Transcript for:
Stock Trading Analysis and Strategies

guys this is going to add a level of great sophistication to these scenarios where oh whoa this thing went further than I thought it was going to go to be able to determine what's the likelihood maximum of where what's the maximum this is likely to fall back two levels down maybe less but maximum two levels that is very high sophistication you can always find outliers you can always find exceptions we're talking about what happens eight times out of every 10 seven times out of every 10 now 10 times out of every 10 because that doesn't exist it's I always draw it right here but it's not right there it's really there you understand and two is sort of down here and three is down there here all right position one position two position three okay so don't think that it has to be snug right up under that Fab 4 to be in the best position it's a general Zone all right so this opens in the general Zone this stock obviously moves up first as you can see by the tail and I actually like when we're in the general Zone and it moves up because this sets up for a hidden RBI I mean a hidden uh 180 when that green disappears right there if the green disappears boom I'm in I'm in on The Disappearance of the green right there boom and our stock does whale out see it wails up drop boom boom okay so we wail out now what I want to point out about this what I want to point out is this this move up okay so just like I told you we're going to take we're going to take the drop now I'll give you the choice you can take it from the tail or take it from here let's take it from here because that's where the drop started right this the drop down didn't start from here the drop down started from there so I like to take it from where the stock started its downward descent boom now you're going to cut that in half just like I told you right third and third okay okay see the bounce now you know you can go for the Gusto your bounce was the acceptable bounce yes so Amed says but you said I'm using from the close that's on the Gap scenario all right that's on the Gap scenario this is a gap scenario too but the Gap to position two scenario here is your color change and you can play that boom but here would be your entry on the elimination of green all right let's say Max stop profit take should count this as one two three all right one off bring stop to break even boom all right enter put the one back on here bring stop to Pivot boom profit take profit take out whale complete all right nice trade there nice trade in the Starbucks there and look at your positions guys look at your positions position one position two and position three you wailed out all the way to all through your positions okay good nice neat concise beautiful concept go to the beach that's right time to go to the beach have a beach go to the park do some walking all right now let's take this move up all right let's take this move up up okay let's pretend this is one fluid move as you can see I want you to Pretend This is one fluid move as you can see you broke through the half and you broke through all of your levels okay now the odds of coming back down there are very low all right now you're not going to get this what is the likelihood two levels one two all right sometimes it'll just be one and sometimes it'll just be two but you'll likely get maximum two two levels down that's that's the likelihood maximum two levels down you might get one level down maximum two levels down boom usually finished do you have this concept the two Lev concept that's what I want you to understand if you get this move that's too much your maximum is here most of the time all right two left the two level down or the twole up concept if it's on the other side guys this is going to add a level of great sophistication to these scenarios where oh whoa this thing went further than I thought it was going to go to be able to determine what's the likelihood maximum of where what's the maximum this is likely to fall back two levels down maybe less but maximum two levels that is very high sophistication all right now nothing is 100% you can you can always find outliers all right you can always find outliers you can always find exceptions we're talking about what happens eight times out of every 10 seven times out of every 10 not 10 times out of every 10 because that doesn't exist all right so that's the two-l concept now let's go to Nvidia if we can and here's the Gap scenario so remember guys Starbucks was the it it gapped but it kind of opened in the best position all right now we're going to go to the other scenario where it opens here doesn't open there it opens it gaps through the one position okay that's that's the Nvidia now let's grab the let's grab our two so so it is relatively tight here nice we Gap here okay little bit lower so what do we want to do yeah you know what so we want to take this and we want is to close here we want to draw this in that's where it closed yesterday you want to draw this in and we want to do our levels let's do more got it yeah I would say position two from from this Zone to here I mean it's not here right but you're more zon is too there okay so now this bounce stays in our levels beautiful so now if it okay it stayed in my levels there is good whale potential here still even though the Gap has eaten up a portion of my potential gain and so remember guys this Gap has eaten up this portion yes of your potential you want to see if there's more potential after that and this is one of the ways to determine it how far does the counter Gap move go and this is one of the keys to determine do I have potential for this since the Gap is already used up portion of my gain portion of my potential gain so that's the key thing that's why this is so important what we're covering your trade has full potential here but if it gaps there it's used up a portion of your potential so the question is do I have this portion and the key to that is that so let me give you an idea of a scalp because I still think it's an interesting question so guys um something drops like this boom boom boom boom right into the 200 but this is all red then you get this if you take this long off the 200 do it here let's say you take that signal what's the odds that you go to a new high are the odds good or low high or low good low odds so what kind of trade is this scalp there you go you know it before the trade right right yeah now let's take this wait a minute let's take this here's the first bar of the morning growing right off the the 200 period moving average you do an anticipatory entry in the bar boom stop here is this a scalp no you're going for the possibility of a whale right see you know it in advance that's a trade not a scalp so in general I would scalp when I'm playing against odds of a bigger move but I still have good odds of a little move so usually a scalp is counter something so remember when I was telling you guys that for instance take a look at this right you've dropped here hard here's the here is if here's a 100% bounce that's very low that's going to happen one time out of [Music] 10 here's a 75 that's going to happen maybe not even but let's be generous two times out of 10 but something interesting happens halfway you go to six times out of 10 but what do you think happens here yes you go to 8 to nine times out of 10 so the scalp odds here is high you see it's actually in between here so this the scalp odds here in between there is very high but up here it's very low so this if I played this this would be a scout right now that's different from this shouldn't be a scalp it's just starting an elephant has four feet right but this is the first foot in why would you scalp and the Elephant has three more feet to step in the waters so if the elephant put his first foot in today he's got three more feet to step in you don't scalp that this Trader got out of apple too soon so I'll show you this Traer got into this bar and put his stop here which is a grave error the the appropriate stop is here and if you can't get under that bar you have to go up to wherever your maximum loss is and you have to make sure that your max maximum loss wherever that amount is if it's not there or below you move it up find your maximum loss and when you find it you have to determine whether or not it's in the bottom third of the bar if it's not in the bottom third of the bar this trade is not yours your your stop has to either be under the bar or in the bottom third of the bar you got it so by making the stop here the dude is asking to be taken out now the major problem is that this not being part of our program he didn't really quite yet understand that when you have Power Bars the top third of the bar is the strongest support the up to a half is the second strongest but the top third is the most powerful so you'll often find this guys check this out you'll often find fat green bars drops will come back to the top third and bounce you'll find fat red bars moves back up will come to the top bottom third and drop bottom third of power bar and that top third of green bars that's very powerful this also counts for multiple bar moves sometimes you don't get just one bar you get a series of bars in a runup this can be looked at as one giant move where the top third is the strongest area of support this has nothing to do with the time of day this is power power in the top and bottom third with its green power has the biggest form of support at the top of it red Power has the biggest form of resistance at the bottom of it this power can be in the form of one bar it can be in the form of a multiple bar run up or multiple bar run down this is a multiple bar move right now you see how it's hanging out there in the top third more or less okay that's very bullish this is the strong EST area of support and then up to a half there's also this area of support right under the third so under the third to a half and then the top third you have the top third right it's important to understand how powerful that top and bottom third is because it can lead to a lot of trading um opportunities right when you rally one bar powerful bar or even a multiple bar run up I want you to split always split the run up or the run down in Reverse I want you to do three lines mentally in your mind the top third line the bottom third line and then I want you to do the 50% line so you've got the one3 you got the one3 here and you got the 1/2 here now what this does is it sets up so it sets up a c so the categories outside of the move are below and above but let's talk about the categories within the move so when you pull back from this P from this rally to the upside when you pull back to the in the third the odds of going to here very high okay when you go to this level it's it's still good not as high but it's good now as you drop to this level now the odds of a new high are very have gotten very smaller so what you do is you anticipate two level bounds one two see and fail if you get to here you anticipate two level bounce one two and fail you understand if you get to here one two this is my TW level rebound concept once you break seriously break the halfway mark let's do it on the downside and then you tell me if you get this all right so here's a drop boom and from this drop you're going to 1/3 2/3 halfway this starts to bounce where is this likely going new low we get up into this range where is this likely going new low maybe not as deep but new low but if we get past here odds are you're not going to make a new low so now one two you see if you get up here one two most people get into trouble by asking their stock to do what is probab probabilistically can't say that word which is highly unprobable