India and Russia New Military Pact

Overview

• India and Russia are signing a new military pact.
• The pact has been delayed for many years but was approved by Russia last week.
• Once India approves it, the deal will come into force.

Coverage of the Deal

• Main focus: logistical issues.
• Provides access to each other's military facilities (ports, air bases).
  • Easier joint training.
  • Ports visits and maintenance.
  • Seamless military cooperation.

India’s Existing Military Deals

• US, France, Vietnam, South Korea.
• Russia pact could be more consequential because:
  1. Russia is India's top military partner (85% of Indian weapons have Russian origin).
  2. Russia is at war, and Western countries may scrutinize the pact.

Benefits of the Agreement

• For Russia:
  • Expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean.
  • Building a military base in Sudan.
  • Repair and replenish ships in Indian ports.
• For India:
  • Access to the Arctic region.
  • Arctic resources: fisheries, oil, minerals.
  • Russia’s 400+ military facilities in the Arctic.

Geopolitical Implications

1. India’s Strategy:
   • Multiple military pacts in last decade (US, Australia, France, Southeast Asia).
   • Extended military reach, especially for the Navy.
   • Easier logistics for naval missions (refueling, repairs, visas).
2. Message to the West:
   • Indicates India won’t abandon Moscow despite reduced reliance on Russian weapons (from 76% to 36% in last decade).
3. Message to China:
   • Preventing Chinese monopoly in the Indian Ocean and Arctic.
   • Complex relations: Russia-China as partners but also competitors in the same regions.

Conclusion

• Approval of the pact by India could lead to interesting geopolitical conversations.
• Reactions from Washington will be particularly noteworthy.