Crash Course World History: Malthusian Theory and the End of Humanity

Introduction

• Host: John Green
• Topic: The theory of the downfall of civilization focusing on population growth.
• Connection to Thomas Malthus' theory, not involving aliens or robots.

Historical Context

• Population Growth Timeline:
  • 10,000 BCE: Under a billion people.
  • 1800 CE: Still under a billion people.

Thomas Malthus and His Theory

• Essay on the Principle of Population (1800s):

  • Observed the increasing number of poor in England.
  • Analogized human population growth to rabbits.
  • Predicted checks on population through predators, harsh weather, epidemics, and starvation.

• Malthus' Predictions:

  • Geometric growth in human population vs. arithmetic growth in food production.
  • Predicted a cycle of misery with population balancing with the land's fertility.

The Cycle of Misery

• Powerful individuals would seize assets of the weak, leading to a balance via starvation and disease.
• Malthus labeled this theory as the 'cycle of misery'.

Impact and Misinterpretation

• Irish Potato Famine (1846-1851):

  • Fungus wiped out potato crop leading to massive starvation.
  • English policy, influenced by Malthusian thought, refrained from providing aid.

• Population Growth Contrary to Malthus:

  • 1750-1850: Population grew significantly despite Malthus' predictions.
  • Technological advancements and agricultural innovation led to exponential population growth.

Agricultural Revolution

• In China:

  • Use of dikes, paddle wheels, and fertilizers in rice paddies.
  • Allowed two rice crops per year.

• In Europe:

  • Jethro Tull's seed press, crop rotation by Charles Townsend, and selective breeding by Robert Blakewell.
  • Concept of private property and land enclosure in England.

Modern Perspective

• Malthus' Influence:

  • Continued relevance due to finite planet resources and climate change.
  • UN reports on climate change indicate potential food shortages.

• Adaptation and Innovation:

  • Malthus underestimated technological advances in food production.
  • Human existence is not zero-sum; mutual benefit is possible.

Conclusion

• Malthus' predictions were incorrect, but his ideas remain influential due to ongoing environmental concerns.
• The episode emphasizes the importance of adapting to change and the role of innovation.
• Closing statement: "Don't forget to be awesome!"

Acknowledgements

• Crash Course production credits and support through Subbable.com.
• Encouragement to support Crash Course through subscriptions and merchandise.