Notes on Lecture: Computer Simulations and Democracy

Introduction

• Computer simulations are prevalent in everyday life (e.g., navigation, weather reports).
• The potential of simulations to address democratic crises in the U.S. and globally.
• Argument: Simulations can help preserve democracy amid rapid change (technological, demographic, climate).

Speaker Background

• Speaker: Computational neuroscientist accustomed to handling complex data.
• Research focus: Understanding the brain and its functions through data simplification and modeling.

Understanding Democracy through Simulations

• Neuronal Behavior Analogy:
  • Neurons firing in synchrony can lead to seizures.
  • Similar patterns in human behavior can lead to political unrest and insurrection.
• Computational analysis can explain and potentially prevent political instability.

Functions of Democracy

1. Representativeness: Democracy should represent all citizens.
2. Responsiveness: Citizens should have the power to influence leadership.
3. Deliberation: Elected representatives must engage in problem-solving dialogue.

Current Democratic Paradox

• Increasing number of independent voters dissatisfied with politics.
• Survey indicates:
  • Nearly half of U.S. voters identify as independents, surpassing both Democrats and Republicans.
  • Independents exhibit polarization and reliable voting patterns with major parties.

Simulation Illustration of Voting Dynamics

• Single-Dimension Model:
  • Voter and politician distribution resembles two separated mountains (liberals vs conservatives).
  • Introduction of a third mountain (independents) complicates the voting landscape.
• Instability:
  • Mathematical analysis suggests that movement in a single dimension can lead to political stampedes (e.g., electing extreme leaders).

Solutions to Preserve Democracy

1. Avoiding Third Party Formation:
   • Introducing a third party can inadvertently help the opposing party (spoiler effect).
   • Example simulation shows how a third party reduces chances for the party it aligns with.
2. Redistricting:
   • Gerrymandering undermines fair representation.
   • Computational tools can identify unfair districting plans.
   • Statistical analysis can help establish proper district lines.
3. Changing Primary Rules:
   • Example: Alaska's all-party primary system with ranked choice voting.
   • Encourages collaboration among candidates from different parties.
   • Can increase the number of competitive districts.

Further Reform Ideas

• Other potential reforms include:
  • Eliminating the electoral college.
  • Implementing approval voting.
  • Campaign finance reform.
• Importance of choosing the right reforms based on simulation outcomes.

Future Directions and Advocacy

• Role of Simulations:
  • Simulations can predict long-term effects of reforms across different states and demographics.
• Call to Action:
  • Advocate for reforms through local initiatives.
  • Encourage scientists to engage in designing and analyzing reform systems.

Conclusion

• Democracy is an experiment that requires inclusive representation.
• Hope that mathematics and simulations can assist in improving democratic processes.
• Closing quote from Theodore Roosevelt: "Democracy is a national experiment; essential for rules to represent all of us."