Lecture Notes: Financial Forecast and Investment Strategies for 2024

Introduction

• Presenter: Felix
• Focus on a financial forecast that could change the game for 25 growth stocks.
• Key topic: Interest rates and their impact on these stocks.

Interest Rates Overview

• Federal Reserve's role in controlling inflation through interest rates.
• Potential rate cuts might be on the horizon, impacting growth stocks.
• Rate cuts could benefit struggling stocks in a high-rate environment.

Understanding Rate Cuts

• Interest rate cuts can lead to:
  • Borrowing Bonanza: Cheaper loans could increase borrowing.
  • Investment Injection: Businesses may invest more in growth, leading to economic boosts.
  • Stock Market Shakeup: Investors may seek higher returns in stocks when rates are low.
  • Bond Market Blues: Existing bonds may become more valuable, affecting investment allocations.
  • Currency Concerns: A weaker dollar could boost exports for multinational companies.

Risks and Historical Context

• Rate cuts are not always beneficial and can signal economic weakness.
• Example: Financial crisis of 2007-2009 saw rate cuts but also market downturns.

Sector Performance in 2024

• Information Technology: Leading sector with a 57% gain.
• Consumer Discretionary: Strong performance but slight dip in 2024.
• Real Estate: Moderate gains but facing headwinds.

Identifying 25 Potential Growth Stocks

1. Tesla: Potential benefit from increased EV demand and energy storage expansion.
2. Coinbase: Positioned to capitalize on increased crypto interest.
3. Robinhood: Expanding offerings could attract retail investors.
4. Shopify: Likely to benefit from increased small business activity.
5. SoFi: Potential growth in loan refinancing and new accounts.
6. Nubank: Expansion in Latin America with a digital-first approach.
7. PayPal: Venmo could see increased transaction volume.
8. Archer Aviation: High-risk investment in flying taxis.
9. Amazon: Continued growth in AWS and advertising.
10. Paycom: Likely demand for HR tools in a challenging economy.
11. F5: Key player in cybersecurity with potential growth.
12. UiPath: Automation solutions could gain adoption.
13. Twilio: Essential for business communications.
14. Smartsheet: Important for remote work collaboration.
15. Peakstone Realty Trust: REIT that could benefit from rate cuts.
16. Zoom: Expanded beyond video conferencing.
17. HubSpot: Growth in online marketing tools.
18. MercadoLibre: E-commerce growth in Latin America.
19. Salesforce: CRM tools could benefit from digital transformations.
20. Eli Lilly: Growth potential in healthcare innovations.
21. Global X FinTech ETF (FINX): Exposure to fintech innovations.
22. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ): Potential gains in real estate.
23. Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH): Benefits from potential rate cuts.
24. US Treasury Bonds: Existing bonds may rally with rate cuts.
25. Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT): Broad exposure to tech sector.

Final Thoughts

• Importance of personal research and understanding of risks and rewards.
• The stock market is a long-term game requiring strategy and patience.
• Upcoming workshop invitation: felixfrenz.org/workshop
• Conclusion: Knowledge and strategy are keys to successful investing.