Transcript for:
IC Internship 50 to 75 Pips per Week Model #9: One Shot One Kill

okay folks welcome back this is the IC intership 50 to 75 Pips per week model price action model number nine one shot one kill I appreciate your patience I was trying to get a setup for this model on the Monday week ending December 4th 2020 but it required me to get it on Tuesday so uh we're looking at a example inside of this trade plan I usually I prompt you that to look for your own which you'll still be prompted to look for your own with this one but I included a real world example an execution you can find on my YouTube channel okay ICT price action model number 9 50 to 75 Pips per week trade plan one shot one kill model like always there's five stages to every trade plan development from preparation opportunity Discovery trade planning trade execution and trade management all right so preparation obviously we're going to be noting all medium and high impact events for the markets that you're going to be following you're going to study the events on the week to come and consider how the current market structure and the calendar events may suggest a specific weekly profile for that week's range now a slight twist here on if IPA okay I'm ringing in the weekly chart so in this case we're looking at the preparation stage and we're going to be determining the IPA data range of the last 20 weeks so we're replacing days with weeks note the highest high and the lowest low in the past 20 weeks this is your current dealing range now we're looking at a intermediate [Music] term time Horizon so it's going to give us a lot more predictive nature to where price is going to draw on an Institutional level not intraday but on a larger macro scale so we're going to be looking at 20 weeks ago and in the highest high and the lowest low of that range is going to be Salient for this model inside this dealing range we will look for the next draw in liquidity where is Price likely to trade to next below which old low above which old high we look for a PD array in the direction of the weekly range bias now you have the benefit of having the archives and my commentaries and you'll see that we were looking for bullish euro dollar bearish dollar at the time of this trade PL presentation so it's not like I'm cherry-picking I'm not trying to talk about something in conceptual form only and using hindsight I actually used this model for an example and shared it with the public on YouTube we anticipate price to move to a PD array that would support our weekly bias on a day and news release found on the economic calendar for the current or next trading week this volatility injection is what we wait for this would be a run based on a low resistance liquidity run condition opportunity Discovery now in this chart here I'm showing you two ranges or two rectangles and when I look get one shot one kill my preference is 50 to 75 Pips now I'm not trying to get my full entry to exit at 75 maximum Pips that's not it's not what I try to do but you can graduate to that if you want that to be your model but I like to look for easy 50 Pips so half a penny move is basically my one shot one kill so we're going to be looking for Price action with that range in mind 50 to 75 Pips and we look at how the Wings outline where potential runs on Old highs and old lows would frame 50 to 75 Pips so we look for 50 to 75 Pips that would enable a run to buy side liquidity when bullish institution order flow is present or Target the sells side liquidity when the bearish institutional order flow is present trade planning when the market is poised to decline we want to look for a converg of both manipulation and price opposite to our trade bias at a time the economic calendar suggests a volatility injection would likely unfold we will short premium buy side liquidity pools when the market is poised a rally we want to look for a convergence of both manipulation and price opposite to our trade bias at a time the economic calendar suggest a volatility injection will likely unfold we will buy discount sells side liquidity polls trade executions when we are bearish we will anticipate a 15minute chart optimal trade entry to form inside a retracement higher during London open and or New York open kill zones or a buy stop raid that we will go short when it unfolds when we are bullish we will anticipate a 15-minute chart optimal trade entry to form inside of a retracement lower during London open and or new New York open kill zones or a cell stop raid that we will go long when it unfolds short trade management when we are entering a short we will short at the market with our demo account we will use the PD array convergence optimal trade entry inside of a Kill Zone as our entry price when using the short Market order when we are entering along we will buy at the market with our demo account we will use the PD array convergence optimal trade entry inside of a Kill Zone as our entry price when using the buy Market order when we're entering a short we will place a limit order to take 50 Pips as our objective on a single position or as an alternative we will use one order to manage the trade idea if you capture a 50 pip objective close 80% of the position and see if the remainder can reach 75 Pips taking partials along the way logical short-term lows when we're entering along we will place a limit order to take 50 Pips as our objective on one single position or alternatively we will use one order to manage the trade idea if you capture a 50 pip objective close 80% of the position and see if the remainder can reach 75 Pips again taking partials at short-term highs along the way stop- Loss Management when we ear in profit 50% of our expected objectives stop loss can be reduced by 25% when we are in profit 75% of our expected objective stop- loss can be reduced by break given in the example on my YouTube channel you actually see me utilize this method money management position size calculation formula position size equals account Equity Time r% ided by stop- loss and Pips position size is the amount of Leverage your trade or trades assume account Equity is the total amount in your trading account R percent is the percent of risk you're willing to take on per trade the difference between the entry price and your stop loss is the number of Pips you will use to divide the result of equity times r% example account Equity of $10,000 risk per trade is 1% or 10,000 * 1% equals $100 so the stock required for the trade is 20 Pips in micr Lots or 1K in leverage each represents 10 cents per pip so if we're using 20 Pips when a stop 10 cents into 20 Pips is $2 per pip $100 divided by $2 per pip allows us to trade with 50 micr Lots per trade or 1% of the account Equity always round down in this example here we're utilizing mini Lots same representation of an account hypothetically at $110,000 1% risk is $100 stop required 20 Pips so in mini Lots 10K each leverage represents $1 per pip so if we're using a trade with a 20 pip stop loss at $1 per mini lot it represents a dollar cost of $20 USD so we have a total risk of $100 that we're allowed to assume with $20 divided into that 100 allows us to have five mini Lots per trade or 1% of the account Equity always r [Music] down and again same instance with hypothetical $10,000 account 1% risk is $0000 and you cannot utilize this framework with a standard lot because it's too much leverage if your demo account takes a loss on a trade and it is the full R perent you assumed drop the r perc by 50% and when the loss is recovered by 50% you are permitted to return to the maximum r% per trade and this example say you took the full loss of $100 the next trade you have to use leverage that allows you to only risk $50 if that trade allows you to make $25 back that will allow you to go back to that full $100 risk if the reduced R per trade assumes a loss reduce the r% by 50% until the previous trade loss is recovered by 50% if you take a series of five winning trades in a row drop your R perc by 50% you're likely to assume a loss eventually and this will build in equity leveling and reduce the likelihood of a large draw down you want a smooth Equity curve that slopes or stair steps higher not Jagged with deep declines real time example all right let's look at the euro dollar and a real execution on this model with the week ending December 4th 2020 now again I'm you to go back into the archives in my commentary section and look at our analysis as we were looking for higher objectives on this pair and lower on the dollar so the conditions were bullish euro dollar and our commentary suggested price could reach out to a fair value Gap in higher time frame charts now the chart to the left here let's zoom in on that this is actually a weekly chart you can see the fair value Gap and the 20we old high that being referenced there so that old high we're going to anticipate and you can see here with the benefit of hindsight now but I want you to remember that this was outlined in commentary in terms of bias where I was suggesting you turn your attention to for euro dollar it was bullish so this is the at present on the 2nd of December 2020 at the time of this recording so we're seeing what the weekly range looks at the moment it might change it might expand even more it doesn't matter all we're doing is looking for this weekly range to expand okay if that expands it gives us probability that our bullishness on intraday charts or short-term trading should allow us the ability to find and harvest a setup that is bullish so we looking for a run above that 20 we old high for buy side liquidity so we have bullish bias on the weekly range expansion so we're expecting that and now we have to look at the economic calendar so we're going to look inside this area of price action and we're going to go down to a daily chart so it just so happens on Tuesday December 1st 2020 bullish range expansion anticipated the economic calendar suggested that we would have a high impact news event with the FED share speaking at 10:00 a.m. New York local time this is what the chart looked like on on a individual daily basis so the next candle I'm forecasting a run higher so I'm looking for what a day trade and I'm looking for the likelihood of 50 to 75 Pips using the lowend 50 Pips so on December 1st you can see here Tuesday December 1st the market creates a impulse lay higher and then it retraces it creates an optimal trade entry going into the New York session so during New York open we have the Fibonacci laid over top of the bodies of the candles so that gives us a more precise area of Entry you can look at the recording that's on my YouTube channel and actually go over the entries and such you can see me executing and you can see the actual prices so that's not important for this example because you can actually watch me trade enter it manage to startop the whole business and hits my limit order the projections on the FIB obviously can be forecasted to the tune of 50 Pips or 75 Pips but because I just want certain amounts of the content that I have as education only making its way to YouTube I used the lower threshold and I didn't do a whole lot of annotations in the chart I just made it very simple with optimal trade entry which is what we're using here because that was the model I used in real time on the 1st of December so the market allows me to get 50 Pips and I took scaled out logical exits as the market made higher runs above premium arrays so going back to this range here this is what it looked like on the daily and then ultimately we had that explosion here one euro dollar now in the video obviously I'm holding back what would draw attention to these PD arrays I just use a very shortterm swing high in drawing Buy sell liquidity in reference to that but using this model here it allows for a lot larger magnitude in terms of scaled out profits or ultimately maybe even more than 75 Pips for one shot one kill folks welcome back this is price action model number nine algorithm lecture and discussion this is a one shot one kill model and it is specifically dealing with stocking 50 to 75 Pips per week and again there's no necessity for me to go through all the the rules and things that go along with the trading plan the model that's already been covered and I kind of like want to give you some ideas on how I personally approach this and how I use it preferably I want to look for the weekly range expansion I'm going to try to get a feel for that and if I can uh trust the higher time frame bias but there is many times you're going to find that waiting and seeing what the first day of the week trades like it kind of either confirms or negates the idea that you had probably over the weekend or the end of the previous week's analysis and I'm looking for a Monday Tuesday or Wednesday but I'm willing to kind of like give up the Monday because think about the logic I taught 70% of the time Tuesday makes the higher low of the week so if there's a lot of opportunity or odds that Tuesday creates the higher low of the week is it really that big of a deal if you don't take a trade on Monday in my opinion my view is no so I'm willing to give up the Monday's trading for that reason now there are times over the past 30 years that I can look back and say I wish I would have traded on Monday because it created a absolutely stunning high or low of the week and I left a lot of the range on the table because I didn't participate on Monday but it doesn't happen so much that I beat myself up about it or am willing to change my ideal scenario which is wait on Monday use that for Intel and then trade on Tuesday and or Wednesday but I'm looking for you know something to the effect of a optimal trade entry return back into a fair value Gap uh something that gives me a very clear run on liquidity relative equal lows I mean it's going to be like a textbook ICT setup and if I don't have it then I'm just going to do small little scalps and just get my money that way so I'm not worried about forcing this model but I go in with the expectation of looking for it but if again it's say I'm off and I'm not accurate with my analysis and or I miss a move then I'll have to use the smaller short-term Inay approaches to get what I need instead of getting one shot one kill 50 to 75 Pips for that week all right I'm going to use the same example because of model number eight that example is exactly how I would incorporate and utilize one shot one kill I go in I use model number eight and model number nine together so I'll explain as I go but the levels here obviously without having to mention again this is what those two levels are so when we go into lower time frame chart you'll see it the logic is we Consolidated here took out the P stops I don't want to go too much into what I've already discussed in model number eight but the expectation is the weekly range should expand lower given the benefit of the doubt and if you look at the range this low here why this low why not that low you could use that low I like this one because this is where the energetic price run starts for this swing all that to the high here okay you would measure that from low to high to get your range equilibrium okay and it would cause us to be interested in these relative equal lows obviously with the benefit of height you can see what it is here but we're going to go into the idea of one shot one kill in concert with model number eight all right and here's the five minute chart again all the business with the S&T Divergence really qualifying this as decidedly weak because dollar was able to make a lower low where cable was unwilling to make a higher high Our Fair Value Gap optimal trade entry several lowers of sell side been taken and also with the logic behind the hourly b side liquidity pool has been taken and the old imbalance in the form of a CBI has kept price at Bay and couldn't go any higher so we're likely to see downside expansion on the weekly candle I.E possible conditions for one shot one kill 50 to 75 Pips so we would go into it with that framework initially so on a 5 minute chart all the business that's been done on the model number eight which is the 6% per month like a bread and butter type setup every single one of my one shot one kill trades I'm trying to do this type of scenario I want to do a separate trade where I'm only trying to get what would be described as model number eight it's a complete trade all together by itself its own individual order so if I'm going to take a trade using this fair value Gap using this as a stop I'm going to place two limit orders one is a sell limit order just above this candle's high with a stop loss just above here one or two pipets and I'm going to be looking for either 5 10 15 20 Pips below this low here this individual trade which is essentially model number eight I'm going to take first partial profit at that low then I'll take it at 10 Pips below that and then I'll let the remaining portion fill on a limit if I can get it once this low is taken out I'm rolling the stop down just to break even the one shot one kill is I'm looking for a scenario that lends a objective that's down here further but what if I'm wrong the model number eight orders take care of that for me so I don't have to take off anything on my second order which is a repeat of the same order I used for model number Eight's logic so in other words if I'm risking 1% okay which is what I was teaching in model number eight if I'm going to risk 2% cuz I W one shot one kill 2% would be 1% applied to the smaller setup that wants to take profit aggressively early the second one will be a duplicate entry and stop with 1% so a total risk of what 2% 2% of equity I'm not going to take anything off below this low I'm going to standard deviation this run from here to here and project that down and I want to take first partial at one standard deviation between this low and this High basically this is a measured move I would take one partial off there then I would take another one at one and a half and then I would look to see if I can get a fill on that old relative equal low on the hourly chart so one order would be framed like this this is like model number eight so I'm doing two orders for one shot one kill this is how I'm able to really jack up these accounts really quick because I'm doing multiple orders and I'm trying to get the most juice out of each one this one here is the best that's going to give me on the smallest portion of the trade first profit comes off here second one is 510 Pips below which would be 12550 and then we'll see whatever I get which is the smallest portion always hitting the limit because I'm paying that position as it offers opportunity to do so so it kind of quickly removes risk and Bank rolls the equity curve in the account that's how you see these parabolic runs in my examples where I'm taking accounts and I'm running them up real quick no mt4 serers required okay it's math and it's technical analysis inconsistency in three decades experience but I'm doing this here I'm doing one order like this and then I'm applying a second order that looks very similar to everything else except for I'm not trying to take a profit until I'm one standard deviation of the range from this low up to the optimal trade entry or everybody Gap High projected down so I'm focusing on these relative equal lows here because if I do that I'm using this low to this high this is equilibrium so if I'm expecting this to go down and the weekly range to expand and I'm trying to get as much bang for my buck and not just do a 6% return which I'm already doing that anyway by taking a tree with 1% but the second order I'm doing with 1% risk I'm aiming for these relative equal lows because it's a discount Market relative to the low to high and Below equilibrium in a discount Market we have this juicy little cells side liquidity pole so tagging that level there that's what I'm looking for I'm looking for a reach into that below this low here or in here now if you have a setup like this this is something I do I haven't taught this anywhere else in the mentorship because we're charter members now if I have this idea like this I have a low and a higher low here what I'll do is I'll take the range difference between that low and that high right between the middle of that that's where my order is going to be for a limit exactly right there I'm not fluffing it up for any kind of spread I'm literally putting it between this low and this High 50% of that that's where my limit order would reside I don't need it to go below that low okay so obviously you can see it does do that but I've had many times in Forex especially with uh fxcm which is a garbage broker in my opinion kick dirt in its face every time I get a chance to bring them up that broker many times would deny me on my limit order because I would have it just below here and they wouldn't let me do it because they're using in-house liquidity pools and they have the benefit of doing that so one of the things I did to kind of like beat that game was I would use the midpoint between the two lows split it in half that's where my limit order would be okay so put that in your notes you can use that I think it'll serve you well so with that logic the second order now again this is in entirely separate order than that what was used for model number eight model number eight logic is being applied with one trade one order okay the risk is the same for the second order but I'm not taking profit off until I get this range here to here duplicated to the downside so first partial profit would be down here then to equilibrium that's what this level was here and then the old low is sweeping down here and I'm splitting which would be essentially probably in this area here that level would be hit for my hypothetical limit order between the relative equal lows if it is a really close to one another equal low or relative equal low then I'll just put it just at or one pip at below the relative equal lows so that way it's really building in the idea that the limit order can fill it also this second order okay this is the one I'm going to try to pyramid with if it permits me the opportunity to do so I did a discussion on the model 6 and S Universal model and I talked about how if the range permits me to do two stages of accumulation or distribution if I get that type of scenario in price action those are the conditions I look for for pyramiding if I don't have it then obviously I can't do it so for more Logic on that go back to model number seven I think I did that in the lecture on the algorithmic theory talking about where and how I do the pyramiding for pyramiding I would use the second order here which has the one shot one kill I would look for new entries anytime it would offer me one as long as I don't get below the equilibrium I can take more entries as as long as we're above equilibrium in other words we're Above This level here okay as long as we have not traded down to that level I don't care if it's 10 Pips above it if it gives me an opportunity to put more on I will because it's going to likely sweep through that that's what my expectation is so as long as we're above if I'm shorting above the equilibrium on the framework that's used for the trade I will pyramid so what does that look like well if I did 1% up here whatever that leverage would be on a $5,000 account which would be $50 risk it would yield me if I did no pyramiding whatsoever and no partials taken off it would be about 14 almost 14 and a half% return on the second order now mind you the other order the first one because there's duplicate orders being placed here it would be around 20% return on just one move with no pyramiding no partials but if I take the other one off as I mentioned and then the second order is managed where I'm taking first partial after one standard deviation of this range here projected down first partial how much would I take off I'm going to leave that open for your own determination I don't want to kind of give you a hard and fast rule for how much because that's always going to be a experience thing so general rules and principles how can you look at it um take half off cuz that gives you room for two partials at 25% of the remaining balance for the next partial or second partial and then let the third remaining 25% of the trade go to limit order okay if I'm not going to be doing a lot of partials okay and I have a lot of convictions that I think we're going to get down below that equilibrium I won't take any partials at all I'll be looking to maximize and add to it so in here we don't have anything here we have immediate rebalance here that would be an area where I would add half of whatever I Ed for leverage to get in the entry here with no partials yet I would go in and do half of whatever I used for the second order I would add that as another short and my stop loss would be just above the Gap here because I wouldn't expect that to be filled and then as it rode lower this one here where it comes back up we went below equilibrium I could not add anymore so it would give me just basically one opportunity to Pyramid there and that's really right to the Brass tax simple straight to the point no beating around the bush get to the point ICT this is it but notice how I could not explain this to you if you just started with month one or if you just went halfway through the core content you don't have enough behind you you might think you do some of you have a high opinion of yourselves and you think you're way more intelligent than you really are but when it comes to these markets I'm still an infant I'm learning all the time okay and I've been doing it for 30 years you you are never going to master the market the Market's never going to allow you to master it the only thing you can do is Master yourself and how you're going to engage it so don't let a false sense of intellect or high opinion of yourself think you can look at this and say well you could have saved me a lot of time by just saying it like this you don't realize and you're discounting an enormous amount of exposure time lectures examples like you've seen a lot and you can't discount that so a perfect example of that is look at the free community okay the free community I have taught exclusive lessons on bias and because they have not sat down and watched how I do every single week with you all here I outline where I think the Market's going to go and we look and see how price delivers relative to time of day and day of week and it delivers generally within the scope of what I'm looking for that's how you learn bias they want a give me one sentence twep rule and it always repeats the same way and I don't have to think about it that's what some of you are going to think about where we are right now as charter members you're going to think well this could have been cond condensed into a you know five-part series and been done with it no no because you don't have any idea what it's like to navigate through all the asset classes and how the quarterly shifts and seasonal Tendencies Sometimes they come in sometimes they don't uh look at what happened with Co I mean all those things had a major impact look at what they've done since the co crap it's all kinds of stuff so you're getting curveballs throwing it all the time and if anybody in here seems to believe that they could have learned all this stuff in just a few short lessons you are lying to yourself and there's absolutely no way you could have done that okay because there's too many variables the variables are so enormous and that's why I'm I force the decision on you on how you're going to trade it because each one of you have these strong opinions about the way you interpret price they may or not be correct but you have those individual characteristics that you're bringing to the table as a Trader I'm cognizant of that so I give room for that like anybody that would be a reasonable educator I give you the freedom and flexibility to choose how it is that you're going to trade but I give you rules that are hard and fast when and where applicable and for the answer that I get all the time how am I running up these accounts and how am I doing this and how am I doing that when I tell you I'm using mentorship this is what I'm doing okay only when I'm buying and selling up and down up and down up and down that's an enigma and I'm not going to teach that and you all know that but you don't need that you don't need that at all my son's not even trading with Enigma and he's doing in my opinion doing very very well for his first month so let that be a encouragement to you so hopefully you found this one sightful until next time be safe