Since its first commercial flight in 1970, Boeing's 747 Jumbo jet has flown over 3.5 billion passengers. When you see the 747 take off or land, it's almost transfixing, because the plane itself is so beautifully designed. Boeing called her the super jet. The press called her Jumbo. There was a time when people said, if it's not Boeing, I'm not going.
Now, there are passengers who avoid or are scared to get on Boeing airplanes. Five years ago, 346 people were killed in two plane crashes that happened five months apart in Indonesia and Ethiopia. Both planes were Boeing 737 MAX 8s.
The iconic company that once had a great reputation for safety is losing more and more market share to rival Airbus. Nightmare scenario for passengers. The clothes on one child sucked out. My message is Boeing hasn't changed since the last time we talked.
It's let's get your act together. Get. aircraft that are quality at first and foremost and safe. When you see the 747 take off or land, it's almost transfixing because the plane itself is so beautifully designed.
Boeing called her the super jet. The press called her jumbo. It makes the best landing.
of any airplane. And you are in awe that somebody even dreamt that this could fly. Since its first commercial flight in 1970, Boeing 747 jumbo jet has flown over 3.5 billion passengers.
Its development back in the 1960s was measured in billions of dollars. It was a pretty expensive airplane to develop at its time. We're building a whole new class of airplane, the biggest airplane in the world. It's one of the most recognizable planes to take to the skies, with its iconic hump, four engines, extensive landing gear, and sheer size. The 747-8 tail height is equivalent to a six-story building.
It has a wingspan as wide as two 737-700s lined up nose to tail. It can travel 7,790 nautical miles, carry over 450 passengers, with a takeoff weight of nearly 1 million pounds. The 747 ushered in more affordable long-haul air travel.
by increasing capacity and lowering ticket costs. It quickly became known as the Queen of the Skies and was the first plane to have two aisles and overhead bins. Boeing was already on them when the 747 came out.
But what the 747 did for Boeing was inject the company with a little bit more glamour, a little bit more sexiness. The 747 was always intended to have dual roles. It was designed from the beginning to carry both passengers and cargo. The flight deck was put on top of the plane so that the nose would open for easier loading.
This gave the 747 its upper deck. Boeing produced the 747 for the last 55 years, during which a total of 1,574 airplanes were built for over 100-plus customers. The list price for a 747-8 in 2022 was over $400 million. But over the last few decades, airlines have looked for more ways to cut costs and to make airplanes as efficient as possible. Airlines, even coming out of the pandemic, are trying to save as much money as they can.
So they are looking for ways to have planes that are the most efficient possible. And right now, those are two-engine jets. The last 747 just rolled out of its Everett, Washington factory.
It will go to Atlas Air for cargo deliveries. CNBC takes a look at how the 747 changed aviation and what the future looks like for Boeing's future aircraft. It was the beginning of the jet age. In the 1950s, Boeing introduced the 707, America's first jet airliner.
Jet engines were safer, cheaper, and faster than piston engines. The number of people flying quadrupled between 1955 and 1972, as it became faster, more accessible, and financially possible. Pan American World Airways, or Pan Am, was one of the biggest carriers at the time.
So Pan American came to Boeing and said, we need an airplane twice the size of this. of the 707. The head of Pan American Airways, Juan Tripp, said to Bill Allen, the CEO of Boeing, if you build that airplane, I'll buy it. And Bill Allen turned to Juan Tripp and said, if you buy it, I'll build it. And that's how the 747 got started.
In 1966, Pan Am put in an order for 25 new 747s. One of the original design ideas for the 747 really was going along with what Pan American wanted, and that was building a double-decker. Building a plane twice the size of its predecessor had a significant amount of challenges.
The first iterations of the design were entirely double-decker, but that made it difficult to evacuate potentially 500 passengers safely and in a timely manner. And this moment of innovation, and that was instead of making a double-decker, why don't we make a wider airplane? Why don't we make a twin aisle go 20 feet wide? And so... The Twin Isle, the wide-body jet.
Even though the design wasn't a full double-decker, it was still twice the size of the 707 and required new innovations. What made it possible to make this giant jet was a revolution in engine technology. These new engines, especially compared to the turbojet engines of the day, were very efficient. The 747 wasn't Boeing's biggest project at the time.
It was also working on the 2707 Supersonic Transport, or SST. What's interesting about the 747 when it was first introduced is airlines expected it to be an interim aircraft that they would use between their first generation of jets and the coming wave of supersonic planes that were expected to enter service later in the 1970s. So the designers of the 747, they understood this, that at some point in the future, the 747s would be converted into freighters.
And so they purposely set out to make the 747 the perfect freighter. The SST program. program lost government funding and the prototypes were never finished.
Well, obviously the supersonic era didn't happen quite the way we expected. And so frankly, I think that led to a much longer life and much greater success for the 747. Once they finalized the specs for the plane, how are airports going to handle this plane that is more than twice as large with wingspan, more than twice the width? of previous aircraft and an airplane that is much heavier. So that led to how Boeing designed the landing gear. It has 18 wheels, and that's designed to spread out the weight of the plane so that it could use existing runways.
But some airports had to widen their runways and taxiways. They built new terminals to handle this. They had to invest in new baggage handling systems.
In fact, the plane was so big, Boeing had to build a plant around it during its construction in Everett, Washington. Today, that building is the biggest. biggest in the world by volume, and where Boeing builds its other widebodies.
These costs along with the SST project and the development of its other new jet, the 737, created a significant financial strain on the company. One of the biggest challenges for Boeing, how do they fund building it? Boeing bet the house on the 747. There were people who said literally that this airplane would not fly. There were also people who said financially this airplane would not fly.
It was a tremendous risk. That became one of the big issues in those days that the money to build this airplane plane, that Boeing had to negotiate with creditors constantly to keep this program going, keep the company going. But that didn't stop Boeing.
Joe Sutter, who is known as the father of the 747, led the design team, and they, along with other Boeing employees, were nicknamed the Incredibles for building the 747 in just 29 months. When the first 747 rolled out of the factory, it was a huge event. All of the airlines who placed an order sent flight attendants to represent them, and each company's logo was included on the fuselage.
In 1970, Boeing delivered 93 total 747 aircraft with over 60 passenger versions. Pan Am operated the first commercial flight in 1970. When it arrived in London, crowds of spectators greeted the arrival. Because the public was so entranced with the 747, all of the major airlines had to have this airplane as their flagship. Its jumbo size was something passengers, pilots, and flight attendants had to get used to.
My first introduction to the 747 was as a flight attendant in 1972. It was huge. All of a sudden the biggest airplane up in Tidland was a 707 that needed five or six flight attendants. The 747 needed 14. and it had five different sections and each section was a different size.
It was chaos at the beginning. So many airlines used the upper deck level of their first versions of the 747 as lounges for their first class passengers. Some airlines had lounges in coach, and American Airlines even had a piano bar in coach on its 747-4 short time. Very extravagant, very luxurious.
We had fresh flowers in crystal vases. Each meal had a special wine that was paired with it, and had to learn how to properly open champagne. The first ever 747 prototype is still on display at the Museum of Flight in Seattle.
This is the upper deck experience. This was the interior that Boeing used to show the airlines the possibility of what that first class, that premier experience, that premier flying experience could be. Passengers could come up the spiral staircase and have a moment in the lounge.
It was the favorite airplane of the pilots. Captain Lynn Ripplemeyer would eventually become the first woman to pilot a 747 and the first woman to captain a 747 transatlantic flight. She got her start flying cargo for Seaboard World Airlines.
They had professional engineers, so if you got hired as a pilot, you immediately went to the first officer seat. So this very unique set of circumstances happened at the exact right time for me to get hired by Seaboard World and as a 747 first officer. and become the first woman to fly a 747. I went to work for People Express, first as a 737 first officer, upgraded with any gear to captain, again which is almost unheard of, and then we got 747s.
So I became a 747 captain at People Express in 1984. I had so much confidence in that plane. It flies beautifully. I think why many pilots like it is it makes the best landing of any airplane.
The plane was designed for long-haul flights, making international travel more accessible and affordable. It only went to what we would consider to be important cities, major markets, world capitals. And having the 747 serve your airport was a badge of honor. What was also interesting is airlines viewed the 747 as legitimizing them.
So a lot of airlines ordered the 747 when it was first introduced, even though probably they shouldn't have. It also helped transform the air cargo market. It wasn't long that the 747, with its capacity to be a great freighter, that that freighter version came out. And that was in the early 70s with Lufthansa.
And this is really where the airplane came into its own. Airlines all over the world have flown the 747. It really runs the gamut. From United Airlines to Delta Airlines, KLM, Lufthansa, British Airways, Qantas. It was really a plane that flew all over the world.
Over the next few decades, the 747 continued to evolve with newer, improved versions. It also served other purposes, like government transport, including Air Force One. In 1977, Boeing delivered a modified 747 to NASA to use to ferry the space shuttle from its landing spot in California back to Cape Canaveral in Florida. In 1988, the 747-400 was introduced. This version had more efficient engines, longer range, and a modernized cockpit.
It was the company's best-selling version. Overall, the 747's safety record has been good. That's not to say it's been perfect. Some of these problems, though, are more airline-related in terms of their maintenance than the design of the airplane.
But the 747 has been involved with some very tragic events. Two of the most visible were the bombing of Pan Am 103, a flight from London to New York, and the crash of TWA Flight 800 off the coast of Long Island, both of which were 747s. But the 747 was a well-designed aircraft. It actually is probably the safest airplane in the air because of so many redundancies.
The more engines you have, the more backups you have to all the systems. Because each engine provides the hydraulic power, the electrics, the pneumatics, the air conditioning. Everything that the airplane needs comes from an engine.
And when you have four of them, you've got three backups. That airplane can fly on one engine. It's not going to keep altitude. You're going to want to be pretty close to a runway. But everything will still be working that you need to get the airplane safely back down on the ground.
Boeing saw a rise in deliveries through the 1990s before its decline. The 747 was one of the most geographically widely ordered airplane in the world. For a plane of its size, it helped spur the development of the airline hub-and-spoke route networks that we now take for granted. But the 747 was not an airplane designed to serve shorter routes, and so as a result, that limited. The appeal of the 747, and it also limited the usefulness of the 747. Fare's routes and service were regulated by the federal government until the Airline Deregulation Act was enacted in 1978. This created more competition among the airlines and brought fare prices down.
It also created dozens of new airlines and the expansions of smaller ones. With these large planes, they would funnel large numbers of passengers and then funnel them through large hubs. But what passengers want now is to fly nonstop to their destinations. And it turns out that the more fuel-efficient planes, the leaner planes, are able to do that.
And that's something that has essentially killed both super jumbo jets. With four engines, of course, you're going to use more fuel than you are with three or two. So they were finding ways to fly an airplane much cheaper and more efficiently.
And the 7-4 didn't cut it. It's not because people don't like it. It certainly isn't because pilots don't like it.
In the 80s, airlines started to do away with the luxurious lounges and replaced it with seats for increased revenue. Airlines also pack a lot more seats onto planes than they used to. That is the idea.
You know, they want to get as many people into coach as possible. In 1990, Boeing 747s made up 28% of the world's passenger widebody fleet. That's down to just 2% in 2022. And despite the rise in air freight during the pandemic, In 2022, the 747 made up just 21% of the world's wide-body cargo fleet, down from 71% in 1990. In fact, Pan Am plunged that plung far too long, and it's partially responsible for the airline's demise.
In 1991, Pan Am ended operations. So from the mid-1980s into the 2000s, you saw fewer and fewer airlines flying 747s. Those that had them generally... reduced the number of 747s in their fleet. Despite all these signs that airlines were moving away from four-engine aircraft, Airbus, Boeing's main competitor, launched its super jumbo, the A380, in 2007. The company spent billions on developing it and overtook the 747 as the world's largest commercial plane.
It is a full double-decker and could be configured to seat as many as 853 passengers. But many airlines were already moving away from the 747 and the hub and spoke model for more efficient twin engine aircraft. Airbus ended production of the A380 in 2021. The end of the 747 was pretty much inevitable and by some measures, maybe even by Boeing's own doing.
This is the last 747. Number 1,574. When we visited Boeing's Everett Washington factory, the company was putting the final touches on it before heading out to be painted and flight tested. It's an exciting, emotional time for us.
The 747 has been absolutely transformational, certainly to all of aviation, and as part of that to Boeing. It laid the foundation for the twin aisle aircraft that followed. Boeing's only going to build planes that airlines want. The orders stopped coming in for the 747 because Boeing and others have built other aircraft that can do the same job that the 747 can, or close to it.
So the 787 Dreamliner and the Airbus A350 can fly routes that the 747 couldn't. They can go much further nonstop. The company delivered its last passenger version to Korean Air in 2017. That same year, all U.S. airlines stopped flying it. When the 747s We're retired.
People were really sad. United's last 747 flight from San Francisco to Hawaii had its departure covered live on television in San Francisco. It was a big deal.
Boeing 747 was the most successful widebody until 2018, after Boeing's 777 took the number one slot. When you look at the 777-8F freighter and you compare it to the 747, it can carry similar to cargo levels, but with the twin engine economics. And it has over 30% reduction in fuel burn, which is great for our customers' efficiency as well as for sustainability and the environment. Demand for cargo versions remains strong until 2020. 20, when the company announced it would end production of the 747 freighter version. It just really made sense that we would shift to the twin-engine model over the four-engine model of the 747. Atlas Air has the largest fleet of 747s and will take final delivery of the last plane in early 2023. The ending of the 747 comes at a time when the aviation industry is looking to transform itself with more fuel-efficient, environmentally-friendly technologies.
Boeing CEO recently said the company would not design a new airplane in the next decade, while the company waits for new fuel-efficient engines to be developed, since advances in engine technology doesn't yet warrant enough of a fuel cut for buyers. The end of the 747 is pretty much the least of the issues that are going on at Boeing right now. This is a manufacturer that in 2018 and 2019 had two of its best-selling 737 MAX planes crash.
And 346 people were killed. Since then, the company has been trying to regain its footing. It has picked up sales of those aircraft once again.
But it's not the only thing that Boeing is dealing with. It also had production flaws on its 787 Dreamliner that delayed deliveries for almost two years. There's a third front that Boeing is dealing with, which was the replacement, essentially, for the 747, the 777X.
And that's a plane that has been delayed and delayed and delayed, and it's not going to be delivered. and flying for customers until at least early 2025. So the end of the 747 is kind of this turning point for the company. In the meantime, airlines looking to purchase large wide-body aircraft are turning to Boeing's 777 and Dreamliner, as well as Airbus' A350 and A330.
United Airlines placed the largest order of any commercial carrier for wide bodies, and that was for 100 Dreamliners, and they have options to buy 100 more. As for the queen of the skies, the end of production doesn't mean you won't see her flying around anymore. There are 396 747s still flying.
311 are freight, 44 of them are passenger planes, and 41 for VIP or private service, including Virgin Orbit. Six airlines still operate the 747. Lufthansa is the largest, with 25 in its fleet. The airlines that have it will probably continue to operate it for maybe another 10 years or so, perhaps a little bit longer. I think we'll continue to see the 747 operate as a freighter for decades to come because it's a really good freight airplane. There's plenty of other ways to experience a 747, too.
There are hotels, a water park, and many other aviation museums around the world that have them on display. A testament to how iconic and transformative the Queen of the Skies has been over the last several decades. The 747 is beloved in a way that most other commercial airliners.
are not. Remember my first 747 flight? It was on American Airlines from Kennedy to Dallas Love Field.
I don't think you're gonna see, you know, people crying when the 777 or the 787 Dreamliner decades from now is retired. They just don't have the same emotional connection. She was my first jet. That was the first jet I ever flew and I don't know if there's many other pilots that can say that. So I guess that's why she's my baby.
And I think because I felt like if I took care of her, she'd take care of me. You could say it's the hump, it's the shape, the size, all those things. But what I think this airplane, it inspires us that we can do these amazing things.
And I think that that is what has captured everybody's imagination, why there's such an emotional attachment to this airplane, that it just reminds us as human beings that we can do amazing things. Five years ago, 346 people were killed in two plane crashes that happened five months apart in Indonesia and Ethiopia. Both planes were Boeing 737 MAX 8s. Then this past January, Boeing came inches from yet another catastrophe as a door plug blew off an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 plane at 16,000 feet shortly after taking off from Portland, Oregon. A nightmare scenario.
For passengers, the clothes on one child sucked out. This was no surprise. Unfortunately, the company has struggled mightily with manufacturing, and we've had over 20 production quality defects.
You know, it's hard to keep up with all of them. No one was seriously injured in the accident, but the blown-off panel produced a force so strong that some headrests and seatbacks were ripped from the cabin. Fortunately, no one was sitting in the two seats next to the panel. I saw the picture. Everybody saw the opening.
But what I really saw was the empty seat. I imagine every human being who would see that understands the severity and the consequence. There was a time when people said, if it's not Boeing, I'm not going. Now there are passengers who avoid or are scared to get on Boeing airplanes. The Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into the Alaska Airlines incident.
And the Federal Aviation Administration said it found dozens of problems after auditing Boeing's manufacturing process. It just raises issues about the production of Boeing, what's going on. There have been a series of problems over the last few years, and we just need to get our arms around it.
arms around that. Boeing announced major management changes. CEO Dave Calhoun, who was brought in to get the company out of the max crisis in 2019, just announced he'll be stepping down at the end of 2024. We have another mountain to climb.
Let's not avoid what happened with Alaska Air. Let's not avoid the call for action. We will get through that.
And I've committed myself to the board to do exactly that. Boeing stock has also been on a decline. It hit an all-time high in 2019 before the max crash in Ethiopia. plummeted during the pandemic and is down over 25 percent so far in 2024. My sense is until you get an all clear, the stock will probably be stuck in a range. And the key question really, the multi-billion dollar question is, when is the all clear?
And we just don't know yet. CNBC explores how the 737 MAX crisis unfolded and what the future holds for Boeing's best-selling jet. The ceremony took place in the new final assembly building on January 17, 1967. The first Boeing 737 debuted in 1967. Over the last few decades, strong demand for the twin-engine narrowbody jets led to many evolutions of the 737 family.
There have been over 10,000 737s made, and it's flown over 30 billion passengers. The plane is so popular that Boeing estimates a 737 takes off or lands every 1.5 seconds. If you've flown, you've likely flown at some point in your life on a 737. It's one of the most commonly used aircraft by airlines around the world.
The commercial aircraft market is dominated by Boeing and Airbus. Together, their planes represented over 75 percent of aircraft flying last year. The two compete on various types of jetliners, especially narrowbody planes like the 737 and A320, which account for close to 60 percent of the global fleet.
In 2011, Boeing was under pressure after Airbus launched an upgrade to its existing narrowbody plane called the A320neo, which stands for new engine option. The plane was more fuel efficient and could save airlines money. American Airlines, an exclusive Boeing customer at the time, was ready to place a big order with Airbus and told Boeing it would have to move quickly to win the airline over. Boeing took a lot of shortcuts in developing this aircraft, and those shortcuts literally bit Boeing in its behind.
Designing a new airplane could take up to a decade and billions of dollars in investment. Boeing decided to re-engine the 737 with a new engine variant, which was more fuel efficient, and called it the 737 MAX. It's a very simple reason why Boeing was looking at re-engining essentially the 737, which had already been around for decades.
It's cheaper. So instead of building a plane or designing a plane from scratch, what they did was made some changes to the existing aircraft to get planes to market faster and then not to lose out on orders to their rival Airbus. It offers four different sizes of the aircraft, the MAX 7, 8, 9, and 10. The MAX 8 received FAA certification in 2017. During development, Boeing engineers observed the nose tendency to pitch up during a specific extreme maneuver. This led to the design of a software called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS, which would push the airplane's nose down.
In the MAX 8 crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, MCAS was activated after receiving inaccurate sensor data. It repeatedly pointed the nose downward until it struck the ground. Pilots on both flights fought to override the system, but both ended in fatal crashes.
Pilots of all MAX planes were not made aware of MCAS's existence until two weeks after the first crash. It wasn't until after the second crash, nearly five months later, that those planes were grounded. The grounding lasted for 20 months, the longest in aviation history. A report from Congress found numerous design, management, and regulatory failures by both Boeing and the FAA.
It detailed what it called a deeply disturbing picture of cultural issues and said that it will take a long time and serious efforts to thoroughly resolve. In the five years since, Boeing has spent billions trying to recover. But its reputation took another damaging hit after January's MAX 9 door incident. It's a different set of lessons.
Drilling holes wrong, not putting in bolts, right? In one sense, the quality issues are much more simple, where the MCAS issue, the control system issue that they had on the MAX before was... in many ways more insidious because it was just a fundamental design flaw on the airplane.
When the first series of accidents occurred, killing 346 people, Boeing was almost in denial of any problems. This most recent problem, Boeing, to its credit, stepped up to the plate and they said, look, this is a problem. We have to investigate it and we have to fix it. And they've owned it. While Boeing and the FAA have responded more aggressively to the MAX 9 issue, reports and audits of the accident are uncovered.
covering new problems. Preliminary reports said the door panel that flew off the MAX 9 appeared to be missing four key bolts. Boeing has also said that there is not paperwork that has documented the door plug getting opened and getting closed while wrapping up manufacturing on that plane. The FAA production audit found multiple instances where both Boeing and fuselage maker Spirit Aerosystems allegedly failed to comply with manufacturing quality control problems.
The fuselage of the 737 MAX aircraft is made by a company in Wichita called Spirit Aerosystems. No relation, by the way, to Spirit Airlines. There were issues beyond what happened on the January 5th flight. There were planes with mist-drilled holes.
There were parts of the fuselage that were not up to standard. Spirit Aerosystems used to be Boeing Wichita. Boeing spun off its Wichita unit as Spirit Aerosystems to improve profitability. That puts the financial squeeze on... Spirit Aero Systems to build the fuselages for the lowest possible cost.
Clearly, this has come with some intangible cost in terms of quality control. About 70 percent of Spirit's revenue last year came from making parts from Boeing. It's their biggest customer. And then about 25 percent is coming from Airbus. Boeing is now looking at purchasing Spirit.
Some say like it'll give them a little bit more control or a little bit more visibility into its supply chain. Experts also suggest the change in workforce post-pandemic could be affecting quality. It's not a Boeing-specific issue, particularly post-COVID, getting experienced labor. There's a lot of retirement. You think, well, you have a workforce that maybe wasn't experienced.
several variables going on within an experienced workforce where, you know, quite innocently, they just left something off and it wasn't caught by the system, that's where you worry because that should have been caught by the system. And then the big question is, if that wasn't caught, what else? else hasn't been caught. Boeing has also been under pressure to ramp up production. The company has delivered 1,462 max aircraft but has 4,752 unfulfilled max orders.
This has caused a number of issues for the airlines. Some of Boeing's biggest customers are having to scale back their growth plans a little bit. United is pausing pilot hiring for a couple of months. Southwest Airlines is having to cut some of its flight schedules for 2024 because the planes are arriving late. I'm disappointed.
that the manufacturing challenges do keep happening at Boeing. This isn't new. I'm disappointed in that. Southwest and United have the most Boeing 737 MAX planes in their fleets, so the grounding of these planes has had a ripple effect.
Airbus, meanwhile, has been slowly chipping away at Boeing's market share. Boeing had a big increase in net orders from 774 planes in 2022 to 1,314 planes in 2023. But Airbus had over 2,000 orders last year. It has delivered more planes and received more orders for the fifth consecutive year in a row. In the late 1990s, Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas.
It was an aircraft manufacturer which made commercial planes like the MD-11 and MD-80. as well as space and military aircraft. There is a belief that the focus at Boeing has shifted since this merger with McDonnell Douglas to profitability as opposed to engineering excellence.
I think one of the big indicators of that was moving the corporate headquarters away from any of the big manufacturing sites. After the 1997 merger, Boeing moved its corporate headquarters after 85 years in Seattle to Chicago and more recently to Arlington, Virginia. 27 years later, experts and CEOs are still blaming that merger for the more recent issues. My assessment is, you know, this goes all the way back to the McDonnell Douglas merger, and it started a change in culture. If I were making recommendations to the company, I would say, yeah, sure, management should...
be located in the Puget Sound region, their biggest manufacturing site. And in fact, they should be sleeping on the factory floor at this point to get everything kind of back in order. Many of Boeing's other programs have also faced problems and they've faced cost overruns and they've faced quality control problems.
Profitability of course matters, but you're not going to be a profitable company if your customers don't believe you have the products they need to buy. And airlines have been opting for Airbus airplanes a lot more recently than Boeing. Boeing had already been under pressure to deliver more airplanes. It has a backlog of over 6000 total orders, and its leaders don't want to lose more market share to Airbus, which had a backlog of over 8000 planes at the end of 2023. You really only have two suppliers of large commercial airplanes and Airbus can't do it all. Will Boeing turn itself around?
Yeah, most certainly it will. It's going to take time, though. The eyes of the airline world are focused on Boeing and the FAA to make sure the 737 MAXs in production are produced without flaws.
Two months after the Alaska Airlines panel blew out, the National Transportation Safety Board chair criticized the company for its lack of cooperation in the MAX 9 probe. Boeing CEO has said that he's very serious about addressing the quality control problems and that it's their main priority right now, but customers are waiting for their airplanes. The 737 MAX 9s have returned to the skies, but the MAX 7 and 10 have yet to be certified and are years behind schedule, facing more rigorous testing requirements after the other MAX issues.
We've considered multiple manufacturers. We look at every aircraft. Other manufacturers are also having issues with aircraft delivery. And so Boeing having some production issues, we've enhanced our oversight of Boeing's production process.
In fact, we did that in 2022. And so that will continue. We might even bring it up a little bit. I'm disappointed. especially because Boeing is, they're not only our most important partner, they're one of the most important companies in the country. They're important to the United States.
Some of Boeing's best customers have expressed frustration at the company for the delays. We've heard from United Airlines, for example, saying, you know, stop building the MAX-10, a plane that isn't even certified yet, and build the ones that you can deliver to us and we can fly tomorrow. Southwest CEO, this is a CEO that runs an all-Boeing 737 airline, one of Boeing's best customers, saying that Boeing needs to become a better company.
That's very strong language coming from Southwest Airlines. Boeing has replaced the CEO of its commercial airplane business, Stan Deal, with Stephanie Pope, and will now begin a CEO search to replace outgoing CEO Dave Calhoun. I want somebody who knows how to handle a big...
Long, long cycle business like ours. It's not just the production of the airplane. It's the development of the next airplane. It'll be a $50 billion investment.
Despite significant management changes, experts still say it will be a long road for Boeing to get back to its once excellent reputation for safety over profits. Product life cycles can be decades. And you have an investor base that wants returns maybe this week, if not this quarter. And the two are misaligned.
So I think investors have to be willing to take a little backseat while the company is focusing on quality and compliance. You can't force the financials on top of everything else. So how long does it take?
My guess is it's going to take a while. What's a while? Probably a couple of years.
Boeing has a very proud history. I certainly hope to see Boeing regain the mojo, the magic that the company once had. Because to be very honest, if Boeing doesn't regain that focus, not only is Airbus going to, I think, win more orders. But Boeing becomes potentially weaker against other new entrants, such as Comac from China.
We are at the early stages of responding to, in my view, an overexercised supply chain and an overexercised Boeing factory. And we're going to calm it down. We're going to get ahead of all of the issues at the EU, the FAA, and way more importantly, our own people bring to our attention, and we'll get ahead of it. That will happen.
Boeing has spent years trying to get back on track after the fatal MAX 8 crashes, but the company has continued to face problems with production flaws and setbacks, including a door plug flying off a MAX 9 plane in midair after it took off from Portland, Oregon. Boeing's stock has fallen about 30 percent this year. The iconic company that once had a great reputation for safety is losing more and more market share to rival Airbus.
It's delivered more planes and received more orders for the fifth consecutive year. Some airlines are scaling back to growth plans due to delays in production. Airlines are desperate for new planes, but not knowing how many planes that you're going to have in your fleet by July, let's say, is a very complicated, frustrating thing for airline executives. My message is Boeing hasn't changed since the last time we talked. It's let's get your act together, deliver, first focus on the basics, get aircraft that are quality at first and foremost and safe.
The pressure on Boeing has led to a major leadership shakeup. And in an effort to correct manufacturing flaws and get production back on track, it announced its talks to buy fuselage maker Spirit Aerosystems, a company that Boeing spun off in 2005. So much of Boeing's manufacturing has become outsourced, and now Boeing is kind of backtracking and saying, OK, maybe that was a little bit too much, especially when it comes to the maker of their fuselages. Spirit Aerosystems, which is not to be confused with Spirit Airlines, is one of the biggest aerostructure companies in the world, with many locations around the globe.
It makes components for both commercial and military aircraft. including larger elements like fuselages and wings. Boeing is far and away their largest customer.
And Spirit provides 100% of the fuselages for the world's second most popular aircraft, the 737. Over the past few years, there have been a series of manufacturing flaws that have come out of the Spirit Aerosystems factory on big chunks of the fuselage that are going to Boeing. There's clearly a lot of manufacturing mishaps that are going on. Yeah.
So Boeing has to bring Spirit in-house to be better managed. The deal, if it closes, would be the biggest for Boeing since its merger with McDonnell Douglas in 1997. Spirit, however, also supplies parts to Airbus and other plane manufacturers, making the deal a little complex. We're going to be patient, let them get their job done with their respective customers, and then we'll get a deal done. The Boeing company has been around for over 100 years.
It helped usher in the jet age and brought commercial flight to the world. They designed and built some of the most successful commercial aircraft in aviation history. And I think it's important to remember that in 15 years, Boeing went from the first version of the Boeing 707 to the Boeing 747 jumbo jet. Boeing got started in Seattle and expanded over the last century.
It started building planes in Kansas during World War II. including the infamous B-29 bomber at its subsidiary company, Sturman Aircraft. This would later become the Boeing Wichita division.
Airplanes are made of a very global supply chain these days. And if you go back in time 30 or 40 years ago, that wasn't the case. Most of the airplane was made in one location, and there were parts of it that were sourced from outside suppliers, let's say the systems and the engines.
But by and large, the structure of the aircraft was mostly made in-house by the aircraft manufacturers. And that really began to change in the 1980s and 1990s. In 1997, Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas.
It was an aircraft manufacturer which made commercial planes like the MD-11 and MD-80, as well as space and military aircraft. There is a belief that the focus at Boeing has shifted since this merger with McDonnell Douglas to profitability. as opposed to engineering excellence. The McDonnell team was more cost-concerned than the Boeing team.
A good relevant current example is Spirit Aerosystems. You know, why was Spirit cut loose? Well, one, at the time, the company was focused on Rona, return on net assets. That was a McDonnell-Douglas thing. Two, at the time, many companies, including Boeing, Aerospace and Defense World, fancied themselves as system integrators, not fabricators.
Boeing at the time looked at its manufacturing division in Wichita, Kansas, where they made the fuselage and said, you know, if we spun this out into a separate standalone company, we could take a lot of assets off our books, a lot of work in process off our books, and we could drive up our return on invested capital. And this standalone company in turn could also provide services and components to other manufacturers and give us a better value. Boeing sold the Wichita unit in 2005 for $1.5 billion to private equity firm Onyx Corporation, forming Spirit Aerosystems. Today, Spirit Aerosystems is still headquartered in Wichita. In 2023, 70 percent of the revenue that Spirit Aerosystems generated came from work from Boeing.
Boeing says it can build one of its 737 aircraft in just nine days, but many of those parts arrive already built. like the fuselage, which gets sent via train from Kansas. Boeing does a quick final assembly versus building the plane from start to finish in one place.
After Spirit was spun off from Boeing, it began making parts for other manufacturers, including its main rival Airbus. It manufactures the wings for the Airbus 220 at its facility in Northern Ireland and parts of the A350 fuselage in North Carolina. Boeing spun off its Wichita unit as Spirit Aerosystems to improve profitability. That puts the financial squeeze on Spirit Aerosystems to build the fuselages for the lowest possible cost.
But clearly this has come with... some intangible cost in terms of quality control. When aerostructures is not a highly profitable part of the supply chain, it's probably a 5% to 7% margin business. In 2011, suppliers were paid in 30 days after they delivered their finished product. If you look at where things are today, it's 120 days later.
And that is extremely hard. For the working capital, Spirit has faced some issues since the 2005 spinoff. It's been fined by OSHA for workplace violations, including exposure to hazardous material and some deaths.
Spirit has also struggled financially since 2019. Its stock is down over 60 percent the last four years due to the pandemic and production halt of the 737 MAX. Spirit derives the lion's share of its profits and revenue from these 737 fuselages. When you shut down your production line, as we did in the 737 MAX incident is absolutely devastating to Spirit and to Spirit's suppliers.
In 2022, Boeing reported defects in fuselages provided by Spirit. In 2023, the company reported some bulkheads had misdrilled holes in them, further delaying production. In addition, the global supply chain still faces challenges post-pandemic.
Labor prices have escalated. Spirit agreed to a 40 percent wage increase with its employees over a four-year period. And raw material prices started going up and lead times went up. Spirit replaced its CEO last fall with Pat Shanahan, a former Boeing employee.
Pat Shanahan, a Boeing veteran who really helped fix the 787 program, has a lot of credibility in Seattle. When he went in to become the new CEO at Spirit, I think he saw things and was able to speak reality to the Boeing leadership in a way that perhaps the prior leadership wasn't. Boeing and Spirit Aerosystems both just confirming an earlier report that they are, in fact, in merger talks.
Boeing spent years trying to restore its reputation after two crashes of its best-selling 737 MAX planes in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people. The more recent crisis, where a door panel flew off because bolts were missing, has brought even sharper focus over its manufacturing process. The fuselage that Spirit delivered was the door that blew out was removed at Boeing.
The plane was removed. reinstalled without the fasteners. So not Spirit's fault, that was Boeing's fault.
But I think, you know, before that, there have been significant issues with quality defects with the Spirit fuselages. The current talk about exploring, you know, bringing Spirit back under the wing, that's probably a good decision ultimately, right? Because it gives you control over an important piece of your supply chain. Boeing was trying to ramp up production of its best-selling jet, but since the Alaska Airlines door incident, it has sharply slowed it down. After an audit of Boeing's production line by the FAA found dozens of issues.
The FAA has taken a very hard line with Boeing. They said, Boeing, you cannot increase your production of the 737 MAX until we are satisfied with your production practices. Boeing makes most of its money in commercial aircraft today off the 737. So where Boeing goes with the production rates on the 737 has a huge impact on the overall profitability of Boeing commercial aircraft and of Boeing.
ink as well. The Federal Aviation Administration gave Boeing 90 days to come up with a quality control plan, which is up at the end of May. So we took all of the inspection processes and the people doing those inspections, and then the people who are doing the rework embedded in these positions in the factory, and we moved it to Wichita. From that day forward, which was really March 1st, we will only accept, they will only ship a conforming fuselage.
Which means it comes in this door in near perfect shape and then it moves through this factory in a much reduced cycle. Spirit Aerosystems reported on its Q1 2024 earnings call that it's seen a 15 percent improvement in quality after implementing new inspection protocols. But the company just announced it will have to lay off up to 450 workers at its Wichita location because of the slowdown in delivery rates.
So one of the things that's complex about Boeing buying back Spirit, its fuselage maker, is that the company also does a lot of work for Airbus, which is Boeing's main rival. So they're going to have to divide up some of that work, and it does get very complex into how they're going to do that. In light of the situation today where Boeing has potentially the interest to take over Spirit, we could also imagine that some of the work packages could be, again, find their way to Airbus and we take them over.
but that, quite frankly, is a discussion in very, very early stages. The deal isn't done yet, but I think what we see likely happening... is that Boeing will take over those parts of the business most closely associated with Boeing, you know, headlined by the Wichita operation. But then those elements of the business that support Airbus, we think are likely either to be sold to Airbus or to a third party entity. Boeing just agreed to give Spirit an advance payment of $425 million to help the fuselage maker keep up production demand until a possible deal can be reached.
We are working diligently to get it done, and I'm determined to get that done. Spirit, in working with its other customers, are taking actions to ensure that all of those relationships are what they need to be. And everything they do in that regard is better for us, and then we'll get a deal done. I believe in Q2.
It's more than likely. Boeing's first quarter was better than analysts expected, but the company spent close to $4 billion in cash as it tries to stabilize its production output. And in order to make more profits, it needs to make more planes. We are already beginning to see signs of more predictable and reduced cycle times in our factory as a result of these enhanced quality control standards. While near-term delivery shortfalls hurt, the long-term benefits from a synchronized supply chain will be substantial.
The good news is that Boeing is poised to really start generating significant cash flow, free cash flow, if it gets its act together. It really needs the right leadership. The company is also under pressure from the Department of Justice. It said Boeing violated a 2021 settlement that protected it from criminal charges tied to the fatal 737 MAX crashes, opening the company up to a potential U.S. prosecution.
Boeing has denied those claims. Whether or not this deal happens, Boeing has a long road ahead to get back to higher production rates. We really only have two suppliers of large commercial airplanes, and Airbus can't do it all.
Will Boeing turn itself around? Yeah, most certainly it will. It's going to take time, though.
Airline customers are desperate for new planes. Travel demand has continued to be very strong coming out of the pandemic. We've heard from major Boeing customers, Southwest, United, Alaska, Express Frustration at the company.
You know, they want them to get quality right. and they know that that's not a tomorrow thing.