In an impressive show of strength, Poland has set its military on display during a huge parade in Warsaw. Display of military might in Warsaw. has paraded its military hardware on the streets of Warsaw.
Poland's military is flexing its arsenal in the largest parade in decades. It's a significant display of how billions have been spent on new equipment since 2014. This year's parade is the largest since the Cold War. We are modernizing our armed forces.
This year we will allocate over 4% of GDP on defense. This time around, Poland is taking no chances. This isn't just flexing muscles though.
The country wants to get the biggest army in the European Union, bigger than the armies of Germany, France, or Italy. Poland has one of the most ambitious military strategies in the continent, as it wants to double the size of its armed forces in just two years. The nation's military personnel is planned to grow from 150,000 to 300,000 in 2025. Just for comparison, That's more than double the size of the UK's armed forces.
The government in Warsaw also plans an unprecedented rise in military spending, going from 2.4% of GDP towards 5% of GDP eventually. That's the highest military spending in the entire NATO alliance, speaking relative to GDP. The target range for NATO countries is only 2%. The 5% figure even beats Poland's NATO ally, the United States. Right now, Washington spends around 3.5% of GDP on its military.
Even though Poland's economy is a lot smaller than the U.S., this rise in defensive spending still gives it billions of dollars in additional funding. The Polish government is using this money to purchase tons of military equipment to get the largest land army in Europe. With deals like this, Poland is trying to get one of the largest armies in Europe in terms of military hardware.
And everyone who knows a bit of Polish history understands why. Poland doesn't want to get wrecked by other European countries ever again. Looking at the actions of the government in Warsaw, it seems like it's preparing for the worst-case scenario, a war with Russia.
When Putin invaded Ukraine, it became clear that peace in Eastern Europe is far from guaranteed. Right now, tensions are rising at the border between Belarus and Poland, with Polish and Belarusian troops preparing for the worst. When Putin sent Wagner troops to Belarus, Poland decided to move 10,000 troops to the border due to mounting concerns.
concerns. After Bogosian's death, Weiner isn't that big a concern anymore, but the tensions at the Belarusian border haven't gone away. Recently, Russia has moved short-range nuclear weapons to Belarus, further escalating the situation.
Putin's dictator buddy, Lukashenko, is glad to help Russia in its conflict with the West, which has become a real threat to Warsaw. However, Poland isn't sitting idly and letting this happen. With its military buildup, Warsaw is trying to protect itself from its historical rival in the Kremlin. However, this military buildup goes far beyond that. Right now, Poland is on the path to become one of the strongest nations in Europe.
Ranging from military might, economic growth to a strong network of alliances, Poland has it all. In this video, We'll talk about Poland's attempt to combat Russia with an unprecedented military build-up. We'll also go over the major geopolitical implications of this development.
You see, Poland is using the military build-up to become one of the regional leaders of Europe. Before we dive into this video, consider hitting the like button down below. It helps the channel a lot, because videos like this don't get far without your support. The algorithm can be ruthless at times, especially when we cover military topics like this. Ultimately, you guys allowed us to make these videos.
Thanks. September the 1st, 1939. Germany invades Poland. Within days, German forces are advancing on Warsaw. The nightmare of a new order.
Hitler's Luftwaffe bombs cities, killing thousands of civilians. German planes destroy the Polish Air Force. Fear spreads in families. Within two weeks, Warsaw is surrounded. The modern history of Poland is filled with wars and catastrophes.
This is all indirectly caused by Poland's geography. Frankly, the country's geography is quite terrible when you look at national security aspects. Poland has no natural defenses, as it's located right at the heart of the European plain. The area is vulnerable to both the east and the west, which can clearly be seen in history. Repeatedly, Poland has been the stepping stone for any power expanding across the European plain.
For the entire 19th century, Poland didn't even exist. The previous Polish state fell. partly because of its hardly defendable geography.
The territory became occupied by the Prussians in the west, the Russians in the east, and the Habsburg monarchy in the south. When Europe later descended into World War I, it was disastrous for the Poles. After Germany and Russia declared war, the front line fell right into their territory. Many Poles had to fight in the war, as 450,000 Poles died and 1 million were wounded.
In 1916, around 2 million people from Poland were fighting in the armies of Germany, Austria, or Russia. After the war ended, much of the country was destroyed because of intense warfare. The occupied territories of Poland were left in ruin. Indirectly, this was due to Poland's unfortunate geography.
Because of its central and unprotected position on the map, the Polish territories were heavily targeted. The only positive side of the war was that Poland regained its independence shortly after. Seemingly, this was good news for the country.
Poland didn't have to be involved in these terrible wars anymore, right? Well, no. In 1939, disaster struck the country once again. Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union invaded Poland from two sides. Poland lost the unfair fight against these military giants with awful consequences.
Both the East and West had to suffer from totalitarian military occupations, with Hitler and Stalin ruling over the country. We don't think you can get worse leaders than that. On top of that, Poland became a front line just like in World War I. The two dictators decided to fight each other, and Poland was the unfortunate country right in between.
World War II left an even bigger scar on the country than the previous one, which it remembers to this day. An estimated 6 million Poles died during the war, which is 20% of the pre-war population. Half of the victims were Polish Jews, who were prosecuted by the Nazis.
After this horrible episode of history, it didn't get a whole lot better for Poland. The country became ruled by communists. in what is known as the Polish People's Republic. For decades, Warsaw was a satellite for Moscow and the USSR. You know, with the gulags and Stalin's left-wing totalitarianism.
It was only in 1989 that Poland regained its independence when the Soviet Union fell. The last 30 years have been a very rare time in history where Poland has been relatively prosperous and secure. It has joined the European Union and the NATO alliance, which has given the country a break from all the chaos.
Nevertheless, This Polish history is crucial to understand. The government in Warsaw knows fully well that peace and prosperity is far from ordinary. From a historical perspective, it makes perfect sense to try and bolster the Polish defenses.
If Poland wants to defend itself as a vulnerable country on the European plain, it needs a strong military. The first steps in this direction were already made in 2012, when the Polish government released a 10-year technical modernization plan. This would improve the armed forces of Poland, as $15 billion worth of weapon purchases were planned.
But in 2022, this historical notion of needing a strong military has become as relevant as ever. With the invasion of Ukraine, it has become clear that Europe isn't as safe as everyone thought it was. Ukraine, which is a neighbor of Poland, has experienced the threat from Moscow firsthand.
With Putin's attack, many see the revival of Russian imperialism. As you guys know, YouTube has a habit of restricting our videos. And sometimes it's not even YouTube's fault.
It's the brands that run ads on YouTube. They don't want their ads next to controversial videos. So they tell YouTube to restrict controversial videos like ours that cover geopolitics.
That means sometimes we have to forego covering certain news topics because we know YouTube will restrict that video. But often, those controversial topics are important news that you guys ought to know about. That's why we launched Global Recaps, our own geopolitics newsletter. Every day.
We send an email directly to your inbox covering the world's most important news, and there's no third party censoring any topic. If it's important, it'll be in the email so you can all know about it. These are short and simple emails that take five minutes to read.
News topics covered in the emails are unbiased, uncensored, and completely free. So sign up now by going to globalrecaps.com or using the link in the description and become more knowledgeable about the world you live in. With Putin's attack, many see the revival of Russian imperialism. This raised alarm bells in Warsaw because Russian imperialism has hurt Poland many times in history. For Warsaw, the threat from Moscow is right next to its border.
Poland already shares a border with Belarus, which is regarded as a puppet state for Putin. Southeast of Poland, Russia is trying to creep up on the Ukrainian border, although unsuccessfully. And we shouldn't forget the Kaliningrad Exclav, which is a small chunk of Russia directly bordering Poland in the north.
This area is highly militarized. and it's sometimes called Russia's fortress on the Baltic Sea. From all of these sides, Poland is threatened by Russia, but the nation itself isn't at risk, right? As Poland is part of NATO, Russia wouldn't dare to attack the country's territory.
Because of Article 5 of NATO, a Russian attack would get Moscow at war with the entire alliance, including the United States. An attack on one member state is treated as an attack on everyone. While this is completely true, it doesn't take away all of the fear in Poland.
The country will be one of the first targets in case of a full-on war, even when it's unlikely to happen. The Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania is the only way for NATO to access the Baltic states. This gap is one of the weakest points of the alliance. If Putin decides to attack NATO, he will probably go for such a choke point first.
Now, it seems irrational for Russia to attack NATO, but Warsaw can't rely on this assumption. After all, you don't want to bet your national security on what Putin decides to do. When Russia decides to attack Poland despite the counterattack, it will do a lot of damage before NATO can intervene.
The westernmost parts of Belarus are only a three-hour drive away from Warsaw. In the scenario that Russian and Belarusian troops attack, the capital city is immediately at risk. The northern cities close to the Kaliningrad Enclave could also be attacked in an instant, and once NATO forces enter Poland, the initial front line would be in Polish territory. Because of the many lessons from history, Poland doesn't want this to happen ever again. Oh yeah, we should also mention what happened last time when Poland was attacked.
The United Kingdom and France promised to defend Poland, just before World War II started. When Germany and Russia invaded, however, they were unable to help the country until it was too late. Arguably, NATO's support for Poland nowadays is a lot more powerful and trustworthy.
When we look at this map of NATO members in Europe, it's obvious that the group is stronger than just France and the UK. If the group fights together with the United States, Russia stands little to no chance. But still, there's a sense of mistrust in Poland after the World War II trauma.
The country doesn't want to be over-reliant on others for national defense, so it wants to be able to defend itself when necessary. Because of this, we're going to have to fight for our own interests. Warsaw has made the decision to create a strong army to resist a possible Russian attack.
Even though it is an unlikely scenario, a strong Polish military would guarantee that Russian forces won't come too far. After all, it's better to stop them at the borders than to wait for NATO's support. Now, all of this geopolitical turmoil wouldn't have started without the war in Ukraine.
Poland is firmly in line with the Ukrainian cause, and it has a lot of sympathy for its neighboring country. Since the war started a year ago, The Polish government and civil society have helped out millions of refugees. But Poland is also closely allied with Ukraine in a military sense. A big reason for this is that a Ukrainian loss would mean a security hazard for Poland itself.
This strategic interest shows when it comes to the military support the country has given. It was the first country to deliver leopard tanks to Ukraine, while other countries like Germany were hesitant at first. In general, Poland is one of the NATO members least reluctant to support Ukraine militarily.
In the first months of the war, Poland was the second biggest donor of military aid to Ukraine, only surpassed by the United States. This is quite the achievement of a country of only 38 million people, and it still gives some of the biggest support on a per capita basis. As a share of GDP, Poland's level of support is only beaten by the Baltic states.
0.68% of Poland's gross domestic product is going to Ukraine, mostly in the form of military aid. But these numbers also say a lot about the support of other European countries. There are many nations in Europe that have bigger populations and economies than Poland, but the amount of support they give isn't proportional.
Countries like France and Germany, with economies multiple times bigger than Poland, give much less to Ukraine, relatively speaking. The UK gives about 0.33% of GDP, Germany 0.27%, and France only 0.05%. Of course, these countries have the freedom to decide what they want to give to the war effort.
But from Poland's perspective, this is very telling. Other European countries don't take Russia as seriously as it does. This fits a long trend of Western Europe not doing much for its national defense. They're not that scared of Russia because of NATO Article 5. When it comes to a war, the United States will do much of the work for them.
And frankly, countries in Western Europe face less risks apart from Russian nuclear bombs. This has led to countries like Germany or the United Kingdom outsourcing a part of their national security. Recently, A US general has warned the British Army that it's no longer a top-level fighting force.
The UK, which once had the best navy in the world, is currently unable to fight a war by itself. After an assessment, it was revealed that the country would run out of ammunition within a few days of war, and if it were bombarded with the same kind of drones and missiles as Ukraine, the UK wouldn't be able to properly defend itself. This is because much of the country's defense systems and armor have become outdated and obsolete.
On top of that, the number of British military personnel is in a free fall. The number of military personnel has been slashed by more than 50% since 1990. The slump in personnel is even worse in Germany and France, also has a drop of about 40%. Germans'military, aka the Bundeswehr, is also in a very bad shape. And that's according to the chief of the German army.
On the day that Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, he said that the Bundeswehr, the army that I'm allowed to lead, is more or less depleted. In a high-intensity combat, the Bundeswehr's stock would run out in a few hours or days. This decline in German military strength is very obvious, especially with hardware. In 1989, the Bundeswehr used to have 5,000 battle tanks. It now only has 300. It used to have 620 fighter jets.
This amount has now reduced to 230. used to have 2,100 armed personnel carriers back then. Three decades later, it's down to 700. You get the point. The German army has become a lot weaker than it was just 30 years ago. For years now, Germany hasn't met NATO's requirement to spend 2% of GDP on the military.
When you don't spend enough on the military well, it won't be as capable as you want it to be. France suffers from the same problems, although to a lesser extent, France's ammunition supplies are at their lowest point ever, according to a recent report. it wouldn't last more than a few weeks of high-intensity combat because of a lack of ammunition.
This is still more than Britain or Germany, but it's not a figure to be proud of. Now, back to Poland. With the major European nations losing their military prowess, Europe's security is fragile.
Other European powers have become weaker over the years, which makes NATO's defense mostly dependent on the United States. Of course, the United States has the best military in the world, at least when we look at defense spending. Putting all your eggs in one basket is never a good idea. When there's no NATO member in Europe who is able to fight a war, that is a huge weakness. And currently, it doesn't look like countries in Western Europe fit the bill for securing Europe's safety.
The West of Europe takes Russia less seriously than the East, which is obvious when you look at defense spending and support to Ukraine. Poland is trying to compensate for the security hazard by building the largest army in Europe. If this goal is achieved, Poland would be able to protect Europe without outside support. Poland is one of the fastest rising business destinations in the world.
Joe Biden touching down in Poland. The Three Seas Initiative is a project that was created. The initiative is so named because it links 12 European Union countries located between three different seas.
The Baltic Sea to the north, the Black Sea to the southeast and the Adriatic Sea to the southwest. It is a movement created in 2015 to carry out projects in three areas, infrastructure, energy and telecommunications. So, Poland is taking on the burden of European security because other countries have weakened. This seems to be an entirely selfless move, but this is not the case. On the contrary, Poland will actually gain a lot from this strategy.
When Poland surpasses the UK, Germany and France in military might, the country will get an important geopolitical status. This will give Poland a lot of benefits, and it fits in a wire trend. Believe it or not, Poland is on the way to become a major global power. This is true in a lot of aspects. including the economic side of international affairs.
Poland is projected to overtake the UK in GDP per capita by 2030, which is pretty remarkable. For decades, Eastern European countries have been poorer than their Western European counterparts. After decades-long Soviet rule, the east of Europe was left impoverished and dysfunctional.
But this situation seems to be changing, as countries like Poland are growing their economy at incredible rates. The Polish economy has been growing consecutively for 28 years, an achievement only surpassed by Australia in modern history. In fact, Poland was the only country in the EU that didn't suffer from the 2008 economic crisis. Between 1992 and 2019, economic growth in the country averaged 4.2% annually.
As economists say, compound interest can do miracles. It certainly did in Poland. From 1990 onwards, the country's GDP has increased sevenfold. In terms of total GDP change over the last 30 years, China was the only country who has beaten Poland. The country experienced an economic miracle of some sorts, and the Polish economy was entirely transformed.
Its economy changed from one of the worst performing in Europe into one of the world's bigger and more prosperous ones. Already, Poland has the 22nd biggest economy in the world, and the country is continuing to climb up the ranks. There are many reasons for this success, one of them being Poland's EU membership.
In 2004, the government in Warsaw decided to join the European Union, which had a huge economic upside. Since then, Businesses in Poland could trade freely within the European Union. Currently, the EU has a combined nominal GDP of 17 trillion dollars.
So that's a big deal. Private business is booming in Poland, partly because it has access to this huge EU market. On top of that, Poland receives a lot of investments from other countries in the European Union.
The policy of the organization is that the richer members give money to the poorer ones to invest in their growth. On this chart, you can see that Germany is the biggest contributor and that Poland is the biggest beneficiary. Since 2004, Poland has received 232 billion euros from the EU budget.
The country is using these funds to build infrastructure like roads or railways, amongst other things. But apart from the outside support, domestic factors have also played a role in Poland's success. Poland has a highly skilled workforce, which has resulted in success in sectors such as IT.
About 8% of Poland's GDP comes from the IT sector. And the country currently houses 60,000 technology companies. Global giants such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Intel have all established bases in Poland. This fits in a wider... trend of global businesses moving to the nation because the talent available there but apart from its EU membership and talent pool the biggest reason for Poland success is this arguably the last 30 years were the most peaceful in the last 400 years of Polish history Poland is catching up to the rest of Europe because it finally has the peace and independence that others have had for longer if this time of peace continues Poland can build itself up to be one of the major players in Europe.
To illustrate this, let's go back 400 years in time. In the Middle Ages, Poland was home to a powerful and successful state called the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. At its peak in the late 16th and early 17th century, the federation spanned much of of Eastern Europe.
At times, the state was even the largest in Europe. For a brief period, the Federation actually conquered Moscow, which hasn't been done in too often in history. Eventually, the Commonwealth disintegrated, but the idea of this powerful state in Eastern Europe never disappeared.
After World War I, the idea of an intermarium was born in Poland. Translated as Between the Seas, it would be a federation spanning from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic Sea. This state would be able to counterbalance Germany and the West and Russia in the east, and it would give Eastern Europe a time of peace and prosperity. This idea never came to be, because it devised between Eastern European states. Poland fought a war with both Lithuania and Ukraine, which made an alliance in the region impossible.
On top of that, the Soviets began to push back on this idea. Learning from past experience, Moscow didn't want a revival of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The Polish Civil War from 1919 to 1921 made this very clear.
The Polish side won the war, but they made some big changes. concessions in the peace treaty. Poland would give up on the intermarium concept and recognize Ukraine and Belarus as Soviet proxy states, and we all know what happened next.
Because there was no strong federation in Eastern Europe, Poland and its neighboring nations were crushed during World War II, but the idea of an intermarium wasn't gone at all. In fact, it still exists today. Poland is trying to reunite Eastern Europe to finally make the Intermarium idea into reality. This could provide a new security block, which could guarantee the peace and prosperity of the region. The Polish president, Andrzej Zduda, is leading the process, as he co-founded the Three Seas Initiative in 2016. The initiative is centered between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Sea, clearly taking inspiration from the Intermarium idea.
The project is supposed to increase cooperation between 12 EU member states. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania. and Bulgaria.
The non-EU member Ukraine is a partner participant in the program as the de facto 13th member. The main focus of the project is infrastructure and energy, but it also has some big geopolitical motives. You see, Poland is trying to establish a leading role in the area.
With the Three Seas Initiative, Poland is challenging the traditional EU leaders by creating its own group within the organization. Countries like Germany or France don't like this, as it would challenge their authority within the EU. But for Poland...
becoming a regional leader has a lot of benefits. Poland would lead the wave of economic development in the east and gain a lot of status internationally. Now, Poland's ambitious military plans fit right into its regional agenda. Building the largest military in Europe seems like a little over the top for a country of only 38 million people, but it makes perfect sense when you're trying to become a regional leader. With the largest army in Europe, Poland isn't only able to protect itself, but also its allies.
So when Poland gets a huge military, It incentivizes other countries in Eastern Europe to become close allies. This would make Poland's dream of an intermarium very possible, as it could become a country with a lot of status. So, Poland's military plans aren't only to protect itself against a possible attack.
They're also for Poland to become a regional leader with all the benefits attached to it. For example, the relationship between Poland and the United States has vastly improved in the last year. This is because Washington now recognizes the strategic importance of the country. Previously, the Polish government was under scrutiny because of controversial judicial changes.
But because of the war in Ukraine, this has all been brushed over. Because of its military buildup and its leadership role in the region, Poland has now become an indispensable NATO member. For the United States, Poland is crucial for defending NATO's eastern flank.
On top of that, Washington kind of likes the idea of a strong Polish military. The U.S. doesn't want to be the only one defending Europe from Russia. With something like a Cold War going between the U.S. and China, the United States needs to focus elsewhere. The Polish military buildup allows this to happen because it can fill the power vacuum.
It's clear that a strategic alliance between Poland and the United States has been formed. With Joe Biden visiting the country twice within 12 months, the United States has recently established a permanent base in Poland, which shows that the country is becoming more and more developed. a hub for NATO's defenses. On top of that, the U.S. has pledged to make Poland one of the most capable armies in Europe.
It will provide arms deals for the most advanced weapon systems in the world, including the Patriot missile system or HIMARS rocket launchers. The U.S. strategy document has highlighted this agenda, saying that America will support Poland to become a top-tier NATO ally and the principal regional leader. With help from Washington, Poland can become a military powerhouse. It can provide local military security to Eastern Europe, gaining influence in the region and internationally.
Poland has multiple reasons for the recent military buildup. But what will this increase in military strength actually look like? First of all, Poland's military spending will rise to a figure of about $30 billion annually.
Currently, the country is spending 4% of GDP on the military. According to some reports, this could rise to 5% over the coming years. This won't get Poland in the top 10 of military spenders globally. But this spending will beat countries like Israel or Canada. However, we have to keep in mind that Poland is still one of the fastest growing economies in Europe.
Economists expect... the Polish GDP to surpass $1 trillion in 2028. This means that the nation's defense spending could rise to $50 billion by the end of the decade. When it sticks to the 5% goal, in theory, the country could catch up with Germany or France in the near future. Now, all of this money will be spent for one purpose, protecting Eastern Europe against Russia.
Luckily for Poland, it already has the playbook on how to do this. From the war in Ukraine, the West has learned a lot about how modern warfare with Russia looks. One of the biggest lessons from the conflict is that numbers matter.
The more ammunition, tanks, and soldiers you have, the bigger your chances of success. This is because conflicts like the war in Ukraine Ukraine are fought for months or even years on end. It's not only about getting the most high tech equipment and weaponry, although that can give you a nice advantage. Instead, it's about getting enough hardware and personnel to last for a while.
That's why Poland is focusing very much on the numbers. It wants a huge amount of military personnel and large inventories of artillery and tanks. In 2022 alone, the Polish military got 14,000 new recruits. This is part of the new military recruitment campaign called Become a Soldier of Poland. even though the country doesn't have a very big population.
The government wants to recruit 150,000 people. This is going to double the size of the military over the coming years and it will make Poland a capable force for prolonged conflicts. The other number that the Polish military focuses on is the amount of firepower. One of the reasons that Ukraine has resisted the Russian attack for so long is the huge amount of firepower it now has.
The country has received a lot of artillery, armored vehicles and tanks from NATO which allows Ukraine to defend against the Russian army. against Russian troops. Based on visual evidence, Russia has lost more than 2,000 tanks, 2,000 infantry vehicles, and 2,500 trucks and jeeps.
The fact that Ukraine could inflict these massive losses is a big reason for Russia failing to advance. Looking at Ukraine's arsenal, there are many resources it has used to make this happen. One of these resources is the HIMARS long-range artillery system. It has helped Ukraine destroy a lot of Russian positions and armor. Poland took note of this.
Over the years, it wants to buy nearly 500 HIMAR artillery systems from the United States. That's an insane amount of artillery, as the United States doesn't even have that many. 500 is about the global supply of HIMARS before the war. The systems are very powerful, as they have a range of about 300 kilometers. One in the middle of Poland can reach most of the 700 kilometer wide country, so imagine 500 of those.
On top of that, Warsaw is going to buy 300 K239 Chunmoo systems. They are the South Korean equivalents of of the HIMARS system, providing the army with even more long-range artillery firepower. When it comes to self-propelled artillery, the plans are just as ambitious.
The Polish-made Krab Howitzer has already proven itself in Ukraine, and Warsaw is ramping up its production of the artillery piece. With current orders, the number of Krabs in the military will rise to 170 pieces, but according to previous security documents, this number could rise to 500 once the production capability is there. The Krab Howitzer has been highly effective in the war in Europe, and it is expected Ukraine, which Zelensky has personally discussed with his Polish colleague Duda. To further solidify the arsenal of howitzers, Poland's army will also acquire tons of South Korean K9A1s. The plan is to buy about 700 of them, which will also consist of the pollinized version named K9PL.
In 2026, the manufacturing of K9PL howitzers will start in Poland as part of a technology transfer with Korea. When all of these plans get realized, Warsaw will get one of the most formidable arsenals of artillery in the world. This is no coincidence. In a potential war with Russia, artillery will be one of the most decisive factors.
Going into the war in Ukraine, Russia thought that its immense arsenal of artillery would guarantee it a swift victory. According to some estimates, the Russian army started with 5,000 howitzers and rocket launchers. In the first months of the conflict, Russian troops fired 60,000 artillery shells a day.
Due to a variety of reasons, however, this offensive didn't work out. Russia's tactics were outdated, it quickly faced shell shortages, and its soldiers weren't trained properly. But the biggest reason why the Russian artillery offensive didn't work was this. Ukraine had an effective counter-artillery defensive. In the conflict, artillery-on-artillery combat has been one of the decisive factors.
When Russia invaded, Ukraine's artillery was one of the biggest reasons why Kiev wasn't captured. Ukraine began the war with an estimated 1,800 artillery pieces, which put it at a disadvantage against Russia on paper. But because of a more effective campaign, Ukraine was able to destroy much of the Russian artillery using its own smaller arsenal.
It has a superior fire control system, which makes Ukrainian attacks more efficient. This success in artillery-on-artillery combat is one of the driving forces behind Ukrainian advances. Nevertheless, maintaining firepower is one of the biggest bottlenecks for the Ukrainian army. Ukraine uses more artillery shells in a few days than the United States produces in a month.
This is a huge problem, because both defenses and offenses rely on massive amounts of firepower. Experts now say that the war in Ukraine has become an artillery war because of the sheer volume of its use. Once again, artillery has proven itself as the king of battle.
Because of this example from Ukraine, it makes sense that Poland purchased hundreds of artillery systems. But of course, these heavy weapons aren't the only components of the war. of the military build-up. Usually, artillery is meant to support the infantry during warfare, so the actual iron fist of the Polish military will consist of something else, tanks and combat vehicles. Currently, Poland ranks fourth in NATO regarding the number of tanks, possessing around 600 of them according to Statista.
More than 200 of them are the highly prized Leopard tanks. Before the war in Ukraine, the Polish tank arsenal was even larger with 1,000 of them in total. The number is now much smaller, as Poland has given hundreds of tanks to Ukraine. However, the number of tanks in Poland isn't going to shrink. The country is buying more than 350 Abrams tanks, becoming the first US ally in Europe to get this American-made tank.
Poland has also ordered 1,000 Korean K2 tanks, of which 820 will be produced domestically as part of a technology transfer. These Polonized versions are called the K2PL, and they will be adapted to fit the flat terrain in Poland. Additionally, The country will buy 1,400 Borusk infantry fighting vehicles from its domestic defense industry.
This is one of the largest deals in the history of Polish defense manufacturing. In a smaller deal, Poland will also purchase 200 or more domestically produced Rozemak combat vehicles. The Ukrainian military is also very interested in this vehicle, buying 100 of them.
This fits in a larger push by Kiev to acquire an armored fleet, as it's acquiring many tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Ukraine wants to regain the territories it lost to Russia, and it will need armored vehicles in order to do so. Many military commentators thought that the era of the tank was over, because a huge number of Russian tanks fell prey to anti-tank missiles and artillery.
However, if you want to counterattack on flat terrain, armored vehicles are still necessary. The tactics of using tanks have certainly changed, because there are now effective ways to combat them. But abolishing the tank is completely out of the question, at least in Ukraine's point of view.
Recently, the country started asking for tanks from its allies, with the offensive struggling to take off. Ukraine only wants more of them. Poland, with flat terrain similar to Ukraine, is following its neighbors'thinking.
Armored vehicles are essential for the Polish military, because it can't break enemy lines without them. So, Poland wants a huge number of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, to get the strongest infantry among European NATO members. Although the military strategy in Warsaw is very much focused around the army, other defense components also play a role. To defend its airspace, Poland has bought 32 F-35A fighter jets from the United States. They are going to replace the older MIG-29 aircraft in Poland that have less capabilities than the fifth generation F-35A.
Poland already has 48 F-16 fighter jets, which are multi-purpose aircraft with a great track record. Additionally, Poland is buying 48 Korean F-A-50 fighter jets. These light combat aircraft can provide low-cost support for air-to-air and air-to-surface fighting. Poland will produce its own version of the jet, called the F-A-50PL, which will have improved capabilities.
To further strengthen its air force, Poland has purchased nearly 100 Apache attack helicopters. and more than 50 multi-purpose helicopters from Augusta Westland. All of these aircrafts are crucial for Poland to defend and support ground forces in a possible conflict.
In the Ukrainian war, one of the major issues facing the defenders is the lack of air superiority. Ground troops continually face threats from fighter jets and helicopters, and Ukraine's own outdated Soviet aircraft aren't enough to defend against them. Kiev has recently received F-16 fighter jets from NATO, which could help to tackle this issue.
Poland certainly took notes on the Ukrainian air superiority problem. By getting some of the best fighter jets and helicopters in the world, Warsaw hopes to maintain air superiority at all times. And this isn't the only thing Poland took notes on from the Ukraine war. It has also become clear that the military needs drones in modern warfare.
Poland isn't behind in this regard, as it was the first NATO country to buy Bayraktar drones from Turkey. It ordered 24 of them for surveillance, reconnaissance, and striking capabilities. Additionally, Poland considers buying MQ-9 Reaper drones. They can provide crucial intelligence and perform lethal strikes.
The military is also buying various smaller drones, like the FlyEye, Orlik or Gladius UAVs. They seem harmless, but in the war in Ukraine, they have proven to be deadly. These small drones are perfect for locating enemy positions, which can result in a targeted and successful attack. Last but not least, Poland is also acquiring advanced air defense systems. The biggest deal is a purchase of US Patriot missile defense systems worth up to $15 billion.
It includes 48 Pac-3 Patriot launchers and 644 Pac-3 MSC missiles, which can target aircraft and all kinds of missiles. This version is the best one currently on the market, with a minimal range of 35 kilometers and an altitude of up to 40 kilometers. The huge 48-piece purchase will be able to cover much of the Polish airspace against any incoming threat. And it's obvious why Warsaw bought this system.
The U.S. Patriot systems have an amazing track record in Ukraine. There are many instances where Russian aircraft and missiles have been successfully shot down using Patriot missiles. With this recent purchase, Russian fighter jets and helicopters are going to have a hard time crossing the Polish border.
And these systems could also protect Polish cities against any incoming missile threats. To complement the medium-range air defense systems, the country has also bought several hundred common anti-air modular missiles. This is the largest short-range air defense purchase among European NATO members ever.
Continuing its buying spree, Poland also purchased hundreds of homemade Pioran manpads with several thousand missiles. These man-portable air defense systems have been praised by Ukraine as it has shot down several fighter jets and helicopters in the war. Using all kinds of air defenses, Poland hopes to maintain air superiority at all times. In the military build-up, there are also smaller acquisitions for the Navy. Poland has begun the construction of its first frigate, and it eventually wants three of them.
The main purpose of this is to defend the Polish coast against any incoming attacks. But a possible conflict with Russia would mostly be fought on land, just like in Ukraine. That's why the bigger acquisitions are done for the army. The air force comes in second, and the navy third.
Now, it's clear that all of these huge purchases will cost the country billions of dollars. However, the government in Warsaw doesn't want all of his money flowing out of the country. A much smarter move is building your own domestic defense industry, as that gives economic and political benefits as well.
It would create jobs, grow the economy, and make Poland much more important within NATO. That's why the Polish military modernization plan also includes domestic weapon manufacturers. Poland is already the 10th largest arms exporter in the world, but it still imports more military goods than it exports.
In comparison, the German and French defense industries are still way bigger. Poland wants to have the largest army in Europe. It will need to improve its own defense industry to make it sustainable.
In a surprising move, Poland is looking at South Korea to achieve this goal. Last year, President Duda signed a $13.7 billion arms deal with South Korea. This was the largest deal in the history of the South Korean defense industry.
Many of the weapons Poland is using for its military buildup come from South Korean companies, including tanks, fighter jets, and fighting vehicles. Recently, Poland's military has been using its military to build up its own military vehicles. Talks were held to further expand the cooperation between the two countries, but the big question is why?
Poland's neighbor Germany has a way bigger defense industry than South Korea. However, there's a big difference between the deals with Korea and the arms deals with other countries. The relationship between Warsaw and the SIL is mutually beneficial in a lot of ways. First of all, South Korea will transfer its technology and allow Poland to manufacture the weapons by itself.
This will help to grow Poland's domestic defense companies. which offers many economic and political benefits. But what's in it for South Korea to transfer this technology? It doesn't really make economic sense to give your military technology away, because it helps your competition.
However, this move... South Korea helps it gain market share in the European market. You might not expect it at first, but South Korea is trying to become one of the biggest arms dealers in the world. The country is already highly militarized due to its North Korean rival, and it has developed a sizable domestic defense industry because of this. Now, the country wants to profit from this industry by selling its products abroad.
Transferring technology to Poland is a way for South Korea to enter the growing European defense market as some sort of sales pitch. Once South Korean companies have proven themselves in Poland, other countries in the region could also be interested in doing business with them. On top of that, Poland could become the manufacturing base for South Korean companies in Europe. The export director of the state-owned Polish Armaments Group wants to work together with South Korea in the future.
According to the director, we can both create the synergy and use our experiences to conquer the European markets. South Korea wants to compete with the American, French and German defense industries. something that's hard to do on its own.
But if South Korea partners up with Poland, it has the opportunity to gain a significant market share. A recent tweet by the Polish defense minister confirms this strategic partnership. We want to develop technology better. We look at this cooperation in the long term.
The technology transfer isn't just a short-term sales pitch, but it is the beginning of a long-term partnership. With this long-term support from South Korea, Poland is trying to get the largest army in Europe. It hopes that through these immense army upgrades, it will be able to defend itself against Russian imperialism.
Even though a war seems unlikely, the threat from the East is still worrying the Polish government due to past experience. Learning from the war in Ukraine, Poland now knows how to fight a Russian invasion. By buying billions of dollars worth of military equipment, Warsaw tries to guarantee national security. But we can't rule out ulterior motives. A strong army will also give Poland the geopolitical status to become a regional leader.
From becoming the strongest US ally in Europe to revitalizing the intermarium idea, Poland is starting to reap the benefits. With the Three Seas Initiative, the country is vying for power within the eastern part of the European Union. This is backed up by strong economic growth in Poland, giving it a strong basis to stand on.
And when Warsaw manages to unite the region, the upside could be huge. Eastern Europe could get the security it has long been lacking, and the economic success of Poland could be repeated in the entire region. The last 30 years, which have been exceptional, historically speaking, could continue long into the future. The sad truth is, Italy is dying. Italy's national birth rate has fallen to its lowest level on record.
In Sicily, demographers warn that the shrinking population could drag the country into an unprecedented economic crisis. And its economy is collapsing with it. That is their debt to GDP level currently sitting at around 150 percent, the second highest in the eurozone. Now the European Commission has warned Italy it will launch disciplinary steps over the country's growing debt. Yes, I said that third time in a decade.
Italy's economy has slipped into recession. Over 24 percent of Italy's population is over 65, and this number is only rising. We're not the first one to mention this. Italy's very own health minister is also worrying about this.
She's quoted saying that Italy is a dying country. So what's the problem? What's killing Italy?
It has to do with two words fertility rates. This refers to the number of babies each woman has on average. The fertility rate in Italy is one of the lowest in the world with a number of 1.24 births per woman. To maintain a stable population you need a fertility rate of about 2.1.
Because of this fact Italy's number of 1.24 is making its population very unstable. So unstable, in fact, that a population collapse is not only coming, it's inevitable. For years now, Italy has had fewer births than deaths, slowly chipping away at its total population number. In 2022, the country recorded a record low number of births. It had less than 400,000 newborns, with a total population of about 59 million people.
Imagine that. For years now, The country's population has been falling by around 200,000 every year. This huge population decline began back in 2015, and the trend is only worsening.
Keep in mind that a population decline is inevitable when birth rates stay low. Every new generation could just become smaller and smaller, to the point of no return. Elon Musk is worried about this possibility, saying that Italy will have no people if these trends continue.
This is no exaggeration, as it is happening in some places already. Around 6,000 rural villages in the country have been abandoned, and 15,000 could soon follow. The rapidly aging population is the main cause of this, as once thriving villages have become empty ghost towns.
And this isn't the only effect of the aging population, or even the biggest one. Demographics are one of the most important statistics for a country. Because they play a role in almost every system in society The economy politics and the welfare system are all closely intertwined with demographics That's why a demographic collapse is a terrible thing because it causes all kinds of systems to crumble These problems won't just remain in nursing homes But they will plague the entire society if these unstable birth rates continue Italy is in for a time of nationwide unrest and economic downturn. Let's go over how this dire situation formed in the first place We'll also look at all the problems that will emerge in Italy due to the ongoing demographic crisis.
But before we continue with the video, here's a quick reminder to hit the like button down below. Topics like these are important to cover because they inform you about the fate of entire nations. But we can only make videos about these topics with your support, because otherwise the YouTube algorithm will suppress them.
If you want to support the channel, please like the video and leave a comment down below. Without further ado, let's go into the basics. Right now, the country's demographic collapse is going on in full swing because of extremely low fertility rates. But just 50 years ago, the situation in Italy was a whole lot different.
In the 1970s, the fertility rate was about 2.5, meaning that the population was steadily growing. But still, a rate of 2.5 isn't that much according to historical Italian standards. A hundred years earlier, Italy had a fertility rate of about 5, double the number of 1970. However... This doesn't mean that the average family had five children.
One of the causes for this high statistic was the sad reality of infant mortality. In Italy of the 1800, around 40% of newborns didn't make it past the age of five. But in spite of this, the population was still growing throughout the 19th century. The entire phenomena of an aging population just didn't exist at the time. The question is why?
What has changed over the last 100 years that made fertility rates plummet? First of all, the incentives for having children changed. Italy was a mostly agricultural society in the 19th century, although the country was slowly industrializing. This meant that for most Italians, having kids was a no-brainer. If you didn't have kids as a farmer, there was nobody to take care of you once you got older.
The centralized state as we know it now didn't exist back then, so there were no pensions and no social security. Having children was necessary for your future self. On top of that, there was actually a financial incentive to get kids during that time. There was no law banning child labor and it was common practice all over Europe. Children worked in the fields or in the workshops of their families, providing a source of labor and income for their parents.
Children were actually a net positive for their parents'wallets. During the early days of the Industrial Revolution, parents even sent their children to work in factories. This terrible practice gave poor families a desperately needed source of income. Apart from these social and economic incentives, there was also cultural and religious factors making the birth rates so high. A hundred years ago, Having a large family was very much respected in Italian culture.
Raising and being part of a large family give people a certain social status. The family culture is one of the reasons why the Italian mafia is so infamous. With families fighting entire wars, this just shows you how serious family is in Italian culture. Another influence was the Catholic Church, which had a lot of power within the society back then. It says that large families are a blessing from God, and that it's virtuous to raise children.
This moved people in their beliefs. resulting in higher birth rates. But all of these reasons to have kids came crumbling down during the 20th century.
Social, economic, cultural or religious, everything has changed. This could be seen in the numbers over the course of a hundred years. Fertility rates were slashed by about 70%.
Now, how did this happen? First of all, having children isn't a no-brainer like it was previously in history. Right now, Italy has a free or low-cost health care system, a state pension system, and various other social security benefits. Basically, the need to have children to take care of you is gone. Italy's government takes care of people financially and physically, which reduces the need for children in the first place.
In some ways, these government policies have caused the decline in birth rates. However, the government isn't the only one to blame for the problem. In the modern world, there's also no financial incentive anymore for having kids.
Child labor has been abolished, which everybody can agree on is a good thing. But on top of this, the financial burden of having children has also dramatically increased. From age 0 to 18, the average cost for the parents is now about 175,000 euros in Italy. This varies between higher income and lower income families, with the latter spending less generally.
But still, that's about 10,000 euro a year on average for just one child. The average Italian makes about 30,000 euro a year, so good luck raising multiple kids. Having just one baby costs more than 30% of the average income.
So raising more is a luxury that most Italians don't have. Italians can't afford. Pope Francis has blamed this issue on savage free market conditions. He said that starting a family is a titanic effort, something that only the rich can afford.
Looking at the numbers, he's got a point. If it's unaffordable for the average couple to have two children, there's arguably something wrong with the economy. So the bad side of the Italian economic system also plays a role in the issue. Another cause of the birth rate collapse is the giant cultural shift that has been taking place since the 1960s or so.
We're not going to get political here, but the culture shift definitely has an impact on birth rates worth mentioning. Starting a family was part of a traditional worldview, which was widespread a few hundred years ago. But with the rise of countercultures, these traditional ideals have become less and less important in society. The rise of feminism is directly linked to lower fertility rates, which is proven in a majority of studies. Because of these movements, the traditional idea of having large families has been abandoned.
This happened all over the Western world, including in Italy. In some way, lower fertility rates have become the new cultural norm. And this isn't only a cultural shift, but also a religious one.
As it did in many European countries, religion has been a part of the modern world. has become less and less important in Italy. Traditionally, the country had a vast majority of Roman Catholics, and looking at the data, about 80% of Italians still call themselves Catholic in 2021. But when it comes to actual church attendance, well, the numbers are much lower. In 2020, about 12 million Italians went to church every week, which is around 20% of the population.
The vast majority of this group are elderly, and the percentages among newer generations are much lower. It's safe to say that the newer generations are less religious than hundred years ago. Now a religious population has a higher fertility rate on average according to scientific data.
As Italy is becoming more of a secular country, fertility rates have been dropping as a result. In short, it's clear that the demographic collapse doesn't have just one cause, but many. Government policy, economic incentives, and a cultural shift are just some of the major ones. But apart from having many causes, a birth rate decline will also have many effects.
150 percent the second highest in the year zone now the European Commission has warned Italy it will launch a Disciplinary steps over the country's growing debt third time in a decade Italy's economy has slipped into recession So we now understand the reasons behind the plummeting birth rates But it's even more interesting to look at what will happen in the future and doesn't look good in many regards Especially economically because of the demographic crisis Italy is heading for an economic collapse This might seem an overstatement, but sadly it's not the country The country already has one of the weakest economies in Europe when we look at the data. Italy is one of the few developed countries that barely grew its GDP over the last 20 years. When we look at GDP at purchasing power parity, which basically adjusts the number for inflation, the country's economy hasn't grown at all. Compared to France or the United Kingdom, it's clear that Italy is an underperformer. While other countries have grown their economy, Italy has gone into recessions three times over the last decade.
Right now, there are fears that it will enter a fourth. It's no exaggeration to say that the economy is growing at a third. that the country is having a hard time economically already.
Sadly enough, the demographic crisis will make this even worse. You see, birth rates are a key part of economic prosperity, and low rates can cause economic downturn. Just to be concise here, high birth rates aren't traditionally associated with economic success. Economic development usually goes hand-in-hand with lower birth rates, as countries with higher rates are mostly underdeveloped. But we have to make the difference between low birth rates and extremely low birth rates.
When they are so low that they cause a population to fall, to collapse, an economic downfall is inevitable. You don't have to be an economist to understand this. The fewer people there are, the fewer customers and workers for Italy's economy. If there are fewer people to buy and produce goods and services, you have an economic contraction. So this population decline will have a negative impact on Italy's GDP growth in the long run.
This sets Italy up to be an underperformer far into the future. In the short term, we'll also see another problem emerge, extreme labor shortages. If you do the math, a fertility rate of 1.2 means that every generation shrinks by about 40%. So the younger generations in Italy are shrinking at scary rates.
This is having a huge effect on the labor force because there are the people who are supposed to work jobs. According to a prominent Italian businessman, the upcoming labor shortage is a ticking time bomb. Soon, businesses will start to leave the country and because there just aren't enough people there.
When companies start leaving the country, an economic downturn is inevitable. And the problems go far beyond that. Because of a lack of people, the Italian government is struggling to get projects off the ground.
A recent example of this are the infrastructure projects that were paused this year, to get its economy back on its feet. Italy has recently received 191.5 billion euros from the EU. However, the infrastructure projects that were supposed to be funded with this money couldn't be started.
Because of labor shortages, Italy isn't even able to invest in its own economy. And no wonder. With current trends, 110,000 to 120,000 fewer students enter Italian classrooms each year. So the amount of people in Italy's schools will decline by 1 million within a decade.
This will cause problems both for companies and the government, because there just aren't enough people to fill the jobs. To make it even worse, Italy is also facing a huge brain drain. Around 50,000 young people leave the country every year to find better jobs elsewhere.. In France, Germany or Switzerland, salaries are way higher, meaning that young Italians would rather work abroad.
Many of the people who end up leaving are degree holders, which is a relatively small group in the country. Only 28% of Italians between 25 and 34 hold degrees, far below the European average of 41%. This means that the country has a very small pool of highly educated people, many of whom end up leaving. This lack of talent could help with Italy's economic demise, because the country's economic growth relies on it. When Italy doesn't have enough scientists, engineers, or software developers, it won't be able to compete in the modern economy.
There's already talk of a skills shortage in the country, with companies struggling to find qualified employees. This is just another reason for businesses to leave, and for Italy's economy to underperform. So the overall economics of the country don't look all too exciting.
On a government financial level, it's just the same. Italy's national debt burden is the fourth biggest in the world, with its government building more than 156% of the country's GDP in debts. The government has consistently run into budget deficits because it can't finance all of its expenses. With one of the biggest debt burdens in the world, investors fear that Italy is becoming a risky place to put money into. Italy wouldn't be the first country to run into problems with its debt, as it has already happened during the Eurozone crisis.
Starting in 2009, multiple EU countries were unable to repay their debts. These countries were Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Spain and Ireland. Because EU countries share the same currency, this crisis affected the entire Union as the Euro depreciated in value.
It also sparked controversy within the Union because the richer countries like Germany didn't want to bail out other member states. They said that the unsustainable debt levels weren't their problem. Countries like Greece were to blame for not being frugal enough, according to some EU members.
Because of these internal issues, the Eurozone crisis has threatened the very existence of the EU. When we look at it from a historical perspective, the debt situation in Italy is a ticking time bomb, and the demographic crisis might be the spark to ignite it. You see, the Italian government needs to do two things financially.
First of all, it needs to spend money on public services, infrastructure, defense, and whatnot. Things like these are essential to keep a country up and running. But in order to spend this money, the government needs to collect money through taxes. And this is where government in Italy is running into issues, because of its rapidly aging population.
A majority of the taxes come from economically productive people, which means people working jobs or running businesses. But this economically productive population is shrinking every year because of the low fertility rates. We've already discussed how every newer generation is shrinking by 40%. Inevitably, this means that tax revenue will go down when tax rates don't go up. To make matters even worse, government expenses will only rise in the upcoming decades.
The average life expectancy in Italy has risen significantly over the last decades. meaning that the older generations live longer. For the Italian government, this could be a huge problem.
Elderly people don't bring as much tax revenue, but they cost a lot in the form of healthcare and pensions. So this part of the population is a net negative for the national finances. And slowly but surely, the elderly part of the population is becoming bigger and bigger. According to this chart, the elderly share of the population is rising with 0.3% a year pretty consistently.
Because of these demographic trends, Italy is going to have lower tax revenue and higher government expenses. For a country already heavily indebted, this is not sustainable. The Italian government will be running at an even higher rate than Italy. Bigger budget deficit which can't continue without causing problems. It has two choices Italy can either dramatically cut government expenses or dramatically increase tax rates Oh, yeah, the third option is to keep printing money like it's doing now, but we all know how that one ends with financial disaster Of course, so the government is a difficult place financially to say the least Right at the center of all their financial problems is the country's pension system because of the way that it's organized This pension system is in a dire situation Like many other European nations, Italy has a centralized pay-as-you-go pension system.
In pay-as-you-go systems, the currently employed population pays for the retirement of the retired population. Basically, this means that the younger generation is supporting the older generation's retirement, but you can see where this goes sideways. In the near future, this type of system should collapse because of aging populations. For one, the sheer amount of pensions Italy has to pay is getting out of hand. The country spends about 70% of its GDP on pensions right now.
Yes, that's 17% of the entire economy. This figure will only get worse in the future because of the demographic collapse. First of all, the percentage of retirees in Italy's population is growing rapidly.
This means that Italy will need to pay more and more people in the future, relatively speaking. But on the other hand, the younger generation is rapidly shrinking. And this younger generation is the one who's supposed to pay for the retirement of the elderly. In short, the Italian retirement system is headed for collapse. To truly reveal how bad it is, let's look at the old age dependency ratio.
This statistic is the number of retirees for every person in the working population. Right now, Italy has about 38 elderly people for every 100 people in working age. But according to OECD projections, this will increase to more than 70 by 2050. This means that everyone within working age has to support about 70% of someone's pension, roughly speaking.
That equals to about 9,000 euros every year, or 30% of the average Italian's income. So Italians, within working, will have to pay about 30% of their income to fund someone else's retirement. This, of course, is not very feasible, as it would be a huge burden on the younger generation.
Politicians in Rome are scrambling for solutions to deal with this issue, with attempts to try and reform the retirement program. Over the long term, Italy may be able to abandon the pay-as-you-go pension system. When every generation pays for its own retirement, it would be much more stable.
But such a transition would take multiple decades, because the current older generation is still dependent on the younger one. The government in Italy can't leave retirees on their own, because they are still entitled to receive pensions from the government. That's why the pension reform is going to be slow and painful.
But the question is, if Italy has multiple decades left before its pension system collapses, the government in Rome is already facing huge budget deficits, and its national debt is also getting out of hand. If the country has to spend billions of euros extra on pensions, that could be the last straw. Early results from Italy's election show a clear victory for an alliance of right-wing party.
Some 31,000 or so migrants have arrived here in Italy on the sea route in the last couple of months of this year. Now compare that to 2021 and 2022, it's four times the number. So it's clear that Italy faces a lot of headwinds because of its demographic collapse.
This will of course have a big impact on politics in the country, as it will have to deal with economic and governmental problems. But one thing is clear, because Italy is a democracy, there will be one winner in the upcoming political debate, the elderly part of the population. The parties supporting old people will have the biggest political say in Italy, because they have the most votes.
Undoubtedly, this will create a lot of societal tension. Old people want to keep their retirement age low, receive their pensions and retain free healthcare. The problem is that Italy can hardly afford these things in the future. When the old generation wants to keep all the benefits, it comes at a great cost for the younger generation.
First of all, the government needs to increase tax rates to fund the welfare programs for the elderly. Increasing tax rates comes with huge economic costs, as businesses and people will leave the country. So high tax rates would hurt the economy and therefore the younger generation.
It will lead to an economic decline and worse living standards for the newer generations. If the government increases its taxes, it's basically sacrificing its economy for the welfare of the elderly. The only other way to keep the welfare programs running is government debt.
But there are limits to how much money Italy can lend, because of the risks associated with it. In the European Union, countries are officially only allowed to have 60% of their GDP in debt. This is to prevent something like the Eurozone crisis from ever happening again.
However, many countries don't listen to this rule. with Italy currently having 144% of its GDP in debt. This puts Italy in a tricky position. Other EU countries, especially Germany, don't want Italy to increase its obligations.
When Italy borrows billions of euros more, It will create tension with other EU countries, and even if the country manages to borrow more money, debt still carries a cost. Everyone knows that borrowed money is never free money. High government debt leads to a high interest payments and inflation. In 2022, Italy had to pay 4.4% of its GDP on the interest payouts for its debt, or close to $90 billion.
Increasing debt even more will make these interest payouts even bigger, to the point where it's unsustainable. On top of that, government debt also has a... tendency to cause inflation.
If the Italian government pumps billions of euros into its economy, the total supply of money increases. According to basic economic theory, an increase in supply makes the value go down. This is also known as inflation.
When the Italian government funds its welfare with debt, it would lead to economic unrest. The younger generation will suffer from this the most, because they need to pay the interest on the national debt. On top of that, inflation will cause the generation's living standards to go down. The retirees have less opportunity to live in a better life. of a problem with this because their pensions are inflation adjusted to some extent.
In short, the younger generation is in a bit of a pickle. It will carry the cost of the demographic collapse, but the generation has very little political say. To prevent it from getting completely out of hand, the government in Rome will have to make a difficult decision. It has to increase the retirement age, which is currently at 67. A higher retirement age decreases the expenses for government welfare and increases tax revenue from workers. The problem is, nobody likes a higher retirement age.
If Italy increases it to say 70 years old, mass protests and riots will follow. Just look at what happened in France just after Macron raised the retirement age there. But maybe it's better to have short term anger than long term political unrest.
If the retirement age isn't raised, high taxes, government debt and inflation could cause mass protests and riots just as well. This is a very difficult political problem, which definitely causes some headaches in Rome. Another political problem is an internal one.
You see Italy's decline isn't spread evenly. across the nation. The southern parts of the nation have it way worse than the northern parts in virtually all aspects.
It is said that Italy has the most geographically divided country in the European Union. The northern region of Lombardy has more than doubled the GDP per capita as the southern regions of Calabria or Sicily. Cities in the north have actually experienced growth over the last decades, but the economy in the south has been stagnant.
We can see this in the figures of regional growth. The southern region of Calabria has only grown its GDP by 1% from 2010 to 2019, but the northern region of Trentino Alto Adige has grown by 21% over the same time period. This north-south difference is true for many regions with some exceptions.
Right now, the north of Italy is relatively rich for EU standards, but the south relatively poor. There are also some regional differences when it comes to fertility rates. Trentino South Tyrol has a fertility rate of almost 1.6, whereas Sardinia has one just under 1.0.
Rates are fairly low throughout the country, but some areas have more acute problems than others. fertility rate of 1 makes every generation 50% smaller, which is an insane experiment to run. Now, the variation in fertility rates isn't completely a north to south divide.
Sicily for example has a fertility rate of about 1.4, the second biggest in Italy. But the difference is that the average generation of people in Italy is about 1.4. The difference is that the average generation of people in Italy is Inflammation and fertility rates aren't the main issue here. An even bigger factor is the mass migration of people in southern Italy. Almost 50% of the people leaving Italy come from the south, which means that the region's brain drain is disproportionately large.
Another form of migration is the internal migration from southern to northern Italy. This internal migration isn't a new phenomenon, as millions of Italians have moved up north since World War II. And no wonder, the salaries in the northern industrial cities are just way higher. The huge difference in GDP per capita is that the average person in Italy is only are the main reason for this. Over the years, this has led to the populations of southern cities like Naples or Palermo dropping by the thousands.
The problem is this. The biggest group of people who are leaving are in the age of 15 to 34. This means that the aging problem in southern cities is way worse than the prosperous northern cities. If Italy is facing shortages in its workforce, the southern cities are the first ones to get in trouble.
For the Italian government, this obviously brings some challenges. If the differences between the north and south continue to to grow, it will be hard to keep the country unified. With a huge divide in GDP per capita and economic success, Northern Italy and Southern Italy are just worlds apart.
The demographic collapse will make this even worse as Southern Italy will feel the blow even more acutely. Another hot topic in Italy's politics is immigration, which is also related to low fertility rates. Right now, about 9% of Italy's population are foreigners, representing around 5.2 million people. This number has grown significantly over the last 20 years.
because it was only 1.3 million in 2002. Most of Italy's immigrants come from poorer European countries, with 47.6% of immigrants coming from Europe. Interestingly enough, about 2 million of the immigrants in the country were born in Rome. Romania being the biggest group of foreigners in Italy but Northern Africa Asia and Latin America are also places where immigrants come from 22.3% of immigrants were born in Africa mainly in northern African nations like Morocco Egypt or Tunisia Immigration from Asian countries represents 22.6% of total immigration. The fastest growing foreign population in Italy are actually the Chinese, with a population of 330,000 people in Italy.
The other less substantial group of immigrants are Latin Americans. Americans, with about 7.5% of total immigration coming from the region. It's safe to say that Italy attracts people from all over the world. Of course, Italy is a beautiful country where many people would love to live, but the biggest reason for the immigration is actually the demographic collapse.
Because Italy just has too few people to work jobs, people from the outside come to fill in the gap. In a way, immigration is compensating for the extremely low birth rates, but it doesn't come at a low cost, because there is a lot of opposition in Italy against migration. The country now has a right-wing government led by Prime Minister Maloney, which is opposed to mass migration. Recently, Maloney has said that migration isn't the way to solve the demographic crisis.
If the birth rates continue to be as low as they are now, immigrants would make up an increasingly bigger part of the population. The right-wing government is afraid that this would change Italy's cultural identity and cause internal unrest. As many countries in Europe are shifting right, there's a good chance mass immigration will come to an end. Although some on the left see immigration as a solution for the population, the right-wing population collapse, it won't happen because of the political reality. To sum it all up, it's clear that Italy is in major trouble, because of financial, cultural and social changes, fertility rates have collapsed in the country.
This is going to cause extreme workforce shortages and an overall economic decline. The country is already an underperformer in Europe, something that could be worsened by the demographic collapse. Italy is starting to run into huge fiscal issues, with the government already loaded with trillions in debt.
The welfare state with its pensions is system is completely unaffordable because the population is rapidly aging. Because of these problems, Italy is also headed to a difficult time politically. The younger generations will have a hard time supporting the elderly, which causes friction in society. With the huge south to north regional divide, Italy will become more divided than ever, and the left and the right will be fighting on whether immigration is a good or bad thing. Because of the upcoming demographic, economic and political crisis, it's safe to say, Italy is dying.
This is modern. Modern day Turkey. The nation that was once called the sick man of Europe has grown to become more powerful than anyone would have ever thought.
That Turkey remains a close NATO ally and our military to military relationship remains strong. The previous administration made some very big mistakes with regard to Turkey and it was too bad. Our interest here is clear, which is in cementing Turkey as much as we can and the Turkish people with. with us in the transatlantic and NATO family.
I actually have a very nice job in Turkey. He's saying, please mention Turkey. We have assurance measures in Turkey, meaning that we have military presence, AWACS, increased naval presence, we'll have air policing and so on, to make sure that we are able to defend all allies against any aggression, of course, also including Turkey. The US economy dropped by 2.8% in 2020, while the United Kingdom's economy plummeted by 11%. and the European Union by 5.68%.
But the Turkish economy kept growing, a 1.9% increase from 2019. Geopolitically, Turkey's position is very interesting. It is perhaps one of the most controversial members of the NATO alliance. For a long time, it has blocked Sweden's NATO membership because of alleged support for a Kurdish separatist group. Turkey has been fighting the separatists through constant military attacks on northern Syria.
This is a difficult situation because the United States actually supports some Kurdish factions. Meanwhile, Turkey has problems with Greece over marine territory, raising the risks of a conflict between these two NATO members. In external affairs, the government in Ankara doesn't always choose NATO's side.
President Erdogan has called Israel a terror state, even though Europe and the US supports the Israelis. And interestingly, Turkey is one of the few NATO countries which hasn't placed sanctions on Russia. In short, Turkey doesn't always do what the other NATO members want it to do. But the country brings one thing to the table, which makes it a crucial member of the alliance. The country has been gaining geopolitical, military, and economic strength.
Through a network of strategic alliances, Turkey is competing with Iran and the Arab states for regional leadership. The country also has an emerging economy, which is relatively successful in its region despite its current struggles. Turkey ranks 11th globally when it comes to GDP at purchase power parity, beating all other countries in its proximity except Russia. Population-wise, Turkey has 85 million people, which is only behind Iran, Russia, and Egypt in the region. Its population is slowly growing and is expected to hit 100 million in 2040. What also helps is Turkey's military strength.
It is the second biggest in NATO in terms of active personnel, with over 350,000 people in the military service. The country's defense industry is largely self-sufficient, and Turkey has become a net arms exporter. Finally, there's also a huge political push in Turkey to become a regional leader. This is because of the nationalist government in the country led by President Erdogan.
In this video, we'll go over the rise of Turkey and how it could become one of the world's regional powers. It's a great honor to be with President Erdogan. The President and I have been, we've been very good friends. We've been friends for a long time, almost from day one. I'm a big fan of the President.
You're doing a fantastic job for the people of Turkey. I have to say that President Erdogan was very good. Turkey's economy continues to boom. Gross domestic product grew more than expected in the third quarter. It expanded by almost 4.5%.
The country with the sharpest increase in military spending was Turkey. In the air, on land and at sea, we will work harder to produce more domestically, to meet the needs of our security forces. We will not stop until our country is at the global position it deserves to be in every field.
At the beginning of this century, Turkey focused on being friendly instead of being tough. This approach was called the Zero Problem. policy, meaning that Turkey didn't want to get involved in wars. By doing this, the country hoped to gain popularity and goodwill in the region.
As one of the few countries in the world which has both a Muslim majority and a democracy, Turkey has a unique selling point. It could become an example for others in the region, but this all changed near the end of 2010 when the Arab Spring protests erupted. These were anti-government protests. all over the Middle East, resulting in the overthrow of some governments. Erdogan, then Prime Minister, strategically toured across the region in 2011. He supported the protesters, saying that the people's will is at the core of Turkey's politics in the region.
But soon, the Arab Spring protests evolved into wars all over the Middle East. In this period of unrest, Turkey's zero-problems policy wasn't really viable anymore. In times of conflict, it's hard to be friends with.
everyone. That's why the country has switched to military strength to achieve its regional ambitions. Although Turkey has always been a military power to be reckoned with, this has only become more true over the last few years.
Apart from more than the 350,000 people in the active personnel, it also ranks second in NATO with the number of tanks. Currently, it has more than 2,000 of them. And in the area of combat drones? Turkey is arguably among the three best militaries globally.
On top of that, around 80% of Turkey's military purchases are coming from domestic manufacturers. In various areas, such as drones or missiles, Turkey is already fully self-sufficient. This means that foreign sanctions cannot hurt the country's military capabilities, a problem that Turkey has dealt with before. During the Cyprus War, NATO members placed an arms embargo on their ally. But when Turkey's defense industry becomes completely independent, this trick won't work anymore.
Apart from giving Ankara more autonomy, a domestic defense industry also has other benefits. Turkey can sell weapons to other nations and create strategic partnerships that way. That's why President Erdogan wants to have $10 billion of arms exports in the near future. Last year, Turkey already exported a record number of $5.5 billion in arms. The Turkish Bayraktarş drone has already played a big role in this.
It has been sold to more than 20 countries. The United Arab Emirates made a $2 billion deal to purchase 120 Turkish drones, combined with equipment and training. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has also signed a huge drone contract.
It was described as the biggest defense and aviation export contract in the history of the Republic of Turkey. The value of the deal hasn't been put out into the public. but it's likely much more than the $2 billion of drones sold to the UAE. And this incredibly successful Baraktas drone project is just one of the 850 projects of the Turkish defense industry.
In total, the sector has 3,000 companies with 80,000 employees. Apart from drones, they're also making progress with armored vehicles, artillery, rockets, and air defense systems. Last year, Turkey rolled out a new, domestically produced main battle tank, called the Altai. It is also developing a new state-of-the-art attack helicopter.
The same defense manufacturer is creating a fifth-generation fighter jet called the TF-Khan to replace the Turkish Air Force's F-16s. Although the project is facing some challenges, it has already performed its first test flight. We can see similar progress in Turkey's navy. It has recently inaugurated its largest ever warship, the TCG Anadolu.
The vessel was entirely manufactured in Turkey. although it wasn't designed there. On top of that, Ankara wants to build an aircraft carrier and four new frigates.
The country's defense manufacturers are also looking at the future of warfare, as they're undertaking ambitious projects for unmanned combat vehicles and unmanned In short, the domestic defense industry of Turkey is making rapid strides forward. Erdogan is very proud of this as it was one of the main talking points in his recent election campaign. Apart from industrial capabilities, though, there's another aspect of Turkey's military power. The country has been growing its forward military presence. In Cyprus, Qatar, and Somalia, it has permanent military bases.
There are also military bases in Iraq and Syria. Besides that, Turkey has also signed defense agreements with 10 countries, like Tunisia, Montenegro, and Kazakhstan. This makes Turkey's military involved in all of its nearby regions, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East.
Combined with strong military power at home, Turkey hopes to become one of the regional leaders in security in this way. However, its military is facing one huge weakness, and that's the defense budget. If Turkey wants to have a mighty military with influence all over the region, it needs to spend way more than it currently does. The Turkish government planned to spend 150% more on its defense in 2024. The military budget is going to be around $40 billion, way more than the $16 billion budget in 2023. This would make Turkey one of the regional security leaders. But it's still nothing compared to the international giants.
A budget of $40 billion doesn't even put Turkey in the top 10 globally. Not to mention that the US spends more than 20 times that amount. But Turkey can't really afford to spend more than this, because of the economic problems. In general, the economy is one of the biggest limiting factors for Turkey's power. For years now, the country has been in an economic crisis.
One of the symptoms of this economic downturn is the Turkish currency, which is in a freefall. In 2019, $1 was equal to about 6 Turkish lira. Now, the exchange rate has jumped to about 33 lira per dollar. The effect on Turkey's consumer prices has also been dramatic, with the inflation rate hitting 85.5% at its peak in 2022. This was after years of inflation at rates between 10 and 25%. Right now, inflation is still over 60%.
As a result, two-thirds of the people in Turkey are struggling to pay for food and rent. To make matters even worse, the country has been running at huge current account deficits. The current account measures how much money is going in and going out of a country, in the form of trade and investment. As an emerging economy, you'd expect that Turkey has a lot of exports and foreign investments.
But this is not the case. Last year, the deficit stood at $45.2 billion. Basically, Turkey is failing as an emerging economy. It's not competitive enough for international trade. as it's importing more than it's exporting, and the country is also not attractive enough for investments.
Turkey has only been receiving about 1-2% of its GDP in foreign direct investments, which isn't enough to really spur economic growth. So, Turkey is dealing with a lot of economic problems in the short term. But when we look at the country's fundamentals, well, the picture is much brighter. The country has a strategic location, a young and growing population, and a strong industrial base. A few decades from now, the Turkish economy could look a whole lot different.
After tense talks with the EU, Recep Tayyip Erdogan refused to comment. But the EU stressed that Turkey first had to uphold its end of a 2016 deal to host about 3.6 million refugees from Syria in return for EU aid. If Turkey wants to become a regional power, it obviously has to be strategic about its relationship with other countries. Let's first look at Turkey's position with the West. The diplomacy with Europe and the United States is full of contradictions.
On one hand, it's the only country in the Middle East with NATO membership. which makes it crucial for defending NATO's interests. Overall, Turkey has one of the most strategic locations in the alliance.
It sits right at the crossroads between Europe and Asia, and between the Black and the Mediterranean Seas. This gives the country a lot of bargaining power within NATO. Still, Turkey is struggling to truly fit in with the West. In 1987, Turkey tried to join the European Union, to become economically allied with its European peers.
After... decades of talks, however, the accession process was halted based on ideological grounds. According to Brussels, Turkey's system isn't democratic enough and it has a lack of human rights. And the problems aren't only ideological, but also geopolitical.
Turkey has hostile relations with EU members Cyprus and Greece due to a, let's call it, complicated history. For nearly 400 years, Greece was a part of the Ottoman Empire. This occupation was peaceful for most of the time, but it ended violently during a war of independence.
After eight years of fighting, the modern state of Greece was founded. Because of the massacres on both sides, the relations between Greece and Turkey started on a terrible note. After World War I, where Greece and Turkey fought on opposite sides, the violence erupted once again.
Greek forces invaded the Turkish mainland, but they were soon defeated. 100 years later, this decisive victory over Greece is still celebrated in Turkey. But for Greece, this was a tragic period.
Many ethnic Greeks living in the coastal regions of Turkey were murdered. According to one study, 300,000 ethnic Greeks were killed during and after the conflict. In more recent times, the conflict between the two groups erupted once again in Cyprus.
For decades, there were both Turkish and Greek communities on the island, creating enormous tension. Greek nationalists wanted to join Greece, which the Turkish communities viewed as a threat. Eventually, Turkey invaded the island in 1974. Other countries didn't agree with this move, and the United States imposed an arms embargo on Turkey shortly after. Right now, the island is split between the ethnic Greeks in the south and the ethnic Turks in the north.
However, Turkey is the only country who recognizes northern Cyprus as a state. The rest of the world only recognizes the Republic of Cyprus, which is an EU member state and an ally of the West. What complicates this even further is the ongoing Aegean dispute between Turkey and Greece. The two nations disagree on their territorial waters, national airspace, and exclusive economic zones.
On this map, you can see the overlapping claims between Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, and the unrecognized Republic of Northern Cyprus. This is an important issue. because some of these territories hold natural gas reserves.
Disputes like this have caused Turkey's relationship with the West to be in bad shape. The same is true for Turkey's stance on the war on Ukraine, which has also led to disagreements within NATO. This might not seem obvious at first.
President Erdogan has said that Russia's invasion of the country is unacceptable, just like every other NATO member has. Over the last year, Turkey has also been a key military supplier for Ukraine. The Bayraktash drones, in particular, have played a crucial role in defending Ukraine against Russia. But Turkey isn't just supporting Ukraine.
It's also helping Russia. Not in a military sense, but economically. After the war, Russia has become Turkey's largest import partner. In 2023, the trade volume between Russia and Turkey exceeded $65 billion. There is a simple reason for this.
Turkey was one of the few NATO countries that didn't place heavy sanctions on Russia, despite international pressure to do so. This has allowed several Turkish companies to resell sanctioned goods from Europe and the US to Russia. This has also made the country a top destination for Russian oligarchs evading international sanctions. On top of that, Turkey is a transit route for Russian grain smuggling.
Much of the grain that Russia has stolen from Ukraine is transported through Turkish ports. But the biggest effect on not sanctioning Russia has to do with energy imports. Because Moscow has lost many of its export partners, Turkey is now getting Russian oil, gas, and coal at a discount. Putin has even proposed to make Turkey a regional gas hub, seeing it as the most reliable export route to the rest of Europe. So you could say that Ankara isn't that tough on Putin, despite its support for Ukraine.
The only thing that we can say about Turkey's foreign policy is that it's only following its own self-interest. We can also see this in the war in Syria, where Turkey is in an awkward situation with the United States. President Erdogan chose to support groups opposing the Syrian government, most notably the Free Syrian Army. The US also opposes the Syrian government, but it's not that simple.
This chart shows just how complicated the entire war has become. The U.S. supports the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters against the Islamic State. Turkey doesn't like these Syrian Democratic Forces because of a possible link between its Kurdish faction and the PKK terrorist group. That's why President Erdogan has accused the U.S. of supporting terrorists and causing a sea of blood in Syria.
For Turkey, the PKK is a serious threat. The Kurds are an ethnic minority in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. and some of them want to start an independent state in this area. The PKK has used violence and terrorist attacks to try to achieve this. Recently, there was a bombing in Turkey's capital, Ankara, and this wasn't the first one.
The conflict between the PKK and the Turkish government has been going on for decades, killing thousands on both sides. Because of this clash with the PKK, the Turkish military has attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces. In the north, Turkey has invaded Syria four times. the last operation being in 2020, President Erdogan wanted to create a buffer zone 30 kilometers deep into Syrian territory. This would protect Turkey against the Kurdish militias, and it would be a place to house Syrian refugees.
But it remains a difficult situation, as the United States continues to support the Syrian Democratic Forces. On top of that, there have been accusations of Turkey committing human rights abuses in Syria. Other NATO countries aren't happy with Turkey's involvement in Syria.
But the same can be said the other way around. The Turkish government has accused multiple countries of supporting the Kurdish separatist movement. This includes Sweden and Finland, who wanted to join the NATO alliance but were blocked by Turkey for months.
They allegedly held PKK supporters within their borders, and Turkey wanted them to be extradited. The two countries have also imposed a partial arms embargo on Turkey in 2019 because of its involvement in Ankara wanted Sweden and Finland to lift this embargo, which they've done recently. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Riyadh for talks on how to end the crisis. Russian and Turkish military cooperation has been increasing recently, especially in light of Ankara's purchase of the S-400 missile system from Moscow. Apart from its relations with the West, Turkey also has a complicated position in the Middle East.
But, before we dive into this, please hit the like button down below. It helps the channel a lot, because videos like these don't get very far without your support. Ultimately, you guys allow us to make these videos on topics like this. Alright, now let's get back to the basics. Let's first discuss Turkey's relations with one of the major powers in the region, Iran.
Iran is the enemy of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. This is because of Iran's nuclear program and its regional proxy group. groups.
For years now, the West has placed heavy sanctions on Iran because of this. However, Turkey strongly opposes these sanctions. In 2018, Erdogan blamed the United States and Israel for causing anti-government protests in Tehran.
Afterwards, he said the sanctions were an opportunity to enhance bilateral ties with Iran. Especially in an economic sense, Turkey has only strengthened its relations with Iran over the past years. In a meeting with Iranian officials, Erdogan said that the United States is not ready to Erdogan said bilateral trade has reached $7.5 billion as of now.
I believe that we will achieve $30 billion. Currently, Turkey is considering to open new border crossings to its eastern neighbor. And the ties with Iran aren't just for bilateral trade, but also for geopolitical purposes. This was made clear during the 2017 Qatar diplomatic crisis.
Because of a power struggle between several Gulf states, A Saudi Arabian-led coalition enforced a total blockade on Qatar. Turkey and Iran both opposed the Saudi coalition in support of the smaller nation. They do this because they want to curb the Saudi influence in the region. Iran has been fueling proxy conflicts with the Saudis for years now. This rivalry has become a cold war in the Middle East.
Turkey kind of likes what Iran's doing, as long as it's targeted at Saudi Arabia. But But there are limits in Turkey's cooperation with Iran. The majority of Turkey's citizens have unfavorable views towards the country. The fact that Iran is trying to develop nukes doesn't benefit anyone in the Middle East. Most people in Turkey see this as a threat to regional security.
And when we look at Turkey's regional ambitions, their interests don't fully align with those of Iran. Both Iran and Turkey want to become leaders in the Middle East, which has led to a strategic competition. The ongoing conflict in Syria is a prime example of this.
Iran is allied with the Syrian regime and various proxy groups in the country. Because of its interest there, it has condemned the Turkish invasion and occupation of northern Syria. The same holds true in northern Iraq, where Turkey has military bases to fight the Kurdish separatists.
Because Iran has ties with the government and some militias in Iraq, it doesn't like this Turkish influence. On one occasion, an Iran-backed group has even threatened to attack Turkish forces. And the Levant isn't the only place where there are tensions. In the Caucasus, Turkey and Iran also have conflicting interests. Turkey is a close ally of Azerbaijan, providing economic and military support to the country.
It has good cultural and historic ties with Azerbaijan, as both countries are Turkic and Muslim. With the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict flaring up again, This became as relevant as ever. When Azerbaijan invaded the area, Erdogan came out in full support of his ally, saying that it needed to defend its territorial integrity. This is also because Turkey's relation with Armenia is… well, terrible, to say the least. After World War I, the Ottomans committed a genocide against the Armenian population, with an estimated 1 million Armenians murdered.
To this day, Turkey doesn't recognize that this has happened. which strains ties with Armenia. Instead of saying sorry, Ankara has doubled down on its support for Azerbaijan.
Turkey had provided 77 million dollars in arms to its ally in the month before fighting broke out. This includes drones, rocket launchers, ammunition, and much more. The two countries have also signed a mutual defense agreement. According to Erdogan, Turkey and Azerbaijan are like one nation with two states. But meanwhile, Iran's relations with Azerbaijan are terrible.
This is because of Western involvement in the country. American companies have interests in the Azeri oil business, and Israel is one of the main supporters of Azerbaijan's military. Between 2017 and 2020, Israel accounted for more than 60% of its weapons imports. Because its enemies support Azerbaijan, Iran has chosen to support Armenia. With Armenia's biggest ally, Russia, distracted in Ukraine, Iran is filling the vacuum.
And there are even reports of Iran stoking the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, using it as a proxy against its pro-Western neighbor. According to the Iranians, Azerbaijan is a proxy of Israel and the United States. So this conflict in the Caucasus region is yet another field where Iran and Turkey are on opposing sides. Even though the Turkish government wants to expand cooperation with Iran, there's also serious strategic competition between the two countries. Turkey has the same kind of relationship with Saudi Arabia and its allies.
On the one hand, they stand in the way of Turkey's regional ambitions. The Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salam, has said that Turkey is part of the triangle of evil, together with Iran and the Islamist groups. He accused the country of trying to reinstate the Ottoman Empire, which he sees as a threat. Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leader of the Islamic world. The country houses two holy cities in Islam, namely Mecca and Medina.
And it also has a large geopolitical say, as it's involved in many regional conflicts like the ones in Libya, Sudan, or Yemen. On top of that, it has the biggest economy in the region, just behind Turkey according to the IMF estimates. Saudi Arabia has a smaller military than Turkey, but not when it comes to spending. In 2022, the country spent $1.5 billion $75 billion on its military, which is the fifth largest budget globally. Turkey's planned $40 billion budget is still far below this level.
Despite the geopolitical rivalry, though, Turkey has expanded its economic relationship with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states. Recently, President Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to make trade and investment deals. This includes a $40 billion trade deal with the UAE and plans for a similar deal with the Saudis. The Gulf states are particularly interested in Turkey's growing defense industry. In return, they will invest tens of billions of dollars into the Turkish economy.
They've also provided currency swap agreements to Turkey, which help to stabilize its currency. But even though there's economic cooperation, there's also a lot of competition behind the scenes. The civil war in Libya was an example of this, before the ceasefire in 2020. Saudi Arabia has provided support for the Libyan National Army, joined by the United Arab Emirates.
Turkey actively supported the Libyan government of national accord, a group opposed to the national army. Turkey and the Gulf states were fighting each other by proxy, which obviously created a lot of tension. However, this wasn't the biggest proxy conflict between Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
The Qatar crisis that we mentioned earlier was far worse. Turkey is a very close ally of Qatar, which is one of the few Gulf countries opposed to Saudi Arabia's leadership role. Although the tensions have cooled down since 2017, Qatar is still not in Saudi Arabia's sphere of influence. Turkey has taken advantage of this by stationing thousands of troops in the country and establishing a permanent military base there.
This protection from Turkey allows Qatar to continue being independent from its neighbor. In turn, Turkey has received financial support from the fossil fuel-rich country. And with a military base in Qatar, Turkey also has a strong position in the Gulf region.
It's a rerun of the election in June when the ruling AK party lost its absolute majority and then failed to form a coalition government. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cast his ballot on Sunday, hoping to return to single-party AKP rule after months of political uncertainty. The leader of the left-wing pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party, Salahattin Demirtas, cast his vote in Istanbul, while Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu cast his ballot in Konya. So, Turkey isn't afraid to stand up against the two major powers of the region, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia. Through military, political, and economic influence, Turkey wants to become its own regional leader.
But to understand why the country is doing this, we also have to look at its history. You see, Turkey has long been a global center of power. During the 15th and 16th century, the Turkish state was one of the most powerful in the world under the Ottoman Empire.
Turkish tribes began to expand their territories in the 1300s and continued to do so for several hundreds of years. Because of incredible military strength, this expansion was one of the most successful in the entire history. At its peak, the Ottoman Empire controlled most of the Middle East, Southeastern Europe, and North Africa.
It reached all the way from modern Austria to Yemen and from Ukraine to Egypt. In total, it covered 19.9% of the world's population. million square kilometers.
For comparison, that's about 3 million square kilometers bigger than modern-day Russia. With their vast territories, the Ottomans controlled some of the most lucrative trade routes in the world. Almost all of the trade between Asia and Europe flowed through their lands, giving the empire tremendous prosperity.
This lasted all the way to the end of World War I, which isn't all that long ago, historically speaking. Near its final days, however, the Ottoman Empire suffered a slow and painful demise. Its leaders became corrupt, its economy declined, and its military began to lose wars against other great powers. After World War I, the once thriving empire was partitioned into the countries that we know of today, creating the modern-day Middle East. This marked the end of Turkey's regional ambitions.
For a while, at least. The leader of the newly found Republic of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, was focused on keeping the country internally stable. He wanted to be independent economically, politically, and militarily, and he opted for international isolation.
But a few generations later, this policy was replaced by something completely new, neo-Ottomanism. Just after the Cold War ended, the leaders in Turkey saw an opportunity to become a regional leader once again. The country had already abandoned its ideas of neutrality after it joined NATO in 1952, choosing sides in the US-Soviet Union rivalry. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Turkey's foreign policy began to be even more proactive. Under President Turgut Ocal, neo-Ottomanism became a central theme in Turkey's politics.
Basically, the president wanted to make his country a regional leader once again. This followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, which opened up the playing field. He said that three important areas have opened in front of Turkey, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East.
Nowadays, these neo-Ottoman ideas have gotten even stronger. As the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East descended into warfare and chaos, the public wants a strong Turkish state. This led to the rise of the Nationalist Justice and Development Party, or AKP, with neo-Ottoman policies.
The AKP wants a say in regional affairs, backed by a strong military. And although the party doesn't like the term neo-Ottoman, it's definitely a return to the past. The chances of another pandemic coming are low. But that doesn't mean that YouTube is not growing. In fact, YouTube just overtook Netflix in terms of how much time people spent on their TVs.
And that's just television. Imagine how much time people are watching YouTube if you combine TV, phones, and computers. If you're waiting on a sign to start a channel, well, this may be the perfect one.
And if you are looking to learn how people grow on YouTube in 2024, like this guy who got millions of views and just two months after starting, then I have the solution for you. We are opening up the wait list for our first ever YouTube Basic Academy cohort. Here, we not only share the secrets we have learned about uploading for years on YouTube, we also share how we're able to start channels in completely different niches and scale them to millions of views in just a few months.
We will also have live Q&As, a community where everyone can interact and learn from each other, and much more. If you want information on the cohort, then just click on the link in the description or scan the QR code that's on the screen right now. You can also sign up for the waitlist there.