Science and Math Education Persistence

Key Issue: Dropout Rates

• Many high school seniors interested in science and math degrees.
• Approximately half drop out by the end of their second year.
• Persistence problem in science and math education.

Hypothesis: Cognitive Ability

• Common belief: Science and math are hard; requires high cognitive ability.
• Prediction: Persistence should correlate with cognitive ability.
• Example College: Hartwick College (used as a proxy).

Hartwick College Analysis

• Distribution of math SAT scores among freshman STEM hopefuls shows wide range of abilities.
• Observation: Top third by SAT scores secure most of the STEM degrees.
• Bottom third have high dropout rates.

Expectation vs Reality at Harvard

• Hypothesis: Smarter students should persist more.
• Harvard's lowest third in math SAT scores = Hartwick's top third.
• Pattern: Similar dropout rates among lower third despite high ability.

Relative Deprivation Theory

• Concept: Self-assessment based on immediate circle, not global standards.
• Example: Higher suicide rates in happy countries due to relative happiness.
• Application: Harvard students drop out because they feel less competent relative to peers, despite high absolute ability.

Implications for Students

• Advice: Avoid attending the most prestigious institution where you might rank lower.
• Rule of Thumb: Your odds of graduating with a STEM degree decrease by 2% for every 10-point increase in peers' average SAT scores.

Practical Advice

• Hiring: Focus on class rank, not institution prestige.
• College Choice: Select institutions where you can be in the top part of your class.
• Rational Decision Making: Avoid the allure of elite schools if it affects persistence negatively.