Hungary’s Political Landscape and International Relations

Overview

• Hungary celebrated its national birthday with an unusual invitation list by Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
• Invited guests included heads of Turkey, Serbia, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Qatar, resembling an informal summit of like-minded illiberal leaders.
• Notable absence of EU leaders like Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz.

Orban’s Ideological Foreign Policy

• Orban’s foreign policy is ideologically driven, preferring alliances with authoritarian leaders.
• “Eastern Opening Strategy”: Blends pragmatism with shared ideological disdain for European liberal democracy.
• Focuses on countries like Turkey, Russia, and China as reliable partners, especially for energy.

EU and NATO Relations

• Hungary remains a member of EU and NATO but often diverges from their collective stances.
• Refusal to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession alongside Turkey.
  • Used as leverage against the EU for funding.
• Refusal to reduce Russian gas imports post-Ukraine invasion, signing new deals with Russia.
• Transparency International ranks Hungary low in perceived corruption within the EU.

Domestic Policies and Issues

• Anti-immigration stance, including a razor-wire fence in 2015 and release of human smugglers.
• Criticism of migration policy as ‘weaponization’ akin to Belarus.
• Domestic challenges include inflation and an under-reformed education system.
  • Public protests against laws affecting teacher protections.

Orban’s Popularity and Governance Style

• Fourth elected term; Fidesz party maintains power with a strong state ideology.
• Orban perceived as understanding Hungarian psyche, promoting a freedom fighter narrative.

International Perception and Strategy

• Viewed as obstructive to EU and NATO aims.
• Orban believes in leveraging Hungary's position between declining West and opportunities in the East.
• EU withholding funds due to concerns over Hungarian rule of law and civil rights.
• EU and NATO face internal challenges and potential reforms in decision-making processes.

Connection to American Conservatives

• Orban resonates with certain American conservatives who admire his cultural policies.
• Hosted CPAC in Budapest, fostering exchange of conservative ideas.

Conclusion

• Orban’s foreign policy seen as a tool to expose EU and NATO divisions.
• Despite confrontational stances, Hungary does not intend to leave the EU or NATO.
• Potential EU and NATO reforms in response to Hungary's obstructive actions.