncing on them from above the f-15s make it clear they mean business by climbing altitude though the Russian plane remains on course there's no response in their radio hails again this is fairly routine for now the Russian 235 is in belarussian airspace after the war in Ukraine began belarian dictator Alexander lucenko has allowed Russia to base pretty much any forces it wanted inside the former Soviet Republic this has dramatically increased the frequency of air encounters between NATO and Russian Air Forces near Poland's Northeast border though rare NATO has even shadowed Russian aircraft flying strike missions into Northwest Ukraine from just across the border as the distance to the Polish border shrinks the f-15s changed their course turning their noses toward the SU 35 this lets the Russians know that the Americans are looking straight down the barrel at them in an optimal targeting angle for their electronically scanned array Radars which guide missiles to their target while The f-15s Radars can still guide missiles to Target at a variety of angles the head-on angle is optimal and lets the Russians know that the Americans aren't messing around any sign of hostility will be met with immediate and lethal Force now with the air speed and height advantage and well within the threat envelope of the Eagles a10s am Rams the Russian S3 five is in Dire Straits if it decides it wants to pick a fight to make matters worse groundbased air defenses are now in the game Patriot air defense batteries use their powerful a& mpq 65 Radars to track and Target the Russian fighter the big phased array radar provides the Patriot system with classified range believed to be in excess of 100 km it's a formidable air defense radar that uses a second traveling wave tube to boost the strength of the signal this makes the& mpq 65 difficult to jam or spoof even at a long range the attack Network to the US military's link 16 command and control Network allows the Patriot battery to share information with a vast array of us assets software upgrades throughout the 2000s and 2010s give the Patriot a greater capability to conduct TBM or theater ballistic missile searches a necessity spurred on by the growing Danger from long-range ballistic missiles fielded by both Russia and China the system can also engage targets at predetermined altitudes so as to neutralize the effects of chemical weapons or early release submunition which would otherwise be released across a wide area the combination of software and radar is even able to tell if a contact is manned or unmanned and if incoming ballistic objects re-entering the atmosphere are carrying ordinance or not this makes the Patriot capable of resisting at least some of the most common counter measures employed by ballistic missiles such as releasing dummy Warheads to lure in intercepting missiles what makes the Patriot system work however is the Pack 2 and Pack 3 missiles the Pack 3 missiles are the newest iteration of patriot air defense missiles but designed almost solely for the interception of ballistic missiles the Pack 3 missile is slower and has a smaller range than the Pack 2 as it's intended to destroy ballistic missiles in their terminal phase they also employ a hit to kill kinetic Warhead armed with Active Radar that can be disconnected from ground stations and guide itself to a Target being smart enough to Target the Warhead portion of the missile the kinetic kill Warhead does employ a small explosive charge called a lethality enhancer which launches 24 tungsten fragments in a radial direction to enhance kill probability this makes the Pack 3 a much more sophisticated missile than the Pack 2 but also gives it extremely poor capabilities against a fast flying and agile enemy fighter like the incoming S35 that's why Patriot batteries carry a mix of missiles and it's the pack 2's job to destroy incoming aircraft which might threaten the Patriot battery itself to do this the Pack 2 employs a large fragmentation Warhead which is designed to shred enemy aircraft a direct hit is not required to neutralize a fighter jet or a bomber as these delicate machines require are thousands of precisely engineered Parts all working perfectly to stay in the air damage to even some of these systems can be lethal to the aircraft and the Pack 2 creates a vast cloud of high-speed shrapnel that shreds even the most armored enemy plane in a wartime situation a firing solution would have already been achieved and the incoming Russian S35 would be facing threats from both airborne and groundbased missiles but NATO and Russia are not at War yet thus the F-15 Pilots are told not to engage unless they themselves are engaged and instead are directed to intercept the Russian plane within visual range it's a show of force with the f-15s placing themselves between the S35 and any further penetration into polish territory as expected the S35 briefly crosses into polish airspace is met by the American f-15s but doesn't push its luck and quickly turns its nose parallel to the f-15s after a few minutes the Russian fighter once more turns back for safe airspace leaving the f-15s to loiter near the border and watch from a distance it's yet another microaggression by Russia meant to Simply show NATO that it's not afraid of it though it very much should be Russia's aging air fleet puts it in serious doubt that it could actually threaten NATO airspace in any significant Manner and the current sanctions against Russia has left it unable to procure the more sophisticated electronic components it relied on for producing its airto a and air to ground missiles this means that as the war in Ukraine rages on Russian stockpiles of weapons diminish daily and it couldn't possibly hope to compete against the vast quantities of missiles NATO still holds in reserve it's a possibility that NATO is eyeing War as an increasing likelihood given the invasion of Ukraine what was once thought impossible is now at the Forefront of every member of NATO could Russia really declare war on the alliance and could it win to answer the question we have to imagine an alternate timeline where Russia forces weren't bogged down in a NeverEnding fight for Ukraine and instead opted for a more direct provocation against NATO February 24th 20122 Russian forces have been involved in a large scale exercise with their allies in Belarus but this has been a front to allow Russian forces to Stage closer to the NATO countries of Lithuania lvia and Estonia at 0600 local Moscow time Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin releases a pre-recorded message relaying his intention to declare a special military operation meant to bring NATO aggression to heal right on Q Russian missile strikes begin to rain down across Lithuania and lvia the first targets are military bases and airfields the attack isn't a complete surprise to Nato though and the missile defense systems begin to knock Russian missiles out of the air the Russian volley is overwhelming and with a hit rate of 60% missile strikes saturate military targets across the Baltic Nations dozens of NATO's forward deployed Supply caches are destroyed along with several Key Supply Depot Russia's long-range targeting capabilities however are deficient due to the 2014 sanctions against it and the Banning of dual use technology that crippled its space surveillance Network while many missiles hit their targets many don't often hitting civilian targets instead after a blistering barrage lasting half an hour Russia has failed to completely the command and control or air defense networks of the two countries and over half of the airfields remain operational in the air Russian planes piggyback on the missile assault thanks to Nato Superior long-range surveillance capability its air forces are not caught completely off guard and several combat air patrols have been on constant rotation ever since the military build up along Russia's Western military district and Belarus but the incoming wave of air power is overwhelming for the few defenders in the sky and from damaged airfields across the baltics NATO Fighters are being rushed for combat their pilots however have to be recalled to base from their home or Barracks adding to the response time the few Fighters NATO manages to get in the air engage Russian targets with standoff attack longrange air to a missiles these missiles allow NATO forces to operate from well outside the envelope of Russian groundbased air defenses which ring the Baltic states the first combat casualties of the Russian NATO War are Russian planes but there are too few Defenders and too many attackers to significantly stem the incoming Air Attack with long range missiles expended NATO Fighters are forced to move to positions just outside the threat range of the Russian 400s and other mobile air defenses engaging Russian forces sent to neutralize them until forced to retreat to airfields in lvia with the missile on slot and Russian air defenses in kenrad on lithuania's Southern border any surviving NATO aircraft can only be guaranteed some measure of safety further north in lvia but NATO has plenty of air defenses left operational even after the opening missile barrage in our real world Russia proved unable to neutralize Ukraine's air defenses in its opening wave of attacks despite having far superior air and longrange striking power in this scenario Russia's committing far more forces to the attack but also facing far more sophisticated and better equipped defenses as Russian planes are blonded out of the sky by air defenses the Russian air offensive is briefly halted instead more limited strikes against air defense networks are carried out by longrange standoff weapons however Russia has a limited availability of smart weapons and its targeting capabilities are far inferior to Nato many air defense sites are destroyed or heavily damaged with anti-radiation missiles taking out all important air defense Radars but defenses on the more western parts of the baltics remain intact within minutes of hostilities NATO's very high Readiness response Force has been activated soldiers on leave or at home are being recalled and a 5,000 strong response force of Special Forces infantry armor and artillery is being assembled for immediate deployment within 48 hours they'll be on the ground in the baltics ready to help stem the Russian Onslaught a few days later they can be joined by NATO's response force a rapid response force of 40,000 that includes combat air power and air support components NATO maintains a contingent of around a thousand strong of forward deployed forces in the baltics and with the military buildup by Russia in recent weeks this has been strengthened by an additional few thousand along with several dozen aircraft however this is far insufficient to stop a Russian onslaught of 150,000 troops even with lvia and lithuania's approximately 50,000 strong military of that number not all are actual combat troops with many being support and logistical Personnel so NATO's actual combat power in the ground numbers at barely over 12,000 of more critical concern is is the lack of Tanks though lvia and Lithuania both field nearly a th000 armored vehicles with some anti-tank capabilities as Russian troops cross the border NATO forces are ordered to retreat rather than Engage The Invaders NATO's top General Supreme Allied Commander General Todd D Walters is aware of the massive mismatch of forces across the baltics this exact scenario has been War gained extensively and the only chance NATO has of holding off the Russian military long enough for its response Force to arrive is to force the Russians into fighting in major cities where the terrain favors the Defender and Russia's overwhelming Firepower can be largely neutered however it's always been accepted that it was strategically impossible to guarantee the security of the Baltic members of NATO given that stationing enough troops to do so would have required massive commitments of forward deployed soldiers from across the alliance a costly proposition and a hugely destabilizing move that would have guaranteed a conflict between Russia and NATO much sooner than this NATO will fight as best it can to hold the baltics open for as long as possible but its main response Force already has plans to launch a Counterattack from Poland planning for the fall of L in Lithuania within the first few days of fighting already polish troops are digging in for an assault either from kaliningrad or bellarus but such an assault won't be forthcoming Russia's strategy to break NATO is to Target the relatively undefended Baltic states and then simply dig in NATO will then have to decide if it wants to invoke Article 5 of the alliance's charter stating that an attack on one is an attack on all knowing that they'll be fighting an offensive war against an entrenched enemy in a conflict that could turn nuclear Russia is betting that NATO's res resolve is weak and it won't risk escalating the war the Assurance of mutual defense is a Bedrock principle of NATO and should it fail the alliance could be splintered the United States Poland and the United Kingdom are staunchly committed to invoking Article 5 in any case of hostilities but other member nations might not be as committed to Waging War for countries that many of them weren't happy about joining NATO anyway some of them like Germany have deep Financial ties to Russia already and an end to Russian energy for Germany will be economically catastrophic only the coming days will determine if Nat invokes Article 5 in full but for now what is sure is that even if Russia is facing just Poland the UK and the US it's still facing a significantly powerful force the US just has to get its Firepower to Europe first a process that will take weeks to fully mature in our fictional scenario though the US hasn't been blind to Russia's buildup of forces along its Western military district and in bellarus in this scenario an invasion of Ukraine was possible but the build up of forces and Supply Depots along the borders with the Baltic states tipped Russia's hand weeks ago still the US has delayed in deploying the bulk of its Firepower to Europe in hopes of not destabilizing the situation further but that doesn't mean it hasn't taken steps to move a significant Force to its bases in Germany a large contingent of its air power has also been moved to bases in Mainland Europe and the UK and is now preparing for combat with the Russian Air Force this has been a conflict the US Air Force has been waiting for for a very long time its F-15 fighting Eagle was designed to kill Soviet Mi but today it's more than capable of sweeping the skies clear of Russian Fighters the US's F-35 Fleet isn't fully operational yet but dozens of the advanced stealthy planes are ready for combat and as the Russians will soon find out are absolutely gamechanging NATO strategy is simple draw the Russians into NATO territory and away from their Logistics hubs inside Russia and bellarus Logistics has always been the Russian military's weakest point and in our real world a lack of logistical support has severely affected the Russian military's ability to fight in Ukraine this is because Russian forces are simply not capable by design of fighting major land offensives far from their own borders this sounds strange given that Russia's greatest potential conflict was a major land war in Europe so it seems like it should be something the Russian military would be prepared for yet for all the focus on new Hypersonic missiles overwhelming amounts of artillery thousands of tanks and apcs etc etc the Russian military has failed to learn the lesson it's been forcibly taught over and over again throughout history a military can't fight without fuel food and ammo Russian Logistics focus on rail Transportation with an incredible capability to move troops and Equipment within their own borders quickly and efficiently Russian internal Logistics are probably some of the best in the world and they even have an entire core dedicated to railway Transportation its building repairing and maintenance but Russian Railways stop at the Soviet Union's old borders that's because Russia uses a wider Gauge Railroad Track than the rest of Europe meaning that they're plan to resupply forces via railroads stop at the baltics in Ukraine adjustable carriages do exist but engines cannot be made adjustable to fit both the Soviet rails and newer European rails thus Russia would have to seize European engines to drive their railroad carriages into Europe proper but NATO would never allow those engines to fall into the hands of the Russians for this exact reason but whether delivering supplies to a Railhead their trains can actually reach or deeper into Europe with seized European engines Russia still has a serious problem with Logistics mainly there aren't enough Logistics Personnel or equipment for the job of supplying all of its forces each Russian combined arms Army is allotted a single material technical support Brigade each material technical support Brigade has two truck battalions with a total of 150 General car trucks with 50 trailers and 260 specialized trucks per Brigade the further an Army moves from the rail head the less trips that its resupply trucks can undertake increasing the total length of time for resupply at the current number of trucks available there are simply not enough trucks for the operation more than a few dozen miles from a rail head and that's before taking into account losses due to enemy activity and Equipment breakdown take for instance Russia's heavy use of Rocket artillery each Russian army has approximately 56 to 90 multiple launch rocket systems and supplying a single launcher takes up the entire bed of a truck so if the entire mlrs force fired just one volley it would require up to 90 trucks solely for resupplying ammunition those trucks then could not be used for anything else like for example fing the fuel the mlrs needs to drive to a new location or food or water or ammunition for the men Manning of the systems just a Russian army mlrs attachment is already taking up a significant amount of Russia's logistical capabilities leaving the rest of its forces tanks apcs entr tube artillery with much fewer trucks for their own resupply needs and again this is before taking into account the fact that Russian Logistics will be under constant enemy attack or that resupplies further diminish the further from a safe rail head the Russian offensive moves in our hypothetical scenario NATO understands this all too well and that's why as their forces Retreat to pull the Russians deeper into NATO territory Special Operations forces launch raids against Russian Supply convoys before melting back into the countryside NATO's strategy is to put up a Mobile Defense that keeps the Russian firing and burning gas but places a tactical Victory always just out of their grasp Russian units are equipped to be independent of resupply for 3 to 5 days but in intense Urban combat those figures shrink dramatically to just 3 days at Best by the dawn of the fourth day of fighting Russian forces are forced to cease their Advance toward R starved of ammunition food water and fuel in Lithuania though they have managed to capture vilos though partisan Fighters are making the Russians suffer in Street to street fighting with Superior reconnaissance capabilities NATO was able to pinpoint Russian air defenses and send wild weasel aircrafts on a mission to destroy them taking from the example of Russian performance in Ukraine today these suppression of enemy air defense missions succeed with astounding success for longer range S400 and older s300 batteries f35s equipped with glide bombs are able to overwhelm their missile defenses and Destroy them without the S400 ever getting off a single shot loitering migs defending from Air Attack are likewise unable to pick off the f-35s until they get to within close range which very few manag to do without getting blown out of the sky however the number of f35s is limited which is where their capability to network with non- stealthy fourth generation planes comes into play with their Advanced Data links f35s are able to guide Target bombs and missiles fired by non- stealthy planes who can carry out attacks far outside the threat envelope of Russian defenses the results are devastating and though a dozen f35s are lost in combat Russian air defenses are savagely muled the greatest factor of NATO success however is Russia's own incompetence our real world invasion of Ukraine has proven that the modern Russian military is nowhere near the formidable Beast that Europe has feared in fact they're barely capable of carrying out Modern Combat operations and it's only their overwhelming numbers that are seeing them slowly defeat Ukraine's forces on the Tactical level we've seen time and again as Russian tank commanders don't make use of dismounted infantry to protect the tanks from anti-tank kill teams leading to numerous deadly ambushes by Ukrainian forces using NATO anti-tank missiles we've also seen as Russian forces practice no discernable Convoy security procedures with their Convoy is often coming to a complete stop at Crossroads and other danger Crossings and without deploying security elements on their flanks to delay an enemy attack and allow the Convoy to push through even their ability to prevent Friendly Fire incidents through discipline and Communications is under question as more than once Russian units have engaged in full-blown battles between each other much to the observing ukrainians Delight perhaps most baffling of all is the destruction of Russian air defenses inside a Convoy by Ukrainian aircraft even when at a complete stop for several hours their Russian Crews never bothered to turn on on their radar and scan for threats the scenario has also repeated itself numerous times lastly we've seen time and again how Russian forces fail to properly respond to Ukrainian ambushes when caught in an ambush the proper procedur is to either fight out of the Ambush or assault through it instead Russian forces are often seen scattering in a panic while their comrades who stayed behind actually to assault the Ambush are obliterated one by one forces outside of the Ambush zone are commonly observed to either Drive Away in a panic or come to a complete stop and begin to back up instead forces outside of an ambush should be deploying for a flanking assault on the ambushing enemy Force neutralizing the threat to their comrades stuck in the Kill Zone all we've seen so far in Ukraine is indicative of one thing the Russian military is largely poorly trained but they're also operating equipment in various stages of disrepair some units enjoy more modern well-maintained equipment and are appropriately deadly but many others seem to be suffering from serious maintenance and modernity problems Russian tanks for instance are being Savaged by Ukrainian infantry armed with anti-tank missiles not just because of poor tactics in their deployment but also because they lack active protection systems such as trophy which an increasing number of us combat vehicles are equipped with they seem to also lack environmental sensors to help them pinpoint the source of the attack leading to confusion and panic after an attack only made worse by poor discipline training and ever shrinking morale often vaed for its electronic warfare capabilities the Russian military has proven itself incapable of securing its own Communications and its invasion of Ukraine as it turned out an astonishing number of Russian units operate on completely unsecured radios this has allowed the Ukrainian military and even amateur radio operators to interfere with and jam Russian radios ukrainians have hopped onto Russian frequencies to insult their Invaders play the Ukrainian national anthem on repeat for days at a time and even jammed the frequency with white noise revealing messages or images when analyzed digitally against NATO unsecured Communications spell disaster for the Russian military as NATO electronic warfare operatives don't just Jam Russian Communications but actively use them for sabotage false orders are relayed over unsecured radios causing entire Russian units to move out of formation or even launch attacks against Phantom targets fluent Russian speakers wreak havoc on Russian forces simply by hijacking their unsecured coms but because they must be very close to the front line to do so their effectiveness is limited as NATO's response Force finally prepares for a proper engagement against Russian forces their Air Forces launch a devastating assault from the air American B2 stealth bombers penetrate into Russian air defenses to destroy important communication hubs and surveillance Radars throwing air defenses into disarray much like in the first goal War when Iraq used air defense networks model after Russia's own these Precision strikes by stealthy aircraft Prov to be crippling for the air defense capabilities of Russian units add in serious resupply problems after constant missile and air attacks against Russian Railways and strategically important Bridges and the Russian Army's capability to defend itself in the air Falls largely to its Aerospace forces but here too NATO has the advantage Russian Pilots struggle to keep a 120 hour flight time minimum per year while NATO Pilots regularly fly nearly twice as many hours to maintain their Prof efficiency maintenance problems also affect the Russian Aerospace forces in our real world we saw two Russian aircraft simply fall out of the sky on the first day of Ukrainian Invasion due to maintenance issues and across the broader Russian Air Force we can expect similar levels of unreadiness but its better avionics sensors and longer range anti-air missiles coupled with a sprinkling of f35s that Prov decisive in the sky in the largest Air Battle since World War II NATO forces wrestle control of the Skies over the front away from the Russians resulting in dozens of casualties on both sides this opens up the Greater use of air support to attack Russian army formations though and here again another of NATO's strengths over Russia comes into play very few Russian Pilots have multi-roll experience while NATO Pilots regularly fly both air superiority and air strike missions for a NATO plane switching from shooting down migs to blowing up tanks is as simple as switching the plan's Munitions but Russian Air Forces must use dedicated aircraft and Crews for each Mission the lack of flexibility hurts Russian forces badly in Ukraine especially in the opening days of the war and this is why historically Russia iies heavily on artillery for fire support not aircraft logistic problems have starved Russian Artillery of ammunition though and even when fully supplied Russian Artillery is not very flexible needing to always stay under an umbrella of groundbased fire support has also significantly slowed Russia's Advance while NATO forces can better exploit tactical opportunities thanks to their Reliance on air power for fire support now NATO is on the offensive on the ground not just in the air and the final critical weakness of the Russian military is revealed NATO attacks Russian formations across multiple fronts with smaller but much more maneuverable forces this exploits an inherent weakness of the Russian Battalion tactical Group which is its inability to coordinate fire support against attacks coming from multiple directions a lack of maneuver forces held in reserve also limits the Russian btg's ability to respond to various new fronts at the same time NATO's aggressive attacks across multiple fronts throws Russian commanders into disarray due to an inherent limitation in their command and control systems their electronic warfare and direct fire assets are formidable but incapable of focusing AC Ross a wide front by comparison the decentralized command structure of NATO forces allows them to maneuver three times as many units simultaneously with each formation acting semi-autonomously and pursuing objectives and opportunities as they arise the result is like a giant trying to swat away hundreds of bees attacking simultaneously where Russian blows land they're devastating and numerous NATO units are annihilated in Fierce close quarter combat but while one front is being reinforced a completely different front is being attacked causing confusion and Chaos at the command level NATO's own iic Warfare assets and fire support only add to the quickly Gathering fog of war that the Russian chain of command is suddenly finding itself fighting in as nighttime rolls around though things go from bad to worse for Russian forces as observed in Ukraine Russian Knight attack capabilities are uneven and sporadic many soldiers lack basic night vision and NATO tanks and armored vehicles have on the whole more capable sensors and imagers this allows NATO vehicles to open up first and from further away American Abram silver bullets prove particularly deadly versus Russian armor just like they did against Russian tanks in the first Gulf War t-72s make up the bulk of Russian armor and while domestic models are better protected than export models provided to Iraq the results are largely the same t9s farare better against NATO's more modern tanks but there's simply too few of them and the front is too wide the vaed T14 which was supposed to revolutionize take Warfare never made it to full scale production thanks to sanctions against Russia and its sputtering economy the fight is not bloodless for NATO forces though and casualties quickly climb into the thousands after days of fierce fighting with hundreds of arm Vehicles lost on both sides however NATO operational superiority High morale better training and largely more capable equipment proves to be decisive perhaps more than anything else though it's Russia's Logistics that Doom its military offensive into the baltics NATO forces have been savagely attacking Russian Supply convoys even at the cost of foregoing attacks against tank and artillery positions NATO knows it's far more important to disrupt Russia's ability to resupply its forces than to actually destroy set forces and now with Russian troops deep in the baltics and far from their rail network their supply difficulty increase exponentially with each truck lost the Russian military has been pressing civilian trucks into service but ongoing attacks against Supply convoys and even the destruction of public roads makes resupply increasingly Impossible by a week of proper ground fighting between the two sides Russian troops are surrendering in mass and abandoning their vehicles we saw this in our real world in Ukraine and contined to see it as Russia struggles to fix its Logistics problems Ukrainian forces have discovered entire convoys of Russian tanks and apcs abandoned due to a lack of fuel or food their Crews trying to hike back to Friendly lines against a far more capable Force such as NATO these logistical problems become critical vulnerabilities that spell disaster for the Russian military it's the same story across every facet of the Russian military that is proven to be in the words of the retired American Major General Paul Eaton unexpectedly incompetent and incapable of combined arms Warfare Stalin had a famous adage when asked about the West technological superiority quantity is a quality all its own that might have been true back in his day but today no amount of quantity can make up for the Russian military's complete lack of basic fundamentals while a nator Russian war would be devastating for both sides in a non-nuclear scenario Russia has proven in its bungled invasion of Ukraine that it has no Hope of Victory against the obviously Superior North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the 1984 film Red Dawn the beleaguered Wolverines teen partisans defending the middle of America against the Soviet and Cuban Invasion ask a downed us fighter pilot played by po Booth what started the war his answer the two toughest Kids on the Block I guess sooner or later they're going to fight that's the way many analysts see the current situation between the United States and its allies primarily NATO and China and its main military ally Russia with all the military spending on both sides it only seems inevitable that they will eventually use the power they've built up to forward their Global agendas the current situation between the authoritarian East and liberal West has not been this tense in about half a century the invasion of Ukraine has brought NATO and the United States into as close close to an allout hot war with Russia as we've seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis but with that previous series of events cooled off before shots fired the Ukrainian War has seen hundreds of thousands of casualties Russia feels that many of the deaths on their side are due to the military and economic aid sent by NATO and the US to Ukraine Putin and his political henchmen have repeatedly threatened NATO with nuclear weapons if they feel the existence of their country is threatened any more than it already is matters weren't made any better when Great Britain almost had one of its rc13 35 reconnaissance planes shot down in September 2022 which would have raised tensions even more there was another close call in November of 2022 when an errant Ukrainian air defense missile missed its intended target another Russian missile barrage indiscriminately targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and landed in neighboring Poland killing two people NATO has a very specific section of its agreement called Article 5 which states that any attack on a member nation is an attack on all of NATO for a moment talks of allout war between Russia and NATO filled the blogosphere Russian officials have sought to paint NATO as aggressors in the war continually claiming that the poor little Russia was directly fighting against the massive enemy of NATO while the US and its allies have said they are supporting Ukraine's defense with military aid and unspecified intelligence sharing but not with boots on the ground meanwhile on the other side of the globe China continues to make threatening gestures toward Taiwan including recent armed jet intrusions of Taiwanese airspace following speaker Pelosi's trip to the island in 2022 and then speak speaker McCarthy's trip in 2023 following the more recent April trip China effectively closed taiwan's airspace with waves of fighter jets and for the first time made it seem like they were able to interdict any us support from the east of the island there is even talk that China might begin to require ships transiting the Taiwan straight to undergo boarding and searching which Taiwan says they will vigorously oppose are we close to a hot war first off let's make one thing clear the US and China are not on the verge of War on March 31st 23 General Mark Millie the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff said I don't think at this point I would put the possibility of imminent war in the likely category and I think that the rhetoric itself can overheat the environment however General Millie did admit that it is possible that you could have an incident or some other trigger event that could lead to uncontrolled escalation so it's not impossible that incident would most likely evolve around an attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan President X has publicly stated that he wants the people's Liberation Army the pla to be prepared to take Taiwan by force as early as 2027 so that risk clearly does exist let's take a look at the two main theaters of such a potential War NATO and the European elements of the United States's forces AR raay against Russia and the US forces in the Pacific mostly Naval forces against the might of the Chinese Army and Navy of course such a comparison will not include the opposing nuclear forces any of the combatants have enough Warheads to turn vast swaths of the world into unlivable nuclear Wasteland for the purposes of this comparison we will hope that all sides would agree not to resort to such catastrophic weapons the opposing military strengths in Europe before Russia's invasion of Ukraine most of the world perceived Russia as the second most powerful military in the world they had massive numbers of tanks and artillery their Air Force was seen as a peer with the American Air Force and their Navy was capable and feared even if it didn't have comparable numbers to the US Navy Russia's military Fiasco in Ukraine has proven their tanks are outdated and poorly designed their Logistics vanish once they leave their rail Network and their Air Force has been fragile enough that they don't dare fly over Ukrainian territory for fear of being shot down the only two legs of their military that remain unbowed by these defeats are its artillery still numerous though notably inaccurate and its nuclear forces which remain unused and still unproven as of April 2023 the widely respected research organization orx has documented and confirmed an astounding 10,000 vehicle losses by the Russian Armed Forces including over 1,00 main battle tanks half of what it reportedly had pre- Invasion along with 830 armored fighting Vehicles 2200 infantry fighting Vehicles 800 pieces of artillery 79 aircraft 81 helicopters and 12 surface vessels including the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet the Slava class guided missile Cruiser mosa this is in addition to an estimated 200,000 Russian military casualties with anything between 45,000 to 50,000 killed in action these numbers are incredibly high from just over a year of fighting and are far greater even than what Russia suffered in its 10-year losing war in Afghanistan the losses are so high that in early 2023 Russia began returning 75-year-old t-54 55s into service the equivalent of the US using Korean War era m47s the Russia also lost a reported 1500 officers including 160 top level generals and Colonels and it's clear the once-feared Russian military is a shell of its former self standing opposite the vastly depleted and shaken Russian military is NATO now more united and stronger than at any time in its 74e history with finland's admission into nato in April of 2023 as its 31st signatory Nation the organization can now boast a combined troop strength of just over 3 and5 million soldiers Airmen and sailors that includes however the US and its 1.4 million strong standing army not all of which would be fighting in Europe and turkey's 425,000 not the most committed of NATO's members that means the rest of NATO's 29 members contribute only 1.7 million troops total France Germany the United Kingdom Poland and Italy each have 160,000 or more active Personnel while other countries have smaller forces to rely on it must be stated though NATO considers itself a defensive organization how involved they'd be beyond their own borders is anyone's guess it's important to note that the current war in Ukraine has shown that the NATO members mostly led by Poland and the US are willing to supply lethal aid from missiles to artillery to tanks and fighter jets to a nons signatory nation whose defense is of a vital interest to nearby NATO members since Russia launched its invasion in February of 2022 NATO members have increased both their military budgets and pledged a greater amount of military spending per capita they've also benefited from sending Ukraine their Soviet era tanks and fighter jets which have been replaced with upgraded models many of them being state-of-the-art models from other member nations like the US's F-35 stealth fighter and m182 Abrams Tanks NATO can also count on around 1500 leopard twos and about 2500 M1 Abrams main B tanks the majority of which are M1 a2s with the rest being the earlier m1a1s with an additional 800 or so British Challenger 2s and French lir and arietes and while the number of aircraft on both the NATO and Russian sides appear about equal NATO forces employ more fourth and fifth generation Fighters like the F35 and the improved and updated versions of the F-16 while Russia is still reliant on more outdated Mig 29s introduced in 1982 Mig 31s introduced in 1981 and the Sue 27s introduced used in 1985 these three plane types alone account for more than 750 of their total 1100 available pre-invasion fighter aircraft a disproportionate number of outdated and non-m modernized platforms and as has been seen in Ukraine many of these aircraft have not been maintained sufficiently in order for them to be combat ready anytime soon it's clear that a war between only the European forces of NATO and the struggling military of Russia would be a one-sided Affair but how would China Fare against a mostly us Force the opposing using forces in the Pacific China it should be obvious has not suffered from an equivalent loss of military strength as Russia has over the past year in fact the modernization and expansion of its military has been impressive and has caused its neighbors like Japan Australia India and the Philippines to increase their own military expenditures yet China is still missing major components that will allow it to go toe-to-toe with the US Navy these missing elements suggest China would be better off waiting at least 5 years and possibly as much as 10 years before it initiates an open military confrontation with the West for example the people's Liberation Army Navy the plan currently operates 25 of its modern 10,000 ton type 52d destroyers with its own version of the Aegis type radar system along with eight of the more advanced 13,000 ton type 55A destroyers along with six of the earlier 7,000 ton type 52 c ships there are up to 12 additional destroyers currently under construction but while these ships are designed specifically for missile and aircraft defenses they've yet to deploy with the planned HQ 26 medium range ship to- a missile system which was based on the Russian 9k 37 book first developed in 1972 this new missile system is reportedly equivalent to the US sm3 missile used by the AIS ballistic missile defense system and was expected to be able to engage short and medium-range ballistic missiles cruise missiles and both manned and unmanned aircraft out to 400 km however this capability is expected to be implemented around a year or two from first deployment and will be even longer forts deployed fleetwide until then China's missile defense destroyers like the type 52 and 55 will have to make doe with the upgraded HQ 16b with a reported maximum range of only 70 km A system that dates from 2011 the biggest weakness in the plan of course is its aircraft carrier Fleet they currently operate three carriers the oldest being a '90s era Ukrainian built Russian design ship named the LA ning with its ski jump ramp which is also a staple of its second carrier the type 002 Shandong the CL ning isn't really considered a Frontline carrier and is relegated to the role of training carrier its third carrier the fujan currently being fitted out is equipped with Advanced electromagnetic catapults similar to those on the US super carrier USS Gerald R Ford some say copied directly from it but that means the plan will have to train its carrier pilots on two types of takeoffs and that'll need two different types of carrier planes to operate on those carriers its current training model the JL 9g a single engine twin seat aircraft first deployed in 2011 can be used to duplicate emergency Landings on any of its current carriers because it's too weak to take the continual pounding of carrier Landings and it's too underpowered to immediately take off in case of a missed Landing that leaves only simulated takeoffs and landings on groundbased mockups this inability to feel the true carrier trainer has led to a huge deficit in trained carrier pilots the problem with the planed trainer is just the opposite of its carrier combat aircraft the j15 flying shark which was mocked by Russia for trying to be a back engineered version of of a s33 prototype the T10 K3 which they bought from Ukraine back in 2001 at a reported 172 tons its upgraded version is now thought to be the world's heaviest carrier born fighter in comparison the US Navy's fa18 weighs only 145 tons the j15 suffers from either having to carry less than optimal fuel giving it less range or less Armament giving it less lethality if it intends to take off from the two ski jump equipped carriers it has since been nicknamed the flopping fish by the normally reserved Chinese press for its underwhelming performance China's begun deployment of the shangdu j20 somewhat comparable to the US's F-22 stealth fighter and have produced around 200 of them but this aircraft cannot be adapted to carriers and remains a standard land-based air superiority fighter China hopes to make up the difference in carrier forces with hypersonic missiles though their reliability and Readiness is still under discussion at present there's speculation but no confirmation that China is building a fourth carrier though at least one recent satellite image suggests a fourth might be under construction but the plan doesn't have enough carrier pilots for its two current Frontline carriers let alone a fourth in comparison the US currently operates 11 carrier strike groups Each of which is comprised of one of its nuclear propulsion nits or Ford class super carriers able to field 70 to 80 aircraft one or two tyon deroga class Aegis guided missile cruisers for air defense and coordination two lamps capable warships focusing on anti-submarine and surface Warfare and 2 to3 Arley Burke class guided missile destroyers each strike group is accompanied by assorted Logistics and support ships and an undisclosed number of nuclear powered attack submarines usually one or two that coordinate with each strike group the new Ford class super carriers currently in use by the US Navy are undoubtedly the most powerful warships ever produced with one in service and four more planned or currently under construction to be delivered between 2024 and 2034 there are literally no carrier groups of such lethality in any Navy in the world though the British and French Navy do have their own carrier battle groups with somewhat comparable strengths the US also deploys several amphibious ready groups built around the WASP class amphibious assault ships in essence a small carrier which can handle six Fighters like the F-35 lightning 2 and up to 24 helicopters like the Cobra gunship and the vf22 Osprey transport Vehicles the amphibious ready groups also include a landing platform dock ship LPD from the San Antonio class capable of deploying up to 600 troops and 14 amphibious assault vehicles and a landing ship dock LSD like the Harper Ferry class and the Whidby Island class Landing ships which can load and unload conventional landing craft and helicopters these amphibious ready groups can also launch dozens of autonomous drones like the X-47B normally two to three arcs are forward deployed one in the Mediterranean Sea or the Persian Gulf Indian Ocean region and one or two in the Western Pacific Ocean area currently one Arc is based out of saso and okanawa at Japan the args are usually attached to a carrier strike Group which provides protection for them from both land and seab based attacks the US can also count on 26 Los Angeles class three Seawolf class and 21 Virginia class nuclear powered attack submarines as well as dozens of ballistic missile submarines each with ICBM capable launch tubes on the other hand the plan operates six Shang class nuclear submarines and 40 older diesel electric submarines of much lower capability many experts point to the plan Superior superiority in total numbers of ships over the US Navy 340 to 300 but we must consider that the plan's numbers include 150 Patrol craft which are more equivalent to the US Coast Guard's Cutters designed for Coastal engagements only and not really capable of the kind of Blue Water Combat the main Naval units would engage in in addition while the US Navy appears perfectly capable of handling the current plan on its own any shooting war will likely involve other countries that are either wary of or outright opposed to Chinese Naval power projection including Japan South Korea the Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Australia New Zealand and India following continued efforts by China to claim the entire South China Sea as their own personal swimming pool each of these countries has begun to beef up their own Naval might Japan for instance is building two of the largest destroyers in the world at 20,000 tons they dwarf even the US's 16,000 ton Zumwalt destroyers these will complement and support Japan's two new isumo and kaga carriers converted from previous helicopter Destroyer and will operate the f-35b Joint Strike Fighter once complete the two carriers will be Japan's first since the second world war along with Japan's increasing Naval might Australia has entered into a long-term agreement with the US and Great Britain to build a fleet of state-of-the-art nuclear powered attack submarines India has also increased its own Naval strength while the country is still aching from violent confrontations instigated by China along its northern Himalayan border China's true Achilles heel and that brings up the most crucial component of any possible shooting War involving China the fact that the Country Must import 70 to 75% of all their oil and natural gas through a long Naval route from the Baltic through the Atlantic and past Africa India and Indonesia if the us or its Pacific allies wanted to interdict the flow of petrolum to China and such a lengthy supply chain would be impossible for China to protect then China would be looking at a 3-month delay before its Countrywide Truck transport system would shut down due to a lack of fuel and 6 months before it ran out of the necessary components for the production of fertilizers which its Farmers desperately need their economy would collapse within a year and massive famine would break out even if they did manage to hold off the superior US Navy this dramatic and inevitable failure of their economy and the catastrophic famine that would follow might be the main reason why China isn't looking to launch a full-scale war anytime soon not only is it a heavy importer of raw petroleum it's also the world's largest importer of food between 2000 and 2020 the country's food self-sufficiency ratio decreased from 9 93.6% to 65.8% China's leaders know that if it cannot win a war outright in a very short period of a few months and the vast capabilities of the US Navy let alone its numerous Pacific allies suggest that this just isn't a reliable possibility then they are dooming their country to losing their position as the second most powerful economy in the world with a disastrous famine soon to follow the lessons of the Ukraine war are also a stark reminder that a determined well equipped country no matter how small can resist an invader far more easily with today's Advanced technological weapons and while Ukraine has done a phenomenal job in gaining that capability in a mere 8 years since the first Russian invasion of 2014 Taiwan has been preparing itself for a Chinese Invasion for more than 70 years they're also a much more technologically capable nation and have a large 80m moat of an ocean that China would have to navigate in case of an invasion this would not be an easy crossb incursion that Russia attempted and failed but it would require dozens of landing craft easy targets for missiles and waiting artillery the fragility of a Russia China Alliance in addition to logistical problems of overcoming the US Navy in the watery mode around Taiwan China faces another hurdle the weakness of any long-term alliance with Russia an alliance that would merely be a castle built upon sand any full-scale War short of a nuclear engagement would find Russia's military virtually destroyed within the first few weeks of the conflict's launch leaving China virtually alone the Ukrainian Invasion has spotlighted why Russia is nowhere near near the military Pier to the US China or even NATO that people thought it was as previously mentioned the Russian armed forces have lost over 10,000 military vehicles including upwards of 1,900 main battle tanks along with around 200,000 troops the main reason they threaten the West so often with nuclear weapons is because they know they never stand a chance against the combined forces of NATO which have more advanced equipment and better trained troops and now might actually hold a numerical Advantage as well there are multiple reasons for the failure of the Russian military first and foremost is the endemic corruption that riddles every layer of the Russian government including the military there are estimates that corruption has cost from 25 to 30% of Russia's total annual GDP and the sanctions Russia has endured since the start of the war has caused a massive drain of its remaining economy not only is Russia's economy collapsing due to the surprisingly efficient Western sanctions but that smaller economy spending on its military is actually much less than the projected numbers the sanctions have also Shrunk the Russian economy to the size of Italy and now puts it behind the individual states of California Texas or New York Russia's nominal $ 1.4 trillion GDP is miniscule when you compare to the eu's combined economic strength of about 15.280 trillion more than 40% of the total world GDP Russia will simply never be able to outspend the EU and its NATO counterpart much less the US and EU combined second Russia's never had a coherent parent NCO training program Russia has lost at least 150 officers of colonel rank and above simply because their orders have to be passed almost directly from the leadership to the Frontline troops the members of NATO the US and even China understand that the sergeants and other ncos have to have the independent authority to assess the war from the front lines and make immediate and effective changes in response Russia has never had that level of Independence which leads their military to dogmatic inflexible attacks that usually require masses of Tanks waves of infantry and massive artillery bombardments none of which are effective in a modern Battlefield environment that is overwatched by drones surveillance satellites and reconnaissance ples third Russia has never had the ability to manage their Logistics at any distance from their rail network the ignominious 40m long traffic jam north of ke from late February to March of 2022 was one glaring example of how their military cannot perform the simple task of keeping their tanks and transports full of fuel and moving this lack of logistics has been further exacerbated by the introduction of high Mars longrange rocket artillery systems which can hit targets over 50 Mi away and newer smart ammunition including ground launch small diameter bombs gsdb which can hit targets 93 m away these have been used to great success by the Ukrainian forces against Russian Depot that have often been placed too close to the front mostly due to their lack of logistical transport capabilities the inherent weakness of an unequal partnership there are additional signs that China is aware of Russia's much weak weaker role in any potential Alliance and has been capitalizing on this inequality for some time now at first it was the Soviet Union that held a predominant role in any bilateral negotiations allowing them to bully China into accepting unequal agreements things got so bad that the two countries almost launched a major war over a border dispute in 1969 one of several border disputes between the two countries since the 1920s but Russia eventually decided it was better to arm the Chinese government in order to have an ally against the West China however decided on its own that it'd be better to copy Andor steal whatever they could get rather than pay the full price for products coming from the Soviet Union starting in the 1990s China has openly copied or stolen Russian technology leading at times to Russia having to swallow their pride as China sold knockoffs of their own Frontline equipment for example in 1996 China debuted the j11 aircraft the first fighter made after the fall of the Soviet Union to feature significant Russian input at first it was an officially licensed chinese-made copy of the Russian su27 multi-roll fighter who sales were welcomed by the cash poor post-soviet State before long however China canceled their agreement and began producing the aircraft independently eventually building over 400 unauthorized j1s equaling an economic loss to the USSR of more than $10 billion Russia continues to sell its best or almost best military gear to China even though they know the technology is likely to be copied reducing what little technological superiority Russia still maintains over China the policy dilemma has been compounded by the post Ukraine effect on Russia's struggling manufacturing sector which has left the shrinking Russian economy increasingly reliant on China's much larger economic base further eroding any remaining compatibility in their relationship more recently president X has tried to bring China to the Forefront in worldwide diplomacy so when the UN held a vote to condemn the Russian invasion China surprisingly abstained from the 141 to5 vote to condemn The Invasion and in fact was a key leader of 34 other countries who also abstained this was the first time that China had a chance to publicly support their quote partner and they openly refused this hands-off approach demonstrates China's desire to maintain its currently neutral stance regarding the Ukraine war in hopes of trying to establish beijing's bid for Global Leadership but they can't do that if they Supply lethal Aid to Russia so they refused to supply such support despite Putin's pleas to the contrary when President Putin and she met in Russia of March 2023 Putin had hoped that she would offer a deal to create a direct pipeline between the two countries making China more reliant on Russian crude oil and natural gas and giving Russia a direct buyer for their primary export but no such agreement was reached she did say publicly that China and Russia would continue to resolutely uphold the fundamental Norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter but that statement blatantly ignores the illegality of Russia's invasion in the first place which directly violates the Charter's core precepts Putin's hopes for any concrete agreements for Aid or Mutual development never materialized the summit was summed up by historian Seri renko with an old Chinese proverb loud thunder but few raindrops he then modified that statement as scratch that even the Thunder wasn't all that loud in fact the Putin shei meetings actually caused further support for Ukraine as Japanese prime minister kashida used the opportunity to make a surprise trip to Ukraine to meet with President zinski despite she's efforts to lead China into a role of Peacekeeper and World negotiator he still has to deal with the Hawks and his own government on the heels of the Moscow Summit the Guang Ming daily wrote an extensive article more of a semiofficial position piece declaring the Ford knows that China says they will not put up with number one the US should not make irresponsible remarks on normal exchanges between sovereign states number two the US should not compare China Russia relations with a small circle of us allies number three the US should not undermine China's efforts to promote peace talks on the Ukraine issue number four the US should stop using the Ukraine crisis as an excuse to attack and sanction China some of this rhetoric is no doubt simply strong words but they may also signal an effort to lay the groundwork for China to ramp up its military support for Russia's War though so far there's no evidence of that it gets worse for Russia in addition to everything else that bodess ill for Russia president XI might not be willing to go all in on supporting a leader of Russia whose future appears very uncertain Putin's been rumored to be in ill health for years he was filmed walking with a limp when he visited Crimea in March of 2023 and in April there were widespread reports that he had suffered from intense head pain a numb tongue and blurred Vision there have been numerous indications he might be suffering from Parkinson's disease which manifests as an uncontrollable shaking in the extremities primarily the hands and feet and there are additional signs he might be undergoing chemotherapy which can result in excessive weight gain there's also signs that Putin has killed off anyone near him that might pose a threat to his continued dominance of the Russian government since just before the invasion of Ukraine over 40 of Russia's top managers businessmen and highlevel officials have died under unclear but very suspicious circumstances those deaths include being found in apparent murder suicides like vladislav avv vice president of gazprom bank and his pregnant wife and 13-year-old daughter who were found dead in a Moscow apartment while a former top manager of novatech Serge prosa was found hanged at his Villa in Spain with his wife and 18-year-old daughter also found murdered in the house and pav shelikof director of communications at digital Logistics LLC a subsidiary of Russian Railways supposedly shot himself at his home in Moscow the deaths have become so numerous that one media Source has given the wave a nickname sudden Russian death syndrum but by and far the most conspicuous means of death has been the archaic mid 18th century habit of defenestration that is falling out of a high window Ravel magof vice president of Lukoil fell out of one at the central clinical Hospital of the presidential Administration in Moscow and in February 2023 Marina Yanina head of the financial department of the defense Ministry was found dead after supposedly falling from a 16th FL floor of her apartment even when a suspect is in government custody their lives aren't safe most recently Igor shikuro Deputy General director of firm yakut Gena was discovered dead of unknown causes in his cell in a Detention Center in yakut Siberia on April 5th 2023 the extremely high number of potentially murdered Rivals paints Russia in a bad light an unstable dictatorship afraid of its own best and brightest while making enemies of its own nent leadership couple that with Putin's rumored ill health and it's just one more reason why president XI may want to wait a year or two before cementing any permanent relationships with whoever's in charge in Russia post Ukraine what will Russia and Ukraine do China and Russia are in an unenviable position both countries are seeing an inevitable shrinking of their populations with China admitting an over counting of its population during the last census by as much as 100 million the Pew Research Center forecasts decline from 1.4 billion people this year to 1.3 billion by 2050 and a staggering reduction to below 800 Million by 2100 that's according to the un's medium variant or middle-of the road projection Russia's upside down population pyramid is no better they're already experiencing a massive brain drain as a repercussion from its Ukraine Fiasco which was followed by as many as 400,000 young men who left to avoid the first conscription call up in September 2022 combine that with an aging population a lower birth rate and a decrease in life expectancy of 15 years since early 2022 and Russia's population is in freef fall both these troubled countries might believe then that their only window to have enough young males to support a war is rapidly shrinking that leaves Putin and she with a difficult if not impossible decision launch a war now that they're not ready for and probably can't win or wait a few years when their populations and economies are even less capable of enduring such hardships it's an unenviable decision for any leader to make on February 24th 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to make his mark on Russian history by restoring Ukraine to a puppet state and pushing NATO back and away from its borders instead President Putin will go down in history as the man who made NATO great again and even added additional countries to its roster but why is Russia so scared of Finland and Sweden joining NATO the Russian invasion of Ukraine was provoked in large part by the nation's refusal to submit to the Kremlin Authority after a presidential coup in 2014 Ukraine looked like it was on a path to join the west and leave Russia behind enshrined in its Constitution was an amendment that Ukraine would pursue NATO membership as a matter of highest priority and work began on meeting the requirements for entry into the alliance for Russia's President Vladimir Putin this was beyond unacceptable historically Russia has suffered greatly from European Invaders ranging from the French during the Napoleonic Wars to the Germans in both world wars after the second world war though Eastern Europe was severely weakened and an opportunity opened up for the Soviet Union to expand its sphere of influence all the way to Germany itself this wasn't just a power grab though it was a matter of vital National Security for the Russians by creating a slew of client states across Eastern Europe the Soviet Union had in essence created a buffer between itself and Western Europe now any Invasion could be met outside of native territory saving the lives of millions of Russian citizens and preserving the economy of the nation a buffer between itself and a potential Invader is especially important because Russia's strategic position in Europe is extremely weak the nation sits at the Eastern end of the great European plane a vast stretch of flat territory that is imp possible to defend historically Russian forces have struggled to hold off Invaders coming from its West as the landscape offers few natural defensive features and with the Advent of modern high-speed Warfare the Strategic picture only grew Grimmer for the Russians during World War II the only thing slowing the German advances was sheer grit and determination from the Russian Defenders who tried to choke the mighty German war machine by throwing hordes of men at it after the collapse of the Soviet Union freed former client states like Lithuania laia and Estonia were all quick to pursue NATO membership for them it was a matter of national survival the Soviet Union might have collapsed but nobody was foolish enough to think that the new Russian Federation had simply given up on its desire to control Eastern Europe for existing NATO members though the consideration was a difficult one technically the three Baltic states offer very little to the alliance and are more of a liability than an asset except in one very important regard their location on Russia's flank adopting the three Baltic countries into NATO now opened up a wide front on the Russian Northwestern flank which through Russia's Force disposition wildly off balance for decades NATO had contended with very real possibilities that in case of a war they would be unable to stop a concentrated attack across the infamous F the Gap in Germany with Norway offering no opportunity for NATO to seriously threaten the Soviet Union from its tiny border with the Union the Soviets were able to concentrate the bulk of their Firepower in East Germany for a decisive and brutal attack Straight Into the Heart of NATO after the adoption of Estonia lvia and Lithuania into NATO however the alliance now could threaten Russia right on its own doorstep across a very wide front and this forced the new Russian Federation to more widely disperse its forces to add to Russia's problems the terrain across the Baltic front is very poorly suited for defensive operations requiring even more troops to secure its Border in the region now Russia's strategic position was greatly weakened as it was forced to disperse its forces across numerous probable engagement areas it also put the military Enclave of kenrad in serious Jeopardy as NATO could threaten it from the south through Poland and from the north through Lithuania finally it severely weakened Russia's position in the Baltic Sea as NATO ships had friendly ports across the Eastern side of the Baltic Sea and could easily bottleneck the Russian Fleet much like the British did the Germans in both World Wars the balance of power in Europe had been irrevocably thrown a skew and now favored the NATO alliance in case of a war the addition of Ukraine would have been an unmitigated disaster as now Russia would be flanked by NATO both to the Northwest and the South with Moscow just a few hundred miles in either direction for hostile forces even more importantly Ukraine's Ascension to Nato would have given the alliance complete and unmitigated control over the Black Sea shutting Russian Black Sea ports off from the world and giving the alliance incredible control over the sea routs that Russia relies on for both imports and exports the military invasion of Ukraine has for now at least put a stop to Ukraine's joining of either the EU or NATO but in response Sweden and Finland two Nations that have remained staunchly neutral are now in very serious discussions about joining the alliance in fact by the time you watch this video they may have already expressed publicly their desire to do so Finland has a troubled history with Russia during World War II the Soviet Union invading Finland under the opes of increasing security for the important sea port of St Petersburg at first Stalin gave the fins an ultimatum grant us several dozen miles of Border territory so we can ensure the security of St Petersburg then named lenrad an exchange the Soviets would Grant Finland several miles of completely useless territory along the northern border Finland naturally refused and Stalin used this as an excuse for war historians debate whether Stalin ever meant to fully capture Finland or not though the evidence is strong that he did given that he enacted a puppet Finnish communist government in occupied territories plus the molotov Riven trop packed with Germany meant the Soviets didn't need to fear German intervention nor a possible German threat from the south freeing them up for a full invasion of Finland the capture of Finland would have granted them access to finland's natural resources and allowed them to establish greater control over the Baltic Sea however ever Stalin's ambition would never come to pass as Finland proved to be a lot tougher than the Soviets had thought Finnish resistance fought a staunch defensive war and terrain that heavily favored it however it was largely the Soviet Union's own military that led to a ceasefire 3 months later with meager territorial gains Stalin had in his paranoia carried out large purges of the Red Army eliminating many senior leaders whom he viewed as a threat to his rule while this might have secured his political office it left the Soviet Army without experienced professional officers replaced instead with politically indoctrinated and loyal Stooges who cared more about ensuring political loyalty than actually discipline and training the price to the Soviet Union was great in Manpower and resources though it did win approximately 9% of finland's territory more than originally asked for however its International standing was severely hurt which in turn affected just how much Aid it would later receive in its war against Germany perhaps more tragic of all for the Soviets though is the fact that the war proved to Hitler that the Soviet Union was a weak and effective power a clumsy giant with a large military but not good at wielding it this convinced Hitler that invading the Soviet Union was possible after all even while at war with the Western allies and would cost the Soviets millions of lives given its history with the Soviets Finland remained neutral throughout the Cold War and sought instead to appease Moscow by establishing bilateral relations while it cooperated with NATO forces and international missions it did not wish to join the alliance for fear of provoking its nextdoor neighbor Sweden likewise had maintained a policy of cooperation but neutrality with the West believing it to be safer to remain neutral than potentially provoke a Russian retaliation for 75 years public opinion polls in both Nations showed that the majority of citizens wished to remain neutral and it isn't hard to see why in case of War their countries were right next door to Russia While most of NATO was still far from the Russian border the heaviest fighting of any War would be taking place on their soil however after February 24th the security situation in Europe has been completely Rewritten and public opinion polls mirror that with for the first time in their history a majority of Finnish and Swedish citizens wishing to join NATO the invasion of Ukraine has proven to the two longtime neutral countries that if Russia doesn't like what's going on inside your borders it's very likely to invite itself in and change matters how it sees fit now Finland and Sweden have a reason to fear that their neutrality is no longer a security guarantee and any prior agreement with Russia is essentially worthless after all Ukraine had an agreement with Russia to preserve its independence in exchange for Cold War era Soviet nuclear weapons left behind on its territory after the fall of the union for Russia Sweden and finland's accession to Nato would mean that it's essentially blocked from the Baltic Sea in case of hostilities now NATO members would threaten Russian ships on all sides and allow NATO navies to operate right off a Russia's own Shores by providing nearby replenishment and resupply American aircraft carriers could for instance operate safely inside the Baltic Sea for the first time in history after a thorough sweep of the Russian Baltic Fleet by NATO ships having two or more American super carriers parked right off its own Shore is a nightmare scenario for Russia as it would be for any country and the assession of the two Nordic countries to Nato would make this possible Finland and Sweden joining NATO also turns the entire Nordic Peninsula into a NATO Enclave effectively Heming in the Russians on two sides NATO air defense installations in Finland could seriously threaten deep parts of Russian territory limiting the use of Russ's Air Forces in case of a war it also places dozens of strategically important targets within striking range of NATO aircraft at the immediate onset of War forcing Russia to more widely disperse its defensive forces and weakening them while hampering its ability to launch offensive operations even more important though as Vladimir Putin sought to improve Russia's security situation against NATO finland's membership would mean that instead Putin created an additional 800 mies of vulnerability thanks to finland's Shared border with Russia this now places NATO forces less than 60 mi from St Petersburg and with easy Striking Distance of additional Russian targets to the north while Russia might have difficulty moving a few dozen miles into enemy territory to seize a major city NATO's Swift and agile military would have no similar difficulties and Putin knows this which is why he's so terrified of NATO gaining a significant presence so close to vulnerable Russian territory it's unlikely Sweden and Finland will be deterred from joining NATO thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine NATO itself has vowed to FastTrack the two country's memberships largely thanks to the fact that both Sweden and Finland already fulfill most of the requirements for membership native 's five requirements for membership include new members must uphold democratic values and enshrine protections for minority populations embracing and tolerating diversity new members must be making progress toward a market economy this is a Cold War era left over as potential new Eastern European members struggle to throw off the Soviet economic system forced on them military forces of new members must be under the firm control of Civilian authorities military dictatorships need not apply new members must respect the sovereignty of other nations and be good neighbors potential members must be working toward compatibility with NATO forces this means that their military command structure training and equipment must meet strict standards to ensure that a new member is not a liability in time of War equipment used by a new member must also show some degree of interoperability with other NATO members to ease the burden of logistics if 29 of the NATO members are using a specific caliber rifle but a 30th is using a different caliber it makes logistics for the 30th member much more difficult NATO members must be able to share and use equipment in time of War Sweden and Finland are both vibrant democracies with strong liberal values unlike authoritarian Russia their militaries are both very well equipped and extremely proficient easily meeting NATO training and operational standards membership into the alliance can be fast-tracked for both countries seeing as they so easily fit the NATO mold already however there is a fear that Vladimir Putin will retaliate before both countries can formally join NATO and enjoy Article 5 protection of the alliance he's already stated that there would be severe military and economic consequences if either Nation sought out NATO membership for this reason NATO has already approved temporary commitment to protect both Nations during the application process which could still take months this way Russia cannot bully or intimidate Sweden or Finland as they contemplate this momentous decision and the two nations are free to choose for themselves what path to take to National Security given Russia's performance in Ukraine it's highly unlikely that it will risk war against Finland and Sweden's completely modern militaries in order to prevent them from joining NATO right now Russia can only afford to lose one war at a time and even without NATO both Finland and Sweden working together could make a Russian attack against them an extremely costly one that would see little political or territorial gain given that the terrain itself is far more suitable for defensive operations it seems unlikely that Russia will seek to stop both countries assession via military means but it does not eliminate the threat of nuclear attack a recourse many fear Putin is more than capable of turning to in the face of his military aptitude without NATO membership Sweden and Finland are not covered under the American nuclear umbrella the way other nations are and remain vulnerable to this final and most dramatic of intimidation tactics on February 24th 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military campaign that would make him the greatest Russian leader since Peter the Great his bid to overthrow the Ukrainian government flip Ukraine back into its former Soviet era role as a puppet state and hurl NATO back from Russia's borders would be Putin's Master stroke after Decades of cunning manipulation one year later Putin succeeded in being remembered for centuries to come without any doubt as one of history's most catastrophic leaders the Russian military has been broken on Ukraine Shield proving it's nothing more than a paper tiger Russia is so politically and economically isolated it has slipped into a vassal State role for the clearly much more powerful China and NATO's border with Russia has not just doubled but in years will quadruple as the entire Alliance has affirmed that one day Ukraine will join NATO at this point you'd be forgiven for thinking the entire world was one huge simulation of a slapstick comedy but with finland's historic ascendance into NATO how is the new vulnerable member of the alliance going to defend its 832m border with its very honory Russian neighbors calling Finland vulnerable to Russian invasion is kind of a misnomer Finland is armed to the teeth it's basically the Alabama of Europe except in Finland a first date typically isn't with a family member the nation has one of the best militaries in the continent and with a neighbor like Russia it's no surprise while Central and Western Europe were spending decades drunk off the Cold War peace dividend Finland was sitting shoulder-to-shoulder with a neighbor that had already invaded it once on extremely flimsy pretenses in the 20th century and which would threaten to do so again in the ensuing decades stop us if you heard this one before but in 1939 the Soviet Union decided to invade Finland out of fears of its closer alignment with the west and a desire to reconquer provinces that Russia had lost after the collapse of the Russian Empire to their credit though the Soviets at the time had a legitimate concern over German aggression and had at first offered that Finland seed or lease islands in the Gulf of Finland to better protect the approach to lenrad today St Petersburg the Soviets also offered to trade territory along the border near Leningrad which was only miles away with territory further north but the fins refused partly because the territory they'd receive in return was generally considered worthless and because after witnessing Stalin's purges and force collectivization the general opinion of the Soviet Union amongst the fins was very poor after the signing of the molotov ribon trro pcta which modern Russian schools either don't teach or deny as anti-russian propaganda the Soviet Union was emboldened to take what it wanted from Finland by force when laia Lithuania and Estonia were all forced to accept an ultimatum at gunpoint allowing Soviet forces to be stationed on their territory Finland read the writing on the wall and was already quietly mobilizing its military a finished allegation was summoned to Moscow where the two sides discussed the exchange of territories along with their shared Border in order to meet the Soviet Union's demands for safety buffer for the city of Leningrad on November 29th 1939 though the nkvd carried out a false flag operation and shelled their own Border guard poost providing the Soviet Union with the excuse it needed to launch a war its goal was to capture large swaths of Finnish territory replac The Finnish government with a pro Moscow one and strengthen its border security against the west by turning Finland into a buffer State again stop us if you heard this one before before the war started Soviet military command expected complete victory in just a few short weeks while some Russian generals thought that more military planning was required the general opinion was the war would be over so fast that Soviet troops were cautioned to make sure they didn't accidentally cross the border into Sweden with far superior numbers equipment and a horde of Tanks the Soviet Union was poised to Trout's much smaller Finland seriously got stop us anytime if you've heard this story before the Soviet Union would end up Victorious albeit at a staggering cost to itself modern estimates plac total dead for the Soviets between 50,000 and 120,000 while the Russian State military archive has confirmed 167,000 killed or missing between 1200 and 3543 tanks were lost with the Soviet Air Force losing a th000 aircraft Putin we mean Stalin would end up winning large swats of territory along the border but the Russian Federation we mean the Soviet Union's performance in the war was so bad that it lost significant International standing Hitler himself allegedly based his decision to invade the Soviet Union just a year and a half later on the Soviet Union's performance in Finland convinced that the Soviet military was corrupt poorly trained and ineffectual Russia's performance in Ukraine so closely mirrors the Soviet Union's performance in Finland that even today Hitler's probably considering invading modern Russia from Beyond the Grave Finland in return lost 25,000 dead or missing with about 43,000 wounded 20 to 30 tanks destroyed and 62 aircraft down Finland and the Soviets would go back at it again in a continuation War as Germany invaded the Soviet Union and after World War II Finland would adopt a policy of military neutrality in order to not antagonize the Soviet Union into a fresh Invasion however even after the fall of the Soviet Union Finland never forgot who its neighbor was while the rest of Europe was slashing defense budgets Finland knew that its National survival rested on its ability to resist resist A Renewed Russian invasion in order to avoid antagonizing Russia Finland has along with BFF Sweden held on to its cold war neutrality while Finland has been a longtime partner of NATO the nation would not consider membership out of fear of the atomic hissy fit that Russia would inevitably throw this was prudent policy and while a significant number of fins favored joining NATO the majority opposed any move to join the alliance believing that they could maintain the status quo with Russia indefinitely then on February 24th 2022 Putin went fullon idiot and public opinion on NATO completely changed after all if Russia was willing to launch a war to destroy itself against one neighbor then why wouldn't it launch a war to destroy itself against Finland as well approval for the country's membership was quickly granted not least of all because Finland would bring significant muscle to the alliance and it's that muscle that Finland is planning on using to provide protection from any Russian aggression across its 800m border Finland joining NATO is a strategic disaster for Russia not only does this double the length of its border with NATO but it now places NATO troops and aircraft within Striking Distance of some of Russia's most important military facilities from Finland NATO militaries can strike at at least four Russian nuclear facilities and most importantly at the Russian Northern Fleet HQ in Sor in the manans oblast which Now lies barely 40 m from NATO's new northern border this is one of Russia's most important Naval facilities as the port in nearby mormans is one of Russia's few warm water ports or ports that stay open year round because the polar jet stream doesn't allow them to freeze during the winter the cola highway or r21 highway is a vital link that connects mermans in the northern Fleet HQ with the rest of Russia running down to St Petersburg this is the only major link Russia has with these critical Naval and nuclear facilities including an Airfield for its strategic nuclear bombers from finland's border the highway in the double Rail Link that runs alongside it is only between 20 and 50 Mi away at various points well within the reach of NATO artillery after seeing the power and precision of high Mars and Ukraine Russia has big reasons to fear being hopelessly cut off from the entire strategically important mermans oask in case of war with NATO finland's air bases will also allow NATO to launch rapid strikes into Russia with little to no warning time in order to avoid completely upsetting Russia though one wonders why that's even a concern anymore NATO has promised not to move additional troops into Finland or to greatly expand military infrastructure in the country However the fact remains that from existing facilities NATO aircraft and groundbased longrange artillery like high Mars equipped with attack thems could strike Russian facilities and airfields while giving little to no warning to Russia and even less time for a successful Intercept in order to deter these strikes at Cash strapped Russia would have to basically maintain 247 air patrols along this new border with NATO and from what we've seen in Ukraine Russia is unlikely be able to do so not only is the Russian Air Force in a budget crisis but its aircraft are in a maintenance crisis as well with few experienced maintenance Personnel leading to numerous accidents during the Ukraine conflict Russian maintenance and Logistics are so bad already that crashed aircraft in Ukraine have been discovered with sensors either in stowed position or with pins and covers still attached preventing them from being used to not antagonize Russia NATO might have promised to not build additional facilities in Finland or move significant forces there but the truth is Finland doesn't really need much more Firepower to seriously threaten Russia on its own the Baltic countries have famously been seen as a strategic liability for NATO given their small militaries and proximity to Russia as well as the great difficulty in reaching them in case of a war with Russia but Finland is quite the opposite Finland brings so much Firepower to bear it's basically like Russia gave NATO a free and significant upgrade the first threat that Finland faces from Russia is not a military one but rather a manufactured Refugee one Russia has for years been weaponizing refugees in order to try to destabilize Europe in Syria it purposefully targeted civilians both because Russia is an ineffective and morally corrupt military power but also because it was attempting to create an artificial Refugee crisis its constant attacks against civilians including schools and hospitals were not accidents or simple cruelty but rather part of the strategy unsafe in their own cities tens of thousands of syrians fled the country with most looking to enter Europe recently Belarus began to offer flights from Middle Eastern and African countries along with the promise of tourist visas for migrants once they land they are ushered to the border with Poland where thousands have gathered many have snuck through with the goal of getting into the EU in order to build a better life for themselves in response Poland is still constructing a massive fence along its border with bellarus now there are fears that Russia will do the same with Finland and finland's already in the process of building a massive fence along its border with Russia as a cautionary measure but the twist is that now thousands of Russians are also attempting to flee Russia in order to avoid conscription and many are looking to neighboring Finland if Russia's looking to get Rowdy though Finland is more than capable of putting up a significant fight long enough for NATO to respond and push the Russians back across the border without Finland losing significant ground unlike most other European countries Finland saw a need to continue conscription even to the Modern Age however this was due to its neutrality and knowing that much like Ukraine in case of a Russian invasion NATO was unlikely to get directly involved now that Finland has the protection of NATO it is possible that the nation will relax its conscription or do away with it altogether opting instead for a smaller professional military force that can be rapidly bolstered by NATO forces today though Finland still trains 21,000 conscripts every single year who then rotate into its ready reserve of 28,000 of this pool 10,000 are called up annually for refresher training and in case of War Finland can relax its conscription standards and call upon as many as 900,000 military age personnel with at least some military training from their past service its active duty professional Force consists of approximately 24,000 spread out across its Air Force Army and Navy as of 2023 Finland has approximately 239 tanks with 179 of them in ready status its tank forces consist of the german-made leopard and are almost evenly split between the more modern 286 version and the still very cap 2 A4 version currently Finland lacks any mine clearing leopards as they were all donated to Ukraine but the nation is looking at either purchasing more leopards in the near future or acquiring the American Abrams going forward to support its infantry Finland has a force of 212 infantry fighting vehicles with half being Swedish built CV 930s and the other half being Soviet BMP 2s modernized with new cannons thermal sites and even multi-spectral camouflage to help them hide from thermal sensors in the wake of a global heart shortage for Soviet era equipment due to the war in Ukraine Finland is likely to begin replacing its bmps with Western made ifvs perhaps by acquiring more Swedish built CV 90s or possibly American Bradley the nation operates a significant amount of Soviet era equipment that it'll soon be looking to replace this was due to its desire to Plate the Soviet Union by opting to purchase military equipment from it during the Cold War over Western Equipment when you're stuck between two superpowers it's prudent to make the one sitting directly on your Border happy its Ground Forces operate approximately 400 armored personnel carriers or battle taxis all of Soviet origin the mtlb makes up the bulk of these apcs and are mostly equipped with heavy machine guns to support infantry however a battle Taxi's job isn't to provide direct fire support except in the case of emergency rather it's meant to quickly bring troops to the fight and evacuate casualties their much thinner armor over even an infantry Fighting Vehicle makes them unsuited for lingering on the front lines for two long however the Finn Fleet of apcs allows its infantry great mobility and their track design makes them perfect for rugged Finnish terrain as finland's main strategy to fight off a Russian invasion would be to immediately sever highways and other major roadways tracked vehicles are a matter of necessity for a nation geared to fight an asymmetric defensive war against a far superior power however the nation still maintains a significant number of wield apcs as well with nearly 700 domestic built Vehicles these vehicles can help speed troops to various points on the front or help provide fast Recon over roadways or some of finland's flatter terrain however upon arriving at the front getting troops to the actual fighting is best left to track vehicles or its smaller Fleet of infantry fighting Vehicles Finland is also equipped with over 400 tracked articulated allterrain transport Vehicles perfect for wintertime conditions when Finland could expect to be fighting Russia to a crawl along its rugged border during the winter War a significant amount of fighting took place in undeveloped areas as Russia sought to pursue a series of disastrous flanking Maneuvers on the finished defensive line at a great cost to itself these tracked vehicles are perfect for resupplying forces in forests and even deep snows where the only other option would be to physically carry supplies on foot where Finland really shines though is in its artillery with one of the largest artillery forces in all of Europe aside from Russia this is of little surprise though given that the nation was facing the prospect of literal hordes of Russian tanks and infantry and could not count on its Air Force to fly against the Russian Aerospace forces and deliver ground fires with about 650 howitzers finland's most numerous gun is the Soviet built 122 h63 with 474 in service it's an old gun dating back to the 1960s but artillery is one of the few pieces of military kit that changes little over the years improvements in Material Science can make for more robust tubes but as Ukraine has proved even half a century old artillery is deadly the 122 mm h63 has a maximum range of 9.6 M or 13.6 Mi with rocket assisted projectiles however as Finland integrates with NATO it'll be looking to replace its artillery stocks with 155 mm pieces the most commonly used NATO artillery piece this helps simplify Logistics and offers increased range and lethality over finland's current 122 mm stockpile Finland already operates about 170 155 mm pieces upgrades over its Soviet era stocks self-propelled artillery is very important on the modern Battlefield especially against such a massive artillery power as Russia by being self-propelled these units can shoot and Scoot loosing a volley of rounds before making a hasty getaway to avoid counter battery fire they can also move to unexpected locations to deliver devastating volleys before disappearing again this is what made Ukraine's use of himar so revolutionary allowing the nation to quickly Drive close to the front lines to deliver Precision fire and then immediately get away before Russian forces can react while Russia has claimed it has destroyed all the high Mars batteries given to Ukraine at least twice over now the US has confirmed that not a single one has been lost in combat yet Finland like most of the world has its eyes on the high Mars but for now the nation operates approximately 120 self-propelled artillery Vehicles most of these are Soviet era 122 mm pieces which Finland is even now replacing with 155 mm Vehicles developed by South Korea South Korea is in the process of delivering a shipment of 48 used vehicles reti ired from its own military and 10 have been ordered on top of the 48 expected to be delivered by 2024 with another 38 and yet another follow-up order the option for an additional 48 is still on the table allowing Finley to quickly retire dated Soviet era equipment while growing in lethality artillery is excellent for long duration sustained fire meant to destroy or suppress enemy positions but rocket artillery combines lethality precision and speed designed to overwhelm an enemy force and strike so quickly that soldiers and vehicles don't have time to disperse or get to cover rocket artillery is best used against concentrations of enemy forces Finland only operates about 54 mlrs systems but its 35 122 Rock m1s give it a high degree of Mobility comparable to the US made High Mars albeit with much smaller unguided Rockets it does however have a small stockpile of Israeli made acular Rockets though it's unknown if these are guided or unguided versions it's us made m70s only number at 29 with 12 for driver training but come equipped with the infamous gmlrs Rockets used by Ukrainian High Mars and at2 Rockets designed to disperse large amounts of anti-tank mines an order for 70 extended range gmlrs was placed in February just in time for the Russian invasion of Ukraine but it's unknown if the order has been filled as of yet Russian military Doctrine states that its air Cavalry must be ready to provide ground fire support for infantry within 15 minutes this has proven to be a liability AB ility against a foe equipped with modern long-range Precision fire as the war in Ukraine is shown and the absolute disaster at choba which embarrassed the Russians to the point of becoming a Ukrainian meme further cemented this failure into the history books here Russian helicopters were shelled over half a dozen times with the destruction of many helicopters that were simply replaced after each attack but due to strict adherence to doctrine that State's helicopters must be within 15 minutes of the front lines the Russians simply kept repeating the mistake in F in their own losses Finland is fully aware of Russia's use of its helicopter Fleet to support its infantry and has invested in a large amount of short-range air defenses and Man portable systems such as the American Stinger it has 36 wheel short-range air defense vehicles with each of its 16 I 05s complemented by four man pad missiles to be used by the vehicle's crew eight batteries consisting of 24 nasm's launchers protect finland's Capital Region from Air attack but are mobile enough to be attached to Brigade level elements the further 200 us- made Stingers are dispersed across its infantry and soon Finland will field Israel's David sling air defense batteries which can intercept everything from Planes to drones to Tactical ballistic missiles in the sky Finland has a small but extremely capable air fleet having replaced its air inventory in 1995 with American F-18 Super Hornets given Russia's difficulties in the skies of Ukraine even the small Fleet would pose a significant challenge to Russia especially as the F-18 can be equipped with advanced American Radars and missiles unlike Ukraine's Mig Fleet which requires workarounds that often significantly reduce the capabilities of donated weapons such as the harm missiles donated by the US to destroy Russian Radars an F-18 is more of a match for anything in the Russian Arsenal today and is perfectly compatible with future American air-to-air missiles such as the a260 which allow Finland to strike first against any Russian aircraft however by 2026 Finland plans on Fielding a fleet of 64 F35 and if the F18 is a match for anything Russia can put in the sky the F35 is basically punching down of significant concern to Russia is the prospect of having dozens of american-built stealth aircraft on its northern border just miles away from some of the most important military sites while f-35s Are Not Invisible to radar they are built to defeat targeting radar and significantly reduce engagement distances with the longrange standoff weapon being developed in the US expected to be delivered well before its 2030 due date f-35s prowling right outside Russia's borders could be armed with weapons capable of delivering either conventional or nuclear warheads to targets as far as 500 km The Finnish Navy currently operates only a token surface combat force of eight missile boats and two mine layers its ascendants to the NATO alliance could open up options for acquiring larger combat vessels and even diesel submarines but it's unlikely Finland will be interested in doing so given that its most immediate threat is a land Invasion across its vast border with Russia the finished defense budget is better served procuring land combat systems the real victory for NATO though is access to finland's Coast which effectively shuts Russia out of the Baltic Sea completely turning any attempt to move ships out of St Petersburg into a Mad Dash out of a firing Gallery with anti- ship missile battery stationed on both sides of the Gulf of Finland with Sweden possibly joining NATO soon and access to gutland Russia's days in the Baltic are over Finland is well suited to defend itself from a Russian invasion in the short term with its military more than capable of slowing any Russian offensive to a crawl and buying enough time for a NATO rapid response Force to enter the fight having prepared to fight Russia on its own for nearly a century Finland is bringing a great deal of military expertise to the NATO alliance however Finland joining the alliance also gives NATO the ultimate High Ground against Russia and will act as a deterrent against any Russian aggression against very vulnerable Baltic states Estonia ltia and Lithuania no longer need to fear a feda compley attack by Russia as had been a major worry of Washington for two decades now Finland joining NATO is the single greatest National Security disaster for Russia in centuries as Putin has managed to undo 200 years of careful Russian military and political maneuvering to ensure Finnish neutrality with the invasion of Ukraine Putin has managed to put Russia at its most vulnerable position in modern history as NATO forces are now mere miles from some of Russia's most important military and commercial facilities with easy access to the r21 highway NATO can now cleanly sever Russia from the bulk of the northern Fleet and access to at least four nuclear deterrence facilities Putin's dream of being remembered by history is at last complete as he'll surely be remembered as one of the most foolish disastrous Russian leaders in the nation's history and that is a list with some tough competition here at the infographic show we come up with all kinds of interesting topics and ideas to research for your entertainment but sometimes we like answering a question directly from you the fan today we're going to look at a huge what if scenario submitted by fan Joi who asked us what would happen if the US were to pull out of NATO concern for an American withdrawal from NATO is not without precedent famously now president Trump often bemon the alliance during the 2016 election saying that the US should pull out of it and that it no longer served American interests to remain in NATO while that statement was not just completely factually incorrect It ultimately proved to be nothing more than political grandstanding for votes and the us today firmly remains in NATO yet American sentiments on both sides of the political aisle that European member states don't pull their fair share with the alliance are not without Merit per a 2014 agreement each nation is meant to fund its military at 2% of GDP with 20% of that spent on equipment after World War II the US was happy to Bear the majority cost of Defending Europe as European nations rebuilt themselves after World War II however over the next almost seven decades nations would consistently fail to meet funding goals and when President Trump took office in 2016 only Britain and the US were meeting that 2% goal today Greece Britain Estonia and Poland are the only Nations to meet or exceed 2% spending though 15 total nations of the 29 member states are on track to meet that goal sometime in the 2020s simply put many Americans are tired of bearing the cost of Defending Europe while Europeans seem generally disinterested in doing so in fact the atrophying of Europe's defense industry is largely thanks to the security umbrella that the US has provided for almost 7 decades and with thousands of American servicemen stationed across Europe European nations have traditionally seen little need to be responsible for their own defense past a token Force so what if America said enough is enough and decided to withdraw from NATO what would happen in the alliance and how could it Faire in a war against say China or Russia first if the US packed up all its toys and went home a whopping 75 % of military hardware on the continent would suddenly disappear along with about 50,000 troops the United States operates its military on a total war footing meaning that it dedicates resources to ensure Supremacy in all areas of warfare land sea space and cyberspace few other nations however match this capability and most NATO forces aside from France Italy Spain turkey and the UK don't have a diverse enough military to carry out a true combined arms war against a modern adversary such as Russia the most immediate problem NATO would face would be a severe lack of space-based communications and intelligence assets as the majority of NATO's space resources are American and American units process and disseminate this information to Nato Partners the second major obstacle for NATO would be a lack of Transportation Assets in our previous video the United States versus the world we showed you that in total global war against the US the American Military would be able to fight the world's militaries to a draw and prevent any of the American Homeland this is due to two factors the United States Navy and its Transportation capabilities simply put the world lacks enough military transportation capability and the naval assets to defend that cargo to ever threaten the United States guns aren't worth the dam if you can't bring them to the battlefield or if they get sunk on Route take China for example a modern military power with a huge thorn in its side Taiwan the tiny Island defiantly refuses reunification with the mainland and yet yet though the Chinese military greatly dwarfs the small Taiwanese forces China is completely incapable of crossing the 110 miles to get to the island it lacks the air and Naval Transportation capabilities to pull this very tiny trip off and any attempt to invade Taiwan by China's Juggernaut military would end in a total bloodbath for the people's Liberation Army NATO however is in an even worse position for transporting troops and equipment to a modern Battlefield during the faulin war between Great Britain and Argentina had Argentina used its Navy more efficiently it would have absolutely trouts British forces due to the low numbers Britain could successfully ferry across the Atlantic at the time even with the objective being the securing of a tiny strip of Island Britain could barely manage to procure enough Transportation capability to conduct a maritime assault and had to press civilian ships into service even then it was covert American assistance that saw Britain's tank forces ships Refuel on route to the faulin and American aircraft that flew British Personnel to Ascension Island a staging ground for The Invasion it was also American satellite intelligence that averted a potential total defeat when the CIA informed the British that their Invasion force would be going up against two to three times the number of Defenders they originally believed they would be facing in modern times things haven't gotten much better and the British Navy has actually shrunk in size several ships have even had to be cannibalized of crew so that Britain's new aircraft carriers could be activated the French and Italians are in better position to move NATO troops around but even their current fleets don't allow those Nations to do much more than small expeditionary sorties such as France's current ongoing counterterrorism operations in Africa in essence NATO would be all but paralyzed as it tried to move troops and equipment to warfronts due to a severe shortage of Transportation assets the best that NATO could manage would be a European Defense as the alliance has absolutely no capability to respond to threats outside of the European theater a war with China would thus be impossible although to to be fair China itself also cannot wage war outside of its own borders the third problem that NATO would face would be the leadership vacuum caused by the US's exit from the alliance without any other Nation being truly militarily Superior though France is certainly neck and shoulders above the others it would be difficult to determine just who would run the alliance during wartime a crisis against Russia would require a unified command structure and right now no Nation seems capable of stepping in and filling that role thanks to the disastrous decision to leave the Britain would likely be far too resented by the other Euro powers to allow it to lead and highly divisive internal politics in France and Germany would likely preclude them from taking leadership turkey is seen today by many as a rather reluctant partner in NATO and were War to break out between the divided NATO and Russia there's no telling if Turkey would honor its commitment to the alliance but let's say that NATO did manage to pull itself together enough to resist a Russian invasion if for some reason Russia did want to invade well right now NATO's easternmost neighbors such as Estonia and lvia face about 46 battalions of Russian tanks infantry and other forces by comparison NATO only has 11 battalions currently defending that area and most of those forces are light infantry forces with little heavy equipment NATO could effectively surge an additional eight battalions in an emergency but seven of those battalions right now would be American without the US NATO can only surge a single Battalion into an Eastern emergency bringing NATO troop numbers to 12 Battalion versus Russia's 46 Not only would NATO forces be initially outnumbered but Russia could call up to 20 million reservists relatively quickly while NATO has varying levels of Readiness on a nation byn basis in the air NATO and Russia have a relative parity with both Nations roughly having the same number of fighter aircraft however Russia has an advantage in attack aircraft numbering 1459 versus NATO's approximately 1300 Russia without a doubt feels the best air defense system in the world in the s300 400 and the new 500 model and without American stealth assets or long-range cruise missiles to destroy those systems or the command and control nodes that support them NATO Air Forces would be Savaged as long as Russia Advanced slowly across Europe allowing time for its air defenses to reposition and cover troop movements targeting would also be a major problem for NATO forces who would no longer have access to American Recon assets or satellites to relay information on enemy troop movements and locations with a massive advantage in electronic warfare Russian forces could potentially make coordination and communication between NATO forces very difficult on the ground Russian tank forces would dwarf NATO forces with roughly 20,000 tanks at its disposal versus NATO's 3600 granted many of Russia's stated tank numbers are actually Cold War era relics which would require weeks of Maintenance to make combat worthy but even without these tanks Russia still Fields a very sizable force of modern and post modern but still capable tanks a more accurate Russian number would be 2600 of immediately available tanks though no doubt many of those in reserve would be reactivated in the buildup to war with almost 4,000 rocket artillery though Russia would decimate NATO forces who can barely field 400 units of their own traditionally NATO relied on more accurate air power rather than ground artillery but most of that air power was American in nature and is no longer now available while Russia also has an advantage in traditional AR arery rocket artillery is especially devastating as it allows the launching of massive amounts of Firepower in a very short time not giving the Defenders a chance to relocate or dig into defensive positions Russia's advantage in this Arena would leave NATO forces struggling to pull themselves together in an environment that would look like the cratered surface of the Moon although NATO could field about 2 million Personnel versus Russia's 1 million these Personnel all have varying degrees of Readiness as does their equipment famously Germany's Air Force was discovered to be completely incapable of carrying out wartime operations this past summer due to a shortage of personnel and Equipment both its Navy also faces similar problems leaving in question the utility of a keystone member of a European only Alliance turkey also makes up the bulk of European NATO forces and given its strained relation with other NATO members and a lack of strong leadership should the US step out of the alliance it's not known if Turkey would support nato in a war against Russia NATO could not hope to oper operate in the short term without the US's continued support though there is hope that if the US left and there was no immediate emergency the alliance could manage to pull itself together in time and become a fighting force capable of at least defending Europe with the balance of global power shifting across the Atlantic to the Pacific in a new tug of- war between the US and China though NATO will have to greatly expand its expeditionary capabilities if it doesn't want to live in a world dominated by China's influence and under Global rules imposed by the Chinese Communist Party if NATO wanted to remain viable in a war without the us then immediate steps must be taken to address critical shortfalls in key areas a dramatic expansion of expeditionary capabilities would be critical not just for fighting conflicts far from home but to rapidly move forces to potential flash points with Russia this means a larger Naval transport Fleet and the surface and undersea assets to protect those ships as well as a huge expansion of current air transportation fleets next the alliance would have to address a critical lack of space assets as without us support the meager European space infrastructure that does exist would be very quickly dismantled in war while the US has a fleet of ready to deploy space Assets in case of wartime attrition of current assets as well as the space government and civilian infrastructure to launch those assets Europe largely lacks the physical Hardware to replace any current losses in space though it at least has adequate Delivery Solutions thanks to the robust European Space Agency Transportation intelligence and leadership are NATO's great greatest weaknesses without the US quickly followed by a severe lack of heavy combat equipment needed to stop a modern combat Force yet these are problems that can be overcome with the refocusing of European military priorities and in the long run NATO could survive without the United States for the US's part any talk of leaving the alliance would be tantamount to shooting itself in the foot even if anger at shouldering the bulk of the cost of European Defense is itself not without Merit European forces have proven steadfast allies for the United States and a of conflicts and the seven decades of Peace in Europe are a testament to the ultimate victory of NATO which has so far succeeded with all members United in preventing a future War September 28th 2027 0330 hours local wuku Islands Taiwan straight local residents are woken by the sound of helicopters gradually building in intensity until the sound of a dozen Chinese helicopters approaching the local Township becomes a roaring cacophony growing in intensity before any of the assault helic opter come into view there's flashes of light from ships offshore and seconds later a whining scream as shells fired by the 130 mm Cannons of the tipe 55 destroyers just sitting off the shore smash into the beaches the fire is very precise and multiple defensive impl placements of the Taiwanese XTR 102 air defense guns are destroyed but other shells hit empty stretches of Coastland the small Garrison of Taiwanese Navy personnel responsible for defending the island have already moved them to new positions leaving dummy guns made out of metal and plywood behind for the Chinese to destroy the invasion was inevitable since the early summer China had begun building up a massive Invasion Fleet an effort taking months to coordinate as the people's Liberation Army Navy gathered the resources necessary for a cross trade Invasion hundreds of Civilian vessels of all sizes had been pressed into military service to shore up the plan's amphibious capabilities if an invasion of Taiwan was going to succeed it needed to happen fast and every ship that could hold a tank or armored vehicle was soon finding itself under temporary New Management the rain of shells continues as the first wave of the assault aircraft nears the beaches Chinese Z10 Attack Helicopters are the tip of the incoming aerial spear their job is to sniff out tyon resistance and destroy it providing protection for the incoming transport helicopters overhead Chinese flying sharks are providing air defense from any Taiwanese Air Force incursions though none are expected the two weq islands are many times further from Taiwan Shores than China's by the time the Taiwanese planes would reach them the fighting would be over from position obscured by camouflage netting a steady stream of tracers fires up into the sky and at the Chinese helicopters the surviving XTR 102 guns have been hidden from Chinese Visual and thermal Recon by netting interwoven with materials designed to defeat infrared detection now the guns glow as hot as the sun as they send steady streams of cannon fire up to the attack helicopters but it doesn't matter anymore the time for deception is over two Z10 are smashed out of the sky by the withering fire of the remotely operated weapons knowing they'll be outmatched by a superior Chinese Force Taiwan has looked to automation to shore up its defensive capabilities the computer controlled sentry guns have been given the freedom to pick their own targets and use a variety of sensors to lock on the attack helicopters the other Z10 peel away and go up to gain altitude as the pilot scanned for the sources of incoming fire twisting down into a steep dive the Choppers unleash a barrage of Cannon and Rocket fire at the automated guns below two more Chinese Choppers are shot out of the sky but eventually the automated guns go silent the path for the Dozen z20s each carrying 15 troops is open and minutes later the first of the air assault Choppers crossed the surf line at just a few feet over the water toop height the helicopters are met by a wall of ground-to-air missiles fired by the Taiwanese Defenders on the ground but under withering fire the air assault is over in less than an hour China has seized both wiq Islands in an opening Gambit for forced reunification of Taiwan September 28th 17700 hours local Washington DC that son of a is daring us the American president scowled at the TV screen currently tuned into Network news and showing a pre-recorded speech by xiin ping president for life of China the Chinese president is declaring the start of reunification procedures with the Breakaway province of Taiwan he is purposefully ambiguous about the scope and methods of which China will use to reunify Taiwan but has declared that in response to the launching of anti- ship missiles from the wiq islands by Taiwanese forces his military was forced to defend itself by seizing the islands and neutralizing the threat it's a fate compley attack no different than the same type of attack NATO feared Russia would launch against one of its Baltic neighbors that scenario Russia was projected to take a small meaningless chunk of a Baltic nation and then immediately heavily fortify it daring NATO to respond if the alliance didn't invoke Article 5 immediately then its credibility would be ruined splintering the unifying principle of NATO but would every member of NATO agree to World War III over some insignificant Lithuanian Village Taiwan enjoyed no such formal treaty this was easier for China than than it would have ever been for Russia the US had been carefully preparing for a full-blown invasion of Taiwan ever since the buildup of Naval forces around the straight at the start of the summer but would the US go to war with the second most powerful Nation on Earth over two islands with a total population of 400 the American president rubbed his temples vigorously he picked up his direct line connecting him to the chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff the words he spoke into that phone would have repercussions for the entire planet September 28th 0645 hours local Fleet Base West Australia the Sleek Virginia class submarine spun up to full power as the harbor tugs pulled away the hmas Crawford was one of two nuclear-powered submarines built by the Americans and gifted to Australia to tide the nation over until its own nuclear submarine program reached maturity in the mid 2030s 5 minutes later the black hole was slipping beneath the waves as she steamed away from friendly Shores and into Harm's Way she carried only Conventional Weapons 12 Tomahawk cruise missiles and her two vertical launch systems located about halfway down her spine and 25 Mark 48 adcap Torpedoes to launch from her forward tubes just one of those Torpedoes had a good chance of crippling a Chinese Cruiser two would sink it her course was due north where she' joined a wolf pack of American attack submarines north of the Philippines her Captain and the crew hoped this was merely posturing but all feared the worst October 2nd 1735 hours local Ronald Reagan carrier strike Group West Pacific classified the captain of the Ronald Reagan watched the navigation play like a hawkk scarcely taking his eyes off the blue lazen shaped digital marker that represented the Reagan and her accompanying escort warships the American super carrier represented one of the greatest concentrations of military power on Earth there were two others like it already in theater the USS nimit was on patrol just east of the Philippines and the George HW Bush had been reassigned to Pacific command the moment that China began to drop forces for a projected invasion of Taiwan and its escorts loitered off the Japanese Coast on the other side of the Japanese m Land from the USS America three carrier strike groups and one expeditionary strike group Washington was sending a very strong message to Beijing as the captain watched the blue digital icon of the rean approach an elliptical boundary superimposed onto the navigation display he figured it was time for the Chinese to send their own response pixel by pixel the blue lozenge on the screen slowly neared the brown elliptical boundary that cut across the screen zooming the display in so that it now showed the Reagan's position in terms of individual kilometers instead of tens of them he he held his breath as the icon neared the brown boundary at a snail's pace and then crossed it despite himself he let out a heavy sigh slightly embarrassed at the noise it caused in the packed cic sure everyone had been holding their breath but he was the captain he was supposed to remain steadfast not sound like a relieved school girl that sir we're getting priority Flash from Egan they've got thermal plumes from multiple sites near Alexa zoki the junior officer working the ship's highly sophisticated Communications gear looked as pale as a ghost so had responded the captain only hoped he looked a little more composed than his subordinate he took a moment to compose himself before speaking this was a shooting War now anything from the Hummers negative sir it's probably not us but keep them looking flank speed yman the Helmsman a yman third class II her confirmation to his order despite the massive size of the ship he swore he could feel it Lurch a little bit as the reactor output was increased dramatically and the super carrier picked up appreciable speed the top speed of a US super carrier was classified and the reag was now hitting those speeds despite being a fraction of her tonnage the escort vessels would struggle to keep up the ship would go in a zigzag pattern at flank speed with their escorts doing their best to catch up and remain in formation the maneuver was meant to throw off incoming ballistic missiles China's famous carrier Killers but to kill a carrier far out at Sea China needed to be able to detect it first identify and then track her over the horizon radar was good for detecting large ships like the Ragan and China had come a long way in this capacity in the last 20 years however they offered too little in terms of identifying or tracking vessels the iding was up to satellites in space who would easily image the big carrier in both Visual and thermal Spectrum satellites whizzed by too fast for a good track though especially given the missiles long flight time from launch to impact that's why the Chinese had to use other methods to track the Reagan this far out at Sea and the only possible solution was a low observable long range drone here too China had made great strides if they didn't find that drone and kill it the world would finally see just how good the escort's sm6 fleet ballistic defense missile really were his combat Air Patrol was already on the hunt assisted by two Hummer E2 hawkey's Airborne early warning aircraft their powerful radar swept the skies in 360° for hundreds of kilometers around the carrier able to detect conventional aircraft long before they could even come within range of firing standoff weapons low observable or stealthy aircraft however were a different matter altogether the rean had been prepared for this possibility and had sent up two combat Air Patrol one Northwest and one Southwest of the carrier The aesa Radars were powerful better than anything the Chinese had in their fighter inventory but the Hawkeyes were the real quarterbacks in the sky without them they'd have no chance of finding the Drone potentially feeding targeting data to the incoming ballistic missiles sir Egan affirms trajectory they've got multiple other launches but this batch is coming for us the captain swallowed hard everyone knew this was a possibility China could ill afford to allow three American Carrier strike groups in its backyard if it was going to take Taiwan and America had worked for the better part of two decades at defeating the threat that ballistic missiles posed to its Fleet now it was up to the various links in the chain to do their job and destroy the enemy's own kill chain he was confident that even now us space assets and cyber warfare units were on the offensive jamming disrupting and even sabotaging Chinese space-based surveillance networks he was confident that the Chinese were doing the same right back at the Americans the first shots of World War III had been both in the physical and cyber world minutes ticked by the discomforting thoughts of dozens of tons of high explosives hurdling through low orbit straight at his ship weighing heavily on the captain's mind his aircraft and ships blasted surrounding airspace for hundreds of miles with all matter of electronic noise trying desperately to find the Drone guiding Chinese missiles to their targets the EM radiation alone was lighting up like a spotlight in the darkness but it was necessary to spot the stealthy drone eal 24 has a bogey at Angels 20 dagger flight already on its heading the commander of the strike group's air defense is at all already confirmed good track on incoming ballistics the captain checked his watch they should be breaking back into the atmosphere in a few minutes with the group's sm6 is being fired in volleys just before to hopefully intercept right inside the atmosphere it was like hitting a bullet with a bullet a dicey proposition in the best of conditions spotting the Chinese drone and destroying it would greatly improve their odds of survival 150 Mi away and thousands of feet up four f-35s Put on Full afterburners as they race toward the target sent to them by the Hawkeye their own Radars were only now starting to pick up the bogey track but they'd have to get closer before they could acquire a targeting solution speed was Time and Time meant they might have a ship to come back to instead of having to ditch into the Pacific a minute later two a120 longrange air-to-air missiles were on their way at supersonic speeds the Drone didn't even bother taking evasive actions it was blown out of the sky and the critical data link to the incoming ballistic missiles was broken a few minutes later the missiles that survived the storm of sm6 is coming up to greet them from below smashed harmlessly into the ocean missing their targets by a dozen miles but off the Filipino Coast the nimit strike group fared far worse the shorter flight time meant that it was easier for China to track and Target and despite a vigorous showing from the group's SM sixs three of her escort vessels were nearly broken into two by tons of high explosives falling out of orbit at Hypersonic speeds the nits itself took a single hit after the flight deck ripping the entire aft section apart and destroying two dozen aircraft in the massive hanger below the ship's propulsion was seriously damaged and only one of her screws was operational as she was forced to limp South toward the safety of Australian Waters a Chinese diesel electric sub would finish her off 2 days later at the cost of its own life from American ASW aircraft the George HW Bush and the America both fared far better enjoying the robust protection of both their own and American and Japanese shore-based ballistic missile defenses the batteries of patriot interceptors would have to choose to defend either the Japanese and American ships or Inland airfields they chose the ladder doing their best to Shield the two navies from withering ballistic missile attack over the next two days airfields could be repaired but there was no unsyncing as super carrier enter escorts arguably they were much more useful in the war to come anyway as it would take place almost solely in the air and in the Water by attacking the American and Japanese airfields though China committed Japan to the war it had been a small gamble Japan's entry into the first Sino American war was a foregone conclusion Japan didn't want China dominating the Western Pacific any more than the Americans or anyone else really South Korea had been spared however out of fears of dragging them into the conflict as well in turn China struck terms with South Korea it would not attack the nation's military infrastructure as long as it forbade the Americans from using their forces there to launch attacks against China faced with the possibility of a Chinese bombardment and Invasion from North Korea South Korea struck a pragmatic if disappointing bargain October 24th 11001 local hours jointed British American expedition Ary Force Arabian Sea the Chinese attack on Diego Garcia had been a complete surprise to the Americans and their British allies who had thrown themselves wholeheartedly into the war on the side of the Americans China had managed to slip several long-range ballistic missiles into its Naval Base at jouti the entire launch assembly miniaturized and disguised as cargo containers it had only taken hours to move them into position and send a small volley at the Joint British American base on the small atle of Diego Garcia the base had weathered a far less intense attack than say Guam which had been been hammered with dozens of missile strikes its Patriot batteries had done a fair bit of work in conjunction with us ships and knocked half of the incoming missiles out but the rest had wrecked the runways fuel storage and Hangers housing aircraft the damage was immense and it would take months to bring Guam back online Diego Garcia would be fully operational in a fraction of the time but for now the runway used by Allied longrange strike and Recon aircraft was not operational and aircraft carriers were at a premium badly needed closer to China's own Shores the attack had been part of an effort to disrupt us and British operations in the Arabian Sea and an attempt to dislodge the blockading force already on its way there with their ships positioned at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman China's badly needed oil supplies could be squeezed off as the nation imported the majority of its oil via the sea is put it in a seriously compromised situation with current reserves as well as oil being delivered from Russia China could ration supplies of oil to its civilians diverting most of it for combat operations however this would strangle the Chinese economy while in return China could do nothing to threaten us and Allied trade it was clear how the war would end then in retaliation American Special Forces including a company of Rangers had launched a raid on the Chinese base in jibuti against the local government's wishes Japanese self-defense Air Force craft flying from their own air base in the country provided close air support in the brief but intense fighting the base was now neutralized and it was time to do the same with the people's Liberation Army Navy ships it was supporting originally the Chinese plan to dislodge the American boot on their throat Road had been to launch a disruptive attack on Diego Garcia followed by an attack on US Naval forces by both surface and undersea platforms but of the half dozen Chinese attack submarines secretly sent to make a transit to the area to join in on the attack only one had made it through Allied lines it had been a gamble but Chinese Subs were much noisier than American or european ones to make matters worse for the Chinese Britain wasn't the only European power throwing its weight behind the US France Germany and Spain had all sent ships to the region over the summer and now joined the fight directly Russia's attack on Ukraine had solidified the NATO alliance and filled it with terrible resolve the NATO Fleet steamed West toward the smaller Chinese Fleet formerly based around jibuti the gamble had failed without attack submarines for support there was little hope of Chinese Victory here awax aircraft spotted the enemy Fleet hundreds of kilometers away feeding targeting data to Friendly forces at a range of 300 nautical miles the American ships fired first loosing a volley of AGM 158c LR Sim these long range anti- ship missiles had recently been upgraded with the ability to be launched from US Navy vertical launch cell systems on the decks of its warships where before they can only be carried by combat aircraft fired in volleys each missile carries a 1000lb warhead and flies to 25,000 ft their sophisticated sensor Suite allows each missile to sniff out the electromagnetic and thermal signature of enemy ships and verify what the missile sees with an onboard library of known enemy vessels thus the smart missiles avoid hitting friendly or neutral targets networked together they can even designate Targets in flight so missiles don't double up or triple up on a single Target unless necessary all these capabilities however are a backup to its onboard data link so if severed the missile can still track ID and prosecute the target once within 100 Mil of their target the volley of lrms plunged toward the ocean skimming over the top of the Waves this allows them to slip under the defensive Radars until they get to within a few dozen miles of their target the harpoons used by the rest of the US ships and their allies would have been spotted on Chinese radar long ago but the lrasm stealth quality allow it to get within 2 dozen miles before air defense radar sniff them out immediately the Chinese vessels fire off waves of interceptors but Fire Control Radars have difficulty locking on to the jet black American missiles the first wave of interceptors missed their target and auto detonate harmlessly over the ocean the second volley of interceptors managed to destroy a few of the incoming missiles there isn't time for a third volley perhaps if the Chinese enjoyed the support of an awax platform they could have detected the American missiles earlier and had more engagement time with more accurate tracking but without it the ships are forced to rely on their own systems limited by radar Horizons and minimum tracking altitudes Chinese sea whs cannons Roar to life as the air fills with thousands of SuperSonic tungsten rounds the tracers make each stream of sea WIS fire look like an arcing laser that sweeps across the sky more LR ASM are shredded by cannon fire but now under 2 miles of their targets the black missiles suddenly pop up to gain altitude for a top attack profile that'll see them smashing into the enemy ships from above the fleet's entire Sea whz Systems are filling the sky with fire knocking more missiles out of the air but it's not enough with thunderous Roars the Thousand PB Warheads smash into Chinese ships punching through the top of each ship and detonating inside of them for maximum damage only half of the LR ASM volum made it through the gamut of air defense but the thlb WarHeads are devastating to make matters worse within half an hour the Allied Fleet will be in range of traditional Harpoon missiles which they carry in the dozens with a significant amount of their missile defense interceptors and cawis ammunition depleted already there's little hope for the small Chinese Fleet to hold off the onslaught to come and even less hope that China can maintain its vital trade artery to the Middle Eastern Oil in the end it'll matter little if Chinese forces managed to successfully land on Taiwan an ongoing campaign that has already seen Chinese casualties in the thousands the island has been turned into a veritable Fortress with one goal in mind hang on long enough for the Allied fleets to start China into submission with the Gulf of Oman plugged Allied air power will now work to destroy the people's Liberation Army Air Force and sweep it from the Skies of Taiwan while submarines Whittle away the planned ships Taiwan will bear a heavy cost but in the end strangled off from its badly needed oil imports World War III only ends one way the year is 1989 and in just two years the Soviet Union and its Mighty Warsaw Pact would collapse politically seeing an end to the Cold War and a deao NATO Victory but what would have happened if the Soviet Union had seen its own coming demise and made a desperate bid to defeat NATO the rules of this war game will include no use of nuclear weapons and assume that China with simmering hostilities against the Soviet Union remain neutral limiting the conflicts to strictly the Soviet Union its Warsaw Pact allies and NATO overall the Warsaw Pact enjoyed a numerological advantage over nato in most military categories except Naval forces with a standing force of 6 million active duty Personnel versus NATO's 4.5 million active duty Personnel the wara PCT also had an advantage in number of Tanks approximately 70,000 versus NATO's 50,000 although NATO had twice as many modern tanks 5,300 mostly American M1 Abrams German lepr twos and British Challengers versus 2600 Soviet t8s NATO tanks had better computers and sensors which would have made them lethal in nighttime fighting but sheer numbers would have been on the Warsaw pack side with the bulk of its forces being made up of older t80b t72b and t64b models which still had the punch to knock out even a modern NATO tank the largest Advantage enjoyed by the warell pack was in the realm of artillery with over 45,000 artillery pieces versus NATO's 18,000 though NATO's forces were on the whole technologically superior to the Warsaw packs the overwhelming amount of artillery on the Communist side would have severely blunted that Advantage via fire suppression alone in the air the waro pack also outnumbered NATO with 14,000 planes versus NATO's 11,000 NATO however fielded far more modern planes enjoyed better missile technology and Pilots had an order of magnitude more training flight hours per year 180 hours versus 120 hours or less the Warsaw Packa countered these advantages with a huge deployment of groundbased Sam batteries as seen in wars of the period from Vietnam to conflicts vers Israel Soviet anti-air missile systems enjoyed an average kill rate of 3 to 5% which while not the sheer number of Sam systems employed by the Warsaw Pact about 1,400 would have posed a significant challenge to Nato Air Forces so how would a potential War have played out despite its Firepower advantages the Soviet Union and allies knew that they would never win in a protracted War of Attrition versus Nato who outclass them in sheer economic might with a combined GDP of approximately 12 trillion US versus the waro packs 2.5 trillion therefore any War would have to be quick with projections at the time showing that a multi year conflict would eventually result in a complete NATO Victory with focus on a quick and decisive campaign the Soviet Union would immediately launch an offensive across the German front while putting Warsaw packed forces in Romania and Bulgaria on a defensive footing to prevent a flanking maneuver by Italian Greek or Turkish forces though Greek and Turkish forces alone outnumbered Bulgarian and Romanian forces by 2 to1 difficult terrain and a lack of decisive numerological Advantage would have favored a defensive battle for the bulgarians and Romanians on turkey's Eastern Front the caucuses were a natural barrier to land Invasion into the Soviet Union and a force of approximately 100,000 Soviet soldiers could have easily held against a Turkish attack thanks to the difficult terrain an attempt to flank these forces over the Black Sea would have been catastrophic due to the presence of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet so instead of joining a European offensive turkey would have been tasked with keeping the Black Sea Fleet bottled up to prevent it from reaching the Mediterranean trying toing Break Out of the Black Sea would have spelled complete disaster for the Soviets as they would have been forced to try to break through Turkish defenses on the narrow bosphorous strait in the end most of the fighting would have remained in Germany though the longer the war continued the more US Naval reinforcements would arrive and with access to the Black Sea firmly in Turkish control the decimation of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet would be a foregone conclusion allowing turkey to land forces at Odessa and sevastopol and opening a second front in the Soviet Union's vulnerable Southern border ini Al though Soviet forces would quickly overwhelm NATO defenses in Germany on the eve of War Soviet forces would open with a withering ballistic and air launched cruise missile attack against West Germany's air bases with about, 1500 ballistic missile launchers and most of them near the front the majority of NATO's airfields in West Germany would be quickly rendered useless and required days to repair however this would not put as big a dent in NATO's ability to launch sorties as the Soviets hoped as NATO planes had on average 25 to 50% greater r range than Soviet planes and 88% of all NATO Fighters had inair refueling capabilities versus approximately 3% of Soviet Fighters with better and more fuel efficient engines along with a robust aerial tanker Fleet NATO planes were designed for longrange sorties exactly because of the vulnerability of West German airfields to sudden Soviet offenses and missile strikes in the first week of the war NATO would be pushed back dozens of Miles by overwhelming Soviet Firepower with most of its forces station near West Germany The wara Pact could funnel more troops faster than NATO to the front who would have to mobilize forces from Great Britain Spain Portugal and the US with the US holding the majority of NATO's Firepower it would take 15 days minimum to deploy the first American light infantry brigades into Europe so the Soviets would enjoy a two-e decisive advantage over NATO yet their offensive would be slowed by the natural terrain of Germany which features dozens of rivers and the influx of troops along with a mass civilian Exodus would congest roads also slowing down the Soviet Advance Soviet military Doctrine would further slow down and offensive as their units featured very few logistical support personnel as it was Soviet thinking at the time that most units would be entirely decimated and would simply be replaced by new units as supply lines lengthened a lack of logistics Personnel would have been a critical vulnerability and caused even more slowdowns of the Soviet advance in the air neither side would enjoy much success initially NATO planes would have been able to Target and fire on Soviet planes from much longer distances but Soviet planes were generally better at Close Quarters dog fighting unclassified Soviet documents show that though initially the Soviet Union thought it could win an Air Supremacy War by 1985 and eclipsed technologically by NATO Soviet Doctrine shifted to focusing air power in smaller areas rather than trying to establish theaterwide Supremacy this would have tied up Soviet fighters in specific Geographic areas protecting them from NATO attack but would also prevent them from launching strikes against NATO logistical facilities or troop formations leaving NATO troops free to resupply and ready for counterattacks the Soviet Union would instead have relied on its overwhelming Sam air defense Advantage but most of their platforms were not very mobile and would have taken days to weeks to reach the front American stealth aircraft such as the F-117 would prove to be stunningly effective against Soviet built air defenses in Desert Storm just 2 years later but it would take time to move them to the European theater from their us bases and would be too few in number to decisively alter the course of the war on their own in the North Atlantic the Soviet Fleet would operate under a fortress Fleet Doctrine keeping close to their Coastal fire support and acting as a defensive measure against sea invasions by NATO a string of seafloor sensors and coordinated anti-submarine assets made a nearly impenetrable wall across Greenland Iceland and the UK for Soviet Subs leaving American reinforcements with little threat of attack as they cross the Atlantic the Soviet Union might attempt a surprise in invasion of Iceland in order to break the anti-submarine defense line but only at the risk of leaving Key baren sea Naval facilities defenseless against NATO Invasion threatening the German front and presenting an unacceptable risk NATO forces would likely attempt a land offensive across the northern tip of Norway in a bid to open a second front and relieve pressure in Germany but heavy snow and mountainous terrain would make any advance slow and difficult while greatly favoring the Soviet Defenders on the other side of the world the Soviet Union would face considerable threat from US forces in the Pacific who would attempt offensives against Katka while far less strategically important to the war effort due to its economically developed nature a land invasion of Eastern Soviet Union would provide a corridor for offenses Into the Heart Of The Nation the Soviets would thus be forced to divert Manpower from the European front to fend off an American Invasion having signed a mutual defense treaty with the US Japan would provide a fortified base of operation for an American Invasion and though unable to mount offensive on its own due to the self-defense nature of its military Japanese forces could eventually reinforce Americans making landfall in the Soviet Union the Soviet Pacific Fleet would also operate under a fortress Fleet Doctrine keeping close to a coastal Firepower as it could not match the US Navy with five Super carriers in the Pacific the US would eventually succeed in making landfall in kamacha though only at Great cost to its Naval and Marines both ending the first year of the war the Soviet Union and its allies would have seized the majority of Germany and this would would have presented the most opportune time to bid for a ceasefire hoping for a lack of will to continue fighting from NATO Nations though both sides would have all but exhausted their Air Forces it would have provided an opportunity for NATO industry to replace its entire inventory with wholly modern Fighters and strike aircraft completely swinging the balance of power in the air and leaving Soviet forces vulnerable facing a combined economic might over three times greater than its own and with new fronts opening up in its vulnerable Pacific Coast if the Soviet Union could not force Peace by Year's end it would have faced certain defeat still win or lose by Year's End war between the Soviet Union and NATO would have casualties reaching in the millions a second Year's worth of fighting may have seen casualty numbers higher than in any other one-year period of fighting in history making a Soviet Union NATO War the most deadly in human history even with NATO's ability to win a long-term conflict the cost of pushing deep into Warsaw pack territory would have been prohibitive and an end to the war would simply have seen old borders restored at the cost of tens of millions of soldiers and hundreds of millions of direct and indirect civilian casualties begging the question of who in the end could ultimately claim victory East Ukraine March 2023 Anton huffed and puffed reaching the truck a second before the driver threw into gear hauling himself up in the back just in time all around him similar trucks were already in motion or waiting with idling engines their drivers yelling at the rushing soldiers to hurry up and load in as if to punctuate the point there was a high-pitch wine in the distance followed by an explosive blast Russian Artillery was in range and opening up this wasn't the first time he had to retreat during the course of the 13-month war for his country but this was perhaps the most painful Retreat for over a year Ukraine and Russia had slugged it out in a bloody battle for Eastern Ukraine both sides had Advanced and retreated under the weight of each other's offensives toward the end of last summer though Ukraine had made its greatest gains liberating the city of kison in late September it felt as if the tide of the war had finally shifted and then the US midterm elections came around in a wholly unprecedented turn of events a slew of isolationist polititions had been voted into office the House of Representatives had quickly put forth a measure to end us membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization believing it to be a waste of resources when a real threat to America was in the Pacific namely China pressure on the Senate led to Landmark legislature and with the stroke of a pen the United States was no longer a member of NATO this had Direct implications for Ukraine's war against Russia with no more investment in Europe the United States was no longer as interested in Heming in Russian aggression and thus funding for the Ukrainian Armed Forces quickly dried up along with the money came an end to millions of rounds of ammunition harm anti radar missiles new artillery and of course the vaed himar system which had enabled Ukraine's first and only major offensive at the end of August last year Ukraine was now a European problem and Europe's support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces was a fraction of what it had enjoyed from the United States the new flue of American politicians represented a shift in Attitude from the American taxpayers Russia was Europe's problem problem is Europe was Ill prepared to deal with the problem and Anton and his comrades were suffering for it it was hard to tell which had been the most devastating for his country's war effort the lack of direct material support or the lack of intelligence support before his country had enjoyed the wealth of information offered by America's vast intelligence gathering apparatus everything from Human intelligence sources to satellite and electronic intercepts all of it feeding targeting data to eliminate Russian VIPs and intelligence preventing Russian surprise assaults or reinforcements Ukraine had enjoyed a nearly realtime view on Russian movements now that intelligence was reduced to a trickle the Army was largely fighting blind but the lack of material support hurt too Surviving High Mar's units no longer had amunition and work was being done to try to convert them to fire more available and less capable unguided rocket Munitions the supply of Man portable air defense weapons had all but evaporated leaving the Frontline troops vulnerable to Air Attack as they once were at the start of the war Russian tanks can Now operate with greatly reduced fear from anti-tank missile threats as the US had provided the bulk of Ukraine's anti- Armour capabilities via its Javelin ATMs franton the decision for the US to withdraw from NATO and from Europe itself meant he was in Retreat once more but this time it felt much more final NATO headquarters Brussels Belgium the ukrainians were taking a beating now in general Retreat across the East Major General Alex Tuit shook his head sadly reading the intelligence reports in his hand the US was still tasking satellites elant and hum sources in the war in Ukraine but it just wasn't sharing that information anymore a damn stupid move on the politician behalf thought the general to himself with a sigh he fed the report to the specialized disposal unit for sensitive documents it was the last piece of Hardware in what was his former office inside NATO headquarters as a special atese to the organization which had lasted for eight decades but was now in serious Jeopardy of collapse he waited to confirm the disposal unit did its job with the hum of energy it Flash and incinerated the document leaving behind only ashes he knew its job was done when he could smell the slight Aroma of burning paper he wouldn't bother sending an aid for the device the Euros could have it along with his empty office General tuich stood and took in one last look at what was once one of the cornerstones of American global strategy then turned his back on the office and 80 years of Highly Successful foreign policy and walked out the door he was met by his Aid and Driver there was a waiting US Air Force passenger plane at the nearby military Airfield which would return him to the US via Britain as America and the UK still maintain the security Alliance US forces and bases there weren't being deactivated as they were across Mainland Europe as he passed within a few doors of one of the general assembly meeting rooms he could hear the Latvian representative practically screaming at his NATO partners he didn't blame them since the US announced its withdrawal from the alliance Russia had reinforced its eastern flank along the baltics it was all but a certainty that Russia would attempt to intimidate the Breakaway Soviet republics into returning to the F he wondered if they would actually use Force though and what the hell Europe would do about it if they did as he turned the corner he was greeted by Lieutenant Colonel bont deschamp one of France's Representatives here at Brussels headquarters the two had enjoyed a close working relationship and he quite liked the man he barely even held the fact that he was French against him anymore for his part the chomp ignored that tu's favorite meals typically included hamburgers of some sort the chomp fell in alongside tuich speaking in a thick alaan French accent your government could have at least left us with logistical support I agree damn fool of the politicians but Tuit Shrugged his shoulders Americans got tired of paying the bills for European security the Sha bristled at the comment yet he couldn't deny there was at least some truth to this his own nation was only .7% away from meeting the alliance's minimum funding goal of 2% GDP and had only increased spending in recent years under intense pressure from the US what is that American expression the mer is soon to hit the fan Major General Alex tuich nodded solemnly yes my friend the mer is in fact about to hit the fan SATA Estonia 12 mi8 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace forces crossed the border into Estonia flying just barely over the rooftops of the neighboring town of satsa the helicopter sat down at pre-planned positions around the Western perimeter of the Town disgorging their squads of Russian paratroopers a few minutes later a force of Russian t9s and BTR 80s overran the Border Police checkpoint smashing through the flimsy wooden barricade there was a brief exchange of gunfire with some Estonian border troops but within 6 hours the small town was firmly under the control of the Russian military from the Town Square the Russians had hung their country's flag 10 Downing Street United Kingdom the British prime minister did her best to hide her concern AR raid before her on multiple screens were the leaders or representatives of the remaining members of the NATO alliance the emergency conference had been called immediately upon reports of the first Russian troops Crossing into Estonian territory in the last 6 hours the Russians had secured the small town and the new satellite reconnaissance seemed to indicate that they were digging into defensive positions Estonia had attempted to fly several drones over the area but they had all been shot down so live intelligence was out of the question however it didn't seem as if the Russians had any intention of advancing their attack the Prime Minister realized she'd been asked a question and snapped out of her internal mental review I'm sorry what was that the representative from the Estonian government was on the main screen looking understandably frustrated ma'am I'm going to ask you again will Britain honor its commitment to NATO's NRF that was a question with a million implications she could feel the weight of History pressing down on her the fate of Europe in the 21st century very much depended on her answer NATO's response force and very rapid response Force had been set up to deal with exactly this type of Russian incursion it was well known that for at least a decade Russia's Vladimir Putin had toyed with the idea of a fate ACC comply attack against NATO the seizure of a single meaningless Village somewhere along the baltics not enough to Warrant fullscale war in normal circumstances but enough to test the NATO alliance if NATO hesitated the entire concept of mutual defense collapsed and the alliance would inevitably Splinter exactly as Putin wanted despite his catastrophic setbacks in Ukraine which were now being reversed America's exit from the alliance had given him exactly the opportunity he'd been dreaming of he didn't even wait for America to fully leave the continent European command still had several dozen planes waiting to be loaded with equipment in airfields across Germany the PM looked over at the screen with the Turkish representative turkey had been striding a fine line between Europe and Russia for years now but had so far seemed to be committed to the alliance in regards to assisting Ukraine however the incursion into Estonia had put turkey in a position where it finally had to decide who it really wanted to be friends with and faced the prospect of fighting Russia without us Aid well she could already see the answer on the man's Stony face it wasn't that NATO without America wasn't a match for the Russian military it's that the US provided the very backbone of what a modern Army needs to win a fight Transportation logistical support and special Mission aircraft us Firepower was considerable and nice but it was the loss of us leg Logistics and support assets that made a response to Russia's incursion difficult the alliance had scrambled to shore up its deficiency since the US announced its surprise exit and the response and very fast response forces were at least fully equipped but those couldn't win a war on their own they were meant to deter a war not stop one in progress Russia had called NATO's Bluff and without US Air power and intelligence immediately available to the alliance it would take weeks to coordinate an effective response from the varying military Powers Britain was having trouble even keeping keeping its current ships fully manned and had already cannibalized a few vessels of their crews in the last 10 years just to keep others operational Germany struggled to fully equip its commitment to NATO's response Force having to borrow equipment from other units to do so and its Air Force hadn't been considered fully ready for combat for years now due to maintenance and logistical problems she scanned the faces of the NATO Representatives on the screens before her the French President had a grim but determined look on his face he had already pledged French support for the NRF then again of course he did French seemed to be one of the few powers in Europe whose military was ready for such a war she thought sadly the Polish representative looked equally grim and determined Poland was fiercely opposed to Russian aggression having suffered the brunt of it for centuries one of her American Military contacts had lamented that leaving Poland had for the US military like been leaving a dear friend behind in a bad situation but other faces she looked at didn't share the same hardened result turkey Hungary Finland and Sweden the two newest members who had confidently joined the alliance after the invas of Ukraine didn't look ready to honor their commitment to NATO's NRF committing the UK would tip the balance throwing NATO into a fullscale war not doing so meant Russia won and NATO would come apart of the seams as it lost all credibility all because of one damn Village built too close to the Russian border clearing her throat the Britain prime minister prepared herself to make history gentlemen and ladies after much consideration I believe it is in Britain's and Europe's best interest if the British Armed Forces with the invasion of Ukraine going on for more than 2 years at the time this video was written it's become pretty obvious that Putin doesn't want to back down but what many fail to realize is that Russia's Grand plans of returning to its imperialist borders have only just begun and one of the key barriers to Russia's expansion is NATO Putin's already enacted multiple strategies with NATO even though Russia and NATO aren't fighting directly you could say they are at War and while that war might not actually be on the battlefield It could only be a matter of time before it escalates to that point but how EX exctly are NATO and Russia at odds with one another to learn that it's best to take a look at Putin's exact demands that led to this horrid situation shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 Putin approached NATO to discuss the following three hard boundaries that would need to be maintained one prevent NATO's expansion close to Russia's borders including removing the ability for Ukraine to join NATO two remove deployed weapons and Military near borders with Russia and three dismantle NATO military bases in countries that joined NATO after 1996 when the first provisional NATO Russia agreement was reached in each of these points Russia has identified a key weakness in its influence and political power the eu's and NATO's expansion have provided Europe with a unitary approach to both economy and Military weakening Russia's ability to exert demands on former Soviet and VSA PCT countries this means that Russia has been slowly losing allies from its West ultimately with the technological advance advancements in Warfare especially long-range missile capabilities Moscow and the other wealthy and influential Russian leading population centers in Europe could feasibly be within reach in a hypothetical war against NATO which is precisely what drove Putin to invade Ukraine in the first place as one of the countries with historically strong ties to Russia Ukraine was the ultimate Russian stronghold in Europe it's one of the few countries with a significant Russian population and has a land border with both NATO countries and Russia Ukraine joining NATO would defeat Russia's multi-decade effort to influence and retain military control in Soviet countries this has been one of the most long-standing strategies that the Kremlin has used to exert its will on other countries with key examples being current issues in mdova and Georgia the strategy has also proven partially successful in Ukraine before considering the Russian annexation of Crimea which was one of the precursors for NATO bolstering its expansion efforts that's why Putin's ultimate goal is to try to dismantle NATO whether through direct or indirect efforts one of the key Russian efforts to undermine NATO's Authority is the near constant threat of war with NATO countries while this primarily comes alongside the threat of using nuclear weapons of which Russia is the world's biggest stockpiler a traditional invasion is something that many European countries have slowly been considering as a real possibility in leaked military documents the German defense Ministry goes so far as to Envision Russia attacking NATO directly at some point in this year the documents go into the details of Russia winning the war in Ukraine and starting to create a military front in the kenrad overlast and bellarus which currently allows free transit for Russian military and soldiers it should be noted that many documents that National ministries of defense and militaries prepare are worst case scenarios and are therefore highly unlikely to be realistic however Germany itself has ramped up its defense spending meaning that it's likely it'll take the current Russian threat seriously so how does Russia plan to attack NATO directly in this hypothetical War the Russian region of kaliningrad would be a vital asset for any Invasion nestled between Poland and Lithuania kaliningrad and Belarus create a natural flanking position for The salki Gap a 60-m border between the two NATO countries Russia maintains a large military presence in kaliningrad by ramping up the country's defense sector since 2008 to keep it more isolated from its European Neighbors which it sees as negatively influencing kaliningrad culturally and ideologically as we mentioned before Belarus is one of the closest Russian allies in The Invasion and is currently hosting Russian soldiers and longrange artillery equipment to extend the Russo Ukrainian front by reinforcing the military in kaliningrad and Belarus Russia can effectively create a barrier between Poland and Lithuania effectively cutting off the Baltic countries from the rest of Mainland Europe if Russia then invades one of the Baltic countries and the salki Gap simultaneously other NATO countries would be forced to funnel their land forces through the Gap some strategists have previously noted that this move could lead to tens of thousands of NATO casualties within the first few days of the invasion while NATO's total military heavily outnumbers Russia Russian conscription efforts have been nothing short of monumental According to some reports Russia has lost around 320,000 soldiers over the past 2 years of fighting in Ukraine that is close to 90% of Russia's total military Manpower deployed in Ukraine at the start of the Invasion by some accounts Russia had around 470,000 troops stationed in the occupied Ukrainian territory at the start of 2024 by contrast Germany a country with around half of Russia's population has a total military size estimated at around 181,000 of course one of the biggest flaws in Russia's offensive plans on the Baltic has been the recent integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO with these two countries joining NATO Russia's direct land border with NATO has nearly doubled in l this means that NATO could feasibly invade Russia through its North forcing the Russian army to divide its troops between the Baltic states and the Finnish Norwegian border additionally Sweden and Finland are in NATO which means the almost entire Baltic Sea is under NATO control since kingrat is the only Russian port in the Baltic Sea that stays ice free throughout the year NATO can easily blockade kenrad if the combined Baltic fleets of NATO countries attacks kenrad it would further pressure Russia to assign vital troops to defend the ports rather than holding the Salk Gap even in this scenario Russia has something that NATO lacks and that's sheer disregard for how it treats its soldiers well this is not particularly positive it can mean a whole world of difference if Russia fully utilizes its Army by throwing every available Soldier into the meat grinder Russia can try to win a war of attrition against NATO while it could have deadly repercussions it could be just the sort of desperate strategy that no one will expect Putin to actually Implement and therefore countries might not expect the approach if NATO doesn't account for this possibility if it already hasn't it could severely underestimate the initial strength of the Russian army this is mainly because most European countries have vastly different views of conscription for example once Germany ended mandatory military service its Army the bundes shrunk from around 310,000 troops to the aforementioned 180,000 this difference is solely due to a lack of interest in military surface in the country if the figures could be replicated across the NATO countries in Europe it could mean that Russia could be fighting a half a million fewer troops than they would have had those countries had mandatory military service as such Russia could take the next few years to rebuild its troops and use a larger Army advantage to push into Europe This is further made possible by the unequal military spending between NATO countries while all members are technically recommended to allocate at least 2% of their GDP for defense spending less than half of countries actually do so Germany for for example made International headlines after the invasion of Ukraine when the government announced boosting its defense spending to the recommended 2% on the other hand Russia is predicted to spend roughly a third of its annual budget on the military alone in 2024 as evidenced by its budget allocation while this isn't much compared to what China and the US spend Russia might not have to worry about these armies for a while for one China is currently maintaining friendly relations with Russia it took over most of Russia's oil and natural gas trading deals after the EU sanction Russia and removed its dependence on the Russian Supply however another more important factor is that NATO might not be able to count on the US to join the frey if a war breaks out in Europe well the US is obligated to abide by NATO's Article 5 which prompts all countries to join in Wars the US might not be in NATO for much longer and that would all have to do with politics you see the current President Joe Biden's Administration has a pretty positive view on NATO however the presidential elections in 2024 are pitting Biden against former president Donald Trump one of the most polarizing political Personalities in the world aside from amassing over 30 felony charges Trump has been pretty vocal about his sorted opinion on NATO he believes that the US should not feel obligated to be a member of The Pact since it's by far the biggest contributor of military funding even if only in percentage of GDP by country while the US's defense contribution is around 35% of its GDP Poland is allocating 3.9% the Pack's average average is only 2.64% and not every country has reached the recommended 2% threshold according to the latest polls Trump is inching ahead of Biden by around 1% while that might not be a significant difference and the figures fluctuate between one poll to the next it shows that Trump could feasibly win the 2024 elections if that happens Trump could push for a vote in Congress to leave NATO which requires a 2/3 majority after a country has announced that it wants to leave NATO the process is automatic and it only requires a one-year notice to the US at least currently so even in the scenario where Trump wins and immediately starts pushing for the country to leave NATO the US will feasibly remain until early 2026 however even if the US is still in NATO that doesn't mean that European countries are guaranteed to receive help from the US according to Article 5 while the article is a part of NATO's founding Charters it's not a legally binding contract Trump could just refuse to cooperate with Article 5 and leave European countri R to themselves while this is highly unlikely due to the international backlash the US would receive it might just be possible if Trump's Administration decided to improve its relationship with Russia or adopt a more isolationist stance there's no telling what the repercussions could be on the global stage similarly Russia doesn't want to leave the US elections up to chance multiple reports have suggested that Russia has interfered with us politics and elections in both 2016 and 2020 this means that Russia already has a well-developed Playbook book on how to operate and distort the existing information present in Us Media and fit its desired narrative the office of the Director of National Intelligence has suggested that Russian efforts to undermine democracy and Infuse American Media with more content to further its agenda will only escalate in the coming years this will mean that Putin has already concocted a plan to Ally himself with Trump and have the US leave NATO to start the process of dismantling NATO and there's always the threat of using nuclear weapons one of the key reasons why Russia is so heavily reinforcing kaliningrad is due to its favorable location in Europe with modern missile launching capabilities Precision strikes from kaliningrad could hit every European NATO Capital before the countries could deploy their anti-air defenses in May 2022 the Russian army hosted a military exercise in kenrad providing a detailed simulation of their missile launchers since this equipment is capable of deploying both traditional long-range missiles and nuclear ones it's a clear show of four for and possibly intent for NATO countries to see however Putin has used the nuclear threat quite often over the past few years it's been one of the kremlin's favorite defense mechanisms whenever NATO announces new military donations to Ukraine but this saber rattling has yet to yield results with world leaders since Ukraine has consistently received more advanced Weaponry since the invasion or is that really Putin's goal while the threat of nuclear warfare might certainly rattle world leaders and significantly delay traditional Aid to Ukraine Ukraine world leaders might not be the intended target for Putin that could be the regular citizens faced with constant nuclear threats looming on the horizon the citizens of NATO countries could become apathetic or even contrary to the causes supported by the pro-military leaders given enough propaganda time and fear-mongering it's not out of the realm of possibility to imagine countries further curbing their military budgets because even fewer people sign up for military service or abandon conscription this could be a real blow to Nato military power and give Putin another way to dismantle the alliance from within faced with a choice of fighting for countries that are not their own and the fear that Putin's wrath might result in the bombing of their cities out of existence soldiers could easily opt out then some world leaders might abandon Warfare and turn to the negotiating table only this time Russia would have the upper hand and could enforce its demands in return for keeping the status quo on nuclear weapons considering how little Russia can invest in the strategy and how much it can get this could be a intive way to approach negotiations while risky this plan could make Putin one of the most successful leaders in Russian history this part of Putin's plan has been so welldeveloped that it has its own name dubbed the reflexive control theory it involves giving your opponents information so that their response can be uniquely predetermined to align with your goals in Russia's case the threats of War are constantly escalating the situation if NATO comes up with a plan to help Ukraine end the war in its favor Putin could counter that with another nuclear threat threat forcing NATO to reconvene and ultimately curb its Aid to Ukraine or ultimately decide against it altogether as soon as there's news about planned military exercises in Russia with equipment that could be used for nuclear warfare or simulating it NATO would try to demonstrate that it won't present a nuclear threat itself this attempt to deescalate the situation allows Putin to effectively control the rhetoric of how much NATO countries can invest in helping Ukraine or even guide their own governments on Military matters one of the Great examp examples here would be the nuclear arsenals of European NATO countries there are only two of those the UK and France but so far Putin hasn't been worried about either NATO country using their nuclear weapons because their legislation prohibits their use unless the country is under direct threat that means that even if for example the Baltic countries were attacked with nuclear weapons by Russia the nuclear weapons in France and the UK would remain unavailable to the rest of NATO if Putin maintains Russia's offensive by reflexive control he can continue to threaten nuclear war as soon as either the UK or France announce a change and how they're willing to use its nuclear warhead supplies this leaves the us as the only nuclear ready Nation considering that Trump being elected could take the us out of the equation Putin can maintain his upper hand and use the reflexive control methodology to win the war in Ukraine by forcing NATO's hand reflexive control is also the key reason why Ukraine hasn't been allowed to join NATO before due to Putin's previous threats if the country were to join NATO Putin could have invaded forced the rest of NATO to invoke Article 5 and then plunge the entirety of Europe into war it's also why NATO hasn't so far directly deployed its troops to defend Ukraine but only keeps sending ammunition and Equipment but as mentioned earlier it's not just military Warfare that Putin has in store for Europe one of Russia's key pressures on NATO has also been the country's economies the invasion of Ukraine also marked a turning point in the world's effort to recover from economic effects of the covid-19 pandemic most predictions in late 2021 suggested that the global economy would bounce back with 5% growth in 2022 but a year later the economy grew only by 3.1% and the forecast for 2023 was similarly Grim at only 2.2% European countries were hit the worst with average economic growth of only 0.2% by contrast Russia was almost immediately beset by economic sanctions upon invading Ukraine according to the BBC at the 2-year mark from the start of the invasion around 4,000 entities were sanctioned by the US to prevent Russia from Gaining vital access to technology and funds to keep fueling its war effort the total number of sanctions against Russia is now more than 17,000 the world gambled that the severed trade relations would drain the country's coffers and prevent it from waging an extended War yet despite all the odds Russia managed to surpass its growth projection by double from 1.3% to 2.6% in 2023 compared to the European average of 0.9% according to the Center for strategic and International Studies Russia's economic growth has slowed by a cumulative 5% over the 2 years since the invasion however the Russian economy has managed to grow despite that effectively the sanctions imposed on Russia have only slowed how much money it can invest into its military Russia has managed to keep its inflation in check thanks to the aggressive Bank interest rates and shifting it export strategy finding itself unable to export its materials and resources to Europe Russia turned to China and Central Asia as its next biggest benefactors it secured a lucrative deal with China to export oil albeit at a discounted price of what it used to set for the European market despite that the country managed to earn $15.6 billion in oil export Revenue in January 2024 if Putin carefully navigates Global geopolitics to keep these trade deals and the price of oil stays put Russia could theoretically fund its War Machine forever solely due to favorable exports additionally according to the budget reports for 2024 Russia might be going all in on the war effort and bolstering its military a report by Reuters suggests that Russia will freeze its spending on education and Healthcare while also heavily curving its investments in infrastructure and construction this could point to a concerted effort to win the war in Ukraine and move on to the next goal as quickly as possible if Putin can manage to win back Ukraine and enforce Russia's demands on the world stage then the Local Economic losses from unequal spending could easily be recouped by Russia's greater presence and access to Capital from enforced global trade perhaps more importantly Russia's acts on the world stage militarily and economically have started a noticeable shift against global trade according to a report by ruter the two major blocks the US and China have started to drift apart economically with over 31% less bilateral trades since 2018 that means that the countries in their respective blocks have started looking more favorably toward the other countries that their main trading partner already uses this would also mean that the economic structure if this trend continues would more readily approach the situation present during the Cold War where the two sides pretty much exclusively dealt only with their block and forwent any serious global trade while some economists believe that this trend would spell Doom for Russia the country's economy has proven more resilient than previously imaginable if Russia could maintain economic growth despite sanctions allying with China and more closely depending on the world's second largest economy could prove to have its merits while China is technically a neutral party in the war its interests are more closely aligned with that of Russia it's also one of the US's biggest political and economic Rivals and its trade routes are more vulnerable to American interference if China manages to exploit more of Russia's resources providing Putin with much needed money and War War technology in return then both countries could seemingly share these goals and try to undermine the global economy but How likely are all of these plans to work on the military front Sweden and finland's accession into NATO has put a significant wrench into Putin's plan to utilize the salki Gap to its fullest extent with the land border extended NATO can create a more effective counter offensive and undermine Putin's efforts to control kaliningrad furthermore even if Trump wins the 2024 elections and starts the process of removing the US from NATO the vote is ultimately not up to him it would likely take a restructuring of Congress to get the vote passed meaning that the decision could be postponed by a year or more furthermore even if the US leaves NATO it can still elect independently to go to war against Russia if the latter decides to mount an attack on Europe even with the us out of the picture it's not certain whether Russia can mount a successful military campaign in Europe due to most of the European countries agreeing that Russia has become a threat and many in to increase their military spending and Readiness Russia might face a front more united than it first appears economically Russia is also on its back foot while its current trade relations with China are lucrative Russia's efforts to expand its economy and influence are heavily undermined by the US and the EU if ether decides to encroach on China's trade deals more heavily China could try to force a deal with Russia that might not go in Putin's favor additionally China itself could be a military threat to Russia if it considers that access to to Siberia and Russia's current preoccupation with Ukraine are worth the risk but what do you think do Putin's plans of destroying NATO have any Merit or will the alliance prove to be unbreakable and force Putin to reassess Russia's imperialistic Tendencies Russia is preparing for a full-scale war with NATO by 2026 so says an alleged leak of German intelligence that leak supports this conclusion by pointing out the reorganization of the Russian army movement of troops along the border with the west and repositioning of both conventional and nuclear missile forces and the mobilization of the Russian defense industry within 5 years the report States Russian strength could double as at the writing of this script the veracity of the report has yet to be confirmed but even without confirmation what the alleged report States is clearly evident already but wait we can hear you saying in the comments section already didn't you report for 2 years that Russia was weak infographic show well just because your dad never came back from the store doesn't mean that things can't change what has prompted this new stance on Russia who up until last fall was seen as a rapidly diminishing power how did we get here and how confident can we be about further Russian aggression in the future it all comes down to Western support for Ukraine as it so often does when the history of this war is written no matter what happens next one thing will be clear the West refused to take the Russian threat seriously and treated Ukraine as an afterthought sending nothing more than token military aid because it was never serious about defeating Russia even two years into the war we still don't have a definitive statement from either the us or NATO that its goal is a Russian defeat for his many many many gross missteps in this conflict the one thing that Putin has done expertly is make the West Brown its Collective pants at any thought of Russian escalation effectively neutering all but token bits of aid for Ukraine we need look no further than Francis Emanuel macron who at the start of the war even as the Russians were being forced to retreat from keev in a humiliating defeat stated that Russia must not be quote humiliated well 2 years later we have a completely different macron who as one of the few European leaders who has seen the writing on the wall is now mulling over the possibility of sending French troops into Ukraine with or without NATO support to see how we got here it's also helpful to compare Western Aid versus Russia's own ability to resupply its forces in early 2023 the West finally agreed to send leopard twos Challengers and abs tanks to Ukraine the West celebrated the move and predictions of catastrophic Russian defeats and Ukrainian forces taking Moscow by Fall made the rounds across the media much to the West's Collective surprise though a ptry force of barely over a 100 tanks not even all delivered in time for summer failed to win the war in one Fell Swoop versus Russia's thousands of tanks and ifes truly not even sunu could have possibly predicted that a few dozen secondhand tanks wouldn't immediately win the war against Putin's hordes that's not to say that Western tanks didn't help help or weren't decisive they absolutely were everywhere that Western tank showed up Russian tanks immediately became a federally protected endangered species Western infantry fighting Vehicles were also significantly decisive in engagements against their Russian counterparts as has been seen in countless clips from the fighting while the BMP runs the Bradley hunts and when Western Vehicles were defeated their Crews didn't immediately joined the Ukraine Space Program the way Russian tank Crews have historically been promoted to cosmonauts instead Ukrainian Crews survived their vehicle's destruction and lived to fight another day but Superior as Western Equipment may be it's incapable of winning a war in the pithy sum supplied to Ukraine even worse to date there's been no plan to actually replace these tanks with ongoing resupply this leaves Ukraine in the impossible position of having to plan out military operations where it has no guarantee of actually replacing the equipment it loses in combat which means the nation is forced to hoard its res sources out of fear that it may not receive Replacements that is not a smart way to wage war now f-16s are on their way to Ukraine and much hype is being made about their entry into the war like Western tanks and ifes though there is also no plan in place to replenish Ukrainian losses and continue supply of jets over the long term like Western tanks f-16s will make a splash wherever they appear but will ultimately be too few in number to significantly affect the outcome of the fighting this mirrors perfectly the Eng of longrange strike missiles into the Ukrainian Arsenal Storm Shadow and attacks made a hell of a showing when they entered the war with Ukraine granting an early retirement to several Russian Black Sea Fleet senior officers in just one Storm Shadow attack likewise attacks turned multiple Russian Attack Helicopters to Swiss cheese in its debut attack and has on multiple times permanently densified entire formations of Russian soldiers far behind the front lines but within months of their entry into the war the strike stopped because the weapons ran out and you guessed it there was no plan for Ukraine to actually get more Britain itself was already in dangerously low supply of storm Shadows due to significantly underestimating the threat of major conventional war and criminal underinvestment in its military a casualty of the postc Cold War peace dividend shared by most powers in the west the United States bulked over and over again about providing attack thems out a fear that they'd be used inside of Russia itself and to be completely Fair it's the only nation with a legitimate need for its own stockpile of missiles as attacks could play an important role in the Pacific conflict against China France stepped up to the plate and began to provide its own scalp missiles to complement delivery of Storm Shadow and mron has recently announced the transfer of 40 more scalp along with hundreds of other aerial bombs however Olaf Schulz refused to provide Germany's Taurus missile despite pressure from across NATO fearful of escalation despite there being no escalation to either storm Shadow attacks or any of the dozens of other weapons given to Ukraine in 2 years of fighting backlash against Schultz yet again bking at providing war-winning weapons has escalated to the point that German legislators are investigating ways of providing the weapons in a way that bypasses Schultz the west and wider World Beyond is slowly waking up to the very real threat that Russia poses not just in Ukraine but beyond but other than the West's criminal neglect in handling the Russian threat how is Russia gearing up to Europe the first factor is Russia's ability to adapt to a war that it was losing up until relatively recently Russia has increasingly attempted to emulate the West's military culture that places a high priority on individual initiative without much success this is left the Russian military still operating under a Soviet style top down command structure with little room for subordinates to act of their own accord this has been especially true after the Vagner coup where Russian military leaders have increasingly been promoted more for their loyalty than their actual experience or capability these are all bad things but the good thing for Russia is that its military has proven adaptable to the many strategic and tactical failures of its past the Russian military for example no longer operates tanks and armored vehicles in large formations during assaults which we saw repeatedly decimated across the first half of 2023 and all of 2022 instead it's opted for smaller scale tactics often sending assaults out in small group groups of unsupported infantry which identify and fix Ukrainian positions for artillery to the pound rather than sending in a large contingent of vehicles to reinforce the attack instead we've seen far smaller scales of attacks of bmps and tanks limiting losses to Ukrainian artillery and drones this actually exploits Ukraine's shell shortage as the uaf is loathed to expend its remaining stockpile of artillery shells on small targets next Russia has offered increasingly lucrative pay packages to New recruits willing to serve in Ukraine when the conflict started junior officers made about 81,000 rubles a month or 900 bucks far below rates in Western militaries however 6 months later Junior troops who enlisted could earn as much as 195,000 rues a month or $2,100 other perks include Grocery and housing allowances things that are typically standard in the US military in some cases Russia even offered as much as 1 million Rubles or $1,000 as an enlist bonus for its quote Elite divisions these recruitment packages are incredibly attractive to Russians living in the nation's poorest oblast with an estimated 13.5 million Russians living below the poverty line according to defense minister seru these incentives have generated quote two combined armies a mixed Aviation Corp and 50 new formations and military units including four divisions 18 brigades and 28 regiments of course shu is a lying sack of shitzus so his figures should be taken with a grain of salt though given the dramatic expansion of the Russian military they're also not entirely imaginary as most Russian claims often are then there's the mobilization of the Russian industry which has now been officially put on a war footing this more than anything accounts for Russia's growing successes in Ukraine because while Russian equipment may be garbage it's generating enough to drown Ukrainian defenders in a tital wave of it in 2024 Russian defense spending doubled to 7. 1% of GDP a figure similar to the famous arms buildup of the United States in the 1980s when America beat the Soviet Union at the Cold War by simply outspending it defense spending will account for about 35% of the total budget and industries directly supporting the war are experiencing unprecedented growth production of Transportation Vehicles Rose 66.7% in 2023 and computer and electronics manufacturing Rose 42.6% indicating that Russia is still able to procure badly needed microchips despite International bans thanks to China navigation devices Rose 72.4% and protective clothing Rose by 40.4% at Arms factories Across the Nation production is now run 24 hours a day and a new government committee has been established to oversee defense production this committee has absolute power over Russian industry even capable of taking over a company's budget entirely and forcing the cancellation of vacation or time off requests by workers if there is a bright spot in all this it's that the Russian industry is significantly less efficient than it was pre-war thanks to a combination of sanctions and the pull out of Western businesses and Investments Russia lacks the Investments and Technical expertise to maintain or replace some of its high technology assets forcing it to rely on more inefficient but locally produced Alternatives this is hitting the Russian energy sector especially hard as Russian oil companies were extremely Reliant on Western technology inside of their refineries hardest hit has been natural gas with Russia not having the technology to liquefy Natural Gas a growing concern as Ukrainian drone strikes increasingly Target LG Terminals and other refineries rather than actual oil extraction sites but the reshaping of the Russian economy paints a dire picture as the West continues to hem and haw over every single bullet sent to Ukraine Russia is pumping out equipment at a frightening rate it claims to have received 1,500 new and modernized tanks after tripling vehicle generation rates in 2023 yet it's impossible to know how many of these are new and how many are simply refurbished Vehicles pulled out of deep storage we know those stores are beginning to run out and what's left is unlikely to be of much use already there's evidence that Russia is ripping the turrets out of t-55s and using them as armored personnel carriers instead while estimates vary a modest figure of 200 new tanks a year seems reasonable and as the numbers of of Tanks held in deep storage runs out those factories will instead be free to convert over to producing new tanks in artillery shells Russia has absolutely dwarfed the West with estimates of 250,000 new shells being produced a month in addition to an unknown number of shells purchased from North Korea this puts Russia on track to produce 3 million shells a year while the US is expanding its own production capabilities to hit 100,000 shells a month by 2025 though this effort has been due to speaker Mike Johnson refusing to allow a vote on the Ukrainian Aid bill of the 1 million shells promised to Ukraine by the EU in 2023 just over half of that was ultimately delivered there are efforts to purchase 1 million shells from abroad but that doesn't fix the dir in production by the west and Russia has a massive head start on production the results are evident on the battlefield despite a successful and vigorous campaign against Russian Artillery by Ukraine that saw the uaf achieve shell par or even superiority across parts of the front we're now back to the old days Russia is once more firing 10 times as many shells as Ukraine with direct Battlefield effects all across the front the lack of shells is leading to slow but incremental victories by Russian forces Russia has also begun to produce drones in vast numbers at the start of the war Russian forces were completely unprepared for the onslaught of Ukrainian drones yet now Ukrainian forces are reporting not just a parody in drones but an overmatch in some areas iranian-made Shahed kamakazi drones are now being produced domestically with Iranian help and it's converting civilian drone industry to military use inspection of crashed Russian drones has revealed Swiss American and Chinese components leading the West to attempt to tighten export controls yet most of these components are easily available in civilian products and while this limits the effectiveness of Russian drones the sheer quantity of them is a quality all its own while drone attacks against civilian and infrastructure targets were originally only carried out by a small number of drones as recently as January the ukrainians report shooting down as many as 35 Shahed drones in a single attack leaked internal Russian documents showed that the nation plans on expanding production to 6,000 kamakazi drones by 2025 though this plan comes with a hitch these drones rely overwhelmingly on Western components from the US Germany Switzerland and other Western Nations and an effort to stop or curb secondhand sales out side of the EU in North America could put a serious crimp in those plans yet as usual the goal of 6,000 drones a month hints that Russia's willingness to pursue this campaign past Ukraine it's not a simple matter to mobilize a nation's industry and then just wind it down switching from civilian to military production is a sizable investment in resources and one you only make if you're expecting to continue producing military equipment in the long run simply put Russia has opened The Floodgate and after weathering intense Western sanctions it has little reason to Simply close it up again if anything Russia has gotten tcid approval from the West itself to continue its campaign in Ukraine and Beyond it as well Putin has proven that the West is largely disorganized and despite proclamations of unity is anything but each new major weapon delivery prompts Fierce debate amongst Western leaders and after 2 years of fighting NATO has yet to commit to Ukrainian Victory even worse as Russian industry mobilizes Western efforts to match it sputter and struggle to gain traction western gear may be superior but that matters little when it's drowned out by overwhelming numbers of Russian kit NATO has shown that it lacks the backbone to challenge Russia directly and Putin's indirect threats of nuclear weapons have been sufficient to deter the west facing a disorganized reluctant and unprepared West Putin has every reason to believe he could win a war of attrition against NATO's Eastern flank this puts the baltics and even Poland directly in the firing line and Russia has for years wanted to force the baltics back into its sphere of influence and close the salki gap there's even reason to fear that Russia would attack Finland as well as a way of punishing it for joining the NATO alliance but even more insidiously to prove that NATO's Article 5 commitment is a farce this has been a NATO fear for decades even before the war in Ukraine during his presidency US President Barack Obama warned of a fate to comply attack into the baltics by Russia with the nation seizing part or the entirety of a Baltic state and then digging in in the defensive Russia gambled then and today that NATO would fear escalation to a nuclear conflict too much to actually honor its Article 5 commitment and the war in Ukraine has proven that he's probably right about that if Article 5 fails the NATO alliance would lose all credibility and quickly fall apart reverting Europe back to a pre-World War II state of insecurity it would also open the door to Russia reclaiming the Soviet territories it lost at the end of the Cold War a stated goal of vladim Putin and his administration for years this has seemed far-fetched and yet it's not just NATO's failure in Ukraine that's making this possible it's the possible loss or at least non-commitment of NATO's most important member the United States as its largest military power the US underpins NATO's security and indeed is the logistical backbone that would get much of NATO's forces into the fight yet America's commitment to Nato has become questionable at best sparking a panic in Europe Federal defendant Donald Trump has publicly stated that he would not allow but actually encourage Russia to attack NATO states that he felt weren't quote paying their dues no American president has ever undermined the NATO alliance this way let alone actively encouraged a hostile foreign power to attack America's allies yet Trump Harbors other Putin sympathies that has alarmed many in Europe and in the US and in the past threatened to pull the us out of the alliance now it's his arm of the Republican Party the mega Alliance which is actively blocking badly needed Ukraine Aid and has done so for months despite a bipartisan agreement to fund both Ukraine Aid and border security the most robust border security bill in history and one endorsed by the national border patrol Council speaker and Trump Ally Mike Johnson has refused for months to allow the bill to come to a vote leaving NATO would require Congressional approval and yet Trump has placed himself in position to gain the support that he needs should Republicans control the Senate fear of upsetting Mega supporters has prompted many otherwise moderate Republicans to tow the party line and with the appointment of Laura Trump to the Republican National Convention the mega block has significant power to empower the election of Mega friendly Republicans this has opened the door to a trump presidential win in 2024 with Trump publicly stating that he would not support Ukraine any further while loyalists paint this as an attempt to enact a peace settlement Europe is in an increasing state of alarm over what a Russian takeover of Ukraine would intend and what would come next as Russian industry has been fully mobilized for war the writing is on the wall and Europe must Empower Ukraine to fight Russia today and do it itself in a few short years potentially even without us support let's say Russia wins the war in Ukraine but rather than sit back and enjoy the Victor spoils Vladimir Putin begins to systematically attack NATO targets across Europe and the rest of the globe worse still NATO receives no support from its biggest and most powerful Ally the the United States a nightmare scenario or a terrifying reality according to a report by intell news citing the German newspaper build such an attack could come as quickly as February or July of this year and even though the Kremlin spokesperson Dimitri pesc was quick to refute such claims stating recently this newspaper has regularly stooped to publishing various fake news items and canards many leading political commentators predict that Russia will attack NATO's Eastern flank sooner rather than later if accurate this unprecedented show of aggression would Herald a huge armed battle in Europe and likely precipitate World War III however any Invasion wouldn't be confined to just military action Russia would commence hostilities with cyber attacks and hybrid Modern Warfare techniques the likes of which were linked to election interference and destabilization tactics and many leading Western countries in recent years primarily in the Baltic States before launching an attack on Poland's Eastern borders to understand how these predictions have gone from Mere scare mongering to genuine concern we have to rewind the period immediately preceding Russia's attack on Ukraine we're talking about Putin's repeated warnings to the West regarding NATO expansion into Central and Eastern Europe and ultimately a new NATO base in Poland let's not forget the NATO Russia founding Act of 1997 ostensibly prohibiting the US from having permanent bases in the region in a report from The New York Times the case for invasion of Ukraine was outlined by Russia as follows it's a fact that over the past 30 years we have been impatiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible Security in Europe in response to our proposals we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail while the North Atlantic Alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns has Putin got a legitimate reason to feel grieved and is Russia's current stance somewhat Justified not according to the US they feel that Putin effectively nullified the act with his annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent invasion of Ukraine 8 years later to counter Russian aggression in Europe US President Joe Biden has endorsed any such measures in a moment where Putin has shattered peace in Europe and attacked the very very tenants of the rule-based order the United States and our allies we're stepping up he feels the US is in the midst of a fight between democracies and oligarchs the figures speak for themselves there are now around 100,000 US troops temporarily deployed in Central and Eastern Europe and while that might appear to be a small number compared to the 370,000 Troops that were deployed in Europe in the late 1980s before the fall of the Berlin Wall it still constitutes a significant force one that has irked Moscow for years but if that's the case and the US is Keen to further expand its European military presence why can't NATO rely on the superpower support especially if Putin does the unthinkable and attacks their bases in the Baltic states and Poland that question has many complex multifaceted answers but perhaps the biggest and most relevant of those imponderables is the upcoming US presidential election despite a slew of increasingly complex legal problems in the US it now looks likely that the controversial former president Donald Trump will secure the Republican nomination and take on Biden in the November election if the current polls are to be believed Trump holds a slim but perhaps significant 2% advantage over Biden at least as of the making of this video should those predictions prove correct and Trump was reelected what would his stance be toward NATO and the involvement in any military conflict with Vladimir Putin a leader he has previously expressed admiration toward Paul cork a political scientist at the University of British Columbia in Canada summed up the nature of their relationship in the following terms for Newsweek magazine Trump as president was extraordinarily and very suspiciously responsive to Putin and Russia and hostile toward NATO NATO's vital importance for American interests makes Trump look bad so it's no secret that Trump had a strained relationship with NATO during his presidency and pretty much any other organization that didn't 100% align with the America First policies that dominated his agenda and is opening to cooperating with the Kremlin in an article featured in the Atlantic in 2024 he was quoted as saying I don't give a bleep about NATO and their conflicts are not worth American lives pulling back from Europe would save this country millions of dollars annually former National Security adviser John Bolton puts Trump stance toward NATO and the US's historical allies in the following chilling terms the damage he did in his first term was reparable the damage in the second term would be irreparable so a trump re-election could well be the reason why alarm Bells Are Ringing across Europe and especially within NATO but How likely is a trump Victory again that's a hard question to answer for anyone looking from the outside in the former president and billionaire businessman's position looks tenuous to say the least in another report from the Atlantic this time from January 17th it's reported that Trump currently faces 91 felony across two state courts and two different Federal districts any of which could potentially result in a prison term these charges are incredibly serious and range from fraud sexual assault defamation bribery to the removal of official government documents from the White House and election subversion or in effect treason following his refusal to accept defeat in the 2020 presidential election some states and lawsuits could see him disqualified from running for president altogether despite all the lawsuits Trump remains incredibly popular with some sections of the American electorate you only need to look at his recent victories in the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire whatever his harshest critics might think it's unlikely that any other figure in political history would have been able to survive the Fallout from such claims and still be considered a viable presidential candidate by a huge swath of the population all of which makes him an exceedingly dangerous and hugely unpredictable proposition not just for NATO but the wider world but perhaps all is not lost even if Trump is reelected remember any decision to leave NATO would have to go through the US Senate and that would be a difficult if not almost impossible motion for the new Trump Administration to push through and could even lead to a constitutional crisis election Intrigue aside what of America's obligations to the global Community its International partners and close allies since the signing of various postc World War treaties that's where we come to one big stumbling block and up till now a huge deterrent to any large-scale Russian military action in Europe Article 5 of the North Atlantic treaty constitutes the very basis heart and soul of the alliance of Nations but what is Article 5 and why might it stop Russia from attacking NATO the North Atlantic Treaty NATO's founding treaty signed in 1949 sought to create a pact of mutual assistance to counter the threat of the Soviet Union if it tried to extend its control over Eastern Europe every NATO nation made Article 5 a pact of collective defense a key component of the alliance itself the Crux of the treaty can be neatly summarized as follows the parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that if such an armed attack occurs each of them in exercise of the right of individual or Collective self-defense recognized by article 51 of the charter of Nations will assist the party or party so attacked thus the US is legally obliged to rush to the defense of any country targeted by Russian aggression right not if Trump and his political supporters get their way and effectively leave NATO but is that even possible in a word yes Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty States after the treaty has been enforced for 20 years any party May cease to be a party one year after its notice of denunciation more worrying many voices of opposition have been making a case for America deserting the Union in a Newsweek report from July of 2023 Republican representative from Georgia margerie Taylor green called NATO not a reliable partner and claimed that other members are not paying their fair share in an election year when many Americans have seen their living standards hit by the numerous different and complex conflicts raging around the world the desertion of an organization that's seen on a drain on American resources could be exceedingly popular put simply the economy is a hugely important factor to the majority of Americans the question that remains is whether or not the economic Prosperity on a domestic level in the US can come at the cost of Global Security and whether or not the two are inextricably linked the nightmare scenario for the long-term security of Europe and Beyond was succinctly summed up by Thomas gift founding director of the center on us politics at University College London it's not out of the question he said that a future Administration namely a trump one would take an anti-globalist agenda to the point of pulling the plug on the alliance Biden for his part is trying to paint a Rosier picture after securing one of the biggest election victories in US history when he defeated Trump back in 2020 he told a recent Summit in Lithuania that the US has an Ironclad commitment to Nato today our alliance remains a bull workk of Global Security and stability as it's been for more than 7 decades NATO is stronger more energized and yes more united than ever in its history however many would argue that this simply is not true and if Biden isn't reelected a radical shift in policy could bring down the curtain on 70 years of cooperation and leave the door open for Putin to attack NATO bases in Eastern and Central Europe if that potentially devastating possibility became a reality what sort of resistance would he face on the ground for starters one of the biggest most modern and well equipped armies in the world Poland in recent history the poles found themselves helplessly sandwiched between not just two of the most powerful Waring Nations on the continent Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler and Soviet Russia under Joseph Stalin but the prevailing ideologies of capitalism and communism naturally in the relatively peaceful post-cold War years Poland has systematically transformed itself into a military power in its own right the country has taken steps to never again find itself helpless and open to Invasion and occupation and no one could blame them but would Poland be able to withstand a fullblown Russian attack the likes of which Ukraine has only been able to repel with significant help from the US and its other allies especially when the US might well refuse to become involved in any conflict whether directly or indirectly let's look at some facts and figures according to a Euro news report from 2023 Poland has big plans in regard to strengthening and expanding its military over the next 10 years vorsa wants to recruit about 150,000 troops bringing its Army from the current 128,000 active personnel and 36,000 territorial defense troops to 300,000 Soldiers by way of comparison the UK a nation with a long and proud military tradition had 142,5 60 Personnel serving in the British armed forces in 2023 it's an indicator of not just how far Poland has come but how seriously the country is taking its military defenses in increasingly uncertain world but what about Hardware Poland has purchased over 1,000 new tanks and 600 artillery pieces mainly from South Korea and the us all of which gives the country more Firepower than the UK France Germany and Italy combined those numbers would be Unthinkable during the height of the Cold War but they're a cold hard fact today showing just how determinedly Poland would repel any Russian show of aggression but it doesn't end there they also boast 33 new M1 Abrams Tanks as part of a 4.5 billion Euro or $4.9 billion order of 250 Poland is also waiting the delivery of around 1,000 K2 black panther main battle tanks from South Korea 10 of which are already in their growing Arsenal toss 180 k2s to the mix expected by 2025 and up to 820 additional tanks and you get an even better idea of just what Poland currently brings to the table and what it'll be capable of in the short to medium term when it comes to the country's emerging artillery cap cap abilities Poland spent 9.2 billion EUR to purchase 468 High Mars rocket launchers their potentially battle altering piece of equipment the type used by Ukrainian forces against the Russians over the past 2 years the Polish Army must be so powerful that it does not have to fight due to its strength alone said prime minister matus morvi in November of 2023 the ultimate aim of the current polish government is to build the most powerful land forces in Europe if Putin were to shift Focus to Nato targets Within Poland's Borders or even launch a full-blown invasion of the country itself it would be safe to say that he would face even stiffer resistance than he has in Ukraine Poland has not only sufficient troop numbers but also the requisite military hardware to defend its territories against any proposed Invasion but would this even be enough to deter Putin from risking another giant role of the geopolitical dice to answer that question we need to take a closer look at the current conflict in Ukraine first and foremost Russia has suffered major losses in the war that's already lasted far longer than Putin predicted at the onset of the invasion a report from Reuters in December 2023 estimated that Russia has suffered losses to the tune of 315,000 dead or wounded troops to provide an appropriate and awful historical context in the brutal and bloody 9-year war in Afghanistan Russia lost 14,500 troops but there isn't only the human cost to calculate in any War Russia's also suffered a huge loss in terms of military hardware according to to a Newsweek report from 2023 as the conflict approached its 600th day Russian forces had lost 4,965 tanks 9,385 armored personnel vehicles and just under 7,000 artillery systems total Russian aircraft losses total 318 as well as more than 5,200 drones 20 boats and one submarine infamously targeted by cruise missiles in September of that same year Frederick Mertens a strategic analyst with the heg Center for security studies made the following observation about the toll of the conflict on Russian forces destroying your enemy remains your first priority in battle and Ukraine seems to have done far better than the Russians all of which shows what a devastating impact the war in Ukraine has had on both Russian troop numbers and the kremlin's cers as a result would Russia be in a position to attack NATO targets or even invade the Baltic states and Poland anytime soon worryingly Putin probably thinks so why according to a report from defense post Putin plans to seriously overhaul his military forces by 2026 but what does this expansion consist of exactly and would it help to lead Russia to Ultimate Victory if the Rumblings coming out of the Kremlin are be believed this will mean a dramatic increase in troops bringing numbers up to 1 and a half million active personnel as well as infrastructure Armament buildup and structural reorganization The Institute for the study of War isw sees this as a clear plan designed to build a significantly stronger Russian military quickly however the isw did deliver a significant caveat to that claim and this would significantly affect the country's capabilities of attacking NATO Targets in the future while Russia might be able to maintain the tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term it is unclear if Russian forces would be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation but why would Russia want to build its military strength quickly the obvious answer is to boost their flagging attempts to conclude the conflict in Ukraine however many would argue that Putin has always been playing the long game concerning any military expansion and not just concerning the current War for proof take a look North the Arctic region is considered a crucial geopolitical stronghold and the key to future world domination for any aspiring superpower since 2005 Putin has reopened and refurbished many military bases in the North Atlantic to the point that Russia now has many more active facilities than NATO and the US combined these sites are host to Ice Breakers with which Russia hopes to open a lucrative trade route linking the North Atlantic to its strategic Partners in Asia nuclear submarines significant troop deployment and missile tests not to mention the untapped resources all of this presents a whole new and worrying picture but will that include Russian attacks on NATO for many talk of a Russian attack on NATO or invasion of any countries affiliated with the organization is pre mature to say the least but not completely out of the question more conservative predictions suggest a Russian conflict with NATO forces won't take place for another 5 to 8 years at the earliest still whatever the timelines involve Europe and the rest of the world better prepare themselves for a war to end all wars all of which brings us full circle undoubtedly the global political situation is tense fraud and potentially as dangerous as it has been at any time since the end of the Cold War in addition to the conflict in Ukraine and ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas many other countries and political or militant groups are perpetrating aggressive acts against each other on a daily basis from the houthis to the Vagner group all the way back to Hezbollah whether for territorial geopolitical or ideological reasons you could argue with some justification that the world is teetering on the brink one decisive push in a certain direction and any number of Wars could break out in any part of the globe at any given time but what of the United States the self-professed World Police Force a country that's never backed away from intervening on a global level or bed from sending troops to every corner of the globe if Trump finds himself back in the white house at the end of the year will that significantly increase the risk of War breaking out between Russia and NATO and perhaps more pertinently how would NATO farare without arguably its most powerful and influential member should the US choose to leave the organization how much of Vladimir Putin's aggressive rhetoric should the global Community take at face value for many years the the Russian leader warned the west and most directly NATO against any military expansion plans in Central and Eastern Europe it is the red line which we have spoken about on numerous occasions they have crossed it the result invasion of Ukraine and all that's come with it at some point in 2024 the Russian Premier is likely to have moved all of his chess pieces into place meaning he'll be ready to strike at that point NATO has good reason to be worried and with the war weary Western pow struggling to justify continued military action and financial backing to the baguer Ukrainian Nation will anybody be able to stop Russia but what do you think is a concerted Russian attack on NATO part of Vladimir Putin's long-term military strategy will NATO be able to rely on us support in the face of any aggression from the Kremlin perhaps the answers to all these questions and more lie with the upcoming presidential elections when the American people finally speak it may have seismic repercussions for peace and stability across the globe finland's recent admission into NATO has been a GameChanger anger for NATO finland's lengthy 830m long border with Russia will spread out any remaining Russian military resources making it more difficult for Putin to gather sufficient forces for any future invasions and finland's army contains some of the best winter troops in the world but of even more importance will be Sweden's admission despite some hiccups that slowed finland's admission down for a few months Sweden's admission looks to be delayed much further why is it taking so long to approve Sweden into the alliance if they and Finland submitted their requests at the same time and is the effort to get Sweden admitted worth it in the long run for Nato one of the supposed aims that Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed for his invasion of Ukraine was to stop the expansion of NATO's membership further east into Ukraine NATO is an entirely defensive organization created to protect its member countries from Soviet Russia's military intrusions into Eastern Europe following the end of World War II despite that defensive stance Putin has claims NATO is threatening Russia's very existence he's actually blamed NATO for his invasion by claiming they started the war with the admission of Finland into NATO and Sweden's admission promised by US President Joe Biden as a foregone conclusion it seems Putin's efforts to contain NATO might have massively failed instead his militaristic efforts in Ukraine have forced many countries to reverse their previous neutral stance Sweden joining NATO is assured said the president on June 1st at a graduation ceremony at the US Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs his exact words were it will happen I promise prise you a day before the July 11th and 12th 2023 meeting of 31 members of NATO at their annual Summit in vnus Lithuania major progress was made towards Sweden's Ascension into the alliance on July 10th erdan confirmed that he'll stop blocking Sweden's bid to join the alliance with Hungary following soon after it seems US Secretary of State Anthony blinken's wish has now come true as he stated in May that the time for Sweden's membership is now these two countries joining NATO signal a huge step forward both for the countries themselves as well as NATO both Finland and Sweden have tried to remain neutral following World War II with Finland having suffered through a Soviet invasion of their own known as the winter war in 1939 and 1940 following that Invasion Finland was forced to sign the Treaty of Moscow on March 12th 1940 through which Finland was forced to seed 11% of their territory to the Soviet Union ever since Finland has been wary of Russian expansionist aims which is why they opted to request membership in NATO soon after Russia's inv of Ukraine in February 22 a little over a year later in April of 2023 Finland was approved as NATO's 31st member after some initial delays by NATO members turkey and Hungary those two countries however are still refusing to approve Sweden's admission as per NATO rules any new additions must be approved unanimously part of the reason for that is NATO's vaunted Article 5 which states that any attack on any one member Nation will be considered an attack on all of NATO that Unity is what makes Nat such a strong Alliance but there is also no method for removing a country from NATO once they've been admitted because of that every member nation is expected to come to the aid of any other member that's been attacked that means every member must be willing to support every other member and that's where Sweden's admission has hit a snag Turkish president Reep tayib erdogan has been requesting the sale of $80 billion worth of new f6s and advanced avionics upgrades for its previously purchased f-16s to improve their Air Force but some of the members of the US Senate such as Democrat Bob Menendez chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have been reluctant to approve the sale the senator pointed to turkey's foot dragging on admitting both Finland and Sweden as one of the reasons for his disapproval of the sale after winning reelection in May president erdogan repeated ankar's desire to buy the F-16 package while President Biden told him Washington wanted turkey to drop its objection to Sweden joining NATO the reluctance to sell more advanced fighters to turkey has also been in part because turkey has an onag again off again relationship with Russia which has allowed them to purchase Advanced Air Defense systems from the country including Russia's state of the-art S400 Sam system the US is rightly concerned that any advanced us fighter aircraft that turkey operated could be targeted by such systems and the data collected could be used to improve Russia's future capability to shoot down us Fighters that's in addition to the S400 being incompatible with other NATO systems and in 2021 eredan announced that he would be interested in buying additional s400s from Russia further infuriating other NATO members especially those who would prefer turkey purchased air defense systems from them rather than from Putin's Russia weapon systems aside NATO president stoltenberg noted turkey's concerns regarding the presence of the Kurdistan Workers Party or pkk in Sweden all NATO allies are of course ready to sit down and address those concerns including the threats posed to Turkey by pkk stoltenberg said with such promises in hand president Eran finally gave gave his approval to finland's Nato bid in March 2023 praising the country's authentic and concrete steps in addressing turkey's concerns about Kurdish exp Patriots in Finland and whether they represented a security threat to Turkey but erogan has yet to approve Sweden's entry as he accused the country of supporting Kurdish militants and allowing them to demonstrate on the streets of Stockholm one such demonstration included the burning of erogan in effigy by the rojava committee of Sweden in the wake of that incident Sweden's foreign Minister Tobias bilstrom wrote on Twitter portraying a popularly elected president as being executed outside City Hall is abhorent however this statement was not enough to stop erdogan's outrage following this incident Sweden's prime minister ol christon admitted that his country might appear to have insufficient anti-terror laws and that his government was in talks with anara to see what could be done on his way to azaran on June 14th President erdogan dismissed the possibility that Sweden would be allowed to enter NATO before the July Summit we cannot have a positive approach to Sweden's NATO admission under the current circumstances NATO cannot force us to admit Sweden without Sweden acting against terrorism unless you resolve this issue we cannot merily approve Sweden's membership in villus aran's comments are in contrast to Sweden's attempts to work with the Turkish government and their complaints against Sweden harboring what they consider Kurdish terrorists Sweden has even begun extraditing some Kurds convicted in Turkish courts beginning in August of 2022 President Biden and and Secretary of State blinkin remain hopeful that they can persuade turkey to finally approve Sweden's membership into NATO with possible talks to be conducted during NATO's villainous Summit as recently as June 20th secretary blinkin met with Turkish foreign minister hakan fidan where he stressed the need for NATO Unity at this time of Russian aggression and once again encourage turkey to support Sweden's admission before the July Summit but if Turkey agrees there is one more obstacle that NATO needs to navigate if Turkey can be persuaded it would would only leave Hungary as the final opposition Force for Sweden's admission into the alliance which is a tougher nut to crack Sweden has openly criticized hungary's far-right autocratic leader prime minister vikor Orban and raised concerns about both his human rights record and his clamping down on Democratic opposition to his rule on his way to Doha to attend the Qatar economic Forum in May 2023 Orban said bluntly that his ruling Coalition would not vote to admit Sweden he complained that Sweden unfairly expresses a damaging opinion about the situation of democracy and the rule of law in Hungary Sweden is not alone in voicing their concerns 13 prominent Hungarian intellectuals banded together to write a blistering critique of orban's autocratic rule in a book released in 2022 entitled igos shag shag democracia fent tag which translates to wickedness democracy sustainability Sweden made their position clear in their support for a September 2022 European Union report that lab build orban's Hungary as running a hybrid regime with parliamentary autocracy Orban says his country will deny Sweden's admission unless Sweden revokes this attitude Orban appears unwilling to move from his anti- Sweden policy the political relationship between Hungary and Sweden is terribly bad said Orban we don't want to bring conflicts into NATO he said by approving their admission currently Orban appears to be a solid no and there doesn't appear to be much that the US and the European Union can do to convince him otherwise meanwhile Sweden seems reluctant to back track on what they consider an accurate assessment of his near dictatorial rule there is a possibility that the EU itself might consider applying pressure against Hungary unlike NATO the EU requires that its members display a level of democracy in their governments but so far the EU has not chosen to act against Orban or Hungary in any meaningful way with Sweden's admission currently stalled let's turn instead to see what benefits admitting Sweden could bring to Nato and why the rest of NATO and the EU should work harder to remove turkey and hungary's opposition I to Sweden's admission Sweden's military is Tiny compared to many other NATO members their army consists of around 24,400 active duty soldiers and a promise to increase those numbers by 30,000 in the next 2 years with 121 tanks and roughly 2,000 apcs and ifvs their Air Force operates less than 100 fighter aircraft with another 60 on order and their Navy is made up of some 42 Blue Water Combat ships including four diesel electric Subs seven Corvettes nine mine sweepers 13 large Patrol boats and nine specialized support ships but those numbers hide the biggest four assets that Sweden brings to Nato advanced fighter and anti-tank technology Superior submarine capabilities unique intelligence skills and Sweden's crucial Geographic position Sweden's Air Force may be small but it does boast what many analysts consider the best non- stealth fighter in the world the sa Jas 39 grippin it's a relatively lowcost ruggedly designed fourth generation fighter that contains several advantages over its closest competitor the USU F-16 one of the Griffin's main advantages is its ability to make use of roads and highways for landing and takeoff that allows the Swedish Air Force to disperse their Air Force across wide areas of the countryside making it almost impossible for adversary Nations to Target their resupply and refueling locations the griin manufacturer Saab has developed mobile maintenance packages that contain all the necessary equipment to operate the aircraft and can be positioned almost anywhere adjacent to any efficiently long enough roadway all a griin needs is a straight surface of about 2600 ft and a ground crew of six made up of one engineer and five trained soldiers together they can refuel and reload a grippin in as little as 7 Minutes one of the requirements for taking off and landing on such primitive surfaces is a stronger undercarriage and special tires which the gripin has been equipped with unlike its fourth generation counterparts during development the Swedish design requirements called for a multi-roll plane that could perform J as which stands for jocked air to a attack air to surface and spanning reconnaissance roles continual upgrades have improve the griid with the current model designed as the j39 EF this model boasts a larger engine INF fuselage greater ordinance carrying capability along with a new cockpit design that includes Advanced avionics architecture a new electronic warfare system and other improvements Sweden's participation in NATO would bring with it this advanced fighter which many analysts see as the perfect Fighter for Ukraine to use in its defense against Russia's Invasion the website Bulgarian military.com believes that the best plane for Ukraine to defend themselves would not be the F-16 but the griin it features departures from similar runways including agricultural airports it can be hidden in a wooded area near a road servicing the griin does not require a Depot but a mobile team the griin is designed to be serviced and maintained in real field conditions the griin design itself was designed to meet a Russian threat in a similar War environment Sweden not only has the perfect airplane for the war in Ukraine but also has one of the best anti-tank weapons currently in service the Carl Gustaf recoiless rifle the current m4 model improves over previous versions by allowing multiple launches from the same tube which the comparably us-made javelin does not allow the Carl Gustaf can also shoot different types of ammunition from armor-piercing and bunker Buster Munitions to high explosive rounds and even one that expels 1100 Flett like a shotgun on steroids it also implements a special control mechanism in the trigger that allows the soldier operating it to set a delay for detonation after it's made contact such as with a wall or to explode above a Target similar to what the javelin can do the Carl Gustaf has been purchased by dozens of Nations including the US Great Britain and other NATO members which makes its implementation with NATO ranks easier while it may not seem like such a big deal knowing that Sweden has implemented such a robust and versatile weapon in their military shows they're staying ahead of their future adversary like Russia who may try to overwhelm them with tanks and other armored vehicles one other significant feature of the Swedish military is its surprisingly sophisticated submarine Force while they only operate four diesel electric Subs with one more on the way these are some of the quietest and most effective submarines in the world how quiet are Sweden Subs how about quiet enough to sink a US super carrier in 2005 Sweden participated in an international war game exercise that saw the US deploy the Nimitz glass super carrier USS Ronald Reagan along with a full complement of support ships including an AIS class cruiser multiple destroyers several undisclosed attack submarines and numerous anti-submarine craft all in support of the ragon 85 to 90 combat aircraft and helicopters but all of that Firepower was no match for a single Swedish sub the hsms gotland this small relatively inexpensive at only about $100 million submarine is powered by a unique Sterling engine an air independent propulsion system or AIP such a propulsion system is nearly silent and uses the surrounding seawater as a heat sink to increase efficiency if necessary the gunin class also has 27 electromagnets spread across its hole to make it almost undetectable to Magnetic anomaly detectors the hole is coded with a special sonar absorbing material while the interior Machinery makes use of sound buffering and vibration absorbent shock mounts while it may not have the range or ability to stay submerged as long as a nuclear powered sub it can stay submerged for up to 2 weeks much longer than standard diesel electric subs from other countries the gotland class is perfect for the narrow restrictions of the Baltic where its ability to Ambush surface targets comes into play which is exactly what happened to the ragon the gunland as part of the 2005 war game off the coast of San Diego made numerous attack runs against the Reagan all of which went undetected and all of which allowed the golin to simulate a torpedo launch and successful post attack escape the goin's capabilities Pro so alarming that the US Navy R to lease the gunin for an additional 12 months following the exercise in order to study its stealthiness and develop countermeasures to combat similar boats in the future as good as the Gan class is Sweden is already preparing for an even more advanced and stealthier sub the blackia class also known as the a26 but the improvements including a larger size and bigger crew with the capability to operate in blue water conditions has pushed the price EG up to 650 million and delayed their delivery to 2027 2028 Sweden also operates a very stealthy Corvette the 700 ton visby class these ships have a reduced radar signature and infrared visibility the class is already going through a midlife upgrade and is also being replaced in the future by the Next Generation version of the visby which will provide the newer ships with a modernized rps5 anti- ship missile system a new SD designed lightweight torpedo complement and an improved air defense missile system with the Advanced Hardware that Sweden and its designers have constructed their intelligent services are not far behind either in fact the head of the Swedish Security Service Charlotte vessen said in February 2023 that Sweden can expect increasing levels of Russian Espionage activities targeted at Sweden we see intelligence activities where people want to obtain sensitive information but we also see other types of attacks such as influence operations and various forms of sabotage she said according to Von Essen three sectors call for special attention specifically telecommunications electricity Supply and the transport of critical material the Swedish Security Services works together with the military and security service must in order to prevent Russian Agents from accessing or damaging Sweden's infrastructure Russia has made such attempts in the past including a high-profile case where two Iranian born brothers payman and Pam Kia were convicted in 2023 of spying for Russia's Military Intelligence Agency the gru such spying efforts by Russia have sharpened Sweden's counterintelligence skills which will be of significant use to the rest of NATO along with its sophisticated military and advanced intelligence capabilities Sweden also holds a unique geographical position as the dominant Maritime power in the Baltic Sea one of its most significant geographical assets is gotland Island which sits 105 Mi south of Stockholm unlike much of Sweden's Coastline which is covered with dense forests and Mountain edged fjords gotland contains miles of beaches perfect for both military bases and NATO forward deployment it's also only about 200 mi from Russia's Western most Naval Base at kaliningrad this provides a perfect location for blocking Russian naval access to the North Sea and Beyond not just from kaliningrad but also from St Petersburg further Northeast Scotland also provides a valuable location for cable relay stations as well as for radar anti- ship and air defense installations Sweden's entry into NATO would also allow NATO Air Force units to overfly the country reducing the amount of time for members like Norway and Great Britain to send air units into the Eastern Baltic and while some military bases had been decommissioned in 2005 including gunland many of those bases are being reestablished as part of Sweden's anticipated entrance into NATO these are part of Sweden's planned 40% increase in military defense spending over the next 3 years announced in 2021 they expect to reach NATO stated goal of 2% of GDP spent on their military by the end of 2026 Sweden's location serves as a Lynch pin between Norway to the west and Finland to the east together with Denmark the four Nordic countries would be able to work together to jointly share bases defensive arrangements and other military coordination together they'd provide a strong united front against any Russian military aggression in the Baltic and its nearby areas it seems clear that the difficulties turkey and Hungary had with finland's admission to Nato were eventually overcome after a series of direct talks and deep negotiations it should also be noted that despite finland's admission seemingly taking a long time their admission was actually the fastest ratification in all of NATO history Sweden's admission will also seem like a lengthy process but it's better that the problems are ironed out ahead of time rather than allowing antagonisms to brew in the background only to explode into something worse when direct military assistance is needed Sweden will no doubt be a valuable addition to the other 31 members when they are finally approved and welcomed into the collective when that happens the Baltic region will be United in their Mutual defense which should be a strong enough deterrent that even the most diluted autocrat will think twice about attacking any one of them as President Biden said in April 2023 today we are more united than ever and together we'll continue to preserve transatlantic security defend every inch of NATO territory and meet any and all challenges we Face since Russia launched its brutal invasion of Ukraine on February 24th 2022 there have been calls for NATO to admit Ukraine into its ranks but there are several problems preventing that from happening first the question of whether NATO's consideration of admitting Ukraine into NATO's ranks was the Catalyst for the invasion next NATO must decide whether Ukraine would be able to defend itself in case of another attack on its borders as well as come to the aid of other NATO members if one of them were attacked there's also the problem that every current NATO member must approve Ukraine's bid for membership which seems more likely than the currently stalled request for membership from Sweden did NATO cause The Invasion as Putin claims there are a lot of observers of Russia's invasion of Ukraine who believe that the war would have never happened if Ukraine had been allowed to join NATO before the war although Putin had repeatedly blamed for causing the conflict no one in the west believes his lies Ukrainian President Vladimir zalinski said publicly that if his country had been given NATO membership prior to February 2022 The Invasion would never have happened the united front that NATO presents would have been too much for even Russia to contend with it's clear that Putin was looking to attack Ukraine before they had a chance to join NATO once Ukraine's membership had been placed on track there would have been no way to conquer them without involving the rest of NATO in fact one of Russia's top military leaders up till the recent events surrounding his interrupted march on Moscow yevin progan has stated publicly that The Invasion wasn't because of Ukraine being a threat to Russia but was instead the result of Russian oligarchs greed according to pran's recorded statement on June 23rd 2023 the defense Ministry meaning his two Chief Rivals defense minister seruu and head of the general staff of the Armed Forces feri gasimov tries to deceive the public and the President Putin and tell a story that there was a crazy aggression from the Ukrainian side and that the ukrainians were going with the NATO alliance to attack us therefore the so-called special operation on February 24th was started for completely different reasons why was the war needed the war was needed so that a handful of scumbags could have a blast and get PR attention showing how strong the Army is prosan went on to accuse Russian oligarchs of wanting to profit from looting all of Ukraine not just the previously occupied regions of donbas in the Crimean Peninsula so no there's no evidence that Ukraine's possible long into the future admission into NATO was anything more than an excuse by Putin for what he thought would be a quick land grab the same kind he was able to pull off in 2014 does Ukraine need NATO's protection most experts agree that if Ukraine had joined NATO at some point after it gained its independence from the Soviets Putin's dreams of reforming the USSR would have stayed a dream anyone who's followed the invasion with anything close to an honest appraisal will be aware of the horrific damage that's been done to the country whole cities like marup and bakut have been leveled schools and hospitals have been tar it not accidentally but on purpose then there are the two massive environmental catastrophes one that's already occurred and an even more horrific one that's been prepared and is still pending the first disaster occurred on June 6th 2023 when Russian occupation forces blew up the Nova kova Dam on the nepro river for a few days there were various claims and counter claims about who was responsible but as the weeks went on it became clear that the Dam built during the height of the Cold War by the Soviet Union and designed to withstand even a nearby nuclear blast was too massive to have been destroyed by Ukrainian missiles evidence eventually came out that the only way the dam could have been destroyed was with hundreds of pounds of explosives detonated deep inside the bowels of the structure this experts agreed could have only been done by the Russian forces who were the ones with access to that portion of the dam the subsequent floods released from the Nova kova Reservoir devastated the homes of more than 10,000 ukrainians Russian troops on the left or Eastern Bank of the river fled without helping any of the citizens on their side and took every boat they could find with them and when Ukrainian soldiers attempted to evacuate citizens on their side Russian forces fired artillery and mortar shells at them what might be worse is that the impounded Reservoir held back by the dam fed a canal that supplied as much as 85% of the fresh water to the Crimean Peninsula estimates are that it could take several years and possibly as long as a decade to restore water to the area even if water flow to Crimea is restored sooner the region between the dam and Crimea used that that same Reservoir water to help irrigate their fields long considered a major food producing area for much of the world without that irrigation crops will suffer and farmers will lose their lands along with the drownings of the civilians and the loss of water to Crimea there was also a spill of up to 800 tons of crude oil into the Neo which then polluted the region of Kon Downstream and eventually flowed into the Black Sea additional pollution came from the numerous oil and chemical supplies Downstream of the dam in and around Kon there also reports of Russian landmines washed away by the flood waters which began turning up on shore Downstream so it's no wonder that This Disaster has been called the worst ecological catastrophe that's befallen Europe since the Chernobyl meltdown which also happened to be on Ukrainian soil and was also the fault of Soviet and Russian actions why would Putin do something that he even called in a phone call to turkey's president Eran barbaric analysts believe in part that Putin expected Ukraine to retake Crimea as well as much of the territory of the four Russian occupied oblasts in the southeast of the country like a child saying if I can't have it you can't either he thought his best course of action was to make this area of Ukraine unusable even if it meant drowning thousands of innocent civilians and starving Untold Millions more that's why the possibility of an even worse environmental catastrophe still awaits Ukraine and seems far too likely there are reports that Russian troops have mined the zapia nuclear power plant the biggest nuclear power plant in all of Europe if that plant is blown up it could lead to a massive Cascade of nuclear pile meltdowns since the Nova kova Reservoir was also supplying the cooling water to the six nuclear piles at the heart of the sprawling power plant if that happens the radioactive fallout could spread across 90% of Ukraine as well as parts of Poland bellarus and even Russia if the wind blows from the southwest this isn't just wild speculation though an announcement on June 22nd 2023 by US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal confirmed this they introduced a bipartisan resolution declaring that Russia's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine or the destruction of the occupied zapia nuclear power plant would be considered an attack on NATO requiring the invocation of NATO Article 5 which says that any attack on one member of NATO will be considered an attack on all the members having been criticized for not denouncing Putin's demolition of the Nova kovka Dam this time they made their statement loud and clear Senator Graham stated our message is to those around Putin if you do this if you follow his order if he ever gives it you can expect a mass response from NATO and you will be at war with NATO it is possible that the US Senate has been briefed with classified intelligence describing how the Russians have already prepared the nuclear plant for demolition this knowledge has been widely shared by Ukraine's intelligence Services the main directorate of intelligence for the ministry of Defense Major General Kyo buinov in an interview with the British publication the new Statesman on June 23rd 20123 said the prospect of a Russia initiated accident at the power plant has been raised before but this time he believes it's different the situation has never been as severe as now he warned the same Ukrainian intelligence service had previously warned the world as far back as December 2022 that Russia had mined the Nova kovka Dam and were prepared to destroy it at any time in addition to these pre-planned and heartless ecological disasters Russia is continuously attacking Ukrainian civilian centers with ballistic missiles and drones cruise missiles fired from ships in the Black Sea and launched from long range bombers flying deep within Russia as well as artillery shells fired from occupied Ukraine from the belgrad section of Russia and from the country of Belarus to the north these attacks are not targeting military positions but civilian centers hospitals schools and power stations too often Russia has used cluster Munitions on such targets which are banned from being used in civilian populated areas refugees from Syria are sadly quite familiar with the Russian tactic of intentionally targeting hospitals and schools Russia did this throughout their years of military support of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-assad and they're continuing their streak of terrifying civilians in Ukraine sources have estimated that Russia has fired more than 5,000 combined missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure they're firing them so fast that some of the missiles show evidence that they've been manufactured just weeks or even days before they were launched it's imperative that Ukraine gains the ability to defend itself from such Lawless attacks the only way that that can be achieved is with the protection afforded by the rest of NATO there's a problem however with Ukraine's acceptance into NATO that problem is the same one that protects each member in case of an attack on any one of them Article Five the implication is that if any member is admitted into NATO while in the middle of a war then immediately every other member is involved in that war also such a hair trigger event is what keeps NATO from admitting countries currently involved in ongoing conflicts does EU membership go hand inand with NATO membership while it's not required for NATO membership being a member of the European Union does provide certain benefits for one it proves the country has or is making progress toward following a democratic rule of law as well as cracking down on corruption and allowing free speech and fair elections while these are not the primary indicators for NATO admission which is focused more toward defense spending and overall military capability they are positive signs that show a country can be trusted with goals similar to Nato assession to the EU requires accepting and implementing what's known as The Copenhagen criteria which which includes three primary areas of focus the first includes respect for democracy the rule of law and human rights the prospective member must also prove that they have a functioning market-based economy the third item is that the Country Must agree with and incorporate the EU AI communitary the body of common legal rights and obligations over 80,000 Pages this is a binding agreement for all EU member states although if you search through the eu's official Journal of legislation you'll find that the EU has passed a staggering 6 66,800 of those regulations passed since 1957 are still active so the true size of the active Aki Community is over 170,000 pages long of which over 100,000 Pages have been produced in just the last 10 years officially agreeing to all of these laws is one reason why a country might take years to be fully eligible to join the union according to to tyi milovanov the president of the keev school of Economics an adviser to the zalinski administration and a past Ukraine minister of economy when the EU offered Ukraine its candidacy status in June 2022 the EU asked Ukraine to perform seven primary tasks by June of 2023 a year later the EU reported on what it has and has not done out of the seven priority areas two have been deemed satisfactorily complete one is making good progress and four are listed as having made some progress complete means all measures the EU requires for compliance have been put in place for Ukraine these two pillars cover having a fair Judiciary and a free and open media reform of two key judicial governance bodies and the adoption of legislative protections for Ukraine's media have been fully implemented good progress means that key measures have been taken but some measures still remain to be adopted the EU has judged that Ukraine has made good progress on its constitutional Court reform by adopting necessary legislation in its first reading but the law is pending a second reading this is just a formality and should be approved sometime this summer some progress means that some measures have been taken but critical measures remain to be approved the EU has judged that some progress has been made in the four categories of anti-corruption anti-money laundering de oligarch isation and the protection of national minorities anti-corruption efforts have been addressed through the appointment of new heads of Ukraine specialized anti-corruption prosecutor's office or SEO and the National anti-corruption Bureau of Ukraine na with Ukraine now needing to establish a credible track record of prosecutions and convictions they'll also need to restore the easset Declaration system which requires Ukrainian public officials to disclose earnings and Assets in an effort to combat corruption and enhance accountability of public figures how long will it take for Ukraine to join the EU it was at the June 2022 European Union Conference held in Brussels the eu's council granted Ukraine candidate status that means if Ukraine follows certain guidelines and obligations for membership as outlined above they can be admitted as a full member though the deadline for such inclusion has not yet been set Ukraine was hoping they'd be admitted to the EU within 2 years of the submission of their request made only days after Russia's invasion in February 2022 Ukraine's prime minister Denny schmal has said publicly he would like to see Ukraine's admission ratified within that 2-year span following his comment a liberal Belgian EU lawmaker said almost jokingly that it might not happen even in the following 5 years in the past EU membership acceptance has generally taken much longer the last country that was admitted into the EU was Croatia in 2013 after a decade of waiting for their acceptance Ukraine's neighbor Poland had to wait almost 20 years before they were admitted in 2004 although it's clear that in Ukraine's case there are extenuating circumstances that might suggest a speed up process the ravages that the war has caused to its cities and economy mean that Ukraine will require more assistance from the EU than any European country since the end of World War II moreover with with so many billions of dollars in Aid potentially being sent to the country the EU would need to provide both oversight of the funds as well as lending their expertise in managing such huge amounts of Aid as with NATO the biggest impediment to Ukraine being admitted into the EU is the possibility that Russia's Invasion might still be ongoing the eu's rules don't specifically prevent a country at War from being admitted unlike NATO's strict prohibition generally the EU in the past has avoided admitting countries that have ongoing military conflicts even lowlevel once however it did admit Cypress in 2004 despite the Island's disputed status since being invaded by turkey in 1974 turkey itself has had its membership application fall into stagnation after president tayib erdogan began several crackdowns on critics following what he called an attempted coup in 2016 the eu's requirements for political openness and democracy have fallen on deaf ears under erwan which has caused the EU to table turkey's request for the time being there are several countries who his admission requests have also stalled Albania North Macedonia mova Montenegro and Serbia are the most talked about but there's also Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo and Georgia and as with NATO each member must agree to allow any new members in so even one hold out can block a potential admission in Ukraine's case however it would represent a much more impactful new member it would become the eu's largest territory and would represent the fifth largest population with roughly 44 million citizens following only Germany France Italy and Spain another interesting comparison with NATO membership is the discussion of how the EU would change if and when Ukraine is admitted the membership of a large well populated country on the Eastern end of the block would raise significant geopolitical implications Paving the way for a new north south VSA ke axis that could rival the traditional Paris Berlin one in fact Poland has been one of Ukraine's strongest supporters against the Russian invasion and it would be one of its most significant trading partners when EU membership is finally approved Professor keing also commented on the difficulties of gaining a consensus for a group of countries that's already relatively large and unwieldy the bigger the European Union gets the more difficult it becomes to make decisions and engage in Collective action he said and the EU is already having problems with recent admission Hungary a current NATO member with a bad track record of maintaining democracy which has been a thorny issue when it's come to Sweden's request to join NATO which Hungarian president vikor Orban opposes due to their criticism of his autocratic rule what about Ukraine's military so far we've looked at all the reasons why Ukraine needs NATO support and why they most likely can't be admitted until the current Invasion by Russia is peacefully concluded there are those who believe even discussing Ukraine's eventually joining NATO is a bad thing in an interview from June 3rd 2023 on NPR John Denny research professor at the US Army war college and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council was asked his opinion Denny said I think after the war is over membership of Ukraine in NATO is going to be the only way to deter a future Russian attack and all the instability and insecurity that would then have but until the war is over frankly I think discussing membership for Ukraine in NATO or other security guarantees is really a bad thing for Ukraine actually because if there's discussion of this if there are security guarantees offered frankly I think it incentivizes the Russians to fight harder and fight longer the Russians will not be very eager to end the war if they know Ukraine is going to jump into NATO as soon as it's over this brings up a terrible Catch 22 Ukraine needs NATO's protection because of the Russian invasion yet they can't gain the protection until the war ends by that time either Ukraine will have won and the protection will have come up too late to help or Ukraine will have lost at which point they won't need that protection any longer what's needed at this point is an honest inspection of the different branches of Ukraine's military can Ukraine defend themselves against what was considered up until just a year ago the second best military in the world thankfully NATO members have done an outstanding job of supplying Ukraine with almost everything they need to defend themselves when The Invasion first began they received over 177,000 portable anti-tank weapons mostly in the form of us-made javelins and Swedish made Carl Gustaf recoiless rifles and Stinger surface air missiles in just the first few weeks since then they've received more than $200 billion dollar worth of military aid from NATO members including additional Man portable air defense systems man pads like the US made Stinger along with Turkish attack drones the high highly accurate us-made missile artillery systems dubbed High Mars and other artillery systems as well as tens of thousands of rounds of small arms ammunition and artillery shells and after almost a Year's delay Ukraine is now beginning to receive tanks and infantry combat vehicles from Germany France the UK with the US made abam tanks due to arrive later this year the UK has also supplied Ukraine with its long range Storm Shadow missile which can hit targets more than 150 mi from the front lines the good news doesn't end there Ukraine has managed to capture a huge number of tanks and ifvs from the retreating Russians by October 2022 Ukraine estimated that they had more tanks at that point than they had at the beginning of the war and through Ukraine capturing their abandoned vehicles Russia had actually become their largest provider of armored fighting Vehicles the US has earmarked a total of $3 billion of total Aid to Ukraine of the 113 billion approved in 2022 about 35ths or 67 billion is made up of military supplies already already produced by the US mostly sitting in Stateside stockpiles which the US will simply replace with newer products the remaining two fifths 46 billion is delegated for non-defense projects such as general Ukrainian government support economic support and aid for Refugee resettlement by June 2023 Ukraine has approximately 177,000 of its ground troops trained in the UK under a program called operation interflex by 2024 that number of Ukrainian troops trained by the UK alone is expected to reach close to 37,000 Soldiers with additional thousands trained in Germany and Poland as well as the US Ukraine is now operating an undisclosed number of us Patriot air defense systems which have recorded multiple shootdowns of Russia's supposedly Unstoppable kenzal Hypersonic missile the Patriot has proved to be a godsend for the defense of cities like Keith which have seen seemingly endless bombardments by Russia since the first days of the war Germany has delivered 32 out of a planned 37 get hard self-propelled anti-air system which are especially effective against drones that would be too cheap for the Patriots $4 million a shot missile to intercept Germany is also training ukrainians on their state-of-the-art Iris tslm system boasting a range of about 25 Mi and a 360° view the system in use protecting keev is said to have intercepted 50 out of 50 targets so far as of March 2023 Ukraine is also accomplish something no other country in modern times has done they've sunk a modern capital ship from an adversary's Navy without a Navy of its own using imaginative native designed drones and stealth boats coupled with a newly designed anti-ship missile Ukraine has put a real hurt on the Russian Navy sinking the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet the mosa as well as The Saratov one of their very few alligator class tank Landing ships in all Ukraine's managed to sink 18 Russian ships while forcing the Black Sea Fleet to move much further east into the sea of aof to put themselves out of range of Ukrainian attacks ukra is only lacking one key ingredient for their country's defense modern fighter jets while other former Soviet block countries like Poland have sent Ukraine most of their old suit 27s and Mig 29s what Ukraine needs are more advanced Jets like the US's latest version of the F-16 but sending those Jets has so far been seen as too provocative an act by the West especially the Biden Administration however there are programs underway to train Ukrainian Pilots to fly the F-16 as well as the ground Crews necessary for the plane's upkeep and operation currently Denmark and the Netherlands have agreed to begin training ukrainians on their f-16s while Australia is considering sending a small Fleet of 41 Surplus fa18 Hornets to Ukraine planes which Australia is replacing with the F35 stealth fighter there are also discussions underway to provide Ukraine with Sweden's highly regarded Jazz 39 gripin fighter which has the advantage of being cheaper than f-16s easier to maintain with only a six-man ground crew and is designed to be able to use highways as their run runways this allows their Air Force to be dispersed more widely than an Air Force whose planes must be kept at an easily targeted Airbase all of this military assistance and training together with the grit and determination of Ukraine's highly motivated population has made the Ukrainian Armed Forces into perhaps the most powerful military in Eastern Europe they've also turned Russia into what Secretary of State Anthony blinkin called the second strongest military in Ukraine with their recently launched counter offensive underway Ukraine will have its chance to prove just that and hopefully when they've managed to force the Russian Invaders out of their country they'll become the reliable Eastern bullwark of Europe a well equipped well-trained and highly motivated Ukraine will become one of NATO's strongest members when they're finally allowed to join in July 2023 US President Joe Biden sounded certain when he talked about Ukraine joining the NATO family one day he said it would happen but not yet he wouldn't even give a timeline much to the Chagrin of the Ukrainian President Vladimir zalinski but what if Mr Biden's promise was made up of about 85% hot air that's what some political pundits say they say there's a reason for this absence of a timeline because it won't happen at all or at least they say it won't happen anytime soon whether Ukraine wins the war or not there's too much at stake they say Joe Biden might be well into his post-resident ship retirement when Ukraine is finally accepted into the gang but even that's not certain what if the risks are just too big and what if the US and some other leading powers are actually quite content with how things stand despite their upbeat rhetoric about a possible new addition to this happy defensive family this is what we'll explore today while some countries have been calling for Ukraine to join NATO through an expedited process especially Eastern European ones others are hesitant after all in the world of balance of power politics every country is out for itself strategically they must play their cards right for some Ukraine joining NATO improves their hand but for others not so much if this sounds vague you'll understand what this means soon the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or NATO was established in 1949 with three goals in mind deter Soviet expansionism stop nationalist militarism on the European continent in part thanks to a North American presence and encourage political integration of European countries the establishment of NATO on paper was for the greater good of mankind the first members were the US UK Belgium Canada Denmark France Ireland Italy Luxembourg the Netherlands Norway and Portugal what's important today is Article 5 of the treaty it states that any attack on a NATO member in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all NATO can then take quote action as it deems necessary including the use of Armed Force to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area in short NATO policy says we've got your back that's a promise not a maybe we should just add that NATO has its sight set on expanding to the Asia Pacific region so the treaty might have to be up dated at some point it would become evident in this show why NATO is opening its giant arms far from the North Atlantic it's got something to do with the c word the big sea and we don't mean cancer or bleep NATO is not supposed to be an aggressive Alliance it's a defensive Alliance at least on paper paper that some NATO critics say isn't as the expression goes good enough to wipe your backside with the so-called family has its fair share of Skeptics including Nome Chomsky an outspoken critic of US foreign policy over the years he recently called NATO the most violent aggressive Alliance in the world and when he said that he was talking about Ukraine joining NATO Chomsky cited NATO military activity in Serbia Iraq and Libya as examples of NATO aggression he said you could hardly call NATO's military actions in those countries a matter of peacekeeping we'll later discuss chomsky's recent and controversial conversation with the famed political activist and whistleblower Daniel ellberg a man who in that same conversation said the highly frictitious word words NATO is our KRA with the mafia call our thing these comments from the two highly divisive Scholars are important in relation to this video whether you resolutely support them or vehemently oppose them we think their arguments about Ukraine and NATO are interesting another controversial character who has talked critically about NATO is the political scientist John mimer he's what's called a political realist today's Ukraine won't join NATO video is mostly a realist argument so it would be helpful for you to know something about political realism Mir shimer has written a lot about war the balance of power in the world and why countries do what countries do when trying to preserve or bolster their National Security notably in his book The Tragedy of great power politics in which he tries to show through his realist theories why great Powers acted the way they did when Wars broke out or they started Wars or they covertly or overtly undermined or attacked another state mimer has written that the USA will do whatever it takes to to remain the world's sole superpower whether that means starting Wars encouraging other countries to fight Wars standing back or offering support while not sending in troops in relation to this in 2015 he predicted the West is leading Ukraine down the primr path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked Mir sher's military theory is like a real life game of Risk countries will do anything to maintain their power in the realists might is Right World he's an offensive realist not a defensive realist which means he holds a skeptical View and frankly depressing view that means countries assume other countries have the worst intentions that's why they're stuck in an endless cycle of aggression it's also why Mir shimer doesn't believe in China's so-called peaceful rise as a great power just as many and higher echelons of the US government don't offensive realists believe countries will actively pursue security through domination in heemy whereas defensive realists say countries will act more reserved while trying to maintain their security good or bad does doesn't often come into it despite the rhetoric often heard in the media or from politicians mouths example as a supposed Bastion of liberal democracy in the world during the Cold War the US helped overthrow democratically elected leaders around the globe to replace them with tyrants who committed terrifying human rights abuses and in some cases Mass Slaughter of civilians just recently a US politician said if we abandon Ukraine to the dark Forces of autocracy we will pay a price the US has abandoned plenty of countries to dark autocracies in the in the past in the name of protecting its power this is important in regard to today's rather skeptical video mimer might still argue that the US is the best country in the world to have as the sole superpower it's not pretty great power politics it never was heavy is the head that wears the crown the US wears the crown but not through being nice bear this in mind as we go through the upcoming arguments we'll often speak about China in this show Even though China isn't actively or overtly involved in the Ukrainian War China says Mir shimer is heading in the direction of war with the US like the US it wants to preserve its power through domination and hegemony China wants the crown and it too will go to any lengths to get it at least according to the offensive realist Theory weakness realists say can lead to other countries taking advantage of you like the UK US France Russia and Japan did when China was weak and it endured what is now referred to as the century of humiliation China got the poop kicked out of it and it took a long time until it got back on its feet let this serve as an example of what could happen when a country's military is weak mimer believes that China is seeking to become the regional hegemon in Asia which the US certainly doesn't want therefore the US might be drawn into conflicts when trying to protect its Asian allies in short Mir shimer says an intense security competition with considerable potential for war will take place between the US and China this show is about Ukraine joining NATO but China matters it matters a lot mimer made himself vastly unpopular with a large large part of the American populace when at the start of the Ukraine war he believed Russia's Invasion on the United States and its European allies stating Putin was in the wrong but that the US and its allies had pushed Russia too far what did he mean by that as you know NATO was not disbanded when its main threat and main reason for its existence the Soviet Union no longer existed when Soviet leader Mel gorbachov was dismantling the Soviet Union he sought assurances that NATO would not expand Eastward he wanted security measures in place for Russia he believed the expansion of NATO would directly threaten Russia while the West thought Russia would still pose a possible threat in Europe in fact gorbachov wanted Russia to join nato in 1990 telling us Secretary of State James Baker you say that NATO is not directed against us that it is simply a security structure that is adapting to new realities therefore we propose to join NATO Declassified British files show how Russia's next president Boris yelson also proposed it according to a statement made by the British defense secretary Malcolm riffkin George Robertson who was the former British defense secretary who led NATO between 1999 and 2003 said Putin in his early days also wanted to join NATO Robertson said a combination between him and Putin went like this Putin when are you going to invite us to join NATO Robertson well we don't invite people to join NATO they apply to join NATO Putin well we're not standing in line with a lot of countries that don't matter these were the days when Western politicians and Western media looked quite favorably upon Putin when he said things such as I cannot imagine my own country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the Civilized world in the year 2000 an article in New York Times magazine called Putin a Humane version of Peter the Great a ruler who will open the country to influence of the world at once gentler and more Dynamic than Russia has ever been he was called utterly professional in the same article President Clinton said he was a man he can do business with President Bush later said I looked the man in the eye I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy we had a very good dialogue I was able to get a sense of his soul now let's get back to Nato expanding Eastward Jack Matlock who was the US ambassador to Moscow from 1987 to the fall of the Soviet Union said that categorical assurances were made that NATO wouldn't expand to the east Declassified documents found in the National Security archive at George Washington University show us Soviet German British and French diplomats had all talked about the expansion of nato in the Eastward Direction stating that Poland Hungary and the Czech Republic's joining NATO should be off the table NATO expansion they said would be perceived as aggression that could lead to bloody conflict between the two largest nuclear powers in March 1991 British prime minister John Major made the Assurance while visiting Moscow that nothing of the sort will happen notably none of this was legally binding they were words not signed documents still in January 1990 German foreign minister h dietr genser proposed that NATO issue a statement saying there will be no expansion of NATO territory to the East and closer to the borders of the Soviet Union in February genter said for us it is a certainty that NATO will not expand to the East and that applies generally a now Declassified memorandum shows that James Baker offered Ironclad guarantees that NATO's jurisdiction or forces would not move Eastward when gorbachov said that NATO expansion was unacceptable Baker replied we agree with that Baker again said it is important for the Soviet Union and other European countries to have guarantees that if the United States maintains its presence in Germany within the framework of NATO there will be no extension of NATO's jurisdiction or military Presence by a single inch in the Eastern Direction but were they talking about East as an East Germany not the whole of Europe that's still debated but many politicians and security analysts over the years and in the US and the rest of the West have warned about Native expansion Eastward it's not a secret the guardian wrote in 2022 it has long been clear that NATO expansion would lead to tragedy we are now paying the price for the US's arrogance Joe Biden's CIA director William J Burns warned about such provocation many times saying it would turn out very badly in 2008 when he was then the American ambassador to Moscow he wrote to Secretary of State condalisa rice saying Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian Elite not just Putin I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests he added Russia will respond Russian Ukrainian relations will go into a deep freeze it will create fertile soil for Russian medling in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in a meeting with Putin Burns was told Ukraine in NATO would be a hostile act toward Russia we would do all in our power to prevent it earlier in 1997 50 well-known foreign policy experts signed an open letter to President Bill Clinton saying something similar we believe that the current US Le effort to expand NATO is a policy era of historic proportions that will unsettle European stability there may not have been a formal agreement not to expand NATO but was expansion the right idea the controversial people whose arguments we're talking about today say no it wasn't just as Burns said interestingly Salon in 2023 said Burns should use his considerable expertise in Russian Affairs to help negotiate an end to this brutal and unwinable War the writer then asked would that make him a Putin apologist or a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize as you later see Americans are divided about the Ukraine war and Ukraine joining NATO much because of the things you'll hear in this video of course NATO did expand Eastward it expanded a lot through its open door policy but so far not as far as Ukraine on March 12th 1999 Poland Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO on March 29th 2004 NATO welcomed Bulgaria Estonia lva Lithuania Romania Slovakia and Slovenia Albania and Croatia joined in 2009 Montenegro in 2017 Macedonia joined in 2020 Finland was the last sign up in 2023 Sweden will be next let's now go back to April 2008 at the NATO Summit in Bucharest when NATO issued a statement saying Ukraine and Georgia would also soon become part of the NATO family according to Mr Mir shimer Russia saw this as an existential threat remember meher's way of thinking is related to his theory of great power politics in which countries act offensively to weaken others for Russia NATO expansion and turning Ukraine into a pro-american liberal democracy was a direct threat to the existence of Russia if Ukraine joining NATO is an existential threat to Russia then what we might have on the table is two of the world's most powerful nuclear Powers one day going to war remember under Article 5 the us would have to support Ukraine militarily if it were invaded and if being in NATO really is a threat to Russia's existence then what would Russia do if this became a reality that's the big question we'll come back to it soon many political scientists weren't surprised that at the NATO Summit in vilnus Lithuania in July 2023 no timeline was put forward for Ukraine to join NATO president zalinski was not content with the results of the summit going as far as to release a signed declaration saying Ukraine's future is in NATO that wasn't good enough zalinski wanted a timeline zalinski it seemed had had enough of promises he needed a date on his calendar to Mark with an X he wrote on Twitter it's unprecedented and absurd when a time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine's membership he had every right to say that why all this one day and someday talk why not say something more solid well the argument being put forward in this show is it's because it's not going to happen let's now talk more about why in terms of world powers who is the USA's biggest competitor it's certainly not Russia not even close it's China in realist Logic the US should be preparing for a war with China so it doesn't want to put itself in a position where a direct war with Russia becomes a possibility recently we've seen the mountain of resources it takes to fight a modern land war in Ukraine even if things didn't get nuclear with a possible us-russian War does the US want to expend so much of its money resources and soldiers in a European War when China is militarily growing in size becoming bigger and bigger of a threat if Ukraine were in NATO the us would have no choice but to help Ukraine all of this would only help China in a game of Risk what would you do if you were playing as the US and you wanted to remain the world's only superpower would you expend so much of your resources in Europe as China bolsters its military would you gamble a nuclear war with Russia a country that may believe its very survival is at risk Ukraine could even win the war and it still wouldn't get into NATO not for the foreseeable future at least according to the theories posited in the show today even if it was the case it's unlikely that the war in Ukraine will be over soon and Ukraine will walk away Victorious we have no evidence that tells us that that's going to happen in the next few months in November 5 months after Ukraine's counter offensive began the country had only Advanced about 17 kilm Ukraine's commander-in-chief General Valeri alui said just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough Ukraine has made some impressive gains throughout the war much in part because of support from other nations notably the 00 billion or so from the US perhaps with more weapons Ukraine could break the stalemate especially as Russia might have lost in the region of 315,000 troops Russia is piling money into its arms industry employing more and more people in its factories but it's losing men and equipment at a staggering rate the US has been able to watch from a distance as Russia becomes weaker and weaker there's been growing criticism regarding the money being pumped into Ukraine and there has been a change in how Americans support the war because of it still maybe the US's objective has now been met to substantially weaken Russia if this was really the objective all along as many people are now saying what would be the point of inviting Ukraine into NATO think about that in realist terms from a US UK French or German perspective do they really want to risk the possibility of allout War breaking out in Europe one that could also become new nuclear what would Russia on its last legs facing an existential threat do this is a country with the largest nuclear Arsenal on the planet even if for some reason it just conceded the war in Ukraine which it won't it would still have its nuclear Arsenal to fall back on the continent would still be under a serious threat that's why back in the day both former French president Nicholas sarosi and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel aired the criticism of George W Bush's plan to bring Ukraine into the NATO family Merkel said Russia would see it as a declaration of war Russia still sees it as a declaration of war in 2023 Vladimir Putin called Ukraine in NATO a mortal threat to Russia here's part of his speech during the years that followed the breakup of the Soviet Union the West never stopped trying to set the post-soviet states on fire and most importantly finish off Russia as the largest surviving portion of the historical reaches of our state he said the West namely the US wants one thing Russia's strategic defeat he added what does this mean to us this means they plan to finish us once and for all you might not agree with this of course and like any politician Putin is a master of rhetoric and a major producer of propaganda but is he right about the West wanting to weaken his Nation to the point of catastrophic failure according to Mir shimer Putin's goal is not to take over Ukraine but to do enough damage and have enough territory in the east of the country to turn Ukraine into a rump State a shadow of itself which will render it less of a threat to R Russia but importantly make it so it wouldn't be able to qualify for NATO membership a chaotic bust up state will not get into NATO Putin is thinking this according to mimer we can't stress enough that Mr meher's words are very contentious but it seems like his theory has gained a bit of traction many Western military and political experts have talked about the red lines that can't be crossed which will set off catastrophic events Humanity won't easily recover from Ukraine joining NATO seems to be one of those lines now back to chsky in the 2023 interview he shared with the Pentagon papers publisher Daniel ellberg in which Chomsky said he believes we might be sleep walking toward a nuclear apocalypse he said in that interview the Ukraine war has been regularly described as a proxy war between Russia and the United States over Ukrainian bodies it's getting harder and harder to pretend that that's not what's happening he believes that if no side can back down if there's no diplomatic solution we could head toward species Extinction ellberg said the same that with UK in NATO the us would have to join the war a war he said which could mean a nuclear winter on the horizon and the world as we know it ending he explained I would say every person in the world has a stake in preventing that from happening and that means persuading the us to continue what Biden is saying so far at least not to send f-16s and American fighters of various kinds into the war to threaten Putin and to trigger him possibly to carry out these threats which I think should be recognized by everyone in the world as monstrous insane immoral ellsburg reminded us of the words of George F Kennan once ambassador to the Soviet Union sometimes called the architect of postor War II us strategy of Soviet containment in 1996 in an article Kenan wrote for the New York Times he said expanding NATO would be the most Fateful Error of American policy in the entire post-cold War era he thought it was very similar to an invasion or at least that's how it would be perceived he also said I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies I think that it's a tragic mistake there was no reason for this whatsoever no one was threatening anybody else ellberg explained that in this situation I believe that Putin would very likely carry out his threat to initiate tactical nuclear war at least with obviously a very great danger even a probability a high priority of escalating to an allout War ellberg added that a land war between the US and Russia would not end in a stalemate like other us Wars it would not Peter out like Afghanistan or end with something like what happened in Vietnam he thinks this would be the war to end all wars he said I would like to see individual members of NATO in Europe recognize now for the first time they are looking down the barrel of nuclear first use threats he believes that prior to the invasion Putin had asked for signed assurances that Ukraine would not join NATO referring to a meeting Putin and zalinsky had in Istanbul when the then Israeli Prime Minister naftali Bennett had acted as a mediator they were apparently open into diplomatic Solutions in that meeting agreeing on territorial issues and Ukraine not joining NATO ellberg explained apparently there was an agreement which according to the report Boris Johnson of Britain flew to assure that if zinsky made any such concessions or compromises any agreement like that would not be agreed to by the Allies like the US and the UK in particular This was later confirmed he said by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin who said that the objective of the US was always to weaken Russia still as things stand at the end of 2023 much of the world is now asking for a diplomatic solution they want the war to end if not out of fear of nuclear war but because people of the world have suffered economically there's also been a growing skepticism among some Nations about the possibility of a Ukrainian victory in late 2023 left-wing Slovak prime minister Robert fiso called for peace talks and announced his country's military aid to Ukraine was to stop he shared some Stern words not much heard in Western media sounding a lot like ch Mir shimer and ellsburg he said I am convinced that a large part of the European Union is deliberately living the war in Ukraine as a big lie in fact Ukraine is only being used for geopolitical purposes to weaken Russia economically and internationally and it serves as a golden calf for the arms companies of the merchants of death in the name of these geopolitical goals I fear that the West will go to war with Russia to the last Ukrainian Soldier and we are not far from that goal of course no one will openly admit to these immoral goals Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez orador has also slammed the war saying that the money the US has spent on Army Ukraine would have been better spent on the region North America he said it was irrational but we guess he wasn't thinking like a military strategist can you imagine what he and others would say if Ukraine joined NATO and all the Western Powers were drawn into a potentially world-ending conflict no one wants that most people are calling for diplomacy many of them see Ukraine in NATO as an pending disaster at home inside the US the New York Times in December said within the public sphere support for the Ukraine war has been flagging especially after what the times called Ukraine's failed counter offensive nonetheless President Biden said it's in our overwhelming National interest and international interest of all our friends any disruption in our ability to supply Ukraine clearly strengthens Putin's position even so this kind of thinking has seen dwindling support according to Gallup polls in November 2023 41% of Americans say the US is doing too much to support Ukraine and 64% of Americans say neither side is winning the war 43% say the US should help in the war quickly even if that means seeding territory to Russia still Gallup says there's a partisan divide in the US more Republicans and independents want this war to end quickly even if Ukraine doesn't get everything it wants then Democrats who in large numbers are Still Holding Out for a full Ukrainian Victory and getting back its lost territory also many more Democrats than Republicans want Ukraine in NATO how about Libertarians it seems they are for the most part against Ukraine joining nato in 2023 the libertarian Think Tank the KO Institute condemned Putin for his unjustified attack but called the conflict a US proxy war it wrote an open-ended conflict with steadily increasing entanglement against a nuclear armed power with far more at stake is a bad deal for the American people the Biden Administration should engage in serious discussions with Moscow about ending the conflict and building a stable security structure will this happen next year or will the US double down on its support for the war as we've said the US has to think about China and the fact of what has been a unipolar world meaning the us as a sole superpower could soon be turning into a multi-polar world with China not Russia being Us's major rival it's no wonder the US is hesitant to welcome Ukraine into NATO Russia has already been considerably weakened the job has been done with a plum the US has been very successful if you're skeptical enough to believe that this was always a proxy war if the US has to sink much more resources and God forbid Manpower into Ukraine it might start to look like China has the upper hand some pundits have said that China has been the biggest winner in the Ukraine war since it's been able to sit back while the US piles money into Europe Ukraine in NATO would at the very least mean piling a lot more money into Europe however if Ukraine doesn't join NATO and the US doesn't go to war in Europe then the us will come out of this in a strong position Chomsky in another interview called Russia's Invasion an act of brutal stupidity and said the invasion was an immense gift to the United States he said it cost a fraction of the Colossal US military budget and has degraded a serious military competitor he called the war a bargain for the US on top of that the invasion he said became a pretext for NATO to not only exist but expand more and more critics like Chomsky have come out over the years as anti-nato with some calling it a tool of American imperialism if that is true Russia's Invasion might have helped the imperialists but there is the question if the US has already succeeded why is it still talking about Ukraine in nato in 2023 the realist Think Tank the Quincy Institute for responsible statecraft said when the US promises Ukraine will join NATO someday that someday will never arrive since the US doesn't want World War I the writer of the article said this begs the question why continue to make a promise when there's no real istic path to achieving it why fight over a principle NATO's Open Door that's largely theoretical anyway because Ukraine can't actually join the alliance without triggering the continent-wide conf floration NATO was established to avoid in the first place why carry on why not just focus on China Russia's already too weak to control the rest of Europe which was always what the US has tried to prevent from happening under its Global counter honic policy Russia's GDP in 2022 was only slightly bigger than Italy's it it was less than France is in the UK's and well below Germany's there will be no haimon in Europe anytime soon Russia doesn't have enough money equipment or Manpower certainly not now an article in geopolitical monitor said moscow's military campaign has not accomplished much so far and the war is exposed that the Russian army is nothing more than a feeble shadow of the Soviet Red Army the belief that Russia is a major military menace to Europe is fading what it does have is those nukes and written into its nuclear Doctrine is that they can be used when there is aggression with Conventional Weapons against the Russian Federation when the very existence of the state is threatened the doctrine also states that strikes may happen if there are attacks against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions if membership is not forthcoming Ukraine will be given humanitarian and non-lethal Aid and there will be massive reconstruction projects under us multinationals such as Black Rock and JP Morgan who will support the Ukraine Development Fund already in action there is a hell of a lot of money to be made from Ukraine's recovery it sounds cynical but it's a fact of life the way of war the destruction of Ukraine it's widely been reported has led to record profits for the world's biggest arms Industries and after they're done tearing things down lots of money will be made putting things back up already the Prospectors are talking about hundreds of billions of potential investments in Tech Health natural resources and agriculture in November 2023 Ukraine's investment promotion agency Ukraine invest signed two memorandums announcing Partnerships with Western investors some Independent Media is talking about us and Western European Agra business firms already having bought up millions of hectares of Ukrainian Farmland at least 500 Global businesses from 42 nations of the world have signed the Ukraine business compact it said in a statement that it'll help realize Ukraine's huge potential Ukraine doesn't need to be in NATO for any of this to happen it's already happening Western capital is pouring in let's just hope that soon the standard of living for ukrainians who've suffered so much will vastly improve there will be efforts to create better Democratic institutions in the country too that historically have been plagued by corruption and absolutely made life hard for the average Ukrainian person with that and a much improved military Ukraine may become a better-looking Nation but that certainly doesn't mean that every single NATO member as is needed will sign the dotted line for Ukraine to join the NATO Club importantly as French president Emanuel macron called for Ukraine will get compelling security assurances from the West macron won't be signing any dotted line anytime soon he said in a speech that Ukraine will get the security assurances that goes with full-fledged membership to Nato but he added such membership isn't accessible today now you know why if you believe the Skeptics now you need to watch how the Taliban became so powerful or have a look at was President JFK really killed by the CIA