Lecture Notes: Avoiding Failures and Making Better Decisions

Introduction

• Personal anecdote of breaking into own house in Montreal winter.
• Under stress, cortisol affects decision-making.
• Story of missing passport and stressing over breaking window.

Concept of Prospective Hindsight

• Introduced by Danny Kahneman, known as the pre-mortem.
• Prospective Hindsight: Anticipate what could go wrong and prevent or minimize the damage.
• Example of designating spots for easily lost items like keys and passports.

Stress and Logical Thinking

• Brain releases cortisol under stress which clouds thinking.
• Systems should be put in place to manage stress.

Importance of Designated Spots at Home

• Hippocampus Role: Tracks location of important items.
• Application: Designate places for keys, passports, and glasses using hooks, bowls, and drawers.

Travel Tips

• Take photos of critical documents (credit cards, driver’s license, passport) and save them to the cloud for easy replacement if lost.
• Practical things that reduce stress during travel.

Medical Decision-Making

• Example Scenario: Doctor suggests a statin for high cholesterol.
• Important Statistic: Number Needed to Treat (NNT)
  • Definition: Number of people who need to take a drug before one person is helped.
  • Typical NNT: For a common statin, 300 people must take it for one to benefit.
• Side Effects Frequency: 5% suffer from severe side effects.
• Key takeaway: Discuss NNT and side effects with doctors for informed consent.
• Similar stats apply to other treatments (e.g., prostate removal surgery).

Pre-Mortem in Practice

• Think ahead about questions and scenarios (medical decisions, quality of life discussions with loved ones).
• Logical thinking diminishes under stress; prepare in advance.

Personal System Improvements

• Installed a combination lock with a key outside the house for emergencies.
• Acknowledges not being perfectly organized but sees organization as a gradual process.

Conclusion

• Recognize personal flaws and prepare for potential failures.
• Using systems and pre-mortem can help minimize damage and prevent failures.
• Continuous improvement towards better organization.