Breaking into My Own House

Incident Summary

• Late night during Montreal winter (−40°C or −40°F)
• Had visited friend Jeff, forgot keys inside
• Considered locksmith, but due to early flight to Europe: broke basement window to get in

Stress and Cognitive Effects

• Neuroscientist: cortisol release under stress
  • Raises heart rate, modulates adrenaline, clouds thinking
• Next morning: woke up stressed, forgot passport, raced back home from airport, missed my seat
• Considered putting systems in place to avoid future pitfalls

Concept of Prospective Hindsight

• Discussed with Nobel Prize-winner Danny Kahneman
• Known as pre-mortem (from Gary Klein)
• Analogy to postmortem but for anticipating future problems

Pre-mortem Strategies

Home Organization

• Designate places for easily lost items:
  • Keys: Hook by the door/decorative bowl
  • Passport: Specific drawer
  • Glasses: Particular table

Travel Preparations

• Take photos of important documents (credit cards, passport) and send them to the cloud

Medical Decision-Making

• Recognize that stress impacts cognitive function (cortisol release)
• Ask for number needed to treat (NNT) statistic before taking actions like prescription drugs
  • Example: High cholesterol and statins
  • NNT = 300 for statins
  • 5% have side effects
  • Analyze if benefits outweigh risks (15:1 ratio of harm to benefit)
  • Medical ethics and informed consent
• For surgeries, similar logic applies (example: prostate removal, NNT = 49, 50% side effects)

Quality of Life Considerations

• Discuss preferences regarding life length vs. quality
• Think about potential future stress and frame discussions accordingly

Evolutionary Aspect

• Stress impacts include system shutdowns (e.g., digestion, libido, immune system)
• Need for rational, logical thinking preparations in advance for decision-making

Conclusion

• Acknowledge human flaws and failures
• Systems to minimize damage from failures

Personal Example

• Installed combination lock with key after returning from Europe
• Still working on overall organization gradually