Transcript for:
The Economics of Nuclear Energy Debate

massive solar and wind energy companies have popped up all over the world as a result of our search for affordable clean energy when taking into account the eight years prior investment in these renewable resources totaled 273 billion dollars in 2018 bringing the total amount invested to 2.3 trillion dollars most people find this to be good news but many have wondered why nuclear power was not used a quick analysis of a nation's carbon dioxide production per kilowatt hour of energy produced reveals that France is now performing better than Germany in the battle to produce low carbon energy with nuclear power providing 61 of its electricity France emits only 32 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour Germany a nation that has spent billions on wind energy and is progressively replacing all of its nuclear power facilities with natural gas plants produces 318 grams of carbon dioxide for every kilowatt hour it obviously makes sense why others support nuclear energy over Renewables because wind is intermittent it needs to be supported by another form of energy production that can quickly ramp up and produce electricity when the wind dies natural gas is the ideal solution for that at a fair price the wind itself emits less carbon dioxide but every kilowatt hour of energy it produces at about 11 grams just under the nucleus is 12 grams in actuality the wind doesn't directly compete with nuclear energy it does so with larger base load power plants like Natural Gas to understand why wind is losing this war we must look at the economics of the global nuclear energy protest risk potential profits and the length of time it would take to see a return on investment are the three most crucial considerations to take into account when deciding where to invest money in infrastructure a return on investment calculation for two power facilities a 1 000 megawatts nuclear facility and a 1 000 megawatts natural gas plant is shown in this simplified example this computation is based on the excellent YouTube video posted by the Illinois energy Professor the cost of construction the cost of fuel and the length of construction are the three largest factors that differ between the two energy sources when we make this kind of comparison it is difficult to estimate the standard nuclear power plant building costs from 5500 to 8 100 per kilowatt the price varies significantly from Project to project assuming a lower cost of six thousand dollars per kilowatts a nuclear power station with a capacity of 1000 megawatts would cost 6 billion dollars building a one thousand megawatt power plant would cost 0.92 billion dollars but let us round that up to one billion dollars for Simplicity in contrast natural gas power plants are among the least expensive to build costing roughly 920 dollars per kilowatt since natural gas is less expensive it will take the nuclear power plant longer to repay its costs which I know you already perceive as a concern due to the length of time required for each this race between the hair and the Tortoise intensifies construction of a typical nuclear power plant takes six years while natural gas power plants typically take two years this becomes a particular problem when debts and interest rates are involved we will assume that both plants will borrow one billion dollars in installments over a 25-year period at a three percent interest rate this means that each plant will make a 6 million dollar annual payment here we will adapt a concept from an Illinois energy Professor to demonstrate the relationship between profits and costs each full block units like this represents 5.6 million dollars blocks can be partially filled to represent smaller fractions we are using this to put the enormous sums of money involved on a more human scale these blocks represent dead below the x-axis profits above the line nuclear profits and loss on the left side of the graph and natural gases on the right the nuclear power plant borrows another billion in the second year so now it owes the bank double the repayments and now it has a total of three units of loss by contrast natural gas does not borrow another billion so it only needs to pay off the current one unit of debts per year for a total of two units of loss it took two years to complete the natural gas plants we need to calculate the revenue from both of our 1000 megawatt facilities so that if they both run for an hour they will each generate 1 000 megawatt hours of energy however because the energy Market is complex it is not easy to calculate the revenue from this number grid operators May purchase a significant portion of nucleus base load out in advance for a fixed price because it can turn itself off easily while natural gas plants can continue operating after reaching their Peak by shutting down at night and only operating during the evening when electricity demand and prices are at their highest nuclear power plants must continuously run and electricity prices drop in the middle of the night as demand Falls as a result it makes sense for nuclear power plants and grid operators to agree on a better price as a result they spend less on operating and maintaining their plants and make the most money possible from the fuel that they use add in transmission costs as energy is lost through power lines taxes and all the other complicated factors and calculating earnings become even more challenging this calculation will be inaccurate the natural gas plant will have a revenue of nine and a quarter of these blocks in its third year after our loan repayments turning to eight and a quarter block of profits but there is another significant deduction we need to take into account that significantly varies between these power plants fuel costs in our assumption we will assume that they will both earn the same amount at 525 million dollars a year after all these deductions are made nuclear power has one major advantage its fuel is relatively inexpensive simply by virtue of needing much less of it than natural gas does one uranium fuel Palace the size of a triple a battery has the capacity to release the same amount of energy as one tonne of coal or half a ton of natural gas to run the 1000 megawatt facility for an entire year you would need about 64 million dollars worth of fuel or 1.1 currency blocks to produce the same amount of electricity with the natural gas facility you would need about 450 million dollars worth of fuel or 7.9 currency blocks these prices will also change however keep in mind that this calculation is merely hypothetical once the nuclear power plant is operational it can produce electricity for far less money than a natural gas plant which will generate 525 million dollars in Revenue after deducting loan payments and fuel costs we are left with about one-third of our currency units in profit in year three the nuclear power plant borrows another billion meaning it now owes three units of loan payments however removing one-third of the units from the nuclear plant loss Yin adds another billion lost units adding four loss units natural gas plants remove a further third of units completed and operating primarily nuclear power plants seven-year Revenue generation after loan payments and fuel costs equals 2.2 profit units leave a full repayment in 24 years over the long term the nuclear power plants is insanely profitable but the risks involved in achieving that profits is high the nuclear power plants is currently making far more profit per year but it still has a long way to go in reversing this loss year 7 year 8 year 9 year 10 year 11 year 12 year 13 and here year year 15 year 16 the nuclear power plants has now broken even and even made of profits year 17 year 18 year 19 and year 20 when six years have passed and only 1.2 billion dollars in loan repayments have been made investors and politicians alike are afraid to put their money on the line The company took out another loan to pay for the loan payments because financing these things is difficult and getting money from politicians is difficult because most politicians aren't going to think about long-term energy strategy because it won't start six years later 1.2 billion dollars in loan repayments have been made with no revenue on the books before even talking about the safety concerns nuclear energy just becomes a tremendously tough investment to justify over time leading to an even larger run into the negative before income begins examining these figures you would never anticipate a nuclear power plant manager choosing to close and yes that is a functioning plant down exactly what is occurring in numerous locations in the Diablo Canyon power plant for example Pacific Gas and Electric operate this power plant in California which uses a variety of energy producing sources including nuclear energy natural gas and renewable energy a corporation that is publicly traded maximizing making money is their rights and yes they have chosen to terminate the Diablo when Canyon Nuclear Power Plant opens in 2024. why would its 40-year license expire they act in that way well that's difficult in the sequence they have to renew their license in order to update the facilities as a whole at a cost they thought was excessive that they had to transition from a single cooling system through a mechanism that pumps Marine water through the cooling facility and discarded into a closed off sea system that uses evaporative cooling in a cycle the same amount of water was used continuously resulting in a lower impact on the environment particularly the cost of integrating was considerable after the necessary seismic protection learnings from the Fukushima disaster Calamity where a tsunami flooded the Arium and ruined emergency power systems systems and caused three distinct meltdowns and as many as three hydrogen explosions nuclear supporters once a claimed that making nuclear energy is safe but it can be cost prohibitive PG and E said that retrofitting was too expensive so they chose to shut down the Plant completely they determined that it would be more profitable it is reasonable to shut down and replace this is saying a lot about using renewable energy sources economics of nuclear power when even and currently the operating facility is not competitive only nuclear energy is struggling three hours north of Diablo is a competition Canyons gas turbines were decommissioned and a battery storage system in California produces uses so much because Surplus solar power is purchased and put into batteries so that you can sell it afterwards makes Financial sense America's energy is a sophisticated machine and no one-size-fits-all strategy is possible we can see these more clearly as a result costs using a technique called lcoe or levelized cost of electricity the goal of levelized cost is to provide a simple comparison of a figium that indicates the price of power to cover its cost over time the plant will have to charge a fee per unit of energy the equation over the length of its lifetime appears to be like this but to put it simply the amount of expenses over a plant's lifetime is divided by the overall amount of power that the facility will produce and sell during its history as we can see that solar photovoltaic and onshore wind electricity and natural gas with a mixed cycle are the most affordable types of electricity and for this reason in particular they are increasing nuclear's market share in order to regain prominence it must contend with the requirement that the intended natural gas filling be smaller less expensive and safer the reactor ought to be Deployable I.E it can switch on and off by itself it may easily fit into contemporary layouts with a significant amount of renewable energy a challenging issue yet there are folks who are developing potential answers that might increase the viability of nuclear energy we now have a method for obtaining that energy efficiently all we need now is a method to satisfy our evening energy requirements ensuring that people in Authority make smart decisions when it comes to this technology so what's your take on this do you think nuclear energy is economically feasible let me know down in the comments below and check out one of these other videos this has been Mr Singularity and I'll see you on the next one