Presentation on Economic Outlook - Jason Meyer and Peter Hall

Introduction

• Jason Meyer: CEO of Engen
• Peter Hall: Former Economist for EDC, now runs his own consulting firm
• Salesforce: Major sponsor, supports the manufacturing industry in Canada
• Purpose: Economic insight focusing on global and Canadian manufacturing sector

Salesforce's Role in Manufacturing

• Modernizes commercial operations
• Reduces revenue leakage
• Transforms service experience
• Strengthens channel partnerships
• Platform built for agility, helps prove new business models
• Visit salesforce.com for more information

Introduction to Peter Hall

• Former EDC economist
• Runs a consulting firm providing bespoke advice
• Insight on global and Canadian economy
• Notable past discussions on inflation and supply chain issues

Major Themes Covered by Peter Hall

1. Global Economic Chaos and Forecasting Challenges

   • Global financial crisis, pandemic, war in Ukraine
   • Debates on whether forecasting is a lost art
   • Models being broken in many areas
   • Impact of technology and communication on globalization

2. Globalization’s Impact on Business Cycles

   • Traditional 10-year cycles potentially stretched to 20 years
   • Technology, communication, and logistics improvements influence this
   • Inclusion of emerging markets extends growth cycles
   • Exaggerated growth and corrections

3. Pandemic and Economic Recovery

   • V-shaped recovery observed in retail sales and unemployment rates
   • Initial policy-induced recession with fast recovery
   • Pent-up demand from supply chain disruptions and housing deficits

4. Sources of Inflation

   • Unexpected inflation despite pandemic recovery
   • Pre-pandemic and mid-pandemic pent-up demand
   • Supply chain disruptions causing shortages
   • Prolonged period of underinvestment

5. Central Banks and Inflation Management

   • Risk of inflation becoming a general condition
   • Central banks’ interest rate increases to control inflation
   • Debate on supply vs. demand driven inflation policies

6. Canada’s Unique Economic Challenges

   • Housing market bubble
   • High consumer debt levels
   • Potential domestic economic weaknesses
   • Strong export opportunities

Strategic Recommendations for Businesses

• Investment in Capacity: Key to overcoming capital and labor shortages
• Focus on Export Markets: Leveraging global growth to offset domestic weaknesses
• Utilizing Technology: Importance of automation and tech solutions in the face of labor shortages
• Dynamic Growth Strategy: Adapting to shifting economic conditions, particularly in emerging markets

Q&A Highlights

• Regulatory and Fiscal Policy: Coordination needed to avoid conflicting policies influencing inflation
• Investment Strategy: Focus on companies with strong export orientation and ongoing international expansion
• Regional Economic Shifts: Potential for increased regional manufacturing despite global dependencies

Final Thoughts

• Emphasized the need for intelligent, coordinated policy decisions
• Optimism about global export opportunities despite domestic challenges
• Continued observation needed to navigate economic fluctuations

Conclusion

• Engagement and insightful contribution from Peter Hall on economic trends and strategies
• Special thanks to Salesforce for support
• Recording to be sent to attendees

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