Lecture Notes: Thinking Rigorously in Politics

Introduction

• Focus on bias and logical inconsistency in policy analysis.
• Importance of rigorous thinking in politics.
• Discuss the shortcomings of average people's understanding of political issues.

Housekeeping

• Lecture duration: ~1.5 hours.
• Materials include U.S. founding and Constitution overview.
• Explanation of the word "politics" originating from Aristotle; meaning the study of the "polis" (city-state).

Definition of Politics

• Politics defined by David Easton: "study of power and the authoritative allocation of values for a society."
• Importance of understanding allocation in both politics and economics.

Distinction Between Political Philosophy and Political Science

• Political Philosophy:
  • Asks, "What is the greatest good?"
  • Seeks to create a system that achieves that good.
• Political Science:
  • Studies existing political systems/structures.
  • Uses empirical evidence to analyze and draw conclusions.

Broad Subfields of Political Science

• American Politics: Focus of this course (POL 102).
• Comparative Politics: Domestic politics of foreign nations (POL 103).
• International Relations: Relations between nations.
• Political Economy: Studies economic relations affecting politics and vice versa.
• Political Psychology: Explains political behavior through psychological perspectives.

Importance of Critical Thinking

• Students should not have excessive respect for professors or published authors; question everything.
• Example of poor analysis by a PhD holder demonstrates that intelligence is not exclusive to those credentialed.
• Avoid hero worship; trust in one's intelligence and scrutinize arguments critically.

Bias and Logical Inconsistency

• Recognize bias in opposing views; challenge biases in supportive views.
• Demonstrating logical inconsistency through examples (e.g., A > B, B > C, C > A).

The Role of Cognitive Dissonance

• Definition: The mind’s desire to resolve conflict between two beliefs.
• Implications of cognitive dissonance in political beliefs and analysis.
• Example: Aesop’s Fables and the fox’s rationalization of sour grapes.

Conformity Pressure

• Solomon Asch’s experiment highlights how people conform to majority opinions.
• Conformity can lead to false perceptions of public opinion (e.g., polls during elections).

Statistical Misinterpretation

• Bayes' Theorem: Importance of understanding how to correctly interpret probabilities.
• Example of finding correlation between steroid use and positive tests; inversion of statistics is crucial for accurate understanding.

Arms Races and War

• Discusses the common belief that arms races cause wars; critiques this notion by emphasizing lack of logical connection.
• Analyzes the security dilemma in international relations.

Conclusion

• Emphasizes the need for students to think critically and independently.
• Encourages skepticism towards political narratives and policies.
• Ends with a Zen parable about perspective and outcomes, reinforcing the importance of not jumping to conclusions.