Demographic Transition Model

May 16, 2024

Demographic Transition Model Lecture Notes

Introduction to Demographic Transition

  • Demographic transition: model describing changes in a country's population.
  • Transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates stabilizes population.
  • Often occurs in industrialized nations; less developed countries follow the advancements of more developed ones.

Growth Rate

  • Growth Rate Definition: Measures how a country’s population grows/shrinks over a time period.
  • Calculation Example:
    • Start: 1M people.
    • Add: 20,000 births + 50,000 immigrants.
    • Subtract: 15,000 deaths + 5000 emigrants.
    • End: 1,050,000 people.
  • Growth rate formula:
    • (End population - Start population) / Start population * 100 = % growth rate.

Positive Growth Rate Factors

  • Economic Benefits: Children can work to support the family.
  • Government Incentives: e.g., Japan's incentives for each child.
  • Religious Influences: promotes large families, sometimes forbids contraceptives.
  • Cultural Influences: prestige of having children, passing down traits/values.

Demographic Transition Model Stages

Stage 1: High Stationary

  • Characteristics: High birth rates, high death rates.
  • Causes: Limited birth control, poor nutrition, high disease rates.
  • Historical Context: Pre-18th Century.

Stage 2: Early Expanding

  • Characteristics: High birth rates, declining death rates.
  • Causes: Improvements in health, sanitation, food availability.
  • Historical Context: Post-Industrial Revolution Western Europe.

Stage 3: Late Expanding

  • Characteristics: Declining birth rates and death rates.
  • Causes: Better healthcare, contraception, industrialization, changing social trends (smaller families, laws against child labor).
  • Current Example: Many countries in South America and the Middle East.

Stage 4: Low Stationary

  • Characteristics: Low birth rates, low death rates (population stabilization).
  • Causes: High contraception use, high percentage of women in workforce, focus on careers over children.
  • Current Example: United States, Australia.

Stage 5: Declining? (Speculative)

  • Malthusian Theory: Population stabilizes due to resource limitations (food shortage, public health disaster).
  • Anti-Malthusian Theory: Decline in population due to individualism, higher standard of living, government policies (e.g., China's one-child policy).
  • Alternative Views: Potential for population growth due to high living standards promoting fertility.
  • Future uncertainty; will have to wait to see outcomes.
  • Speculative discussion: potential off-planet colonization.

Conclusion

  • Demographic transition moves from high to low birth/death rates in industrialization.
  • Future trends in population growth are uncertain.