Coding a Popular Gambling Strategy (Martingale) on Stake

Introduction

Martingale Strategy: A common and easily understandable betting strategy.
Objective: Test the strategy manually on Stake, then code it to run for 30 minutes initially, and eventually let it run overnight.
Key Questions: Is this strategy profitable? Why do casinos allow it? Can basic math indicate its long-term viability?

Game of Choice: Dice on Stake (a 50/50 game).
Betting Mechanics: Bet an amount, e.g., $1. If the outcome is below 50, you lose; above 50, you win more than the bet amount.
Probability: Winning chance is 49.5%, ensuring the casino claims a slight edge.

Basic Idea: Double your bet after each loss until you win.
- Start with a base amount (e.g., $1).
- If you lose, double the bet (e.g., $2, then $4, $8, etc.) until a win recoups all losses and gains a profit equivalent to the initial bet.
- Roulette Example: Betting on red or black with near 50% win probability.
Execution: Ensure you have enough liquidity to sustain multiple losses.

Simulate Manually:
- Start with 0.1 units.
- Double up the bet after each loss.
- Reset to base amount upon winning.
- Ensure you have sufficient liquidity, considering probabilities of consecutive losses.
Coding the Strategy:
- GraphQL Requests: Capture the requests Stake sends while betting.
- cURL Command: Convert captured requests into a cURL command for automation.
- Node.js Implementation: Use Axios library to send requests programmatically.
  - Separate sensitive data like cookies for security.
  - Implement the strategy algorithm to automate doubling up bets after each loss.
- Error Handling: Identify limitations such as request identification (e.g., changing identifiers in subsequent requests).
Running the Code:
- Test the betting logic in a loop to simulate uninterrupted play.
- Implement error handling to exit upon excessive consecutive losses.
- Ensure code is ready to handle real stakes and iterate upon initial results.

Short-Term Results: In an initial 30-minute trial, the balance increased by $10 (from $120 to $130).
Overnight Trial: After 7 hours, the balance dropped to $95 due to a sequence of 12 losses, demonstrating the inherent risk.
Key Learnings:
- Short-Run Feasibility: Can appear profitable for short durations; long runs are risky.
- Liquidity Concerns: Requires sufficient capital to sustain potential consecutive losses.
- Risk vs. Reward: Minor gains versus the possibility of significant losses.
- Probability of Losses: Even a small probability of multiple consecutive losses can lead to substantial losses over many games.

Gambling Risks: The Martingale strategy, though seemingly effective short-term, poses considerable long-term risks due to the potential for consecutive losses wiping out all profits and more.
Final Advice: Avoid long-term gambling. If attempting this strategy, cash out early to minimize potential losses.

This project serves as a cautionary tale against gambling and highlights the importance of understanding the mathematical principles beneath perceived 'winning' strategies.