Lecture Notes on Market Analysis and Price Action

Key Concepts

Weekly High and Liquidity Pools

• Weekly High (Wednesday): Market typically trades down to weekly liquidity pools.
• Market Movements: Market rallies away, creates a double bottom, and trades back to equilibrium price point.
• Order Picking and Fair Value: Market picks up more orders and allows banks to enter at fair value.

Price Action and Rebalancing

• Rebalancing: Market trades down, rebalances, and then drifts, making aggressive runs.
• Pip Swings: Examples of 10, 20, and 30 pip swings were discussed.

Daily Time Frame and Market Structure

• Daily Time Frame: Crucial for formulating ideas about liquidity and market structure.
• Kill Zones: Important for predicting liquidity runs and stop runs.
• Double Bottoms (Candy Land): Market rarely leaves price action like double bottoms untouched.

Fractals and Multiple Time Frames

• Fractals: Same market fractals work on different time frames (1min, 5min, 15min, daily).
• Daily Chart Importance: Most reflective of interbank activities, showing true market directions.

Liquidity and Fair Value

• Liquidity Outside Candles: Look for liquidity outside the visible chart (sell-side liquidity pools).
• Retail vs. Institutional View: Retail traders see support/resistance; institutional traders see liquidity.

Indicators and Market Patterns

• Indicators: Support/resistance, trend lines, moving averages, and other indicators are less effective.
• Fair Value Gaps: Areas of inefficiency and imbalance highlighted.
• Predicting Price: Using daily charts enhances the ability to predict prices.

Bias and Higher Time Frames

• Daily Chart for Bias: Essential for understanding market bias and directions.
• High Time Frame Liquidity: Weekly liquidity pools and how they guide market movements.

Retail vs. Institutional Trading

• Retail Mindset: Retail focuses on visible chart patterns; institutional focuses on underlying liquidity.
• Large Funds and Liquidity Providers: Institutions like banks and large funds drive the market, not retail traders.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports

• COT Reports: Shows relationship between large liquidity pools held by large funds and commercials.
• Market Delivery: Price delivery based on large fund positions and commercials, not retail traders.

Mentorship and Advanced Concepts

• Mentorship Learning: Specifics on market behavior and advanced trading concepts covered in mentorship.
• Real Accumulation and Distribution: Understanding and measuring using tools taught in mentorship.

Weekly Analysis Videos

• Weekly Analysis: Importance of weekly videos in understanding market movements and predictions.