Notes on Climate Change Discussion with Ben Shapiro

Introduction

• Discussion led by Rush reacting to Ben Shapiro’s views on climate change.
• Ben Shapiro is a political right commentator, often skeptical about climate change claims and solutions.

Ben Shapiro’s View on Climate Change

• Acknowledgment: Human activities have some effect on climate.
• Skepticism: Claims that climate models have been inaccurate for 20-30 years.
  • Models have overestimated warming (claim disputed by Rush).
  • Reality: Climate models predict a range of possibilities based on different CO2 emission scenarios.
  • On average, ensemble models by IPCC have been accurate.

Scientific Consensus and Climate Impact

• Majority agree that climate warming is occurring and human activity is a significant contributor.
• Warming Figures:
  • About 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels due to human activities.
  • Human activity responsible for nearly 100% of the warming.
• Ben’s Underestimation: Suggests migration and adaptation to slight sea level rises.

Key Climate Change Threats

• Sea Level Rise:
  • Predicted to rise approximately 3-4 feet by 2100.
  • Underestimates agricultural impact due to climate instability.
• Agriculture: Faces the largest threat from unpredictable climate patterns.

Storms and Economic Impact

• Storms:
  • More intense storms with potentially reduced frequency.
  • Increased energy in storms due to ocean warming.
• Economic Discussions:
  • Collective action problem in addressing climate change.
  • Ben mentions a Nobel laureate economist suggesting intervention at 3.5°C warming.

Global and Economic Considerations

• Developed countries are main emitters & should lead in action.
• Developing Countries:
  • Often lack easy access to fossil fuels, renewables could be more viable.
  • Solar power is a promising alternative due to geographical and economic contexts.

Criticism of International Agreements

• Paris Agreement: Labeled as ineffective; emissions still rise.
• Optimism lies in technology making renewables cheaper.

Conclusion

• Disagreements on severity and approach to climate change.
• Common ground on need for better international agreements and solutions.
• Suggestion for continued dialogue to reach consensus on climate action.